The election decision currently lies in the hands of either Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion. Looking at the numbers, calling an election is fraught with risks for them both. Our latest tracking shows a statistical tie between the federal Liberals (33%) and the Conservatives (31%). And support for the Harper Conservatives has marginally slipped in the past 90 days. Conversely, the Layton New Democrats have slowly regained ground over the past three waves of Nanos tracking.
The Liberals lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while the Tories continue to lead in the West. In the province of Quebec, the Bloc is ahead of both the Liberals and the Conservatives, who are locked in a statistical tie.
Of note, Nanos tracking indicates that the level of comfort with the idea of a Harper majority, although still solid, has declined compared to a year ago.
Even though the Harper Tories have been merciless in their attacks on Stephane Dion, these attacks have not, over the past year yielded any political dividends in public opinion for the Tories. The reality is that the Tories are not fighting Dion…they are fighting the Liberal brand. In vote rich Ontario and also in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have never been able to surpass the Liberals in popular support over the past two years. Think of the risks for Harper….a likely spring offensive in Afghanistan (every spring the Taliban have launched an offensive) increases the possibility of casualties and the demand for clarity on Afghanistan from both Harper and Dion.
Then there’s the economy. If the Canadian economy does slide, the Tories will likely be better served by going to the polls in the Spring – ahead of a potential downturn. For the Liberals, the challenge is Quebec where Dion has not been embraced by Quebecers and the Liberals still suffer from post-adscam syndrome. Any improvement in Liberal fortunes in Quebec denies the Tories a majority and election will be up for grabs.
I can understand why Layton, Duccepe and May want an election. Harper and Dion’s enthusiasm is harder to understand based on the numbers and the likely environment for a potential Spring election.
Methodology
Polling between February 2nd and February 4th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 1002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The Nanos Research Survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The subset of committed voters is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in November, 2007.
Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)
Canada (N=841, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
- Liberal Party 33% (-1)
- Conservative Party 31% (-4)
- NDP 19% (+2)
- BQ 10% (+1)
- Green Party 8% (+2)
Ontario (N=250, MoE ± 6.4%, 19 times out of 20)
- Liberal Party 43% (NC)
- Conservative Party 31% (-1)
- NDP 19% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (+1)
Quebec (N=217, MoE ± 6.7%, 19 times out of 20)
- BQ 37%(+4)
- Conservative Party 23% (-6)
- Liberal Party 22% (-1)
- NDP 12% (+1)
- Green Party 6% (+3)
Question: As you may know, the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper is a minority government. Based on what you know and have seen about Stephen Harper and the Conservative government’s record so far, would you be comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or uncomfortable with the Stephen Harper-led Conservatives potentially winning the next election and forming a majority government?
The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in April, 2007
- Comfortable 29% (-4)
- Somewhat comfortable 24% (+3)
- Somewhat uncomfortable 17% (+2)
- Uncomfortable 28% (+1)
- Unsure 4% (NC)
So….how do you feel about having a federal election? Who do you think would/could/will win a federal election if it occurred this spring?
Cheers,
NJN
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Well, Nik, I believe I have an equally reliable predictor for the Canadian polit... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Feb 01:44
Nik: Ever since you mentioned in your interview with Mike Duffy on Wednesday ... more
Gordo05 (Newfoundland and Labrador) 08 Feb 08:08
I am not surprised to see the apparent drop in Conservative support. Each day th... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 08 Feb 11:11
I agree that Harper should have given Ontario all the seats to which it is entit... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 24 Feb 02:57
You mention fundraising as an indicator of support for the Conservatives. Howev... more
broughad (Ontario) 09 Feb 00:26
I got to give you that one Martin did not do well as Prime Minister. He was turf... more
Mike (Québec) 09 Feb 19:45
Comments
Tom Good
Well, Nik, I believe I have an equally reliable predictor for the Canadian political scene. Unfortunately, one chicken sacrificed itself for the greater good and the entrails foretold the future amid the blood and the stink. Nothing will change for the first part of the year. Stephen will get his way and Stephane will "bow to his caucus"-----Obviously, the two great political leaders are only doing this for the greater good of Canadians, as it should be, and voting numbers have absolutely nothing to do with those decisions, as it should be. Ho Ho
[updated Fri Feb 08 01:44:39 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 01:44
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Gordo05
Nik:
Ever since you mentioned in your interview with Mike Duffy on Wednesday night that Nanos Research has new numbers, I have been eagerly awaiting their release. Wow! As Sir Walter Scott wrote - "What a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive." The BIG question that hits me from these numbers is why we have been hearing the beating of the election drums on Parliament Hill - with the steady drum rolls coming from the Conservatives. My guess is that the Conservatives have been looking closely at Dion and have decided that - perhaps based on their own polling where they have dug deeper into the leadership issue - that Dion is vulnerable, and in the heat of an election campaign he will literally melt under the pressure... so they want to go now before the economy tanks. I can't recall a time in Canadian politics when we have been so polarized for so long without any political party showing any clear lead. The Conservatives had their chance back in May of 2007, but blew it - perhaps they thought their numbers would get better - into the mid-40s, but they lost that momentum and now they look like they are less of an option than the Liberals. If I can offer somewhat of a crass assessment, I think the Conservatives are in deep, deep trouble because, while they have held on to their constituency in the West, they have made no inroads at all in Ontario. They are not really setting the house on fire in Quebec either. So, will there be an election this Spring? These numbers would indicate that there won't. In my view, the ball is clearly in Dion's court. Will he put his backpack on and go home - or will he rally his team and go for a three-pointer? When we sift through these numbers, it really is up to him, isn't it.
[updated Fri Feb 08 08:08:00 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 08:08
61 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
blossom
I am back Gordo05,
As Sir Walter Scott, or is it Raleigh so said: "My Native Land"
Breathes there the man with soul so dead, whose heart had near'd within him burned...
The PM has lost it, and I am anxious to see how he intends cow-towing with Qc in his budget this year...It could be that we also have to go back to the polls within the year again, again, and again....
Another moot point - The PM is from Ontario, and not from Alberta as is his better half. I often hear, in this Province of Qc, - Steve Who? Oh you mean the guy who's taking his orders from "bush"....,
Your assessment is not crass; just stating the obvious.
I think that I should stop now - I promised never to be mean! I haven't even yet tasted the wine...
[updated Fri Feb 08 23:12:35 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 23:12
blossom
Hello Gordo05,
I thought that I had already responded to your post.
I always commend Nik for being truly professional, however, Nik stated that his polling numbers were already (stale), i.e. prior to the Manley Commission, or something?
Last week it was definately "election frenzy", but the medias seem to be begging for this?
Today's ;news was that Mr. Harper was in Qc and that he might pick-up many more seats...Don't you believe it! People who were interviewed stated that they were there because first and foremost; it was a "free" breakfast...
In Qc. one never knows where the pin falls...The adq will no longer be the opposition, and the pq is broke and ruffling a lot of feathers!
Does one really believe that we are going to have a Federal election, Prov. in Alberta where the Grits are showing well, and a possible election out here...NO!
From past experience, the parties will agree to disagree, re-shuffle the cards, and all will fall into place. Right now, no party would benefit from an early, unwanted election; except that when Canadians realize perhaps next Fall that their toes are being somewhat stubbed; they will remember at the polls.
M. Dion is ready for any eventuality, but will not compromise his Leadership, call an election that Canadians do not want, and especially fall into Mr. Harper's election traps...
If one is fair, one has to agree that M. Dion's first year as Opposition Leader was not easy, and that Mr. Harper's attack ads were unrelentless, and Canadians did not know him, and he had been badgered in his own Province for the :Clarity Act. The Liberal party was divided from within, and out of funds.
I shall grant you that the PM shows well, but when it comes to the facts; M. Dion has proved that he can delve deep within policies, and his arguments are strong. I watched during the Leadership Candidate Race, and you can believe me that you can take anything he states as "cash to the bank".
I think that we shall be seeing many more concessions but if M. Dion can hold himself back from falling into all of the pitfalls thrown at him, that his numbers will grow astonishingly. Only a loser wants to throw away his chances! One has to take it in stride, and see the broad picture, and take the longterm view.
The pitfall has been defining who looks more prime-minestarial, rather than looking deep down into the issues and policies. This is what defines a Leader from somebody who wants votes.
I don't think that we differ on any of this, except that your doubts seem to be about an unknown Leader who never got his honeymoon???
I still state, and you are absolutely right, that Mr. Harper as much as he tried to get a majority did not obtain it, and even when you thought that the time was ripe - this is where I disagree. He got his chance, got elected on his 5 platform issues, which did not have much substance. This is what defined his career. It is possible that Mr. Harper will get what he's been asking for, but there's an old saying "Be careful what you wish for"!
All in all, woman are more recalcitrant to an authoritarian PM. as the polls have also shown, and M. Dion offers an alternative!
My quote just got a little bit altered...I din't have it in sight, but I thought that it fit the purpose.
My hunch is that "no" election for now - not until the economy softens, and with election fever in the US, Canadians will want to see how that develops. We just might learn something. And I also agree with you that the state of our "Economy" will be the clincher to call an election.
[updated Sun Feb 10 00:03:15 -0500 2008]
10 Feb 00:03
Gordo05
There's a great column in today's Montreal Gazette by commentator L. Ian MacDonald entitled "Harper should be careful what he wishes for: Recent polls indicate the Liberals could form the next minority government." It is so reflective of the way I am feeling on this issue that I decided to cut and paste most of it here. My apologies if you have already read it. But I thought others would be interested as well... I've had to do some editing, as it goes beyond the total permitted on this site (5000 characters). So here goes:
Stephen Harper appears to be stage-managing the defeat of his minority government in the House. In offering the opposition three different confidence issues in the next two months - Afghanistan, the budget and the crime bill - he's daring them to combine on at least one of them to bring down the government.
Of the three, only the budget - due in late February for a vote in early March - is an automatic question of confidence. But in tabling the resolution on extending the Afghanistan mission, government House leader Peter Van Loan declared, as expected, that it would also be a confidence issue. For good measure, the government is throwing in a vote on the crime bill as a confidence question, in the event it doesn't clear the Liberal-dominated Senate by the end of this month.
The last one, the crime bill, is pure mischief-making on Harper's part, taunting Stéphane Dion. As it happens, both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois are likely to support the government on this one, since neither party is a big fan of the Senate.
As for the Afghan motion, it might not be the trigger for an election in that the Liberals are divided on this issue and don't want to go to the country on it. They could end up forcing an election on the budget, instead.
But Harper, for his part, should beware what he wishes for. April, with an election, could turn out to be the cruelest month.
Indeed, a new Nanos poll suggests there is not only every reason for Harper to reflect seriously on forcing his defeat in the House, but every good reason to avoid it.
Nik Nanos is the pollster who called every party's result in 2006 to within one-tenth of one percentage of the outcome, which set a new standard for accuracy in measuring public opinion.
From three days in the field last week, Nanos found the Liberals moving ahead of the Conservatives 33 to 31 per cent, and the NDP at 19 per cent nationally.
In Quebec, Nanos saw the Bloc at 37 per cent (up four points in two months), the Conservatives at 23 per cent (down six), and the Liberals at 22 per cent (down one). While regional breakouts leave room for twice the margin of error (six points as opposed to three), Nanos is basically in line with the previous week's authoritative CROP poll, which saw the Bloc at 36 per cent, the Conservatives at 27 per cent and the Liberals at 21 per cent in Quebec. The CROP numbers would give the Conservatives only the 11 Quebec seats they have now, the Nanos poll would give them even fewer.
The Conservatives are looking at even worse numbers in Ontario, where the Liberals lead 43 to 31 per cent, with the NDP at 19 per cent. For the Tories, this isn't even 2006 all over again, when their 35 per cent produced 40 Ontario seats; but more like 2004, when their 30 per cent resulted in only 24 seats, with the Tories virtually shut out in Toronto's suburban 905 belt.
Harper still has much stronger leadership numbers than Dion, but not the huge advantage he enjoyed a year ago. For example, on the key attribute of competence, Harper leads Dion 39-16; on trust 30-14, and on vision, 32-17.
Those are still 2-1 margins, but not enough for wise heads to overlook voting intention. On that, the Nanos poll is clear. There is no majority for anyone, and quite possibly a Liberal minority produced by Ontario.
Tactics and brinksmanship are all very well in the House. But if Harper means to go to the country, he needs much better numbers than this in his pocket.
[updated Mon Feb 11 14:41:44 -0500 2008]
11 Feb 14:41
blossom
Hello Gordo05.
In one of my latest posts this is exactly what I said; that Mr. Harper better be careful what he wishes for!!!
Politically, we are on the same wavelength. Ian J. MacDonald was Mr. Mulroney's official speechwriter. Yes, I do read him occasionally, but Craid Oliver of CTV rarely has it wrong.
Mr. Harper from the start wanted to ignite volcanoes to go to the polls; as I have always predicted he will never attain a majority...I state that he cannot even get a 'minority'...He might get that election which he craves for, but won't get what he hopes for.
The only logical solution, and M. Dion stated with passion, determination, and wants to make logical amendments and bring solutions so that we don't stagnate in Afghanistan without a plan...2009 - will be extented for 2011, without chasing after combat. This Nato led compact mission will last 'till 2011, and Mr. Harper is responsible for having made this issue one of political games, not telling the truth about the mission and how bad it was getting out there, and that our soldiers need to train the "national polic
Mr. Harper secretly met Premier J. Charest this week-end??? Another silent, mysterious mission. Still trying to get votes!
The Crime Bill is already approved at 4/5...The Senate, that both the harpercrites, and ndp want to get rid of, have had this Bill for 9 days only to review.This Bill would have been passed had Mr. Harper not progated Parliament after Xmas. It was repetitios of last Fall.
Mr. Harper declared that we would have elections in 2009; now he wants to self-defeat before the designated date.
Why aren't we seeing Mr. Harper this week? Is he still docile? He's not following the Manley report that he called!
Minister Jim Flaherty has already told us what to expect - they have given it all away.
J. Charest wants 2.- some billion dollars for the manufacturing and forestry sector, both for Qc., and Ontario.
If I heard correctly Mr. Flaherty thinks that all that can be done for any eventuality with the forth-coming crunch in the Economy has already been done. Not so my friend; not if we are paying attention to the US economy that will drive this home next summer.
Aghanistan should not be a politial issue. This is a war, and should be debated until we all know where we stand. We must be assured of finding other allies.
I agreed with Nik said on CTV yesterday, except that Dion is proving the Leader I hoped that he would be; give him a little bit more time and experience - he is learning the ropes. And I disagree Nik, about the Grits gaining a minority, but they will achieve a small majority.
Since the 'bloq', the party that sees to nationalists' interests, is helping Harper. Some are even calling that they are no longer needed.
If the Liberals win Alberta, and Qc calls an election; this voter fatigue will be imminent.
The Crime Bill is not an election call. The Senators will give a full, extra week, and will amend the Bill. If an election, it would go until 2009. Harper's base wouldn't appreciate this.
Jim Flaherty has already prepared us not to expect much; in the budget since he's already blown it away.
I don't know if you have noticed, but it is getting pretty mean in the House!!!Nothing new, but the points are coming across finally.
Gamesmanship: Since when does a monority party with so few priorities, call a vote of confidence on each issue. I find it insulting to our own Parliamentary system.
I predict that this week we shall see some unforeseen developments, and that this will open a few can of worms. If one plays with fire, one can get burned!
To me, it is obvious that the PM has lost it!
Canadians do not want an election - They want Parliament to function, and the cost of this election will backfire on Mr. Harper, because he is calling the shots!
My feeling is that they do not want to cope with what is coming, and would rather bow out by pushing an election down our throats.
In essense we agree, Gordo05, Anything but this present govt.
