The federal Tories and Liberals continue their neck-and-neck race in the latest Nanos tracking poll completed April 9th, 2008.
Of note, NDP support is down five points nationally since February. Support in Ontario for the Liberals is up and support in Ontario for the NDP is down. Regardless of the Dion leadership perception problems, the past few weeks have seen the Grits win the Ontario by-elections, former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae enter the House and the Lukiwski comments.
For more written analysis…select…read the full piece.
Video of analysis and stats
It’s important to remember, this poll was conducted at a time of media focus on the Lukiwski anti-gay comments made 17 years ago. It’s quite possible that some soft Ontario New Democrats have strategically parked with the Liberals to block the Tories.
Tory support is up in the West - no negative fallout from Lukiwski there. The increase in support may also be part of a post by-election halo effect in Saskatchewan and British Columbia.
Methodology
Polling between April 4th and April 9th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 827 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The Nanos Research Survey of 827 Canadians is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The subset of committed voters is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in February, 2008.
Canada (N=827, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 36% (+5)
- Liberal Party 36% (+3)
- NDP 14% (-5)
- BQ 8% (-2)
- Green Party 6% (-2)
Ontario (N=251, MoE ± 6.3%, 19 times out of 20)
- Liberal Party 50% (+7)
- Conservative Party 32% (+1)
- NDP 13% (-6)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
When one combines the Lukiwski comments, the addition of former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae to the federal Liberal front bench, the focus on Afghanistan and the Ontario Flaherty-McGuinty flare up - do you think some NDP voters are strategically parking with the Grits to block the Harper Tories?
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Most Read Comments
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What the polls say and what the electors do in the next election, I believe, is ... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 11 Apr 04:06
Frankly, I was surprised by these numbers. Some of the polls were showing Harpe... more
Bernie (Ontario) 11 Apr 08:17
This confirms my beliefs that the politics played by Harper and his gang of inco... more
parnel (Ontario) 11 Apr 01:54
"Jesus would be overturning tables.." I would have categorized you as an atheis... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 11 Apr 18:01
Dion is failing his party as a leader. If he ever becomes PM he will fail the co... more
MRM (Manitoba) 13 Apr 08:53
The "joke" is the once mighty Liberal Party that has now been reduced to a laugh... more
MRM (Manitoba) 13 Apr 11:12
Comments
parnel
This confirms my beliefs that the politics played by Harper and his gang of incompentents are not resonating with Canadians. Many of them are withholding support for Dion due to his negative press.
I also believe that Flaherty's attacks on the Ontario government have backfired in the polls based on the Liberal party growth there and the gains do come from disaffected NDP voters as suggested by Nick. The fact conservative voter intentions are stagnant is telling.
The Conservative "halo" effect out west,particularly in BC, is a result of the close by election in BC which is not reflective of how people will vote in another election when major issues are on the table. The Sask. riding could go either way in the next election.
All in all a good poll for the Liberals and must be disappointing for Harper who is probably preparing his next series of lies in his attack ads.
The green party may also be losing "parked" votes back to the Liberals. .
[updated Fri Apr 11 01:54:34 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 01:54
125 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
Take note that the Conservative support has not stagnated as you suggest. It is up 5%.
The people of Ontario will need to make a decision in the next election and that will be do they want a PM with proven abilities or a leader who has not be able to unite his own party and who has abstained and flip flopped on the major issues of the day.
Dion's caricature has been defined by the Conservatives and the media and while the Lib brand is still strong in the GTA and the Maritimes support for the Liberal party is very soft and very soft in deed nationally.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:24:55 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 10:24
Those attack ads have worked. Not on policies. On personalities. I wrote this a while back but no newspaper would publish the sucker. Hmm. Is it that bad?
It's delivered in two parts. Part 2 to follow.
Is Stephane Dion Getting the “Joe Clark Treatment?” (Part 1)
The Conservatives have vilified Stephane Dion’s leadership for over a year now, everything from repeated and vile attack ads to ongoing, talking point slurs from the chosen few who are allowed to speak to the media. Most pundits in the mainstream media have succumbed to this smear job, even many of Canada’s most seasoned political commentators.
“Not so,” I’m certain their response, “Mr. Dion earned our displeasure.” But let’s look at the facts.
Sure, the Liberals lost Outremont, and another seat on March 17, but by-elections are politically meaningless when the balance of power is not at stake.
In fact, despite negative press and the huge disadvantage of being in opposition and competition for centre-left votes from the NDP, the Green party and the Bloc, Mr. Dion’s Liberals have hung tough with the Conservatives in the polls to this day. Nanos Research, consistently the most accurate political pollster in Canada, has the Liberals in a slight lead!
Yes, Mr. Dion’s English is imperfect and there are about 20 words his speechwriters should never use. But otherwise his English is quite decent.
The media also criticizes Mr. Dion for not bringing down the Harper government. Come on. Four of five Canadians don’t want another election. If the Liberals had caused one last fall based on an innocuous throne speech of all things, or relatively minor bills, the electorate would not have been kind.
Many pundits predicted an election over Afghanistan and/or the recent federal budget. Instead, Mr. Dion has been widely praised (myself excluded) for brokering a deal with the Tories concerning the war mission that nudges us towards more peacekeeping and reconstruction. The Liberals also quite wisely refused to force an election over Mr. Harper’s do-nothing budget.
So, the same pundits with egg all over their face now accuse Mr. Dion of “flip-flopping” and of being a “wimp.” Mr. Dion is not getting the “Joe Clark” treatment quite yet, but it’s surely gotten out of hand. The “wolf pack mentality” has set in.
In Part 2, I argue 5 reasons the MSM is wrong about Mr. Dion.try
[updated Fri Apr 11 13:59:30 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 13:59
Here is why the mainstream media have got it wrong about Mr. Dion.:
1. Restoration of Trust and Unity within the Liberal Party:
Mr. Dion won the Liberal leadership race fair and square, marked by civility and open debate with many excellent candidates. He has since overcome the fractious Martin-Chretien years, drawing all of his former opponents to his team. Despite the odd flare-up in Quebec, he has restored trust and unity within his party, which is surely a remarkable feat and leadership goal number one.
2. The Liberals have Better Policies
Leaders are also only as good as the direction they’re heading. Mr. Dion has it all over Mr. Harper on this count too. Mr. Harper’s singular purpose is to emasculate the federal government except for defence and security, while most Canadians favour the Liberal vision of Canada – an activist government on a whole slew of policy issues, including Afghanistan, the environment, Aboriginal and women’s rights, childcare, fighting poverty, progressive taxation and fair trade.
Mr. Harper’s enthusiastic support for all things American is another clear distinction in Mr. Dion’s favour. No reasonable person still supports the Bush administration’s disastrous wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and on terror generally, further “deep integration” with a sinking ship and so on. With the political demise of Mssrs. Blair and Howard, Mr. Harper is arguably the last Bush poodle.
3. The Liberals Have a Better Team
Good leaders surround themselves with competent people and empower and support their team. Most Canadians surely prefer Michael Ignatief, Bob Rae, Ralph Goodale and the other Liberals, including much higher female representation, over Mr. Harper’s all-male pit bulls and poodles. And the Liberals are free to speak while the Tories, even Ministers, have been muzzled, so much so it seems his PR people are running the country!
4. Mr. Dion’s Leadership Style is in fact Superior
Leaders vary from autocratic to democratic and it is clear to which camp Mr. Harper belongs. He’s an arrogant, dismissive and secretive control freak who doesn’t trust his own team. He has centralized power in his office to ridiculous degrees and, when criticized, he resorts to smear tactics and name-calling.
Mr. Harper’s astounding censorship of the federal bureaucracy is so unbelievable that one wonders what all those communications people are doing these days. I suspect mostly preparing talking points for Ministers in advance of forced disclosures of the embarrassing kind under the Access to Information Act.
Wrong on critical policy issues and unwilling to admit mistakes. Obsessed with control and secrecy. Disrespectful of political opponents and even his own team. Is that leadership or is it dictatorship?
In contrast, Mr. Dion is a proven healer with an empowered team and has a vision most Canadians prefer. When it comes to the human side of leadership, building consensus based on right vs. wrong and making choices to help the disadvantaged the most, Mr. Dion is the clear winner.
5. Women and Ontario Will Vote Liberal, No Matter the Media
Finally, when push comes to shove, it is a given that the 52% of the electorate who happen to be women prefer Mr. Dion over Mr. Harper by a considerable margin. The Liberals’ superior position on issues of war and peace, human rights, representation of women in Parliament and child care will keep that margin wide into the foreseeable future. Women aren’t fond of old boys’ clubs and they don‘t vote for bullies.
For someone who is widely reported as a cunning tactician, Mr. Harper has been unbelievably stupid in his treatment of Ontario (the Maritimes, etc.). Coming up with legislation that shortchanges Ontario by fully ten federal ridings is a gift to the Liberals whenever the next election. And allowing the Finance minister, Jim Flaherty, to run off at the mouth trashing Ontario’s business environment is the height of political folly.
So, Mr. Dion and the Liberals bide their time. The Conservatives are embroiled in an increasing number of scandals that are showing their true colours. The economy is heading south but, because they’ve squandered the budget surplus on useless measures such as the GST cuts and offensive military weapons, the room to take action is limited.
The time for an election is growing on the simple grounds that the Harper government will keep shooting itself in the foot. They’ve only got so many toes.
Now, if only the mainstream media would do their job!
[updated Fri Apr 11 14:01:38 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 14:01
hollinm
Thanks for the propaganda.
I could go through your points and take issue with a lot of them. However, it is not worth it because it achieves nothing.
Dion is not forcing an election because he thinks he can win it.
If he thought he could win it he would have defeated the first budget and we would have had an election. I think Dion and the party knows the shape they are in and are electing to sit things out waiting for winning conditions.
Its interesting that you put forward a thesis which is contrary to all of those people who work on Parliament Hill i.e. the media and other politicians.
