New Nanos Poll - Canadians moving away from all party leaders

From past experience, considering the last two Canadian Prime Ministers, it looks like it's an advantage to start off unpopular, then build from there. Look at Chretien and Harper - both started off well behind in polls such as this one, then ended up with varying levels of success. Paul Martin, starting off higher up in the leadership polls, ended up with a slow and steady decline.

Perhaps we live in an era where Canadians must build trust in their leaders as opposed to having them explode right out of the gate?

Trying to view these numbers as unbiased as possible (plus taking history into account), it looks as though Dion has the advantage for a potential surge. The only way is up for him. Can it get any lower? You never know.

The fact that Dion's party has not been afflicted with similar numbers, and Harper's party isn't particularly soaring, shows that there is a strong potential for a numerical reversal of fortunes for Dion. If the Liberals were polling close-to or below NDP numbers, then that would perhaps be an insurmountable problem.

[updated Mon Dec 03 02:37:44 EST 2007]

Ah, Nik, Canadian politics ! ! ! An election is like taking a bath, having a clean change of clothes and smelling like violets. Could one say that is a "fresh start"? The only trouble is not keeping up the routine of regular bathing and changing into clean clothes on a daily basis thus the stinkier it gets and the odour is likely to linger. I bet the Schreiber affair has a lot more to reveal. Harper, who has loudly proclaimed the high road in all things political, is likely to find his courted embrace of Mulroney could be likened now to the kiss of death.

But, does Harper have to worry ? Here the electorate has to consider the political alternatives. That is not an exciting prospect so Harper really can hold his ground but I do not think he could gain ground. Now, if the Liberals were led by Ignatieff, I believe Harper would have real cause to worry.

In my riding, the local Liberal Association has remained in suspended animation or is still hiding in a hole since the last election.---Dead???---The local conservative MP is not inclined to accept or tolerate opinions that differ to his in this democratic process. Yes, I think I will move away from the traditional parties in the coming election and look for a better alternative that may honestly address the people's business. But, then, politics not being the most ethical of sports, I am likely in dreamland too ! ! !

[updated Mon Dec 03 03:48:29 EST 2007]

I for one am sick of listening to the non-stop frenzy from the Liberals and the fifth estate over something that may have transpired some 14 years ago between private citizen Karlheinz Schreiber and private citizen Brian Mulroney. No taxpayer dollars were involved and the amount ($300,000) is relatively piddling. This should be one paragraph at the bottom of page 14 of most papers, apart from a tabloid-like fascination with famous people in certain quarters. I can't believe that Parliament is wasting one second on it. With a deficient medicare system, crumbling infrastructure, manufacturing jobs fleeing central Canada for offshore, and a problem with violence, gangs and drugs in our cities, surely we have more important things on which to focus. Nobody that I have met in the past two weeks has raised this as a topic of interest on their own.

If the chattering class must focus on gross failures in leadership, perhaps the media could shift its attention to the millions of actual taxpayer dollars that were misappropriated under the watch of a recent sitting Liberal prime minister and his cast of characters, and focus on recovering all of it on behalf of the taxpayers who were cheated.

[updated Mon Dec 03 08:12:55 EST 2007]

The Schreiber affair is turning into a farce with the Liberals only intent to try and stick scandal to Mr. Harper. Schreiber clearly said he had no contact with Harper or his office. Now the attack is focused on any person, alive or dead, who may have known, worked for and been within 50 feet of Brian Mulroney. It is disgusting and it shows the degree to which politics has continued to decline in its relevency to the Canadian population.

As someone has already said this "scandal" happened 5 prime ministers ago and it is about a private matter between two inidividuals. There will be no real evidence that will clear this thing up in the parliamentary committee because they are not interested in what really happened but to score political points. which may help in the polls. I suspect that the public inquiry will be very narrow in its focus i.e. when did the arrangement for the $300.00 take place and is there anything new in respect to the Liberal government's payment of $2.1 million to cover Mulroney's legal fees.

As for the poll by Nanos I would point out to my Liberal friends that Mr. Harper is still miles ahead of the weak Liberal leader with this polling having been the consistent theme since Dion was elected leader. The Liberals have not been ahead in the polls for two years. That should give Dion and his cadre pause for concern. However, anybody who listens to Dion with his over the top rhetoric knows he is bluffing and really does not have control of the party nor is the party ready for an election. The party knows they are stuck with this turkey until after the next election.

I will acknowlege that the Conservatives are having trouble breaking through in Ontario because they love their socialists programs whether they are effective or not. Because Ontario is the largest province they form the largest segment of any poll and therefore the Conservative numbers are held down. However, Ontario and the Maritimes will not give the Liberals even a minority government.

The vote splits will see 3 or 4 left wing parties vying for the same voters which may allow the Conservatives to come up the middle (even in Ontario). The other issue is leadership. While my Liberal friends keep pointing to the fact that with a slow start Dion will get stronger as time goes by. I am afraid they are misguided. Mr. Dion is not a politician but a professor who thinks like a professor. He lectures but cannot execute. Any politician who thinks he can achieve results by writing letters to anybody and everybody simply does not understand politics. He will need to sell his policies and vision verbally. Without the ability to communicate effectively in the language of the majority he will fail in this regard and Harper will be more convincing.

