Not long into the Harper mandate, it was evident that the “phoney war” was on. The Tories would repeatedly throw down the election gauntlet and the Dion Liberals would blink, and blink and blink again.
The Conservatives were generous in identifying legislation as matters of confidence and Canada was almost perpetually on the brink of a federal election.
Liberal parliamentary contortions in the House of Commons have kept the Harper Conservative government alive longer than many expected. An outside look at the pattern of behaviour might lead one to conclude that the Conservatives have a strong upper hand.
A look at the polling, however, shows a political reality different from the dynamic in the House of Commons.
The Nanos Research/Sun Media federal political tracking has consistently shown the Conservatives and the Liberals in a tight race. Harper does have an advantage as to who Canadians think would make the best PM but a significant number of Canadians are parking with unsure and none of the above.
Considering the Conservatives have thrown everything including the kitchen sink at the Liberals and they are still mired in a dead heat must make one pause. If attacks ads, tax cuts, and being recognized as a competent and a solid government by average Canadians isn’t enough to win support for the Conservatives, what will?
It would seem that the Conservatives have still not shed the attitude or tone of an opposition party. They have been masterful in their daily tactics and attacks but more than two years into their mandate, the average Canadian would likely be hard pressed to describe what a Stephen Harper Canada would look like in ten years.
What seems to be missing is the ability to pull those policy threads together into a politically consumable, positive and succinct vision for Canada. Until that emerges, even with the tough election talk, the Conservatives going into an election will be vulnerable. Polling during the last election showed that mistrust of the Liberals propelled the Conservatives into power but in the next federal election the Conservatives will have a record to defend.
Also of note, in the province of Quebec where the mistrust of the Liberals was most intense, the Conservatives made a breakthrough. However, this fall season may not necessarily bring fair political weather for the Harper government. If the Bernier affair flares up in the fall in committee, it may spell trouble for the Tories in Quebec. Add the Elections Canada campaign spending investigation and the Cadman tapes to the mix and there are many fires for Harper to fight.
One advantage Harper does have is the current political narrative on Liberal Leader Stephane Dion. The polls have Dion trailing Harper personally, the Conservatives have been relentless in their attacks and the Green Shift plan has not yet yielded a bounce in the polls.
Even for Canadians who are open to the environmental message, the Green Shift sounds very much like a tax plan. It’s not surprising the Conservatives have gone on the tax attack and undermined the ability of the Dion Liberals to launch an aspirational environmental message.
Because a sense of urgency has not been conveyed to voters, staking Liberal fortunes on the environment as an election winner is a risky strategy.
So - there you have it. Both Harper and Dion face greater risks than their rhetoric suggests. The phoney war and tough talk will continue, but a reasoned quiet look at the numbers tells a different story.
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
To sound like a broken record, elections are LOST and rarely won. So it is up to... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 21 Jul 05:53
I must agree with Nik on the present situation as it present it self.As a Conser... more
Jan from Whitby (Ontario) 21 Jul 06:51
It is easy to jump on board and criticize Harper and the Conservative government... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 21 Jul 08:11
Larryl and TPQ------I believe I can answer you both as your themes are similar.A... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 21 Jul 19:04
Actually - I think most people just don't check this site much any more. :) Rec... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 12 Aug 15:18
Tom Good this is a very good commentary, you have put it very clearly. ... more
Jan from Whitby (Ontario) 21 Jul 06:53
Comments
dbeauvais
It's only july and Hopefully Dion and company can explain the Green shift a bit better before the house resumes.It's a complicated plan on the surface but if delivered strongly enough and correctly this thing will fly and fly well. My sense on the street is that many people are ready to make some sort of commitment to climate change.After a visit to rural ontario for two weeks I sense also that people are a bit bewildered with the harper government, and quite frankly a little worried. It seems some think that the Liberals may not been as bad after all in the roll of the Devil we knew as opposed to the devil we didn't. After two years of Harper people are still not able to firmly stand behind this guy and I think for very good reason.
[updated Mon Jul 21 02:28:34 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 02:28
35 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
To sound like a broken record, elections are LOST and rarely won. So it is up to Harper to lose and how is he going to do that???? I would suggest on the broad "look", the Conservatives have painted themselves as rather self-righteous while not recognizing the diversity that makes up Canada. I even wonder, when the Conservative percentages do not move up, if this government is truely Conservative and representing the traditional values of the broader Conservative base. To govern for any length of time, the conservatives have to govern as liberal-Conservatives but they are giving different signals that are not prompting the broarder electorate of Canada to rally "to the cause". Nik, you suggest the changing climate in Quebec, Elections Canada case, Cadman case and I would add the Order of Canada for Morgentaler and the indifference to the plight of Canadians abroad with the Brenda Martins case and now Omar Khadr imprisonment in the infamous Guantanamo Bay.
The major energy of this government seems to be directed to winning power and holding power and almost not listening to parliament. The rationale of Conservatism has always been limited government, lower taxes and defending personal liberties for ALL------some have received a good first step but have the conservatives adopted a major goal to destroy the Liberals, polarize the electorate and hoping they will end up with a larger share come the election in 15 months time ? I would say that has great "backfire" potential. In BC we have a government claiming the Liberal colours and name but they are Conservative. In Ottawa, we have a government claiming the Conservative colours and name but are they something else ????
I believe the Conservatives must show they can properly manage big government and the nonsense in the House suggests something is to be desired. They must address their traditional roots of small business and not allow the wealthy to "buy" government, they must recognize the diversity in their own party and within the country of Canada. They stand for family values without dredging up contentious social issues, they should stand for health care, address the tax code, education and they should stand for principle and not how to defeat the Liberals. I am not holding my breath ! ! !
[updated Mon Jul 21 05:53:31 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 05:53
154 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Jan from Whitby
I must agree with Nik on the present situation as it present it self.As a Conservative I'm a bit fearfull that if there is not a big shift in Conservative behaviour the next election can very well turn out in favour of a Liberal minority, and were are we then?
[updated Mon Jul 21 06:51:30 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 06:51
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
It is easy to jump on board and criticize Harper and the Conservative government for not having a vision or capturing the public's imagination.
However, let's remember that the Liberal party has been in power for 70 of the last 100 years. They have governed Canada by buying peoples' votes with their own money and have created a country where citizens are not naturally inclined to take personal responsibility but instead want cradle to grave government services. In other words a left leaning socialist society. The Liberals with their tax and spend policies have been more than happy to oblige.
Over the years various Liberal governments have done some good things on the social front. However, many programs were ill conceived, polyanna in nature and infringed on provincial jurisdiction and subsequently turned into a waste of taxpayers money. However, the electorate gave them credit for trying. In turn the Liberal party with their effective spin machine developed a brand which is still a powerful force in Canadian politics.
So Harper is up against 3 left leaning political parties in the House of Commons and a Liberal dominated Senate. He has had much difficulty in getting his agenda through because the opposition parties are intent with the help of the Senate to ensure the Conservatives have little by way of accomplishment to take to the people in the next election. Critics say he should have been more concilliatory in negotiating with the opposition parties. How can you be more concilliatory when the opposition want to gut virtually every piece of legislation and make it into their own as if they were the government?
Having said that the Conservatives who have reason to be wary of the left leaning media in this country have adopted a communications strategy which is misguided and down right silly. In a day and age of instant communications to not aggressively explain its positions in cogent and believable terms is virtual political suicide.
Initially the media and the opposition parties sat by waiting their opportunity. That opportunity came when the government did not manage the faux scandals well and the media and the opposition parties pounced with daily outrageous claims, columns, biased headlines and negative spin. All the while the Conservatives stayed virtually silent.
Unless Harper can change his perceived image, improve the communications strategy and make reasonable nice with the media he will have to fight not only the oppostion parties in the next election but the electronic and print media who are anxious to see the Liberals returned to power.
The one gift the Liberal party has given Mr. Harper and it really is his ace up his sleeve and that is electing Stephane Dion as leader of the Liberal party.
Everybody suggests it was the attack ads which defined Dion after becoming leader. I reject that notion. I believe they were the catalyst but Dion through his words and actions since becoming leader that has reinforced the notion that he is weak. That is why the electorate accepted the Conservative attack ads a reflection of Dion. If the opposite were true the ads would not have worked.
So Canadians will have an option come the next election; Harper or Dion. Neither of them are going anywhere in the near term. This idea that a leader needs to be cuddly and warm making us all feel good is nice to have but I will take competence over those characteristics. We are electing a leader not a beauty pageant contestant and Canadians need to assess the measure of each man, look at the policies and make an informed decision come the next election.
[updated Mon Jul 21 08:11:49 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 08:11
22 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bernie
There is too much emphasis placed on the personality of the lead actors. If we put our trust in person of the leader we will be disappointed. All persons are flawed and politicians, especially leading ones, are particularly afflicted. If we vote for them because they are 'leaders' then we get what we deserve.
We should look only to their policies, and not the policies they espouse, but the ones they are likely to follow once they get in, especially if they get a majority. The policies they employ , we have to glean from our own observations, picking out their true intentions from their hidden agendas, hints from their previous writings and speeches, coupled with those, whom you know, who have had closer contact and whom you have trust in.
I trust that Elizabeth May's intentions are good, but there's no hope of becoming PM or having a important impact on the political scene as yet.
Jack Layton also has no chance of forming governmant but if he played his cards right could possibly hold the balance of power. He hasn't shown that he has what it takes to position his party forward enough to make a significant contribution. He has some good policies but he doesn't sell them.
That leaves the other two parties. I have yet to make a firm decision on the Liberals or the road they plan to take us on. Their problem is, as I see it, that they haven't confidence in their own plan. They are afraid to vigorously promote their agenda. It appears that they are afraid that the public will not accept, which means to me that they are more concerned about their party image than about Canadians at large.. That`s a mistake. If they have a good agenda and it`s paralell with Canadians wishes they will have no problem getting accepted. Forget themselves and their party and think of Canadians would be my advice to them.
