Not long into the Harper mandate, it was evident that the “phoney war” was on. The Tories would repeatedly throw down the election gauntlet and the Dion Liberals would blink, and blink and blink again.
The Conservatives were generous in identifying legislation as matters of confidence and Canada was almost perpetually on the brink of a federal election.
Liberal parliamentary contortions in the House of Commons have kept the Harper Conservative government alive longer than many expected. An outside look at the pattern of behaviour might lead one to conclude that the Conservatives have a strong upper hand.
A look at the polling, however, shows a political reality different from the dynamic in the House of Commons.
The Nanos Research/Sun Media federal political tracking has consistently shown the Conservatives and the Liberals in a tight race. Harper does have an advantage as to who Canadians think would make the best PM but a significant number of Canadians are parking with unsure and none of the above.
Considering the Conservatives have thrown everything including the kitchen sink at the Liberals and they are still mired in a dead heat must make one pause. If attacks ads, tax cuts, and being recognized as a competent and a solid government by average Canadians isn’t enough to win support for the Conservatives, what will?
It would seem that the Conservatives have still not shed the attitude or tone of an opposition party. They have been masterful in their daily tactics and attacks but more than two years into their mandate, the average Canadian would likely be hard pressed to describe what a Stephen Harper Canada would look like in ten years.
What seems to be missing is the ability to pull those policy threads together into a politically consumable, positive and succinct vision for Canada. Until that emerges, even with the tough election talk, the Conservatives going into an election will be vulnerable. Polling during the last election showed that mistrust of the Liberals propelled the Conservatives into power but in the next federal election the Conservatives will have a record to defend.
Also of note, in the province of Quebec where the mistrust of the Liberals was most intense, the Conservatives made a breakthrough. However, this fall season may not necessarily bring fair political weather for the Harper government. If the Bernier affair flares up in the fall in committee, it may spell trouble for the Tories in Quebec. Add the Elections Canada campaign spending investigation and the Cadman tapes to the mix and there are many fires for Harper to fight.
One advantage Harper does have is the current political narrative on Liberal Leader Stephane Dion. The polls have Dion trailing Harper personally, the Conservatives have been relentless in their attacks and the Green Shift plan has not yet yielded a bounce in the polls.
Even for Canadians who are open to the environmental message, the Green Shift sounds very much like a tax plan. It’s not surprising the Conservatives have gone on the tax attack and undermined the ability of the Dion Liberals to launch an aspirational environmental message.
Because a sense of urgency has not been conveyed to voters, staking Liberal fortunes on the environment as an election winner is a risky strategy.
So - there you have it. Both Harper and Dion face greater risks than their rhetoric suggests. The phoney war and tough talk will continue, but a reasoned quiet look at the numbers tells a different story.
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
To sound like a broken record, elections are LOST and rarely won. So it is up to... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 21 Jul 05:53
I must agree with Nik on the present situation as it present it self.As a Conser... more
Jan from Whitby (Ontario) 21 Jul 06:51
It is easy to jump on board and criticize Harper and the Conservative government... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 21 Jul 08:11
Larryl and TPQ------I believe I can answer you both as your themes are similar.A... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 21 Jul 19:04
Actually - I think most people just don't check this site much any more. :) Rec... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 12 Aug 15:18
Tom Good this is a very good commentary, you have put it very clearly. ... more
Jan from Whitby (Ontario) 21 Jul 06:53
Comments
dbeauvais
It's only july and Hopefully Dion and company can explain the Green shift a bit better before the house resumes.It's a complicated plan on the surface but if delivered strongly enough and correctly this thing will fly and fly well. My sense on the street is that many people are ready to make some sort of commitment to climate change.After a visit to rural ontario for two weeks I sense also that people are a bit bewildered with the harper government, and quite frankly a little worried. It seems some think that the Liberals may not been as bad after all in the roll of the Devil we knew as opposed to the devil we didn't. After two years of Harper people are still not able to firmly stand behind this guy and I think for very good reason.
