The House Returns - Ethics, Accountability and the Big Picture (Nanos Sun Column)

You are absolutely right Nik. The politicians are playing gotcha politics at the expense of discussing the important issues of the day.

At this point the faux scandals are not catching on with the public but I agree there could be a cumulative affect on the government.

The Libs are so desperate to find an issue that they can beat the CPC on that they will say or do anything. Leblanc's comments about this being an Enron type scandal concerning the in and out scheme is typical. With their hysterical over the top rhetoric, Canadians will simply tune them out and say a pox in all their houses.

However, when an election comes next Fall there will only be two leaders that can be chosen. That is the incumbent Prime Minister and an Opposition leader who cannot control his own party nor has the support of the majority of his party. As well, on all the leadership polls conducted Dion comes nowhere near Harper on how Canadians perceive Dion's leadership abilities.

So yes, there may be a cumulative affect which may prevent the CPC from getting a majority but it will not allow the Libs even a minority government.

Canada desperately needs a majority government after two minorities. We cannot continue to run the country with a Separatist party controlling a block of votes, opposition parties controlling committees and the important issues facing the country ignored as all parties are in perpetual campaign mode.

[updated Mon Apr 28 13:17:52 EDT 2008]

Interesting take on things as always. The question I have is: how engaged are the electorate in these accountability issues? They certainly should be, but I hear more buzz about the economy and the US election at the moment.

I suspect that people are seeing these issues in their peripheral vision, that they are registering on the sub-conscious, and will become an issue once an election is called, but for the most part, the front of their mind is engaged in where the economy is going. This is particularly true in Ontario which meay be in a real recession as well as a psychological one.

[updated Mon Apr 28 13:23:59 EDT 2008]

It would be gratifying to find a political party that was motivated by the wishes of the electorate rather than the political needs of the party. In our recent political history, the party needs seem to get all parties into trouble. Elections are for the incumbents to lose.

With the US being our 80% trading partner, it is difficult for the Canadian economy to run full steam if our major trading partner does not wish to buy our goods. Our softwood lumber industry in British Columbia has been depressed for a number of years due to a drop in American demand and it seems to be the same in the auto industry. George Bush is saying there is no recession in the US and we are hearing the same message in Canada from our political leaders. I believe most of us can look at what is happening and make a valid assessment.

Actually, I do not see the NDP profiting greatly from the Conservative-Liberal divide. In the October 19, 2009 election, the electorate will still view the political choice as either Conservative or Liberal in the central part of Canada with Quebec and the West being different. The way Ontario goes, so goes the land. Scandals in the middle of an election will skew the results, as it did last time around, and a change in leadership for the Liberals will definitely change the fortunes for that party but, all things being equal, Harper will likely triumph with another minority.

[updated Mon Apr 28 14:55:41 EDT 2008]

This analysis Nik, is right on. The few years in Government for the conservatives has made an enormous difference in perception.
And that can be a big problem in the next election. Wish it were'nt so, but the reality is real.
Thanks for your important work Nik.

[updated Mon Apr 28 16:06:52 EDT 2008]

Further to your point Nick, this government has been nothing but open, honest, accountable. They have been playing the blaming game for over two years and nothing seems to indicate that will change. It is certainly the sign of a Party/Government that has not matured at through the governing process and that it has not been able to develop its resources into a credible team. But what else can you expect when the CPC is what can be called for sure a one man band?

[updated Mon Apr 28 16:53:15 EDT 2008]

The problem Nik is that " they ARE all the same". Both major political Parties have faced serious ethical issues and the publics' cynicism is well founded. Politicians rank among the lowest respected occupations when graded among the most respected occupations. The lowest include used car salesmen, religious leaders, politicians and journalists. Sad indeed.

[updated Mon Apr 28 19:56:44 EDT 2008]

This not a "psychological recession" for those on the bottom of the food chain. The fear is real and the comparison to the last mulroney recession is inevitable. Lets hope we can get some competent money managers in place, as the challenges of sustainability are huge. The tories talk balanced budget, but the results are less than average.

[updated Mon Apr 28 20:34:45 EDT 2008]

The Elections Canada issue will go away when the courts show that Elections Canada broke their own rules with regard to notification of a search of the Conservative office and that Liberals are more guilty when the light of inquiry is turned on.

It will also be shown that the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals, all played the 'in and out' game. The Conservatives did with their money legally raised through donations, the NDP did it with coerced union dues seized from workers and legally donated to them and the Liberals did it with public funds laundered to them through an Adscam type play. Who is in the wrong here?

