The federal Tories and Liberals continue their neck-and-neck race in the latest Nanos tracking poll completed April 9th, 2008.
Of note, NDP support is down five points nationally since February. Support in Ontario for the Liberals is up and support in Ontario for the NDP is down. Regardless of the Dion leadership perception problems, the past few weeks have seen the Grits win the Ontario by-elections, former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae enter the House and the Lukiwski comments.
For more written analysis…select…read the full piece.
Video of analysis and stats
It’s important to remember, this poll was conducted at a time of media focus on the Lukiwski anti-gay comments made 17 years ago. It’s quite possible that some soft Ontario New Democrats have strategically parked with the Liberals to block the Tories.
Tory support is up in the West - no negative fallout from Lukiwski there. The increase in support may also be part of a post by-election halo effect in Saskatchewan and British Columbia.
Methodology
Polling between April 4th and April 9th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 827 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The Nanos Research Survey of 827 Canadians is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The subset of committed voters is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in February, 2008.
Canada (N=827, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36% (+5)
- Liberal Party 36% (+3)
- NDP 14% (-5)
- BQ 8% (-2)
- Green Party 6% (-2)
Ontario (N=251, MoE ± 6.3%, 19 times out of 20)
- Liberal Party 50% (+7)
- Conservative Party 32% (+1)
- NDP 13% (-6)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
When one combines the Lukiwski comments, the addition of former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae to the federal Liberal front bench, the focus on Afghanistan and the Ontario Flaherty-McGuinty flare up - do you think some NDP voters are strategically parking with the Grits to block the Harper Tories?
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
What the polls say and what the electors do in the next election, I believe, is ... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 11 Apr 04:06
Frankly, I was surprised by these numbers. Some of the polls were showing Harpe... more
Bernie (Ontario) 11 Apr 08:17
This confirms my beliefs that the politics played by Harper and his gang of inco... more
parnel (Ontario) 11 Apr 01:54
"Jesus would be overturning tables.." I would have categorized you as an atheis... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 11 Apr 18:01
Dion is failing his party as a leader. If he ever becomes PM he will fail the co... more
MRM (Manitoba) 13 Apr 08:53
The "joke" is the once mighty Liberal Party that has now been reduced to a laugh... more
MRM (Manitoba) 13 Apr 11:12
Comments
parnel
This confirms my beliefs that the politics played by Harper and his gang of incompentents are not resonating with Canadians. Many of them are withholding support for Dion due to his negative press.
I also believe that Flaherty's attacks on the Ontario government have backfired in the polls based on the Liberal party growth there and the gains do come from disaffected NDP voters as suggested by Nick. The fact conservative voter intentions are stagnant is telling.
The Conservative "halo" effect out west,particularly in BC, is a result of the close by election in BC which is not reflective of how people will vote in another election when major issues are on the table. The Sask. riding could go either way in the next election.
All in all a good poll for the Liberals and must be disappointing for Harper who is probably preparing his next series of lies in his attack ads.
The green party may also be losing "parked" votes back to the Liberals. .
[updated Fri Apr 11 01:54:34 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 01:54
125 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
What the polls say and what the electors do in the next election, I believe, is still up for grabs. At the moment it does not bode well for a majority. I wonder if all these months of election fever will contribute to elector fatigue and low turn out.
This poll is reflecting the moves of the "swing" voter who will be the kingmaker in the next election. Harper has to try to appeal to the Liberal "swinger" and at the moment, the poll says he has not been too successful. On the other hand, Layton has to hold his "swingers" in the NDP fold and the poll says he has not been too successful either.
In Quebec, neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals are trusted to rule. Duceppe will profit from the division and the Bloc will continue to represent that province. It will be interesting to see if goodies flow to Quebec as they did last year when it appeared an election was imminent---something will likely happen to try to "break" that stagnation of voter numbers.
The West is an interesting prediction with the Conservatives showing strength but that also may be a weakness if the Conservatives are perceived as primarily as a party of western strength. The west is, more often than not, out of step with the rest of the country. The way Ontario goes, so goes the rest of the country.