To say that`s impossible is nonsense, that Canada is made up of diverse regions.
That argument would also follow for provinces, for municipalities, for heavens sake, even within families. That doesn`t preclude good governance.
My hestitancy, in knowing where those other parties stand or where they plan to go, ceases when it come to this present Conservative party. I have no doubts about Harper`s intentions and how he would try to impliment them if he were to receive a majority.
It is a corporate agenda and he will do what he can to foster that agenda to the benefit of the corporate world and to the detriment of Canadian citizens. He has no interest in what the people want. Because he is in a minority position he teases the public with little tidbits to give the appearance being `with the people`; just keep them content until he finds some way to sneak through with a majority.
His enthusiasm for proting that agenda may be a liitle curtailed with the election of a new administration in the US in November.
I don`t believe the Canadian voters will ever give him a majority.
[updated Mon Jul 21 08:16:48 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 08:16
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MRM
While I agree with the general premise of the article I do not agree with some the conclusions arrived at within it. First of all the statement that:
“Considering the Conservatives have thrown everything including the kitchen sink at the Liberals and they are still mired in a dead heat must make one pause.”
From where I am viewing things it is the Liberals who have “thrown everything” at the Tories by manufacturing scandal after phony scandal and they cannot get over minority territory in the polls. I believe given the events of the past year for the Tories to have a slight lead in the polls is a small miracle and a testament to just how much Canadians dislike Dion and distrust the Liberals.
It also unfair to judge the Tories on the bar that:
“the average Canadian would likely be hard pressed to describe what a Stephen Harper Canada would look like in ten years”
I would be willing to bet that the average voter would be hard pressed to describe what a Dion Canada would look like in ten years either or a Martin or Chrétien government for that matter. The truth is while political pundits spend a good deal of time on these types of academic questions the average Canadian does not and certainly does not determine how they will vote based the answer to them.
Another assumption that I think is incorrect is that the so called Bernier affair will hurt the Tories in Quebec. All indications in the press and polls are that it has not and likely will not. I also think that the Cadman affair will be over by the Fall and if it wraps up with a big payout and public apology for the Liberals it will hurt them, not the Tories. As for the EC situation, my sense is that it will quietly go away and the Tories will eat the cost of the ads? Only assumptions but just as likely to happen as any other assumptions made on these issues.
The bottom line in an election for me is the Dion factor. I do not believe that Canadians have confidence in him. In English Canada he is viewed as somewhat of a bumbling professor and he remains highly distrusted in Quebec. So once that large undecided bloc steps into the voting booth I predict that vast majority of them will vote Harper or at least anything but Dion.
[updated Mon Jul 21 09:05:16 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 09:05
52 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Graham Watt
the Conservative's dilemma may be that tactics alone, in love or politics are never enough to win a fickle heart. And when the tactics are largely borrowed from a neighbour, they seem manufactured rather than from original thinking. As someone said, "if you can fake sincerity, you've got it made". Might this explain the reticence of Canadians largely to give Stephen Harper leave to govern with a majority? As an example, Stephane Dion, after months of surviving using the Ali rope-a-dope technique, came out with a wild roundhouse Green Shift swing, which for all its complexity and vulnerability, had a ring of honesty to it. Dion's main problem is not Stephen Harper, but shaking the media in general from its predilection for typecasting political leaders without constant re-evaluation. Again, as in love, the daring and risky maneuvre often wins the fickle heart because it is closer to honesty than the borrowed tactic.
[updated Mon Jul 21 10:59:16 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 10:59
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
So far the general malaise with the two major parties has not translated into any sustained move to a third. The Greens enjoyed a brief burst of double digit popularity that now seems to be dissapating somewhat. The Bloq is stalled pretty much at or below average Historical values. Some polls have shown the NDP up a tick or two, but certainly not within breakthrough range. (IMO the NDP would need to get around 23 to 25% in order to elect as many MP's that the percentage of votes =the % of MPs (ie: 25% of the vote = 77 MPs). Even to elect 50+ they would need over 21%. 17.4% last election only got them 30.
The conservatives carry the baggage of an unloved leader who is viewed as manipulative and humourless. Even when he smiles it appears forced. They also carry the baggage of a weak caucus, and an accident prone cabinet.
The Liberals have not fully recovered from Adscam, and Dion's failure to stand up to the Conservatives appears to voters to be cowardly. The Green Shift has been successfully if dishonestly branded as a money grab rather than a tool to fight GHG. In fact Dion's failure to establish emission reduction goals make this criticism all too believable.
I will watch with interest the upcoming by-elections at least one of which (Westmount) must be called this week. I would assume that both Quebec by-elections will be called for the same day. The Ontario seat needn't be called until January, and may or may not be included.
[updated Mon Jul 21 15:59:10 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 15:59
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
The Green Shaft Plan is a Tax Grab Plan and will do little to reduce GHG. Dion has abandoned the Kyoto Agreement he insisted Harper follow and has not set any GHG reduction targets. This Plan will be the largest government imposed shift in wealth from the west to central Canada in the country's history. It is shameful!!
[updated Mon Jul 21 18:26:38 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 18:26
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
True North
The problem I have with Harper is that I do not know whether he really believes what he is saying and acting upon or is it just part of his strategy to gain that which he most wants - a majority in the next election. Examples: 1. Does he really believe that the Quebecois should constitute a nation or was it just a great strategic move to gain the vote of the Quebeckers and he was really indifferent whether they constituted a nation or not. 2. Harper's sudden conversion to recognizing the reality of climate change in December 2006 is most suspicious. Was his conversion based on a reading of the polls on what Canadians were most concerned about or was it a genuine turn-around? Harper comes across as a cold, calculating individual, sometimes angry, one too clever by half and that makes me most uncomfortable. I cannot relate to him.
In addition, the attack ads of the Conservatives do not endear me to the party and to Harper for these ads must have had his stamp of approval. To make fun of Dion and portray him as a cartoonish character is cheap politics and does nothing to engage Canadians in serious debate on the issues facing Canada; they rather obfuscate and derail
people from thinking about the real issues. Dion has consistently said that he will not take part in negative politics. I fully support him in that strategy; it is honest politics and that is what I look for.
True North
[updated Mon Jul 21 20:49:58 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 20:49
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gerry l
Stephen Harper heads a government in trouble. Rolling in cash used to define it's main rival, in control of the levers of power for two years and controlling the nation's agenda for this period have yielded nothing in terms of political advancement - indeed, Conservatives have less popularity today than the party achiveved during the 2006 election.
The conclusion is inescapable: Voters turfed the Liberals into a time-out and elected Harper as caretaker of a minority until appropriate penace was served. This being accomplished, the Liberals are poised again to assume their historical role as the inevitable governing party with Tories reverting to their traditional function as responsible opposition.
The Canadian political universe unfolds as it always has.
[updated Mon Jul 21 23:01:18 -0400 2008]
21 Jul 23:01
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Nigel
Hi Nick;
I agree with you on most of this, but when you say the Conservatives have no vision for the future, I think you miss the point. They do have a long-established one...NO GOVERNMENT WHEREVEVER POSSIBLE. Whether with nuclear safety, the new hands-off CRTC, the abandonment of Canadians in prisons abroad, their policy is clear: LITTLE OR NO GOVERNMENT IS GOOD GOVERNMENT. While they are in power, and Dion fiddles, the Tories are slashing and burning like there is no tomorrow, so we can be left with a fait accompli...that is why, even in Quebec, the NDP is gaining astonishing credibility...including two major labour leaders in the East End of Montreal who might normally have gone to the Bloc but haven't.
Nigel
nigelGspencer@hotmail.com
[updated Tue Jul 22 08:00:43 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 08:00
48 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Nigel
Without undue optimism, it would be a mistake to count the NDP out as a rising, long-term force of opposition, as time increasingly exposes the Emperors Harper and Dion's new clothes for what they really are.
[updated Tue Jul 22 08:06:26 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 08:06
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Nigel, Dream on. Jack Layton is such a failure he won't even cover hs tracsk from the ast election let alone grow his number of seats. His tacit support of Harper has been nothing short of despicable for a left winger like that. He thought he could bring Dion down by letting harper play his dirty tricks games and its starting to backfire on both him and Harper.
[updated Tue Jul 22 08:16:30 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 08:16
Nigel
It might help if I knew what the hell you were talking about! Do you?
[updated Tue Jul 22 09:41:18 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 09:41
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Layton was sitting back waitng for Dion to call non confidence on several issues and then he was going to announce his support for the government to embarrass the Libs. They saw through that and now have good war material to use on Layton in an election.
[updated Tue Jul 22 09:51:39 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 09:51
Nigel
Interesting speculation, TPQ. I'm afraid I don't have your crystal ball or your direct feed into Layton's thought processes.
[updated Tue Jul 22 10:04:22 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 10:04
Foxer
I'm thinking nigel is more right than wrong here.
Layton is in a bit of a unique position, and the fact is he's actually an honest politican (as far as politicians go). I don't think people think of him has having backed down from the CPC, that's for sure.
The problem for layton is that too many people don't believe he will be in a position to do much. Most ndp'ers i see think if he's "lucky" he'll "hold the balance of power". Wrong attitude. He's got to come out in this election and convince people he can form the opposition, and will do a better job that the libs did. (not hard to achieve, all he has to do is show up for votes :) )
If canadians start to view the ndp as someone who might actually be in a position of power, Layton might well shock everyone and write a new chapter in canadian history.