[updated Mon Jul 21 02:28:34 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 02:28
35 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
To sound like a broken record, elections are LOST and rarely won. So it is up to Harper to lose and how is he going to do that???? I would suggest on the broad "look", the Conservatives have painted themselves as rather self-righteous while not recognizing the diversity that makes up Canada. I even wonder, when the Conservative percentages do not move up, if this government is truely Conservative and representing the traditional values of the broader Conservative base. To govern for any length of time, the conservatives have to govern as liberal-Conservatives but they are giving different signals that are not prompting the broarder electorate of Canada to rally "to the cause". Nik, you suggest the changing climate in Quebec, Elections Canada case, Cadman case and I would add the Order of Canada for Morgentaler and the indifference to the plight of Canadians abroad with the Brenda Martins case and now Omar Khadr imprisonment in the infamous Guantanamo Bay.
The major energy of this government seems to be directed to winning power and holding power and almost not listening to parliament. The rationale of Conservatism has always been limited government, lower taxes and defending personal liberties for ALL------some have received a good first step but have the conservatives adopted a major goal to destroy the Liberals, polarize the electorate and hoping they will end up with a larger share come the election in 15 months time ? I would say that has great "backfire" potential. In BC we have a government claiming the Liberal colours and name but they are Conservative. In Ottawa, we have a government claiming the Conservative colours and name but are they something else ????
I believe the Conservatives must show they can properly manage big government and the nonsense in the House suggests something is to be desired. They must address their traditional roots of small business and not allow the wealthy to "buy" government, they must recognize the diversity in their own party and within the country of Canada. They stand for family values without dredging up contentious social issues, they should stand for health care, address the tax code, education and they should stand for principle and not how to defeat the Liberals. I am not holding my breath ! ! !
[updated Mon Jul 21 05:53:31 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 05:53
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Jan from Whitby
I must agree with Nik on the present situation as it present it self.As a Conservative I'm a bit fearfull that if there is not a big shift in Conservative behaviour the next election can very well turn out in favour of a Liberal minority, and were are we then?
[updated Mon Jul 21 06:51:30 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 06:51
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hollinm
It is easy to jump on board and criticize Harper and the Conservative government for not having a vision or capturing the public's imagination.
However, let's remember that the Liberal party has been in power for 70 of the last 100 years. They have governed Canada by buying peoples' votes with their own money and have created a country where citizens are not naturally inclined to take personal responsibility but instead want cradle to grave government services. In other words a left leaning socialist society. The Liberals with their tax and spend policies have been more than happy to oblige.
Over the years various Liberal governments have done some good things on the social front. However, many programs were ill conceived, polyanna in nature and infringed on provincial jurisdiction and subsequently turned into a waste of taxpayers money. However, the electorate gave them credit for trying. In turn the Liberal party with their effective spin machine developed a brand which is still a powerful force in Canadian politics.
So Harper is up against 3 left leaning political parties in the House of Commons and a Liberal dominated Senate. He has had much difficulty in getting his agenda through because the opposition parties are intent with the help of the Senate to ensure the Conservatives have little by way of accomplishment to take to the people in the next election. Critics say he should have been more concilliatory in negotiating with the opposition parties. How can you be more concilliatory when the opposition want to gut virtually every piece of legislation and make it into their own as if they were the government?
Having said that the Conservatives who have reason to be wary of the left leaning media in this country have adopted a communications strategy which is misguided and down right silly. In a day and age of instant communications to not aggressively explain its positions in cogent and believable terms is virtual political suicide.
Initially the media and the opposition parties sat by waiting their opportunity. That opportunity came when the government did not manage the faux scandals well and the media and the opposition parties pounced with daily outrageous claims, columns, biased headlines and negative spin. All the while the Conservatives stayed virtually silent.
