Federal Tories and Grits Tied - Are NDP voters in Ontario strategically parking with the Grits? (Nanos Poll completed April 9)

This confirms my beliefs that the politics played by Harper and his gang of incompentents are not resonating with Canadians. Many of them are withholding support for Dion due to his negative press.

I also believe that Flaherty's attacks on the Ontario government have backfired in the polls based on the Liberal party growth there and the gains do come from disaffected NDP voters as suggested by Nick. The fact conservative voter intentions are stagnant is telling.

The Conservative "halo" effect out west,particularly in BC, is a result of the close by election in BC which is not reflective of how people will vote in another election when major issues are on the table. The Sask. riding could go either way in the next election.

All in all a good poll for the Liberals and must be disappointing for Harper who is probably preparing his next series of lies in his attack ads.

The green party may also be losing "parked" votes back to the Liberals. .

[updated Fri Apr 11 01:54:34 EDT 2008]

What the polls say and what the electors do in the next election, I believe, is still up for grabs. At the moment it does not bode well for a majority. I wonder if all these months of election fever will contribute to elector fatigue and low turn out.

This poll is reflecting the moves of the "swing" voter who will be the kingmaker in the next election. Harper has to try to appeal to the Liberal "swinger" and at the moment, the poll says he has not been too successful. On the other hand, Layton has to hold his "swingers" in the NDP fold and the poll says he has not been too successful either.

In Quebec, neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals are trusted to rule. Duceppe will profit from the division and the Bloc will continue to represent that province. It will be interesting to see if goodies flow to Quebec as they did last year when it appeared an election was imminent---something will likely happen to try to "break" that stagnation of voter numbers.

The West is an interesting prediction with the Conservatives showing strength but that also may be a weakness if the Conservatives are perceived as primarily as a party of western strength. The west is, more often than not, out of step with the rest of the country. The way Ontario goes, so goes the rest of the country.

The "losers" in this poll are the NDP and the Greens and we see the beginnings of strategic voting come the election. Given no loose lips or bad stumbles on either side, the election will be October 19, 2009

[updated Fri Apr 11 04:06:12 EDT 2008]

It seems the battle lines are being drawn. Atlantic Canada and Ontario are firmly with the Liberals, while the Conservatives keep a stranglehold on the West, and Quebec is up for grabs. Support for the NDP is evaporating everywhere and it looks like many voters have decided to end their flirtation with the Greens.

Flaherty's interference in Ontario's budget has driven voters in that province firmly behind its Liberal government, thus benefitting federal Liberals. The Lukiwski affair has caused Conservative support in the West to retrench, mainly due to the shrill and morally superior reaction of the opposition, particularly the NDP.

If there were an election now, with their superior machine, the Conservatives would probably eke out another minority. If the Conservatives have learned anything from this, it's that it doesn't pay to bash the biggest province in the country.

[updated Fri Apr 11 07:56:34 EDT 2008]

Frankly, I was surprised by these numbers. Some of the polls were showing Harper in the lead by 10%, even a point or two in Ontario The attacks on McGuinty obviously had an effect especially coming from Fraherty. He did such a bad job of handling Ontario's finances during the Harris regime. McGuinty may not have an endearing personality but he is fairly competent and is not too upsetting to Ontarians. So the attacks are unwarranted and they haven't forgotten Harris and Flaherty.
It's only during election time do un-affiliated voters get serious and then one important issue can make or break the close tie we have now.
Harper is still not being honest and transparent, his prime election promises. Trying to insert an immigration bill into the budget is a trick taken from the Republican playbook. Just look at how often the Republicans have unpassable bills rolled into larger one that do have greater chance of passing. IMO every bill should stand on its own and voted on separately.
Timing is everything. There are many "swingers" out there. And any given news item or story they can change their vote overnight.
Harper owes his election to Zaccardelli. This doesn't appear to resonate in the West but the people I know in Toronto are outraged by this. Police interference in the political process smacks of military interference in banana republics. It must not be tolerated. To release a report of charges re Goodale in the middle of a campaign and with not one shred or evidence. The first report had no names but Zaccardelli insisted and released it with Goodale's name. Martin's polls dropped 16 points overnight. That is what won the election for Harper. Personally I'm not blaming the Conservatives for this, the blame is entirely on Zaccardelli as far as I can determine. This has resonance on Ontario and may contribute to a rising Liberal vote.