I don't think there's much doubt that in many ways layton would make a better opposition gov't than the libs. The ndp has proven more willing in the past to seek 'compromise' and look for solutions that both sides can live with - whereas the liberals just say 'no' whenever the CPC says 'yes'.
[updated Tue Jul 22 17:36:53 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 17:36
Nigel
TPQ...
I don't know if you READ my e-mail. I tried to read yours but couldn't
make head nor tail of it.
a) Layton is NOT a "left-winger" (I guess we agree on that.)
b) The Bloc, more than any other party, has been keeping the Tories in power, and now they're in trouble (see the stats)
c) The NDP is slowly, steadily increasing its hard-core (and soft-core) support in Quebec. (stats again)
[updated Tue Jul 22 09:58:55 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 09:58
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The NDP will not elect one member from Quebec in the next election. The leanings they have now are parked votes more than anything else
[updated Tue Jul 22 10:12:17 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 10:12
Foxer
I don't know how you can say the bloc has - dion had several chances to take down the gov't last year and abstained. The election would long be over if dion hadn't chosen to leave the gov't in place.
Mind you - i think realistically that harper would have been just as happy to go to the polls as not to. Waiting sure hasn't hurt him. But Layton could wind up being the big beneficiary out of dion's hesitation - I'm quite sure he'll point out Canadians are better served by an opposition that at least shows up to vote, and that's going to be a serious smak in the face for dion.
[updated Wed Jul 23 21:46:14 -0400 2008]
23 Jul 21:46
Nigel
Yes, I think you're dead-on about time being on the NDP's side. If you look back though, you'll see the Bloc has been (objectively) the Tories' staunchest long-term lifeguard. The NDP needs to hammer this in Quebec, and they aren't. Big mistake.
[updated Thu Jul 24 09:25:12 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 09:25
larryl
nigel. Duceppe and the bloc are still sovereigntists. If they are smart they will support the neo-cons from the west because that will lead to the break up of this country faster than anything else.Most voters don't even know that the N.D.P. started out as a socialist party and has drifted far enough to the right to be Liberals. If we are concerned about electing the opposition rather than the government there is definitely something wrong with our thinking. The opposition can do nothing to stop a majority gov't from doing whatever it chooses to do. If we really want to stop the right from going too far we should not waste our vote on a party that will never form a gov't. The majority in this country has always been and continue to be middle of the road and Liberals governing 80% of the time proves that. Scandals and incompetence have always been part of our history but we now are better informed and turfed the Liberals out when they got caught. I doubt we will ever see the Liberal party on their death bed like the Progressive Conservatives were after Lyin Brain got through his reign of terror. They will be forgiven or our short memories will only remember what the governing party is doing to us now. The paltry $100 million that adscam was about is hardly worth a mention when compared to the $30 billion the Conservatives cost mainly seniors with the flip flop on Income Trusts.
Maybe the voters will remember that when they go the polls . With another $7 billion announcement to-day the campaign seems to have already started Steve will probably call an election before the U.S. goes to the polls. Let's vote for the party that has a chance at getting rid of the neo-cons rather than picking the official opposition.
[updated Thu Jul 24 11:45:31 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 11:45
Foxer
Nigel -
I don't know if it's entirely fair to say the bloc has been the CPC's biggest ally - especially not in recent times. I still would say that falls to the Libs. Like i said, this gov't would have gone to an election already if not for the libs several times over.
But. Having said that the bloc has prevented an election several times. I think if you look closely you'll see why. The fact is - when the CPC is in power seperatist sentiment in the country fades. The cpc does not tend to believe in micro-managing the affairs of provinces, whereas the liberals do. So - when the liberals are in power the bloc's numbers go up. When the CPC is in power the bloc tends to go down - and that means they will lose seats if they call an election. I think it's safe to say for example most people expect them to lose seats if an election were called right now. The cpc takes away their reason for existing, and they want to prolong the term knowing there's always a 'CHANCE' the cpc will screw up and somehow the bloc will be in favour. Or they're waiting till the libs increase in popularity and give them a good 'boogie-man' to scare quebec sovereigntists with.
That hasn't happened, so as far as the bloc is concerned going to the polls now will mean losing power. Obviously they don't like that idea.
In contrast - the ndp tends to do BETTER when the CPC does well. I suspect that when people see a 'right wing' gov't getting into power, those who don't like that want a more 'left wing' opposition to counter it. One of the strongest selling points layton could lay on in the next eleciton is "the CPC will form gov't again, and may get a majority. They have no social conscience. If YOU believe canada NEEDS a social conscience then you need to vote for a party that will actually stand up to the CPC, and will also work with them where possible to keep them in check. Only the NDP has a track record of both'.
That will have a lot of appeal to many voters. Especially if the liberals appear to be sliding in the polls during the election.
I doubt the ndp is afraid to go to the polls right at the moment. :) so obviously they're going to push for an election.
Remember - the NDP did prop up the libs corrupt gov't for a while, till the CPC gained strength. It's pretty natural for parties to avoid elections when they're weak and push for them when they're strong. Tho i will say at least layton did have the nuts to pull the trigger when it obviously wasn't the BEST time for him. You have to admire that. More than we can say for dion.
[updated Thu Jul 24 12:34:11 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 12:34
Foxer
Larryl -
hehehehe - One thing i've noticed with certainty over the last several years, is that whenever someone trots out the phrase 'neo-con' they don't have a clue about politics :) It's the kind of thing people say when they're brainwashed, rather than thinkers. Even a casual example of what the term means would show you that it hardly applies to the CPC. If anything - the CPC is 'neo-liberal'. Freedom and less gov't used to be what the liberals stood for back in the day. Now liberals just push for strong centralized control over all canadians, which is closer to a dictatorship than to true liberalism in the original sense of the word.
And one thing is absolutely the truth - seperatist sentiment in Canada goes DOWN, not UP, when the CPC is in power. The liberals almost destroyed the country - the CPC actually makes federalism stronger.
Which is no surprise - nobody likes to live under a tyranny. Quebec doesn't like being told how to live, neither does the west. And as of about 2000 the atlantics are getting fed up with it too. They all prefer the feds to deal with federal matters only, and leave the provinces to deal with provincial matters. Which is how confederation is supposed to work. We're not a republic, like the US or China.
The NDP did start out as a bit of a socialist group and people do realize that, but they have gained a lot of respect. While not everyone believes in their policies, most people think they're honest, and most people believe in SOME of their ideas.Tommy Douglas is still a household name and well respected.
Also - the ndp have a proven track record of working with gov'ts to make changes to policy. Once in a while even Harper and Layton put down the gloves and say 'ok, lets look at some of the changes you're suggesting'. The liberals never do - they just say 'no' if the cpc says 'yes' and then try to block any legislation.
The NDP also has a history of calling the governing party (be it liberal OR cpc) to task when they do something 'wrong'. If there's some 'monkey business' going on the ndp will tend to call for an investigation and have often been the ones who uncovered the problem. Oh sure, they screw up or go to far once in a while (that's not a naked woman, that's me and my gf on vacation! :) ) but on the whole they're respected.
The liberals are all about cover ups. And heaven knows that they've manufactured 'scandals' whenever possible, not that it ever works. (enjoying that lawsuit dion?)
I notice you trot out the old 'Abandon the NDP and join the libs to help defeat the evil conservatives' line again. :)
I don't know how on earth the NDP folk ever fell for that in the first place - basically the libs think of the ndp as their "female dog" when they need them, then ignore them once in power. I don't think the NDP is going to fall for that this time, it didn't work last time so good. I don't think the NDP is thinking of itself as the liberals' lap dog any more. They are a party on their own merits and really have every right to say to liberal voters "join the ndp and have honest gov't for a change, at least we'll show up and vote if we disagree with something'.
And as to the libs not collapsing - yeah, that's what people said about the PC :) but they were driven into the ground. Largely because kim was arrogant and ignorant and chretien ran a better campaign. This time out - it's of little doubt who the better campaigner is. If the libs start to slide - they could easily slide a long way. And if they are 3rd place or lower - they are toast as a political entity.
The libs have no real chance of getting rid of harper. They can only hold him to a minority - which means nothing considering the libs have let him do what he wants without challenge anyway.
If people don't believe in the CPC, their best choice is to vote NDP. The NDP makes a more effective and honest opposition party. It's always wise to vote for the best choice. If all canadians do that, we'll have a CPC gov't and an effective NDP minority.
This time anyway. I guess if the libs are driven down then sometime in the future we'll see an NDP gov't, the CPC can't rule all the time - they'd become as corrupt as the libs did. But - that's the way it goes. I'd rather see an ndp gov't than a liberal gov't. At least they're clean.
[updated Thu Jul 24 12:56:14 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 12:56
Foxer
Oh - and larryl - just one more thing.
"Steve" can't call an election :) only the opposition can do that. Why do you think dion's been afraid to show up and vote for the last 8 months?
Dion has indicated he'll call an election. But we've heard that many times before, and he hasn't, so we'll have to see. I suspect he'll want to do some more polling in sept, and also see how the by elections go. If the numbers look favorable (or the members in his party that want to be rid of him tell him they do) then he'll probably call one. If not - it'll likely be october 2009.
[updated Thu Jul 24 12:59:49 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 12:59
larryl
know it all. the term neo-con is certainly appropriate for the new{neo} CONservative party of Canada since it has only been a party for 4 years.
When the Progressive Conservative party died at the hands of Lyin Brain
a new{neo} party was created. The most hated politician in our history was at 13% in the polls when he resigned. You blame Campbell but she was just a scape goat so Mulroney would not be blamed for what was sure to happen.
Saying that the C.C.F. was a little socialist is dumbest thing I have seen on this site . The Regina Manifesto in 1933 was the party's platform and they wanted to nationalize key industries and create a welfare state. The party was created out west by a group who believed in co-ops and other forms of socialism . Just a little socialist . As to the honesty of Layton one should look back at his election after becoming leader. A deal was made by the 3 parties to get certain individuals elected and he was one of them.