Unless Harper can change his perceived image, improve the communications strategy and make reasonable nice with the media he will have to fight not only the oppostion parties in the next election but the electronic and print media who are anxious to see the Liberals returned to power.
The one gift the Liberal party has given Mr. Harper and it really is his ace up his sleeve and that is electing Stephane Dion as leader of the Liberal party.
Everybody suggests it was the attack ads which defined Dion after becoming leader. I reject that notion. I believe they were the catalyst but Dion through his words and actions since becoming leader that has reinforced the notion that he is weak. That is why the electorate accepted the Conservative attack ads a reflection of Dion. If the opposite were true the ads would not have worked.
So Canadians will have an option come the next election; Harper or Dion. Neither of them are going anywhere in the near term. This idea that a leader needs to be cuddly and warm making us all feel good is nice to have but I will take competence over those characteristics. We are electing a leader not a beauty pageant contestant and Canadians need to assess the measure of each man, look at the policies and make an informed decision come the next election.
[updated Mon Jul 21 08:11:49 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 08:11
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Bernie
There is too much emphasis placed on the personality of the lead actors. If we put our trust in person of the leader we will be disappointed. All persons are flawed and politicians, especially leading ones, are particularly afflicted. If we vote for them because they are 'leaders' then we get what we deserve.
We should look only to their policies, and not the policies they espouse, but the ones they are likely to follow once they get in, especially if they get a majority. The policies they employ , we have to glean from our own observations, picking out their true intentions from their hidden agendas, hints from their previous writings and speeches, coupled with those, whom you know, who have had closer contact and whom you have trust in.
I trust that Elizabeth May's intentions are good, but there's no hope of becoming PM or having a important impact on the political scene as yet.
Jack Layton also has no chance of forming governmant but if he played his cards right could possibly hold the balance of power. He hasn't shown that he has what it takes to position his party forward enough to make a significant contribution. He has some good policies but he doesn't sell them.
That leaves the other two parties. I have yet to make a firm decision on the Liberals or the road they plan to take us on. Their problem is, as I see it, that they haven't confidence in their own plan. They are afraid to vigorously promote their agenda. It appears that they are afraid that the public will not accept, which means to me that they are more concerned about their party image than about Canadians at large.. That`s a mistake. If they have a good agenda and it`s paralell with Canadians wishes they will have no problem getting accepted. Forget themselves and their party and think of Canadians would be my advice to them.
To say that`s impossible is nonsense, that Canada is made up of diverse regions.
That argument would also follow for provinces, for municipalities, for heavens sake, even within families. That doesn`t preclude good governance.
My hestitancy, in knowing where those other parties stand or where they plan to go, ceases when it come to this present Conservative party. I have no doubts about Harper`s intentions and how he would try to impliment them if he were to receive a majority.
It is a corporate agenda and he will do what he can to foster that agenda to the benefit of the corporate world and to the detriment of Canadian citizens. He has no interest in what the people want. Because he is in a minority position he teases the public with little tidbits to give the appearance being `with the people`; just keep them content until he finds some way to sneak through with a majority.
His enthusiasm for proting that agenda may be a liitle curtailed with the election of a new administration in the US in November.
I don`t believe the Canadian voters will ever give him a majority.
[updated Mon Jul 21 08:16:48 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 08:16
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MRM
While I agree with the general premise of the article I do not agree with some the conclusions arrived at within it. First of all the statement that:
“Considering the Conservatives have thrown everything including the kitchen sink at the Liberals and they are still mired in a dead heat must make one pause.”
From where I am viewing things it is the Liberals who have “thrown everything” at the Tories by manufacturing scandal after phony scandal and they cannot get over minority territory in the polls. I believe given the events of the past year for the Tories to have a slight lead in the polls is a small miracle and a testament to just how much Canadians dislike Dion and distrust the Liberals.