Cheers,
[updated Tue Feb 12 01:51:48 -0500 2008]
12 Feb 01:51
Gordo05
Blossom:
I spent the evening in front of the TV watching Mike Duffy Live - CPAC and NewsWorld. All were bopping back and forth with various political spokesthingys (as Frank Magazine calls them) on the various scenarios being played out. The Conservatives look so stupid on this Crime Bill thing with the Senate even Duffy was taking strips off Tory MP Rob Moore right to his face. The $64,000 question here is why Harper wants to go to the polls now. I don't understand it. The National Post is reporting today that Harper is prepared to ask the Governor General to pull the plug on the minority Parliament and trigger a spring election if the Senate does not pass the government's violent-crime bill by March 1. But some constitutional experts say such a move would conflict with a federal law passed last year setting fixed-election dates. Under the law, which was introduced by the Harper government, the next federal election is slated for October, 2009, unless the opposition parties defeat the government before then. Constitutional expert Erroll Mendes says in the same article that "One could make a very strong argument to the Governor General to refuse his request because he's violating his own law." Mendes is a professor of constitutional and international law at the University of Ottawa. He said that an attempt to force an election would also violate the constitutional principle of Senate independence. He said the Commons has no authority to compel the Senate to pass legislation. Tory heavy-weight Peter Van Loan (sorry Peter, but if the shoe fits...) has said the fixed-election law doesn't prevent the prime minister from asking the Governor General to dissolve Parliament. The Conservative House leader is quoted as saying "There is nothing in the law that takes away the Crown's traditional and usual prerogatives on this matter." He said this at a news conference when he announce the motion last week. The motion will be put to a vote as early as today, and is expected to pass. If the Senate then refuses to pass the bill by March 1, the two chambers of Parliament would be at a "clear impasse," Van Loan said last week. Someone made a point either in this chat area or in response to a story on CTV or CBC - I read so much online stuff I don't recall where I saw this - but the person made a comment that every time Peter Van Loan lies, his left eyebrow touches his hairline... I kept thinking about that when he was on the various channels last night, and believe me, his eyebrow twitched a lot. So, Blossom, it looks like you and I and the rest of Canada will be plunged into a federal election within the next few weeks. By the way, I joined the Liberal Party of Canada this week. Seems like a bargain to me - only $5. I'll be able to vote at the candidate selection meeting in my riding. A former colleague of mine is running for the Liberal nomination, so I think I'll support her. May even volunteer to work for her if she wins the nomination. She is a good choice, as she is an accomplished businesswoman, a former president of the local board of trade, and I "media-trained" her about 20 years ago when she worked for one of our local credit unions. I think the Liberals will emerge united under the Afghanistan amendments they have hammered out and M. Dion is beginning to look like the stateman he is - not the poor leader demonized by the Conservatives in their attack ads. After all, they are "attack" ads and I think the Canadian people are fed up with the "bs" from the Conservatives and Harper, and are looking for someone with principles. Dion is no Barack Obama - but he's good enough for me.
[updated Tue Feb 12 09:30:00 -0500 2008]
12 Feb 09:30
blossom
Hello Gordo05,
How well I understand you...Think about it...
Mr. Harper in his platform campaign stated that he would do away with the vastly Liberal Senate. Elected a Conservative Senator. (Forget his name). Most Canadians aren't even interested with the Senate. (Distraction).
Mr. Harper said that he liked his job, and wanted to keep it, and he obviously meant it - He will for a little while yet. Election feaver...(distraction).
Mr. Harper cannot give a vote of confidence to the Senate, re. Crime Bill already 4/5ths accepted. (Distraction).
I have asked what happens if he goes to the Gov. General and asks to bring down his gov/t. at his own request? Madame Jean is pretty smart, (don't know which party she votes for in Qc), but does our Constitution permit her to respond -
NO? No one is asking to bring down the present gov/t, and at what costs, etc...Just a thought! I would love to see a first, and Mme Jean react and say that Canadians do not want to spend for an election, and go back to your office ,and do what Canadians ask of you, when you asked them to vote for you!!!
Hey, I just finished reading the rest of your post...WOW...Welcome to the club. This is exciting news, and what made you join? I mean what triggered this sudden leap?
Okay, I just listened to Obama this evening, and this reminds me of the old US of A that I so loved! The reason that Hillary is losing is that whilst she realized that she was losing those States, she headed for the bigger stakes - Texas...totally ignoring the electorate that would vote for Obama. Now Hillary claims that she will be Commander in Chief, rather than President. I guess this virus is catchy!
The time has come to reshape our civil societies as John Saul stated, and that with Globalization that we stood up to the plate, in the words of Obama, and Stephane Dion. As Eisenhower had warned; "beware of the industrial complex".
It is time that we created and innovated. Civility, principles, values, Education, Scientists and mathematicians that can, at least, cope, if not compete. We seem to have forgotten our goals and ideals for the future, and have become blind to the hopes and aspirations that our grandparents had. Canada is a Country of innovators and inventors.
There is good news in my province today. Mme St-Pierre has announced her upcoming budget, and it seems that our Provincial Liberals will avoid another election.
What I like about Obama and Dion is that they are trying to take us to another level of intellectual development. Obama's message of "Hope" is better than the conservative message of "fear and prevail". We shall have huge environmental problems to cope with, and we had better get our act together. Obama is sweeping the more educated. We have to get used to a knew developing technological world, whereby the "sky is the sky is the new technological complex.".
The cheap political games that we have witnessed these last two years have waisted time and money, and are pre-historic. I hope that we all get on the band-wagon and choose Leaders because of their policies, rather than their looks.
It is getting so that the parcel is the gift, and most expensive, rather than the content...The markets have benefitted from this wisdom. Give me some substance!
If you can, try to meet M. Dion in person. You will understand what I mean. You will understand the big picture. He has an intelligent, and engaging look in those sparkling eyes, and a winsome smile.
Did you see him Sunday with JaneTaber...M. Dion did not let her interupt him, when rudily interupted, pursued his message, faced the audience and was talking on a one to one with his audience, and finessed with clear understanding, the Afghanistan issue.
We are all fed-up with the old rhetoric.
So happy to have you on board.
[updated Tue Feb 12 23:02:33 -0500 2008]
12 Feb 23:02
Gordo05
Blossom:
I'm not really sure why I joined. Perhaps it is because I wanted to have the ability to contribute to a renewed Canada. Perhaps it is because I am so fed up with the Harper Conservatives that I would be willing to practically sell my political soul in order to see a change. Whatever the case, let's hope it was worth the 5 bucks!
It's both interesting and frustrating to watch the goings-on in Ottawa. The shots of the Liberals standing up and walking out of the House was a strong statement of unity. I'm sure the political pundits will all weigh in with their 2 cents worth and tell us whether it was a good idea or a bad one. In my mind the motion presented by the Conservatives on the crime bill issue was silly, and in some ways insulting to our parliamentary traditions. The walk out looked good on the Liberals.
I was watching Obama on television last night giving his "victory" speech after the so-called Potomac primaries (District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia). I was totally spell-bound by him. I am a speech-writer myself, so I was very interested in dissecting his messages. He reminds me a little of Dr. Martin Luther King. I was just getting into the meat of his speech when CNN suddenly broke away from Obama and carried McCain's victory speech. I was very disappointed and was about to change the channel, but I decided to do an analysis of McCain's style and message. I was generally disappointed (again) in McCain. He was obviously reading from a teleprompter, whereas it appeared - at least - that Obama was speaking from his heart. If Dion can capture even one-fifth of Obama's "magic" he will become a spectacular "foil" to Harper. I have heard Harper speak - ie been at events where he has spoken. His message is always very simple and there is very little embellishment in what he says. He may be speaking from his head - but he certainly does not speak from his heart.
[updated Wed Feb 13 10:38:47 -0500 2008]
13 Feb 10:38
blossom
Gordo05,
There is no other alternative...
If I may suggest, it would be very uplifting, and interesting to use your talents, and offer this help personally to M. Dion.
M. Dion is very engaging, and keeps a very open mind about initiatives that are proposed to him. You can get his email address, and email, and he will respond to you.
Also, besides the weekly Liberal letter that we receive on Friday's, he has a blog of his own, and I just did not have time to look into this. I received this notice last week.
I find that you are very enterprising, and could possibly assist with your ideas, and that I know personally, that he does pay close attention to great suggestions.
This could become a very interesting part-time enterprise for you.
I am always overwhelmed when I listen to Obama; and so downhearted when I have to listen to MacCain.
Personally, I email the Grits at info@liberal.ca, daily, and give my reactions to all that concerns me, and I especially love to tell them when they are doing it right.
Since I no longer receive, even an acknowledgement from this present gov/t,, I suspect that I have been black-listed, and consider this to be a compliment.
I must have hit a few sensitive cords!!!
As long as we are polite, we can make a difference, but I don't believe in wasting my time, and I always go to the top immediately. It is possible.
Hillary is backed by the same Old Establishment, and people are fed-up with this.
I used to thrive on Bill Clinton's speaches, and his first lie I felt was unfair, because this is a personal scandal that the republicans used, and under the belt.
However, Mr. Clinton said that he would never interfere with his wife's campaign: he did: he lied...
Mr. Clinton declared what he saw in N. Mexico: Then he lied about having access to NASA reports, and denied that he had admitted to seeing what others reported. He lied. Whitewater: another lie.
I had the chance of seeing Barack Obama about three years ago, before he even thought of running in this Presidential race, and on a one on one basis, he is electrifying. There is more substance in this one man than one can imagine. He will unite the US, rather than divide African Americans against Hispanics. The republicans divide the Country, and derive their strenght from this, and are articulate at lying!
One needs to listen carefully to all of them, especially those with whom we disagree. As Winston Churchill used to say, "Keep an eye on your enemies", and keep them close!!! It's the only way to know what they are up to.
In your own way, I can feel the energy that exudes from you, and feel that the Liberal party will be benefit. If you are up to it, go for it!
Early this Am, I listened to radio canada news, and out here all we are fed, by our Opposition parties, is about the necessity of more rigorous French laws. The Provincial Liberal party stated yesterday that we shall benefit from 1% less in our economy than had been predicted, this year. I don't think that they take this matter seriously.
With the Danny Williams', Buzz Hargrove's and many others, we shall attain a change of gov/t., and when Canadians realize that the US economy is collapsing, and we feel the crunch, the pundits won't be calling the shots.
They showed the figures for Canadians in debt this morn. How can we not pay attention to this factor. This reflects on the whole Country.
The manufacturing, and lumber sectors need far more help than what was just dished out recently...The US is already back in Court against Canada re. our softwood lumber disputes, that had been won in the Courts, but Mr. Harper moved too quickly, lost us a million dollars, Court costs, and rising tariffs to return. Anyone who is paying attention should be outraged at how this gov/t has acted on our behalf.
Good for you, and I am rooting for you!
[updated Wed Feb 13 11:56:39 -0500 2008]
13 Feb 11:56
Gordo05
Blossom:
Had a busy day yesterday, so I didn't get a chance to pull together a reply. I did do some thinking about a number of your points, and I'll have to continue the thinking. I may offer some "help" to my local Liberal candidate, but I'll have to keep it fairly low key - as I am a federal public servant, and have been for just over 5 years. I did want to comment on the exchange I saw earlier between yourself and zhimmy01 (I'd love to do a study one day on how and why people come up with the silly names they use as their "nom de plumes" on these sites). I was actually using my real name for awhile here and realized that perhaps I shouldn't be doing that, so I asked the Nanos people to change my profile, which they did in a very timely fashion. I like coming on here and sharing ideas and even challenging some others. The Hollinm persons - although a devout Conservative - and I use the word devout on purpose - seems to be able to share ideas and hold to his/her own beliefs in a respectful way. But I found the tone of zhimmy01 to be almost hateful, which is another word I find Conservatives tend to use too often. As you pointed out, one didn't have to read it if one didn't want to, and besides, it was a conversation between ourselves, although we all know that others can read it if they want to. I am getting a little impatient with all the election talk - because there just doesn't seem to be a clear focus, so that perhaps helps explain why we tend to wander around in these posts. I can't figure out why the Conservatives - and I tend not to use the word Tories in connection with this latest bunch of Conservatives, because they are unlike any Tories I've ever known or worked with over the years. Greg Weston has an interesting theory in the Ottawa Sun (not exactly my favorite publication, but I like Weston) - he suggested the reason the Conservatives are trying to bring a quick end to their own government is because the economy is going to tank very soon, and Weston pointed out that the poll Nanos Research did for the Sun also showed that Canadians have lost confidence in the economy and feel much more pessimistic about the future. The latest Nanos-Sun poll has found the national mood turning decidedly cautious if not downright pessimistic. In just three months, barely half as many Canadians now think our current oil-powered economy can steer around the U.S. credit wreckage that has created fiscal chaos south of the border. The Nanos numbers show the cold shower hitting Canadians in every region of the country -- heck, consumer confidence is off sharply even in the booming West. Even in vote-rich Ontario, barely 21% of those surveyed said they believe the economy will continue to improve this year, down from 53% in November. He quoted Nik, who predicted the last two elections within a hair, as saying the latest poll numbers reflect a "dramatic shift in public confidence." These numbers are also scaring the hell out of the Conservatives. And that's why they are trying to orchestrate their own defeat. Makes sense to me...
[updated Thu Feb 14 10:01:30 -0500 2008]
14 Feb 10:01
blossom
Hello Gordo05,
Please let me thank you for responding in your usual kind manner, and your perceptions, political or otherwise, are always right on.
What I immediately liked, and picked-up when I first read your post, was that you are fair, you go into debth about your deductions, and give a reliable position of the state of affairs - for all sides.
You have given me quite a few hints, and I think that I can read between the lines.
I also like Greg Weston, but I never miss the weekly pundits with Don Newman on CBC.
Last night, on the late audio news, I heard that the Harper gov/t. (is what I like to refer to them, since it is a one-man-band) acknowledged that the harpercrite gov/t had spent 31million dollars in 2007 only, for putting two (2) polls daily, and kept us on edge with daily election mode, which has instead gotten this gov/t "election fatigue".
Yes, we shall feel the crunch of the American economy - we have already felt it, and more information is coming out about the US economy which is worst than the sub-prime rate lending. This could have a direct affect as to why Harper wants to bail out.
Today, I have heard Bob Rae ask M. Dion to hold off on a present election, and I agree with him,..Mr. Harper is still baiting traps to ensure that he does call one...However, if M. Dion does call one, it is because he has had it, and hopes that the voters will understand the underlying truths, or should I say falseties that are ongoing behind the scenes.
M. Dion is a man who stands-up for his principles and values, and I see that he finds it difficult to hold back when he sees how the game is being played. I myself, and in his position, would be wild! In my own little way, I have never refrained from standing-up for the "underdog", and have never been afraid to stand up to the mightiest!!! (
This applies to all aspects of life.
Why did Gordon O"Connor state that our Canadian army own the best suitable protective dress, tanks, etc...when just today the Canadian soldiers are asking for changes, and safer garments, and artilary
I agree with you that what we are seeing is being staged by the present gov/t, and the lack of coherence is far too obvious.
Out here in Qc., when I listen to the French news, I find that a lot gets lost in the translation...Often times even addressed after an important time lapse....
For the last 8 years Americans have been in a dilemma, their Country has suffered a loss of their great reputation around the world, and are starting to worry about this. They have 130,000 troops in Iraq, Malaki had to be hospitalized for exhaustion, and was blamed for the outcome in Iraq, each time that the surge din't work. The question is that: should they send those troops to Afghanistan. This is why we are still there; because the US is still in Iraq.
Gordo05, you know the old saying that one "cannot fight City Hall alone"...This is M. Dion's dilemma.
Personally, I would prefer to see M. Dion wait to call an election for now;that time is on his hands, and won't risk losing his Leadership.
I agree that Mr. Harper wants to look good, but his party is muzzled, and that everyone is caught in his autocratic iron-hand plans. You saw what happened to Bill Casey, and others who tried to go against his wishes....We all were subjected to Mr. Harper's stronghold on those who dared to oppose him.
I trust M. Dion will do what he thinks is best, and although he doesn't have a baggage of experience yet, and his first year as Leader was untenable - no one gave him a break - not even within his own party - but used the sledge hammer on him instead.
In Qc., for years they have depicted and attacked M. Dion as an outsider.
If one goes back to 1966 when Mike Pearson won the Nobel Prize, even then his own Liberal caucus had always been totally against him, and would have wanted nothing better than to get rid of him. Today, history quotes him as having been one of our great PM's of the times.
