Election fraught with risks - Nanos Ballot - Lib 33, Con 31, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8

Well, Nik, I believe I have an equally reliable predictor for the Canadian political scene. Unfortunately, one chicken sacrificed itself for the greater good and the entrails foretold the future amid the blood and the stink. Nothing will change for the first part of the year. Stephen will get his way and Stephane will "bow to his caucus"-----Obviously, the two great political leaders are only doing this for the greater good of Canadians, as it should be, and voting numbers have absolutely nothing to do with those decisions, as it should be. Ho Ho

[updated Fri Feb 08 01:44:39 -0500 2008]

Nik:

Ever since you mentioned in your interview with Mike Duffy on Wednesday night that Nanos Research has new numbers, I have been eagerly awaiting their release. Wow! As Sir Walter Scott wrote - "What a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive." The BIG question that hits me from these numbers is why we have been hearing the beating of the election drums on Parliament Hill - with the steady drum rolls coming from the Conservatives. My guess is that the Conservatives have been looking closely at Dion and have decided that - perhaps based on their own polling where they have dug deeper into the leadership issue - that Dion is vulnerable, and in the heat of an election campaign he will literally melt under the pressure... so they want to go now before the economy tanks. I can't recall a time in Canadian politics when we have been so polarized for so long without any political party showing any clear lead. The Conservatives had their chance back in May of 2007, but blew it - perhaps they thought their numbers would get better - into the mid-40s, but they lost that momentum and now they look like they are less of an option than the Liberals. If I can offer somewhat of a crass assessment, I think the Conservatives are in deep, deep trouble because, while they have held on to their constituency in the West, they have made no inroads at all in Ontario. They are not really setting the house on fire in Quebec either. So, will there be an election this Spring? These numbers would indicate that there won't. In my view, the ball is clearly in Dion's court. Will he put his backpack on and go home - or will he rally his team and go for a three-pointer? When we sift through these numbers, it really is up to him, isn't it.

[updated Fri Feb 08 08:08:00 -0500 2008]

The numbers are what I expected they would be. There is no outstanding issue to cause a political change. As it stands there is no hope of a majority for either party. However I think that there will be an election.
Harper is putting Dion in a position where he soon can't cave in any longer. If Dion keeps propping up the Conservatives eventually it will destroy any credibility he has. I don't think his caucus is as opposed to him as the rumours say. Or maybe the ambitious front runners (Brutus Ignafieff) want to get rid of him and by calling an election and getting defeated again would give them the opportunity.
Harper knows he can't get a majority but he may be willing to get another minority. That would ensure his government for another few years and put himself in a position to bring in any legislation know that the opposition would have no choice but support him so soon after an election. I think he still feels safe with getting a minority but if he leaves it to much longer he may think that the Liberals will win a minority
My prediction is that Dion will be forced to vote against him and that there will be an election this spring.

[updated Fri Feb 08 09:08:23 -0500 2008]

Hi Nik

Stephen Harper is trying desperately to trigger an election, the sooner the better for the Conservatives. He had a good chance to go last fall but the liberals were in no position to go to the polls, they were forced to allow the government to survive. Dion cannot afford to do this much longer. Unlike the press I believe the liberals will present a united front.

You are right the conservatives are not fighting Dion, no matter how many attack ads and smear campaigns they throw at him. That path will not lead them to majority; they are not fighting the liberal brand only; they are fighting Canadian values, we are not interested in a semi-democratic dictatorship.

Harper and Dion both want to go to the polls but for different reasons. Harper has to go now, because things can only get worst for him, the war, the environment, the wheat board and the isotope incident etc….
Dion wants to go now because he can’t afford to be perceived as propping up this government whose values fall so short of traditional Canadian values any longer.

We are going into an election; the parliament will be dissolved by S. Harper claiming interference by the senate.

[updated Fri Feb 08 09:39:50 -0500 2008]

I am not surprised to see the apparent drop in Conservative support. Each day they are being subjected to vicious attacks by the opposition parties and the media.