It also unfair to judge the Tories on the bar that:
“the average Canadian would likely be hard pressed to describe what a Stephen Harper Canada would look like in ten years”
I would be willing to bet that the average voter would be hard pressed to describe what a Dion Canada would look like in ten years either or a Martin or Chrétien government for that matter. The truth is while political pundits spend a good deal of time on these types of academic questions the average Canadian does not and certainly does not determine how they will vote based the answer to them.
Another assumption that I think is incorrect is that the so called Bernier affair will hurt the Tories in Quebec. All indications in the press and polls are that it has not and likely will not. I also think that the Cadman affair will be over by the Fall and if it wraps up with a big payout and public apology for the Liberals it will hurt them, not the Tories. As for the EC situation, my sense is that it will quietly go away and the Tories will eat the cost of the ads? Only assumptions but just as likely to happen as any other assumptions made on these issues.
The bottom line in an election for me is the Dion factor. I do not believe that Canadians have confidence in him. In English Canada he is viewed as somewhat of a bumbling professor and he remains highly distrusted in Quebec. So once that large undecided bloc steps into the voting booth I predict that vast majority of them will vote Harper or at least anything but Dion.
[updated Mon Jul 21 09:05:16 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 09:05
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Graham Watt
the Conservative's dilemma may be that tactics alone, in love or politics are never enough to win a fickle heart. And when the tactics are largely borrowed from a neighbour, they seem manufactured rather than from original thinking. As someone said, "if you can fake sincerity, you've got it made". Might this explain the reticence of Canadians largely to give Stephen Harper leave to govern with a majority? As an example, Stephane Dion, after months of surviving using the Ali rope-a-dope technique, came out with a wild roundhouse Green Shift swing, which for all its complexity and vulnerability, had a ring of honesty to it. Dion's main problem is not Stephen Harper, but shaking the media in general from its predilection for typecasting political leaders without constant re-evaluation. Again, as in love, the daring and risky maneuvre often wins the fickle heart because it is closer to honesty than the borrowed tactic.
[updated Mon Jul 21 10:59:16 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 10:59
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Non-aligned in Toronto
So far the general malaise with the two major parties has not translated into any sustained move to a third. The Greens enjoyed a brief burst of double digit popularity that now seems to be dissapating somewhat. The Bloq is stalled pretty much at or below average Historical values. Some polls have shown the NDP up a tick or two, but certainly not within breakthrough range. (IMO the NDP would need to get around 23 to 25% in order to elect as many MP's that the percentage of votes =the % of MPs (ie: 25% of the vote = 77 MPs). Even to elect 50+ they would need over 21%. 17.4% last election only got them 30.
The conservatives carry the baggage of an unloved leader who is viewed as manipulative and humourless. Even when he smiles it appears forced. They also carry the baggage of a weak caucus, and an accident prone cabinet.
The Liberals have not fully recovered from Adscam, and Dion's failure to stand up to the Conservatives appears to voters to be cowardly. The Green Shift has been successfully if dishonestly branded as a money grab rather than a tool to fight GHG. In fact Dion's failure to establish emission reduction goals make this criticism all too believable.
I will watch with interest the upcoming by-elections at least one of which (Westmount) must be called this week. I would assume that both Quebec by-elections will be called for the same day. The Ontario seat needn't be called until January, and may or may not be included.
[updated Mon Jul 21 15:59:10 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 15:59
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westerner
The Green Shaft Plan is a Tax Grab Plan and will do little to reduce GHG. Dion has abandoned the Kyoto Agreement he insisted Harper follow and has not set any GHG reduction targets. This Plan will be the largest government imposed shift in wealth from the west to central Canada in the country's history. It is shameful!!
