Federal Political Year in Review - Challenges and Opportunities for 2008

I think it's way too early to attempt to figure out how an 2007 election will pan out, I think if one is called all attention will be focused on the Conservates and Liberals with the NDP and Green's whining for airtime as per usual.
The centralist media will not be able to stop themselves from covering the day to day comings and goings of Harper and Dion and this will assure nothing dramatic happening for either the NDP or Green's when it comes right down to voting day.

I've never seen the Conservatives and Liberals playing thier cards so close to thier chest leading up to a potential election call. This I believe will make for a lot of dramatic announcements in the first few weeks of an election and the more dramatic the platforms the more volatile the electorate will become.

The rarely seen before negative mud slinging and general mayhem in the house of commons will carry forward into election campaigns that perhaps will make it one of the most memorable in our recent history.

[updated Thu Dec 27 10:11:02 EST 2007]

While I agree with most of what was said, I disagree with the notion of the NDP making any gains. The NDP in the next election will have to fight for seats with the Green Party. The Ontario election should be a wake-up call for the NDP. Outside of the GTA, the Green Party in most ridings came in 3rd with the NDP coming in 4th or last.

The real battle will be between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario. The Conservatives have written off Toronto as indicated with the dumping of Mark Warner who was to go up against Bob Rae. If the Liberals have a solid platform, stay on message, and have good candidates then they will make in-roads in parts of Ontario and Quebec that have never elected a Liberal MP.

[updated Thu Dec 27 10:15:20 EST 2007]

Nik is quite right that the NDP has lately been sidelined, unable to call the shots in a minority parliament. But that is not so much because the PCs have been able to play a divide and conquer game as it is the result of the LIBs' recent willingness to give the government a bye, abstaining on a series of key items presented as confidence votes. Jack Layton can hardly be expected to extract a price for extending NDP backing for some PC initiative if Stephane Dion has already plonked down his votes, in effect if not by actually casting them, in favour of the latest PC dare. And perhaps it will work to Layton's benefit that he can tar the LIBs with responsibility for propping up the PC minority in the election anticipated in 2008.

On the Green Party's threat to the NDP, I think that it is important to note that there was a significant policy difference which allowed the Ontario Greens to eat the NDP's provincial lunch in the October 2007 election. The Greens were the only party advocating a single secular school system, giving them an activist stance on the faith-based school funding issue, which turned out to be the ballot question, to add to their green appeal. I believe that was the basis for much of the increase of 227K (121%) in the GPO vote over that party's 2003 showing. The NDP gained only 80K (12%); the PC vote dropped by 160K (10%); and LIB backing fell by 222K (11%). Can Elizabeth May expect to get that lucky?

A happy new year to one and all.

Graham Murray

[updated Thu Dec 27 10:53:46 EST 2007]

Unless something dramatic occurs in the near future the polls indicate another minority government for Canada. Whether it will be a Conservative or Liberal minority remains to be seen; if Liberal, it can be expected that the NDP and Bloc.,after negotiations, will support some of the Liberal left leaning positions on the environment, taxation and social programs.

[updated Thu Dec 27 11:36:16 EST 2007]

The "laid back" tactics of Dion in the fall parliament are making him look good as it appears that Harper is self destructing with flip flops here and there that are quite noticeable. The latest being the news this AM that Flaherty is going to backtrack on his government's promised income tax cuts which are supposed to mirror the GST cuts. The economic situation does not play well for Harper's populist politics and the GST cuts will now come into a more negative focus.

Dion on the other hand appears to have his house in order and while playing his hand close to the vest has increased and steadied his polling numbers. I see further upward momentum for him and I think he will make a breakthrough in Quebec and may even win Outremont back. He will, in any case keep Mulcair grounded in his riding in any campaign as he will surely have a star candidate and the party will properly support him this time.

The Greens will be a great help to the Liberals as they will keep the NDP on the defensive and be a cooperative partner in some ridings.