If Canadians don't want an election why is that? It would seem to me to be a satisfaction with the status quo.
If the policies of the Harper government were so outrageous as you are quick to point out, Canadians would be demanding an election.
[updated Fri Apr 11 15:10:15 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 15:10
Well then, hollinm, the debate is over. But let me reply to the few points you chose to make.
Mr. Dion knows that 80% of Canadians don't want another election so soon. This is because, other than Afghanistan, Kyoto, Kelowna and a few other Harper negatives, he's actually been a do-nothing PM in the finest Chretien tradition. He's leashed in his extreme RW, although a few appear to have gotten away, of late.
As I challenged you before, which particular Liberal MP has disavowed Mr. Dion? This man has healed the fractious Martin-Chretien years, despite the odd (and relatively minor) flare-ups in Quebec. You say Nanos has the Liberals and Conservatives even at 23%
What I said was that the MSM is patently biased in favour of Mr. Harper, and Canadians still don't buy it. They are the propagandists, not me.
[updated Fri Apr 11 15:32:47 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 15:32
westerner (suspended)
The MSM is blatantly Liberal or NDP in orientation and are very much anti Conservative. I doubt you could go into journalism today with a known bent to the political right.
[updated Fri Apr 11 16:57:45 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 16:57
In which newspaper? The Torstar. which is even-haned as you can get? On which network.
Look around, my man. The MSM is owned, lock, stock and barrel by, surpise, corporations, aka Big Business.
There have been studies by experts on the run up to the Iraq war. Of all commentators and comments that made the press or airwaves, 99% were in favour of attacking. The same up here.
You don't read or hear the news everyday. It's propaganda. Maybe a bit more subtle than Goebels. But hardly.
[updated Fri Apr 11 17:17:02 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 17:17
westerner (suspended)
The Red Stars' Susan Delacourt openly admits the Star is a Liberal friendly paper. If you are of a Liberal (left) persuasion I can see how you would see it as "even-handed". Conservatives see the partisan reporting everyday but that is OK because it has declared it' bias, unlike the CBC.
Like I say, we all hear things differently based on our biases.
I am not nearly as skeptical as you. You see many negatives in life.
[updated Fri Apr 11 18:10:51 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 18:10
hollinm
You are absolutely right about the Star. I saw the program where Delacourt clearly admitted they have a Liberal bias. For anybody to say that the Star is even handed is not in touch with the reality of today political environment or chooses to see things differently despite the evidence.
[updated Fri Apr 11 21:02:00 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 21:02
hollinm
You keep repeating the same losing arguments. Nobody believes them. It's time to move on.
[updated Fri Apr 11 18:16:42 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 18:16
parnel
Hollinm, your arguments are equally repetitive and without merit and nobodt believes the things you say and even a poll by the besy National polster out there has you questioning the logic.
Quit drinking the koolaid and come to your senses.......HARPER IS NOT GOING TO MAKE IT A SECOND TIME AROUND.
[updated Sat Apr 12 12:43:47 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 12:43
hollinm
I will repeat it for you parnel. Regardless of what you say actions speak louder than words
I repeat:
IF DION THOUGHT HE COULD WIN THE ELECTION TODAY DO YOU THINK HE WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTING THE GOVERNMENT'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA.
I don't think so. You can continue to argue until the cows come home about what a great leader Dion is and how the party will be ready when they feel they want to bring down the government but the proof is in the pudding.
[updated Sat Apr 12 21:37:25 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 21:37
parnel
hollinm, maybe you should drink some of this koolaid that much pretty much sums up why I'm a liberal and not a Tory with no vision.
http://www.liberal.ca/story_13794_e.aspx
[updated Sat Apr 12 12:47:10 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 12:47
hollinm
Sorry my spam filter blocked access to the link.
[updated Sat Apr 12 21:41:05 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 21:41
parnel
Hollinm, I wonder if you have read this piece about the dysfunctional stuff going on within your beloved party.
Harper will have them taken out and shot at dawn....LOL
That's one of the reasons the Tories can't grow in the polls...thye keep on screwing up and the Liberals are standing by and laughing all the way to an eventual election with guns loaded.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080411.wverner12/BNStory/National/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
[updated Sat Apr 12 13:00:49 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 13:00
hollinm
I copied and pasted the link but could not find the document.
Oh the Libs are laughing are they? Doesn't look like it when you watch Goodale on TV. He looks like a spastic idiot who can't control his mouth. Pompous ass that's what he is.
I was very disappointed to see Bob Rae, after an absence of almost 30 years in the House, lead off with a smear tactic. He surely is a Liberal now. I was looking for better questions from him.
The Libs are so desperate they are resorting to smears tactics everyday in the House. People like you may love it might the regular folk who care to watch the farse just yawn. What a shame for the once natural governing party of Canada.
Parnel do you not see what is happening here. Harper is stripping away the Liberl brand layer by layer. First it was the budgets, then Kyoto, then crime, then the Quebecois nation declaration, Afghanistan mission, now he is forcing the Libs to support the immigration changes. The latter is the heart of the Liberal party because they bought immigrant votes over the years focusing on family reunification rather than the needs of the country. Layer by layer.
If Dion allows Harper to govern until 2009 there will be nothing left for the Liberals to sell to Canadians because they will stand for nothing.
[updated Sat Apr 12 21:57:51 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 21:57
parnel
So you are telling me Harper is a Liberal now? If that's the case people will elect the real Liberals to ensure social justice and surpluses are maintained
[updated Sat Apr 12 22:11:59 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 22:11
parnel
Senator caught saying Verner hates Bill C-10
GLORIA GALLOWAY
Here's a snippet from the article:
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
April 12, 2008 at 12:54 AM EDT
OTTAWA — Heritage Minister Josée Verner secretly opposes a government bill that Canada's entertainment industry has decried as censorship, says the Conservative chair of the Senate committee that is examining the legislation.
During a break in Senate banking committee hearings on Thursday, Senator David Angus turned to a Conservative colleague and chatted about Bill C-10, which would, among other things, deny tax credits to productions the government deems offensive. The senator didn't realize his microphone was on and the camera running.
[updated Sat Apr 12 22:16:21 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 22:16
hollinm
Oh parnel you are really grabbing at straws now.
It was the Liberal bill from 2001 and was passed recently by the whole House.
Desperation my friend, desperation.
[updated Sat Apr 12 22:48:08 -0400 2008]
12 Apr 22:48
parnel
There's no desperation here except to get rid of these poor economic managers, liars and bribers in a hurry. Dion has a super team of experienced people who know how government works and will not need a kindergarten class.......one that Harper and co. haven't graduated from yet.
For the Liberals to be so close in the polls must be a nightmare scenario for Harper because all he has left now are hight risk projects while we wait for a possible further deterioration of the economy. I'd rather be a liberal that a right wing wacko supporter today.
The Liberals have poliies that once announced, they will own,and no amount of mud slinging and dirty tricks will pry those from the voters intentions and that is what really causes the dirty diapers inside the PMO.
[updated Sun Apr 13 03:44:58 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 03:44
MRM
Parnel. You are right! There is desperation to get rid of these poor econmic managers (liberal Party is broke), liars and bribers (Sponsorship, ShawinaginGate, Brison and Stronach). The problem is that Dion would have no "team" left. In Dion's case though I think no team is better than the one he has.
[updated Sun Apr 13 10:30:01 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 10:30
parnel
We could back to Muldoon's follies if you want to live in the past. I live in the present and this government is full of liars, bribers and an unbelievable amount of incompetence. Dion has purged and reorganized his party. Its called renewal and it's not without pain but its getting done with integrity and honesty.
And not one Liberal MP or senator was ever charged over any of the things you accuse them of. So, it's all in your mind from the brainwashing you get from HQ.
[updated Sun Apr 13 11:06:47 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 11:06
MRM
Who's drinking KoolAid now? If you honestly believe that Dion is a great leader with a brilliant plan and that all of that money went to Liberal Party supporters and the LPC coffers without any elected officials knowing then you are either incredibly naïve or it is you who have been brainwashed. The only thing that will be purged from the LPC soon is Dion and is ever smaller group of followers.
KoolAid, KoolAid tastes great, KoolAid, KoolAid can’t wait!
[updated Sun Apr 13 11:22:03 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 11:22
hollinm
You know Parnel calling people who you do not agree with just shows that you are lost for real arguments.
There is no party who has greater liars and thieves than the Liberal party. So be careful how you refer to others it shows your hypocrisy and that of your favourite party.
Canadians know the difference after adscam.
[updated Sun Apr 13 12:58:28 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 12:58
parnel
Canadians now know that none of their elected Liberal members were responsible but they also know that Harper was seen and heard on a tape giving the ok to bribe Cadman.
I call em as I see 'em;you guys have been calling Dion very similar names and now that the shoe is on the other foot you are suddenly holier than thou.
Canadians know the Harper gang are liars, bribers and thieves and will deal with them appropriately. It will all come out in an election campaign...remember the opposition has the upper hand on scandals in an election. Harper will have it tossed back at him for being unaccountable , a liar on income trusts and an attempted bribe of an MP.
There is more to come but I digress....the Jose Verner affair is the newest peice of stupidity to hit this useless government.
And the Libs are keeping tab.
[updated Sun Apr 13 13:12:29 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 13:12
hollinm
There were no MPs convicted i.e. Alphonso Gagliano because they covered their tracks so well. However, a judge named the Liberal PM, Jean Chretien, as responsible. Canadians believed Judge Gomery and chose to de-elect Paul Martin for that and other shortcomings of the Liberal government.
You can interpret what Harper said on the tape but if you look at the context there are other interpretations that can be made. Instead of being judge, jury and executioneer why don't you let the police determine if there is any wrongdoing. No you want and the rest of the Liberal pack want to be the judge, jury and executioneer for their own partisan purposes.