[updated Mon Jul 21 18:26:38 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 18:26
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True North
The problem I have with Harper is that I do not know whether he really believes what he is saying and acting upon or is it just part of his strategy to gain that which he most wants - a majority in the next election. Examples: 1. Does he really believe that the Quebecois should constitute a nation or was it just a great strategic move to gain the vote of the Quebeckers and he was really indifferent whether they constituted a nation or not. 2. Harper's sudden conversion to recognizing the reality of climate change in December 2006 is most suspicious. Was his conversion based on a reading of the polls on what Canadians were most concerned about or was it a genuine turn-around? Harper comes across as a cold, calculating individual, sometimes angry, one too clever by half and that makes me most uncomfortable. I cannot relate to him.
In addition, the attack ads of the Conservatives do not endear me to the party and to Harper for these ads must have had his stamp of approval. To make fun of Dion and portray him as a cartoonish character is cheap politics and does nothing to engage Canadians in serious debate on the issues facing Canada; they rather obfuscate and derail
people from thinking about the real issues. Dion has consistently said that he will not take part in negative politics. I fully support him in that strategy; it is honest politics and that is what I look for.
True North
[updated Mon Jul 21 20:49:58 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 20:49
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gerry l
Stephen Harper heads a government in trouble. Rolling in cash used to define it's main rival, in control of the levers of power for two years and controlling the nation's agenda for this period have yielded nothing in terms of political advancement - indeed, Conservatives have less popularity today than the party achiveved during the 2006 election.
The conclusion is inescapable: Voters turfed the Liberals into a time-out and elected Harper as caretaker of a minority until appropriate penace was served. This being accomplished, the Liberals are poised again to assume their historical role as the inevitable governing party with Tories reverting to their traditional function as responsible opposition.
The Canadian political universe unfolds as it always has.
[updated Mon Jul 21 23:01:18 EDT 2008]
21 Jul 23:01
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Nigel
Hi Nick;
I agree with you on most of this, but when you say the Conservatives have no vision for the future, I think you miss the point. They do have a long-established one...NO GOVERNMENT WHEREVEVER POSSIBLE. Whether with nuclear safety, the new hands-off CRTC, the abandonment of Canadians in prisons abroad, their policy is clear: LITTLE OR NO GOVERNMENT IS GOOD GOVERNMENT. While they are in power, and Dion fiddles, the Tories are slashing and burning like there is no tomorrow, so we can be left with a fait accompli...that is why, even in Quebec, the NDP is gaining astonishing credibility...including two major labour leaders in the East End of Montreal who might normally have gone to the Bloc but haven't.
Nigel
nigelGspencer@hotmail.com
[updated Tue Jul 22 08:00:43 EDT 2008]
22 Jul 08:00
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
I wonder how the US election will affect Harper's copycat policies since its unlikely his parent party is going to win.
It may also change the dynamics of an upcoming Canadian election. My POV is that Canadians are tired of the Bush administration and see the Harper bunch as a clone of that government.
It will also slow down the North South 3 amigos integration he and Bush are day dreaming about.
[updated Tue Jul 22 09:45:38 EDT 2008]
22 Jul 09:45
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Foxer
Personally - I think Canada is holding it's breath a little.
I think they've seen harper now and are saying "Ok, he's not so scary. But - what is he going to do for us in the future? He's not really done anything really earth shattering so far". I think people have seen dion and said "I've been a liberal for years, but this guy isn't impressing me - is he going to pull something out of his hat i can really believe in yet, or is he a dud?"
I don't think they've seen much of layton at all, and most aren't sure what his policies are.
They're waiting on an election to actually take the time to look at it and decide. I think they'll want to see the platforms and will look for the 'vision' there.
I think that you can win the people over either with great personality or great platforms. Well - harper doesn't HAVE a personality and while Dion does, it sucks. So it's going to boil down to policy, and we haven't seen a platform yet from the CPC or NDP, and the Libs may have more than just the 'green shift' to play before it's over (they'd better, that one ain't wowing people).
Actually - i prefer it that way a bit. I think it's a mistake to pick a leader based primarily on personality. I'd rather it be about talent and policy any day. But we won't see people come down one way or another till the parties all put their cards on the table, and that won't happen till an election.
