The Bernier Resignation - Is it more than political "eye candy"? (Video Blog Post)

The Bernier scandal is the beginning of the end for Mr. Harper's claims to leadership superiority over Mr. Dion. Harper appointed this light-weight in a hapless attempt to shore up Quebec support for the failed Afghanistan war. Fat chance.

For sure, the economy is the issue, and the Tories' attacks against Ontario demonstrate profound ignorance. What was the benefit of that?

How Mr. Harper gains Canadians' favour when it comes to "leadership" and "competence" is beyond me.

[updated Fri May 30 00:19:23 EDT 2008]

I have to agree with you that the Bernier affair will not resonate with the public although the opposition and the media will make every effort in their attempts to damage the Harper government as much as possible.

There is so much hatred for Harper personally and his tightly scripted PMO many journalists want to hoist him on his own petard as often as possible. Why the hatred? Because Harper will not play the media game of helping them play gotcha journalism. So the journalists have to work harder to find out the news. That ticks them right off.

Having said that the Bernier affair should have been dealt with more quickly after the background of Ms. Couillard was discovered. The PMO should have recognized that coupled with the gaffes Mr. Bernier has made would have made him cannon fodder for the media and the opposition parties. Harper did his best to support his Minister for as long as he could but the Minister was the author of his own demise.

Harper cannot invent MPs. He can only choose from the MPs elected to make up his cabinet. At the same time he has to consider regional, ethnic, gender etc. when building the cabinet. In fact when appointing Fortier to the Senate to get Montreal representation the government is still being criticized two years later for that appointment.

People speculate that Harper picked Bernier for Foreign Affairs because of his desire to woe Quebecers. Even if that is so Bernier had the responsibility to do the job just like all other cabinet ministers. He blew it and paid the price. However, Quebecers love a good sexually titillating story and Bernier will run and get re-elected in the Beauce. In the long term Harper will continue to enjoy support within the Quebec regions.

In the meantime the Liberals will go over the top like they usually do crying wolf at every opportunity and the public simply ignores what the Liberals call scandal.

The Conservatives will continue to govern at least until the fall and if Dion develops the gonads we will have a Fall election.

The campaign will be about leadership. However, the Liberals will try to distract the electorate reminding them of these so called scandals, the secrecy of the government etc. etc. However, Canadians will be interested in the bread and butter issues and the party who they feel will handle the economy and keep their taxes low will be elected.

[updated Fri May 30 00:55:51 EDT 2008]

Bernier got into trouble in part by Harper reacting to an ever increasing depth on the Liberal front benches. Rae and Ignatieff's performance in the Commons and in the media have allowed Liberals to legitimately claim a team approach to opposition and it's working - the party seems more of a government in waiting than any time since the election.

To counter the perception of a one man show, Harper loosened the reigns to his tightly controlled ministers which, in the case of Bernier, eventually highlighted the absence of cabinet depth.

[updated Fri May 30 01:15:38 EDT 2008]

The longer a government stays in power, the greater the chance for scandal of some sort or another. Scandals of this nature are not good for the health/perception of government but, at least, Bernier's former girlfriend was no Gerda Munsinger. Bernier made a ministerial mistake and did not exhibit good personal judgement giving good cause for dismissal and will provide a juicy week or two for the media and opposition. I believe I am correct in saying he continues to be very popular in Beauce and he carried the riding with the greatest plurality in the province at the last election.

Bernier's lack of attention to the expectations of office may well cause a concern for Conservative fortunes in Quebec depending on who his replacement may be in Cabinet. His personal choice of female companionship will cause no more upset than such scandals in the past for example, Francis Fox and his girlfriend's medical procedure.

I believe Canadians have greater issues on their minds, as they should, for the Government of Canada to address.

[updated Fri May 30 02:39:24 EDT 2008]

I have to disagree that this is just "eye candy". While Canadians are generally not preoccupied with matters of national security, I would think that many would find it troubling that a senior cabinet minister would leave sensitive documents lying around. The only thing that may work in the Conservative's favour is the media's focus on the attractiveness of Ms Couillard, which is trivializing an otherwise serious issue. I think the most important question to be asked is, why did it take five weeks for this document to be retrieved?

Even if this isn't the issue that brings the Conservatives down, you must start to question the leadership abilites of the Prime Minister when he places in a senior position a person who was clearly over his head from the beginning, all for short-term political gain in Quebec.

[updated Fri May 30 06:53:52 EDT 2008]

I am not familiar with the expression "eye candy" but from the context I can guess the meaning. My reaction to this latest episode of bad governance may not parallel that of the general public. Most voters may not place significant political importance on this one incident. Much like they haven't on other singular indescretions. The accumulative effect of all those incidences maybe a deciding factor.