I have never called Dion a thief, liar, briber and all the other names you call Harper and the Conservative government. It is sad when you can't forcus on the policy differences and discuss them. Oh, I forgot the Liberals have no policies. So there is nothing to discuss.
I have certainly pointed out what I see as shortcomings in Dion's leadership abilities and I believe that is fair comment. After all we are talking about who is best qualified to be the future PM of Canada. In my judgement based on the facts it isn't Dion.
It works both ways. The Conservatives have plenty to use on the Liberals such as sitting on their hands, absenting themselves from critical votes and walking out of the House.
Lack of policies is another issue. Trying to convince people of your policies during the noise of an election is not a winning strategy in my judgement.
You keep pointing out the broken promise on income trusts. I have acknowledged that it was a broken promise. However, if this is the only broken promise you can harp on then Harper is doing pretty well.
The issues that the Cons will use on the Liberals will resonate with people. Talking about faux scandals have not worked thus far and will not work during an election. Too many other issues come up.
The Liberals have still not got it. Trying to attack Harper personally is not the answer. They need to come out with policies that are centrist, not left wing and they need to have a leader who can speak articulately and with some credibility and that is sorrily lacking.
[updated Sun Apr 13 15:12:06 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 15:12
parnel
Covering up your tracks on name calling doesn't cut it with me. you have been umerciful in your attacks on Dion mostly unfounded garbage put out by the Tories and the press who can't get near Harper so they use Dion as their news. His fortunes inside the party are pretty sound and his caucus supports him.
Stop listening to stupid reporters and get some real facts. Iggy has gone out of his way to say he fully supports his leader and so has Rae and others. Kennedy is a strong supporter as well as is Dryden.
My attacks on Harper are pointing out things he lied about, like income trust taxes. He has not kept many promises except the stupid ones like cutting the GST. I personally lost a lot of money due to that stupidity. So do I personally hate Harper? You're damn right I do. So when your pocket book is as affected as mine was tell me you'll write love stories about the gang of incompetents who did it. The bribery story is not going away and your soft peddling of the nuances in that tape are simply astounding particularly after Cadman's family all reported what was offered.
I will defend my support of the Liberals to anyone and the fact is your biased remarks are so slanted as to make you unbelievable.
I didn't start the bad mouthing of the PM, I simply responded to attacks on Dion by you and others which I considered offensive; I was very critical of him for sure and that won't change. In fact my level of attacks on him will only grow as he worsens our economic position and his lies and other stuff gets out in the open. he runs a bad government that is covered up by the secrecy he demands. I think there are lots of scandals under the surface or he wouldn't cloak everything in that secrecy.
His poisonous attitude and attack ad promos are not things I consider as good for Canada and Dion has rightly taken the higher ground there.
[updated Sun Apr 13 15:58:44 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 15:58
parnel
You will also note sooner or later that the Liberals while apparently sitting on their hands have simply been following a strategy of not taking Harper's taunts. They simply won't let him control the election agenda and they will soon choose the issues they will force the Tories to squirm on.
The momentum is changing ever so slightly towards the Liberals as Nick's poll shows and you will see it more pronounced in the near future. There is a plan and it will be acted upon. The policy of not forcing an election will help build their case as a responsible government in waiting.
[updated Sun Apr 13 16:06:02 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 16:06
hollinm
With this post I just about gagged. You really are displaying a sort of zen like blindness to the realties of the real world.
If you have some inside knowledge then perhaps you can share it so I don't feel that you have lost touch with the reality of what's happening to the Liberal party as each day goes by.
[updated Sun Apr 13 23:11:20 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 23:11
hollinm
You stick with your weak, effete leader and I will stick with mine.
Parnel...it is obvious we cannot have a grown up conversation so this will be the last time I will communicate with you until after the next election.
By the way I leave you with one thought and maybe it will sink in:
If Dion thought he could win the election today he would call a vote of non confidence. The other opposition parties are waiting for him to grow some balls.
All the bunk about waiting until the time is right and all that stuff is pure sh.t. An election will be called when he thinks the Liberal party can win and in the meantime Harper will keep pulling the layers of the onion back until such time the Liberals have been stripped of all their principles and will lack any credibility going into the election.
[updated Sun Apr 13 23:08:31 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 23:08
parnel
Keep your wet dreams alive and have a good time.
Your theories are all absolute bunk and you are supporting a party of gigantic economic and social policy incompetence covered up by a shroud of secrecy in the PMO.
Effete as in snob? I love the way some people paraphrase their personal insults. Dio is very personable and likeable in the flesh but has yet to trnaslate that into the sound bite people of lesser intellects like for their political news and education. He will prevail thankfully.
[updated Mon Apr 14 03:50:51 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 03:50
hollinm
"Dio is very personable and likeable in the flesh but has yet to trnaslate that into the sound bite people of lesser intellects like for their political news and education. "
You admit he is a currently a loser and like all the party faithful have this unabiding faith that somehow his personality and his political skills will come to the fore in an election or with time.
You are probably right on a one on one basis he is a nice man but in politics he needs to have the ability to convince the masses that he is capable of being the leader of his party and the next leader of this country. You admit he hasn't done that yet. When parnel, when will he reveal his burning light to we mere mortals?
He is a professor through and through. He is not a natural politician.
[updated Mon Apr 14 08:15:07 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 08:15
I take offense to your name-calling. What do you mean by effete? Too much of his feminine side showing for you? Wimpy? Homosexual?
Of course, maybe you mean Mr. Dion feels and cares too much. Wants to share too much.
[updated Sun Apr 20 16:24:26 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 16:24
MRM
Dysfunctional is just another word for Liberal Party of Canada.
[updated Sun Apr 13 23:58:25 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 23:58
parnel
Dysfunctonal is a good word to describe the current government. Minister Verner has to bring a bill to the house that she detests. Does that fit your use of the word.
Harper is trying to cover up torture abuse by Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan. Harper and co tried to bribe a sitting MP. Are these dysfunctional traits or simply gross incompetence?
You can pound on the LIbs all you want but we are not getting good government and the polls are continuosly indicating that. The Liberals have yet to start a significant move themselves but the fact remains that if Dion is as bad as some so called knowledgeable people are saying the Libs should be back in the pack with the NDP. Guess what? They aren't.
You can massage Harper and his incompetent crew any way you want but the word incompetence continually shows up for this government. Other cover ups that will eventually come out are, I believe, Tory killers.
The Libs are in a rebuilding phase and there will be objections to decisions made by some old guard remnants. The fact they are an open and democratic party possibly lulls some of the die hard Harper supporters, and NDP ones also, into believing there is a schism in the party.
Keep on drinking that koolaid and watch them pass you by.
[updated Mon Apr 14 03:43:48 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 03:43
MRM
Unless you know something that the rest of the world does not, which is highly unlikely, Canadian soldiers are not being accused of torture in Afghanistan. That is why the MP Complaints Commission is out of its jurisdiction. Their mandate is to investigate complaints against the Military Police of which this is not. The government is challenging this on Gen Hillier's request because it sets a bad precedent by allowing the opposition and organizations like Amnesty International to try and backdoor an investigation. It would ultimately go nowhere but would be another smear campaign against the military.
As for the polls the latest Ipsos poll done on 12 Apr shows a CPC lead of 5 points at 35%. The LPC is down 2% and the NDP are up 3%. So the gap is narrowing between the left wing parties. This is pretty good for a ruling minority government and terrible for an opposition. This coupled with the incredibly bad personal numbers for Dion and the riding by riding breakdown will make for a small minority win for the Tories if an election were called today.
[updated Mon Apr 14 07:56:25 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 07:56
parnel
Drink more koolaid...waht do you do when the brainwashing website Harper puts out for answers has not been updated?
In other words pure garbage and Ipsos is not an accurate federal pollster.ask Nick!!
[updated Mon Apr 14 09:00:50 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 09:00
MRM
With responses like this it should be no surprise to you that no one on this site takes you seriously.
[updated Mon Apr 14 10:21:31 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 10:21
parnel
That's fine with me.......but at least I speak the truth and it hurts. read Chantal Hebert in the TO star this am and see how confident your special party is. Thry are actually starting to run scared. Must be those positive polls you keep hammering us with that are nowhere near as accurate as our host here.
Keep on drinking the koolaid........pimples will follow!!
[updated Mon Apr 14 10:33:31 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 10:33
MRM
I just read Chantal Hebert's article. Great article! Perhaps you should have a look at it. It is entitled "Dion's slide started with green plan". It points out how he has made the wrong decision on virtually every issue since becoming leader. I couldn't agree more. Thanks for pointing it out.
[updated Mon Apr 14 15:35:49 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 15:35
parnel
Of course being a tory supporter you didn't read the right article.
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/413527
"The notion of a Harper team became an oxymoron; many cabinet members came to share the media's sense that the PMO's abrasive approach to communications served neither the government's message nor its image well."
At least she's balanced and she picked Paul Martin to win the last election. She dislikes Dion because she is a bit of a nationalist from Quebec. Then again its obvious Harper the Fuerher is not her favorite either.
[updated Mon Apr 14 15:51:11 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 15:51
MRM
I read the only article that she has in today's Star. A search on the Star site at the address you gave showed 0 results. No matter, it is no secret that the media are upset with the PM because he does not give them unfettered access to to the PMO. He does not do so with good reason. They have proven time and again that most are left wing hacks who cannot be trusted. That does not change the fact that Dion has nowhere to go but down, in large part because he is just a terrible leader.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:03:15 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:03
parnel
Blah blah blah...more stuff from your minders!!!
Again I ask why hasn't Harper grown in the polls if his opponent is so weak
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:08:42 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:08
MRM
Very well thought out response. I guess if you have no facts to back up your arguments a couple of Blah Blahs always fills the gap. Latest poll from 12 Apr - Tories at 35 %, Grits down 2% at 30% and dropping like a stone.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:14:04 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:14
parnel
If harper wasn't so stupid in setting a fixed election date he could have called one by now instead of being trapped by Dion.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:24:31 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:24
MRM
That sly and cunning Dion must have a well hidden, brilliant plan in the works? As soon as he is below 10% in the polls (not long now) he will spring it on us and we'll all be sorry then!