Tom Good has an good take these polls and I can't say anything much different from what he has already said.

[updated Fri Apr 11 08:17:23 EDT 2008]

It sure looks like the Libs are benefiting from a decline in the NDP support in Ontario. Not surprising given the Libs are the only ones that can stop the Conservatives and short of an election the NDP supporters have no risk in a poll saying they support the Libs.

While national polls are great I believe the next election will be decided on a riding by riding basis.

Lib support continues to be strong in the GTA and the Martimes. However, outside these two areas their support is soft.

To demonstrate my point. In previous polls the Libs are showing support at 20% in Quebec. However, when you leave Montreal and move into the regions their support is 3rd or 4th. That accounts for 50 of the 75 seats in Quebec.

There is little support for the Dion Libs in the Prairies. There probably is support for the Libs in Vancouver but in the rest of B.C. it's primarily a battle between the Cons and the NDP.

So the Libs can take some consoliation that there vote is not collapsing under the Dion leadership but what it does is clearly demonstrate the Lib brand is still strong in the GTA and Maritimes.

However, in the next election there will only be two choices for PM of Canada. Canadians will need to make a decision as to who they want to lead this country in the future. Do they want a leader who has proven he can keep campaign promises, is decisive and makes decisions on behalf of the country.

Or, do they want an untested leader of the Official Opposition who has not demonstrated he has the requisite leadership abilities. A leader and party who has abstained or flip flopped on the important issues of the day and who people in his own party question his ability to lead.

Obviously if the Cons are to retain government let alone get a majority there will need to be movement in Quebec and Ontario. The former is possible but the latter is still a big question mark.

[updated Fri Apr 11 10:18:18 EDT 2008]

These numbers point to another minority government which will likely be Conservative as long as Dion is leader of the Liberals. If Conservative they wil be in power for at least 2 to 3 years as the opposition would be unlikely to trigger another election before then.

Why do we see very wide differences in polling results from companies that consider themselves professionall polling organizations? Who do we believe? Ten and twelve percent differences are hard to explain.

[updated Fri Apr 11 10:52:36 EDT 2008]

Suggestion. Let's talk about the next election. When. Why. And who will win!

[updated Sun Apr 13 17:31:05 EDT 2008]

I think another poll this coming week would do further damage to the secrecy prone Tories. The Afghan torture story is going to get sme play and will mostcertainly make the Tories look like liars once again on their "accountability" promises and the fact it does appear that the government has possibly covered up another scandal.

There are also rumours that the so called Finance minister may back off his changes to the Income trust fiasco. it will be too little too late for that major mistake and lie to get corrected.

[updated Sun Apr 13 22:55:42 EDT 2008]

With the recently resurfaced In and Out scandal dogging the Conservatives and new charges against Liberals from activities around Adscam, one would think that both major parties would be hurting somewhat. Mind you both of these hit the headlines after the polling period so perhaps we'll see the fallout of these next iteration. It is also highly possible that the electorate is still in a state of disconnect. I watch and wonder.

[updated Wed Apr 23 11:48:40 EDT 2008]

Here's some more good news that seems to follow Nick's poll of two weeks ago.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/418966
Gloomy outlook hurting Tories: Poll
Apr 27, 2008 03:33 PM
THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA–A new poll suggests economic fears and a lack of optimism are problems for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives.

Fifty-six per cent of respondents to The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey said they were worried about a recession, and 55 per cent said they didn't feel Harper offered much optimism or inspiration.

continues.......................

[updated Sun Apr 27 17:58:08 EDT 2008]