However, Mr. Harper and his inner circle has to accept the fact that the government has not been able to raise their polling numbers. There is a real perception, I believe, that has taken hold among the electorate that the government is less forthing coming than it should be about a multitude of things and therefore lacks transparency. The stopping of transfers of detainees is a good case in point. This could have been a good news story for the government but was only revealed through a court case. This is not the way to deal in a frank and open manner with Canadians.

There are other examples where the government has not responded to attacks by the opposition or media and given their side of the story. Failing any response Canadians who are interested are left to believe what the opposition parties are saying is true. There is a fine line between seeing too much of the prime minister and not enough. I think the latter is the case with this government. Therefore the impression being perpetrated by the opposition and media is that the government is secretive.

Mr. Harper handles himself very well in news conferences but he fails to inspire Canadians. The speeches lack passion and a real effort to cause Canadians to take pride in their country and at the same time to create the feeling that the country is in good hands under this administration. It is more about talking points than substantive dialogue. If this does not change the government will have to face the consequences.

On the other hand Harper's leadership numbers are consistently far and away better than Dion's even though Dion's improved in this latest poll. I suspect that Nik is right. Harper is competing against the Liberal brand which is very strong. Conservative fundraising is outpacing the Liberals by a wide margin which confirms there is real support for the Conservative message in this country.

So as NIk says there is no clear cut apparent winner in these numbers we all know there are many factors that affect the outcome of an election. I believe that Mr. Harper and his team will outperform the weak Dion and his divided party. At the end of the day there is only two choices for Canadians as to which government they want. One that has shown competent. decisive leadership or one that has no credible position on any subject of the day and who has proven that they are prepared to steal taxpayers money in order to stay in power.

[updated Fri Feb 08 11:11:44 -0500 2008]

I think as long as the Conservatives try and win in Quebec and not in Ontario they will not win a majority. Ontario is the key battleground! This is where the votes are and this is where the largest population is. As long as Harper tries to overlook that and not address Ontario's issues they simply will not get a majority. The "Mulroney strategy" of overlooking Ontario and getting votes in Quebec. In particular from the BLOC ridings he is hoping for will only materialize once they realize that Ontario will make them an "empty chair." Anything else is just making deals with the devil at the expense of a strong united Canada. The more deals he makes with the devil will only be one more nail in the coffin in Ontario.

Just as one example I don't think Harper realizes that by giving Alberta and B.C. more seats in the House he probably has cost himself more seats in Ontario.

A good question? Ontario has gone all red (Liberal) in the last 25 years. But has it gone all blue (Conservative)?

[updated Fri Feb 08 14:50:39 -0500 2008]

Harper's Conservatives 2008 are the Canadian political equivalent of the Bush Republicans of early 2003. They're on the popularity slide to hell and the only way they can think to change things is by attacking something. In Bush's case it was Iraq. And that worked -- for awhile. In Harper's case it's Dion. And that fiddle's been played. Harper isn't as close to the depths of political hell as Bush, but he's well on his way. Harper's forgotten what got him elected two years ago. He took a giant step left and brought his party into the center-right of the political spectrum. Voters fed up with the Liberals felt comfortable enough to give Harper a minority to let him show what he can do. Now they've watched that pitiful, bitter and silly display for two years they're ready to vote Liberal again. Or NDP. Or Bloc. Or Green. Or anybody but CPC. And yes all you Albertans out there you'll stand by your man. But that isn't going to matter. If the Liberals can hold out forcing an election for another year or so, Alberta will be an island of Conservatism in a sea of sanity.

[updated Fri Feb 08 15:03:42 -0500 2008]

Hello Nik,

Good job on the medias, and as usual, always a professional!

You know that it always hurts me to the bone when I see the bloq ratings in this province of Qc.

However, as a proponent of your blog; haven't I always held the belief that this present gov/t. will self-destruct, and that (Alberta will be a huge card if the Prov. Grits win the undecided votes), and as I have always maintained that Mr. Harper will never have a majority. At the next elections the harperites are out!