The Bloc has only one way to go and that's down. I would say the Liberals and Tories will both share those spoils and that will neutralize any Tory gains in the last election.

Ontario remains key and appears to be solidly in the liberal camp and with McGuinty having no love for Harper he will be lending his support and electoral machine to Dion.

I predict an election in the spring and a Liberal minority government with Harper resigning from the party shortly afterwards.

[updated Thu Dec 27 11:40:01 EST 2007]

Nick your assessment is always close to reality. But to answer your question: What do you think?
I believe that in the next election regardless who triggers it, The Conservatives will form the next Govt. either with a small Majority, or a stronger minority.

I wish you a very Happy NewYear and continued success in all your endeavors.

JV.

[updated Thu Dec 27 12:18:13 EST 2007]

Yeah... all elections come down to four things, generally: The issues (which would be in this case war, economy, environment), scandal or past record, candidates running, and campaigns themselves in relation to media.

To begin with, it does come down to issues, especially with the decided voter. War and environmental degradation are not things women in general like. Enough empirical evidence is gathered to suggest that they certainly seem to have less tolerance for it than men, and since the Conservative government is so bent on war alone compared to their political counterparts, with a pro "development" stance with the tar sands, its seems as though the issues themselves come to light with females in this country and the clear difference between the Conservatives is their foreign policy on war and the environment compared to the foreign policy of the rest of the parties, most especially the Liberals.

The Harper government might not get much help from the economy either. In the month of October, the nation ran a 2.7 billion dollar deficit. Essentially, the Harper government has cut social programs to pay for the GST point, but spending has increased in the military and government cuts to revenue itself, in the spring and fall budgets, with another planned GST cut... there's a reason why we are overtaxed in this nation. Its called debt and its staggering, still, but other problems loom.

The only point I'd really like to stress is that as the year rolls on into 2008, the economic issues will become more important. Often an election can be won or lost by the media simply avoiding the issues like Afghanistan or even the environment, but economic issues will not go away for Canada and the voters who are decided, are most likely to be passionately involved with the issues themselves.

War... environmental degradation... as much as women do not support these causes with the same fervor as men (they just aren't built that way) both have accelerated with Harper, one has to ask how decided female voters are. And too, one has to ask what the media can't fail to report on, which is the economy, and the economical numbers coming out of the U.S. are devastating to any economy. In the month of October, their real estate valuations dropped 6.7% nationally. If thats a trend, thats a free fall and that means people will go broke. If that leads to shrinking spending, it cascades into China and China pumps up its currency and from there... maybe they can internalize their ecomomy in China, but its doubtful and if they can't internalize, commodities will fall. No, the longer Harper waits, the worse it will get for him. His buddy, Bush, isn't fairing so well.

Dion plays the compromise...Layton blows it by being Layton, the big question is what Elizabeth May will do but the Greens are too new and will at best, improve a few percentage points nationally. I think she'll win in her riding. As for her future nationally, it comes down to candidates to surprise people with a few seats but for now, its a wait 'n see. It still does come down to candidates, after all. And how will it go? If Harper called an election today, I think he'd win, but just barely and the NDP might truly hold the balance of power. If Harper waits, Dion waits, the longer it goes, the worse it will get for Harper. The U.S. recession won't wait, thats a guarantee.

[updated Thu Dec 27 15:40:30 EST 2007]

I think there will be a late spring/early summer election at the earliest. Dion is in the catbird seat and can only benefit by waiting. Harper will have to see how Mulroney/Schreiber Affair plays out. Pretty sure there will be an inquiry...if for no other reason than to show how tawdry politics used to be and for Harper to have to prove he has changed all that with his anemic adn largely unproclaimed Accountability Act

Expect at least a technical US recession in the 2 and 3 Qtrs of 08 but Bush will fake it and no one will officially admit it until first QTR of 09 - after a new President is sworn in and gets to deal with it. The slowdown is obvious, the US economic protectionist attitudes will hurt Ont, Alta and BC mostly and that is where Harper needs to hold and grow. His Quebec strategy will be in taters because it was all about Mulroney and no one dare talk to that eloquent liar any more.