I am no constitutional expert but I do recall Martin in 04, Chretien in 97 and 01, Mulroney in 88 calling elections. Trudeau called elections when it suited him and he was high in the polls. Steve can and will visit the G.G. and ask her to call an election. She can if she chooses ask the opposition to form a gov't but does not have to and can drop the writ at Steve's request. The opposition knew it would be suicide to force an election that we did not need or want. If he does call an election it will cost him dearly since the voters still don't think we need one.
I have noticed you stopped telling people how uninformed ,dumb or just plain stupid they are . Maybe you took that course in diplomacy I suggested. I am sure you will point out how dumb I am as soon as you read this. I will get back to you when YO HARPER calls the election.
[updated Thu Jul 24 15:04:18 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 15:04
Foxer
I would rather be a know it all than a know nothing.
No - it isn't appropriate to call them 'neo'. Buy a dictionary.
And no - there is nothing 'new' about the conservative party. They didn't call themselves the 'new' conservative party (like the 'new' democrats). They are espousing smaller gov't and more localized control in the provinces. That is a VERY traditional conservative view. And the idea of less regulation and more personal freedoms and choice is actually a very traditional liberal view - but one they abandoned in the 70's. Now it's all about ban this and ban that and we should control everything.. the actual antithesis of liberal thinking in history.
nor does 'neo-conservative' have anything to do with the age of the party. Some Republican gov'ts have been referred to as 'neo conservative' (and in fact that's where the term originates from) and they're a pretty old party.
Btw - the term actually means liberals who have given up on the faulty ideas of social liberalism and have moved to the conservative side of the spectrum. In short - former liberals and people who believed in liberal ideals becoming conservatives. It also refers to a focus on foreign policy - but harper has mostly been concerned about matters at home. Afghanistan is the exception, but the liberals were the ones who sent us there. And it was a liberal lead team that suggested our current course of action, which harper adopted and dion approved of. So... doesn't work there either.
Look it up. It won't hurt you to know what you're talking about.
And no - kimmy was not 'just a scape goat'. In fact, going into the election she was polling just as high as Chretien was.
But she was an arrogant twit. She made statements like 'an election is no time to discuss important issues'. (kinda reminds me of 'do you know how difficult it is to make priorities?) And she pushed ahead with her personal agendas instead of looking at what canadians wanted and needed.
And when she began to slide, people realized she wasn't going to get in and the soft support and undecided fell to Chretien, who ran a much better campaign.
So she went from about 33 percent down to about 18 percent. That left her with two seats.
The similarities between her situation and dion are striking. Both had the stink of corruption following their parties, both made bad policy for personal reasons rather than looking at what canada needs, both were poor campaigners, and both managed to gain control of the leadership not thru good campaigning but rather good internal party politics and 'deals'.
And both face/faced opponents who were much more talented campaigners. Dion has an additional disadvantage, his party is not in power.
I didn't say the ccf was 'a little socialist'. I talked about the NDP. If you can't even be bothered to read was was posted, then you really shouldn't waste your time commenting on it.
And i agree you're no constitutional expert, but you also appear to be a little behind in 'current events'. Harper passed a law with the rather enthusiastic support of the opposition at the time removing his right to call an election. In essence, he DID call an election: for october 2009. He cannot call one now. Only the opposition can call one by saying they have no confidence in the current gov't. That means either a vote of no confidence, or voting down a matter that is a confidence motion, such as a budget.
Why do you think dion was avoiding all those confidence votes? The other parties need the libs to bring down the gov't - the gov't can't call a vote. Dion was afraid of going to a vote because he knew he'd lose.
His situation is just getting worse - either he has to keep abstaining which makes him look more and more stupid or he's got to go to the polls soon. So he's thinking about going this fall - we'll see if he does or if he chickens out. He's pretty desperate, so he might.
But no - harper cannot go to the GG and ask for an election - not without a vote of non-confidence from the other parties behind him. He passed a law forbidding it. The next election WILL be october 2009 unless the opposition forces one before then with a no-confidence vote.
And yes - i've stopped telling people how stupid they are. I've found that it's self-evident enough. Next time - do a little research.
[updated Thu Jul 24 15:29:35 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 15:29
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Foxer, that whole post is pure nonsense. I think larryl has you running for cover
[updated Thu Jul 24 15:46:40 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 15:46
Foxer
Pure nonsense? So... you think harper DID NOT pass a law fixing the election date in 2009?
And you think that 'neo con' refers to the age of the party? :)
Man - no wonder the libs are doing so poorly.
[updated Thu Jul 24 16:17:11 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 16:17
larryl
know it all. Happy to hear you admit you are one. I believe I stated I am not a constitutional expert so if the rules were changed and Harper can not call an election I just learned something which is more than you will ever learn since you know it all already.Your previous statement was that the N.D.P. started out as a little socialist and naming Tommy Douglas sure sounded like you were talking about the C.C.F./N.D.P. as just a little socialist. When Harper wants an early election he will by hook or by crook call one. He can recall parliament at any time and will if he thinks he can win a majority . As I said you have all the answers so why anyone bothers debating with you is beyond comprehension. Let's all just ask Fox for the answer and save our time to watch the Simpsons. Why do you waste your time on this site when you could be out there educating the country on all topics.
Your opinion of the first woman P.M. seems to indicate the stupidity of the Conservative party who chose her as their leader.
You also have a similar opinion of Ms. Keen who was fired by Steve for doing her job.Male chauvinism or you just don't like women.
You commented earlier on how Quebec seperatism flourished because of the Liberals. I guess you forgot about Bouchard who was chosen as the first leader of the Bloc. You remember him when he was Canadian ambassador to France, Secretary of State and then a cabinet minister in Lyin Brain's gov't. Because of the destruction of the P.C.s he became leader of the opposition which you now believe is such an important thing you want a bunch of socialists to get the job. I guess I shouldn't take up too much of your time so you educate the other no nothings on this site. Does your arm get sore patting your self on the back all day.
[updated Thu Jul 24 16:24:27 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 16:24
Foxer
Ahh - again with the insults :) I guess when you feel you're looking stupid, it's your defense mechanism.
The law has nothing to do with the constitution. The constitution hasn't changed.
If i had intended to speak about the CCF, then i'd have mentioned them. Instead, i specifically said the NDP. You do know tommy douglas was an ndp MP right?
And with no knowledge of the constitution OR the law, you feel you can say harper can call an eleciton 'by hook or by crook'. Your problem isn't that you don't know anything, it's that you don't - but still talk about it anyway.
The only way harper can call an election is by a non-confidence vote. That's why he put so many out there. As i said - learn something about it. THEN talk.
He thinks he can win a majority now. That's why he's been gloading poor little dion - if dion goes to the polls, harper wins. If he does not, then dion looks even more cowardly and harper gets him later. win win.
Intelligent people debate me because it's interesting to discuss concepts from a knowledgeable point of view. I have no idea why people who know nothing debate me - i can only assume that they enjoy looking like idiots, or are simply delusional and they're really talking to themselves in a vain attempt to convince themselves the sky isn't blue.
Your lack of basic knowledge isn't my problem. Once again - as soon as it's apparent you don't know what you're talking about, you go on the personal attack front. Which means you're not just uneducated, you're also uncultured. Again - that would be YOUR problem to deal with in life. It's never too late to learn how to be a good thinker or a good man. I can't do it for you.
In a way the PC was stupid to pick Kim, as history shows. And of course Keen was just bad at her job.
But i also say the same thing about dion. Of course, i could see why you'd think of him as being a little 'feminine', but last i heard he was a guy.
I don't have a problem with women. I have a problem with incompetence and stupidity. Kim was stupid. Keen was incompetent. Dion is both. The liberals chose poorly.
I hardly forget where the bloc came from. But the bloc is powerless without the support of the people. And what has got their back up? It's the libs.
The PC party had become corrupt, and there was little difference between them and the liberals. But - the 'pc supporters' of the day had the good taste to realize it, and destroyed the party.
Liberals for some reason haven't got that level of commitment to canada. Or that same sense of honour it would seem. Well - not yet anyway. We'll see what happens during the election.
The official opposition position should be held by a party that is honest, non-corrupt and has strong public support for their ideals, which should differ from the party in power. They shouldn't just say 'no' when the other side says 'yes'. It is necessary to keep the gov't in power from becoming corrupt. Right now - the NDP would make a much much more effective opposition than the libs. The fact that they're left wing is irrelevant. Funny tho how the libs always turn to their voters when they think they're loosing - guess the libs don't think the NDP is so bad.
And no - i don't bother patting myself on the back. I find it virtually effortless to be more informed than you, so it really doesn't feel like much of an accomplishment.
[updated Thu Jul 24 16:55:20 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 16:55
larryl
Know it all. It seems you think a lot of people are stupid. The two stupid women achieved a lot more than you have with all your knowledge so maybe there is a chance for me to become P.M. some day but you are way too smart for that. You will never admit Lyin Brain was the reason the P.C.s lost and that makes you as dumb as you think I am. You chose to get involved in a discussion with others , they did not choose you to debate you as seem to believe. I have had debates with others who did not resort to calling people stupid or incompetent . Your opinion of yourself can only be compared to Mulroney's opinion of himself. He was a legend in his own mind but history will reveal what a crook he really was. Now you are laying the blame for the death of the P.C. party on it's supporters. They all committed Hari Kari just to punish themselves for allowing their party to become corrupt. You can sure spin things to c.y.a .Tommy Douglas chosen greatest Canadian was elected Premier of Sask and the first socialist government in N.A. and then took over as leader of the N.D.P. so saying they were just a little socialist still is the dumbest thing I have heard any one say and that includes some of my dumb statements.