I am in a rush also, but was so pleased that you responded, also on my behalf, and Nik is not one to censure exchange of ideas on this post. He doesn't cut one out for being at opposing ends.
PS: I have had it with the usual spin about who's who, and who's better.
Getting to the bottom of the issues, and the truth is what this is all about, and the welfare of all Canadians.
Always great reading your candid ideas, and keep up the good work.
You makes a lot of sense to me also...
PS: I had to edit half of what I posted...mostly facts and comparisons about arguments.
Thanks,
[updated Thu Feb 14 15:26:58 -0500 2008]
14 Feb 15:26
Gordo05
So the question is: are the Liberals prepared to risk an election over the budget? There doesn't seem to be much of an appetite for an election over the Afghanistan issue, and the silly ploy by the Conservatives over the Senate and the Crime Bill was - well, silly. The Liberals didn't show much appetite for innovative national programs when they were in office, during a decade of staggering surpluses. The Paul Martin government only introduced child care in its dying months, and never did deliver. Whatever the reason, whether politicos want to blame a right-wing media, memories of the high deficits and debt of the eighties, a risk-averse political culture: Ottawa has become a place where bold, generous ideas come to die. As Susan Riley points out in her column in today's Ottawa Citizen, if M. Dion hopes to become prime minister, he would be ill-advised to ditch the training wheels now. Let's face it - he's really not quite ready. There is a possibility that he could "learn on the job" -- or through some kind of baptism by fire if an election was triggered in the next few weeks... But, in my view, until the Liberals become more focussed and coherent they should put off an election as long as they can. October 2009 is Harper's preferred date. It could be a reprieve for the Liberals. So I think everyone should stop the sabre rattling and get on with the job of running this country. I believe we will all be better off for it. Then let's bring on the election in 2009 and let the chips fall where they may. So it may well mean we have to "put up with" the Harperites for another 18 months... Yikes! On second thought, maybe M. Dion should just bring 'em all down.
[updated Fri Feb 15 07:44:52 -0500 2008]
15 Feb 07:44
blossom
Hi Gordo05,
I think that M. Dion's planning for repairing our future infrastructure, and having a fund that both Provinces, and Municipalities will be enable to plan ahead is a plan, and that the harpercrites idea of paying down the debt with no maneuverable resources, is like paying down the mortgage, whilst the food cupboard is empty!!!
Alberta should cut down on it's tar sands activity, since we have enough energy, and the rest is being sold to the US. Huge point of contention, but citizens are being exposed to harmful substances, and they have plenty of resources, and should slow down their production.
Removing "phosphates" from our detergents has causes those algeas that we pick-up in our lake water, that is so bad, that one can not even row a boat, let alone use a motorized boat!
We are polluters, and it is time that our government comes to grip with the issues that our destroying our planet.
I would prefer that M. Dion waits, at least until next Fall to call an election; and far better that Mr. Harper stop accerbating us with election momentum since he knows that his days are numbered, and Canadians do not want another costly election at this time.
I see a huge change in M. Dion's tactics, and it almost seems as though the Grits/caucus are starting to realize that unless they come together and agree, and back their Leader, that they will be the losers.
What I would like to see is Mr. Harper, if he can't get the Grits into falling into his steadfast traps, that he would himself have the courage to go to the Governor General, and call his own downfall!!!
Responding to your reference about Peter Van Loan last week, this is one MP that Mr. Harper trusted to be outspoken, and I guess there is a reason why he keeps his MP"s muzzled.
Your reasoning is sound, as always, well thought out, and although at Xmas I was very enthusiastic for an election, because I had had enough of the harpercrites, now I would prefer to see M. Dion continue to be perceived as a man with an agenda for the future, and a strong Opponent in Parliament, and get the chance that was not his in his first year.
Where is Mr. Harper these days? Last week he was all docility, and this week nowhere to be seen. Admittedly I did miss the sessions in the House this week, but it would seem that they are keeping him in the background, rather than the forefront, when he decides to call the shots.
I also noticed that normally when Mr. Harper is attacking the Liberals, he astutetly always/invariably calls M. Dion's name personally, but last week, so as not to give any credit to M. Dion, he referred that the Liberals and his party might be able to come to terms on Afghanistan.
To quote your last paragraph, I feel the same, and am tempted,to say the heck with it, let us take our chances - Qc and Ontario are not going to sell their votes short to the harpercrite gov/t, but on the other hand, why not let them self-defeat!!!
With a little more time, the Grits will benefit from a "majority" gov/t.
Canadians will be calling for an election when they see fit!
The budget and the Speach From The Throne is when one usually votes for a vote of non-confidence. Since when does a minority gov/t place votes of confidence on any, and all issues?
I maintain that it is the economy whereby M. Dion will call an election, and this could be for next Fall. This would make sense to me. We shall feel the crunch of the downfall of the US economy, that the US gov/t is denying, and Mr. Flaherty will probably get the bloq to vote against it, or could it be that he has already introduced funds that this outlaw party will vote for?
The uncivility, disrespect that this present gov/t., disdain, and it's total disregard for the will of the citizens of Canada; I find absolutely contemptable, and is an affront to our intelligence, especially to those who voted them into a minority gov/t.
I did not vote for them!
[updated Fri Feb 15 18:25:10 -0500 2008]
15 Feb 18:25
Gordo05
Blossom:
I hear that Jean Chretien is now counselling Dion to pull the plug over the budget. Things just keep getting curiouser and curiouser.
[updated Mon Feb 18 07:30:14 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 07:30
blossom
Hello Gordo05,
So did I...
They are two different individuals - J.C. already had a mandate, was politically savy, and was not dealing with a conspiracy with the opposition trying to trap him into an election.
The times have changed, and M. Dion is denoting sagesse, and wisdom, and although I can understand his anger and wanting to go for an election; his caucus does not want to at this time.
Instead of doing the job that harper was appointed to do, I can we can all see the games, and traps to lure M. Dion into an early election.
The news lies in those attack ads this day, I feel, will awaken Canadians, once again, to the pitfalls of this present deceitful gov/t.
We all know that harper inherited a huge surplus, that he has withered away, by decreasing important programs and institutions; used enormous sums of monies on making false attacks against his Opponent, and is showing that he finds M. Dion to be a force to be reckoned with in the next election.
Too bad that Harper did not just govern within his minority gov/t, since Canadians have not yet called for an election, and harper, in his usual dishonest games, wants to blame M. Dion for bringing down the gov/t.
I guess, even a conservative can see the light, because harper's game has become less than intelligent, and his tactics not up to what the Canadian electorate aspires for.
Don't worry Gordo, I don't foresee an election, unless the budget is so outrageous, that it will pass. Danny Williams will not help his cause, and Ontario will vote Liberal. I am anxious to see the outcome of the elections in Alberta.
Wait till Albertans realize that Mr. haprer has sold them short to the US, and 'bush'. This harpercrite gov/t is positively throwing away energy, and just today, price of petrol in this province has gone up to $1.20 - up .17 cents in one day.
Petro-Canada is refusing to have bilingual signs at their filling stations, and I would hope that all English Canadians would boycott them, as we shall in this province. Allen J. Nutik, Pres. of Affiliation Quebec, who is a newly recognized political party who wants to protect the rights of minorities, has already emailed the President of Petro Canada, and I have followed suit with my email plea.
I hope that all Federalist Canadians on this blog will help us, in Qc from the hardships that only 20% of diehard separatists are trying to do in order to separate us.
Kosovo has earned today's Independance, and I am waiting for the harpercite govt to recognize this day, since NATO was out there in order to save them from the Russians who want to deny them their rights, after ethnic cleansing.
M. Dion is in favour of Kosovo's Independence, and the separatists out here feel that they can compare their rights for a sovereign state from Canada. I guess we can all see the absurdity.
I could not tolerate listening to Jim Prentice, and others on CTV
Sunday, last, because the questions were not answered as to what this back-room gov/t has on its agenda, and was so infuriated that it was all about knocking, not the Liberal party, but personal, and badly formed ads, attacks against M. Dion.
Is this what Canadians are asking of the present gov/t? To be on a personal tirade against one man? What about issues, policies, and running the business-side of our government?
Canadians will call an election when they are ready to pay for it, and I hope that M. Dion will continue to wait, so that we can
all see Stephen Harper self-defeat.
PS: Don't forget Thursday, Feb. 21 at 8:00PM, on CNN, a debate between Obama vs Hillary...It's easy to foresee who will be more inspirational.
Jean Chretien is angry, and I can understand that he would go for it, but the circumstances were different. Even so, if M. Dion calls an election; I still maintain a small majority win for the Liberals at worst!
The bloq (unless harper has promised a present to Premier Charest, and the NDP might vote against the budget)...The Grits are going to try to put it off until we feel the crunch of the US economy which is far worse than even they realize.
I would be ashamed if I were McCain to have 'bush' endorse me...It will do McCain harm!
I would hope that at all costs: M. DIon would avoid the pot holes, and take the time to build a safe highway!!! A little more time!
Besides Canadians are riveted on the US elections, a first since JFK, and I would use my wisdom to build a strong platform campaign, and wait for Canadians to be aware of what is really going on in the harpercrite camp.
Gordo, what ever happened to fair play?
Cheers,
[updated Mon Feb 18 18:33:45 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 18:33
Gordo05
Blossom:
Finally have a little time to reflect on your post and provide some feedback of a more substantive nature. I was interested in reading about Jim Prentice's attempt at painting the Liberals as free-spenders who will plunge the country at least $62.5 billion deeper into debt over the next four years if they follow through on their promises. They even have a 65-page book that outlines the Liberals free-spending commitments made since M. Dion became leader. I guess this is what we can come to expect when the election is eventually called. Who calls a news conference on Sunday, anyway???
I was interested in Liberal finance critic John McCallum's immediate response, saying that the report is a “gross distortion” of his party’s plans. “It’s a $62-billion Conservative lie. I used to be chief economist for the Royal Bank, and I’ve never seen such a shoddy, inaccurate, let alone dishonest, document,” said McCallum in an interview with CTV and the Globe and Mail. He added that if elected, the Liberals top priority would be to balance the budget. “We would phase our plans so as never to go into deficit.”
Ian L. MacDonald has another interesting column in the Gazette which was titled - The election no one wants. (I think I want one, but I guess I don't count.) Anyway, MacDonald reaches the conclusion that with the Bloc Québécois and NDP both itching for an election, it's all on M. Dion's shoulders. I've stated before here on this site that the fate of this parliament is really in M. Dion's hands - or on his shoulders - pick whatever analogy fits. I think with the "blessing" of the savvy M. Chretien, M. Dion has now decided to pull the plug on the budget. So, I say bring it on, and let's rumble.
[updated Mon Feb 18 13:20:15 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 13:20
calmecam
Gordo:
I too saw Mr Prentice's pathetic performance on Question Period... and good on the interviewer for calling him out on his evasiveness.
Mr Prentice repeated about five times that the goal of the document was, to expose the fact that Liberals want to send us further in debt -- ridiculous; and talk about sticking to your media lines! Sheeesh!
Every time he repeated the point, I kept hearing: "The goal of this report is to stick it to the Liberals".
By the time the interview was over, Prentice's number had jumped from $62.5 billion to about $95 billion.
Considering the Chrétien-Martin legacy of deficit-fighting, do Conservatives really believe that Canadians would buy this argument? If there are only two argument the Liberals can take to the bank, they would be: 1) They will be competent managers of the economy and 2) Dion will do something concrete about the environment.
Prentice spent the entire time of his interview speaking about what the Liberals want to do for Canada, and 0 time speaking of what the Conservatives want to do for Canada... even after repeated prompting.
The first sign that you are in trouble in politics is when people start laughing at you rather than with you. The second sign is
when you start speaking more of the other guy than of yourself.
Both are currently taking place with the Conservatives.
Though I would love the by-elections to take place so Mr. Dion could get the "bump" that goes with it, I too say "bring it on!".
I sense that though Canadians are fine with the concept of PM Harper being kept "in check" with a minority government, once the chance to give him the boot becomes real, they'll jump at the opportunity. I know I would.
Harper staked his first mandate and leadership on a securing a majority next time. Anything less than a majority win for Harper will prompt a leadership review, and eventually his ouster (there is no way in hell Conservative MPs will remain muzzled for another two years)!
The campaign will be a fantastic contrast of styles and I have the sense it will be a "tortoise-and-the-hare" affair. PM Harper will have a bombastic launch, but a month's worth of daily strident screaming will result in Canadians tuning the Conservatives out, to listen to Dion, who will likely be more calm and poised. Slow and steady wins the race...
[updated Mon Feb 18 15:57:16 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 15:57
blossom
Hi Gordo05,
Yes, I heard, and mentioned in my two minute ago email to you. John McCallum set the record straigh today, and I agree with him that any one paying attention to the harpercrite rot!!!
I mentioned to you in my last email that since 1929 the conservatives had had deficit budgets, and with the Grits, harper inherited what he is throwing away for us.
Remember that I told you that I turned Jim Prentice off yesterday, because he refused to answer any pertinent questions asked by Bob Fife, it was even underlined during the interview, and Mr. Prentice just rudely continued to lie to us.
When have you ever heard a pertinent response from the harpercrite gov/t, or gotten transparency or accountability since they were voted into office.
When they are not muzzled, they go on this tirade of blaming the Grits, or anyone and anything that falls their way.
On climate change, when Rona Ambrose left for the airport that evening to the summit, she promised all that she was going to do, and was ousted out of her Ministry when she returned. The world rediculed her. She took the flack for Harper.
John Baird in Bali kept his job, but lost us our upstanding reputation, by siding with the 'bush' alaternative.
The Financie Minister has been rediculed, and will be ousted when the Canadian economy flinches for not addressing what is coming...
I always like to figure out what Mr. MacDonald's real game is?He usually takes the option of not being too controversial, doesn't make waves, and wouldn't always bet on his horses!
I also want an election, but I do not want to be bullied into one. There is an enormous cost to this, and as pointed out by Mr. MacDonald, I don't hear cries asking for one.
We have enough of our nationalist dissidents out here, who on a daily basis are trying to shake another election, in less than one year, and the repurcussions fo a Federal election, at this time, and Mr. Harper should consider this fact, could be very damaging in our provoince.
Mr. Harper has rendered Parliament dysfunctional, and this is not Democratic, and the way it should be!
The smart thing would be for all those who have muscular leverage to call Mr. Harper to attention, to do the job that he asked, when he asked to be elected. He had not asked for a majority, and he got more than he deserved!
Keep thinking, and writing...Your exposes are terrific, and honest.
It's quite a background that you have. I am impressed! And I really enjoy exchanging ideas with someone who is intelligent.
This is how we learn!
[updated Mon Feb 18 19:01:45 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 19:01
calmecam
Blossom:
With all due respect, I think that the cost of an election (about $300 - 400 million) is totally negligeable when compared to the costs of allowing Flaherty to be in control of the nation's purse for another second!
It most certainly pales in comparison to the cost resulting from the hit Canada's reputation has taken abroad since they've come into power. We've probably lost that much and more already from decreased trade with China alone based on the Conservative's ham-handed approach to diplomacy.
Bullied into one or not, any election that will result in the ouster of Harper and the Mike Harris Conservatives currently in caucus/Cabinet who opportunistically jumped on Harper's bandwagon after being fired in Ontario, will likely wind up saving us money in the end.
Bring it on before Flaherty leaves us with another deficit like he (and Eves) did in Ontario!
[updated Mon Feb 18 19:55:02 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 19:55
blossom
Hello Calmecam,
Of course you are right...
The cost of an election is not the issue, but it is the results of such an uncalled for election. One that is being trumped, with traps and pitfalls, and, who is really paying attention to the facts, and details?
We shall be in another deficit if Harper continues to be at the helm, but although I am very optimistic about a change of gov/t. I would like to have assurances that M. Dion's party is behind him, that they have the funds to raise a good electoral campaign, and that there will be high voter participation.
I just do not see it in this province...???
I heard a report last evening that is worrysome...M. Dion stands alone, and if you consider that he is constantly being brow-beaten at every occasion, and everything that he says is twisted, with not much media backing - for they have also fallen into Harper's trap at constantly knocking him; at least it gives the party time to perhaps, play smart, and come together. The Party is split from within, and if S. Dion takes the challenge on his own, although I am still optimistic that the Grits would at least gain a small majority gov/t. I don't have a crystal ball.
