The federal Tories and Liberals continue their neck-and-neck race in the latest Nanos tracking poll completed April 9th, 2008.
Of note, NDP support is down five points nationally since February. Support in Ontario for the Liberals is up and support in Ontario for the NDP is down. Regardless of the Dion leadership perception problems, the past few weeks have seen the Grits win the Ontario by-elections, former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae enter the House and the Lukiwski comments.
For more written analysis…select…read the full piece.
Video of analysis and stats
It’s important to remember, this poll was conducted at a time of media focus on the Lukiwski anti-gay comments made 17 years ago. It’s quite possible that some soft Ontario New Democrats have strategically parked with the Liberals to block the Tories.
Tory support is up in the West - no negative fallout from Lukiwski there. The increase in support may also be part of a post by-election halo effect in Saskatchewan and British Columbia.
Methodology
Polling between April 4th and April 9th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 827 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The Nanos Research Survey of 827 Canadians is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The subset of committed voters is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in February, 2008.
Canada (N=827, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36% (+5)
- Liberal Party 36% (+3)
- NDP 14% (-5)
- BQ 8% (-2)
- Green Party 6% (-2)
Ontario (N=251, MoE ± 6.3%, 19 times out of 20)
- Liberal Party 50% (+7)
- Conservative Party 32% (+1)
- NDP 13% (-6)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
When one combines the Lukiwski comments, the addition of former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae to the federal Liberal front bench, the focus on Afghanistan and the Ontario Flaherty-McGuinty flare up - do you think some NDP voters are strategically parking with the Grits to block the Harper Tories?
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
What the polls say and what the electors do in the next election, I believe, is ... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 11 Apr 04:06
Frankly, I was surprised by these numbers. Some of the polls were showing Harpe... more
Bernie (Ontario) 11 Apr 08:17
This confirms my beliefs that the politics played by Harper and his gang of inco... more
parnel (Ontario) 11 Apr 01:54
"Jesus would be overturning tables.." I would have categorized you as an atheis... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 11 Apr 18:01
Dion is failing his party as a leader. If he ever becomes PM he will fail the co... more
MRM (Manitoba) 13 Apr 08:53
The "joke" is the once mighty Liberal Party that has now been reduced to a laugh... more
MRM (Manitoba) 13 Apr 11:12
Comments
parnel
This confirms my beliefs that the politics played by Harper and his gang of incompentents are not resonating with Canadians. Many of them are withholding support for Dion due to his negative press.
I also believe that Flaherty's attacks on the Ontario government have backfired in the polls based on the Liberal party growth there and the gains do come from disaffected NDP voters as suggested by Nick. The fact conservative voter intentions are stagnant is telling.
The Conservative "halo" effect out west,particularly in BC, is a result of the close by election in BC which is not reflective of how people will vote in another election when major issues are on the table. The Sask. riding could go either way in the next election.
All in all a good poll for the Liberals and must be disappointing for Harper who is probably preparing his next series of lies in his attack ads.
The green party may also be losing "parked" votes back to the Liberals. .
[updated Fri Apr 11 01:54:34 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 01:54
125 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
What the polls say and what the electors do in the next election, I believe, is still up for grabs. At the moment it does not bode well for a majority. I wonder if all these months of election fever will contribute to elector fatigue and low turn out.
This poll is reflecting the moves of the "swing" voter who will be the kingmaker in the next election. Harper has to try to appeal to the Liberal "swinger" and at the moment, the poll says he has not been too successful. On the other hand, Layton has to hold his "swingers" in the NDP fold and the poll says he has not been too successful either.
In Quebec, neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals are trusted to rule. Duceppe will profit from the division and the Bloc will continue to represent that province. It will be interesting to see if goodies flow to Quebec as they did last year when it appeared an election was imminent---something will likely happen to try to "break" that stagnation of voter numbers.
The West is an interesting prediction with the Conservatives showing strength but that also may be a weakness if the Conservatives are perceived as primarily as a party of western strength. The west is, more often than not, out of step with the rest of the country. The way Ontario goes, so goes the rest of the country.
The "losers" in this poll are the NDP and the Greens and we see the beginnings of strategic voting come the election. Given no loose lips or bad stumbles on either side, the election will be October 19, 2009
[updated Fri Apr 11 04:06:12 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 04:06
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
SOR
I find it interesting that since the last federal election no pollster has acurately predicted the outcomes of every recent by-election. In fact every poll has been wildly inaccurate. For example Quadra was not supposed to be close, Sask. was supposed to be close but a Lib. victory, Libs were supposed to win in Montreal and CPC took one Quebec seat and came pretty close in the other.
