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Leadership Tracking - Harper personal image untouched by controversy (Analysis with video)
The latest tracking from CPAC and Nanos Research indicates that regardless of recent controversies in the media faced by the Harper government, there has been no impact on the Prime Minister’s personal image. However, an increasing number of Canadians are unsure or select “none of the above” when it comes to chosing the federal leader who is the strongest on trust, competence or vision. Stephen Harper continues to rate strongly on competence.
Select read the full piece to watch the video with the stats and Nik’s analysis.
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Nik: a "new" electorate appears to be forming with a "major apolitical swing gro... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 09 May 03:47
Nick, some good points there and there are some things the Liberals and others a... more
parnel (Ontario) 09 May 04:40
Nik's polling shows that Harper (the teflon PM) continues to be consistently per... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 09 May 10:21
This was not parnel's comments but somebody on the Globe thread. However, Parnel... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 14 May 15:33
parnel...you ar so full of s..t. Who asks the questions day after day in QP abou... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 15 May 17:28
So you think Dion is a fair and decent man and by contrast I assume you think Mr... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 19 May 00:37
Comments
Tom Good
Nik: a "new" electorate appears to be forming with a "major apolitical swing group" outside the traditional party fold. That group is very fluid. Where they may place their votes possibly will depend upon a political courtship ritual like we have never seen before. It looks like Harper is in the lead but with almost a third of the electorate in the "swinger's" group, that is like trying to hold quick silver in your hands----difficult and dangerous. As you say, to gain the non-committed's attention, it will require a good dose of vision for the future that we have not seen too much of lately with the antics in the House.
[updated Fri May 09 03:47:31 EDT 2008]
09 May 03:47
47 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
Having such a large number of undecideds has to be worrying for the Tories who only have Harper to run on. Harper is not the leader people think he is. He simply stands out in a very mediocre cabinet and a weak government. That is a good reason for the high % of undecided numbers.
If the swing group has no basic party affiliation( which may have been a good question in the poll) then the swing you mention is there. However, recent polls giving the Tories and Liberals averages of around 33% and 31% with very large numbers of undecided tells me those undecideds may not be tied to any one party.... yet!!
I don't view this as either good or bad news for any of the parties but it does make them focus on what needs to be done and that is good.
[updated Fri May 09 04:49:48 EDT 2008]
09 May 04:49
Tom Good
Morning Parnel: Yes, Harper is the party and this poll says he is the front runner. Yes, the large block of "swingers" have not smiled on any party at the moment and they are unaffiliated or apolitical and this should be cause for big worry for both the Conservatives and the Liberals. It is my contention the "swingers" are presenting a new dynamic to the Canadian electoral scene and are telling the two majors to get down to the business of Canada and stop those House antics. There is a loose parallel to Germany where the bickering majors ignored the electorate and the Greens popped in.--In BC the bickering Socreds and NDP caused the electorate to put the Liberals into the Legislature and the Socreds died out as a party. In the US, the bickering in the Democratic race is a Republican advantage. I believe myself and most voters want to HEAR where the country is headed and how in the next decade then we will decide who will be in the driver's seat.
[updated Fri May 09 05:50:09 EDT 2008]
09 May 05:50
parnel
If one of the two main parties had a charismatic leader his talents wouldn't matter so much. I think Canadians are looking for the next "Trudeaumania" to kick in but no one is on the scene for that.
I frankly don't see harper as a good leader... someone who doesn't delegate authority is usually someone not in control of his own self image. Herper does not delegate well or at all and loves secrecy. All those are danger signals in public life.
[updated Fri May 09 06:29:14 EDT 2008]
09 May 06:29
westerner
Stevie Dion is rated a poor leader everytime a poll is conducted. Harper is clearly more competent and is a decisive leader.l
[updated Fri May 09 09:15:44 EDT 2008]
09 May 09:15
hollinm
westerner try telling that to parnel. He can't accept the fact that the Liberals screwed up big time by electing another Francophone, one who is hated in Francophone Quebec and who is not capable of effectively speaking the language of the majority.