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:49:16 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:49
Chantal Hebert doesn't deserve her job. She is parochial and, as I've said many times, patently anti-Dion. Someone so consistently biased should be fired.
Dion is even up with Harper, according to Nanos. Not bad for a loser, wimp, etc.
Canadians will vote for decency. This would be Harper's Achilles' heel.
[updated Mon Apr 14 15:54:30 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 15:54
MRM
Wait a minute, you and Parnel are disagreeing? Parnel says she is "balanced" and you say that she should be fired. Maybe you two should talk it over. We can talk more after that.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:06:06 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:06
parnel
Not really...I did say she dislikes Dion did I not......then again no one fed you that answer obviously so its hard. We understand
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:10:50 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:10
MRM
rsharp. Never mind, Apparently she is not balanced anymore. Note next time you bemoan the rest of us about how we treat poor Parnel. The answer is above.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:17:37 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:17
I do. More serious still are the constant insults hurled at parnel by you and your gang (hollinm and westerner). Watch out. The Moderator is at the door.
[updated Mon Apr 14 11:27:02 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 11:27
MRM
Sorry, it's the Kool Aid.
[updated Mon Apr 14 15:20:50 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 15:20
I'm a beer drinker. My mouth goes down hill from there. lol
[updated Mon Apr 14 15:28:18 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 15:28
parnel
rsharp..talking sense to rabid Tory right wingers is like climbing mount everest. You soon run out of oxygen and your brain starts to act like them.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:28:03 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:28
MRM
rsharp. Like I said there 's your answer.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:44:51 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:44
MRM
I’ll respond rsharp.
1. The statement that Dion has “restored trust and unity within his party” is at best laughable, at worst naïve and completely out of touch with what is actually going on in the party. The LPC has never been so fractured, discontented and disorganized. You have open revolt in the Quebec wing, lead behind the scenes by Ignatieff and a more subtle one going on in Ontario lead by Rae. Never before in history has the party had trouble getting a full slate of candidates to run for them. They will remain in disarray until after the next election or a palace coup takes place.
2. In the area leadership clearly Canadians do not agree with your assertion that “Mr. Dion has it all over Mr. Harper on this count too. Mr. Harper” since he leads him by more than two to one on that count with a personal approval rating of over 50%. On policies the Liberals cannot seem to adopt one and stick to it or they talk a good game and then vote with the government so I think that in general Canadians are just confused by their policies. They bounce all over on Afghanistan; at least the Tories and NDP have a clear policy on the mission. On the environment, thankfully Dion signed Kyoto and then in true Liberal fashion did nothing except name his dog after it. Canadians now know what an incredibly bad deal it really is. As for Aboriginal and women’s rights, the Tories have done more in two years than the Grits have done in the past thirteen. In fact I just heard the other day that the Inuit are so happy that they are naming an island after the PM. They continue to solve long standing native land claims at an astonishing rate. The same is true of other long standing issues like the Residential School Issue, the wrongs done to the Japanese citizens during WWII and others social issue largely ignored by the Grits. In the area of child care, believe it or not most Canadians do not believe that their tax dollars should go toward and incredibly expensive state run daycare system where 8/10ths of every dollar spent goes to overhead. Fighting poverty is best achieved by giving people a hand up not a hand out. This is done by creating jobs so that people can make a decent living and by lowering personal income taxes so that they can keep more of what they earn and thereby drive the economy. This is why the Tories have the most progressive taxation policies ever in this country and we continue to enjoy record trade surpluses even with the high dollar. The Tories have instituted the largest cuts to both personal and corporate taxes just for that reason.
3. Liberals have a better team? You obviously have a different notion of “team” than I do. Go back to paragraph one for more detail.
4. Dion’s Leadership Style is in fact Superior? Again, this statement is just laughable and not supported by fact or even reality. Good leaders do not loose total control of their parties as is now the case with Dion. Again, refer to para one.
5. You have a very low opinion of women. I think they can make their own minds up and so I’ll let them speak for themselves.
As for biding their time, the more Canadians see of their unprincipled approach to politics the more disgusted they get.
[updated Sun Apr 13 08:48:05 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 08:48
parnel
1. Number 1 tells me you haven't a clue and are making it up as you go...I know for a fact that what you said is absolutely false. Getting candidates to run is not the problem;getting the rights ones is the issue.
Dion has their interest but like most who are going to give up another career they want to be sure there is going to be an election and also an election they can win. All parties go through this and I also know for a fact Harper has his own problems getting people to run in certain areas. Even Emerson does not want to run again and harper cannot convince him to do so.
2. On popularity Harper has it all over Dion,supposedly, but cannot close the deal with the population so it makes little difference.Dion was nowhere in that count heading into the leadership campaign and look what happened at the finish line where it really mattered.
The rest of your stuff is more made up garbage.
Ask the aboriginals if Harper has done well by them.
They put a bulldog in the environment role just to yell louder at everyone. He has done nothing but waffle and make minor announcements of no consequence.
Tories and progressive taxation in the same sentence is the biggest joke yet......driving us into a deficit with stupid populist tax reductions in GST is pure bunk and absolutely lousy economics. They even raised income taxes when first elected only to cut those increases a year later and call them tax reductions.What a joke.
Ask any other real progressive state how they raise their taxes...its by very low income tax and higher consumption taxes. These turkeys are going in the opposite direction and will kill our economy in due time with huge deficits if allowed to stay in power.
You had better look more closely at where our surpluses are coming from and realize its not from value added manufacturing but mostly from $100 plus oil that goes to the US with virtually no value added to it. Drink more koolaid.
3. You will see the real meaning of team from the Liberals as opposed to the dictator status Harper demands. They absolutely know where they are going and will be very impressive in the next election.
4. Dion has lost control of his party?...that is the next real joke you tell. I will say no more other than he's in full charge and responsibile for his party's actions and he has full support in caucus.
5. Nonsense statement and as usual right from the tory playbook they give you to follow.
You are right; people are getting so cynical of the tories and the Liberals are simply waiting them out so a majority is a virtual assurance in an election.They don't want a minority government because they know they can reach for the fences while Harper and his gang of zeroes have peaked and can't grow no matter what they do other than becoming Liberals.
[updated Sun Apr 13 10:53:54 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 10:53
MRM
Of course this is your typical, vile, mean spirited, factless ideological rant. It fills a page but says absolutely nothing meaningful. As for the issue of a full slate of candidates, my source is Mike Duffy Live and I'll take his political acumen over your nonsense 10 out 10 times.
[updated Sun Apr 13 11:06:32 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 11:06
parnel
My so called vile stuff is in direct response to your diatribe. Mike Duffy reports the way he sees fit and as you all know the press is very biased and truth is not their prime motive. I beleive you have said that yourself. I absolutely know differently on the candidate front.
If my stuff is factless attack it if you can get it from the tory playbook or your vivid imagination.
[updated Sun Apr 13 11:14:32 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 11:14
MRM
From where I sit your endless diatribe of left wing nonsense is for the most part unintelligable giberish fabricated in some fantasy world that you live in (perhaps Dubai?). If you have some facts to support your case where are they. By the way what exactly is your case again?
[updated Sun Apr 13 23:43:52 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 23:43
hollinm
Good reply!
[updated Sun Apr 13 13:02:38 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 13:02
You are quite a trio, MRM, hollinm and westerner. I've observed you for some time now. You are like trained poodles.
Independent thought? Never. Party Line? Always. Facts? Don't matter.
What is clear is that doing the greatest good for the greatest number isn't even on your radar screen.
[updated Sun Apr 13 15:39:57 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 15:39
hollinm
Perhaps you would do the three of us the honour of being forward your position on various policies etc. rather than calling the government and Harper names. Your far left views are out of step in Canada. We are more centrist and maybe just a bit left of centre but all the things you espouse is not where the mainstream of Canadian society.
If you think the Libs have governed from the left then you need to take a history lesson. They are not the answer to the things you talk about and want to see for this country. When you rail against the media and spout your left wing ideology people tend to ignore you as not being serious.
You and parnel are great at making unsubstantiated broad statements without any evidence other than partisan rhetoric.
I have mentioned to you before that I voted for Trudeau, Chretien & Mulroney and then moved to the Reform party when I became disillusioned with the way politics was going in this country.
I do think with an independent mind but when I see the Liberal party as the only alternative then my mind is made up. I wouldn't trust them to govern an ice cream stand. They stole money from taxpayers and did virtually nothing to move the country forward in the 13 years they were in power. Chretien was quite happy with the status quo. The Libs want power for the sake of power.
[updated Sun Apr 13 22:59:21 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 22:59
1. I didn't call Harper any names (this time).
2. I am not far left (I am left of that).
3. I am not railing or spouting (I speak with a great calm in my soul).
4. I substantiate everything I write.
5. You, MRM and westerner are the kings of "partisan rhetoric."
[updated Mon Apr 14 00:18:00 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 00:18
MRM
Then why is it that when challenged you don't respond? Please feel free to "substantiate" the last few times I have responded to you. I promise to respond with great calm in my soul as well. Please don't leave it to Parnel this time.
[updated Mon Apr 14 00:32:32 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 00:32
Well, I even numbered my issues to simplify the debate. Let's try again:
1. War and peace
2. The environment
3. Health care and education
4. The economy
5. Help for the disadvantaged, here and abroad
6. Our rights and freedoms (vs. this dumb "war on terror")
7. Looking out for future generations.
On which of these or any other issues do you wish to debate? Let's go!