Either something is causing a siesmic shift or pollsters have lost their ability to ask the right questions. I can see that predictions would be off on one or even two of the by-elections but not everyone except the two Toronto ones.
Finally, I am wondering why you are giving voters two choices and how you factor this into the results. Last ime I checked we hadn't adopted the STV system of voting. Am I wrong in assuming that, if you have four party's vying for the left of center votes that this will skew the results. Cheers.
[updated Fri Apr 11 06:02:55 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 06:02
(moderator)
Hi SOR - Nik here (the pollster) - I'm not aware of any polls that were done by research organizations for any of the recent round of by-elections. I thought most of the speculation about who would win or lose was from the pundits. Could you flip me the links with the polls you are talking about. Also - our organization did not do any polls in any of the by-elections. Cheers, NJN
[updated Fri Apr 11 07:22:43 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 07:22
SOR
Greetings Nik. I know your company did not do any polls for the by-elections. My comment was more generic in nature. As for polls done for the by-elections my understanding is that they were done locally. I don't have the links but I know there was one done in Sask. just prior to the day and it showed a close race and one of the Vancouver papers conducted a poll prior to the Quadra vote that didn't give the CPC a chance. I believe there were a few polls done prior to the three Quebec by-elections and they were all wrong.
As an individual with a math/science/statistics background I am more interested in knowing why you use the STV method in your polling and why only those not committed get to have two choices. How do you normalize for those results. I'm just curious as I like to be able to disect the details. Please don't take anything as a criticism of you firm or methodology. It is just my curiosity. Cheers.
[updated Fri Apr 11 12:00:25 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 12:00
westerner (suspended)
I wonder if all polls give the same sample size weighting to Ontario, Quebec, and the West. Slightly different weightings would deliver very different results. The differences between polling companies are hard to explain.
[updated Fri Apr 11 13:06:33 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 13:06
SOR
Westerner- I believe each poll has its' own parameters and the more that a pollster can sample the demographic the more accurate it is. It is very hard to really know from these Canada wide polls exactly how accurate they are. An example are the Quebec numbers. Province wide it looks as though the Liberals are commpetative with the CPC but, in fact, in the Montreal area their support is an inch wide and a mile deep whereas in the rest of the province it is a mile wide and a centimeter deep.
Similarily in Ontario the Libs are very popular in the cities but in the rural areas, not so much.
The only way to accurately determine the numbers is to do the kind of polling that CROP does in Quebec. The reason that I am a little sceptical of these numbers is that the CPC obviously want an election and the Libs don't. This leads me to believe that they have internal numbers that are very different than these more general polls. Cheers.
[updated Fri Apr 11 13:33:07 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 13:33
hollinm
Nik's poll including 30% from Ontario of the total poll. What percentage was taken in each of the GTA, Southern, Northern and Eastern Ontario.
Given the heavy population in Toronto was a large portion of the 30% in the GTA. Have you got that information Nik?
[updated Fri Apr 11 23:44:33 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 23:44
SOR
Hollinm- I completely concur, especially as it pertains to the west. They poll the same number of respondents in all of the 4 western provinces as they do for Ontario. To expect accuracy is becoming less and less possible. Remember this was a very small sample size and Nic was giving the undecideds two choices as oposed to one choice for the committed voters. All of those factors have to be taken into account.
What I believe is driving this particular poll though is the 'halo' effect from Bob Rae's election. Remember that the polls went way up when Dion was first elected as well. I fully expect the CPC are going to remind us of some of Rae's indiscete comments in the next little while and there won't be an election until 2009. Cheers.
[updated Sat Apr 12 10:42:24 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 10:42
hollinm
Noted. I have no idea of how the polling busness works but you seem to have some knowledge in that respect.
However, it does amaze me that pollsters can be polling over the same period and come up with some considerably different results.
If they truly were getting public opinon wouldn't the results be virtually same. It is not the ones that are close but it is the ones that say 36 versus 29 while others are saying 32-30..
Are people that fickle in this country that they change their vote depending on the day's news?
You would think that voters support a particular party because of what its policies are and for the government how it is managing the country. Reacting to the daily news events and changing your vote based on those news reports shows that voters can be fickle.
[updated Sat Apr 12 11:02:35 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 11:02
SOR
hollinm- The sample size make a huge difference in the outcome. The smaller the sample the greater the chance for discrepancy. For the longest time it was accepted that polling by phone was the best way to guarantee randomness but with so many people, especially younger ones, not having a land line pollsters are having greater difficulty in standardizing their data.