With a little more time, perhaps Canadians will see the wisdom in overturning this present gov/t., but in Qc. it is not yet obvious.
Mr. Harper's MP's in the adq should be a warning to all, however, the adq would probably not even be elected to an opposition party again. Outside of Montreal, the rest of the province seem to favour the pq and the bloq.
Should M. Dion call an election, you can bet your boots that I shall also be out there helping!
The state of the US policies and the mess that the republicans have gotten them into should be great warning to us, and remind us that we need an immediate change of government.
The decisions that the harper gov/t has taken on our behalf, and without our consent is appalling.
[updated Tue Feb 19 12:12:26 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 12:12
calmecam
Blossom:
I have to say that you are more optimistic than I am about the possibility of a Liberal majority at this time. A minority is only 50/50 in my books right now.
We could very well wind up with a Parliament that is more fractured, comprised of a few more Dippers, Bloquistes, and maybe even the first Green MP (or two, which would be good for the country), and a few less members of the big two.
Mr. Dion most definitely does not stand alone. Anybody loyal to Chrétien owes Dion a bit of a debt given his work on the Clarity Act.
The situation is not ideal, but then again, it is not ideal for the Conservatives either. Sure they've got lots of money, but that only goes so far given they are not connecting with much of the electorate. Their attempt to buy Quebec in the last budget (with our tax dollars instead of the dough in their party coffers mind you) failed miserably.
Quebec doesn't much appreciate PM Harper declaring the fiscal imbalance fixed. No objective number, to which both sides could agree, to evaluate the fiscal imbalance was ever stated and Quebec was claiming much more than the near $4 billion Harper shuffled their way.
The current ADQ situation reveals another Conservative lie -- I mean "misspeak" -- namely, PM Harper's claim that the country is united and federalist forces are on top in Quebec.
Mario Dumont said from the get-go "don't make the error of mistaking me for a federalist", and with the Quebec Liberals in a minority govt position, I've always failed to see just how having more members in l'Assemblée Nationale from sovereignist and autonomist parties than of a federalist party made it such that the federalists were winning. (!!??!!)
After all, the difference between an autonomist and a separatist is that the autonomist is defeatist about the possibility of separation ever taking place, and therefore has decided that rather than spending 50% of their resources trying to build winning conditions, they'd make better use of those resources by concentrating 100% of the time on extorting the federal government.
The resurgence of the Bloc confirms that PM Harper spoke just a little too soon.
I also agree with you that Dumont's future is pretty much forever limited. He'll never live down the "girouette nationale" (National weathervane) moniker.
Ironically enough, we could also call PM Harper a weathervane. He pretty much goes as the wind blows too.
By the way, did you see Don Martin's most recent column? He finally stated out loud what I've been saying for some time. The Conservatives were dividing Canadian ethnic communities into "good Canadians" and "bad Canadians".
According to Martin: "Still, it's a game (winning the ethnic vote) the Conservatives are determined to win -- and some Liberals believe they're losing. Roughly 40 swing ridings have decisive ethnic populations. And if the names are any indication, the Conservatives will contest more than 30 ridings with visible minority candidates on their ballot."
"Sources admit the Conservatives are selective. Chinese, Koreans, Hindus, Jews, Persians, Italians, and Vietnamese are top priorities. But Muslims and Sikhs? Well, not so much."
Now we know why the Jewish community received holiday greetings but Muslims did not, proving once again that PM Harper is NOT the PM of ALL Canadians.
It strikes me as eerie that, considering the atrocities of WW2, that PM Harper and the Conservatives could not predict that keeping a faith-based list of names of people of the Jewish faith could be somehow irksome to them!
Sigh...
[updated Tue Feb 19 15:36:50 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 15:36
Gordo05
Blossom:
I don't know how intelligent I am - I was once a "card-carrying" member of the Progressive Conservative Party. But that was another time and another era. As Calmecam pointed out in a response to one of our exchanges, these "new" Conservatives are not Tories and they bear a very faint resemblance to the old Progressive Conservative Party. Along with my usual e-mails this morning I received an e-mail from Doug Finley, with the subject line: Reserve your election sign today! The first thing that popped into my head was 'Who is Doug Finley?' Then when I opened it I realized that the Conservative Party still has me on ther data bank of party members and Doug Finley is the National Campaign Director of the Conservative Party of Canada. The e-mail goes like this: "Dear friend: Stephene Dion is threatening to bring down the Government in 2008.
Show your support for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party by reserving your local election sign today.
Once the election has been called, a local volunteer will deliver the sign to your home."
Then I'm asked to make a choice between - "Yes, I'd like to reserve my sign in advance."
or - "Yes, I would like to reserve my sign in advance and make a contribution to help pay for the sign and other campaign costs."
Needless to say I've deleted it. Just like I'd love to delete Harper and his crooked cronies fom the Canadian political landscape. I'd still love to see an election called for either April 7 or April 14. I firmly believe that if M. Dion does not go this time (over the budget) then he will live to regret it. Bob Rae obvioulsy has another agenda in mind when he urged Dion to hold off - he wants to win the by-election. But I think he can put off his celebration for another few more weeks.
This blog has actually been my own "Road to Damascus" I've fully switched from being a fairly cool supporter of the Conservatives (I voted CPC last time) to being a rabidly anti-Harperite. Sharing ideas with others like yourself, Calmecam, Parnel and reading the posts from Hollinm have convinced me that we really need a change. I think Liberals have learned a valuable lesson, and while Dion wasn't necessarily everyone's first choice, he's not really a bad choice. He will grow into the job and I think he'll grow on Canadians, whereas Harper just grates on Canadians. Enough from me for now. Take care.
[updated Tue Feb 19 08:14:15 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 08:14
blossom
Hello Gordo05,
I just love reading your thoughts, views, and opinions. I also respect your candor, and your insights, and your depictions, that denote your thought processes. I like your self-discovery journey that have brought you to this change.
IT is the why's that makes us journey into those new roads that lead us to discover, and the old saying goes,"Only fools never change their minds"! Without blinkers, and an open mind, we arrive at conclusions that satisfy some part of our personality, and will enivetibly come to another fork in the road, and again, we must make choices.
Every day of our life, we make choices, some unconsciously, and important changes, can alter our lives.
This is not just in politics.
The first question that I asked myself was who is Mr. Finley? Yes, I did hear about certain chosen people having received certain election props...Just shows how desperate they are!
I am in agreement with all of your reflections, and can only add that I believe M. Dion will get his chance, and that we shall welcome him as a Leader, who has unfortunately been undermined from within his own divided party, who from the word "go' has had very few backing him, especially, those who in his Party, who haven't yet accepted that they lost the Leadership, and instead of concentrating on getting, at least their party ready, were divisive for their own plans and dreams.
From personal experience, I had discovered that "you can't take on City Hall on your own", and M. Dion is wise enough to recognize this.
He was smart enough not to take the bait, and wait for the right moment, when it will resonate with the electorate.
No one has seemed to show much genorosity towards M. Dion, and the monies that are being spent on very unartistic, and lacking in taste ads, must be very fearful of this opponent.
PS: William F. Buckey Jr. died at 82 today, and although a staunch conservative, a Yale man, who at least, developed minds, and thought others to think and search with one's mind. Perhaps you new him?
Sorry for not answering immediately.
I like your ideas, and I like the way that you express them; with a lot of honesty.
[updated Thu Feb 28 00:29:30 -0500 2008]
28 Feb 00:29
Gordo05
I was wondering where everyone went. There have been very few posts here for quite some time. I'm also wondering why Nik hasn't started a new discussion as he has some new numbers - his latest poll shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 34% each. His is about the only poll that shows things that close. Some have the Conservatives within striking distance. I, unfortunately, am SO disappointed with M. Dion for waffling on the budget. I heard him on the radio yesterday afternoon saying that he doesn't like the budget, but they will still "find a way" to not vote against it - either by abstaining or whatever. I'm fairly disillusioned with him. I think too many people are growing convinced now that he has no backbone whatsoever. Apparently there are a number of "hawks" in the caucus that want to go - particularly Iggy. There is also talk that the Liberals aren't expected to do as well as they were expecting in the upcoming four byelections. They were expected to win three of the four and now - according to the Globe and Mail, they may win only two - the Globe suggests they are in trouble in Vancouver Quadra. Perhaps I am much too impatient for an election - but I have to be honest - I'm not a happy camper.
[updated Thu Feb 28 07:20:06 -0500 2008]
28 Feb 07:20
blossom
Hello Gordo05,
I just responded, and lost my whole email!
This one is going to be short!
I was just as disappointed as you, however, there would be no logic to calling an election at this time. We do have election fatigue, and console yourself with the fact that the harpercrites took all of the Liberal ideas, and put them in their budget.
The pq wants to call another election in the same year, because we are running a very limited Provincial budget, and they are asking for the moon, and monies that we do not have.
Since the advent of the harpercrite gov/t. I guess that you have noticed that all is in disaray. They House is dysfundtional, and nothing is smooth.
I can never disagree with you, and I totally agree with all that you are stating, However, be patient my friend, perhaps Canadians will wake-up, and when they show an appetite for a real substantive change, especially when it hits their pcokets, then perhaps they will call for an election, and let their concerns be known at the polls.
The medias and the Press want a change, but constantly repeat the same imbicilities that they hear, and I see very few active, creative brain cells around.
It's always more of the same!
Remember when Gary Kasporov lost the chess game to the "Blue" IMB computer...
For instance, a poll was just taken in Russia, and only 18% of voters said that they preferred keeping Putin as PM indefinately, and Medveyev as President, because of the economic tides, whereas Democracy and free speech was far less important to them. That, in itself, my friend, is a huge statement, but shows the new mentality of our generations.
Margaret Mead, Anthropologist, was quoted as saying that it is only a few, intelligent, and very passionate people who can make change, and make a big difference on this planet. We see such individuals, even children who perform great feats, but it is not mainstreem.
We are no longer encouraged to think, and decipher issues for ourselves, but we have become lazy, and are learning to repeat what others tell us, and how we should think!
It is only when important events happen, that people seem to gather, and reflect, otherwise they seem to want to go about their own business, and let others do the serious thinking on their behalf.
I am grateful that we do not always have to harp on the same questions and issues, but can bring to light any matter of significance that we choose on this blog.
I prefer to look at it this way, and it gives those who wish, the opportunity to bring subjects that we might not otherwise have the opportunity to discuss.
This gives us "champ libre" to exchange our ideas and opinions, and to get away from the bantering of who's best, which we have been advocating ad nauseum.
Keep posting, and that's what counts. Those who would want to, can always join in, and bring their ideas.
I am in a very positive mode these days, and am sure that M. Dion knows what he is doing...he has great instincts!
Hope that I have cheared you up, and it's too bad that I lost my first post, but it all came out like a deluge, therefore, I lost my first train of thought.
I agree with everything that you said, except that I see a better future for the Liberals; that is if "Iggy" and Bob Rae stop thinking of their own personal futures.
If they do not get behind M. Dion, it could be a very long time before they return to power! I just hope that they smarten-up!
Cheers,
[updated Thu Feb 28 22:20:36 -0500 2008]
28 Feb 22:20
Bernie
Hi Blossom
Another great post. You made some insightful comments.
However I have different opinions re Liberals and elections. I want an election not for "elections" sake but to show we object to this government. The same government may win again but so be it. At least many of us will be satisfied that we let them know how we feel about them. Money is not the most important thing in life. When you consider government revenues, 300 or 400 million is peanuts. Everyday the government wastes more than that amount and we don't here a lot of objection to that.
It's not that I want an election so much as that I want to express my objection to this @#$%^^&* government.
The Liberals by caving in to party interests and not that of Canadians have lost their opportunity to garner my vote. I was prepared to vote for them if they had shown some principle and voted against one of the last three issues, if not all three. I have respect for Dion but the party is disfunctional. I place a lot of blame on Ignatieff. I have written them and told them my position. All I get back is the standard form letter. (or email)
I've reached the point now that I would vote for anyone who opposes this government. Where's the Rhinocerus Party when we need them :-)
I'll comment on some of your excellent points at a later time.
[updated Sat Mar 01 08:44:00 -0500 2008]
01 Mar 08:44
blossom
Hi Bernie,
As usual, hearing from you has cheered me up!
I feel exactly the way that you do, and Gordo05,..
However, think about this, if I may suggest.
"Wisdom" is a quality that one seldom hears especially in politics. We hear about instincts.
Last week, the Globe stated that M. Dion was wise to refrain from an election at this time. I agree with this.
Qc. has debilitatingly fractured M. Dion all of this past week with malicisiousness, and the pq is threathening to bring-down the Provincial Liberal budget March 13th...
I think that if there is enough voter appreciation in Alberta that the Liberals could win.
I blame the Liberal party for what is happening...
Instead of being totally behind their Officially elected Leader, it is thought that "Iggy" and Bob Rae have their own ambitions at heart.....
The Grits will wake-up to quite a surprise when they realize that outside Qc. M. Dion is very well perceived, and what is happening, truly not fair.
Should the party disenbowel M. Dion's Leadership, they have been notified that I shall vote for Liz May!!!
From what we are seeing in the US medias, and about their forecasts for Hillary; they are learning their lesson that they should never jump the gun, and eradicate a virtual contender such as Barack Obama, whom I believe, will make history!
With a Vice-Pres. such as Bill Richardson, and all of his extraordinary Foreign Relations' experience this would make for their dream team.
With M. Dion' s vision for Canada, and integrated with the new President of the US, who not only consider a vision for our mutual Countries, but on the Foreign scene also, and for much more Diplomatic Engagement with other governments, we might just get a new world politics, whereby we take care of our own business at home, and create a better world for the rest of our planet.
Andrew Coyle of MacClean's said it all on "At Issue" this week-end. He spoke with good judgment, and looked angry enough to please me.
The medias, the Press, radio is all conservative talk, and don't you dare try to put a word/thought in edgewise is it doesn't resound with their politics, and views. Conservatives are punitive, disruptive, and do not stand for others' opinions. It is all about their agendas, and if you are in their way, they will silence one.
How do you feel about torture? It goes against the Geneva Conventions, but the harpercrites are handing over the prisoners to the Afghans again...I thought that this policy was ended?
The alledged "Cadman Affair" is already in the hands of the RCMP, and will perhaps open a can of worms, whereby, that will keep them silent for a while.
However, I also find it deplorable that we must continually bring down governments, who because they refuse to work with opposition parties, even in a minority gov./t. can inflict such bad policies to our Country, deprive the Opposition parties of voting on confidence votes only, progate Parliament whenever they deem, but that we have to bring them down on scandals...
This is not my way of describing how I understand "Democracy" to be...Governments are elected to do the job, and not play politics.
Putin got himself re-elected as PM, indefinately, and the medias are totally subjugated by their gov/t, so that the Russians know little about their gov/t in power, and consequently, have very low voting participation.
I am happy that some of us are utterly fed-up, and would use our voting power to acknowledge other parties, if only to defeat those who would abuse their powers whilst in government.
As an afterthought, again this week, the Courts have ruled that what Mr. Harper is doing to the Wheat Board, and Barley, is unlawful...
In case a Liberal strategist is paying attention to what is being posted, I shall tell the Grits that they should get behind their Leader, and loyally so, because they do not seem to realize that except for Qc., they would probably win an election at this time...The problem is not with the voters, nor M. Dion, but with the party who seems to want to control their future...If they continue, I see their future as a dim one!
I hope that they wisen-up, and get smart, and play the game right, and soon! I think that they are totally blind, and deaf to what we voters are telling them!
I suspect that they did not want to get ready, because they want to choose another Leader, and that this will be their downfall. No one will pay attention to them any more.
You bet that I am angry! Join the club!
Take care Bernie, and nice to hear that you are another participant in our club of disatisfaction!
[updated Sun Mar 02 19:34:21 -0500 2008]
02 Mar 19:34
Bernie
Blossom
Political wisdom seems to be an ozymoron. They are so sure that they are wise when say or do "smart" things to promote themselves or their parties.