The "losers" in this poll are the NDP and the Greens and we see the beginnings of strategic voting come the election. Given no loose lips or bad stumbles on either side, the election will be October 19, 2009
[updated Fri Apr 11 04:06:12 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 04:06
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
broughad
It seems the battle lines are being drawn. Atlantic Canada and Ontario are firmly with the Liberals, while the Conservatives keep a stranglehold on the West, and Quebec is up for grabs. Support for the NDP is evaporating everywhere and it looks like many voters have decided to end their flirtation with the Greens.
Flaherty's interference in Ontario's budget has driven voters in that province firmly behind its Liberal government, thus benefitting federal Liberals. The Lukiwski affair has caused Conservative support in the West to retrench, mainly due to the shrill and morally superior reaction of the opposition, particularly the NDP.
If there were an election now, with their superior machine, the Conservatives would probably eke out another minority. If the Conservatives have learned anything from this, it's that it doesn't pay to bash the biggest province in the country.
[updated Fri Apr 11 07:56:34 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 07:56
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bernie
Frankly, I was surprised by these numbers. Some of the polls were showing Harper in the lead by 10%, even a point or two in Ontario The attacks on McGuinty obviously had an effect especially coming from Fraherty. He did such a bad job of handling Ontario's finances during the Harris regime. McGuinty may not have an endearing personality but he is fairly competent and is not too upsetting to Ontarians. So the attacks are unwarranted and they haven't forgotten Harris and Flaherty.
It's only during election time do un-affiliated voters get serious and then one important issue can make or break the close tie we have now.
Harper is still not being honest and transparent, his prime election promises. Trying to insert an immigration bill into the budget is a trick taken from the Republican playbook. Just look at how often the Republicans have unpassable bills rolled into larger one that do have greater chance of passing. IMO every bill should stand on its own and voted on separately.
Timing is everything. There are many "swingers" out there. And any given news item or story they can change their vote overnight.
Harper owes his election to Zaccardelli. This doesn't appear to resonate in the West but the people I know in Toronto are outraged by this. Police interference in the political process smacks of military interference in banana republics. It must not be tolerated. To release a report of charges re Goodale in the middle of a campaign and with not one shred or evidence. The first report had no names but Zaccardelli insisted and released it with Goodale's name. Martin's polls dropped 16 points overnight. That is what won the election for Harper. Personally I'm not blaming the Conservatives for this, the blame is entirely on Zaccardelli as far as I can determine. This has resonance on Ontario and may contribute to a rising Liberal vote.
Tom Good has an good take these polls and I can't say anything much different from what he has already said.
[updated Fri Apr 11 08:17:23 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 08:17
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
It sure looks like the Libs are benefiting from a decline in the NDP support in Ontario. Not surprising given the Libs are the only ones that can stop the Conservatives and short of an election the NDP supporters have no risk in a poll saying they support the Libs.
While national polls are great I believe the next election will be decided on a riding by riding basis.
Lib support continues to be strong in the GTA and the Martimes. However, outside these two areas their support is soft.
To demonstrate my point. In previous polls the Libs are showing support at 20% in Quebec. However, when you leave Montreal and move into the regions their support is 3rd or 4th. That accounts for 50 of the 75 seats in Quebec.
There is little support for the Dion Libs in the Prairies. There probably is support for the Libs in Vancouver but in the rest of B.C. it's primarily a battle between the Cons and the NDP.
So the Libs can take some consoliation that there vote is not collapsing under the Dion leadership but what it does is clearly demonstrate the Lib brand is still strong in the GTA and Maritimes.
However, in the next election there will only be two choices for PM of Canada. Canadians will need to make a decision as to who they want to lead this country in the future. Do they want a leader who has proven he can keep campaign promises, is decisive and makes decisions on behalf of the country.
Or, do they want an untested leader of the Official Opposition who has not demonstrated he has the requisite leadership abilities. A leader and party who has abstained or flip flopped on the important issues of the day and who people in his own party question his ability to lead.
Obviously if the Cons are to retain government let alone get a majority there will need to be movement in Quebec and Ontario. The former is possible but the latter is still a big question mark.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:18:18 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 10:18
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
These numbers point to another minority government which will likely be Conservative as long as Dion is leader of the Liberals. If Conservative they wil be in power for at least 2 to 3 years as the opposition would be unlikely to trigger another election before then.