Nic polled 800 individuals, 30% from Ontario. Of those 30% (240 people) probably at least half would have come from Toronto and half from the reat of the province. See how easy it would be to get inaccurate results. If 80% of the Toronto sample (100 people) picked Liberals as their first or second choice and 30% of the rest of the province pick Liberals that gives them 130 votes out of 240. The NDP would pick up another 20 votes and the CPC would get the rest. Now this would only translate into seats if Toronto had half of the seats for Ontario which it doesn't.
Does that make things as claer as mud. Cheers.
[updated Sat Apr 12 12:26:29 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 12:26
hollinm
Thanks.
However one blogger, because of Nik's poll, on this thread suggested that the Libs could potentially get 50% of the Ontario vote in the next election. That is ridiculous but he actually said this as support for the argument that the Conservatives are in trouble.
Regardless of the polls being taken incessantly I do not believe the public are engaged. If they were unhappy with the current government there would be letters to the editor everyday complaining about the Harper Conservatives. That is not happening because I watch closely the Letters to get some of the public mood.
The other thing is that none of the perceived scandals have caught the public's attention. We political junkies love it and the Ottawa bubble loves it because it gives them something to write about but the regular folk are busy living their lives.
When an election is called they will become engaged.
[updated Sat Apr 12 21:28:07 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 21:28
hollinm
I note Nik's comments and he would know. I agree it was the punditry speculating so much it gets confusing after awhile as to who said what.
Having said that and with due respect to Nik I do not believe the race is as close as the pollsters are predicting. When the election is called the Conservatives will roll out their big blue election machine which has been in place for a year at least. They have the money to prepare, research etc. so they are ready on day one.
On the other hand the Libs are strapped for cash and so their ability to prepare in advance for a possible election is limited.
Regardless of the rhetoric about policies the campaign will always come back to leadership. Canadians will be asked incessantly in more ways than one who will make the best leader going forward. The Cons have a record with a leader that is decisive, fearless, is articulate and makes decisions that he believes are in the best interest of the country.
The other will be a weak leader who has trouble uniting his own party, is bombastic but ineffectual in proposing any new policies, has flop flopped on a number of serious issues and finally abstains or sit on his hands when it comes to showing opposition to the government. The other issue will be the Cons telling the public that Dion is only interested in power for the sake of power and so if he has to shed his principles he is prepared to do that.
The campaign will show who the true leader is and Dion will fall short in that assessment.
SOR the other point you made which I consider to be very valid is vote splitting. With 4 parties including the Bloc all fishing for the same votes, vote splitting will be a mega issue in the next election.
[updated Fri Apr 11 23:41:22 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 23:41
hollinm
Once again I have no real argument with your points other than in Quebec.
The last Crop poll in Quebec suggested the Libs had 20% but when you leave Montreal the support for the Libs falls dramatically. In some of the regions i.e. Quebec the Cons are at 41%. The Libs are in 3rd or 4th in some of the other areas. So I think it will be a fight between the Cons and the Bloc outside of the island of Montreal. However, there have been rumours that support in Montreal for the Libs is softening as well.
Regardless of what polls say today people can "park" their vote with whichever party they want without risk. It is evident the NDP is doing that in this poll. However, when it comes to the election it will be on leadership.
There will be a clear choice. A leader with a record of leadership or a quesionable leader who can not unite his own party to follow him and adopted a strategy of self interest by asbtaining or flip flopping on major policy issues.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:42:33 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 10:42
parnel
Hollinm...your continued ignorance of the strength the liberals exhibit masks a warning that Harper is not delivering the goods. He is simply not trusted becasue he should not be and the voters usually get it right.
[updated Fri Apr 11 11:33:31 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 11:33
hollinm
Parnel....you refuse to accept the reality of the situation. Do you think Dion is avoiding an election because he thinks he can win?
Why would Dion allow himself and the party to be humiliated in this way. He is no longer being laughed at he is being pitied.
I don't know whether you caught the At Issue panel on CBC National last nite from Dubai. However, they all agreed Dion is in desperate straights and in fact Chantal Hebert said the problems have now morphed into the National Council and it is beginning to worry them a lot.
You continue to make unsubstantiated allegations such as " Harper is not delivering the goods". What does this mean?
[updated Fri Apr 11 13:36:56 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 13:36
Tom Good
Hello Hollinm: This new login procedure gets me writing everything twice##^%)*&+++.
