What will be the impact of the Cadman affair? (Video Blog Post)

I think the Liberals are doing a great job at undercutting the Tory brand of accountability and ethical government. The Tories are self immolating and I think the major reason for that is Harper's overly tight control of the government apparatus.

[updated Sun Mar 09 17:04:56 EDT 2008]

You raise two separate issues on the Cadman affair:

How will this impact the degree of trust in Stephen Harper?

Was any criminality involved that might lead the RCMP to act?

On the second issue first, I would be very surprised to see the RCMP even seriously investigate, let alone lay charges. In the 2000 Jim Hart affair, there was even more clear evidence of a financial inducement, but police declined to lay charges, presumably because it was too difficult to show the link between the money and Mr. Hart's actions. In the Cadman affair, the link is even more nebulous.

But on the first issue, Harper's reputation for trust may indeed be damaged. His story, that the only offer to Cadman was to help him run as a Conservative in the next election is simply not credible, given that it was then known Cadman was terminally ill. The tape suggests Mr. Cadman's personal finances were the issue -- not campaign expenses. Harper and James Moore have ducked virtually all the questions from the Liberals, and the more that comes out, the more Harper's story unravels. Harper's credibility will take a big hit.

[updated Sun Mar 09 17:29:29 EDT 2008]

I find the entire story almost beyond belief. I do not believe that a $1 million insurance policy is on the marketplace for terminally ill people. The possible kernel of truth that I have read since then is that the CPC may have promised Cadman that he'd have a safe riding to run from if he voted to trigger an election so he wouldn't lose the insurance benefits that go with being a sitting MP. This is hardly the same as offering a bribe with a value of $1 million.

[updated Sun Mar 09 17:36:05 EDT 2008]

From a legal viewpoint, it will come down to the words of Ms Cadman, Jodi Cadman & wife, and Tom (author of the book in question, Like a Rock the Chuck Cadman story) against Harpers word and the words of the Conservative party. Unless the police can find real evidence other than 2nd hand testimony, unethical bribery charges won't stick.

What's going for the Conservatives:
- no paper trail. (Ms. Cadman said the Conservative offer on paper was taken with them)
- Ms. Cadman is running as a Conservative in the next federal election.
( partial control of media spin with Canwest media and the CTV.
- Expert legal help. Warren Kinsella has never lost a case.
- time. The longer time passes before the next election, the better chance they have of putting it behind them.
- offer is a life insurance policy (what corp would offer such a policy? Some will, but public perception is that won't if not all insurance corps, won't)

What's going for the Liberals:

- Harper is on tape saying financial considerations were offered for Cadmans vote to bring the Liberal government down by party officials. The interview was given to Tom who was known as a National post journalist (Can West media) which is worth noting.
- Chuck Cadman was too sick to think about running again and was on record as stating he wouldn't run again in April, a solid month before the vote. This makes it hard to justify offering financial assistance to fight an election, as Conservatives later proposed.
- Tom Flannagan admitted to offering Chuck Cadman "something" with Doug Finley in his own book on the rise of the Conseravtives to power.
- 3 solid witnesses stated Chuck Cadman was offered a million dollar life insurance policy for bringing down the Martin government. We know what the guilty always say. "I'm innocent". This makes blanket denials of any wrong doing or even having had negotiations with Cadman by Conserative MP's such as James Moore look bad. Cadman is on record as stating he had offers from the Conservatives.
- Harper is on record with having lied in the past. Eg. to note: the elected Conservative to run in Kelowna was booted out to make room for Stockwell Day. Harper denied this, but was sued for $50,000 and lost in court. An elections financing campaign scandal could also become ugly for the Conservatives over time.
- Garth Turner sums up the arguement against the Cons best: http://www.garth.ca/weblog/2008/02/

Impact? between 2 to 5% lost nationally for the Conservatives over this one. Loss of support nationally will fall less as time goes on. As for whether or not any insurance company would put up a million dollar write off to secure market access for insurance companies into Canada in the area of health care for example, the best place to look would be Harpers NCC. If there is truth to Chucks words, the most likely insurance complany would be this one: http://www.thewealthadvisory.com/life_insurance_services.html

[updated Sun Mar 09 18:03:27 EDT 2008]

The Cadman affair, not just the alleged million dollar bribe, is a good example of crass party politics. Before Cadman ran as an independent, the indifference of the Conservative party officialdom was disgusting in the way it allowed the hyjacking of Cadman's Conservative renomination meeting by an opportunistic, organized ethnic group. I believe all British Columbians, of all political persuasions, delighted in Cadman's subsequent political win as an independent in his riding. Cadman's crusade to reform the laws around the circumstances of his son's death should be remembered.