The homeland security angst and various war costs are going to take a larger toll on Bush's ability to govern. He is dropping dramatically in domestic support and international influence. Two elements he needs to be strong in if the Republicans are to survive the election. Domestic fear of opening another conflict front with Iran that will add costs and not provide additional domestic security. All of of this will make Bush a profound political liability to the Republicans who iwll be worried about surviving as a driving political force after the coming elections.

Harper is alone and isolated without Mulroney and Bush which he used strategically to keep his base happy. Expect a bad budget this spring and a backlash on GST cuts that mean nothing as an individual pocketbook issue and handcuff handcuff government flexibility in dealing with serious stuff we are facing. Harper will come to be seen as ignorant on social concerns, inert on environmental concerns and inept on econony issues...and a bully to boot. Not much leash left on this guy...Dion has to just give him enough time to hang himself with it.

[updated Thu Dec 27 15:41:06 EST 2007]

After the coming election, Elizabeth May will be the only national party leader whose leadership will not be in question. She has displayed, thus far, no double speak, no reversal of policy, no compromise of principles, no untrustworty "feelings", is relaxed and, obviously, she is not afraid of losing seats---Ho Ho. I would suggest again that the Green's gains will primarily be the NDPs losses. Layton's leadership has, at the best, remained static but I would suggest it has diminished and , after the election, will be faced with party demands for a change at the top. I believe we may see the emergence of Mulcaire as a populist leader of the party and from Quebec no less----that will be very interesting.

Duceppe and the BQ viewed from the distance of the West Coast, may not be as threatened as earlier thought as it appears that Dumont may not deliver quite as effectively federally to the Conservatives. One cannot discount the effect of the Schreiber affair on the evaluation of the Quebecois of the major federal parties. In Quebec where they were stung by Adscam, they now see the Conservatives tarred by the same brush-----now the Liberals and Conservatives maybe standing in the same mud. Ah !---good old Canadian politics.

The peripheral actions of the NDP, the Greens and the Bloc on the perception of the electorate is of paramount importance to both the Conservatives and the Liberals as they are both mired in their own quicksands. In an election, a dirty election I speculate, the Conservatives and the Liberals cannot expect a lifeline to be thrown to their way by the peripheral parties who swallowed their principles and did so in the House in the past.

So what is the matter ? I would suggest that nothing much has changed. We have the Conservatives IN MINORITY with strong leadership, with generally acceptable legislation but some real or imagined policies that in a MAJORITY situation the electorate would obviously feel uncomfortable about otherwise Harper should have "grown" in the polls. There are lingering questions of Afghanistan, hospital wait times, "dead" social issues and the dust and BS on climate change. After two years of sitting on the throne, that throne maybe pulled from under Harper in the post election period.

So what with the Liberals ? Somewhat the reverse of the Conservatives. Indeterminate leadership with generally unpublished policies thought to be non-radical and in the "middle" that has broarder appeal to the electorate. Policy and trust are likely the major components for the next election. If Dion is on a slippery slope now, it is nothing to what he would be on after an unsuccessful election.

All eyes should be on the peripheral parties as their action or lack of action will determine who will get the handful of extra seats to form a shaky majority. I believe Quebec voters will be the king-makers as that region appears the most unpredictable at this date.

Just watch where the pre-election spending is targeted and you will see where the minority government has its "worry beads" focused.

[updated Thu Dec 27 17:29:01 EST 2007]

Hello Nik,

It certainly will not be the NDP, who will call an election, unless they are still impressed with Tom Mulcair, and feel that he is going to carry their weight for them.