You may be correct about the Quebec predictions and I am a little far away for the day to day news.Yes, Liberal strength is usually in the urban centres and the Bloc in rural areas where the Conservatives tend to draw their strength-----The Bloc and the Conservatives may well have to battle it out in the rural ridings. I understand Liberal leadership is in question throughout Quebec , if not elsewhere.
At this date, with the exception of the West, the polls seem to say that the Conservative leadership is strong while the Conservative programme does not enjoy the same support. It is almost the opposite for the Liberals where the Liberal brand is strong but the leadership does not enjoy the same confidence. I think the "swing" voters recognize this dichotomy of strengths within the parties and are moving strategically and, with this poll, toward the centre.
In the West, Alberta provincial politics have been Conservative--Social Credit for 70 years or more and this translates into strong Conservative support federally.
You can fill me in on the voting history of Saskatchewan that I believe has been rather similar to BC where the centre has all but disappeared. How has this translated federally for Saskatchewan? I know nothing about the voting history of Manitoba.
In BC, our provincial governments have been either mildly right or left for 50+ years with the former prevailing-----federally this gives an unpredictable mix and usually a strong NDP representation. We are often "ag'inst the feds". Anyone who tries to predict the federal vote in BC has to have a mighty good crystal ball ! ! ! Our past actions suggest a strong tendency with the federal vote to protest that distant and indifferent place called Ottawa. The big unknown next election may well be will the BC voter protest or will they embrace what they see as primarily a strong western based party NOT representative of Ontario. It will take a few more polls in BC but if the feds throw goodies toward La Belle Province prior to the election and to the exclusion of all other provinces, then BC may continue to protest. It is a very delicate romance with the Conservatives at the moment ! ! !
Too bad we do not have proportional representation federally for MPs and for the Senate-----government may be more predictable and infinitely fairer for the West. The current system is grossly unjust and grossly out of date for a modern democracy.
[updated Fri Apr 11 23:23:33 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 23:23
hollinm
Hi Tom:
Sask. has 14 seats and in the past has had a mix of NDP, Lib and Con support but in the last couple of elections the Province has gone Con with exception of Goodale's seat in Regina and the seat up North which has now returned to Conservative hands. We recently elected a Conservative Provincial government after 14 years of NDP rule.
Harper has done a fair amount for B.C. and Gordon Campbell's government is Conservative in its approach to politics and appears to get along with Harper. Harper has done a fair amount for B.C. i.e the Pacific Gateway, funds for the Pine Beetle, infrastructure and I can't recall the other announcements made. Quadra results may have shown that the Cons are getting more support than every one expected.
Hopefully B.C. will look favourably on the Cons but I have no idea what Vancouver will do.
If we believe the general polls it looks like a crap shoot who will win. However, I believe the support for the Cons is higher than what is being shown. I maybe all wet but I guess we will have to wait for Dion to see the light.
One of the reasons for my optimism is the fund raising results for the Cons which far outpaces the other parties particularly the Libs. The poor fund raising of the Libs shows members of the party are not happy and are not prepared to support it financially.
[updated Sat Apr 12 00:09:51 EDT 2008]
12 Apr 00:09
broughad
It seems the battle lines are being drawn. Atlantic Canada and Ontario are firmly with the Liberals, while the Conservatives keep a stranglehold on the West, and Quebec is up for grabs. Support for the NDP is evaporating everywhere and it looks like many voters have decided to end their flirtation with the Greens.
Flaherty's interference in Ontario's budget has driven voters in that province firmly behind its Liberal government, thus benefitting federal Liberals. The Lukiwski affair has caused Conservative support in the West to retrench, mainly due to the shrill and morally superior reaction of the opposition, particularly the NDP.
If there were an election now, with their superior machine, the Conservatives would probably eke out another minority. If the Conservatives have learned anything from this, it's that it doesn't pay to bash the biggest province in the country.
[updated Fri Apr 11 07:56:34 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 07:56
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Bernie
Frankly, I was surprised by these numbers. Some of the polls were showing Harper in the lead by 10%, even a point or two in Ontario The attacks on McGuinty obviously had an effect especially coming from Fraherty. He did such a bad job of handling Ontario's finances during the Harris regime. McGuinty may not have an endearing personality but he is fairly competent and is not too upsetting to Ontarians. So the attacks are unwarranted and they haven't forgotten Harris and Flaherty.
It's only during election time do un-affiliated voters get serious and then one important issue can make or break the close tie we have now.