[updated Mon Apr 28 22:57:41 EDT 2008]

No doubt that Adscam had an impact but I do not agree with the premise that the Tories won the last election solely as a result of it. There was a 13 year record to judge them on and a real desire for change on the part of the electorate. We saw some of this discontent manifest itself when Martin was restricted to a minority in the previous election. The opposition, with a great deal of assistance from the liberally dominated Federal bureaucracy and the so called MSM has done a very good job of creating scandals where there are none by over inflating the importance of events and by over reporting them. The opposition is using the tactic of misusing their authority on committees to attack the government. The Ethics Committee and the Mulroney Schreiber Affair is a perfect example of this but there are others. That said I think that the Tories have done a dismal job of getting their message out and at times have taken the wrong communications approach to issues. The best thing that the PM can do is get himself a new Communications Director and along with it a new communications strategy. I do agree that both the Bloc and NDP (in Ontario) could benefit from the current situation but I think that any gains the NDP make in Ontario will by extension help the Tories as it will siphon off support from the Grits. Conversely any gains made by the Bloc will further harm the Tories in Quebec.

[updated Tue Apr 29 08:00:05 EDT 2008]

The Big Picture is one that ties all the loose ends together. What Canadians face is a single right wing government devoted to the failed Bush administration and failed neocon economic policies vs. four centre-left parties who could do better with their eyes closed. On issues like war and peace, the environment, the economy and jobs, social justice, our rights and freedoms, foreign aid and on and on. "Little" things that get lost in the Tories' constant sattacks on Mr. Dion and any other detractors.

But Mr. Harper is a proven bully, and his rap sheet grows every day. So I take some comfort in the opposition biding their time, waiting to bring him down when he has gone to far.

For many, that day has past.

[updated Tue Apr 29 20:13:58 EDT 2008]

A slowdown in the economy is always an albatross around the neck of a ruling party. While our economy has not had a hit yet, there are obvious signs that we may be approaching an edge.
Nik states that polls show we are in a " psychological recession". That's a good name for it and I agree. The perception can have the same effect as reality. I wrote last year that I believe we are headed for a recession. It's not of our or our governments making but we can't escape global events.
Because over 80% of our trade is with the US the downturn there will affect Canada.
The worst is not reached yet in the US. Bush is still hanging on to the false economy of his administration. He sees the results now but he is not going to do anything about it. In fact the worse it gets the happier he will be to leave the mess to the incoming administration. If that happens to be the Democrats, so much the better. The disaster they will inherit will mean the Republicans will get back in power in 4 years.
The downturn may not be as severe in Canada but the effects here will most likely turn the populace against whoever is in power here. Nothing changes governments as much as a poor economy.
So the time of the election combined with the severity of economic downturn will decide who people vote for. Remember it only takes a relative few undecided voters to change government. Since most of them reside in Ontario and Quebec and those two provinces maybe most affected, that's the critical area.

If the election is called before a recession, trust and accountability will be major issues. The longer the government is in power the more opportunities arise for negative events to take place.
All those issues real or perceived will be used by the opposition to the fullest to undercut the trust and credibility of the government. Those issues now forgotten will be brought to light again and a brighter light shine on them. Even if there is not any bigger issue coming forth between now an election time the accumulated effect of all of them will make life difficult for the government getting re-elected. I can't see any hope for a majority.

[updated Thu May 01 09:32:20 EDT 2008]

Here's a tory report card:

A woman, married three times, walked into a bridal shop one day and told the sales clerk that she was looking for a wedding gown for her fourth wedding.

'Of course, madam,' replied the sales clerk, 'exactly what type and color are you looking for?'

The bride to be said: 'A long frilly white dress with a veil.' The sales clerk hesitated a bit, then said, 'Please don't take this the wrong way, but gowns of that nature are considered more appropriate for brides who are being married the first time - for those who are a bit more innocent, if you know what I mean. Perhaps ivory or sky blue would be nice?'

'Well,' replied the customer, a little peeved at the clerk's directness, 'I can assure you that a white gown would be quite appropriate. Believe it or not, despite all my marriages, I remain as innocent as a first-time bride.
You see, my first husband was so excited about our wedding, he died as we were checking into our hotel. My second husband and I got into such a terrible fight in the limo on our way to our honeymoon that we had that wedding annulled immediately and never spoke to each other again.'

'What about your third husband?' asked the sales clerk. 'That one was a Tory,' said the woman, 'and every night for four years, he just sat on the edge of the bed and told me how good it was going to be, but nothing ever happened...'