[updated Mon Apr 14 00:58:10 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 00:58
MRM
Like I said earlier, all of them. I have already responded to #1. to which you have not yet reponded but here it is again. Remember the last time we did this when I said you go first and then you sent this:
War. We haven't been invaded since 1812 and no country could afford to invade us now. Not China. Not Russia. Not even the good old US of A.
Harper has turned our Department of Defence into the Department of Offence. Let's talk about that.
Then you cherry picked a small part of my reponse and came back with this:
Last I looked, the US outspent China on military stuff by about 20 to one. And that doesn't include "one-offs" like Iraq or Afghanistan. Or it's nuclear and other global incineration programs.
We are so dumbed down by the Yanks. They win,
[updated Sat Apr 05 12:41:22 EDT 2008]
I answered with this:
I guess its been a while since you looked. US Defense Dept procurement budget for FY 08/09 is 84 billion US. China's is 57 billion US. Since within China there is about a 6:1 ratio in buying power this would be equivalent to over 200 billion US in procurement. As well, the bulk of US procurment spending is used to maintain the force structure not increase their capability unlike China which continues to build and modernize the largest military in the world. Particularily in offensive capability.
[updated Sat Apr 05 17:03:46 EDT 2008]
[updated Sat Apr 05 10:48:24 EDT 2008]
I responded with this:
OK. You seem to be historically challenged but while we have not been "invaded" as you put it but we have been attacked, most recently by terrorists. Not sure why you think that being invaded or not is the yardstick for whether or not we should be have a military? This is typical left wing naive thinking. It is precisely because we have maintained a military capability and alliances with our friends and neighbours that we not been invaded. Sometimes these alliances require us to pony up and come to the aid of our partners, even when we are not directly affected. Like the 50 years we spent in Central Europe that eventually saw the demise of the Soviet Union. What if we had not participated in WW2? Do you think that Hitler would have stopped at Russia and England? Even if he had stopped what kind of world would we be in today? Certainly not the utopian socialistic society you envision. And by the way Afghanistan is not the first peace making mission that we have been on. Most recently we have engaged in three different peace making missions in the Balkans. All of which were a success. Had your ilk been in power no doubt we would have had neither the capability nor the backbone to participate and as a result we would not have any allies in the world and those poor people in the Balkans would still be subjected to genocide. For someone who portends to socially conscious you are very quick to condemn others in the world to suffer because of your isolationist views. As well your views on the capabilities and intentions of China are also naive. They are currently have the largest military in world and are using their new found wealth to engage in the largest, most expensive military modernization program in history. All while they have 500 million people starving. One does not put this kind of effort into a military for purely defensive reasons.
[updated Sat Apr 05 11:26:28 EDT 2008]
Just saving us both the trouble of going over the same ground again. Over to you for the next topic...
[updated Mon Apr 14 01:45:27 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 01:45
US defence spending at $84 billion for 08/09. How wildly inaccurate can you be. The Iraq war. alone, is heading ror three trillion dollars.
Last I looked, China had zero overseas military bases vs. 750 American. Last I looked, China had not invaded or bombed any other country since Vietnam vs. about 6,000 American "adventures," all in violation of international law.
[updated Mon Apr 14 02:23:50 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 02:23
MRM
This shows how little you actually know about defence spending. I did not say 84 billion in defence spending. I said procurement. As for China the good as you would have us believe they are currently occupying Tibet and Mongolia against their will and the status of Manchuria is debatable. As well they continue to terrorize their own citizens and the people of Hong Kong. They pose a constant threat to their neighbours like Taiwan and India where just last week we heard in the news that they have been making military incursions into Indian border areas. US foreign military bases are there at the behest of the governments in question as part of an alliance. Not as foreign occupiers with possible exception of Iraq depending on how you spin it.
[updated Mon Apr 14 08:19:07 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 08:19
So what does "procurement," a line item from the USA's $650 billion annual military "budget," have to do with the price of eggs?
The topic is war and peace. The Americans happen to make a lot of the former, and most reasonable people see them as a rogue nation, repeatedly violating the sovereignty of other countries through invasions, occupations, bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, indefinite detention without trial, torture and on and on.
How can we possibly condone these war crimes? We need to distance ourselves from this gang of murderers, liars and thieves.
Mr. Harper? He is the last Bush poodle standing. Maybe lapdog is a more appropriate descriptor..
[updated Mon Apr 14 11:12:22 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 11:12
MRM
The actual US defence budget is 439.3 billion. It is you that made an issue of spending. Now that you cannot defend that position it is all of a sudden unimportant. The US is reponsible for most of the peace in this century. If it were not for them I suspect that you would be not enjoying the lifestyle and freedom that you now have. To call our closest friend and ally a "gang of murderers, liars and thieves." is just a bunch of over the top left wing nonsense that does not merit further discussion. Move on to the next topic or don't?
[updated Mon Apr 14 15:46:15 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 15:46
Dead wrong, MRM. Throw in "one-offs" like the wars against Iraq and Afghanistan. Nuclear weapons. The security-industrial complex (the CIA and 100+ other spook agencies). $650 billion is an under-estimate!
The US is responsible for peace? Where? The Middle East? Africa? Asia? South America? Where?
The US is responsible for about 6,000 prima facie violations of international law since WW II. 6,000 invasions, bombings, assassinations, etc. That's about 30 each for every country in the world.
Here's what I call murder. About one million Iraqi and Afgjhani civilians dead due to unnecessary wars. One million! Add on ten million injured, many horribly. Five to ten million displaced. And for what?
.
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:12:40 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:12
MRM
Wait a minute, you set the criteria for how the budget is defined when you said:
"Last I looked, the US outspent China on military stuff by about 20 to one. And that doesn't include "one-offs" like Iraq or Afghanistan. Or it's nuclear and other global incineration programs."
I did not include these figures in the Chinese numbers. So now that it suits you you include these figures.
You also have a problem with your Iraq figures. They obviously come from some left wing propaganda site like AntiWar.com. Here is a more credible source:
"An independent UK/US group, the Iraq Body Count project (IBC), compiles reported Iraqi civilian deaths resulting from the invasion and occupation, including those caused directly by coalition military action, those caused directly by the Iraqi insurgency, and those resulting from excess crime. It shows a minimum of 81,881 and a maximum of 89,360 between the US invasion and 12 March 2008."
The US is responsible for not having a WW 3 and 50 years of peace in Europe. If you are going to blame the US for all the wars since WW 2 remember it takes more that one to disagree so you also need to blame the Russians, Chinese, British, French and many others...
[updated Mon Apr 14 16:42:57 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 16:42
MRM
rsharp,
I'll start us off on the next topic:
PART ONE: THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT POSITION
The Canadian approach is quite realistic and reasonable which is why it enjoys such wide spread public support among non-EU countries and less public support by some within the EU. The Canadian position is simple, it is that the worlds worst (China), second worst (US) and third worst (India) polluters must be included in a deal. Since they account for most GHG emissions any deal without them would be useless. For instance, by 2011 when Kyoto expires China will have built 850 dirty (no filters) coal fired generating plants. They will produce five times the GHG that would be saved under Kyoto if every signatory achieved their targeted cuts. To not include them while we reduce emissions simply allows them to steal our industry while they pollute unfettered by Kyoto and in the process more than replace any reductions we would make so our sacrifice would be for naught. Conversely, Canada contends that if these countries were included in an agreement then the overall cuts needed by other countries could be reduced to achievable goals.
Specifically the Canadian Governments approach is that the truly developing countries must participate in reductions now with Western assistance. In other words, rather than getting a pass on Kyoto so that they can continue to pollute without restrictions, we will assist them technologically and financially as they grow their economies so that it is done in an environmentally friendly way. I reject the Liberal and NDP notion that they should not be forced to do so until they are “ready”, whenever that might be? If the opposition parties are sincere about climate change then they will agree that the world cannot wait. Regardless of who is most responsible for GHG emissions the environment cannot distinguish between emissions from a developed country vice a developing country so the problem must be addressed by all at once if it is going to have any chance for success. If we follow Mr. Dion and Mr. Layton’s approach these countries will not be “ready” until they have sucked every job they can out of the so called developed countries.
Another aspect of Canada’s position is that countries like India, China and Brazil are not truly developing countries. Particularly China and India who are now among the world’s largest GHG emitters along with the U.S. Coincidently they also have the largest defence budgets next to the U.S so they can also afford Kyoto.
As for Brazil their answer to global warming is ethanol. Of course they have the largest ethanol production capability in the world so this would be a natural position for them to take. And with a free pass as a developing nation under Kyoto they have plans to triple production. Never mind that in order to do so they will also triple the rate that they are destroying the Amazon Rain Forest in order to convert it to farm land which of course would actually inhibit the planet’s ability to naturally deal with GHG. No matter, they are still compliant with Kyoto so they are good and Canada is bad.
Part Two will be the Liberal position. Over to you.
[updated Mon Apr 14 21:36:41 -0400 2008]
14 Apr 21:36
If you believe the "party line" that ONLY 80-90 thousand Iraqis have been killed as a result of this unnecessary war, may you go in peace. I assume you believe that this is an acceptable loss of human life.
[updated Sun Apr 20 02:19:56 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 02:19
MRM
Nice to see that you are out of hiding.
Unfortunately civil losses unavoidable in war. Particularly when dealing with terrorists who have no regard for the lives of their own people. I know uber lefties like you will never believe that but that is just the way it is. Not to worry though, others will protect your right to have you your left wing views so you are safe from persecution and terrorist attack. Those numbers are not the party line, it is an independent assessment and no loss of life is "acceptable” but the term “ONLY 80-90 thousand” seems a bit harsh.
How about the next topic or are you afraid to debate the environment. You issued the challenge so in your words “let’s go”!
[updated Sun Apr 20 08:01:01 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 08:01
Some "independent" assessment. The total number of innocent civillians killed is more like one million. Many millions more maimed for life. Many millions more displaced. All in the name of an illegal, unjust, wasteful and unwinnable wars. That have increased the threat of terrorism manifold. How is that keeping any of us safe?