Now Dion is going to run around the country trying to sell people on higher taxes and disguising the discussion as revenue neutral. Yeah right. We know how Liberals love their taxes. As they say the devil will be in the details.
[updated Fri May 09 11:01:13 EDT 2008]
09 May 11:01
hollinm
parnel...there are only two men who potentially can be prime minister of Canada. The current incumbent and your feckless leader.
The Liberals are always looking for the next saviour of the Liberal party. First they had to haul Trudeau out of retirment, then John Turner, then Paul Martin.
What you see is what you get. Harper or Dion. The choice of Canadians is clear. They may not think Harper is charismatic but they sure see him as competent, with a vision and trustworthy.
How's that working out for your leader? We all know the answer to that. 14% and falling is not someone who has endeared himself to the electorate.
[updated Fri May 09 10:56:31 EDT 2008]
09 May 10:56
hollinm
Tom...parnel is a kool-aid drinking Liberal who hates Harper with a passion.
His vigorous attacks show that the Liberals are scared to death of him because he has shown himself to be a formidable foe. Harper is no Joe Clark or Stockwell Day and the Liberals are very worried particularly because they know they made a very bad decision in electing Dion as leader. Dion will be no match for Harper in an election campaign.
So trying to have a reasonable conversation with parnel is a waste of time because no matter what argument you put forward he comes back calling Harper all kinds of names.
[updated Fri May 09 10:51:33 EDT 2008]
09 May 10:51
westerner
The undecided voters will undoubtedly swing to the Conservatives when voters have to pick a decisive leader. Dion is not a leader!!
[updated Fri May 09 09:30:13 EDT 2008]
09 May 09:30
hollinm
Hi Tom:
I am not sure I agree with your point that there is a new electorate.
However, I think what this poll is saying is that Harper continues to be the choice of decided voters. However, with the numbers falling for the opposition leaders Canadians are beginning to question their support for the opposition parties particularly the Liberals.
This is fertile ground for the Conservatives as the next election approaches.
I think the poll also shows that Canadians are not impressed with the shenanigans of the opposition parties and once again it falls on the shoulders of the Liberals. Talking about faux scandals incessantly, failing to vote on serious matters in the House and having a weak leader who is not saleable should tell the Liberals that they need to change their tactics.
[updated Fri May 09 10:30:54 EDT 2008]
09 May 10:30
Tom Good
Morning Hollinm: A "new" electorate-------well, here is my reasoning if you can follow my convoluted thinking. When the questions of this poll---trust, competence and vision---are asked, Harper comes up spades and competence has always been at the top for him. He is capable whether you like his "brand" or not. Now, the next question that was not asked in this poll----Who would you vote for?----This is where the percentages get close with the Conservatives and Liberals in the 30% range. Somehow there is a contradiction here with a gulf between PERCEPTIONS and who would you vote for. This has been true for the term of this government where Harper has consistently topped Dion------so, when it comes to actual voting, why are the two parties so close---is it the Liberal brand in spite of Dion? I believe the large swing vote block is fed up with the Grits and Tories, they have a shopping list and they know it has to be one of those two parties to form a government so they are holding back being not really pleased with either. I believe the unaffiliated voter, in a large fluid block, with a shopping list, will become common in the future and I believe this minority government fiasco has prompted that development. The swing voter is getting smarter, expects more of the political parties, as he should, expects to see the government he is paying for running properly as a modern business and, today, that voter is going to weigh the alternatives right to the day of the election. I believe it is a new dynamic and the major parties need to smarten up and develope acute hearing.
[updated Fri May 09 14:59:45 EDT 2008]
09 May 14:59
hollinm
Hi Tom....I agree with you that there is a reason why the parties remain deadlocked in the polls. It may be as you say.
Anybody watching QP and the shenanagins going on in the House knows that there is something terribly wrong.
At the end I don't believe that the public will buy Dion. They will vote Conservative and vote splitting will be so bad that a minority Conservative government will be elected again. It all depends on what happens in Quebec. It looks like a lot of the Bloc vote is going to be replaced by the Cons if you believe the Quebec Crop polls.
