Leadership Tracking - Harper personal image untouched by controversy (Analysis with video)

Nik: a "new" electorate appears to be forming with a "major apolitical swing group" outside the traditional party fold. That group is very fluid. Where they may place their votes possibly will depend upon a political courtship ritual like we have never seen before. It looks like Harper is in the lead but with almost a third of the electorate in the "swinger's" group, that is like trying to hold quick silver in your hands----difficult and dangerous. As you say, to gain the non-committed's attention, it will require a good dose of vision for the future that we have not seen too much of lately with the antics in the House.

[updated Fri May 09 03:47:31 EDT 2008]

Nick, some good points there and there are some things the Liberals and others are doing to move away from the condemnation approach they have been using which while not being direct hits apparently have stalled his numbers. Harper though, has the advantage of being the PM and should be even more solid in the polls using that office, and he isn't. His numbers have stalled and may even be trending down a little and with the undecideds having more weight than his overall popularity I see great openings for the others to define themselves. The carbon tax shift is probably only one of the initiatives the Lberals will roll out over the summer.

If the Liberals can dent Harper though the overall Tory support will fall like a rock and your poll indicates that vulnerability by the large numbers of undecideds.

[updated Fri May 09 04:40:41 EDT 2008]

The Tories have to be very pleased with these numbers for three reasons: First, the opposition tactics of fabricating scandal after scandal has backfired on them and in fact has actually cost them support. Second, while the Tories core support has remained unchanged, there is now a huge undecided pool to try and draw that extra five to ten percent needed for a majority. This means that that pool is made up largely from the waning support of the other parties. And finally, I think that a lot of Canadians tend to vote more for the leader they most like than the party. With the PM out in front by a two to one margin or more on the issues of trust, competence and vision this positions the party very well to tap in into that undecided pool.

[updated Fri May 09 08:35:05 EDT 2008]

This is very good news for the Conservaitves in the aftermath of intense Liberal mudslinging. The Liberals are devoid of new ideas except a carbon tax on gasoline. Given the Liberal attempts to denigrate and slander Conservatives at every opportunity the Conservative support has held firm.

[updated Fri May 09 09:25:13 EDT 2008]

Nik's polling shows that Harper (the teflon PM) continues to be consistently perceived by the public to be better than all of the other leaders when it comes to trustworthiness, vision and competence.

The fact that the numbers for all the other leaders has dropped while the PM's numbers have remained consistent shows that Canadians are questioning their previous support for the opposition leaders/parties and electing to choose the undecided category. This should be of real concern for those leaders.

Dion continues to fail to impress the electorate and in fact his numbers are getting worse with each poll. The message to Dion and the Libs is that focusing on faux scandals, abstaining from voting and failing to put forward the Liberal vision for the country is going to continue to hurt the Liberal party big time.

This is a real plus for the Conservative government. It shows the government is on the right track and while Harper may not be lighting the house on fire the public recognizes he is the best choice among the current leaders' group.

With the musings about a carbon tax Dion has in fact handed Harper a majority government. Dion trying to explain the carbon tax and tax shifting idea will prove to be a disaster. With his broken English, lack of trust in the Liberal Party (adscam), the track record over 13 years of broken promises and the Libs desire to keep taxes the highest among the G7 this will allow the Conservative party to paint a very unflattering picture of Dion and the Liberal Party.

There simply will be no credibility with public when the Liberals promise a revenue neutal scheme which is code for higher taxes.

[updated Fri May 09 10:21:14 EDT 2008]

What I find interesting is the PM rating is same (+/- 1). All the others have dropped. I think it is time for them to show interest in the country, not trying to score political point.

PLEASE stop calling a Royal Commission on everything but the dog. If A.G./RCMP bring up concerns I would support a Royal Commission; in most cases they have been a waste of time, resources, and tax dollars.

[updated Sun May 11 00:18:05 EDT 2008]

Who gives a rodents rear end about "personal image" or "leader"
I'd vote for a tasmanian devil if he presented me with a good policy platform

Stalin, Hitler, Idi Amin, Pol Pot, today's ruler of Burma, George Bush were/are "leaders of their people. No! Thank you! I don't want leaders.
Giev me someone who will follow the peoples' lead.

I don't propose to know what characterisics comprise a "leader" or a good "personal image". I would suggest it takes more than those three covered in the poll.

I find Harper the least trustworthy of the lot. Granted the others are not in a position whereby we have an opportunity to evaluate them as much. When you are not in power not as much attention is paid to what you say or do. So there is a different basis for evaluation. Harper has revealed his untrustworthiness before he became head of his party, while head of his party and even more so since becoming PM.