George Bush as global chief of police, chief spymaster, magistrate, prison warden and executioner? No thanks.
How can you hang your hat with this murderous liar and thief? This is Mr. Harper's Achilles heel and it has nothing to do with anti-Americanism. Everything to do with right vs. wrong and the pursuit of peace and justice.
[updated Sun Apr 20 10:53:06 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 10:53
MRM
I have stated on this blog that I am no fan of the war in Iraq so I am not "hanging my hat" on anything. You lefties cannot separate Iraq from Afghanistan because the issue is far to complex for you to understand. Never the less that does not mean that I will let you spout nonsense and try and make some very good soldiers look like murders, war mongers, occupiers or what ever other ridiculous names you come up with. Again you quote figures but cannot provide any credible source for them. What happened to "I always back up my statements with fact, always!"?
[updated Sun Apr 20 12:48:51 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 12:48
MRM, do you not know that Iraq Body Count only counts deaths reported in newspapers and on TV? It's simply not a credible organization.
Johns Hopkins School of Health is credible, and it set the number and 650k, as of July 2006. There are countless other independent sources that support a much higher death toll.
[updated Sun Apr 20 14:08:41 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 14:08
MRM
Of course you are wrong about the IBC. A quote from their website. Take particular note of the part about how data is collected:
Iraq Body Count is an ongoing human security project which maintains and updates the world’s largest public database of violent civilian deaths during and since the 2003 invasion. The count encompasses non-combatants killed by military or paramilitary action and the breakdown in civil security following the invasion.
Data is drawn from cross-checked media reports, hospital, morgue, NGO and official figures to produce a credible record of known deaths and incidents.
You are also wrong about the John’s Hopkins Report. Every credible source, including the UN disagrees with this very controversial report. A quote from the World Health Organization estimates that the death toll is about 151K but this includes military casualties as well:
From Journalist Chris Jones and the New England Journal of Medicine:
A favorite liberal past time has been to cite the absurd study done by Johns Hopkins University and various anti-war groups that put the civilian death toll in Iraq at over 600,000. Using only basic human logic it’s easy to see how massively inflated that number is, but logic doesn’t matter when it conflicts with the left-wing agenda.
The World Health Organization has been conducting their own study, one grounded in some semblance of reality. The results of the study have been published in the New England Journal of Medicine, and put the estimated civilian death toll in Iraq since the start of the war at 151,000. They Report:
“A much smaller mortality survey (1849 households in 47 clusters) by Mr. Burnham at John’s Hopkins came up with a best estimate of 601,027 violent deaths. The best estimate on the number of deaths from March 2003 through June 2006 based on the WHO / IFHS data analysis and comparisons with other sources is three times as high as that reported by the Iraq Body Count due largely to the inclusion of Iraqi military deaths but only one fourth of that reported by Burnham et al. On the basis of simulations that took into account survey sampling errors and estimated probable uncertainty in the adjustment factors for missing clusters, in the level of underreporting, and in projected population figures, we estimated that there were 151,000 violent deaths in Iraq during this period.”
[updated Sun Apr 20 17:14:20 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 17:14
On Friday, September 14, 2007, ORB (Opinion Research Business), an independent polling agency located in London, published estimates of the total war casualties in Iraq since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.[1] At over 1.2 million deaths (1,220,580), this estimate is the highest number published so far, outnumbering even the death toll of the recent Rwandan genocide.[2] From the poll margin of error of +/-2.5% ORB calculated a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths. The ORB estimate was performed by a random survey of 1,720 adults aged 18+, out of which 1,499 responded, in fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq, between August 12 and August 19, 2007.[3][4] In comparison, the 2006 Lancet survey suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths) through the end of June 2006. The Lancet authors calculated a range of 392,979 to 942,636 deaths.
On 28 January 2008, ORB published an update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken and as a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.[5]
[updated Sun Apr 20 17:41:53 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 17:41
MRM
The WHO/IFHS is a two-stage, stratified survey of households, with an original target sample size of 10,860 households. It also takes into account data from NGOs, UN agencies as well as civil authorities like hospitals and morgues. Therefore it is a far more accurate and credible result than this ludicrous number. ORB surveyed 1780 Iraqi households and then factored the number of deaths reported (22%) into the four million households in Iraq to get this farcical number. Even you can't believe that this is a credible method of gathering data? It might be ok for a political poll but not to gather accurate empirical data on something as serious a death rates. I will take the word of the UN, WHO and the New England Journal of Medicine over these guys every time.
[updated Sun Apr 20 18:03:53 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 18:03
MRM, get real. The point is, every Iraqi and American death was unnecessary from the start. The war was and remains illegal, unjustified, horrible, etc. And Mr. Harper wanted to go with these guys, all of whom evaded military service themselves.
I repeat myself but, when it comes to an election, it will not have gone unnoticed that Bush Poodles Nos. 1 and 2 (Mssrs. Blair and Howard) have been deposed. Mr. Harper is next.
[updated Sun Apr 20 18:11:37 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 18:11
MRM
I think that you need to get real. Cretien did not go to Iraq because he was not asked to. He was asked to go to Afghanistan and he did. If he was asked to to Iraq he likely would have. Instead he made a big phoney show about how he stood up tp the Americans and said no, only to find out later that it was all a lie. I have already told you that I am no fan of the Iraq war but once again I will not stand by while the loony left invents wildly farcical statistics that makes good soldiers, many of whom I know personally, look like murderers and war mongers. They are good people who are doing a tough job and they deserve better. By the way when did you serve?
[updated Sun Apr 20 18:29:12 -0400 2008]
20 Apr 18:29
I am most offended by your slurs. Can't you respond without calling me loony or wildly whatever?
It's funny how those who support the troops want them to stay there and get killed. And those who do not support them want to bring them home to safety.
[updated Mon Apr 21 15:10:44 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 15:10
MRM
You know what they say; people in glass houses should not throw stones. Here are a few little ditties that you sent to me over the past few days:
“You are like trained poodles.”
“Tory pit bulls and poodles keep shooting themselves in the foot.”
“The warmonger”
I was referring to the more generic looney left and not you specifically but if you are offended by the term then you should refrain from making these kinds of looney left statements.
Calling the troops murderers and warmongers is not supporting them. I also find it odd that someone who is so quick to claim the high ground on the issue of social justice would abandon people to the Taliban? What I find most insulting about your comments is the notion that I somehow actually want soldiers to get killed.
[updated Mon Apr 21 17:40:04 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 17:40
MRM, you are a [DELETED BY MODERATOR], as predictable as Fox News. Your support for Harper's war and occupation of a far away land that never did us any harm makes you a warmonger.
I never said you wanted Canadian soldiers killed, only that you want to keep them in harm's way. I never said abandon Afghanistan to the Taliban, only that fighting any and all Afghanis who resist foreign occupation is for fools. Genghis Khan and the full might of the Soviet army couldn't do it. We won't either.
There are so very many other peaceful alternatives, including cease fires, peace talks, prisoner exchanges, regional/United Nations peace keeping, truly free elections, reconstruction aid, reparitions, etc.
Seven years and counting. When will you understand that the current approach isn't working and will never work.
[updated Mon Apr 21 18:58:18 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 18:58
MRM
Oh my goodness! I am so offended by your slurs. Can't you respond without calling me names? Boy did you ever flip to the real you in a hurry! I knew it wouldn’t take much to get you off of your high horse.
So you never said that I wanted Canadian soldiers to get killed? Bull! What part of this statement did you not mean?
“It's funny how those who support the troops want them to stay there and get killed.”
If you are going to say it at least have the courage to stand by it.
You must have a short memory so I’ll remind you – “that far away land that never did us any harm” caused 911. You are obviously a candidate for the Taliban Jack negotiating team. You naively think that the Taliban can be negotiated with. They believe that women should be executed for going to school. They believe that anyone who does not convert to their form of Islam must be executed. They cut peoples heads off and hang them on stakes in the middle of villages for being so bad as to work with evil organizations like UNICEF and OXFAM. They blow up schools, hospitals and daycares. You cannot do prisoner exchanges with them because they don’t keep them around that long. When they do it is for ransom, not exchange.
Don’t you think that there are a lot of very smart people at the UN with a lot more experience than you that would opt for a peace keeping mission if they thought that it would work? They know that you can’t have free elections or properly reconstruct in an atmosphere of terror and that is what the Taliban counts on. When will you understand that this mission will take a generation, maybe longer but it must be seen through? Now is not the time to get weak kneed and pull out. To do so would not only be a betrayal of our soldiers that have sacrificed so much but more importantly a betrayal of the Afghan people that would result in a whole sale slaughter on a scale that would dwarf Rwanda. Why don’t you go over and ask 95% of Afghans if they think of the Taliban as “Afghanis who resist foreign occupation”. Good luck with that.
P.S. Genghis Khan wasn’t in the Soviet army.
[updated Mon Apr 21 20:18:30 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 20:18
MRM
rsharp.
Just for the sake of historical correctness here is an extract from the official Oxford History Of Afghanistan:
"The state grew weaker under Mahmud’s descendants and gave way in the middle of the 12th century to the Ghurid kingdom, which arose in Ghur, in the west central region of present-day Afghanistan. The Ghurids in turn were routed early in the 13th century by the Khwarizm Shahs, another central Asian dynasty. They were swept away in about 1220 by the Mongol conqueror Genghis Khan, who devastated the land."
[updated Tue Apr 22 08:36:28 -0400 2008]
22 Apr 08:36
(moderator)
rsharp - Nik here (the pollster) - If you continue your name calling you will loose your privileges. I believe an apology is in order to MRM. Cheers, NJN
[updated Mon Apr 21 20:33:46 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 20:33
Nik, maybe I'm not right for this site. I accuse MRM of being a "trained poodle," a totally supportable statement (he even quotes straight from the Tory playbook), and I get censored. I look elsewhere on the site, and far, far worse insults are hurled at parnel (others and me) with impunity. There is something wrong here.