Jean Charest distanced himself from the conservatives, and since the adq is down, how much flip-flopping can the PM do? Is he going to try to appeal to the pq?

The US economy is in trouble, and the monies that have been thrown unwisely and too late within the US economy won't salvage the crops. Unfortunately, our Canadian economy is also going to feel it 6 months down the road. In the State of Ohio alone, and with the mortgage sub-prime rate crunch, they have 6.1% unemployment...more than the national average.

In answer to your last question, the question is not can Mr. Harper win a majority; it is that he can no longer hope to win even a minority. Canadians keep saying that they do NOT want an election! Imagine the cost, the unknown state of our coming economy, the surplus that have been wasted by a PM who is an economist, his pursuit of continuing in Afghanstan after Robert Fowler, Former UN Ambassador, who states that this war/mission has failed since the days of Alexander the Great, and will take generations of undertaking losses without a real hope of prevailing...Peter Van Loan's loss of his senses in the medias a few days ago...If this gov/t cannot finish the job; let them retire, and hand over to the Opposition that is slowly gaining Canadian votes.

Darfur is coming back on the plate...As Mr. Fowler explained, there are so many Countries that we can help, and really make a difference...Let us exploit those possibilities, whereby we have proved that we can make a difference.

Cheers, and keep up the good work Nik.

[updated Fri Feb 08 19:57:41 -0500 2008]

Hi Nik, I saw your interview on Question Period (CTV) and noted that the interviewer studiously avoided bringing up the most important aspect of the poll; ie: both the Liberals and Conservatives are droppping in support while the NDP, Bloc, and Greens are rising. I believe that this is directly resulting from the respective positions on Afghanistan taken by the parties.

The Cons and Libs either support or are ambivilant about extending the combat mission. The other three oppose extending the combat mission in no uncertain terms. The resultant 10 point swing away from the Lib/Con parties and towards the others have a direct correlation IMHO.

I am quite sure that A'Ghan will be the ballot question if the election comes soon.

[updated Mon Feb 11 11:41:02 -0500 2008]

Hello Nik,

Just watched your latest poll on Duff this evening, and you have to admit that your poll is what I have been predicting all along, a Liberal win!

Good show!

Cheers

[updated Fri Feb 15 20:58:11 -0500 2008]

Nik:

I agree with most of your assessment and I believe I can explain why there is election buzz in the air when the numbers don't seem great for the Liberals or Conservatives... The word for it is: intangibles.

Canadians are often asked who among the party leaders is the better leader, but are rarely asked about their view of leaders' vision for the future Canada or who is the better statesman or even who is more "like-able".

The Conservatives want to go now to get ahead of many realities bubbling under, among them:
1) A possible economic downturn (which is why Prentice is making his absurd $98 billion deficit statement and asking Liberals to show their plan before the Conservatives do) that would expose financial management incompetence;
2) Media reports from the legal battle with Elections Canada on the in-and-out scheme;
3) Media reports about results of investigations into interference in the Ottawa municipal election about the O-Train and inducement of Terry Kilrea to step aside;
4) Increased reports of casualties resulting from a spring offensive in Kandahar;
5) The possibility of NATO allies not coming through with the meager troop and equipment request as stated in the Manley report;
6) The Liberals getting any kind bump from by-elections; and
7) The Bloc preparing to attack the Conservatives 24/7 with all the resources at their disposal in Quebec.

The Conservatives have lashed out at everyone over the their term. They've lost Newfoundland and Labrador with Danny Williams promoting ABC; May, Dion and Bill Casey are on their case in NS; Charest's none too pleased with Harper's flirtation with Dumont in Quebec; McGuinty's fuming at being repeatedly called "the small man of Confederation"; BC, ON & QU are upset with lack of action on the forestry and/or manufacturing crises; Farmers in the west are upset with the games being played with the Wheat Board; and SK is still wondering about their natural resources revenues and equalization payments. The CPC have also lost women, many seniors (income trusts) and any Canadian who cares about our military but does not support the current mission as it stands (one can only be called Taliban-lover so many times after all), and finally any Canadian who cares about the environment.