I think the debates may be more important than in the past this time out as well.
[updated Tue Jul 22 17:44:54 EDT 2008]
22 Jul 17:44
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080722.winout0722/BNStory/National/home
"OTTAWA — The Conservative Party shifted thousands of dollars in advertising expenses from two of its top Quebec candidates to other Quebec candidates who had more spending room in their 2006 federal election campaigns, the lawyer for Elections Canada has suggested.
A former financial officer for the party confirmed last month in a court examination that expenses incurred by Public Works Minister Christian Paradis and former foreign affairs minister Maxime Bernier were assigned to other candidates."
.............................
The Tory Quebec strategy is sure to be reeling even more after this disclosure of more slime and money laundering activities. Looks good on a party that portrays themselves as MR. Clean
[updated Tue Jul 22 17:50:46 EDT 2008]
22 Jul 17:50
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Eating humble pie chart...
Don't let greedy politicians capitalize on caring ,compassionate people...You really want a green shift ..Vote green.Do something to be heard...Show out of touch politicians we want real change.Vote green...
It may seem like a wasted vote to some, but it would show peoples dissatifaction with the governments failings.....Politicians like to play political games(tax games) to try to distract and depress the public .Throw around mis and dis information as if it were the truth( watch out for african climate change).They play these games to do nothing more then Hurt their opponents and kill peoples passions and dreams for their own financial gains. This is a great way to keep the people suppressed and under control.Let the people fight amongst themselves while leaders pass faulty laws and rules that are unenforceable, simply cause they can!......Until election time when they roll a loaded dice with a lot of false promises and verbal spew. Voters always rolling snake eye's (unless of coarse you bet on them, then the o.l.g. gets it..But what's the difference...lose....lose...lose!
).
Let's quit these daming games and bring a party to the house that stands for real change!!.A party that will represent what people have been screaming at politicians to acknowledge ..It is time for a better way! Innovation,incentives and new technological green initiatives are in demand.Lets scratch that niche .Turn Canada into a lead country .Not a follower to its demise..
It seems to me that the liberals don't even want to win in the next election and the conservatives are beginning to show their true color(grey or GRAY)...These political tax games make me wonder if perhaps no party wants to lead the country at all .After all who wants to run a country heading towards depression .A depression caused by the failure of politicians and leading businesses to listen to a changing world. A world that has been growing around them for years as they continue to raise their walls in ignorance .
An Example can be pin pointed to when the rules were changed to allow the ndp to stay in parliment with 7 percent of the vote , instead of the 9 percent originally needed due to the growing number of green party voters and a confussed parliment..
Another example is with the battle of the Bush election. Where gore went on to capitalize on the growing green front with his global warming spew.True or not...While politicians play games in their make belief world , Who really wants to rule the potential failing economy in the real world ...It is easy to mess everything up in the confusion of self interest and falsifying games ,while searching for more money .It's Even harder for these politicians and trapped business owners to fix the mistakes and the problems they helped create
.Time to swallow some humble pie, and listen to the public for once!! The people are trying to tell you something!!..We are aware of your games...NO MORE!!!!
GreenFish66..........
Let's ask meteorologists one question directed at climate change!..
With all the new weather predicting technology .Is it getting easier or harder to predict the weather??..Are forcasts getting more accurate or harder to make????
Partly cloudy with sunny periods, chance of rain!
[updated Wed Jul 23 12:14:54 EDT 2008]
23 Jul 12:14
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MRM
Anyone who ever doubted that the CBC, our publicly funded national media outlet was a propaganda machine for the LPC and have been manipulating the news in an effort to control the political agenda need do so no more. They have outed themselves and entered two candidates in the Sept by-elections. Both candidates will no doubt be continuing to collect their considerable taxpayer funded salaries throughout the campaign. They decided to run because it was becoming ever more apparent with the rising fortunes of the CPC and the ever sinking fortunes of the LPC that the GG job would no longer be the sole purview of CBC journalists.