[updated Fri May 09 21:52:22 EDT 2008]
09 May 21:52
Tom Good
I agree Hollinm but I believe the slow drift to Harper---not necessarily a drift to the conservatives--- will result in a Harper majority, a small majority, in 17 months from now. The critical swingers want well managed government with no new taxes. At this date, Harper is known, his management style is known and is his strong point, his programmes are known, mostly accepted but some are strongly contentious. The swingers appear not to be interested in "party"---could be Conservative or Liberal----but they are interested in effective and well managed government attending to the business of the land. This poll suggests Harper is the man when assessing the alternatives but it is Harper mainly---Harper the man and not the party. Barring any serious economic down turns or changes in the Liberal leadership, I suggest the swingers will cut Harper a longer leash and let him strut his stuff with a small majority.
[updated Fri May 09 23:29:32 EDT 2008]
09 May 23:29
parnel
You all seem to forget that the environment is going to be an issue, Dion will package it with a whole vision for the country and may well choose to wait until 2009 for a vote in the hope his vision catches on. Harper can never claim the environment as his and if the Dion plan (still to be unveiled) can catch on he will win big time. Canadians are looking for more than bland good government and want this Country to shine.
Dion has had problems with his communication skills but its not something he has focused on just yet. He has been busy putting the party back together and finally has most of his A team in parliament with him. He has more votes to win than the Tories because the Tories are basically landlocked on the right where there are not sufficient natural conservative votes to win. The Quebec situation is very fluid and I don't beleive the polls there are accurately picking up the mood of the electorate. If Dion somehow manages to catch on he can do serious damage to the BQ who are just about at their past due date. The Tories do not have a long history of success there with some exceptions during the Mulroney years and in the Diefenbaker era.
[updated Sat May 10 08:24:32 EDT 2008]
10 May 08:24
hollinm
parnel..the old saying goes that first impressions count and they are very hard to change. If, as you say, Dion has not been focusing on his communication skills then he is in deep doo doo. Canadians have already taken the measure of the man and they don't like what they see. If you need further evidence review Nik's numbers again. At 13% and 14% in vision, competence and leadership Dion is not even in the running even after the smears they have tried to inflict on Harper.
If the Liberals keep acting the way they are Parliament will not last until 2009. The caucus will never accept a policy of abstention until 09, if Dion polls this badly all summer and into the fall he will lose caucus support.
Harper does not want to claim the environment. However, Dion has a record which he cannot avoid. Also no matter what he calls the carbon tax it is a tax grab that will hurt the economy of the country, hurt middle class and the working poor.
Harper is considered competent, with a vision and provides strong leadership. The Liberals have a leader who cannot effectively communicate anything and certainly has not shown leadership since assuming the helm of the Liberal party. He has a long road to climb and I don't think the public will buy the smoke and mirrors of a carbon tax.
By the way what happened to the following quote:
2006 - Dion on carbon tax
"It is "bad policy," Mr. Dion noted in his environmental platform. It would do nothing to discourage consumption and would penalize all emission generators equally without taking into account the technological cost of fixing their problem. Besides, he concluded, given soaring energy prices, "anything but a prohibitively high tax (would be) a mere nuisance for large producers."
How has his statement changed from just over a year ago???
You see parnel Dion does have a record and with the Cons political machine in full force he will have to defend his flip flops.
About Quebec...It sounds like wishful thinking on your part. Polls are still saying that there is little support for the Libs outside of Montreal.
In normal times Quebec may have been volatile but I think Francophone Quebecs, particularly in the Quebec region, have made up their minds. It's a choice between the Bloc and the Cons. Liberals are not in the equation.
You say...Dion somehow manages to catch on he can do serious damage to the BQ who are just about at their past due date.
After the 400th anniversary and Harper front and centre appearing at various venues speaking about how he sees Quebec's future role in Canada the Libs will be toast.
Dion can run around the country as much as he wants but nobody will be listening. Oh, yes he may get some attention when the environmental plan is introduced but I suggest he will make it so complicated that the media will not understand it and therefore not cover it much.