Any reasonable person reviewing the commentary on this site would find in my favour.
[updated Mon Apr 21 20:53:07 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 20:53
No. If I or my ideas can be called loony, effete, wacky, wild and worse, why should I apologize for calling MRM a "trained poodle?"
If you choose to take away my privileges, so be it.
[updated Mon Apr 21 21:07:27 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 21:07
parnel
The koolaid kid is reeling because his handlers cannot defend themselves any longer...forging invoices to cover off the money laundering is pretty serious stuff for a government who ran on accountabilty. They forgot the accountability applies not only to their unethical insiders but to everyone in the Country.
Keep up the defense of good politicians.
[updated Mon Apr 21 23:06:17 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 23:06
MRM
Kool-Aid Man, you really need some new stuff. This is getting really old. maybe you should be consulting your handlers for an update on the latest left wing non-sensical drivel?
When it comes down to it who do you think that the Canadian people will punish more at the polls. The guys who might have spent to much of their own money on ads or the guys who stole 40 million dollars from them? This should be a no brainer even for you!
[updated Mon Apr 21 23:21:06 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 23:21
Whatever the $40 mililon. That was Chretien, n'est-ce pas? Since then, we've had two Liberal leaders. A slight disconnect, methnks.
If you want to talk about wasted tax dollars, let's talk about the GST cuts or military spending. Then, we would be approaching reality.
[updated Mon Apr 21 23:29:56 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 23:29
MRM
You guys were not saying that there was a "slight disconnect" when the NDP and Liberals were working overtime trying to tie the Schreiber affair to the PM? Even though it is an entirely different party. Unlike the Liberals where Dion was a cabinet minister at the time so likely in on the take. Funny how we are so selective now isn't it? Not to worry Canadians have long memories and 40 million reasons not to vote Liberal.
You may think that defending your country and its values is a waste of money but that’s OK. Others are making the sacrifice for you so that you have the right to do so. By the way aren’t you the guy who told me earlier that you supported the troops but now defence spending is a waste of money? Not sure how you square that one but it will be interesting I’m sure.
And lastly maybe you like to pay taxes but the rest of are just fine with any tax cut, even when it is the GST.
[updated Mon Apr 21 23:49:50 -0400 2008]
21 Apr 23:49
So you accuse Mr. Dion on being "in on the take," without a shred of evidence. You equate the war in Afghanistan with "defending our country." You are fine with regressive taxation, like the GST.
Your words speak for themselves.
[updated Wed Apr 23 15:08:56 -0400 2008]
23 Apr 15:08
MRM
Yes my words do speak for themselves. That’s what they were intended to do? Less taxation is not regressive. It is progressive. The evidence against Dion is two fold. First, his friends who benefited from Adscam are now a little richer and still supporting him and second he has never condemned them nor has he refused to accept their help so he is at the very least, guilty by complicity.
[updated Wed Apr 23 18:51:29 -0400 2008]
23 Apr 18:51
No. Progressive taxation means those who can afford to pay, pay more, pay more. The GST is inherently regressive. Everyone pays the same, rich or poor.
Name me a single Dion "friend" who has profited from "Adscam." Name one.
If you can't, forever hold yous peace.
[updated Wed Apr 23 20:17:33 -0400 2008]
23 Apr 20:17
parnel
Trying to drag Dion into the morass of Adscam is pretty damn silly but then tory supporters are very anxious to cover up money laundering schemes. This cartoon is a perfect pitch on their activities.
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/aislin/index.html?pubdate=4%2f24%2f2008
Further their defense of the GST cut is really not a defense. If they looked around and ever wondered why Europe for the most part has better infrastructures than we do and better organized systems you could look to VAT. It has been around for decades and works very well to keep taxation down and governments well funded mostly through VAT to keep infrastructure projects current. The income tax is used to run the Country's social programs and police/military etc.
Concurrently the US has a decrepit infrastructure program because they have no funding in place such a VAT. Consumption taxes pay for those upgrades. But I digress, Flaherty is such a bumbling idiot there is no logic to anything he does.
Stories in several papers today including Western ones is that we are potentially going to sink into deficit territory because our growth is falling below 1.7% which is basically break even for government revenues. Of course there are denials all around just as there were whne the tories lost Ontario and we were subsequently presented with a $5 Billion deficit.
[updated Thu Apr 24 00:39:30 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 00:39
parnel
The Cartoon refferred to is in the Montreal Gazette for Thursday. It is Aislin's editorial cartoon
[updated Thu Apr 24 00:41:10 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 00:41
MRM
Well Parnel the real cartoon is Dion and the LPC. While you may have been to Europe it is obvious to me that you have never lived there nor paid taxes there because you have no idea about their taxation system. Their personal income tax rate is much higher than ours. While the infrastructure is in good shape at tourist sites it is in far worse shape than ours elsewhere. But of course as just a visitor you would have no way of knowing that.
As for the GST cut at least rsharp agrees with me!
[updated Thu Apr 24 08:33:06 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 08:33
MRM
So since the the GST is "inherently regressive" as you put it you will agree that cutting it is a good thing I guess?
If you want to see who Dion's Adscam friends are just read the Gomery Report then look up who is still donating our ill gotten tax dollars to the LPC.
[updated Thu Apr 24 08:23:26 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 08:23
Well, I most certainly would have cut income taxes for the poor before cutting the GST. What amazes me is the percentage of tax collections from individuals vs. corporations. I don't have the figures in front of me but I think corporations now pay about a third of what they used too, and you and I make up the difference.
It's a global thing, so maybe competitiveness is the boogy bear driving corporate rates down. And, of course, we need to keep all those loopholes for the rich or they'll cut out for the Bahamas. Wait, they already have.
[updated Thu Apr 24 16:49:11 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 16:49
MRM
The poor already pay no federal income taxes. All they pay is GST on purchases so cutting it is the only way that the feds have to reduce their taxes. As for the rise in the amount of individual taxes raised vs corporate taxes raised since 1953, you forgot one important fact. The population of Canada has more than doubled since then (14 million to 34 million)and as a result so have individual tax collections. You seem to think that all corporations are bad guys. If they all did leave this country would be in serious financial trouble and we would not have the money pay for the social programs you covet so much.
[updated Thu Apr 24 20:42:40 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 20:42
MRM, please, think about what you write. The number of corporations in Canada has increased in tandem with the number of Canadians. We are in a race for the bottom until businesses pay no taxes or, even, we pay them to come or stay here.
I'm not saying all corporations are bad. I'm saying they should pull their weight. If they don't. we should pull the plug. That's all.
[updated Thu Apr 24 21:03:02 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 21:03
MRM
I do think about what I write. Thankfully those of your political stripe will never run this country. You would tax corporations out of the country and then there would be no jobs or corporations to pay for your social programs. You should stop and think about what you are writing. When you "pull the plug" on a corporation you also "pull the plug" on all those that they employ and their families that depend on their incomes.
[updated Thu Apr 24 21:13:00 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 21:13
Ottawa lost 1600 jobs today, due to the closing of a Dell and another company's call centre. Probably to India or Pakistan. The high Canadian dollar is the numero uno culprit.
The Canadian dollar is riding high due to the oil sands, potash, lumber, uranium, etc. It sure isn't our manufacturing sector, or anything else that has to do with business ingenuity. Like the Saudis, we happen to be blessed with a bunch of stuff in the ground that others covet. .
My point is simple. We Canadians need to get a fair shake on this bounty. Norway does it. Venezuela too. Why are we such suckers?
[updated Thu Apr 24 21:52:05 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 21:52
MRM
What has any of your last post got to do with taxing corporations or are you just talking about taxing the oil sector? If you are then we already do so I am not sure what point you are trying to make?
[updated Thu Apr 24 22:00:33 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 22:00
In 1953, Canadian corporations and individuals payed almost exactly the same to federal coffers. By 1975, individuals we're paying more than twice as much as corporations ($13B vs. $6B). By 2006, individuals paid well over three times as much ($107B vs. $33B). And that doesn't count another $50B in consumption taxes and $40B in social security (C/QPP, EI).
By the way, corporate taxes are way lower in the EU, but their value added taxes are way, way higher.
If corporations in Canada served us well, instead of selling us out, I might be more amenable. As I see it, these numbers are outrageous.
[updated Thu Apr 24 18:48:18 -0400 2008]
24 Apr 18:48
MRM
I have decided that you are right. We should triple corporate taxes. Then we will all be out of work can take advantage of our exellent welfare system. At least until the money runs out?
[updated Mon Apr 28 08:56:11 -0400 2008]
28 Apr 08:56
MRM, do you have to ridicule, name-call or otherwise insult me in every reply? Do you always have to have the last word? Are you not capable of admitting mistakes and why do you always attack your detractors with such constant malice?
[updated Mon Apr 28 18:39:36 -0400 2008]
28 Apr 18:39
MRM
Have you read some of your posts? Oops, there I go getting the last word in again. Sorry, I goofed. Hey, see I can admit it when I make a mistake.
[updated Wed Apr 30 00:18:59 -0400 2008]
30 Apr 00:18
MRM
There you go again, gloating over a tie. The best they can hope to achieve with Dion at the helm, even with media on their side.
[updated Sun Apr 13 08:06:29 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 08:06
parnel
I'm not gloating over a tie..........I'm gloating over the fact that Harper has tired every form of bribery and can't grow in the polls against a supposedly weak opponent. I like to gloat over that fact;it will make the next election that much more fun.
[updated Sun Apr 13 10:55:45 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 10:55
parnel
I see Nick's latest Ontario provincial poll has the provincial liberals at 45% and the tories at 30%. This is trending very similar to federal voting intentions in the province and should be good news for Dion and Co. They are potentially in "sweep" territory.
So, if the Liberals win say 90 seats in Ontario (they won 99 under Chretien) that would almost certainly guarantee them winning the federal election and they could come close to, or win, a majority.