Sometimes attack is the best defence and that, in my opinion, is exactly what Harper is doing. There is something to hide and it is a little difficult, if not mighty dangerous, to hide what is already on tape held by Cadman's biographer. Harper HAS TO KNOW who the two well heeled Conservatives were who approached Cadman for his critical vote. Who are they? Yes, Harper has to come clean as he proclaims often, loudly and clearly that his party walks the higher road than those terrible Liberals. But, then, this is politics and anything goes in Canada as long as you do not get caught. Such ethics, morals and all the rest of it.

Will Harper survive this? Yes, he will but a little bruised, if politicians get bruised. Harper will have personally added this item to the cumulative error bag that all parties seem to accumulate along the way.

Will Dion profit from this dust-up? In the short term, yes, as he dearly needs some pluses for his side. Dion, though, is unable to take a principled stand, for example the recent budget, and he is waiting for those opportunistic POLITICAL openings to come before the party looks for his replacement.

Nik, I believe your leader "trust" numbers convey an incorrect picture. I believe the table should read "trust to lead" then I would generally agree.

[updated Sun Mar 09 18:20:35 EDT 2008]

I would suggest that this issue is not raising concerns with the vast majority of ordinary Canadians who are busy raising their families and trying to pay the bills. However, I do concede that it fires the imagination of we who follow politics closely.

This all started with the supposed offer of a $1 million life insurance policy to a man who had terminal cancer. It is ridiculous to say the least. Harper is not responsible for what Cadman may or may not have told his wife.

The tape of Mr. Harper`s interview with the author of the book is somewhat more questionable. Why did he not reject the suggestion of the $1million life insurance policy when it was mentioned. Who knows. However, Cadman`s wife did raise it with Harper a couple of years ago and she apparently accepted his explanation. Cadman was under significant pressure from a variety of sources about his vote. However, he did say in taped interviews the Conservatives offered to help him out financially in his next campaign should he choose to run for the Conservatives.

The RCMP will not find any basis to lay charges. There were only three people in the room and one of them has since past away. Without concrete evidence the charges will never stand up in a court of law.

Everybody keeps asking for a clearer explanation. It doesn`t matter what Harper says he cannot prove what he says is the truth. Those that mistrust and even hate Harper will never be satisfied. So he elects not to get into the discussion.

What people should be asking themselves is what is the alternative. A weak leader of the Liberal party who cannot communicate effectively with the majority of citizens, someone who has no experience at leading a major political party, has no economic experience and who is afraid to face the electorate because he knows he can`t win.

Canadians should ask themselves what is the alternative. It sure ain`t Mr. Dion!

[updated Sun Mar 09 18:43:06 EDT 2008]

I think the RCMP will investigate but I don't think they will take any further action. There doesn't seem to be any proof that would stand up in court. Therefore they will drop it.

The amount of political damage done will depend on how successful the Liberals can spin it. If they do the same job the Conservatives did on the Liberals for less offences then they can do serious harm. It won't matter to die-hard conservatives or liberals. They won't change for anything. It's the non-committed voters who will be affected. There obviously be some damage done to Harper. How much depends on the Liberals selling job.

Since I am not impressed by either party,it's not a big deal for me. It's what all parties have been doing all along. Morally or ethically it was wrong. Legally as I see it only financial offers matter. The other situations that others mention has no bearing in law, even promises of a cabinet post is allowed.The law speciffically says money transfer is the only consideration. Of course I don't believe that it should be that way I'm more interested in morals or ethics. The laws are ,made by humans who are often immoral and unethical themselves. So the laws often are "an ass"

Another aspect that bothers me is that some belive it's Ok if it's not provable. That's stupid to me. If one waits to get proof of averything then will reach old age with very little wisdom of knowlegde, I believe that 80% of what what knowlwdge we have is obtained without proof.
I believe Cadman was offered money. Although acknowledging that Harper has a tight rein on everything that happens in his party, I was ready to give Harper the benefit of the doubt. Since he has been caught on tape saying that there were financial consideations then that is proof enough that it occurred whether Harper knew it or not. The fact that Flannagan was involved is further evidence that something untoward happened. That's his modus operandi. Saying that the three people involved dneied it is sufficient to deny it happened is stupid. What would you expect them to say especially Falagan and Findley
Those who follow politicas closely know what they are like. And what would you expect Cadman to say in public. After all he was a member of the Conservatives, who by happenstace, was Indepentent at the time. He wasn't so concerned about himself but was about his family after his death. His wife is a Consevarive and saying too much would jeopardize her political and financial future. Mr. Cadman's wife and daughter appear as honest and ewthical as he was and told the truth. So there is no question in my mind. I'm convinced that his family was offered a good deal of money. just to get his vote.Having said that I must say I don't put a great deal of importance to it. It's what politicians do and is minor compared to the other significant damages they do to Canadians, expecially this present government.
This episode will inflict some damage but not near as much as others things Harper has doen and is doing that should get everybody upset and scream out in opposition. The Liberals and the NDP are not doing a good job of telling Canadians in strong enough language how bad this government really is and how much worse they would be if they ever got a majority.