[updated Sat May 10 10:18:26 EDT 2008]
10 May 10:18
parnel
Its not ok for Dion to flip flop but its ok for Harper and his midget FM to flip flop over Income trusts among other issues that has cost taxpayers and voters in the billions.
Keep those wet deams alive....your analysis on Quebecers is very flawed. I am one and keep closely in touch with the political situation. Most people in Western Canad have little or no understanding of the mindest. People flip flop their votes very regularly. More on that at some other time.
[updated Sat May 10 12:06:29 EDT 2008]
10 May 12:06
hollinm
There is only one major broken promise by Harper and that was the income trust issue. The rest of your statement is pure propaganda because you don't agree with the Conservative agenda.
However, Dion has flip flopped on just about any issue that has come before the Canadian people since he became leader. Here is a sample: carbon taxes, Afghanistan.
By the way the country is still generating jobs, the stock market is doing well and the trade surplus is up. The Libs will have to wait until 09 for the economy to soften and they get their wish.
I agree that I can only go by the polls in Quebec and they have consistently said the Libs are toast in the Regions.
[updated Sat May 10 16:39:01 EDT 2008]
10 May 16:39
westerner
"his midget FM". SHAME ON YOU !! More Liberal LOW LEVEL insults about a persons physical stature. How perfect are you Parnel? Do the Liberals ever stop with the personal insults??
[updated Sat May 10 17:42:46 EDT 2008]
10 May 17:42
MRM
westerner - You have to remember that Parnel's comments are from a midget. A mental midget.
[updated Sat May 10 21:26:07 EDT 2008]
10 May 21:26
parnel
MRM, at least I'm that tall...what's your excuse.
[updated Sun May 11 08:48:25 EDT 2008]
11 May 08:48
MRM
There's that wit thing again. Good one!
[updated Sun May 18 04:36:35 EDT 2008]
18 May 04:36
Tom Good
Hello Parnel: I see your points but, to me, a pseudo election has been running for the term of this government. To suggest a big act is coming in the political theatre may be right but it is not a winning tactic. Yes, the environment is very topical today and new enviro-taxes would really heat up the issue negatively.
Yes, the Quebec vote is hard to predict and usually it is more fertile ground for the Liberals than it is for the Conservatives. If the voter identifies with the leader like Mulroney, that is a positive but I do not believe Dion has the same support in his home province as Mulroney received.
[updated Sat May 10 14:40:50 EDT 2008]
10 May 14:40
hollinm
Tom: its amazing how parnel can twist and turn so that he can present the most positive image for his party.
He will not accept the fact that his leader has bombed out with the Canadian people and no amount of travelling across the country will change that. In fact the opposite is probably true. They will dislike him even more when "they get to know him".
[updated Sat May 10 16:41:18 EDT 2008]
10 May 16:41
parnel
You're entitled to your opinion but I also hear a lot of the same things about Harper. You are apparently isolated in the west where everything that is Liberal is automatically condemned such is the puppetry there.
Remember that Dion is not even trying at this point in time to improve his image. The guy, and his team, has a plan and it will develop and be promoted when the time is right.
My rage against Harper is justified, and will, in the fullness of time be recognized as valid. The minute this guy ever gets a majority government he will inflict enormous stress on our confederation and economy in order to appease the extreme right wing that paid to get him there.
[updated Sun May 11 08:45:21 EDT 2008]
11 May 08:45
hollinm
parnel....you can attack we who live in the West but remember it is the Central Canada media we are reading so we understand clearly the disdain for Harper and the Conservative government. We read it everyday.
Give me a break...Dion wants to look foolish? He wants the media laughing at him? He wants to be portrayed as a cariacture? Get real... a leopard cannot change his spots. What we see is what we will get with Dion.
Only in your own mind is your rage against Harper justified. I can go back over 13 years of Chretien/Martin governments and rage against many things that I did not agree with.
Harper will get a majority government the next time out because Canadians will not want a doofus living at 24 Sussex Drive, no matter how badly it needs repairs.