[updated Fri Jul 25 00:57:08 EDT 2008]
25 Jul 00:57
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
One of the issues Nik said was a potentially large problem for Tories going into the fall is about to hit them finally. After trying to dodge the bullet and trying to deflect their money laundering in and out scheme scheme beyond another election the courts are ruling against them time and time again. They continue wasting court time that costs taxpayers money when they should simply be explaining to Canadians that their tactics were illegal.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/466806
[updated Fri Jul 25 01:37:20 EDT 2008]
25 Jul 01:37
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=677604
It looks as thought the shift in manufacturing jobs out of Canada has distorted where immigrants locate. The loss of manufacturing jobs in Southern Ontartio has forced many immigrants to go to smaller centers outsdide of the big Cities. This is true of both Vancouver and Montreal also.
The article also gives truth to another lie that foxer tried to foist on us about immigration the other day. He and his truth challenged friend are always slanting lying or fabricating stories that eventually come full circle.
Another lie from them is the fact the Liberals are now at 21% in Crop's last Quebec poll and that is even with or slightly ahead of the Reform (CRAP party
[updated Fri Jul 25 16:00:14 EDT 2008]
25 Jul 16:00
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=680060
"The federal government has posted a budget deficit of $500-million for the first two months of the 2008-09 fiscal year, the Department of Finance said Friday.'
That's an annual of $3BB deficit which makes mince meat of Flaherty's lies once more and will further erode Harper's numbers as people are already nervous about his fiscal regime. And guess what...revenues are down and spending up just as I forecast.
so now we can add dficit monger to the their titles of liars and money launderers. Guess who wil now be on the defensive this coming election
[updated Fri Jul 25 16:06:40 EDT 2008]
25 Jul 16:06
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TPQ (suspended for inappropriate comments)
The tory rhetoric in Ontario is picking up with major announcements this past week and the showing off ministers like Clement and Flaherty on the BBQ circuit and in public with Ontario provincial ministers. An Ipsos Reid VP was just on the radio here saying that reflects Harper's desperatioin in Ontario as their own polls are showing them up to 15% behind the Liberals across the province. He went on to say that "green shift" may actually be consoldiating that vote in Ontario although its still a little early to pronounce accurately on that. He also noted that Dion is coming across much better now and his public appearances are getting much better and he's showing his confidence and comfot levels in public.
He also stated that if those %'s hold up the Liberals are almost guaranteed to win, at a minimum a minority victory in a fall election. He even further mused that ministers like /clements would most likely lose their seats if the numbers continue as is.
The interview was music to my ears.
Ipsos are known tory pollsters also and do a full polling show every saturday evening on CFRB1010 which is a tory branded station.
[updated Sat Jul 26 08:25:26 EDT 2008]
26 Jul 08:25
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Foxer
Looks like the tories can take enough seats in Quebec to win their majority.
As posted here in the national post:
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=677663
The tories stand a strong chance of taking all of the montreal ridings:
"But in Quebec there are now only two parties in the race for the 50 seats outside Montreal -- the Bloc Quebecois, who hold most of them, and the Conservatives, who are challenging them as the competitive federalist party.
The Conservatives won eight of their 10 Quebec seats in 418, and have since picked up another there in a byelection in the Saguenay region.
And that's the point. The 418 isn't just Quebec City, but the North Shore and the South Shore, from Beauce to the Gaspe. The area is at least 95% French-speaking, and has a history of voting massively one way or another."
Looks like they've got strong chances in Ontario's key regions too.
I think harper is praying for dion to call a fall election. I think Dion is just praying. :)
[updated Sat Jul 26 18:10:44 EDT 2008]
26 Jul 18:10
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Foxer
WHILE DION PROPOSES MORE TAXES, CPC MOVES TO INCREASE JOBS IN ONTARIO.