[updated Mon Mar 10 09:58:41 EDT 2008]

Does the Cadman have legs? Taken in isolation, it probably wouldn't have. In concert with Chalk River, the Ottawa Civic Election affair, Naftagate, Flaherty's grudge fued with Ontario and so on, it's got more legs than a Millipede.

Mr. Harper's government, after a good start for the first nine months or so, has started floundering badly, and is bleeding to death by a thousand cuts.
I have seen a slow erosion of trust, which not only kept the Cons out of majority country but has seen a recent progressive drop in the polls. The only thing preventing this from turning into a free fall is the Liberal Party of Canada's inexplicable decision to enter into a defacto coalition with the CPC, and to do so in a fashion which highlights the Liberals divisions and ineffective leadership..

[updated Mon Mar 10 10:25:44 EDT 2008]

The brand of trust Nik refers to does not and never did exsist. The Conservative party ran the last party on a lack of trust in the Liberal party. The next election will also feature US style attack ads as the main source of information. The party with the best attack ads will win the next election and those of us who want solid ideas will lose.

In closing: please take note how quick these scandals are adding up.

[updated Mon Mar 10 18:50:09 EDT 2008]

Does anyone suppose that the whole chuck Cadman story line could change drastically if and when Paul Martin's involvement is unveiled ??? DJP

[updated Mon Mar 10 19:26:01 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik

I have no doubt the RCMP are already investigating this affaire, they really do not have a choice. There are many questions but few plausible answers, if they decided not to investigate. The credibility of the Federal force and, specifically, Commissioner Elliotts’ would come under suspicion.
I do not understand S. Harpers refusal to explain, clearly, what he meant by his comments “financial considerations” Persisting in this myth that Mr. Cadman would run in the next federal election simply cannot be believed. If you remember it was common knowledge that he had difficulty even getting to Ottawa for the vote. This is very serious and should not be treated lightly. This is “the highest office in the land” it should be above suspicion and the Prime Minister is not serving the people he represents by refusing to explain himself.
As for the outcome, it is more difficult to predict because of the problems within the Liberal party. Of course the other consideration are the polls, if we go through an election and come back with the same results, it would guarantee another two and maybe three years of right wing governance.

The conservatives Bragg they hold the high road and own all the cards on the accountibility file; accountability should not be confused with infalability. Everybody makes mistakes; you investigate it, put measures in place to prevent it happening again and move on. This is what Stephen Harper should do with this Cadman affaire, admit mistakes were made and move on.
Paul Martin called a public inquiry into his own party because he promised he would bring changes to this institution, by shedding light on all its workings. The opposing parties are still making political hay out of it. Yet Stephen Harper won’t even give a logical explanation to his own words on tape.

Who do you think has been more accountable to the Canadian people?

[updated Tue Mar 11 20:15:01 EDT 2008]

Seems the she said, he said scandal surrounding Chuck Cadman has become the red herring of the century.

If the thought of some insurance underwriter giving a life insurance policy to a man with terminal cancer sounds ridiculous it probably is.

And all the statements attributed in the book, which I have read, are third party hearsay statements that would never stand up in court, or anywhere else for that matter.

Even the author in an interview couldn’t even corroborate the allegations other than to say that is what Mrs. Cadman told him and she wasn’t in the room either. No doubt the conservatives would offer to help Cadman with an election since his riding association was broke and unable to finance a campaign.

All other political party’s including the Liberals bolster riding associations this way. And according to the author, nobody except his legislative assistant Dan Wallace was in the room with Cadman and the representatives from the conservatives so any information flowing from that is mere speculation, or a fabrication since Wallace refuses to say what was said.

According to the author he deferred to Dona as to what was said. If anyone knows a first-hand account, instead of the heresy of others, it would be Dan Wallace and no other since Mr. Cadman is deceased.

As to Mrs. Cadman running for the conservatives, good luck with that.

Seems this whole scandal is designed to pump up book sales for the author and increase the dividend paid to the Cadman family for their unsubstantiated statements in the book.
What I find most amusing is how the media ran with the story before getting all the facts. Now that down-right irresponsible journalism.

Shameful.

[updated Wed Mar 12 17:03:19 EDT 2008]