Nor do I give him a high competence rating. He has made many mistakes since becoming PM. Mistakes a more competent PM would not make.

Who knows what his vision is? I suspect what it is and it is the most reason that I would do what I can to see that he never gets a majority.

[updated Sun May 11 08:47:50 EDT 2008]

I think another issue has cropped up In Quebec for Harper..The right wing ADQ got hammered in each of three byelections there today doing significantly worse than in the last general election. That party is his alter ego there.

[updated Mon May 12 21:59:02 EDT 2008]

Darn! I wish I was the leader of the "None of the Above Party"

[updated Wed May 14 09:42:20 EDT 2008]

Here's the biggest and most hypocritical piece of the accountability act as Harper has exempted a whole whack of people from the prying eyes of the Ombudsman:

"OTTAWA – Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his cabinet have exempted contracts with Parliament and Canada's spy agency from oversight by a new ombudsman's post that was central to the 2006 Conservative election campaign.

The government slipped the exemptions through last week in regulations that empower the contract procurement ombudsman under the Accountability Act – flagship legislation the government introduced as its first bill soon after taking office.

Opposition MPs were taken by surprise at the exemptions, saying they were unaware the Senate, the House of Commons and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service would be excluded from the ombudsman's statutory duty to review contracts for "fairness, openness and transparency."

The exemptions also mean anyone who has a complaint about contracts to supply goods or services to Parliament – including contracts with offices of MPs, senators or CSIS, will be unable to have them reviewed by the ombudsman."

Now that's accountability!!!!!

[updated Mon May 19 18:16:30 EDT 2008]

Here's Nick's latest poll numbers actually showing the Liberals on top albeit by a very slim % much as I had predicted earlier in the week..
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S08-T301.pdf

The days of Harper incompetence are coming to an end.

So much for personal popularity contests.......its the content stupid!!!

[updated Fri May 23 06:15:41 EDT 2008]

I read these numbers with disbelief, because they defy logical analysis. The Tory vision for Canada is virtually identical to the failed Bush doctrine. Support for America’s disastrous wars. Big on the wars against crime and terror, including steamrolling the rights and freedoms of citizens in clumsy attempts to watch everyone, everywhere. Anti-Kyoto, leaving the US and Canada as global pariah states. Deregulation, privatization and lower corporate taxes, because business is good and government is bad. In fact, other than the military, the police and penitentiary staff, who needs it.

Caring for the disadvantaged? Screw them.

I don’t trust Mr. Harper even for a minute. He is a cunning, secretive control freak who attacks and smears his “enemies” with Rove-like viciousness. If he was ever to win a majority, his extreme right wing ideology could wreck havoc on a slew of social programs, from health care to welfare. And say good bye to the CBC, the wheat board and Canada Post.

And I find the man to be entirely incompetent. Mr. Harper has jettisoned Canada’s proud 50-year tradition of peacekeeping in favour of making war. The Tories are on a military spending spree that defies logic. “Modern” weaponry is incredibly expensive and soon obsolete.

Despite our small population, we are 14th in the world in military spending and heading higher. For what? We haven't been attacked in almost 200 years.

Mr. Harper is indeed competent at muzzling his cabinet ministers and bureaucrats. At arming border guards and game wardens, but without an iota of demonstrated need.

[updated Sat May 24 14:13:30 EDT 2008]

The latest TO Star poll has the Tories (34%) with a seven point lead over the Grits (27%).
Given the other data in the poll one can only assume that if an election were called today the Tories may actually get into majority teritority while the Liberals may well slip into non-official opposition range. There is little doubt as to why Dion fears an election but he won't be able to dodge one past the fall without risking a palace coup. That data I spoke of is as follows:

Approval Ratings: Harper 32%, Dion 10%
Preferred Prime Minister: Harper 33%, Dion 11%, Neither 44%
49% do not want the opposition to force an early election
Harper defeats Dion on seven qualities and characteristics

One can only assume that if the undecided were forced to choose today the majority would not choose Dion. This fact will bode well for both the Tories and the NDP.

[updated Sun May 25 18:59:40 EDT 2008]

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/429906

Here's the first of a series of articles by Canada's largest newspaper highlighting the secrecy Harper operates under. If one believes in democracy this stifiling of the freedom of expression has got to piss off people greatly and I'm glad to see the Star exposing this.

[updated Mon May 26 06:11:39 EDT 2008]