Why do we see very wide differences in polling results from companies that consider themselves professionall polling organizations? Who do we believe? Ten and twelve percent differences are hard to explain.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:52:36 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 10:52
57 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
Why is it likely Harper would form a minority government after an election? He has failed the electorate and no matter how you slice and dice Dion he has not failed anyone.He has his problems getting the party focused but call an election and the Liberals will be very harmonious.
[updated Fri Apr 11 11:37:05 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 11:37
westerner (suspended)
You hope, at least!
[updated Fri Apr 11 12:46:16 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 12:46
hollinm
I suspect in an election you will have Liberal volunteers assuming that they will lose and will not show up. You may also have Liberal voters staying home so that Dion loses and the party can elect a new leader. Money is still an issue. You can blow through 18 million pretty quickly in a campaign.
I suspect Dion will be unintelligble or at least will demonstrate his lack of communications skills and that will turn Canadians off.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:00:13 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:00
parnel
I know a lot of Tory types who won't vote for Harper because he lied to them about income trusts and they are long time conservatives.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:18:55 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:18
hollinm
Anything is possible in the next election. How many non investors in income trusts feel that it was a good move? The NDP and the Bloc voters liked it.
Are you still in Dubai?
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:33:19 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:33
westerner (suspended)
I know a lot of Liberal types who won't vote for Dion because the Liberals lied during an election about introducing national daycare, reducing the GST to 0% and eliminating the NAFTA Agreement. You can't trust their election promises.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:53:12 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:53
I think Libveral volunteers and voters will come out in droves to vote against the most right wind PM in living memory or longer. And, isn't money off the table after the writ ir dropped. Spending caps and all that? So it's a pretty even playing field except, well, geez, CanWest, the Sun chain, CTV the Mop and Pail and a number of French language media outlets are, well, biased. You know, all business is good and all government is bad. America, Israel and war are good. Tax cuts for the rich. Deregulating financial markets, safety and other labour rights, environmental protection, consumer protection and all those other impediments to corporate freedom.
It's a race for the bottom, which would be unfettered capitalism. On this the MSM and the Tories see eye to eye.
But, despite their best efforts, Canadians don't buy it.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:24:29 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:24
hollinm
Other than those that want Dion to lose so they can get a more credible leader. Dion is tarnished now and there is no remedy for that once it clicks in. Its like the Mr. Dithers label Martin got.
You're right all money is equal in a campaign. However, with the war chest the Cons have they can prepare, organize and hire people before the writ is dropped so that they are fully ready. I don't see the Libs in that kind of financial shape.
As for the rest of your accusations time will tell whether in fact you are right. Somehow the sun will come up the day after election day and will set in the West. Four years is a short period of time. The voters will decide who they want after a Conservative majority government has had the opportunity to govern for 4 years.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:39:19 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:39
parnel
You are right, there is no remedy for a tarnished leader and Harper is one...he has lied and bribed. He's toast.
Dion is far from tarnished except for the attack ads you all genuflect in front of. Most people are not dumb enough to believe a party that lies and bribes.
[updated Fri Apr 11 17:12:20 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 17:12
hollinm
parnel you are living in the twilight zone. You have been out of the country too long.
Dion is being crucified in the media and on Parliament Hill. The media is full of it everyday. No leader can recover from this kind of barrage.
The attack ads were a long time ago. They informed the public and Dion confirmed his weakness through his subsequent actions. Otherwise the ads wouldn't have stuck.
[updated Fri Apr 11 18:23:25 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 18:23
westerner (suspended)
The Liberals lied about child care and the GST and NAFTA during an election. However, some dumb Liberals still voted for them . People are dumb enough to believe a party that lies, and bribes with floor crossings; that party is Liberal.
[updated Fri Apr 11 19:11:22 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 19:11
westerner (suspended)
Three cheers for right wing PMs. Lets hope the MSM keep up their support for the Conservatives. Maybe the Red Star and CBC Pravda will see the light as well.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:55:08 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:55
MRM
Dion is failing his party as a leader. If he ever becomes PM he will fail the country as well.