I believe I have a more accute sensitivity to governance, especially bad governance, than most voters. They don't to have a flair for detecting incidents of bad governance, nor a degree of revulsion by them.

Political people are no more perfect than we are. Mistakes and temporary failures will occur. If these are dealt with appropriately there is no serious fallout from them. People are generally understanding.

The trouble with this government is that they are too uptight, too insecure, afraid to admit they made a mistake. If they would only relax, open up and admit they made a mistake and make a humorous commentary about their mistake they would appear more human and people would accept that and quickly forget it.
Instead those incidents become larger and more drawn out than they need be, by the governments negative reactions. Deny, deny, deny is their only modus operandi.
Which equates to "they can't be trusted".

[updated Fri May 30 08:16:57 EDT 2008]

Unlike many of "les scandales du jour" over the last year, this one has caught the public attention for many of the reasons you described. Most of the others: Cadman, Linda Keen, Elections Canada, In and out, etc. ad nauseum were dry and of more interest to political junkies like us. The Bernier "affair" is juicy in a tabloid sort of way. Nothing like a bit of prurience to make Joe and Jane Average sit up and take notice. A little sex and a lot of decolletage trumps alleged bribes and civil servant firings hands down.

And to make the recent mis-step (Harper Himself this time though his Aide is taking the fall) over the position of the Italian PM on Afghanistan, while the glazed eyes of the public are momentarily focussed, will get some legs as well.

The leadership edge on competance for the Harper Gov't may at least temporarily take a beating.

However in the longer term, since we will not see an election until at least the fall, and since there are rumours that Harper may prorogue again, which would mean late winter early spring before an election might become probable, you have to think that this will not have an overall effect UNLESS the Harperites continue to cock-up like this every couple of weeks like they have been.

The CPC gov't has been rudderless and adrift for almost a year now. I don't think they expected to have avoided an election this long, and they are not improvising well.

[updated Fri May 30 09:28:07 EDT 2008]

While I agree that a "one-man show government", "the bench is not deep", and "Cabinet is always changing" narratives are very real potential consequences, I believe, Nik, that you've touched on some potential others.

Harper's key calling cards are: Leadership, Accountability, and Integrity.

The world stage had been pretty good to Harper so far where Leadership is concerned (particularly after the low bar on appearing Prime Ministerial set by Chrétien and Martin). But even as you state Nik, this is the second trip abroad in a row that does not go well for the PM.

Again, not to mention your competitors, but other polling released since this CPAC broadcast indicates a level of satisfaction with the government that not only is in freefall over the last six months, but also below 50%. As well over 60% of Canadian feel our current government is doing a bad job on each of Accountability and Integrity.

The fact that pollsters have started asking questions beyond: "Who do you feel is the best leader?" is a telling sign.

Following the upcoming Cabinet Shuffle, Harper will be on his third Minister of FA since taking office. Again, not the best indicator of Leadership, domestically or internationally.

I'm not as sure as you are that this isn't a blow for the PM. First of all, on pride alone, Harper had to swallow hard before Bernier went bye-bye!

But that said, I believe we've hit a point where the cumulative effect of things (Emmerson, Fortier, income trusts, Navdeep Bains, Linda Keen, EcoJustice, Amnesty International, C-10, sneaked-in immigration policy, everything Bernier, everything global warming, Soudas, Bill Casey, O'Connor, butting heads with Gen. Hillier, three choice referenda, Adrian Measner, Atlantic Accord, muzzling of scientists, changes to access to information, and so on...) is starting to weigh.

Canadians do see a resignation and that is something that tends to stick! However, given the media hype, Ms Couillard's looks, and TV interviews that were national events, I think Canadians are seeing MUCH more; particulary when they witness continued evasion and non-answers from the government during newsclips since "the interview".

As such, I do think there is more of a chance of transference of this onto Harper that you do. It is already happening somewhat on the issue of judgment rather than leadership. After all, the first in a pack of lemmings is decisive when it jumps, but it still jumps to its death (likely not the best use of judgment even though leadership was evident).

To date, no other previous Conservative gaffe has been frontpage news for so long. That should say something.

What I really do agree with however is your statement that the political party that can show it is concerned about the issues will be rewarded in the long term.

Based on your polling, health care, jobs/economy, and gas prices are three fastest rising concerns.

On health care, we're all still waiting for the Conservatives to fully implement their health wait-times guarantee in all the areas they promised during the campaign.

On jobs/economy, we've just recorded our first negative quarter and Min of Finance Jim Flaherty, according to the rumour mill, can't get out of that portfolio fast enough. He's begging the PM to switch with Prentice.