[updated Thu Jul 24 18:24:18 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 18:24
Foxer
Awww - did i hurt your wittew feeewings because i pointed out your lack of knowledge again?
It must be tough to be so opinionated without a clue - the embarrassment must be intense.
And i don't know about PM, but with your brains, you're DEFINITELY in the running for leader of the liberal party. Have a crack at it. :)
Brian was gone when the PC's lost. It's stupid to say he was the reason that the party was destroyed. Just as it would be stupid to suggest if the liberals are destroyed that it was all chretien's fault.
Mulroney left a stink on the party - but it still polled well. And Kim had been PM for many months. She screwed up her campaign, she is the reason she failed.
If the pc had just lost the election, it might have been possible to say it was Brian's fault. But - the loss that happened was alll about kimmy.
A grade school kid could figure that out.
You've replied to me several times now. You claim you don't 'choose' to? What - you tripped and fell on the keyboard?
In fact - you were the one to chose to jump in on this conversation, i was talking to someone else.
No wonder you're so crappy at history - you can't even remember what YOU did a day ago :)
I blamed the death of the PC on kim campbell actually. I said the party 'supporters' had the decency to do the right thing and pull the plug when they saw it was beyond repair.
I guess that was too subtle a distinction for you.
And yes - traditionally conservative supporters and especially Western people will turn on and destroy parties that become corrupt or incompetant. In fact, out this way even the ndp supporters will do the same thing. It happened to the social credit, it happend to the ndp after clarke. And we sure as hell did it to kimmy.
We've done it several times. I guess living in the east you don't understand the idea of throwing out a corrupt gov't. Must seem very strange to you. Mind you - you strike me as the type who'd tolerate it.
The ndp is a little socialist. They are not actually socialists or communists. Is this going to be another case where i have to tell you what a word means?
And trust me - your 'dumb' comments take the prize. :) Hey - perhaps you really COULD run for the libs!
[updated Thu Jul 24 18:38:34 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 18:38
larryl
Dr. know it all. You must have a PH.D. the way you spin things.The conversation you were having was between Nigel and T.P.Q. before you jumped in . You had to force yourself in twice before they bothered to respond to you. Then when I joined the same discussion you were the one to address your comments toward me as my name appears at the beginning of your remarks. You can verify this by simply scrolling up the page.While your at it you might check your comment at 16;55. I quote"the pc supporters of the day had the good taste to realize it and destroyed the party" Those are your words not mine . The N.D.P. was more than a little socialist but now is irrelevant and should join forces with a left of center party that could get rid of the extreme right that Steve YoHarper actually leads. People don't choose to tolerate corruption . It is and always will be part of politics and I certainly can't change that. Back to your claim that I replied to you. I did make the mistake of doing that but only after you chose to address your comments to me personnally. I will continue to respond when some one chooses to discuss my DUMB comments since they choose to do that. I guess I will risk being insulted but since there is only one know it all I guess I don't have to worry much about that happening.
[updated Thu Jul 24 19:34:48 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 19:34
Foxer
no, larryl I don't know it all. Just a lot more than you.
And nice of you to admit that you weren't infact part of the conversation and chose to jump in :) So - i guess some people DO choose to debate me :) And i'm thinking given your knowledge level, you must be one of the second group i mentioned.
And yes - the 'supporters' did destroy the party in good taste. That's very different than 'blaming them'.
I take it your parents were also too poor to buy you a dictionary?
The reason that it was necessary to wipe the party out is that it had become unsalvageable. Corruption under Mulroney had been bad enough, but instead of cleaning it up kimmy dropped the ball. So - they had to go. Who's to blame? Kim. Who's responsible for doing the right thing at that point and pulling the plug? Those who would normally vote PC and chose not to.
If people don't choose to tolerate corruption, dion's party is in worse trouble than even I predicted :)
And again - your complete lack of knowledge isn't my problem. I wish you'd quit trying to make it so. If you continue to find it so embarrasing, instead of insulting others just try learning a bit. I promise, it doesn't hurt. Well - it doesn't hurt most people.
[updated Thu Jul 24 19:43:30 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 19:43
larryl
Do you really have to stoop to the level of insulting the dead with moronic comments about someone's parents. You are not only arrogant and obnoxious but the biggest a..hole I have ever had the misfortune of encountering. Unfortunately there are many miles between us that you can hide your identity from some one who would teach you how to be a real man . This is a small world and what goes round usually comes round . Here is hoping we meet some where some day.
[updated Thu Jul 24 20:12:05 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 20:12
Foxer
Ahh - adding threats to your insults. Very easy to do behind a computer as you say. You were the one who discussed your parents in a previous thread. I suspect your 'discomfort' is more to do with the fact you've made a bit of a fool of yourself, but whatever.
As to meeting, i suspect that'd go about as well for you as our debates have :) I'm not exactly a small boy and i don't run from fights much. Do you really think it's a wise idea however to threaten people online?
Oh - and if you can't take a few shots - maybe you shouldn't be starting the insults in the first place.
[updated Thu Jul 24 20:40:33 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 20:40
larryl
know it all. I pointed out to you what your words were and you had to stoop to the level of insulting my parents again. I tolerated it the first time you did it but will not again. If you read a threat in my offering to teach you how a real man behaves your true intellect is starting to show. At 62 I don't go around threatening people who might be half my age and twice my size. Real men don't resort to "fights" to deal with a..holes like you. You should read your own garbage before saying the quotes I gave you were not true. You did not need to tell me you are not a small boy ,only your mind is small.
[updated Thu Jul 24 20:56:24 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 20:56
Foxer
Where did i insult your parents again? I pointed out you brought them up before. That is hardly an insult.
And frankly - if you want to engage in insults you'll have to accept that you might get insulted back. Don't want that - then don't insult people. You don't get to 'draw the line' anywhere.
And i think everyone knew it was a threat. The fact that you came to your sense about threatening someone bigger than you and are now backpeddling doesn't change that.
You act civil - you get civil. You don't you don't. And here's a hint for you for the future - if you don't want people to treat you like garbage, don't act like crap.
[updated Thu Jul 24 21:35:27 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 21:35
MRM
Foxer - You are doing great. I enjoy your posts.
[updated Thu Jul 24 22:04:58 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 22:04
larryl
Know it all. It took a little time but you can read previous conversations we had . On July 11th. I listed many of the insults you had thrown at me long before I responded with my first. Check my post at 13:37. The first time I mentioned my parents was at 22:42 and was done in a way to try to explain why I was not fortunate enough to attend post secondary education like you had. Your reply at 23:47 was and I quote" my parents and grand parents did not go to university either . But- they knew right from wrong . I guess yours did not have time for that either".Certainly not exactly complimentary but I guess it only sounds like an insult if you are on the wrong end of that statement. Civility seems to have escaped your upbringing and resorting to insulting even the deceased is something you will resort to when you can't deny your own words.Shame is probably something you have never felt but you should now .
[updated Thu Jul 24 22:41:32 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 22:41
Foxer
i'm not interested in your lame excuses. You brought up your parents as the reason for your lack of education - i pointed out here that they obviously didn't buy you a dictionary either.
If you act like a jackass, you really can't complain when people treat you like one. Sorry if that doesn't work out well for you. Next time if you want a civil conversation then act civilly. Otherwise - you really have little reason to complain.
[updated Thu Jul 24 22:53:22 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 22:53
larryl
know it all. I would rather be a jackass than an a....hole any day of the week.
[updated Thu Jul 24 22:59:41 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 22:59
Foxer
Well you've pretty much got 'em both covered - you start out as the one and end on the other. So it's nice that you have choices.
[updated Thu Jul 24 23:02:04 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 23:02
(moderator)
Foxer - Nik here (the pollster) - I am asking that both you and larryl refrain from making personal attacks - they take away from the substance of your posts. Cheers, NJN
[updated Fri Jul 25 09:29:13 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 09:29
(moderator)
larryl - Nik here (the pollster) - I am asking that both you and foxer refrain from making personal attacks - they take away from the substance of your posts. Cheers, NJN
[updated Fri Jul 25 09:27:19 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 09:27
larryl
nik. I don't mind the personal attacks but when one has to resort to insulting a persons family I consider that going too far. I ignored it the first time but but could not tolerate it again. Since he joined our discussions he has done nothing but attack other participants and not their opinions. I reread some of his previous attacks and pointed them out to him . You can judge for yourself if I was justified in my responses to him. The evidence is there as I found in my conversations with him on July 11th at 13:37 , 22:42 and 23:47. I will not only refrain from personal attacks as you call them but will stop any further debate with a know it all who has all the answers. Thanks for your time.
[updated Fri Jul 25 10:48:56 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 10:48
Foxer
Repeating your own comments about your parents not providing for your education is hardly an insult.
And its' a good show of your insincerity that you claim you will stop personal attacks but then in the next sentence make one.
Your crocodile tears over the 'terrible insult' to your parents don't impress anyone.
If you want to be treated in a civl manner - act in a civil manner. I don't insult people who don't insult me first as a rule.
You seem to go from losing the debate to insults, then from losing the insults to threatening, then from losing the threatening routine to crying foul that others know more than you, insulted you, etc.
Act like a man - be treated like a man. Act like garbage... well, you get the idea.
[updated Fri Jul 25 13:10:48 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 13:10
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
dead on larryl.... and we should deal with the ignorance proffered here by some with stoney silence.
blacklist:
MRM
FOXER
[updated Thu Jul 24 22:11:50 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 22:11
Foxer
You mean like abstaining from voting? Well, dion would approve at least. :)
[updated Thu Jul 24 22:31:18 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 22:31
larryl
T.P.Q. Had to dig up the evidence for Know it all and found his words that he will probably find an excuse for using . Since he is in his opinion the smartest guy on the planet we should probably not waste anymore of his valuable time debating things we know nothing about.