The bloq - gilles duceppe looks as though he might muster through another Federal election, but I don't think that he will be around for too long...I think that he has had it, and can't wait to get his pension! The conservatives aren't going to make their nest in Qc, because mario dumont can't promise to deliver for S. Harper! The adq will no longer be the next Opposition party in Qc, in Provincial elections.

If Liz May wins a seat in E. Nova, the dynamics of the politics will change this year. It was a brilliant move that Stephane Dion made with her, and they will be individually strong and effective in Parliament this session;especially credible on some of our most defining, pressing issues. With what has happened in Pakistan today, Afghanistan is going to become an urgent issue. I think that it is going to change the dynamics of the politics.

What M. Dion has to do, is to become to Canada, what Ralf Nader was to the US. M.
Dion has already hinted that Canadians are earnestly beginning to consider a change, and if an election is called, I could see M. Dion - prime target for calling such. I believe that after a year of being the Conservatives' prime target, that the tables could turn on them!

Cheers,

[updated Sat Dec 29 01:44:07 EST 2007]

Hello Nik,

I would especially like to wish you a Very Happy, and Successful New Year, and thank you for this opportune blog that gives us the possibilities of venting our views and opinions.

I would also like to wish all of you the very best and Seasons' Greetings, and to Bernie, and Tom, whose names I have not come across, Ken Chapman, Parnel, with whom I have had lots of exchanges, and all of the others who participate. None are forgotten.

[updated Sun Dec 30 00:32:50 EST 2007]

Nik, that's a good summary and analysis of the political scene for the past year.
Who's knows what 2008 will bring us!
Harper performance as PM will not increase his support. So far his performance is a negative to a plurality of voters. While those who are fairly secure economically have some degree of optimism and that will recede when the economy slows down. Those who are not so lucky, and there are many of them, do not have such an optimistic outlook and it will only get worse for them. Harper cannot look to that so-called good feeling to enhance his support. Unless he changes policy with regard to Afghanistan and the environment and social concerns his support will dwindle. However if he is as smart as some people think he may detect that lack of support and change his policies. He is not above flip-flopping.
The Liberals are in a bad position now but Dion on the other hand has no where to go but up. I believe Dion wil bring down this government at his first opportunity this Spring. probably at budget time, unless something unexpected comes up before that. and I expect the other parties will support him. What would happen in an election would be anybody's guess. Politics can change rapidly in a few weeks.
I don't think the attack ads hurt Dion as much as Harper. Most Canadians are decent minded people. Those ads lowered their respect for Harper. Some think politics is a blood sport but the ordinary folk don't like that and will not support it..
Polls published Dec. 20 showed the LIberals 32 to CPC 30. So if Dion is bad what will happen if he starts performing better..
The NDP are an enigma. I still think that they have more good policies than the CPC or Liberals. They have had an excellent opportunity over the last several years to become heavyweights on the political scene. For some reason they have not taken advantage. They are not emphazising their social democratic policies. If they now had Tommy Douglas, David Lewis or Ed Broadbent or if they focused on their policies as these former leaders did they wouild be on the cusp of forming the government or having having powerful enfluence on it. They seem to be more into personality leadeship or political opportunism and are getting away from their core values.
They are lacking in organization. When the ordinary Joe or Jane goes into mark their ballot they want to see someone they know. Layton's name is not on the ballot in my district and for the last several elections I did not see the NDP candidate's name until a day or two before voting day. The name on the ballot has to be someone we know and recognize otherwise the encumbant whom we all know has an easy time.getting re-elected.
It's unlikely the Greens will win a seat, tho. I would not be totally surprised if they picked up one or two. One thing about the Greens that people believe and which shows that they don't look at policy very carefully is that they think the Greens are left-leaning. Except for one or two things they are right wing. If it wasn't for the environment they could fit in with the Conservatives. However the Green leader in Ontario, De Jong, softened their right-wing stance and empressed me in the Ontario Provincial election.
I will vote for them anyway unless the NDP or LIberals can get their act together and put forth a policy platform that I could accept.
I could never vote CPC as long as Harper is their leader. I equate him to DicK Cheney, a despicable character.
I have no comment to make on the Bloc or Quebec politics except to say that I respect Duceppe as a person. He says what his cause is and he works hard for it.