They are deceiving themselves. If they only had the humility to forget themselves and focus on the people they are supposed to represent and do exactly and only what their constituents want then they would get elected and reelected as long as they wished
They think it wise to make themselves look good or more often to make the other look bad. Then they can't understand why they are not successful and when they are not they tend to blame on anyone or anything rather than on themselves where it belongs.
However I shouldn't be talking about wisdom. I was hiding in the cellar when wisdom was being distributed. I've been spending the rest of my life trying to grab little snippets of wisdom here and there. If I live long enough I may become half-wise.
I can see why some are tired of election. Alberta is having one today. I wonder what will happen there. Since there are so many conservative minded people there I can't Stelmak losing, although a redustion of seats is very possible. I don't think Alberta was ever anything else but Conservative. Social Credit is another form of conservatism. I wonder how long will it take the NDP to take power there. :-)
And I didn't know that there maybe a possibility of an election in Quebec.No wonder the people are getting overly sated with politics.
Some that you wrote in a previous post grabbed my attention. And you were so right. That is this culture of fear and how politicians use it to further their ambitions. Unscrupulous politicians look for tramatic or dramatic events to habg their political careers on. Or should I say fear created by these events.
Despicable politicians sek them out and sometimes create them for their own purpose. The Bush administration created Iraq for that purpose. Some comspiracy theorists believe they if not created 9/11 at least knew about it beforehand and did nothing to stop it. (BTWI don't subscribe to that theory)
Have you read "Shock Therapy" by Naomi Klein? Your library should have it and you should read it. I have several books on the same subject.
I watched "At Issue' and I agreed with Andrew Coyne. Normally I don't I find him too conservative in his thinking. Maybe he is melllowing because I find myself agreeing with him in some of the recent columns that he wrote in Macleans. I was suprised at the other two panelists. They seemed not to have the repulsion of wrong-doing as I do. They thought it wasn't important.
I detest those who make statements that they know are false. What they say is a lie but they say it in way that is different from what is real and therefore deceive gullible people who don't know the difference. McKay, Van Loan,
Jason Kenney, Hawn, Nicholson are particularly guilty of this. Of course, they doing this under the direction of Harper.
Former PM Mulroney was generally known as "Lyin' Brian".
Harper will be known as "Deceivin' Stephen"
I hope we can get better governance from our politicians and that we can move Canada forward to a better destination. We have to keep hoping.
[updated Mon Mar 03 08:29:18 -0500 2008]
03 Mar 08:29
blossom
Hi Bernie,
Well we know what happens to those who vote for the welfare of their constituencies, such as MP Bill Casey...In this harpercrite gov/t one is whipped into being subdued, "sued, confidence votes that affect our daily lives, or choose to be distracted with potential elections.
As for M. Mulroney, and his Blarney, I would have slapped him with a supbeona, if only for the show!!! I would have expected this much.
It reminds me somewhat of the pq in Qc.
I heard someone say today, that if harper wants to rule as an Autocrat, that he should replace Castro in Cuba!!!
I was also pleased to hear Lou Dobbs on CNN decry that the Americans are not as blind, or stupid as their government would let us believe!
Personally, I think that the average citizens usually gets it right, but does not have the power, and backing to change things around, and that we do not get the necessary support
from our ridings, because very few politicians are in tune, and far too busy with their own personal agendas. You have a few whom I exempt, but right now, I do not know of any.
They are there just before an election!
I don't blame all politicians, and in all parties, there are some favorates, except perhaps in this present gov/t.
We speak of women in gov/t, and I agree, but when Helena Georgis leaked the roadmap to Afghanistan, when S. Dion and M. Ignatieff went, I thought this to be scandalous.
The recent alledged leak that this gov/t has made and meddled with NAFTA in order to create chaos in the Democratic party, and against Barack Obama, and aiding the republicans, is something that is totally unacceptable. It has happened before, but this is creating a real issue for Mr. Obama, and both of our Countries.
The alledged Caldman Affair is already in the hands of the RCMP, and although we do not know where this is going to lead to, it would have been wiser to answer in Parliament, rather than to threathen to sue again...
What we are noticing with the conservatives, is that there is not much paper trail, and all is rhetorical, and behind closed doors...
I find this to be alarming, and affects our Democratic rights. For a PM whose platform was about Accountability, and Transparency, I haven't seen any of it yet!
I see huge sums of monies trojaned, but always to this governments' advantage.
How many Premiers of different Provinces disagree with this harpercrite gov/t., his policies, and his lack of exchange? I am paying attention!
Only 14% of farmers are against the traditional wheat board! Yet, Mr. Harper wants to disenbowel it...
I think that the Alberta election turn-out will be weak because Albertans are disatisfied with Ed Stelmach, who was the third choice candidate. Many are worried about the oil sands, the future shortage of water, and the carcenegic growth rate. They want further studies, and a slow down until the truth comes to light about those dangers. They are also worried about a nuclear plant built in their backyard.
Nothing sure about Qc elections yet, it could be a strategy for the pq to become the official opposition, rather than the adq, but it's political games again, just before the provincial budget.
As I have said to you before, if I could move and immediately out of this province; I would do so!
Bernie, in your list you forgot to mention John Baird, and Jim Flaherty!!! Just thought that you would want me to add it to yours!
I never take Don Martin seriously, but Chantal Hebert, from the Toronto Star, did disappoint me, although she did have a point.But she could have tried harder.
I always wish that Susan Delacourt of the Globe would actually accentuate what she always seems afraid to say, with a little more bravado!
I shall be posting Nik later on, and you will understand why...Perhaps you will want to join in with my comments.
Thanks for your great response.
[updated Mon Mar 03 19:49:20 -0500 2008]
03 Mar 19:49
Bernie
Blossom
I just read your post and the one to Nik I'll reply to the latter first
When you mentioned Mr Adler's name I had no idea who you were talking about. I was thinking maybe some unknown (to me) politician. Then, after a while, I recalled travelling with my son in his car. There was a talk show on his radio. It happened 3or 4 times. I believe that guy's name was Adler. I remember saying to my son 'how can you listen to that crap" He replied "I just listen for entertainment. When Howard Stern is not on".
I recall he was rude, ignorant, nothing of good judgement, common sense, of any value whatever. So I assume my son was right. He was only for entertainment, a provocateur just trying to get attention, catering to the low-intelligence audience. I suppose there are enough of those out their so he can claim an audience and justify his getting paid. I am surprised Nik would agree to appear on his show.
I would like to talk to some of those talk show people even those who have a different philosophy than I, but they must be sensible and rational, something Adler is not (if he is the person I'm thinking about) I would have no difficult in pointing out how wrong they are if they followed logical thought. I guess if they were logical or rational they wouldn't have their programs. Many don't want to listen to logical thought. It takes deep thinking and most are too lazy to do that. They take the line of least resistance.
I wonder how many of those idiots have their own shows on radio. I listen to CBC so I am not aware of them. I also wonder how many of those who listen to them take them seriously, or do they realize how non-sensical they really are.
I'm know of two on American networks who are of the same ilk, Bill Riley and Ann Coulter. Totally devoid of intelligent comment.
I'll ask my son if he still listens to Adler. If so I'll remind of how hard I tried to raise him as an intelligent and educated citizen and that I didn't know I was such a failure :-)
[updated Tue Mar 04 08:34:36 -0500 2008]
04 Mar 08:34
blossom
Hellooo Bernie,
Absolutely right about Charles Adler, but that your son might be listening to Mr. Adler does not denote anything wrong, or that you have not instituted intelligent and mindfull advice to him. I also always listen to CBC, but sometimes on my walks, I alternate because the sound is so poor on CBC...
It is important also to know what conservatives are saying, and who they agree with, and who's who!!!
Listening to Mr. Adler always reinforces my Liberal stand!!!
Sir Winston Churchill used to say, "Always listen to your enemies, and keep them close in order to know what they are up to"...Make's sense to me. (Not that C. Adler is my enemy).
In the early 1960's the only political jargon was on one station in the US, and it was Larry King, who since, has somewhat polished his act. There isen't that much choice around.
Every time that I listen to pauline marois, of the pq, I get hives!!! but I wan't to hear first-hand what she is up to.
I have stated this before, and on this blog, that listen to who is speaking in the medias, and immediately afterwards, and quite often, when repeated in a simplified manner, a lot is lost in this translation. Conversly, when it is then translated into French, and sometimes much later on, at times I can hardly recognize what had been said by the candidate.
Imagine what is translated from a century ago??? Example: I read three biographies about Ludwig van Beethoven, (the van was added since he was not born of nobility, but aspired to be with the nobility), and I could not recognize the same great musician from one biography to another.
What I forgot to mention, and what really made me angry about this interview with Nik, is that Mr. Adler stated that unless there is a scandal or soap opera in our political scene, that his telephone lines are totally dead!!! I found it disturbing to state such a matter, and think that Canadians are perceived as citizens who do not know what is happening on the political scene...Is Mr. Adler the only affected person in this Country? I see this as being very presumptious!!!
Please, Bernie, do not get emotional towards your son, and the fact that he is listening to current events; is already a good sign that you raised him well, with a good searching/descriminating mind, and that you are a success.
On the other hand, Charles Adler was the only one, other than CBC, to raise awareness and air Pavorotti when he died last summer, and for a few days. This much, I share with him.
I don't listen to Fox tele - ever!!!
I listen to much public television, and especially late at night, one may be enlightened because the medias seem to think that they know their polls' preferences. This is a huge mistake.
There are extraordinary concerts that date way back, before we were even born.
The whole tobacco trial with Congress was ongoing during the night, and for weeks over ten years ago. The lies that were postured was inimaginable. It was that obvious.
I should have stated that he airs on 940AM daily, and should have been clearer about whom I was addressing. Sorry about that.
My point was that I would have liked Nik to respond to Mr. Adler and tell him that, if only for those on his blog, that we were paying attention to the policies, the politics, and although not briefed, had a pretty good idea of what is happening in the government. For the rest of Nik's responses, I agreed, and had already posted about this.
My real point, is that people who have the chance to speak-out, should take the opportunity to do so.
When Mr. Adler is invited on CTV tele, he is more restrained, and one doesn't see him using bad manners. He is smart enough to realize that he is a guest, and must abide by the rules for all who are invited! He knows that he wouldn't get away with his radio act. And, as always, Bernie, you are right, he just tries to stur impetus to his fiesty discussions.
NB: Please, go easy on your son; he sounds as though he likes to get different opinions, has curiosity, and this is good in order to make good, and unbiased judgments. I have the feeling that his judgment is as good as his father's, and that you must be very proud of him!
As they say, if it ain't broke, don't fix it!
[updated Tue Mar 04 13:37:52 -0500 2008]
04 Mar 13:37
Bernie
Hi Blossom
I don't get 940AM. In this area I listen to 970AM . That's NPR, National Public Radio from the US, the same as PBS. But most odten I listen to CBC 99.1 FM here in Toronto. I have never subscribed to paid radio.
I sometimes listen to right wing types just for curiosity or to compare and evaluate my own beliefs. Those who are outside the realm, like Adler I just ignore altogether.
Yesterday I saw the CTV evening news and I heard Mike Duffy. He was so anti Liberal or NDP that he lost any credibility. I always knew him to be conservative and since he is the media so much he has shown restraint in expressing his bias, but yesterday he was ridiculous. I don't mind that except I would like equal time so someone of equal atature come on immediately after and tell the other side. That's how a public can be informed and it's what the media fails to do. One exception is Steve Paikin on TVO.
I don't hear enough indepentent commentry from your province. Mostly what I here isthe rant of politicians and they are generally on espousing their perties' position. I read Chantal Hebert. I used to read William Johnson a lot when he was younger., but he has grown so conservative over the years that now I don't place much value on what he says. He is very intelligent tho, so I use his aregument as a yardstick to measure my own. Much like how I did with William Buckley, except Buckley had a nicer disposition.
I am disappointed with the Liberals concerning their over-reaction to the Cadman affair. They didn't raise such an objection to things they should have like, Afghan, crime bill and the budget. While the Cadman affair is serious it is not something that political parties have not done at every opportunity. All parties have used pressure to get someone to change their vote at an opportune time. We don't know how often there were financial considerations. I guess it seems worse since Harpers big selling point is that he would bring about truth and honesty to government He has shown himself to be no different that any other. But in his defense there is no evidence that he knew exactly what transpired. But of Tom Flannagan had anything to do with it you can rest assured that it was improper.
I feel certain that Cadman was offered money but I don't think that would be half as serious as Afghan or the budget to get upset over.
The interference in US political scene is very serious and heads should roll, but I don't trust Harper to get to the bottom of it. Maybe the RCMP should look at it.
Oh, btw, don't worry about my relationship with my son. He listens to those programs for entertainmment so that later he can talk and laugh about them. He finds them hilarious. We have a lot of fun over it.
After just getting over a big storm now we are expecting another even bigger one. I guess we'll be strombound for the next couple of days. Happy shovelling.
[updated Fri Mar 07 08:52:20 -0500 2008]
07 Mar 08:52
blossom
Hello Bernie,
Pretty soon we shall have to rent :-)space on this blog! -
The Cadman Affair is all important, and all week S. Harper ascerted that he would get to the bottom of this.
PM Harper, all week said that he would get to the bottom of "NAFTAgate, and it is his own three intellegentia, in his own office, who had dealings in these matters...
This was so damaging to the Obama campaign, that he lost three States!!! How much worse can it get when his own Deputy leaks to the Press, and when the Autocrat himself, never engages with the Press and Medias, or only on his terms?
It is argued that this PM wanted to help the republicans - his American counterpart "clone"! This is positively indecent...to try to trump the Democratic elections of our Southern border friends!!! This could have major consequences.
What has happened to this conservative party's platform promises of Transparency and Accountability?
The PM's report card this week, on the Environment was not "A" but "Z".
On Afghanistan not an "A" but a "Z"
and so on and so on, along with all of his broken promises.
Aside from M. Dion, who would deem to affront this no agenda gov/t, it seems that the Nervous Nellies" within the Liberal party are not helping their Leader, and at our expense!
I listen to TVO, PBS and public radio also. CBC. and many of those whom you have mentioned.
I listen to Don Mewnan on CBC at 5:00PM, and Mr. Newsman credentials in great unbiased reporting are above-board. Later, if time permits, I listen to Duff. It's not the same calibre! I want to put in a really good word for Craig Oliver, because I find this media reporter to have such good judgment, and wisdom, nad he is not afraid of honesty, but in a refined manner. He never strikes on anyone, and always openly gives good advice to those who might listen.
Have you noticed how those Canadians who are outside our Country, and waiting for assistance from our government, to repatriate them from jails outside our Country, and even those such as Brenda, are not getting any support from the PMO's office, and Helena Georgias, yes, the same lady who gave away the strategic chart and roadmap, and could have endangered M. Dion's, and "Iggy's" life, when they went to Afghanistan.
The politics out here are enough to make me want to exit out of this province.
Now the pq has come up with an "idea" of having "A Conversation with Canadians" as to why they would want to separate??? marois thinks that she is in the same position as Scotland, whereby, they have had a real discussion about cessation from the UK.
Kosova inflamed the hearts of the die-hard separatists, and see themselves as persecuted by English! They just do not know the meaning of the word genocide!
The adq is of no consequence any more, and PM Harper sought the wrong horse when he gambled with them...
On the Federal side, I have stopped counting the 'broken promises', and since we cannot trust them to tell the truth, and the medias aren't to adamant at figuring it out, I have stated my case.
I agree with you, that I also listen to serious news, and keep tabs with the oppositions, but I am not inspired these days, by any.
For 940AM seriul radio, you can go on the web and see "Coast to Coast" and you will see what band they are on in your area...This is from 10:00PM to 5:00AM, and when they have scientists, physicists, even people who have been in gov/t, or who have insights, and feeders, it can be fascinating. Canadians are phoning in more and more, and you get professionals, scientists, and knowledgeable people who can trump a guest if he is not giving the facts. George Noory has the most comforting, suithing, compassionate voice you can imagine whilst falling asleep. He is the epitome of what hosts should be, and how they should act with everyone's viewpoint. It is a relief from what we get in the medias, politicians, and usual radio hosts.