[updated Thu Jul 24 22:47:38 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 22:47
MRM
TPornelQ - In case you missed it the first time.
Thank you so much for not talkng to me. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate it! I don't know what prompted this but if it was something that I did I wish that I had done it a long time ago. I hope that you show the others that you have inflicted yourself upon the same kindness? No need to respond to this. Lets just bask in the silence of the moment.
[updated Sat Jul 26 01:02:10 -0400 2008]
26 Jul 01:02
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Foxer:
"And one thing is absolutely the truth - seperatist sentiment in Canada goes DOWN, not UP, when the CPC is in power. The liberals almost destroyed the country - the CPC actually makes federalism stronger"
Ah yes Meech lake was the great unifier and had nothing to do with the creation of the Bloc and ultimately the 1995 referendum. Where do you get these fantasies from....the party playbook can't be that poorly written.
................
Another brain fart:
"This time out - it's of little doubt who the better campaigner is. If the libs start to slide - they could easily slide a long way. And if they are 3rd place or lower - they are toast as a political entity."
Where do you dream up this stuff? While I would not take any pollsters word as gospel (except Nik at federal election prognostications) where do you see the Libs falling? The pols actually show them rising slowly, but rising.
.................
And this is pure diaherra:
"The libs have no real chance of getting rid of harper. They can only hold him to a minority - which means nothing considering the libs have let him do what he wants without challenge anyway.
If people don't believe in the CPC, their best choice is to vote NDP. The NDP makes a more effective and honest opposition party. It's always wise to vote for the best choice. If all canadians do that, we'll have a CPC gov't and an effective NDP minority."
Where in earth is there any chance of that happening in the polls, on the streets of the country or even in the press? What bizarre and illogical things to say.
The very fact the Libs votes are mostly cast in the east and from the mjority left in Canada means they can win more seats much easier than Harper. Chretien won a majority (155 seats in 1993 if I remember correctly) with the same 36% vote that left Harper well short of anything close to a majority. Currently Dion is very far ahead in Ontario by something like 12 or 13 % and while they are behind in Quebec that province can turn on a dime and they have no where to go there but up. The green shift is getting good reviews and good press there and Dion will use it to ramp up his support for candidates in upcoming by elections.
Lastly, even if by a fluke Harper wins another minority mandate it won't last long because it will be with even fewer seats than this parliament and it will end in a hurry as the entire opposition will want to exploit the weakness. I'm taking bets that won't happen because the Libs will only topple the weakened Tories when they are sure they can win and that I believe is on the horizon. For Dion to bring up an election yesterday is a signal that internal polls are showing the right movement for him. The tories haven't jumped up and taunted him either so their polls must be reflecting much the same thing.
[updated Thu Jul 24 18:24:46 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 18:24
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Correction:
I believe the 36% Chretien majority may have been in the last election he fought.
[updated Thu Jul 24 18:26:49 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 18:26
Foxer
Uhh - the cpc wasn't even around for 'meech'. Geez - you're not easily confused, are ya :)
And no - the polls don't show him slowly rising. The polls in january, february march, april and may showed him at about the same spot. In the 30-31 percent range. THat's where he's been for ages, that's where he's staying. You'll see the occasional drop, you'll see the occasional rise. But only ipsos (which is total crap and has always been way off on predictions) even suggests otherwise.
Likewise, they show harper at about 36 percent. Oh, he's gone as high as 40 in that time frame, but it would not be realistic to suggest that's where he's at.
Sorry. Dion is not moving. And neither is harper. The 'undecided' will be deciding this one.
As to dion having no chance to beat harper - well, i suppose anything COULD happen but realistically, he's got no chance. He'll be lucky to hold him to a minority.
The NDP however is in a very interesting position - i'm reminded of the reform party during kim's nosedive. People felt they were too radical, but when it came time to 'abandon' their regular party of choice they surprised everyone by voting them in in large numbers. The block also had that sort of thing happen. The ndp is in a position to capitalize on the same sort of phenomenon. But as i've said - it will depend on the campaign.
And no - the very fact that the libs vote in the east does not show he can get more votes. The problem for him is the libs just vote in the east - the CPC is voting in the east and west :) Harper took more seats in quebec and stands to grow there. He took almost as many seats in ontario and may grow there as well - but dion took few seats in the west and has no chance at growth. He'll more likely lose what he has.
So where is dion going to grow? He's got very very little potential in quebec. And only slightly more in ontario - but he just announced a tax that will not be very good for ontario's economy. Harper on the other hand can grow in the east west and middle.
And no - dion isn't anywhere near 12 or 13 percent ahead in ontario.
the best guess is about 6 points. It's always tough to tell because the margin of error provincially is traditionally very high. Unelss someone does a large poll specific to that province.
But once again - you have to look at the demographics. Dion has a huge support base that's very highly concentrated.
Imagine there's 10 ridings. Dion has 100 percent support in 2 of them, and only 49 percent in the others. harper has zero in two and 51 in the others.
All together dion would have 59.2 percent of the vote. BUT - harper would win 8 of 10 ridings.
there's no doubt - harper is going to lose downtown toronto :) But he might very well take more seats in the province, when you look at where the support is. And further, dion's tax plan won't help dion where he needs it, and harper's putting 6 billion into infrastructure in rurral areas and some key cities will help harper.
The green shift is getting crappy reviews and public opinion has not been good on it. Worse - like most plans it'll just get picked apart from here, and so public support will tend to go down.
And if harper gets a minority - the libs will have a leadership convention. Dion will be gone, and the party will be broke for a while. And whomever they choose will have to pick up the pieces, and try to get things organized. Which is pretty much what happened last time if you'll recall. Which means harper would be in for a while :)
I notice we have a minority right now - and thanks to dion we've also had almost the longest minority in history :) So you would appear to be wrong on that point too.
[updated Thu Jul 24 18:58:58 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 18:58
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Foxer brain fart:
"Uhh - the cpc wasn't even around for 'meech'. Geez - you're not easily confused, are ya :)'
Most mergers that I know of build on the history of the merged groupings. Its interesting that will say Mulroney was tory PM and other things with conservative intontations in relative terms but suddenly meech is not one of them.........HA HA HA!!!
Why don't you encourage your party honchos to run exclusively on the reform party manifesto which was the only surviving culture of the merger if I read your tome correctly. Then you will be relegated to Alberta and parts of Sask only which may happen in any event.
As for having the longest minority in history and not being able to build it into a majority I say is a grand failure because, according to you, Dion has not challenged them and therefore they should be at 50% in the polls as opposed to the 30.5% in the latest published polls .
BTW the longest true minority in Canada belongs to Lester B. Pearson's government. He did it over two elections but survived five years. He had the talents of a good negotiator something your feckless leader soundly and sadly lacks. Pearson had a great love for a united and centralized country something your useless leader sadly lacks.
[updated Thu Jul 24 19:18:24 -0400 2008]
24 Jul 19:18
Foxer
When two companies/groups/orgs merge they may be built on the histories of their orgs, but the creation is something new. There is no doubt in the world that the CPC is NOT the PC party. I wouldn't vote for the PC party. I had the same problems with it that i have with the libs before dion - corruption and an unwillingness to listen. The liberals are the same, except they now also can add incompetence to that. (Although as i've said while i feel dion is incompetant and too arrogant to listen to anyone, i don't feel he personally is corrupt. The party is tho.).
Mulroney has advised Harper occasionally (mostly in how to assume a gov't, a difficult proceedure) but there is no doubt that Harper is not Mulroney.
And i've never credited the CPC with past successes of the PC party.
And actually the reform swept the entire west. But lets face it - the easterners would never accept a party they saw as being a 'western' party. It was essentially a slightly less seperatist version of the bloc, there to promote western interests and looking for a fair shake for the western provinces. As you'll recall, the battle cry was "the west wants in'. Well we're in now :)
As to their agenda - once people realized we could actually win an election, the more radical policies became undesirable. Just like the NDP - people may park their votes with them but if they were actually going to form gov't, people would want them to be a little more moderate.
I'm happy with how the policy convention turned out for the most part, I think it built on some of the best ideas of the old PC concepts and retained a lot of the spirit of the Reform party with a lot of the more radical crap removed.
And that's the idea of a merger, to keep the best and what works and toss the rest, and be stronger as a result.
As to not having a majority - we shall see won't we :) If the undecided vote comes down on the CPC's side, there's more than enough to give him a majority, so it's a long way from over just yet :)
Which is pretty damn impressive for a party that's only about 6 years old, no matter what anyone says. Neither the greens nor the NDP ever came close to even forming opposition before now, and they've been around longer. So I'd say he's a runaway success so far by any practical measure, and if he wins a majority it will be the stuff of legends.
Oh - and i wouldn't pay TOO much attention to harris-decima. For some reason they always poll the liberals much higher than everyone else polls them (even if the polls are done at the same time) and much lower for the cpc. Even during elections. They're just not accurate for some reason.
If you look at all the polling done in january, february, march, april and may, it's pretty consistant. The CPC is somewhere around 36 percent, where they've always been since the eleciton and the libs are around 32 percent, where they've always been since the election. The undecided is huge, probably around 15 - 17 percent. People will decide once an election is actually called. But they're leaning towards harper on some of the most important issues like the economy, and they think harper would make the better pm. But in the end it'll boil down to the campaign. Which, lets face it, favours harper.
Oh - and no, it's not the 'longest minority' if you spread it over two terms. :) Sorry. A gov't is one term. And harper's almost beat his best.