[updated Sun Apr 13 08:53:25 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 08:53
parnel
Harper has failed the country and we need fresh faces in government to ger rid of the cynicsm we now see from that bunch of incompetents who's ministers have to deliver policies they do not agree with..... witness the cultural minister's comments that were blabbered about by a senator. They have become a joke... a gang of [EDITED BY MODERATOR], [EDITED BY MODERATOR] and [EDITED BY MODERATOR] ministers.
[updated Sun Apr 13 11:01:45 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 11:01
MRM
The "joke" is the once mighty Liberal Party that has now been reduced to a laughing stock even amongst it most ardent supporter, the National Press Gallery.
[updated Sun Apr 13 11:12:04 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 11:12
parnel
More drivel from the tory playbook.
[updated Sun Apr 13 11:16:50 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 11:16
(moderator)
Hi Parnel - Nik here (the pollster) - In your postings, please tone down the personal invective - and let's stay focused on the dialogue. Thanks, NJN
[updated Sun Apr 13 16:30:49 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 16:30
I feel for Parnel. The pack he's against use words like "vile." Why are they excluded from reproach?
[updated Sun Apr 13 16:53:09 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 16:53
parnel
Nick, maybe your directive here might be to those who whine all the time about the truth being told about their party leader. Tell them to simply put me on ignore and I would be pleased to do the same.
Calling Harper a [EDITED BY MODERATOR] is not personal invective its a fact.
[updated Sun Apr 13 17:53:46 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 17:53
(moderator)
Parnel - Nik here (the pollster) - This is a public space and I believe I have a responsibility to make sure we don't slander anyone. You obviously have some strong views about the Prime Minister but I do not want Nik on the Numbers to become a vehicle for really negative and personal attacks....ok? Cheers, NJN
[updated Sun Apr 13 18:38:30 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 18:38
parnel
Once more time Nick...please review what has been said about Dion in particular here.
I will also remind you the next time since it appears that squeaky wheels get the grease so to speak.
I see most of these same posters or their peers all over the blogosphere doing the dirty on Dion all the time.
[updated Sun Apr 13 18:52:14 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 18:52
MRM
Tattle tale!
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:52:14 EDT 2008]
14 Apr 16:52
It is ,very, easy to explain the wide variance in the polls .
Strategic Council uses loaded questions to skew the results .
Nik does not do this hence his astonishing accuracy 0.1% in the last election .
Nik and funnnily enough Decima where Allan Gregg now hangs his hat are the most accurate
and always have been .
CTV is the house organ for the con-bots . .
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:04:34 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:04
parnel
Right on Attila
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:19:54 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:19
hollinm
As much as I appreciate Nik's numbers I suspect there are reasons for the difference in polling numbers and it isn't because reputable pollsters are deliberately stacking the questions etc. I am not that cynical. I would suggest it is all in the timing and what is in the news at that particular time. Hence Nik's caution on the Lukiwski remarks.
Canadians have a reputation for not paying attention to politics and so the news will affect their opinion at any particular point in time. Once the election is called they will become engaged.
Harper and the Cons have a record of meeting their campaign platform and promises. The Libs have a record of disorganization, abstention and failing to vote on the major issues of the day.
We will see who engaged Canadians choose in the next election.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:45:08 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:45
parnel
Hollinm,Keep on swimming against the tide........I like watching that
[updated Fri Apr 11 17:13:42 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 17:13
hollinm
A Segers poll sponsored by Le Presse in Montreal came out today. Nationally they found Harper's government at 36% and the Libs at 30%. So depending on which poll you want to believe there is lots for every one.
[updated Fri Apr 11 18:25:39 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 18:25
westerner (suspended)
A polling company using loaded questions!! You can't be serious. They are professional after all. Does Nik agree??
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:48:44 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:48
Let me give you an example. Start your questions with, who is a better leader, Mr. Harper and Dion? Given the (false) bias in the perceptions of Canadians thanks to repeated and vile attacks ads against Mr. Dion, the answer is the PM.
Next ask, who would you vote for?
If you have complete faith in "professional" pollsters, you need to look again. What about those hired by governments and corporations (which is most of them). Don't you think thse clients are looking for a particular answer?
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:59:09 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:59
westerner (suspended)
Your far too serious. I had tongue in cheek obviously.
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:12:04 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:12
k. You got me on this one.