Why wouldn't the Conservatives want to go now? There's soon to be a fire sale on Conservative seats throughout the country (with the possible exception of AB, but with all the interprovincial migration, demographics are changing there too)!

The Liberals are hoping that many of these issues will be brought to light during the campaign, and that they'll maybe even get lucky (as did the Conservatives when the RCMP announced an investigation in the middle of the last campaign) with one or more of the potential ticking timebombs mentioned above exploding during the election period.

The Conservatives, given their treatment of the media, will also not get the free-ride they recieved in the last election when everyone was right pissed at the Liberals for their then-shady habits.

The Liberals know that the Conservatives can't possibly, based on these numbers and realities, secure another majority. Moreover, the Liberals know that PM Harper has staked his leadership on a Conservative majority in this coming election.

For the Liberals, there is nothing to lose by rolling the dice. At worst, they'll be in another minority situation and there will be a leadership change. At best they'll get a minority or a majority.

Any outcome except for a Conservative majority (or possibly a very convincing margin of victory for a minority win) will eventually lead to PM Harper's ouster.. and with no leader-in-waiting given the one-man-show approach, possibly the implosion of the current PC/Reform alliance.

The upside is pretty good for the Liberals no matter what happens, particularly with the Bloc having decided that they are going to spend all their time and money in Quebec bashing the Conservatives for a change (after 5 consecutive elections of Liberal bashing).

If anything comes out about the in-and-out scandal during the campaign, both the NDP and Bloc will spend time in Quebec painting the Conservatives as being just as corrupt as the sponsorship-scandal era Liberals.

Why wouldn't the Liberals want to go now?

[updated Mon Feb 18 19:45:36 -0500 2008]

Nik:

Do you think that there could be an Obama-effect from the current US political race here in Canada?

The Reformers/Conservatives and Liberals have viciously been at each other's throats for years now and we're sick of "lowest common denominator politics".

I think that the combo of the outright worldwide rejection of the Bush legacy coupled with so many Canadians tuned in to the US race, watching Obama "do politics differently", has Canadians comparing the level of discourse in our politics to what is going on south of us.

I posit that as Obama's popularity increases, Canadians will be looking for Obama-like qualities in our next PM... particularly since he might very well become President. Canadians might want a PM in place who would actually get along with a potential President Obama (or even a President Clinton).

I predict that Liberal strength in the polls with continue to slowly rise as it becomes more clear who the Democratic nominee will be.

Canadians are already realizing that the next US President will most likely be a Democrat and that Dion would be a much better fit as PM than Harper, particularly given Obama's views on the environment or the Conservatives' current attitude to women.

Given the importance of Canada-US relations, this will be a key factor in the Canadian election race.

[updated Wed Feb 20 13:27:37 -0500 2008]

The Conservatives may start out of the gate even with the Liberals, but the Conservatives will cross the finish line ahead and here is why.
The Conservatives cannot lose voters to the right of them, the Liberals have to keep and attract left wingers from the Green and NDP, which will repel otherwise attracted conservative Liberals.
Both parties will retain their base brand support, yet the Conservatives are in a better position to attract un-committed voters because they have delivered on their past election promises, they have run a clean government, and most of all, they can count on Harper delivering votes because of his respected style of leadership. Harper will outdraw Dion by a country mile.

[updated Sun Feb 24 08:01:25 -0500 2008]

Has anyone else taken a look at the question ? It's no wonder these numbers are drastically different from other polls; by looking at the top TWO choices, Nick has nullified a large number of undecided voters that would likely lean towards the Conservatives. It seems obvious (at least to me) that many of people have been voting Liberal for a long time, and when asked to supply two choices, will name their old one as well as their new one.

[updated Sun Feb 24 09:53:07 -0500 2008]

Hello Nik,

I heard you on 940AM radio with Charles Adler, no conservative friend of mine, and you stated what I have already posted that scandals, and soap operas seem to inspire people, more so than the issues. That to bring down governments on scandals is not good for our Country, and our Democracy, and I totally agree with your assessment. It is also mine.