[updated Fri Jul 25 11:11:54 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 11:11
Nigel
O.K. guys, can we agree that Layton forced concessions out of the Liberals before they went under and might be able to do more...governing or not, official opposition or not? He's not a god to me by a long-shot, but he's RELATIVELY GOOD, and the Libs still haven't cleaned up their act. Dion's not the guy to do it either. Besides he's dead meat after the next election. So, "realistic" or not, pushing for the NDP to be as strong as we can make them is about all we can do in this situation, no?
Signing off.
[updated Fri Jul 25 17:35:14 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 17:35
Foxer
Yeah, that's a fair statement nigel. I never like the word 'forced', but an opposition party should be able to negotiate amendments that reflect the will of their voters to some degree and Layton was successful in doing that both with the libs and with the CPC.
Frankly, one of the things i respect about the guy (even tho i disagree with his policies for the most part) is the fact that he WILL on occasion tone down the rhetoric and actually try to work stuff out that is reasonable. The ruling party usually does and should keep the focus of their policy and bills aimed at their mandate, but often they can be 'tweaked' to incorporate other ideas.
And this is where i was going when i said that it's not the job of the opposition to just say 'no' whenever the other party says 'yes'.
And of course it makes sense to support the party if you believe in it. You don't just vote for who you think will win, you vote for who you think is going to do the best job. That kind of focus is what gave the right wing the CPC, and a lack of that kind of accountability is what let the liberals become corrupt in the first place. A party should be able to stand on it's own merits, not just attract voters because 'if you don't, the other guy might win'.
[updated Fri Jul 25 17:57:46 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 17:57
TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I wonder how the US election will affect Harper's copycat policies since its unlikely his parent party is going to win.
It may also change the dynamics of an upcoming Canadian election. My POV is that Canadians are tired of the Bush administration and see the Harper bunch as a clone of that government.
It will also slow down the North South 3 amigos integration he and Bush are day dreaming about.
[updated Tue Jul 22 09:45:38 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 09:45
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Foxer
Personally - I think Canada is holding it's breath a little.
I think they've seen harper now and are saying "Ok, he's not so scary. But - what is he going to do for us in the future? He's not really done anything really earth shattering so far". I think people have seen dion and said "I've been a liberal for years, but this guy isn't impressing me - is he going to pull something out of his hat i can really believe in yet, or is he a dud?"
I don't think they've seen much of layton at all, and most aren't sure what his policies are.
They're waiting on an election to actually take the time to look at it and decide. I think they'll want to see the platforms and will look for the 'vision' there.
I think that you can win the people over either with great personality or great platforms. Well - harper doesn't HAVE a personality and while Dion does, it sucks. So it's going to boil down to policy, and we haven't seen a platform yet from the CPC or NDP, and the Libs may have more than just the 'green shift' to play before it's over (they'd better, that one ain't wowing people).
Actually - i prefer it that way a bit. I think it's a mistake to pick a leader based primarily on personality. I'd rather it be about talent and policy any day. But we won't see people come down one way or another till the parties all put their cards on the table, and that won't happen till an election.
I think the debates may be more important than in the past this time out as well.
[updated Tue Jul 22 17:44:54 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 17:44
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080722.winout0722/BNStory/National/home
"OTTAWA — The Conservative Party shifted thousands of dollars in advertising expenses from two of its top Quebec candidates to other Quebec candidates who had more spending room in their 2006 federal election campaigns, the lawyer for Elections Canada has suggested.
A former financial officer for the party confirmed last month in a court examination that expenses incurred by Public Works Minister Christian Paradis and former foreign affairs minister Maxime Bernier were assigned to other candidates."
.............................
The Tory Quebec strategy is sure to be reeling even more after this disclosure of more slime and money laundering activities. Looks good on a party that portrays themselves as MR. Clean
[updated Tue Jul 22 17:50:46 -0400 2008]
22 Jul 17:50
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Eating humble pie chart...
Don't let greedy politicians capitalize on caring ,compassionate people...You really want a green shift ..Vote green.Do something to be heard...Show out of touch politicians we want real change.Vote green...
It may seem like a wasted vote to some, but it would show peoples dissatifaction with the governments failings.....Politicians like to play political games(tax games) to try to distract and depress the public .Throw around mis and dis information as if it were the truth( watch out for african climate change).They play these games to do nothing more then Hurt their opponents and kill peoples passions and dreams for their own financial gains. This is a great way to keep the people suppressed and under control.Let the people fight amongst themselves while leaders pass faulty laws and rules that are unenforceable, simply cause they can!......Until election time when they roll a loaded dice with a lot of false promises and verbal spew. Voters always rolling snake eye's (unless of coarse you bet on them, then the o.l.g. gets it..But what's the difference...lose....lose...lose!
).
Let's quit these daming games and bring a party to the house that stands for real change!!.A party that will represent what people have been screaming at politicians to acknowledge ..It is time for a better way! Innovation,incentives and new technological green initiatives are in demand.Lets scratch that niche .Turn Canada into a lead country .Not a follower to its demise..
It seems to me that the liberals don't even want to win in the next election and the conservatives are beginning to show their true color(grey or GRAY)...These political tax games make me wonder if perhaps no party wants to lead the country at all .After all who wants to run a country heading towards depression .A depression caused by the failure of politicians and leading businesses to listen to a changing world. A world that has been growing around them for years as they continue to raise their walls in ignorance .
An Example can be pin pointed to when the rules were changed to allow the ndp to stay in parliment with 7 percent of the vote , instead of the 9 percent originally needed due to the growing number of green party voters and a confussed parliment..
Another example is with the battle of the Bush election. Where gore went on to capitalize on the growing green front with his global warming spew.True or not...While politicians play games in their make belief world , Who really wants to rule the potential failing economy in the real world ...It is easy to mess everything up in the confusion of self interest and falsifying games ,while searching for more money .It's Even harder for these politicians and trapped business owners to fix the mistakes and the problems they helped create
.Time to swallow some humble pie, and listen to the public for once!! The people are trying to tell you something!!..We are aware of your games...NO MORE!!!!
GreenFish66..........
Let's ask meteorologists one question directed at climate change!..
With all the new weather predicting technology .Is it getting easier or harder to predict the weather??..Are forcasts getting more accurate or harder to make????
Partly cloudy with sunny periods, chance of rain!
[updated Wed Jul 23 12:14:54 -0400 2008]
23 Jul 12:14
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MRM
Anyone who ever doubted that the CBC, our publicly funded national media outlet was a propaganda machine for the LPC and have been manipulating the news in an effort to control the political agenda need do so no more. They have outed themselves and entered two candidates in the Sept by-elections. Both candidates will no doubt be continuing to collect their considerable taxpayer funded salaries throughout the campaign. They decided to run because it was becoming ever more apparent with the rising fortunes of the CPC and the ever sinking fortunes of the LPC that the GG job would no longer be the sole purview of CBC journalists.
[updated Fri Jul 25 00:57:08 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 00:57
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
One of the issues Nik said was a potentially large problem for Tories going into the fall is about to hit them finally. After trying to dodge the bullet and trying to deflect their money laundering in and out scheme scheme beyond another election the courts are ruling against them time and time again. They continue wasting court time that costs taxpayers money when they should simply be explaining to Canadians that their tactics were illegal.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/466806
[updated Fri Jul 25 01:37:20 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 01:37
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=677604
It looks as thought the shift in manufacturing jobs out of Canada has distorted where immigrants locate. The loss of manufacturing jobs in Southern Ontartio has forced many immigrants to go to smaller centers outsdide of the big Cities. This is true of both Vancouver and Montreal also.
The article also gives truth to another lie that foxer tried to foist on us about immigration the other day. He and his truth challenged friend are always slanting lying or fabricating stories that eventually come full circle.
Another lie from them is the fact the Liberals are now at 21% in Crop's last Quebec poll and that is even with or slightly ahead of the Reform (CRAP party
[updated Fri Jul 25 16:00:14 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 16:00
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=680060
"The federal government has posted a budget deficit of $500-million for the first two months of the 2008-09 fiscal year, the Department of Finance said Friday.'
That's an annual of $3BB deficit which makes mince meat of Flaherty's lies once more and will further erode Harper's numbers as people are already nervous about his fiscal regime. And guess what...revenues are down and spending up just as I forecast.
so now we can add dficit monger to the their titles of liars and money launderers. Guess who wil now be on the defensive this coming election
[updated Fri Jul 25 16:06:40 -0400 2008]
25 Jul 16:06
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The tory rhetoric in Ontario is picking up with major announcements this past week and the showing off ministers like Clement and Flaherty on the BBQ circuit and in public with Ontario provincial ministers. An Ipsos Reid VP was just on the radio here saying that reflects Harper's desperatioin in Ontario as their own polls are showing them up to 15% behind the Liberals across the province. He went on to say that "green shift" may actually be consoldiating that vote in Ontario although its still a little early to pronounce accurately on that. He also noted that Dion is coming across much better now and his public appearances are getting much better and he's showing his confidence and comfot levels in public.
He also stated that if those %'s hold up the Liberals are almost guaranteed to win, at a minimum a minority victory in a fall election. He even further mused that ministers like /clements would most likely lose their seats if the numbers continue as is.
The interview was music to my ears.
Ipsos are known tory pollsters also and do a full polling show every saturday evening on CFRB1010 which is a tory branded station.
[updated Sat Jul 26 08:25:26 -0400 2008]
26 Jul 08:25
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Looks like the tories can take enough seats in Quebec to win their majority.
As posted here in the national post:
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=677663
The tories stand a strong chance of taking all of the montreal ridings:
"But in Quebec there are now only two parties in the race for the 50 seats outside Montreal -- the Bloc Quebecois, who hold most of them, and the Conservatives, who are challenging them as the competitive federalist party.