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:23:54 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:23
westerner (suspended)
We all agree with polls that support our view of the world and we ridicule those which don't. We are all biased as hell. Maybe even you!
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:17:44 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:17
I am biased. Against organized religion, for sure. If there is a Christian, Muslim, Jewish or any other god, (s)he is doing one heck of a lousy job.
Against money as an instrument of power. Buy all the yachts you want but don't try to control me.
Against poverty, sickness and repression. These are easily identifiable conditions we could do much more to overcome.
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:29:11 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:29
westerner (suspended)
You know the Golden Rule: "He who has the gold rules". Always has been this way, since time immemorial!!
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:47:10 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:47
No. The Golden Rule is to "Do unto others as you have done unto yourself." Jesus would be overturning tables all over Wall and Bay Street, were he around today. The avarice is beyond description.
When I was a kid and screwed up, which was often, my Mom used to make me memorize Bible passages like the Beatitudes.
Things like, "Blessed are the poor (and "the meek"), for "they shall inherit the earch" (or "the kingdom of heaven"). The Bible is wrong.
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:57:33 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:57
westerner (suspended)
"Jesus would be overturning tables.." I would have categorized you as an atheist!! Rather confusing.
[updated Fri Apr 11 18:01:20 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 18:01
Well now, for once you have judged me correctly. Nothing confusing about it. Jesus was some kind of a prophet, I guess, and his teachings are wonderful. Only they're ignored by our so-called Christian leaders, especially the "most" religious guys like Bush, Blair and Harper.
[updated Sat Apr 12 14:45:21 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 14:45
westerner (suspended)
CBC is the house organ for the Lieberals.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:56:14 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:56
Not the CBC I watch. Chantal Hebert loathes Mr. Dion. Andrew Coyne. Don Martin. All the Tory, NDP and other political reps who get equal time. To which particular CBC show(s) do you refer?
[updated Fri Apr 11 15:02:13 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 15:02
westerner (suspended)
All those on CBC loaded with Red Star reporters and the CBC gang itself. By the way the Red Star acknowledges that it is anti Conservative and the CBC should do the same and lift any pretense.
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:14:43 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:14
MRM
It is precisely because they are good Liberals that they loathe Dion. Do not equate one with the other.
[updated Sun Apr 13 23:50:06 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 23:50
MRM
Thats it, shoot the messenger when you don't like the message. I suppose Angus Reid/Toronto Star and Crop/La Presse are also unethical, using loaded questions to skew results?
[updated Sun Apr 13 08:56:47 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 08:56
If Nanos is right with these results, and they held during an election, westerner, I doubt the Cons. win the election. - not with the Maritimes and particularly Ontario having 50%+ support for the Liberals - that's a lot of lost Cons. seats that wont be made up out West where the Liberals don't have that many seats to lose.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:13:12 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:13
westerner (suspended)
They won't "win" but will form a minority government. Dion is a loser and a liability for the Liberals. A new leader for the Liberals may turn their fortunes around.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:50:43 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:50
A Liberal minority government would be considered a "win" to Liberals, because it means they're the government, not the Cons. Stop trying to play semantics.
[updated Fri Apr 11 15:37:32 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 15:37
westerner (suspended)
A minority government is not a "win" in my books. No semantic problems here.
Sorry to hear you say a minority government would be a win for the Liberals after so many years of majority governing. Their standards must have dropped.
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:50:05 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 16:50
hollinm
Don't get too excited.
Dion is not calling an election because he can win.
Why would he subject himself and his party to the taunts and media coverage both he and the party are receiving? It does not make sense. If Dion thought he could win we would have had an election a year ago.
To think the Libs would get 50% of the Ontario vote if an election were held today is ridiculous. Their support is primarily concentrated in the GTA and Northern Ontario. They will be competing with the Cons, NDP and the Greens. Lots of opportunity for split votes. The Libs potentially could lose seats in Quebec with the Cons picking up 30 or 40.
Lets agree that no party has a monopoly on the electorate at this point but I like the Cons chances more than the Libs.
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:59:59 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 14:59
Well, I guess you dispute the best pollster out there hollinm.
I know Con supporters aren't always engaged in realism.. and this appears to be another case of that. People dont like Stephen Harper here, period. Flaherty's criticisms of Ontario certainly didn't help matters for them.