Everyone is treated with the utmost dignity.
My eyes are starting to cross with this limited space, but I have read everything that you have said carefully, and always enjoy posting with you.
We have to find a way to improve the space for words!
Next time, please answer where no one has responded - there should be more room.
Take care,
[updated Fri Mar 07 19:35:54 -0500 2008]
07 Mar 19:35
Bernie
Gordo05
I guess everyone is waiting for a new topic. I had thought that they were waiting for the budget but since that has past there is still no new posts.
When there was so little action around the crime bill, Afghanistan and then the budget, i was thinking this is going to be a very dull session of Parliament. Then the Cadman story arose. It seems like just when you think everything has settled down something else pops up.
I think the Liberals have lost their last chance to get my vote. I have respect for Dion but I'm afraid the party, or some of its members, just don't have it.
I am afraid that Ignatieff is a cancer in the party. He is putting personal ambition ahead of his party and even more so Canadians at large.
For me that's two down and two to go. Now I must see what the NDP are willing to do. If they can initiate good policies and become more agressive in communicating them and avoid cheap political rhetoric, then they have a chance of getting my vote. Otherwise I'm going Green as a protest vote.
I don't even know if there is a Green candidate in my district.
Anything is better than the other three who are so unrepresentative of the Canadian people.
As for the polls: Yes, I see that too. One of them, Decima, I believe had the Cons. at 39 and the Libs at 27. That's a wide descrepancy from what Nanos has. and others. I certainly have to question that. From my own personal sampling I find them very close.
I'm waiting to see now what comes out of the Cadman fiasco. I am convinced that they did offer Cadman money to vote against the Liberals. Any such offering is a criminal offence. Harper may not have directed or OKed it but he was aware and as head of the party is responsible. The silly excuses made to deny it only makes them look even worse.
Anyway we'll soon see what happens
[updated Sat Mar 01 08:04:10 -0500 2008]
01 Mar 08:04
Bernie
Gordo05
I guess everyone is waiting for a new topic. I had thought that they were waiting for the budget but since that has past there is still no new posts.
When there was so little action around the crime bill, Afghanistan and then the budget, i was thinking this is going to be a very dull session of Parliament. Then the Cadman story arose. It seems like just when you think everything has settled down something else pops up.
I think the Liberals have lost their last chance to get my vote. I have respect for Dion but I'm afraid the party, or some of its members, just don't have it.
I am afraid that Ignatieff is a cancer in the party. He is putting personal ambition ahead of his party and even more so Canadians at large.
For me that's two down and two to go. Now I must see what the NDP are willing to do. If they can initiate good policies and become more agressive in communicating them and avoid cheap political rhetoric, then they have a chance of getting my vote. Otherwise I'm going Green as a protest vote.
I don't even know if there is a Green candidate in my district.
Anything is better than the other three who are so unrepresentative of the Canadian people.
As for the polls: Yes, I see that too. One of them, Decima, I believe had the Cons. at 39 and the Libs at 27. That's a wide descrepancy from what Nanos has. and others. I certainly have to question that. From my own personal sampling I find them very close.
I'm waiting to see now what comes out of the Cadman fiasco. I am convinced that they did offer Cadman money to vote against the Liberals. Any such offering is a criminal offence. Harper may not have directed or OKed it but he was aware and as head of the party is responsible. The silly excuses made to deny it only makes them look even worse.
Anyway we'll soon see what happens
[updated Sat Mar 01 08:04:14 -0500 2008]
01 Mar 08:04
Gordo05
Bernie:
It is so tempting to give up on the Liberals - even before you get a chance to support them. Somehow, that strikes me as politically stupid - on the Liberals part - not yours. I believe, if I am interpreting the various media stories correctly, that campaign manager David Smith is the guy behind the decision to hold their noses and let the budget pass. Dion and Ignatieff have both signaled that they want to go. There was a suggestion by one of the panelists on CTV's Question Period yesterday afternoon that the Cadman affair may change some minds and the Liberals may indeed vote against the budget. But then another panelist suggested that wasn't the case and they wanted to see how the Cadman affair would play itself out and the Liberals would look for something later this spring to possibly bring the government down. However, like you I am growing extremely impatient. Although, I haven't totally given up on them - and I doubt I'll vote Green - I may look at the NDP if they have a decent candidate. In fact, I am going tonight to the Liberal party's nomination meeting for my riding. But I hope they don't nominate all these candidates and have people waiting around for months on end. For me, it's like the old Nike slogan - Just do it!
[updated Mon Mar 03 07:49:47 -0500 2008]
03 Mar 07:49
calmecam
Hi Blossom!
When you asked: "Where is Mr. Harper these days?", it provoked a chuckle.
I remember hearing a story that he was going to Quebec City for Carnaval (to serve pancakes)... I couldn't help thinking that Harper was going there to audition for the role of Bonhomme Carnaval!
[updated Mon Feb 18 15:41:44 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 15:41
blossom
Hi calmecam,
I love your sense of humour!
That and barbecues...
Cheers,
[updated Tue Feb 19 11:32:38 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 11:32
calmecam
Thanks, Blossom!
But if we're playing "I'll take Where Are They Now? for $600, Alex!", the answer would be "John Baird".
[updated Tue Feb 19 15:38:44 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 15:38
calmecam
Your comment about calling this new band of Conservatives "Tories" is bang on!
I've been writing to the media for two years asking hosts and journalists to NOT use the word "Tory" with this bunch of people, but to say "Conservatives". These are not the good old-fashioned Progressive Conservatives we've grown to know over the years. There's nothing progressive about this bunch.
When the media uses the word "Tory", it heaps on Harper and his ilk all the achievements and accomplishments of Progressive Conservatives throughout the years. It is an insult to their legacy.
This is precisely why PM Harper was so quick to embrace Mulroney, particularly around the time he was being honoured as the Greenest PM in Canadian history. The PM of Canada's New Government wanted to wrap himself in all previous Tory environmental achievements to mask his own failings.
Now with the whole Mulroney-Schreiber debacle, this has exploded in his face, after which Harper dumped Mulroney like he was the human equivalent of Kleenex.
This is a pattern for PM Harper who first sucked up to Dumont, then to Charest (and slighting McGuinty in the process), then back to Dumont right before the doo-doo hit the proverbial fan, and what is happening now? He's trying to cozy up to Charest again.
There IS one way in which our current PM is transparent and it isn't on policy, finance, torture, or accountability...
Aforementioned comments about Peter van Loan's tell (his twitching eyebrow drives me nuts, as does his smug grin when he lies) had me in stitches. The other Conservative who needs to be deposed of quite quickly is the vile Pierre Poilièvre. There is nothing that comes of this MP's mouth that does not make my skin crawl.
[updated Mon Feb 18 15:36:44 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 15:36
Gordo05
Calmecam:
You've been away for awhile. Missed your posts. I saw Maxim Bernier interviewed on NewsWorld the other evening. I didn't know too much about this guy. They say that Dion has trouble with English. At least I can understand Dion. But Bernier was totally indecipherable to me. I am not anti-French or anti-French language. In fact I speak French at work on occasion and I'm sure my French is as bad as his English. But talk about calling the kettle black. It is unfortunate - but I think a reality - that the next election will be vicious - especially with the attack ads coming from the Conservatives. It'll be the same kind of mentality that saw the ad that made fun of Chretien's facial disfigurement (if one could call it that). I believe, however, that the more scorn the Conservatives heap on Dion and the Liberals, the more Canadians will be turned off by them. The latest polling numbers look much better for the Liberals than the Conservatives, especially when you break them down by region. Conservatives will be shut out in Atlantic Canada - they might win four seats down here (and none in Newfoundland-Labrador). Quebec will be a mixed bag and could well come down to the hard work of local candidates. Ontario is going to be the real battleground and the Liberals are clearly way out front there. The West is solidly Conservative (poor souls) but you could see some Liberal breakthroughs in Saskatchewan and BC. Manitoba will continue to send some NDPers to the House. I think the Liberals have a really good chance of knocking Harper off his pedestal and - I believe it was you who pointed this out - Harper will be toast if he doesn't deliver a majority - and that's why the stakes are so high for him, and why this expected campaign will be so vicious. Stay tuned!
[updated Tue Feb 19 08:33:37 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 08:33
calmecam
Hi Gordo:
For some reason the RSS feed about this new subject didn't come to my inbox. It was only when I saw Nik on CTV that the bell rang in my head that it was time for me to come back here for a look-see.
I fully agree with your assessment of the double-standard between Bernier and Dion's command of English. That said, Bernier has often been trounced has having no substance. I like to call him the Minister of Looking Cute in a Suit -- that's about all we get from him. After all, if Politics truly is show business for ugly people, Bernier was sorely miscast (lol - I kill me sometimes)!
I also agree with your assessment of how the country is breaking down vote-wise. I made a similar comment in another post on this page.
Building on your final point of the stakes being so high for Harper as he needs a majority this time around, I fully agree that the Conservative campaign will be vicious.
It fact, it has already started with Prentice's hilarious and strident statements and the attack ad. For one, his costing methodology assumes that the Liberals will eliminate child poverty in one year (!?!)... and I'm pretty sure that it doesn't "assume" that there will be any cost savings, increased tax revenue from doing business in a sound manner, or new revenues from exportation of any newly developed Canadian know-how that could emerge from the Liberal spending priorities.
PM Harper will be cranking up the volume as the campaign goes on, and eventually he'll be tuned out as he turns Canadians off.
All Dion has to do is look into the camera and calmly state that the Conservative position is misinformed/disingenuous for x, y, z reasons. The contrast of Dion's affable nature and the Harper's street brawling style will be enough to draw people to Dion.
The fact that the stakes are so high for Harper exponentially increases the odds of another Conservative slip-up, on the scale of the Chrétien disfigurement blunder.
When the stakes are high, one takes more risks, and we all know what happens to Harper and the Conservatives when they can't control the script/message: implosion!
[updated Tue Feb 19 15:55:25 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 15:55
Gordo05
Calmecam --- I was truly disheartened when I saw the national media stories yesterday that suggested Dion is rethinking the idea of pulling the plug on the Conservative budget. I know there's the arguement that one can't really decide to vote against an issue like a budget if one hadn't seen it - but people have to start asking how long Dion and the Liberals are going to continue to prop up this charade of a government? L. Ian MacDonald, columnist with the Montreal Gazette (which I read regularly online), has some interesting comments today in his column entitled "Mood swings hurt Dion's credibility" -- MacDonald hits it right on the head when he writes that the Liberal leader's threats to defeat the government are wearing thin. He starts by issuing the following bulletin: "This just in: Stéphane Dion threatens not to bring down the government over the budget."
As a newby Liberal, I must say I'm getting more that a little peaved with all these antics. Come on man, show some backbone! At first glance, Dion would appear to be coming to his senses, and climbing in from the ledge. Just because the media mob is yelling "jump" is no reason for him to do so. But then, it's early days. There are two weeks left before the vote. Plenty of time for him to change his mind yet again. Which is getting to be a problem for Dion. He has got to stop having these mood swings in public. There is now an established pattern of Dion threatening to defeat the government, and then retreating in the face of opposition from the Liberal caucus, or his own advisers, or the apparent apathy of voters to an early election. Yet Jean Chrétien, who won three consecutive Liberal majorities, reportedly advised Dion to pull the election trigger, partly because this constant vacillation was hurting him. So Dion goes back and forth on this. It all depends on what day of the week it is. Or the last person he spoke to. Or his own sense that just as he won the Liberal convention as a dark horse, so he can take the country by surprise, if not by storm, in an election. All of which is unfortunately playing right to the tag line of the Conservative attack ad: Stéphane Dion - not a leader. What Dion should be saying is that the Liberals will bring down the government, at a moment, and on an issue, of their choosing. And I agree with MacDonald's suggestion that right now, Dion is playing a game he can't win.
[updated Wed Feb 20 07:43:00 -0500 2008]
20 Feb 07:43
Gordo05
Then again, there's another train of thought that strongly recommends that the Liberals back-off completely on their threats to bring down the government - claiming that the opportunities are nothing more than election trip-wires that have been set by Harper. The Liberals have been forgetting the formula for winning elections that was so shrewdly delivered time and time again by the old Rainmaker, Keith Davey. Davey would perhaps recommend that Dion simply exploit the fact Prime Minister Harper has trapped himself in his own fixed-election-date web, ceding the timing of the next election to the opposition. Davey would likely advise Dion to make Harper repudiate the law or keep governing until October 2009 if that's what it takes to be ready. Borrow a page from the politics of hope and inspiration south of the border. Stop listening to the opinion leaders and the special interests. Listen to Canadians -- on Afghanistan, on rebuilding the social safety net, on creating a more equal society. In other words, on keeping left of centre. Nik Nanos has shown here that public opinion is turning against slice-and-dice, wedge-issue politics, hurting the Conservatives' core strategy. He further believes the next election will polarize Canadians between Harper and Dion. Nik suggests Dion's strategic alliance with Green Leader Elizabeth May "could make a big difference in a very close race." That remains to be seen, but I really think it won't hurt him.
In an exchange between Blossom and myself on Monday here I referred to the opportunity for the Dion Liberals to exploit the chasm that should exist between themselves and the Harper Conservatives. That opportunity came Sunday evening. Ever eager to awe the media and intimidate their opponents, the Conservatives showcased their flashy headquarters, bulging party coffers and insatiable appetite for attack ads. The master of ceremonies for this latest extravaganza of hype and bile was Industry Minister Jim Prentice. It's a sign of the Conservatives' growing desperation over their stagnant poll numbers that they would use one of the most moderate and credible cabinet members to be ringmaster.
The partisan nastiness probably repelled more voters than it impressed. To his credit, Prentice looked anything but happy, clutching In Search of Priorities, his party's parody of the Liberals' Red Book election manifestos. According to the Conservatives, the Liberals would rack up a combined deficit of $62.5 billion over the next four years. Liberal finance critic John McCallum labelled it "a big lie" designed to hide the Conservatives' own fiscal mismanagement.
The new attack ad builds on the theme of its predecessors, showing a stream of unflattering pictures of the Liberal leader to claim he's weak and then massaging one of his quotes into an outright fabrication.
"Yes, Canada will cut megatonnes of (greenhouse gas) emissions, but we will also make megatonnes of money," Dion has said in several speeches. The Conservative ad excises everything except "megatonnes of money."
Confronted with the dishonesty, Prentice stumbled, then said, lamely: "Well, he said it, didn't he?"
If any party is living in a deficit glass house and should avoid throwing stones, it's the Conservatives. They have cut taxes by $40.2 billion per year and could put Canada back into deficit within two.
Unfortunately for the Liberals, they, too, want to cut corporate taxes.
Keith Davey knew Canada's electoral "sweet spot" is the two-thirds of Canadians on the centre-left. That's where today's Liberals need to be focused -- not on placating the one-third on the right who will never vote for them anyway.
And as I've stated elsewhere here, the majority of that one-third are in the West, while the rest of the moderate, centre-left Canadians are in Ontario, anglo and federalist Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
[updated Wed Feb 20 08:26:59 -0500 2008]
20 Feb 08:26
calmecam
Gordo:
Both your previous posts are bang on! Yet, both the posts take wildly different perspectives.
This is the major source of Dion's confusion -- and I agree that "thinking aloud in public" is not a good strategy. This is what Paul Martin did and it got him labelled Mr. Dithers.
I thought Dion should have pulled the plug when he wanted to months ago. I think Dion should pull the plug this time around as well.
That said, if Dion waits, he'll have the benefit of the by-election bump.
As well, as you state, the Conservatives are already being shrill (and the campaign hasn't even started yet).
Even more notable, they are already being roundly trounced, even directly by journalists (Susan Bonner, Graham Richardson and Robert Fife have been merciless with Prentice -- much more so than Duffy, Taber or Newman who are a bit more docile with the MPs in comparison). The scrutiny will only increase with a campaign.
The Conservatives have gone so far down the path of bare-knuckle brawling partisan politics, nobody would "buy" an attempt at an image change, or a change in their tone, at this point.
It is a shame that Prentice has had to march to Harper's orders and essentially make a fool of himself on national TV.