However, and perhaps because an answer could have been a conflict of interest for you, but I thought that you missed on not responding to Mr. Adler's last question about not having any great politicians and Leaders at this time, and instead you laughed it off, and ignored a chance to give an intelligent view, if only to precipitate people to think about those matters, and to debate.

I shall grant you that if Mr. Adler's guests do not agree with him, he rudely cuts them off, and no one is allowed to give an opinion that he doesn't agree with. Mr. Adler is an ardent right-winger, and just does not get it that people can disagree with his totalitarian reviews.
It's his show, and he has regard for no one who disagrees with him. My point is that there is only one viewpoint, and that it is his.

This is why I found it regretable for someone like you, who is intelligent, can make a difference, and can certainly hold his own at all times with any biggot, that I was disappointed not to hear you make, even a small positive statement, and let him off as though once again he had proven his point.

No matter what party that you allign yourself with, and as an invited guest, and a man of definate intelligence, I was disappointed that you prefered to acknowledge Mr. Adler's comments, and let him continue to wear his blinkers, and feel all so pleased with himself.

It's his show, but if he doesn't want confrontation, why bother inviting guests who might disagree.

Nik, although I apologize, and do not want to put you on the spot, but I was disappointed that a man of your stature, with your intelligence, and public standing, did not, in my personal opinion live-up to your capabilities, and voice your thoughts.

Normally, you always live-up to my expectations in the medias, and today I was truly disappointed.

Unless I am wrong, I would love to hear your side of the story, As always,

Cheers,

[updated Mon Mar 03 23:20:47 -0500 2008]

I have been reading a lot of blogs; I cannot understand why Canadians are so easily hoodwinked by this government. The conservatives keep thumping their chest about how accountable they are, while trying to bribe votes. Have broken all kinds of promises, such as income trust, they leak information about their political opponents south of the border. Have declared war on the Canadian wheat board, have emptied the federal coffers Are presently in an all out battle of words with the Premier of Ontario and Newfoundland. Yet Canadians still believe their high priced propaganda campaign.
Do we absolutely have follow the path of our southern neighbors? They are at the tail end of eight years of republican rule, we’ve only had two years……. and already we are close to a deficit. Liberals did not screw up the country this badly in 13 years

Wake up Canada

[updated Wed Mar 05 07:40:46 -0500 2008]

Hello Nik,

Just heard you on cpac with Peter Van Dusen, and it all registered...I am happy that you are not a politician, and you should be giving your unbiased, and wise viewpoints on a daily basis. Perhaps this would help all Canadians understand what is happening with the games of politics.

This was a great and honest interview. Please do it more often, and set the record straight.

The " psycology of the economy" was a great theme that you discussed. I agree totally with this perception that it has not hit us yet, but wait till it happens! Voters will react.

Another perspective, on Stephane Dion, is that he'll be damned if he does, and he'll be damned if he doesn't", reminds me a lot of Premier Jean Charest's first term. He could not make a move without being attacked, and today he is entering his second term, after today's budget, which was a good preventive and safe budget for possible dire times to come if the American economy collapses, and Mr. Harper has since depleated our surplusus. Should an emergency happens, and the Afghan war is turning out to be double the cost, where is he going to find funds for those emergencies?

We have no troops, and the US is short on troops with Iraq, and with 'bush' always contemplating invading Iran, (crazy idea), there is a standing option already in the making that we could see Canadian forces in the US, and vice-versa, should there be any kind of an emergency.

Terrific interview; in 5 minutes you summed-up the whole picture, clearly, and for all to grasp.

The reason that Canadians are not paying attention is that they are totally fed-up with the behaviour in the "House"...Not what they were elected to do, and acting like "buffons"!
They were not elected to spin the truth, but to answer to it! That's what they are paid for!
No reflection on you, Nik. (ha-ha)

Cheers, and good for you!

PS:
Education and the Economy is a priority on my list if we want our citizens to fare in a competing global economy.

[updated Fri Mar 14 00:12:47 -0400 2008]