[updated Fri Apr 11 15:38:51 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 15:38
parnel
You mean Flaherrty...the mousey character who plays at being a finance minister. We know how thin Tory ranks are but he is at the bottom
[updated Fri Apr 11 17:18:11 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 17:18
hollinm
I dispute your assertion that the Libs will win 50% support in Ontario no matter what Nik says.
You chose to ignore all my rationale for why the Libs won't win even a minority. Could it be you have no counter to facts?
[updated Fri Apr 11 18:20:30 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 18:20
parnel
Keep on dreaming Hollinm...your next one will be a mightmare
[updated Fri Apr 11 17:16:52 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 17:16
hollinm
I will surely have a nightmare if Dion becomes prime minister of Canada.
[updated Fri Apr 11 18:27:11 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 18:27
parnel
I'd rather you have a nightmare than the whole Countey if we had to put with Harper for several more years. Thanks for offering to sacrifice a little of yourself for the good of the Country.
[updated Sat Apr 12 12:38:43 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 12:38
hollinm
I think it will be you parnel who will be having nightmares.
Can you imagine a government who works for the country as a whole and isn't trying to concoct schemes to steal taxpayers money?.
Can you imagine a government who actually keeps the majority of its election promises?
Can you imagine a government led by a decisive, intelligent, articulate leader who does not suffer fools gladly?
That's what you will have when Dion implodes and Harper is elected with a majority government. The Gods are on our side parnel.
[updated Sat Apr 12 21:32:45 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 21:32
parnel
I can imagine all those things with a Liberal government and a deficit ridden constitutionally divided Country if Harper stays in power
[updated Sat Apr 12 22:09:54 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 22:09
vandaphil
Westerner: The problem with poles and perhaps the reason for differing numbers is in how they ask the questions. We often don't know what questions they ask or how they have framed their questions so it is difficult to know how accurate the results are.
I think the current situation would indicate another Conservative minority government, but I would be inclined to think that if an election campaign were held at the present time, Harper and the Conservatives could very well pull off a majority. I think Quebec is very close to being a lock for the Conservatives. I believe they can win enough seats in Ontario to win a majority even though a recent poll indicated 50% support for the Liberals. I think the Ontario Liberal support is soft in a number of areas and can be reversed with a good Conservative campaign.
[updated Sun Apr 27 23:10:16 EDT 2008]
27 Apr 23:10
westerner (suspended)
I generally agree.
It is quite disturbing to think professional pollsters would skew questions in a way that would influence how people answered them. However, the results vary so widely, and seem to follow the political bent of the surveying organization, that something untoward must be going on!
[updated Mon Apr 28 10:49:40 EDT 2008]
28 Apr 10:49
Suggestion. Let's talk about the next election. When. Why. And who will win!
[updated Sun Apr 13 17:31:05 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 17:31
59 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
I think another poll this coming week would do further damage to the secrecy prone Tories. The Afghan torture story is going to get sme play and will mostcertainly make the Tories look like liars once again on their "accountability" promises and the fact it does appear that the government has possibly covered up another scandal.
There are also rumours that the so called Finance minister may back off his changes to the Income trust fiasco. it will be too little too late for that major mistake and lie to get corrected.
[updated Sun Apr 13 22:55:42 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 22:55
82 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
With the recently resurfaced In and Out scandal dogging the Conservatives and new charges against Liberals from activities around Adscam, one would think that both major parties would be hurting somewhat. Mind you both of these hit the headlines after the polling period so perhaps we'll see the fallout of these next iteration. It is also highly possible that the electorate is still in a state of disconnect. I watch and wonder.
[updated Wed Apr 23 11:48:40 EDT 2008]
23 Apr 11:48
75 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
Here's some more good news that seems to follow Nick's poll of two weeks ago.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/418966
Gloomy outlook hurting Tories: Poll
Apr 27, 2008 03:33 PM
THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA–A new poll suggests economic fears and a lack of optimism are problems for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives.
Fifty-six per cent of respondents to The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey said they were worried about a recession, and 55 per cent said they didn't feel Harper offered much optimism or inspiration.
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[updated Sun Apr 27 17:58:08 EDT 2008]
27 Apr 17:58
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