[updated Sun Dec 30 08:37:12 EST 2007]

Nik, here is my fearless forecast for a late winter/spring election

Liberals...........147 seats including 20 or more in Quebec.
Conservatives...97 seats
NDP..................18 seats
Bloc..................43 seats
Greens............. 3 seats

I see the Liberals staying a little shy of a majority but within striking distance. The greens will make a breakthrough in the maritimes and possibly in BC. I'm possibly too optimistic for the NDP but if they cannot hold their seats then a Liberal majority could be a reality.
I'm only vague in my thinking about the Bloc. They could simply implode and then a Liberal majority would definitely happen as the Tories cannot win many more than they have right unless they get truly lucky as thye have no organization there and the ADQ is not going to help as much as they would like them to.
I'm basing my projections on the fact the Liberals will come close to a sweep in Ontario possibly winning 90 seats or more and winning most of the maritime vote.

[updated Sun Dec 30 10:29:52 EST 2007]

NJN;
I agree with your summaries for each party for 2007 past. While Dion's Liberals have indeed been beat up pretty good in 2007 no other party, particularly the conservative party, has managed to eliminate the Liberal's prospects for forming the next government in the mind of the voters. How remarkable is that? Was the Conservative attack ad budget spent targeting Dion well spent after all? It would appear most women voters don't think so...

PM Harper has for his entire time in office and even with all the free gifts of Liberal political misfortune, still manages only to be a minority government PM in the minds of voters. Canadians who actually vote are still not ready to give PM Harper a majority, likely because of all his flip flops (income trust, environment, trashing Rona Ambrose, etc.) but mostly because they run the country by commissioning and governing by partisan polls (aka tea leaves) and so appear to lack vision.

So as we enter 2008 the prospects of an election are approaching 100% and the "new" (read uncorrupt and competent) Conservative government is tied in the polls with the "old" (read Gomery) Liberals. This is not good especially so after the Conservatives have consistently been flirting with polls just slightly south of majority government territory for two full years. How remarkable is that?

Funny how a former conservative PM taking large amounts of cash in envelopes may possibly have had a negative impact on the current PM's electoral prospects. So its 2008 and its the Conservatives who will be not wanting an election because it will be an old fashioned foot race, may the best vision for Canada win - merci Mr. Schreiber. Shades of Gomery going on here for the Conservatives?

The party with the most to lose will not pull the election trigger - my guess is that Dion will bring down the government very early in 2008 prior to a budget. That will force the Conservatives to run on their record of flip flops and the Air Bus scandal and not a new budget full of goodies. Given that Dion must be feeling a lot luckier looking forward to 2008 than he did going through 2007.

DigbyOU812

[updated Sun Dec 30 13:53:21 EST 2007]

While I, like so many others who have responded to this post, agree with your assessment of the past year and most of the political prognostication for 2008, I don't understand your comment that "the challenge [for the Conservatives] will be to convert the goodwill from Stephen Harper’s performance as Prime Minister and general optimism related to the economy into the ballot box." I agree that there is general optimism about the economy, but where is the evidence that there is any goodwill among Canadians for Stephen Harper? I was watching a World Junior hockey game during the holidays with family and friends and Harper came on with some kind of statement of good wishes for Canada's junior team. I couldn't believe the vitriolic response to his simply showing up on the TV screen - people hate him. Perhaps it has something to do with where we were all from - Eastern Canada. It seemed obvious to me Harper has very few friends here. I think the proof will come in the 2008 federal election, which will happen this spring. We have a divided country and the election results will mirror that division.