Well well well. While Dion is proposing more than a billion in new taxes for ontario, Harper's gov't is seeing 6 billion spent in improving Ontario's infrastructure and jobs.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=677349
Some excerpts;
"Modern infrastructure is key to providing essential services to Canadians," Mr. Cannon said here at a news conference.
"Substantial infrastructure funding was long overdue in this country. Our government will work with Ontario to identify those infrastructure needs most important to Ontarians."
Targeted funding of $362-million has also been earmarked for smaller cities, with a population of 100,000 or less.
Provincial Finance Minister Dwight Duncan said the program will help create good jobs and strengthen Ontario's economic competitiveness.
"Not only will we create jobs today, but improve productivity in the future," he said
Seems more likely to create jobs and help ontario get itself out of it's problems than taxing them more. I suspect that'll help boost people's confidence that Harper is the better choice for people worried about their jobs.
[updated Sat Jul 26 18:17:47 EDT 2008]
26 Jul 18:17
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larryl
nik. I am sure any one interested in this topic watched Dion on question period to-day. Without letting our personal bias get in the way, I would be interested to know if any opinions have changed or if any one thinks the publics opinion might have have changed in any way.
[updated Sun Jul 27 17:31:08 EDT 2008]
27 Jul 17:31
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larryl
Interesting question on Sympatico /MSN. Since it is a voluntary response and across the country the results from 25,000 is not scientific but the results might be more an indication of the true feelings of the voters. They are not a polling company who might try to influence the opinion of respondents. What we read into the results will vary with our own opinions but it would be interesting to poll our small group for their opinion of the results. If you go to
sympatico.msn.ca you can read the question and see the results. More on my take of the results later.
[updated Mon Jul 28 17:37:26 EDT 2008]
28 Jul 17:37
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Great message Larryl....It won't be easy for two parties (liberals and conservatives) to win a majority this fall election.They have seemed to forget about family values and peoples freedoms .All for the security of a few more dollars in potentially tough times...Created by bad business and politics!..If people feel ripped off or lied to ,they're less likely to give up that dollar!....I think it's time big business and governments go back to grade 3 and play that "Lemonade stand"game again(anyone remember that game ) .......Are they smarter than a 5th grader?
I think it is far past time that the greens and the ndp merge into a new party...How about the NDGP....The New Democratic Green Party!.....That's what the country needs ....Real values!!!
Thank-you for your space and time .....
B.Greenfish66.......
Over and out there from here........
[updated Tue Jul 29 02:21:05 EDT 2008]
29 Jul 02:21
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Foxer
Well - looks like one Party leader has made his choice.
The national post offers the following article:
http://tinyurl.com/5kerh7
Here's the first blurb:
"Tories ready to bait Dion, but will he bite?
Don Martin, National Post Published: Wednesday, July 30, 2008
OTTAWA -Idle speculation suggested the Conservatives would run and hide, delaying Parliament's return for an extra month or two while avoiding votes that would hand the Opposition an opportunity to force an election.
Well, apparently not.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's kickoff for his caucus retreat tonight is being advance-billed as The Dion Dare, a gauntlet he will throw down at Liberal leader Stephane Dion's feet demanding he pull the parliamentary plug this fall or back away from his chronically empty election bluster until next year.
The government has lurched sharply into election hawk territory in the past week, officially declaring there is no Throne Speech plan to extend the summer recess, no scrapping of a fall economic update, even if it's filled with lousy fiscal news, and vowing no hesitation over introducing confidence measures that, if voted down, would send MPs to the polls."
It continues. (see national post for details)
So, it looks like if Dion wants an election then Harper is prepared to roll the dice and take the chance. We'll have to wait and see if Dion and the other opposition parties will pick up the gauntlet this time, probably after the by elections.
[updated Wed Jul 30 19:14:29 EDT 2008]