It seems to me that the Conservatives' approach to politics is slowly eroding away at their soft vote. They are gradually being reduced to playing to the utmost core of their base... this is a guaranteed failing strategy if you are on the Right in Canada, as it as a far away from the "sweet spot" as you can get.
Their current shrillness shows just how much they are flailing about.
If Dion were to patiently wait, it would only give PM Harper and the Conservatives more rope with which to eventually hang themselves.
What the Liberals have not realized yet is that the situation is such that no matter what Dion decides there is pretty much only upside left for them. The Conservatives have boxed themselves into a narrow corner.
Dion has to decide, once and for all, to go or not go, then stick with it. There is no bad decision for him on this one.
The ONLY bad decision Dion could make, as you so accurately stated previously, is to show everyone his thought process as he goes along.
Chrétiens' political instincts have mostly been good. Were I Dion, the fact he says "jump" is something I'd take to the bank!
[updated Wed Feb 20 12:44:21 -0500 2008]
20 Feb 12:44
Gordo05
Re your comment: Were I Dion, the fact he says "jump" is something I'd take to the bank!
I can only echo that. I think the reason for my two posts with vastly differing views is a clear reflection of my own dilemma - should he go or should he stay? If I was counselling him, I'd say go. But there are certain downsides to that strategy and there are certain upsides as well. I don't think Canada can take another two years of the Harper-ites. Not sure I agree with the sympathy for Jim Prentice. He made his own bed, he'll have to "lie" in it.
[updated Wed Feb 20 12:53:02 -0500 2008]
20 Feb 12:53
calmecam
You've got it SO right when you say: "We are all fed-up with the old rhetoric".
Of all our current party leaders, Dion is the one who is the most like Obama, in the sense that he's looking for a different way to do politics than the "everyone who doesn't think like me is a traitor or enemy" style which has been around since the Reform Party came to be.
However, unlike Obama who is still riding the "this-is-a-chance-to-make-history(-by-electing-a-Black-President)" train and meta-talking of hope, change, and stuff of the like (without telling people just what kind of change exactly he wants), Dion is starting to come out with some policy planks.
Dion's English is improving as is his media and public speaking skills. He received great response to his recent appearance on Radio-Canada's Tout le monde en parle, and his stint on CBC's The Hour (particularly the opening segment) shows he has humour and personality.
The first Canadian leader who can present to the population an upbeat vision of Canada around which we can rally, and spend more time talking about themself than "the other guy" will win big.
[updated Mon Feb 18 15:23:04 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 15:23
blossom
Hello calmecalm,
I do not remember Obama bringing the issue to the front on Caucasian vs African American...Wasen't it Bill Clinton, who until now had been to quote others, the "Black" President?
Bill Clinton should have listened to his own advice, and stayed behind the scenes because he did anything to help Hillary. HE had promised to stay away, but the temptation was too strong when he recognized Obama's talents as a politician, and Senator, Attorney, who has done much for the benefit of the grassroots in the US.
Obama, although very articulate, is somewhat like Stephane Dion, whereby these great men do better on a one-on-one debate.
Friends signaled to me about the "Tout le monde en parle", and I felt that M. Dion, although not treated with the respect that any guest would hope for, and that the choice of some of those guests, and the so funny subjects at hand, showed how well M. Dion could be quite an Ambassador to our Country, and under any undermining circumstances.
M. Dion was creative, even artistic, and with his usual charm was able to conteract the traps that had been laid for him. I always thought that it was a host's responsibility to welcome one's guest, and to treat him with the dignity, civility, and politeness that a guests deserves, and if the host is not capable of living up to those standards, that he should refer to what the proper etiquette should be.
I think that M. Dion, is learning that he has to deal at all levels of our societies, and without demeaning the values and principles that he holds high, he has the imaginitive mind, and finesse to teach them to elevate theirs.
M. Dion has a formidable personality, and one can learn by studying him. M. Dion is capable and at all levels, to make us proud of him. He is descent, yes, very humourous, and it is obvious that he is learning that when people step on his feet, he needs to move, and not let them take advantage any longer of his good nature.
This was M. Dion's problem - he was too polite, by nature, and because of his upbringing, and most thought that they could walk all over him. M. Dion has finally come to realize that this can no longer be, and now has gotten the message, that remaining always polite, he can assume his own space, despite those who would try to trespass.
I enjoyed reading your thoughts calmecalm, and giving me the chance to respond.
Thanks,
[updated Mon Feb 18 19:33:33 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 19:33
calmecam
Media litteracy 101 would say that if read between the lines, Obama clearly infers the race issue. "Yes we can!", "They said it couldn't be done", and "Change" are not only statements about booting out the Republicans, they are also statements about making history by selecting a Black man.
I fully agree that Bill Clinton pretty much killed his wife's campaign when he couldn't keep his mouth shut on the issue of race.
It is no coincidence that Obama makes people think of King when he speaks! It was revolutionary then, and what is going on today is no less revolutionary!
With Dion, it is no surprise he was treated poorly on the show. A significant portion of the artistic community in Quebec is VERY separatist. The Co-hosts of the show were formerly members of two wildly successful comedy troupes in Quebec : Rock et Belles Oreilles and Le Groupe Sanguin.
However, the fact that Dion remains upbeat and keeps showing his face no matter what terrible things are said about him (he was often depicted in caricature as a rat), or how he is treated, will gradually win people over. People love an underdog -- if it could work for Sanjaya on American Idol it can surely work for Dion LOL -- and people tend to, eventually, cringe when someone is repeatedly being kicked just for sport (especially if they are taking the high road at the time)!
I also appreicate the substance and thoroughness of your interventions, Blossom. Thank you for the kind, kind, compliment.
[updated Mon Feb 18 20:07:52 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 20:07
blossom
Hello calmecam,
I sense that you and others on this blog, and I could all really get along very well.
I shall take the time to answer later, because you deserve a good response.
For personal reasons, I prefer staying away from racial descrimination, since I believe that we were all born equal; which does not mean that we have gotten this message yet, and that we are, but this is a basic idealistic principal, and as it should be.
What I find really inspiring on this blog, is that we are now all coming to mutual understanding and together we are discovering the benefits of having exchanges, and becoming capable of expanding on subjects that are more profound than just being hit-bloggers. This is really exciting, and we can all learn and benefit by understanding the power that it gives us all intellectually.
Great hearing from you. Thanks.
[updated Tue Feb 19 12:30:50 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 12:30
calmecam
I. too, am very much enjoying being able to discuss ideas without being called all kinds of names, and having my intelligence insulted at every turn.
Like you, I have a big issue with using the race card in politics. It's just too easy... and cheap!
Unfortunately, the Conservatives are doing just that, trying to import US racial division to Canada with their ethnic vote strategy which divides our country's ethnocultural groups into "desirable" and "undesirable" categories.
Fortunately, the history of our country where race is concerned is much different than in the US, which is why Canadians are so roundly rejecting this approach.
I look forward to reading more of your thoughts.
[updated Tue Feb 19 16:00:57 -0500 2008]
19 Feb 16:00
zhimmy01
Did you ever think of being a little more focused on your comments? Can you say "rambler?" You wonder why the government or your local MPP doesn't respond...What do you think they are doing? Sitting around and waiting for you to hit send...Look I am all for particaption in the political process but man....you seem more interested in hearing yourself talk then listening and getting a result.
This is written by a guy who sat on the Liberal Board of Directors for several years and was a card carrying member for 12.
The Liberals need to go to the "woodshed" for a while. Harper and the Conservatives are the best alternative. Give someone else a chance! If they suck kick them out in 4 years. Heck, Canadians reduced them to 2 seats once before.
As Nik says keep it civil...but come on...look at your posts.
[updated Wed Feb 13 15:44:04 -0500 2008]
13 Feb 15:44
blossom
Hello zhimmy01,
Yes, I do ramble, trying to bring examples, whether in Canada and the US. so that hopefully we pay more attention, and not just the "spin" that we are hearing.
Do you think that it is normal for a minority gov/t to concentrate on attacking a new Leader, and keeping the attention and focus on trying to bring itself down, even when the numbers indicate that we might just end up with the same outcome, and at what great cost, especially when Canadians are not calling for an election.
I do NOT email my local MP's since it is the bloq and the pq...I really do not have anything to suggest to them, except that perhaps they should resign.
I agree with you that they 'suck' not usually my rhetoric, but yours, and I think that if you are paying attention to what I have held, is that I have repeatedly said, "let this gov/t self-defeat. Canadians are not asking for an election, nor have I, and Mr. Harper has been unrelenting in trying to instigate one. Wasn't it Mr. Harper himself who decided that we should have fixed elections?
I think that the Liberals have been in the "woodshed' long enough, and whatever happened that changed your allegiance, is your personal story. If you want to share it with us, I am all ears.
Another matter, is that I have been responding to those posts whereby those bloggers have been exchanging ideas and opinions on a personal basis, on this, Nik's blog, and in this same manner I am responding to yours.
If you have inside information, which I do not, I shall be happy to listen, but this blog is used as an exchange of different views and opinions, and I don't believe that I have lacked civility with anyone, on a personal basis.
You should listen to the rheroric in the House, and from your own party!
However, if you wish to bring to light some matters that we can debate, I shall be happy to try to stick to the subject matter.
I would be very interested to hear more, and in what capacity you served on the
Liberal Board of Directors.
Since I had never noticed/read your posts, please do not feel that anything that I posted had anything to do with you. Until now, you have been unknown to me.
Would you like to make a fresh start, and on a more moderate tone?
Cheers,
[updated Wed Feb 13 23:24:26 -0500 2008]
13 Feb 23:24
calmecam
Blossom:
Those of mediocre minds will always label as a rambler a person who not only can actually substantiate their views with facts, statistics, and examples of past behaviour, but takes the time to do so.
Ignore the neighing (you do know which animal neighs, I presume).
[updated Mon Feb 18 15:59:57 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 15:59
blossom
Hi calmecam,
Something that I have never mentioned before on this blog...I can actually "neigh"; one of the most beautiful sounds if one owned horses!
Horses "neigh" when they are happy, worried, calling to others, and are so majestic, and have actually saved my life, more than once. You just fell on one of my passions, and I could write a "Tome" about horses, and the love and bond that exists between horse and man.
Thanks for the wonderful memories, calmecalm.
Cheers,
[updated Mon Feb 18 19:47:34 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 19:47
calmecam
You are welcome for the memories, except that I goofed (lol)...
The term I ment to use was "braying".
My apologies to all horses, and horse-lovers everywhere. The sound of those who blindly spout out Conservative propaganda and media lines here should NEVER be confused with the beautiful sound of neighing from a beast as noble as a horse (not that braying animals are any less noble)!
[updated Mon Feb 18 20:13:35 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 20:13
blossom
Hi calmecam,
Sorry for this delay, and I have found your response to be quite elevating...Yes, indeed, the " the beauty, and nobility of horses", and all animals...
Unfortunately, not all human beings can be compared to this aristocratic, and loyal friend!
Great!
[updated Thu Feb 28 00:04:59 -0500 2008]
28 Feb 00:04
MRM
Harper doesn't want an election. Why would he? With wimpy heading up the Liberals the Tories have a majority! Latest poll numbers - Tories 38% - Grits 27%.
[updated Wed Mar 19 06:41:01 -0400 2008]
19 Mar 06:41
MRM
These poll numbers are old news (2-4 Feb). The latest poll (13 - 16 Mar - source CTV website) has the Tories 11 points up on the Grits (38% to 27%) so don't gloat to much my red friends. The fact that the Liberals are rejoicing over a tie shows just what a sad state that they are actualy in.
[updated Wed Mar 19 06:29:44 -0400 2008]
19 Mar 06:29
Gordo05
The Strategic Counsel survey released, Tuesday, March 18 and done for the Globe and Mail and CTV put support for the Conservatives at 38 percent, down one percentage point from a poll done by the same firm a month ago. The Liberals were steady at 27 percent.
I found it interesting that a story posted on the canada.com website had the following to say about the poll: "The Strategic Counsel regularly gives the Conservatives large leads. Polls by other firms show either a narrow Conservative advantage or a tie between the two parties."
Wonder what's up with that?
[updated Wed Mar 19 12:53:54 -0400 2008]
19 Mar 12:53
MRM
I suppose, like the Strategic Counsel, the recent Crop Poll is also an arm of the great right wing conspiracy?
[updated Wed Apr 02 09:40:42 -0400 2008]
02 Apr 09:40
Gordo05
You must have misunderstood the reason for my question. I was not implying that the Strategic Counsel was part of any kind of great right wing conspiracy, as you put it. I was simply wondering why the SC poll seemed to be out of sync with other polls - particularly Nic's. I posed the question to see if there could be a discussion on it on this site, as I have a very keen interest in polling and analysis of polls because that's what I do for a living. I also note that there's a new poll released earlier this week that has received quite a bit of coverage in the media - particularly CTV - which provides some pretty bad news for the Liberals. The Conservatives enjoy the support of 36 per cent of Canadians – roughly the same level as the 2006 election – but the Liberals have dropped to 26 per cent, down two percentage points in the last month and four percentage points from the 2006 vote, according to this latest poll – this one by Angus Reid.
The New Democrats are at 18 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 9 per cent and the Green party, which enjoyed a strong showing in the March 17 by-elections, is at 9 per cent, double its support in the 2006 federal election.
The news is grim for Liberal Leader Dion, as his approval rating stands at 11 per cent, down 6 points since February.
PM Harper's approval rating stands at 33 per cent, down one point since February. But Reid reports that the PM’s own momentum score is sagging – in March, 11 per cent of respondents said their opinion of the Prime Minister improved while 27 per cent said it got worse.
More than a third of respondents – 36 per cent – prefer Harper as prime minister while just 9 per cent like Dion for the job.
But in a telling testament to public apathy for federal politics, 42 per cent of Canadians pick neither man for the country's top political job, giving rise to a "very weird time" in Canadian politics, according to Reid.
Angus Reid Strategies conducted the poll for the Star last Thursday and Friday. It conducted an online survey of 1,007 adult Canadians.
In response to the suggestion that this is a "very weird time" in Canadian politics, I would also add that it appears fairly obvious that Canadians like this minority government - not because it is Conservative or Liberal or NDP - but simply because it is a minority. Go figure.
[updated Wed Apr 02 09:58:27 -0400 2008]
02 Apr 09:58
Bernie
The numbers are what I expected they would be. There is no outstanding issue to cause a political change. As it stands there is no hope of a majority for either party. However I think that there will be an election.
Harper is putting Dion in a position where he soon can't cave in any longer. If Dion keeps propping up the Conservatives eventually it will destroy any credibility he has. I don't think his caucus is as opposed to him as the rumours say. Or maybe the ambitious front runners (Brutus Ignafieff) want to get rid of him and by calling an election and getting defeated again would give them the opportunity.
Harper knows he can't get a majority but he may be willing to get another minority. That would ensure his government for another few years and put himself in a position to bring in any legislation know that the opposition would have no choice but support him so soon after an election. I think he still feels safe with getting a minority but if he leaves it to much longer he may think that the Liberals will win a minority
My prediction is that Dion will be forced to vote against him and that there will be an election this spring.
[updated Fri Feb 08 09:08:23 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 09:08
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Mike
Hi Nik
Stephen Harper is trying desperately to trigger an election, the sooner the better for the Conservatives. He had a good chance to go last fall but the liberals were in no position to go to the polls, they were forced to allow the government to survive. Dion cannot afford to do this much longer. Unlike the press I believe the liberals will present a united front.
You are right the conservatives are not fighting Dion, no matter how many attack ads and smear campaigns they throw at him. That path will not lead them to majority; they are not fighting the liberal brand only; they are fighting Canadian values, we are not interested in a semi-democratic dictatorship.
Harper and Dion both want to go to the polls but for different reasons. Harper has to go now, because things can only get worst for him, the war, the environment, the wheat board and the isotope incident etc….
Dion wants to go now because he can’t afford to be perceived as propping up this government whose values fall so short of traditional Canadian values any longer.
We are going into an election; the parliament will be dissolved by S. Harper claiming interference by the senate.
[updated Fri Feb 08 09:39:50 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 09:39
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hollinm
I am not surprised to see the apparent drop in Conservative support. Each day they are being subjected to vicious attacks by the opposition parties and the media.