The Conservatives won eight of their 10 Quebec seats in 418, and have since picked up another there in a byelection in the Saguenay region.
And that's the point. The 418 isn't just Quebec City, but the North Shore and the South Shore, from Beauce to the Gaspe. The area is at least 95% French-speaking, and has a history of voting massively one way or another."
Looks like they've got strong chances in Ontario's key regions too.
I think harper is praying for dion to call a fall election. I think Dion is just praying. :)
[updated Sat Jul 26 18:10:44 -0400 2008]
26 Jul 18:10
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Foxer
WHILE DION PROPOSES MORE TAXES, CPC MOVES TO INCREASE JOBS IN ONTARIO.
Well well well. While Dion is proposing more than a billion in new taxes for ontario, Harper's gov't is seeing 6 billion spent in improving Ontario's infrastructure and jobs.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=677349
Some excerpts;
"Modern infrastructure is key to providing essential services to Canadians," Mr. Cannon said here at a news conference.
"Substantial infrastructure funding was long overdue in this country. Our government will work with Ontario to identify those infrastructure needs most important to Ontarians."
Targeted funding of $362-million has also been earmarked for smaller cities, with a population of 100,000 or less.
Provincial Finance Minister Dwight Duncan said the program will help create good jobs and strengthen Ontario's economic competitiveness.
"Not only will we create jobs today, but improve productivity in the future," he said
Seems more likely to create jobs and help ontario get itself out of it's problems than taxing them more. I suspect that'll help boost people's confidence that Harper is the better choice for people worried about their jobs.
[updated Sat Jul 26 18:17:47 -0400 2008]
26 Jul 18:17
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larryl
nik. I am sure any one interested in this topic watched Dion on question period to-day. Without letting our personal bias get in the way, I would be interested to know if any opinions have changed or if any one thinks the publics opinion might have have changed in any way.
[updated Sun Jul 27 17:31:08 -0400 2008]
27 Jul 17:31
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larryl
Interesting question on Sympatico /MSN. Since it is a voluntary response and across the country the results from 25,000 is not scientific but the results might be more an indication of the true feelings of the voters. They are not a polling company who might try to influence the opinion of respondents. What we read into the results will vary with our own opinions but it would be interesting to poll our small group for their opinion of the results. If you go to
sympatico.msn.ca you can read the question and see the results. More on my take of the results later.
[updated Mon Jul 28 17:37:26 -0400 2008]
28 Jul 17:37
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Great message Larryl....It won't be easy for two parties (liberals and conservatives) to win a majority this fall election.They have seemed to forget about family values and peoples freedoms .All for the security of a few more dollars in potentially tough times...Created by bad business and politics!..If people feel ripped off or lied to ,they're less likely to give up that dollar!....I think it's time big business and governments go back to grade 3 and play that "Lemonade stand"game again(anyone remember that game ) .......Are they smarter than a 5th grader?
I think it is far past time that the greens and the ndp merge into a new party...How about the NDGP....The New Democratic Green Party!.....That's what the country needs ....Real values!!!
Thank-you for your space and time .....
B.Greenfish66.......
Over and out there from here........
[updated Tue Jul 29 02:21:05 -0400 2008]
29 Jul 02:21
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Foxer
Well - looks like one Party leader has made his choice.
The national post offers the following article:
http://tinyurl.com/5kerh7
Here's the first blurb:
"Tories ready to bait Dion, but will he bite?
Don Martin, National Post Published: Wednesday, July 30, 2008
OTTAWA -Idle speculation suggested the Conservatives would run and hide, delaying Parliament's return for an extra month or two while avoiding votes that would hand the Opposition an opportunity to force an election.
Well, apparently not.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's kickoff for his caucus retreat tonight is being advance-billed as The Dion Dare, a gauntlet he will throw down at Liberal leader Stephane Dion's feet demanding he pull the parliamentary plug this fall or back away from his chronically empty election bluster until next year.
The government has lurched sharply into election hawk territory in the past week, officially declaring there is no Throne Speech plan to extend the summer recess, no scrapping of a fall economic update, even if it's filled with lousy fiscal news, and vowing no hesitation over introducing confidence measures that, if voted down, would send MPs to the polls."
It continues. (see national post for details)
So, it looks like if Dion wants an election then Harper is prepared to roll the dice and take the chance. We'll have to wait and see if Dion and the other opposition parties will pick up the gauntlet this time, probably after the by elections.
[updated Wed Jul 30 19:14:29 -0400 2008]
30 Jul 19:14
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
One more reason the Libs haven't pushed for an election before now is the way Harper and his mighty midget are running the economy which took a downwards turn in May with the worst months yet to come if the US is any barometer, and it is.
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/business/story.html?id=ebf8552c-11ee-4d3c-8245-d24c851f01c4
Nothing like nailing their incompetence while the economy is flailing around aimlessly.
[updated Fri Aug 01 22:33:45 -0400 2008]
01 Aug 22:33
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Here's one that has backfire written all over it as Harper once again screws up in Quebec with attempts at bribery of the voting public. This was written by a separatist and ultra nationalist of which there are still many in the province. This attempt at correcting history will not go down well and Charest was wise to step back and once again take the money and avoid the consequences of harepr's crass politics.
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/opinion/story.html?id=5947c62a-4a53-4953-9223-35acf9d2bf1f&p=2
"But sometimes, even the most insistent propaganda, if too disconnected from
reality, doesn't work. Witness the Ipsos Reid-Canwest poll reported Friday in the Gazette:
While 46 per cent of Quebecers see the 400th as the "founding of Quebec and the Québécois nation," 45 per cent of Canadians outside Quebec see it as the "founding of French Canada, both inside and outside Quebec." But none of these specific respondents see it as the actual "founding of the Canadian state."
Oh, well. Could it be that the Harper government spent its 400th anniversary budget of $110 million tax dollars for nothing?"
Josee Legault writes for the Gazettee
[updated Sun Aug 03 13:52:36 -0400 2008]
03 Aug 13:52
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Here's one more reason to fear populist conservative type politicans. While the article is about the current US financial disaster it also plays to one of my themes that populist conservative governments are receipes for economic disaster. Flaherty helped create one mess in Ontario and with Harper fronting him he is on his way to ANOTHER FISCAL CALAMITY, this one of national proportions.
Please don't tell me there not similarities to the US situation here. We were well managed fiscally for 14 plus years and the wheels are just starting to come off now that a recession is around the corner. Flaherty is very close to driving us into deficit territory and will actually get us there by year end. The May GDP numbers released last week show the economy slipping into negative growth which if continued will drive us into a deficit any month now. I believe we may already be in a recessionary mode.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/88839-delusions-of-debt
[updated Tue Aug 05 03:16:43 -0400 2008]
05 Aug 03:16
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
Here's another very likely backfire for Harper;
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/474185
"The latest Liberal court filings include an affidavit from University of Toronto professor Peter Russell that argues no Canadian prime minister has sued political opponents for libel despite a history of dramatic accusations during stormy debates in Parliament.
"This use of legal action to silence the opposition is characteristic of authoritarian governments," Russell says in an expert opinion obtained by Toronto lawyer Chris Paliare, who is representing the Liberals.
"It is incompatible with democratic government," argues Russell, a political scientist and professor emeritus at the university."
Any bets Harper will try and delay the hearing in September. The embarrassment of this Liberal action being successful going into an election campaign could single handedly kill off Harper.
[updated Fri Aug 08 03:00:08 -0400 2008]
08 Aug 03:00
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I presume you all remember Flaherty the liar saying our economy was fine and would withstand the US downturn.......GUESS WHAT.....he lied again.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080808.wloonie0808/BNStory/Business/home
"The employment report – marking the biggest job loss in 17 years – “really caught people off guard,” Ms. Croft said in an interview.
“Canada has been considered a bastion of economic stability, unlike the U.S., the U.K., Europe, Japan, which are already in recession or heading that way. Canada, until recently, has held up quite well, but this jobs report is a sign that it's our turn now,” she said.
[updated Fri Aug 08 12:16:43 -0400 2008]
08 Aug 12:16
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The Tory bully boys won't shake their reputation now. Findlay trying to take the commons inquiry off their game has highlighted the real tories we have in power. shame shame.
I love it when this stuff happens to bullies.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080811.wtories0811/BNStory/National/home
"Mr. Finley then stunned MPs by ignoring requests from Liberal committee chair Paul Szabo to leave and return for his scheduled appearance on Wednesday. Mr. Szabo eventually ordered in Commons security guards who escorted Finley from the room.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper had warned recently about “Kangaroo court” committee inquiries.
As reporters trailed him down hallways, Finley refused to explain why he could not appear later in the week as the committee had requested. When asked if he would return voluntarily, replied: “Not likely.”
[updated Mon Aug 11 15:59:07 -0400 2008]
11 Aug 15:59
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MoE2.2
The Green Shift Plan is quite simple in concept...I wonder why its supporters have made it appear more complex. Global forces, which we cannot control, are forcing carbon related costs to climb sharply...and they will continue to do so according to all the candidates; Canadians need to adjust to this reality; forcing big polluters to pay is only part of the answer...citizens need to take action to protect themselves from rising prices by using less carbon (by using oil more efficiently and by moving to other sources of energy) The Green Shift helps citizens to become more energy efficient and thereby use less carbon. It does this by putting money into each citizens pockets (income tax cuts); by helping them to adjust to be less dependent on carbon (tax credits for new windows/new gas or electrical furnace, etc). In the end, citizens have more money in their pocket in the long term, use less carbon, and have more control than now over the extent to which they will incur increasing carbon costs. This makes much more sense than a do nothing "plan" which continues to bleed citizens funds to the oil companies.
[updated Sun Sep 14 19:42:07 -0400 2008]
14 Sep 19:42
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