On gas prices, Jim Flaherty keeps on trying to convince Canadians that the 2% GST reduction counts as an actual tax cut on the approximate 28% of the cost of gas that is government tax (before GST). Essentially he's telling Canadians: "Y'all got your GST cut so shut up already!". If he hadn't spent the cupboard bare, he'd be able to take action on this front.

Finally, on the subject of the Environment, which is still in third place, the Conservative position is indefensible. The provinces are showing way more leadership.

Given this, I fail to see at the moment how the CPC is positioned to be the party that will convince Canadians that they care about voters' issues, so the field is open for the Liberals should they wish to occupy the space.

[updated Fri May 30 20:29:33 EDT 2008]

Canada’s international reputation is being ruined by an incompetent government and the best you can come up with is eye candy.

This latest mess by the Harper government only highlights the total incompetence of this Prime Minister and his right wing ideology. This government must be replaced, and investigations should be opened to determine the following:

1 What role did the conservative party play in the decision by Giuliano Zaccardelli to open an investigation on income trust n the middle of the election campaign? It is widely accepted that this announcement lead to the election of this government.

2 The Cadman affair, there is not doubt that the former conservative fund raiser, has a decided advantage not to call investigations into shady dealings by his own party.

3.The interference in the American politics by the P.M.O.

If these questions are investigated as truthfully and thoroughly as the Liberals investigated the sponsorship affaire; Steven Harper might be the first former Prime Minister to face criminal charges and Maxime Bernier role in this whole mess would be praised for finally bringing public attention to the machinations of this conservative dictatorship.

[updated Sat May 31 09:47:58 EDT 2008]

Harper got rid of a minister who was screwing up. Replacing him will be a challenge as the talent pool in caucus is deep from the west but not so in the east. Just a head count thing, not a slam on anyone.

As far as being an issue with legs, it a non-starter. I'm sure another non-issue bone will be dug up soon for liberal dogs to chase.

[updated Sun Jun 01 00:15:11 EDT 2008]

Nik:

I've thought about it more and I think that the possible answer to your question is as follows:

We don't know yet if it is more than eye-candy, but there is a definite sense out there that when we'll look back on this, the Bernier Affair might just be deemed to have been the "the tipping point" (as Malcolm Gladwell explains in his book of the same name) for this Government.

[updated Sun Jun 01 13:57:01 EDT 2008]

The Tories are really grasping at straws to deflect their stupidity over the Bernier bobble.

This one really smacks of serious desperation:
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=6d709a5c-e285-4d7c-ad5a-361498918b79

"Finley also wrote a letter to the Canada Revenue Agency, requesting that it review the charitable status of the Shamba foundation.

A registered charity cannot be involved in partisan political activities, under Canada Revenue Agency guidelines, including the direct or indirect support of a candidate for public office.

Kennedy, however, says the fundraising venue was completely paid for in a transaction with GlobAlive Communications Corp, a telecommunications company that started the Shamba foundation.

He said the invitation incorrectly identified the venue as the charitable foundation, creating the confusion.

Kennedy said the only connection with the Shamba foundation was that the space has become associated with the charity because the group uses it.

He said GlobAlive rents its spaces - including that site - commercially to both charities and private users.

"It certainly smells like a desperate kind of attempt by the Conservatives," Kennedy told Canwest News Service on Sunday night.

"We did not rent from the Shamba foundation," Kennedy said, adding that not "a nickel of their money" had gone toward his fundraising efforts.

"It's just a simple commercial transaction," he said."

WOW!!!

[updated Mon Jun 02 07:01:24 EDT 2008]

Nik:

Now that about a week has gone by, I'm pretty sure this is no longer eye-candy.

The Conservatives, and Harper especially, have been pretty much unanimously eviscerated in the global press, national press, the Sunday political shows... and this particularly in Quebec.

On Les Coulisses du pouvoir, it was stated that the scandal appeared in 575 media (including The Daily Telegraph, CNN, Fox News, Al Jazeera (sp?), Info Suisse, the Daily Mail, The New York Times, La Stampa, Libération and Figaro) in 44 countries!!!

Yikes!

...And the story followed Harper wherever he went on his tour... and they showed some of the headlines.

Woohoo!

Anyone complaining of CBC bias would be on the floor in the fetal position, rocking themself calm, with some of the doozies out there such as "Canadian foreign minister resigns after leaving documents with Hell's Angels" -- Daily Telegraph -- and "Minister resigns after leaving files with 'biker chick' " -- Daily Mail.

The story posted on CNN was straightforwarded but included only two hyperlinks, one of them being "Hell's Angels".

But as people here like to say, it had no impact and will blow over -- because having the words "Canadian foreign minister", "resigns", and "Hell's Angels" all in one headline is something NOBODY would notice (giggle).