However, Mr. Harper and his inner circle has to accept the fact that the government has not been able to raise their polling numbers. There is a real perception, I believe, that has taken hold among the electorate that the government is less forthing coming than it should be about a multitude of things and therefore lacks transparency. The stopping of transfers of detainees is a good case in point. This could have been a good news story for the government but was only revealed through a court case. This is not the way to deal in a frank and open manner with Canadians.
There are other examples where the government has not responded to attacks by the opposition or media and given their side of the story. Failing any response Canadians who are interested are left to believe what the opposition parties are saying is true. There is a fine line between seeing too much of the prime minister and not enough. I think the latter is the case with this government. Therefore the impression being perpetrated by the opposition and media is that the government is secretive.
Mr. Harper handles himself very well in news conferences but he fails to inspire Canadians. The speeches lack passion and a real effort to cause Canadians to take pride in their country and at the same time to create the feeling that the country is in good hands under this administration. It is more about talking points than substantive dialogue. If this does not change the government will have to face the consequences.
On the other hand Harper's leadership numbers are consistently far and away better than Dion's even though Dion's improved in this latest poll. I suspect that Nik is right. Harper is competing against the Liberal brand which is very strong. Conservative fundraising is outpacing the Liberals by a wide margin which confirms there is real support for the Conservative message in this country.
So as NIk says there is no clear cut apparent winner in these numbers we all know there are many factors that affect the outcome of an election. I believe that Mr. Harper and his team will outperform the weak Dion and his divided party. At the end of the day there is only two choices for Canadians as to which government they want. One that has shown competent. decisive leadership or one that has no credible position on any subject of the day and who has proven that they are prepared to steal taxpayers money in order to stay in power.
[updated Fri Feb 08 11:11:44 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 11:11
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Zhimmy
I think as long as the Conservatives try and win in Quebec and not in Ontario they will not win a majority. Ontario is the key battleground! This is where the votes are and this is where the largest population is. As long as Harper tries to overlook that and not address Ontario's issues they simply will not get a majority. The "Mulroney strategy" of overlooking Ontario and getting votes in Quebec. In particular from the BLOC ridings he is hoping for will only materialize once they realize that Ontario will make them an "empty chair." Anything else is just making deals with the devil at the expense of a strong united Canada. The more deals he makes with the devil will only be one more nail in the coffin in Ontario.
Just as one example I don't think Harper realizes that by giving Alberta and B.C. more seats in the House he probably has cost himself more seats in Ontario.
A good question? Ontario has gone all red (Liberal) in the last 25 years. But has it gone all blue (Conservative)?
[updated Fri Feb 08 14:50:39 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 14:50
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SaskKen
Harper's Conservatives 2008 are the Canadian political equivalent of the Bush Republicans of early 2003. They're on the popularity slide to hell and the only way they can think to change things is by attacking something. In Bush's case it was Iraq. And that worked -- for awhile. In Harper's case it's Dion. And that fiddle's been played. Harper isn't as close to the depths of political hell as Bush, but he's well on his way. Harper's forgotten what got him elected two years ago. He took a giant step left and brought his party into the center-right of the political spectrum. Voters fed up with the Liberals felt comfortable enough to give Harper a minority to let him show what he can do. Now they've watched that pitiful, bitter and silly display for two years they're ready to vote Liberal again. Or NDP. Or Bloc. Or Green. Or anybody but CPC. And yes all you Albertans out there you'll stand by your man. But that isn't going to matter. If the Liberals can hold out forcing an election for another year or so, Alberta will be an island of Conservatism in a sea of sanity.
[updated Fri Feb 08 15:03:42 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 15:03
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blossom
Hello Nik,
Good job on the medias, and as usual, always a professional!
You know that it always hurts me to the bone when I see the bloq ratings in this province of Qc.
However, as a proponent of your blog; haven't I always held the belief that this present gov/t. will self-destruct, and that (Alberta will be a huge card if the Prov. Grits win the undecided votes), and as I have always maintained that Mr. Harper will never have a majority. At the next elections the harperites are out!
Jean Charest distanced himself from the conservatives, and since the adq is down, how much flip-flopping can the PM do? Is he going to try to appeal to the pq?
The US economy is in trouble, and the monies that have been thrown unwisely and too late within the US economy won't salvage the crops. Unfortunately, our Canadian economy is also going to feel it 6 months down the road. In the State of Ohio alone, and with the mortgage sub-prime rate crunch, they have 6.1% unemployment...more than the national average.
In answer to your last question, the question is not can Mr. Harper win a majority; it is that he can no longer hope to win even a minority. Canadians keep saying that they do NOT want an election! Imagine the cost, the unknown state of our coming economy, the surplus that have been wasted by a PM who is an economist, his pursuit of continuing in Afghanstan after Robert Fowler, Former UN Ambassador, who states that this war/mission has failed since the days of Alexander the Great, and will take generations of undertaking losses without a real hope of prevailing...Peter Van Loan's loss of his senses in the medias a few days ago...If this gov/t cannot finish the job; let them retire, and hand over to the Opposition that is slowly gaining Canadian votes.
Darfur is coming back on the plate...As Mr. Fowler explained, there are so many Countries that we can help, and really make a difference...Let us exploit those possibilities, whereby we have proved that we can make a difference.
Cheers, and keep up the good work Nik.
[updated Fri Feb 08 19:57:41 -0500 2008]
08 Feb 19:57
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Non-aligned in Toronto
Hi Nik, I saw your interview on Question Period (CTV) and noted that the interviewer studiously avoided bringing up the most important aspect of the poll; ie: both the Liberals and Conservatives are droppping in support while the NDP, Bloc, and Greens are rising. I believe that this is directly resulting from the respective positions on Afghanistan taken by the parties.
The Cons and Libs either support or are ambivilant about extending the combat mission. The other three oppose extending the combat mission in no uncertain terms. The resultant 10 point swing away from the Lib/Con parties and towards the others have a direct correlation IMHO.
I am quite sure that A'Ghan will be the ballot question if the election comes soon.
[updated Mon Feb 11 11:41:02 -0500 2008]
11 Feb 11:41
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blossom
Hello Nik,
Just watched your latest poll on Duff this evening, and you have to admit that your poll is what I have been predicting all along, a Liberal win!
Good show!
Cheers
[updated Fri Feb 15 20:58:11 -0500 2008]
15 Feb 20:58
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calmecam
Nik:
I agree with most of your assessment and I believe I can explain why there is election buzz in the air when the numbers don't seem great for the Liberals or Conservatives... The word for it is: intangibles.
Canadians are often asked who among the party leaders is the better leader, but are rarely asked about their view of leaders' vision for the future Canada or who is the better statesman or even who is more "like-able".
The Conservatives want to go now to get ahead of many realities bubbling under, among them:
1) A possible economic downturn (which is why Prentice is making his absurd $98 billion deficit statement and asking Liberals to show their plan before the Conservatives do) that would expose financial management incompetence;
2) Media reports from the legal battle with Elections Canada on the in-and-out scheme;
3) Media reports about results of investigations into interference in the Ottawa municipal election about the O-Train and inducement of Terry Kilrea to step aside;
4) Increased reports of casualties resulting from a spring offensive in Kandahar;
5) The possibility of NATO allies not coming through with the meager troop and equipment request as stated in the Manley report;
6) The Liberals getting any kind bump from by-elections; and
7) The Bloc preparing to attack the Conservatives 24/7 with all the resources at their disposal in Quebec.
The Conservatives have lashed out at everyone over the their term. They've lost Newfoundland and Labrador with Danny Williams promoting ABC; May, Dion and Bill Casey are on their case in NS; Charest's none too pleased with Harper's flirtation with Dumont in Quebec; McGuinty's fuming at being repeatedly called "the small man of Confederation"; BC, ON & QU are upset with lack of action on the forestry and/or manufacturing crises; Farmers in the west are upset with the games being played with the Wheat Board; and SK is still wondering about their natural resources revenues and equalization payments. The CPC have also lost women, many seniors (income trusts) and any Canadian who cares about our military but does not support the current mission as it stands (one can only be called Taliban-lover so many times after all), and finally any Canadian who cares about the environment.
Why wouldn't the Conservatives want to go now? There's soon to be a fire sale on Conservative seats throughout the country (with the possible exception of AB, but with all the interprovincial migration, demographics are changing there too)!
The Liberals are hoping that many of these issues will be brought to light during the campaign, and that they'll maybe even get lucky (as did the Conservatives when the RCMP announced an investigation in the middle of the last campaign) with one or more of the potential ticking timebombs mentioned above exploding during the election period.
The Conservatives, given their treatment of the media, will also not get the free-ride they recieved in the last election when everyone was right pissed at the Liberals for their then-shady habits.
The Liberals know that the Conservatives can't possibly, based on these numbers and realities, secure another majority. Moreover, the Liberals know that PM Harper has staked his leadership on a Conservative majority in this coming election.
For the Liberals, there is nothing to lose by rolling the dice. At worst, they'll be in another minority situation and there will be a leadership change. At best they'll get a minority or a majority.
Any outcome except for a Conservative majority (or possibly a very convincing margin of victory for a minority win) will eventually lead to PM Harper's ouster.. and with no leader-in-waiting given the one-man-show approach, possibly the implosion of the current PC/Reform alliance.
The upside is pretty good for the Liberals no matter what happens, particularly with the Bloc having decided that they are going to spend all their time and money in Quebec bashing the Conservatives for a change (after 5 consecutive elections of Liberal bashing).
If anything comes out about the in-and-out scandal during the campaign, both the NDP and Bloc will spend time in Quebec painting the Conservatives as being just as corrupt as the sponsorship-scandal era Liberals.
Why wouldn't the Liberals want to go now?
[updated Mon Feb 18 19:45:36 -0500 2008]
18 Feb 19:45
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calmecam
Nik:
Do you think that there could be an Obama-effect from the current US political race here in Canada?
The Reformers/Conservatives and Liberals have viciously been at each other's throats for years now and we're sick of "lowest common denominator politics".
I think that the combo of the outright worldwide rejection of the Bush legacy coupled with so many Canadians tuned in to the US race, watching Obama "do politics differently", has Canadians comparing the level of discourse in our politics to what is going on south of us.
I posit that as Obama's popularity increases, Canadians will be looking for Obama-like qualities in our next PM... particularly since he might very well become President. Canadians might want a PM in place who would actually get along with a potential President Obama (or even a President Clinton).
I predict that Liberal strength in the polls with continue to slowly rise as it becomes more clear who the Democratic nominee will be.
Canadians are already realizing that the next US President will most likely be a Democrat and that Dion would be a much better fit as PM than Harper, particularly given Obama's views on the environment or the Conservatives' current attitude to women.
Given the importance of Canada-US relations, this will be a key factor in the Canadian election race.
[updated Wed Feb 20 13:27:37 -0500 2008]
20 Feb 13:27
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counterweight
The Conservatives may start out of the gate even with the Liberals, but the Conservatives will cross the finish line ahead and here is why.
The Conservatives cannot lose voters to the right of them, the Liberals have to keep and attract left wingers from the Green and NDP, which will repel otherwise attracted conservative Liberals.
Both parties will retain their base brand support, yet the Conservatives are in a better position to attract un-committed voters because they have delivered on their past election promises, they have run a clean government, and most of all, they can count on Harper delivering votes because of his respected style of leadership. Harper will outdraw Dion by a country mile.
[updated Sun Feb 24 08:01:25 -0500 2008]
24 Feb 08:01
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pmullen
Has anyone else taken a look at the question ? It's no wonder these numbers are drastically different from other polls; by looking at the top TWO choices, Nick has nullified a large number of undecided voters that would likely lean towards the Conservatives. It seems obvious (at least to me) that many of people have been voting Liberal for a long time, and when asked to supply two choices, will name their old one as well as their new one.
[updated Sun Feb 24 09:53:07 -0500 2008]
24 Feb 09:53
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blossom
Hello Nik,
I heard you on 940AM radio with Charles Adler, no conservative friend of mine, and you stated what I have already posted that scandals, and soap operas seem to inspire people, more so than the issues. That to bring down governments on scandals is not good for our Country, and our Democracy, and I totally agree with your assessment. It is also mine.
However, and perhaps because an answer could have been a conflict of interest for you, but I thought that you missed on not responding to Mr. Adler's last question about not having any great politicians and Leaders at this time, and instead you laughed it off, and ignored a chance to give an intelligent view, if only to precipitate people to think about those matters, and to debate.
I shall grant you that if Mr. Adler's guests do not agree with him, he rudely cuts them off, and no one is allowed to give an opinion that he doesn't agree with. Mr. Adler is an ardent right-winger, and just does not get it that people can disagree with his totalitarian reviews.
It's his show, and he has regard for no one who disagrees with him. My point is that there is only one viewpoint, and that it is his.
This is why I found it regretable for someone like you, who is intelligent, can make a difference, and can certainly hold his own at all times with any biggot, that I was disappointed not to hear you make, even a small positive statement, and let him off as though once again he had proven his point.
No matter what party that you allign yourself with, and as an invited guest, and a man of definate intelligence, I was disappointed that you prefered to acknowledge Mr. Adler's comments, and let him continue to wear his blinkers, and feel all so pleased with himself.
It's his show, but if he doesn't want confrontation, why bother inviting guests who might disagree.
Nik, although I apologize, and do not want to put you on the spot, but I was disappointed that a man of your stature, with your intelligence, and public standing, did not, in my personal opinion live-up to your capabilities, and voice your thoughts.
Normally, you always live-up to my expectations in the medias, and today I was truly disappointed.
Unless I am wrong, I would love to hear your side of the story, As always,
Cheers,
[updated Mon Mar 03 23:20:47 -0500 2008]
03 Mar 23:20
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Mike
I have been reading a lot of blogs; I cannot understand why Canadians are so easily hoodwinked by this government. The conservatives keep thumping their chest about how accountable they are, while trying to bribe votes. Have broken all kinds of promises, such as income trust, they leak information about their political opponents south of the border. Have declared war on the Canadian wheat board, have emptied the federal coffers Are presently in an all out battle of words with the Premier of Ontario and Newfoundland. Yet Canadians still believe their high priced propaganda campaign.
Do we absolutely have follow the path of our southern neighbors? They are at the tail end of eight years of republican rule, we’ve only had two years……. and already we are close to a deficit. Liberals did not screw up the country this badly in 13 years
Wake up Canada
[updated Wed Mar 05 07:40:46 -0500 2008]
05 Mar 07:40
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blossom
Hello Nik,
Just heard you on cpac with Peter Van Dusen, and it all registered...I am happy that you are not a politician, and you should be giving your unbiased, and wise viewpoints on a daily basis. Perhaps this would help all Canadians understand what is happening with the games of politics.
This was a great and honest interview. Please do it more often, and set the record straight.
The " psycology of the economy" was a great theme that you discussed. I agree totally with this perception that it has not hit us yet, but wait till it happens! Voters will react.
Another perspective, on Stephane Dion, is that he'll be damned if he does, and he'll be damned if he doesn't", reminds me a lot of Premier Jean Charest's first term. He could not make a move without being attacked, and today he is entering his second term, after today's budget, which was a good preventive and safe budget for possible dire times to come if the American economy collapses, and Mr. Harper has since depleated our surplusus. Should an emergency happens, and the Afghan war is turning out to be double the cost, where is he going to find funds for those emergencies?
We have no troops, and the US is short on troops with Iraq, and with 'bush' always contemplating invading Iran, (crazy idea), there is a standing option already in the making that we could see Canadian forces in the US, and vice-versa, should there be any kind of an emergency.
Terrific interview; in 5 minutes you summed-up the whole picture, clearly, and for all to grasp.
The reason that Canadians are not paying attention is that they are totally fed-up with the behaviour in the "House"...Not what they were elected to do, and acting like "buffons"!
They were not elected to spin the truth, but to answer to it! That's what they are paid for!
No reflection on you, Nik. (ha-ha)
Cheers, and good for you!
PS:
Education and the Economy is a priority on my list if we want our citizens to fare in a competing global economy.
[updated Fri Mar 14 00:12:47 -0400 2008]
14 Mar 00:12
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