Harper is still not being honest and transparent, his prime election promises. Trying to insert an immigration bill into the budget is a trick taken from the Republican playbook. Just look at how often the Republicans have unpassable bills rolled into larger one that do have greater chance of passing. IMO every bill should stand on its own and voted on separately.
Timing is everything. There are many "swingers" out there. And any given news item or story they can change their vote overnight.
Harper owes his election to Zaccardelli. This doesn't appear to resonate in the West but the people I know in Toronto are outraged by this. Police interference in the political process smacks of military interference in banana republics. It must not be tolerated. To release a report of charges re Goodale in the middle of a campaign and with not one shred or evidence. The first report had no names but Zaccardelli insisted and released it with Goodale's name. Martin's polls dropped 16 points overnight. That is what won the election for Harper. Personally I'm not blaming the Conservatives for this, the blame is entirely on Zaccardelli as far as I can determine. This has resonance on Ontario and may contribute to a rising Liberal vote.
Tom Good has an good take these polls and I can't say anything much different from what he has already said.
[updated Fri Apr 11 08:17:23 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 08:17
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
It sure looks like the Libs are benefiting from a decline in the NDP support in Ontario. Not surprising given the Libs are the only ones that can stop the Conservatives and short of an election the NDP supporters have no risk in a poll saying they support the Libs.
While national polls are great I believe the next election will be decided on a riding by riding basis.
Lib support continues to be strong in the GTA and the Martimes. However, outside these two areas their support is soft.
To demonstrate my point. In previous polls the Libs are showing support at 20% in Quebec. However, when you leave Montreal and move into the regions their support is 3rd or 4th. That accounts for 50 of the 75 seats in Quebec.
There is little support for the Dion Libs in the Prairies. There probably is support for the Libs in Vancouver but in the rest of B.C. it's primarily a battle between the Cons and the NDP.
So the Libs can take some consoliation that there vote is not collapsing under the Dion leadership but what it does is clearly demonstrate the Lib brand is still strong in the GTA and Maritimes.
However, in the next election there will only be two choices for PM of Canada. Canadians will need to make a decision as to who they want to lead this country in the future. Do they want a leader who has proven he can keep campaign promises, is decisive and makes decisions on behalf of the country.
Or, do they want an untested leader of the Official Opposition who has not demonstrated he has the requisite leadership abilities. A leader and party who has abstained or flip flopped on the important issues of the day and who people in his own party question his ability to lead.
Obviously if the Cons are to retain government let alone get a majority there will need to be movement in Quebec and Ontario. The former is possible but the latter is still a big question mark.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:18:18 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 10:18
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westerner (suspended)
These numbers point to another minority government which will likely be Conservative as long as Dion is leader of the Liberals. If Conservative they wil be in power for at least 2 to 3 years as the opposition would be unlikely to trigger another election before then.
Why do we see very wide differences in polling results from companies that consider themselves professionall polling organizations? Who do we believe? Ten and twelve percent differences are hard to explain.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:52:36 EDT 2008]
11 Apr 10:52
57 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Suggestion. Let's talk about the next election. When. Why. And who will win!
[updated Sun Apr 13 17:31:05 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 17:31
59 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
I think another poll this coming week would do further damage to the secrecy prone Tories. The Afghan torture story is going to get sme play and will mostcertainly make the Tories look like liars once again on their "accountability" promises and the fact it does appear that the government has possibly covered up another scandal.
There are also rumours that the so called Finance minister may back off his changes to the Income trust fiasco. it will be too little too late for that major mistake and lie to get corrected.
[updated Sun Apr 13 22:55:42 EDT 2008]
13 Apr 22:55
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Non-aligned in Toronto
With the recently resurfaced In and Out scandal dogging the Conservatives and new charges against Liberals from activities around Adscam, one would think that both major parties would be hurting somewhat. Mind you both of these hit the headlines after the polling period so perhaps we'll see the fallout of these next iteration. It is also highly possible that the electorate is still in a state of disconnect. I watch and wonder.
[updated Wed Apr 23 11:48:40 EDT 2008]
23 Apr 11:48
75 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
Here's some more good news that seems to follow Nick's poll of two weeks ago.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/418966
Gloomy outlook hurting Tories: Poll
Apr 27, 2008 03:33 PM
THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA–A new poll suggests economic fears and a lack of optimism are problems for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives.
Fifty-six per cent of respondents to The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey said they were worried about a recession, and 55 per cent said they didn't feel Harper offered much optimism or inspiration.
continues.......................
[updated Sun Apr 27 17:58:08 EDT 2008]
27 Apr 17:58
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