Possible seat distribution
90 seats in Ontario
24 seats in Quebec
22 seats in the Maritimes
25 seats in the ROC
possible total seats
161 seats total for the Liberals
80 seats or so for the Tories
35 seats for the bloc
12 seats for the greens
20 seats for the NDP
Guess what folks.........we'll then have good sound government back.
[updated Tue Apr 15 04:36:59 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 04:36
parnel
Here's another federal poll for you to consider:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080415.wpoll15/BNStory/National/home
Nick's poll has read the mood very well and this poll reconfirms what I am saying in that Harper is going down down down.The G&M poll is still somewhat inaccurate but it shows the trend heading in the right direction.
[updated Tue Apr 15 06:42:18 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 06:42
MRM
What orifice did you pull these seat numbers out of? The greens will not 12 seats. Maybe two? The Liberals will not win 25 seats in Western Canada; they will locked out except for few in MB and Vancouver. They may win 8 in Quebec and 90 seats in ON is living in dreamland! Maybe you should back off of the Kool Aid a little?
[updated Tue Apr 15 08:06:19 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 08:06
parnel
I'll stack my expertise up against yours anyday!!!
[updated Tue Apr 15 08:39:14 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 08:39
MRM
OK then on what facts do you base your "expertise" on?
[updated Tue Apr 15 14:52:17 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 14:52
MRM
Wasn't it you who said that the only polls that count are the ones on election day? Funny how you are quick to quote the ones that say what you want and criticize the ones that don't?
[updated Tue Apr 15 08:11:13 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 08:11
parnel
I do believe that but thought you need to see a poll that you wouldn't post here.
[updated Tue Apr 15 08:51:17 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 08:51
MRM
Thanks for thinking of me.
[updated Tue Apr 15 14:53:00 -0400 2008]
15 Apr 14:53
parnel
Here's more "good" government from the sorry Tories:
"Unfortunately, because of the tactics of the Conservative Party, the work of many House committees has ground to a halt. Examples of Conservative interference are piling up by the day:
The House Environment Committee has been incapacitated since February 27 while the Conservative Government prevents proper discussion of the Climate Change Accountability Act. The Conservative filibuster has consumed more than 20 hours of committee time.
The House Justice Committee has come to a standstill because the Conservative Chair, Art Hangar, persists in walking out of his own meetings when the proceedings don’t suit him – anything to avoid discussing the Cadman Affair.
The Conservatives have filibustered the Procedure and House Affairs Committee for more than 18 hours to prevent discussions on Conservative Party spending irregularities in the last election. Fortunately, as we have seen in the news recently, the RCMP and Elections Canada are not tolerating the Conservative stall-tactics
[updated Thu Apr 17 16:31:18 -0400 2008]
17 Apr 16:31
MRM
So who's opinion are you quoting now?
[updated Thu Apr 17 22:35:39 -0400 2008]
17 Apr 22:35
Tom Good
What the polls say and what the electors do in the next election, I believe, is still up for grabs. At the moment it does not bode well for a majority. I wonder if all these months of election fever will contribute to elector fatigue and low turn out.
This poll is reflecting the moves of the "swing" voter who will be the kingmaker in the next election. Harper has to try to appeal to the Liberal "swinger" and at the moment, the poll says he has not been too successful. On the other hand, Layton has to hold his "swingers" in the NDP fold and the poll says he has not been too successful either.
In Quebec, neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals are trusted to rule. Duceppe will profit from the division and the Bloc will continue to represent that province. It will be interesting to see if goodies flow to Quebec as they did last year when it appeared an election was imminent---something will likely happen to try to "break" that stagnation of voter numbers.
The West is an interesting prediction with the Conservatives showing strength but that also may be a weakness if the Conservatives are perceived as primarily as a party of western strength. The west is, more often than not, out of step with the rest of the country. The way Ontario goes, so goes the rest of the country.
The "losers" in this poll are the NDP and the Greens and we see the beginnings of strategic voting come the election. Given no loose lips or bad stumbles on either side, the election will be October 19, 2009
[updated Fri Apr 11 04:06:12 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 04:06
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
broughad
It seems the battle lines are being drawn. Atlantic Canada and Ontario are firmly with the Liberals, while the Conservatives keep a stranglehold on the West, and Quebec is up for grabs. Support for the NDP is evaporating everywhere and it looks like many voters have decided to end their flirtation with the Greens.
Flaherty's interference in Ontario's budget has driven voters in that province firmly behind its Liberal government, thus benefitting federal Liberals. The Lukiwski affair has caused Conservative support in the West to retrench, mainly due to the shrill and morally superior reaction of the opposition, particularly the NDP.
If there were an election now, with their superior machine, the Conservatives would probably eke out another minority. If the Conservatives have learned anything from this, it's that it doesn't pay to bash the biggest province in the country.
[updated Fri Apr 11 07:56:34 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 07:56
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bernie
Frankly, I was surprised by these numbers. Some of the polls were showing Harper in the lead by 10%, even a point or two in Ontario The attacks on McGuinty obviously had an effect especially coming from Fraherty. He did such a bad job of handling Ontario's finances during the Harris regime. McGuinty may not have an endearing personality but he is fairly competent and is not too upsetting to Ontarians. So the attacks are unwarranted and they haven't forgotten Harris and Flaherty.
It's only during election time do un-affiliated voters get serious and then one important issue can make or break the close tie we have now.
Harper is still not being honest and transparent, his prime election promises. Trying to insert an immigration bill into the budget is a trick taken from the Republican playbook. Just look at how often the Republicans have unpassable bills rolled into larger one that do have greater chance of passing. IMO every bill should stand on its own and voted on separately.
Timing is everything. There are many "swingers" out there. And any given news item or story they can change their vote overnight.
Harper owes his election to Zaccardelli. This doesn't appear to resonate in the West but the people I know in Toronto are outraged by this. Police interference in the political process smacks of military interference in banana republics. It must not be tolerated. To release a report of charges re Goodale in the middle of a campaign and with not one shred or evidence. The first report had no names but Zaccardelli insisted and released it with Goodale's name. Martin's polls dropped 16 points overnight. That is what won the election for Harper. Personally I'm not blaming the Conservatives for this, the blame is entirely on Zaccardelli as far as I can determine. This has resonance on Ontario and may contribute to a rising Liberal vote.
Tom Good has an good take these polls and I can't say anything much different from what he has already said.
[updated Fri Apr 11 08:17:23 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 08:17
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
It sure looks like the Libs are benefiting from a decline in the NDP support in Ontario. Not surprising given the Libs are the only ones that can stop the Conservatives and short of an election the NDP supporters have no risk in a poll saying they support the Libs.
While national polls are great I believe the next election will be decided on a riding by riding basis.
Lib support continues to be strong in the GTA and the Martimes. However, outside these two areas their support is soft.
To demonstrate my point. In previous polls the Libs are showing support at 20% in Quebec. However, when you leave Montreal and move into the regions their support is 3rd or 4th. That accounts for 50 of the 75 seats in Quebec.
There is little support for the Dion Libs in the Prairies. There probably is support for the Libs in Vancouver but in the rest of B.C. it's primarily a battle between the Cons and the NDP.
So the Libs can take some consoliation that there vote is not collapsing under the Dion leadership but what it does is clearly demonstrate the Lib brand is still strong in the GTA and Maritimes.
However, in the next election there will only be two choices for PM of Canada. Canadians will need to make a decision as to who they want to lead this country in the future. Do they want a leader who has proven he can keep campaign promises, is decisive and makes decisions on behalf of the country.
Or, do they want an untested leader of the Official Opposition who has not demonstrated he has the requisite leadership abilities. A leader and party who has abstained or flip flopped on the important issues of the day and who people in his own party question his ability to lead.
Obviously if the Cons are to retain government let alone get a majority there will need to be movement in Quebec and Ontario. The former is possible but the latter is still a big question mark.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:18:18 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 10:18
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
These numbers point to another minority government which will likely be Conservative as long as Dion is leader of the Liberals. If Conservative they wil be in power for at least 2 to 3 years as the opposition would be unlikely to trigger another election before then.
Why do we see very wide differences in polling results from companies that consider themselves professionall polling organizations? Who do we believe? Ten and twelve percent differences are hard to explain.
[updated Fri Apr 11 10:52:36 -0400 2008]
11 Apr 10:52
57 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Suggestion. Let's talk about the next election. When. Why. And who will win!
[updated Sun Apr 13 17:31:05 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 17:31
59 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
I think another poll this coming week would do further damage to the secrecy prone Tories. The Afghan torture story is going to get sme play and will mostcertainly make the Tories look like liars once again on their "accountability" promises and the fact it does appear that the government has possibly covered up another scandal.
There are also rumours that the so called Finance minister may back off his changes to the Income trust fiasco. it will be too little too late for that major mistake and lie to get corrected.
[updated Sun Apr 13 22:55:42 -0400 2008]
13 Apr 22:55
82 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
With the recently resurfaced In and Out scandal dogging the Conservatives and new charges against Liberals from activities around Adscam, one would think that both major parties would be hurting somewhat. Mind you both of these hit the headlines after the polling period so perhaps we'll see the fallout of these next iteration. It is also highly possible that the electorate is still in a state of disconnect. I watch and wonder.
[updated Wed Apr 23 11:48:40 -0400 2008]
23 Apr 11:48
75 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
parnel
Here's some more good news that seems to follow Nick's poll of two weeks ago.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/418966
Gloomy outlook hurting Tories: Poll
Apr 27, 2008 03:33 PM
THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA–A new poll suggests economic fears and a lack of optimism are problems for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives.
Fifty-six per cent of respondents to The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey said they were worried about a recession, and 55 per cent said they didn't feel Harper offered much optimism or inspiration.
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[updated Sun Apr 27 17:58:08 -0400 2008]
27 Apr 17:58
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