1,000,000 people in Quebec watched the TVA interview and the "7 jours" magazine in which the Couillard story appeared had DOUBLE its normal circulation, but I'm sure NOBODY in Quebec noticed either (giggle)

Michel C. Auger likely said it best (the following is my best translation of what he said):

"The Conservatives have yet to find their crisis exit strategy because everyone has understood that the problem is not Mr Bernier's judgment but rather it is the judgment of Mr Harper which is in question. This is the first time we can say that there is something that very clearly indicates that there is a problem with the leader of the government. The incident in Italy, as well as the Bernier affair can be directly dropped onto Mr Harper's front porch. This is bad because his ace card, in case a snap election needed to be called, always has been leadership. It was him vs Mr. Dion. Now it is more difficult. As Chantal (Hébert) said the crisis exit strategy has not been found because leadership problems are not solved by the wave of a magic wand."

"Nothing has convinced anyone who hasn't voted for Mr Harper before to vote for him next time"

This was followed by Chantal Hébert emphatically adding: "The Conservatives are but one good Liberal summer away from becoming unelectable".

Ouch!

They alwasy say that in politics, when people start laughing AT you, you're toast. The worl

[updated Mon Jun 02 12:49:22 EDT 2008]

To All,

A little off topic but I just noted on the CTV site that Alexa McDonough has retired from politics. Regardless of ones political stripe I think that we can all agree that she was a great contributor to the Canadian political scene. She was also always a staunch advocate for her views and those of her party and a very worthy opponent.

I hope that all will join me in wishing her the best of luck in her new life and thanking her for her service to Canada.

[updated Mon Jun 02 16:00:06 EDT 2008]

Here's the real story about Tory coverups and attack ads:

Jun 10, 2008 04:30 AM
James Travers

OTTAWA — Here's a quick quiz that also asks the next election's ballot question. Which is scarier, an Opposition Leader you don't know much about or a Prime Minister who doesn't want you to know much?

Conservatives figure voters are so uneasy about Stéphane Dion that they'll tolerate being kept in the dark by Stephen Harper. New-age advertising and old-school cover-ups are central to that calculation.

In striking contrast to Barack Obama's positive use of the Internet to build bridges and support, Conservatives are applying its negative force to drive wedges and undermine enemies. A dirty tricks campaign launched as Liberals dither over election timing relies on ignorance for effect. Along with filling in the blanks in Dion's policies and leaving the impression that Liberals, not Tories, engineered the great GST tax grab, the ads insist the party that balanced the federal budget is now hell-bent on spending the country back into deficit.

That's hardball politics played against a softball opponent. Fresh from defining Dion as a rubbery leader, Conservatives are framing his foolishly free-form carbon tax musings to their advantage.

Don't blame Conservatives for taking their best shots at a Liberal leader perpetually pointing at his glass chin. Blame them instead for a being parsimonious with their own truths and, most of all, for slamming shut the government doors they promised, hand solemnly over heart, to throw open.

It's this government's record that makes creating a Liberal diversion so urgent. While Dion's climate change response may prove to be pratfall politics, Harper's intensity targets are widely condemned as lame public policy.

And the fanciful reconstruction of undefined Liberal spending pales in comparison with the dubious but concrete Conservative achievement of turning an inherited budget surplus into a bottom line rounding error.

That's not all Harper is hiding.

Even as he steps up the Dion assault, the Prime Minister is building stone-wall defences around his own exposed flanks. Using minority guerrilla tactics to thwart the will – Conservatives call it the tyranny – of the majority, the ruling party is keeping Parliament from investigating attempts to influence dying Chuck Cadman's vote, the in-and-out funding scheme Elections Canada ruled out of bounds, and the leak of a Canadian diplomatic memo that embarrassed U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama.

Of those, the freshest and yet most pungent is the unfortunately named NAFTA-gate affair. Conservatives know that leak came from Harper's office and will try again today to prevent Liberals from poking at a very sore spot before Parliament's summer recess.

Harper is wise to worry. A spectacle Conservatives don't want voters to witness is a committee asking awkward questions of the Clerk of the Privy Council and the Prime Minister's staff.

First the country's top civil servant, who is also Harper's deputy minister, would have to explain how a three-month investigation failed to find the leak while clearing politicians and blaming blameless bureaucrats. Then advisers would have to convince a skeptical capital that Conservatives didn't risk national interests by playing ideological footsy with U.S. Republicans.

Drawn from the short history of Conservatives in power, that growing list of scandals helps explain the party's need to focus on the real or imagined faults of others. Allowed some introspection, voters could rewrite the ballot question from what Stéphane Dion might do to what Stephen Harper is doing.

James Travers' column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/440137

[updated Tue Jun 10 06:58:12 EDT 2008]