[updated Thu May 01 16:44:44 EDT 2008]

Here is a good peice written for the National pest by Ralph Goodale, this precisely what I have been saying about this unaccountable government who are economicly challenged.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=483762

One major comment of many:
"He has taken this nation to the brink of a deficit -- the first in more than a decade. And it's deliberate. It's his ideological obsession to stop the federal government from being an instrument for good in the lives of ordinary Canadians.

Among major bank economists, academic think-tanks, bond rating agencies, the Bank of Canada and the International Monetary Fund, the prognostications are all consistent. The Canadian economy is now in a major slowdown. It will likely last longer than first expected. And the Harper government may soon be in the red.

Canadians would find a return to deficits inexplicable. They sacrificed too much to achieve discipline in the nation's finances to see that success now squandered. At the same time, they won't like Mr. Harper's way of avoiding his self-inflicted deficit. He will slash federal programs and services and say the "deficit-devil" made him do it.

Even when the Harper government had a $13-billion Liberal surplus on its hands, he cut the Court Challenges program, which helped the less wealthy access their constitutional Charter rights; adult literacy services; the advocacy of women's equality; historic measures to bridge gaps between aboriginal and non-aboriginal Canadians; funding for child care spaces; a credible plan to fight climate change; student aid; and more."

No deficit huh???

[updated Thu May 01 20:15:45 EDT 2008]

Nick's opening line in this blog was from harper's accountability speech...here's another view of how his government works the other way. Idealogical terrorism is how I describe these actions.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080502.wdrug02/BNStory/National/home

Scientists accuse Tories of 'despicable' interference
Ideological opposition to a Vancouver safe-injection site caused muzzling and misrepresentation of findings, researchers say
ANDRÉ PICARD

From Friday's Globe and Mail

May 2, 2008 at 4:50 AM EDT

The federal government committed a "serious breach of international scientific standards" in its handling of Vancouver's safe injection site, according to a new study.

An article published in the International Journal of Drug Policy charges that the Conservative government interfered in the work of independent scientific bodies, attempted to muzzle scientists and deliberately misrepresented research findings because it is ideologically opposed to harm-reduction programs.
The article continues........

[updated Fri May 02 18:00:15 EDT 2008]

Nik, as the weeks go by, the Canadian electoral atmosphere is no less cloudy but I believe a slow change is taking effect. At the rate we are going, I would say time is on Harper's side and, each day, he is steadily attracting the centre right swing voter who is not necessarily Conservative. The core voter on either side remains the core and rather unmoveable. Why do I say this? I suggest the Liberals, by their House behaviour are turning off their peripheral voters and causing them to "rethink" FOR THEMSELVES. I believe there is a situation in the US electoral race that should give us cause for thought. The continuing negative behaviour in the Democratic camp can turn off the potential swing voter there and cause them to look to McCain and the Republicans------who would have thought that 6 months ago. Is there not a parallel behaviour in our House today?

Whether the Liberals like it or not, an election is going to be "forced" upon them on October 19, 2009. Try sitting that one out ! ! !

[updated Tue May 06 14:53:52 EDT 2008]

DANNY WILLIAMS IS A HYPOCRITE

The mean spirited, blustering PM of NL is once again talking out of both sides of his hat. He is boasting about a $544M surplus and calling for more help for ON’s struggling economy. Of course he does not mention the fact that the only reason he has that huge surplus to boast about is because he has been given oil revenues from offshore oil development and Equalization Payments from ON and AB. I say given oil revenues because offshore resources are strictly a federal jurisdiction but the feds have all but surrendered their rights in this case to NL and NS. This was done in part so that NL could become a ‘Have” province. But of course that is not enough for the Premier who wants to still get full Equalization payments as his oil revenues grow. The feds agreed to let him keep half of the EP but still not enough, he wants it all. This of course is where the hypocrite part comes in. He wants the feds to help ON but not if it means readjusting EP. He apparently only wants to help if someone else pays? He says all the right things like “NL stands ready to do its part in confederation because we love this country!” Wasn’t this the same guy who not long ago pulled down the flag at the Legislature and threatened to leave Confederation? Anyway he says he will do his part but still refuses to budge on giving up any of the money he now gets under Equalization? He has yet to explain his logic on this but I am sure it will be good.

I see some common ground for the Feds and ON on this issue if they can take a breath and get along long enough to work on it. After all, the Tories ran on fixing the fiscal imbalance between provinces and McGuinty is correct when says that it is “perverse” that ON will be a “have not” Prov while they continue to give out $20B to other provinces. So at least philosophically there is common ground here.

As for Danny, I think that he should tread carefully. Now is not the time to be boasting about a huge surplus that has been garnered through the generosity of others, particularly in ON.

[updated Wed May 07 09:02:10 EDT 2008]