[updated Sun May 11 13:28:32 EDT 2008]
11 May 13:28
hollinm
Just one further point parnel...Harper has had a de facto majority for almost two years because your party does not believe they can win an election. What you see is what you get with the Conservatives. It is the Liberals who have a hidden agenda of high taxes and reckless spending priorities by there feckless leader.
[updated Sun May 11 16:09:16 EDT 2008]
11 May 16:09
parnel
If one could see the future life would be sweet. I continue to harp on the fact the Liberals will determine when they are ready for an election. They are not running right now because their sense of timing is that its not rip e for picking just yet. They have a very professional and battle ready team preparing the way for a platform that conforms to the party's and leader's vision. They are not interested in another minority government and will do waht is necesary to win that majority.
They have the whole center left and left side of the spectrum to work with whiile the Tories are limited to the 30-35% of true Tories they can count on.so, the work now for the Libeals is to keep Harper on the defensive by throwing out scandals or psuedo scandals and attacking his every move.
In the meantime they are working to consolidae their hold on the left which they left in disrepair for some time.
The Quebec situation is one that can be managed by the Liberals and they could even make sure the Tories don't get too many bloc seats while they work their way back into the mainstream of Quebec politics.
Ontario has become very fertile ground for the Libs thanks to the mighty midget Flaherty who has become a standing joke among many in the province and that profile will only grow. In some polls the libs are at close to 50% there.
So count them out at your own risk. This a party that has been very good for Canada and is now getting back to its successful formula.
Besides, Harper's open hatred of the liberals runs far too deep to be healthy for the Country.
[updated Sun May 11 09:02:24 EDT 2008]
11 May 09:02
MRM
Prediction - If Dion does not go in the Fall he will have a revolt on his hands that will result in either his resignation or defeat at a leadership convention.
[updated Sun May 11 10:51:27 EDT 2008]
11 May 10:51
parnel
You couldn't predict your way out of a sand box in that context because you have no clue about the Liberal party's internal workings. Dion will be in charge next election. NO matter what desperate people think and imply he is there until the next leadership review and that is not until after the next election win lose or draw. Party policy that has been intact since Laurier's time. And every Liberal leader has been PM except for one way back when. So pucker up and get ready for good government.
[updated Sun May 11 12:52:58 EDT 2008]
11 May 12:52
MRM
I think that you should pull your head out of that sandbox and give it a good shake because the Liberals have no hope of winning the next election. Days following their humiliating defeat, one that may even see an NDP official opposition for the first time, Dion will resign in disgrace, his 15 agonizing minutes over, never to be heard of in politics again.
[updated Mon May 12 07:57:29 EDT 2008]
12 May 07:57
MRM, are you for real? Are you a paid CON hack? Dion has it all over Harper in terms of vision (policies) and a team to deliver the goods. Harper wins on "leadership" as narrowly defined and polled by the RW media. If Canadians were asked the proper questions (fast forward to the next election), the answer is quite different.
Canadians value common sense, integrity, caring and sharing. Dion has these qualities in spades and Harper isn't even a blip on any of these scales.
[updated Sun May 18 00:37:58 EDT 2008]
18 May 00:37
MRM
I get paid as much as you do to be a Liberal hack. Oh yeah, given your comments you will have to excuse me if I keep forgetting that you are not a Liberal. If I am a "CON hack" for thinking that Harper has a better vision for Canada and is a better leader then I guess the majority of Candians are also "CON hacks" which is great news for the country.
[updated Sun May 18 04:41:56 EDT 2008]
18 May 04:41
Tom Good
Morning, Parnel: Although my sentiments lie in the centrist sector, I do not share your optimism for the Liberal fortunes at this time. I am also sure that if the Liberals thought the time was favourable to topple the government, we would not hear the mantra "the people do not want another election now". Let's face it, the Liberals have an opposition programme that a majority of the electorate does not agrees with either. The Harperites are not perfect and some of their programmes are mighty contentious, like Afghanistan, while others are long overdue, like their law and order agenda, the National Parole Board, Immigration, upgrading the military, Arctic sovereignty, lowering of overall taxes. Yes, there is a lingering unease about Harper and what he might do with a majority and, yes, there is his background with the National Citizens Coalition and the Reform party but we will have to trust that he understands that the government of Canada is NOT an arm of either of those groups. He cannot ignore the hopes and aspirations of the majority in a western democracy except to his own peril---then he would end up politically like Mulroney with two MPs in the following House.