[updated Mon Dec 31 09:13:18 EST 2007]

Keen another Liberal appointed and another stupid Liberal Creation

[updated Wed Jan 09 00:01:55 EST 2008]

Fire Keen not Lunn, Liberal appointments are the main cause of problems in this country, this Watch dog should be reporting to Parliament every second of the Day.
Lberals Fools in this Country,and Dion is the biggest fool.

[updated Wed Jan 09 20:54:31 EST 2008]

2008 should be the year in Canadian Politics to abolish the Privy Council Office and Department a total waste of money. I would not trust anyone of them in the group photo on government of Canada website. And it does not matter who is the PM , Liberal, Tory, NDP this Office is a problem along with the PMO.

[updated Thu Jan 10 14:10:26 EST 2008]

Time to get rid of Emerson as Trade Minister, we cannot have China dictating the topics of the speak, Canadian Values must be protected at all times, Democracy, Human Rights, I do not need China or their immigrants in Canada, We do not want China coming to the 2010 either, no products imported it is all junk. Canadian government must step up the unmanned drones program to keep a eye on these Chinese in China.

[updated Fri Jan 11 14:46:28 EST 2008]

Message To You Political Experts, forget Mulroney for the moment, Does anyone know why Jean Chretien is not in Jail. ( Lets see Sponsorship Program, HRDC, Gun Control Mess) Was it the lack of a competant RCMP Commissioner? Tell Canadians your opinions!

[updated Fri Jan 11 20:04:52 EST 2008]

What are the chances that Linda Keen will keep her job?

[updated Fri Jan 11 20:06:26 EST 2008]

The question for 2008 is Why is Jean Chretien Not In Jail, There must a Inquiry to find out Why. "The Why Is Jean Chretien Not In Jail Inquiry" should start soon!

[updated Sun Jan 13 20:36:35 EST 2008]

The RCMP in 2008, and why this Organization of Police has gone downhill and still doing so, having spoken to those once in the force.

No 1 Hiring Females directly out of University, The main reason for the use of Tazsers, because their to small, to weak, to deal with issues like the YVR.

No 2 Hiring individuals below 5' 10"

No 3 Allowing Turbans

No 4 Hiring to many Ethnics with Relegious Beliefs, No Muslim should ever be allowed to be in the RCMP, this Religious Group cannot be trusted, just look at the Honor Killings in Texas and the Indians from India in Maple Rights, should be no Indians (India) they cannot investigate their own group.

How do think about this!

[updated Mon Jan 14 15:26:04 EST 2008]

This Question still has to be Answered wether you like it or not, no matter what party you belong or support! Why has Jean Chretien not been arrested and in Jail. Who is responsible for this?

[updated Tue Jan 15 18:42:16 EST 2008]

Keen has been fired as I predicted, the mouthy female Liberal appointment deserved it just like many others should, and sooner the better

Keen Fired that is Great.

[updated Wed Jan 16 13:22:02 EST 2008]

Firing Linda Keen was the best political move made by any government in the last 15 years, the Liberals would not fire anyone even if they were Crooks. Help who was that dumb ass Liberal in Alberta who a Liberal minister who woud not fire anyone, a lawyer with a big mouth, What was her Name???

[updated Thu Jan 17 13:52:14 EST 2008]

Does not matter which party, Quebec's have their finger in the pie , Josee Verner is a Conservative that must lose her job also, 110 million for Quebec which in the Globe an Mail to day has proven to be a failure. Zero money has gone British Columbia, before 4 pm to day a head count of how many French Canadian Civil Servants are employe in this Ministry and reduced immediately if the total is over Quebec percentage of the Populaton, this nothing but another Sponsorship Program under the Conservatives, Im a supporter but Josee Verner must go now.

[updated Fri Jan 18 16:57:01 EST 2008]

Question of the Day: Is Josee Verner another Linda Keen?

[updated Fri Jan 18 18:12:31 EST 2008]

What are the Odds of Dion being Prime Minister of Canada, I say 50 to 1, What do you think?

[updated Sun Jan 20 15:28:50 EST 2008]