I would not say Harper openly hates the Liberals but he certainly believes his agenda is better, and it is and especially so as the Liberals are supposedly keeping theirs "close to the chest". As I recall, Martin painted Harper in rather scary terms-----Harper is doing the political thing and we all should keep that in perspective. Some of the Harper supporters dwell rather heavily on history saying ALL Liberals, past and present, are dishonest as would be a Liberal majority government----the recent past is partially true but the present is not. Equally, it is dicey to say a Harper majority will institute the rightist programmes of the National Citizens Coalition or Reform-----in both cases we are dealing with history---it is past and it cannot be changed and we have to judge in the terms of today. We should understand history but we have to live in the "today" and strive for a better tomorrow----we ALL know that.
[updated Sun May 11 15:45:29 EDT 2008]
11 May 15:45
hollinm
I hope you are right Tom.
As you and I have discussed it is critical that the next government be a majority.
The foolishness that is going on is disgusting and the Liberals will never accept the fact that they lost the election until they are put out to pasture for 4 years. That will allow them sufficient time to get a new leader and change its policies so that those policies are reflective of what Canadians are interested in.
Its interesting that you say Harper is seen separate from the party. However, with the Liberals constantly saying that Harper controls everything and he makes all the deicisions how does this square.?
It could well be that the public sees Harper the best of the current lot and until there is something better on offer they will support him.
[updated Sat May 10 09:59:10 EDT 2008]
10 May 09:59
Tom Good
Morning Hollinm: I believe the electorate looks and sees Harper---they see the man and know he leads the Conservatives----the party and the man are not separate but it is Harper the voter sees first. It is leadership the voter sees with the tories and it is the party the voter sees with the grits.
[updated Sat May 10 14:27:58 EDT 2008]
10 May 14:27
hollinm
Tom: I must agree with you. That being said Harper is in a much better place than Dion. The odds of him winning the next election are in his favour.
[updated Sat May 10 16:43:05 EDT 2008]
10 May 16:43
parnel
Keep dreaming hollinm
[updated Sun May 11 08:46:04 EDT 2008]
11 May 08:46
hollinm
It's not a dream but a reality parnel. It is you that has the blinkers on wishing upon wishing that your leader and party had a chance of winning the next election.
[updated Sun May 11 16:10:50 EDT 2008]
11 May 16:10
parnel
Here's more comments from Nick that were in the Calgary Sun today...
"Pollster Nik Nanos said broad enthusiasm for all three men is waning.
Some 33% of people polled answered "none of them/undecided" when asked who was most trustworthy, 32% were undecided about who was most competent and 35% were either undecided or felt no leader had the best vision for the country overall.
"An increasing number of voters are parking," Nanos said. "They're not thrilled with any of the party leaders ... The fact that the tone in the House of Commons has been so negative, and fairly petty, automatically results in voters tuning out."
So please tell me how your vision is so overwhelming with comments like that from a very knowledgable observer. The fact remains that the guy in power has more opportunity to shine and this guy hasn't.
Parked votes are generally more on the left than on the right so I think you start playing with your worry beads now.
[updated Sun May 11 16:36:23 EDT 2008]
11 May 16:36
hollinm
In that interview Nik also called Harper the teflon PM.
As I told you the other day Harper's numbers have not changed but the numbers from all the other leaders fell, some of them dramatically.
What that tells me is that Harper's support is steady. The public is not happy with the other leaders and are parking their votes.
That could be good or bad for Harper. However, Harper is in a better position on trust, competence and vision than any of the other leaders.
At 14% only Dion's relatives are supporting him.
If the parked votes are on