[updated Mon Dec 03 11:00:39 EST 2007]

Many people are sick and tired of Shreiber already and we have only experienced one Ethics Committee meeting! There will be several weeks of this followed by very long sessions in the formal inquiry. The electorate wiill be so weary of this entire farce that people will be looking for a political party to hang with it. Chasing a very old story about $300,000 exchanged between two private citizens will wear very thin indeed. Hold on to your wallet, it is going to cost millions.

[updated Mon Dec 03 18:40:13 EST 2007]

The trick for Harper is to convert his personal ranking into party ratings which he hasn't been able to accomplish thus far.

Dion on the other hand appears to spinning his wheels in then the mud. His many years as a professor and being an academic most of his life is not doing him any favours and may even be a factor in his lack of popularity and leadership perceptions. He will be replaced if the Liberals do not win the next election which doesn't appear likely thus far.

The electorate seems to be satisfied with a minority government and the Conservatives have manged to retain power in a minority situation longer then most previous minority governments because of a very weak and fractured opposition who don't seem to even agree on the time of day. Harper may be able to continue if the parties remain split as they have been. The Liberals are saying they will bring down the government likely in February but they can not do it without the hep of the other opposition parties.

[updated Wed Dec 05 04:42:52 EST 2007]

Hello Nik.

I have a somewhat different perspective on this one.

Mr. Schreiber is no fool. He has been someone's patsy, and is using all he can to stay in this Country, rather than being deported to Germany to stand trial. He has opened a can of worms, and because political parties thought they would score points, thought that they would benefit from this. I don't think so. I think that some are digging their own hole! Mr. Schreiber is a Judge, in his own right. If the ranking MP's cannot understand fully what he is acknowledging, then they can perhaps get him an interpretter? Mr. Schreiber knows full well what he is about. Perhaps, he just doesn't want to go too far? Perhaps he is trying to be a little discriminating as to whom he really wants to bring down with him? Who knows?

Furthermore, please correct me if I am wrong, but isen't there a law that states that one cannot be tried for the same offence twice?

Let's not be too naive. Everybody knew he was an arms dealer, and how do we imagine business is conducted in any Country. Deals are made, and some get richer!

It all started because, perhaps, the medias could not get their 'election', so they focussed on a possible scandal. The Press should certainly know more about this recount, because they followed this closely at the time Mr. Mulroney went before the Commission. What I still do not understand is why this gov/t was so quick to step back from associating with this person, who has been advising them?

The vitrial that exists in our Parliament House is extremely damaging to all parties, and does not ensure voter appreciation, and participation; soon we may all want to tune-out!

Need I mention the meaness expressed by some NDP party member to one of it's opposing party members, just yesterday. Since when do we accuse before even entertaining and confronting with a proper discussion? We are becoming so righteous that the presumption of innocence is often forgotten.

Why aren't questions being answered daily in the House? Haven't we got the right to those answers in the House, rather than raking personal attacks on all.

The Journal de Mtl's headline yesterday was abominable...Not even worth repeating, but most discrediting to a man whom I have always perceived as honest, and trustworthy . We seem to be thriving on scandals. Do they really sell? And to whom?

Answsers as to why M. Masse was fired would be far more revealing about our present government. That the Accountability Act was remediated would be another point of approval for voters.

That M. Dion, honourable as always, who deemed that the Schreiber/Mulroney affair, was not, as he proudly stated in the medias, "a gift to his party", or for anybody, for that matter, does not get as much attention. Of course one cannot perceive M. Dion as a scandalmonger; but does that make him less interesting? Less intelligent?

M. Dion was more than short-changed since he has been Opposition Leader, because he has been attacked on all fronts, and personally, on minor, and very low key issues, that seem to have kept audiences distracted from the real issues that we should be really concerned about, and about the answers to which we have a right to know, but are not getting from this present government.

When are we Canadians going to lift our ideals above condemnation, to aspirations for the betterment of all Canadians and their lot. I guess we do not have any serious problems, because we seem to want to waster our time cherry-picking, and creating scandals, that we might be stuck to pay for. In the meantime, the real issues will stay on the back-burner!

What about what is happening in Afghanistan?

Hope that we wisen up for our own good, and the good of this Country. Hope that we at least give decent people a chance to show us their mettle! Not to do so, could put us at a great disadvantage.

As for S. Harper, I would think that he must have benefitted from the millions that he poured into ad scams against M. Dion; Shouldn't those dollars have been better spent repairing our infrastructures, pot holes, health-care, Education, etc...etc...etc...?

Cheers Nik, and congratulations with your new poll! Keep-up the good work.

blos

[updated Thu Dec 06 21:32:03 EST 2007]

It is a fact that if you sling mud, you will get mud on you.

The most interesting thing about this poll is the other parties are taking the biggest hit.

[updated Thu Dec 13 02:54:14 EST 2007]

It is of no surprise to me that the party leaders are all losing support. There isn't one of them that is a "Stand Up" guy. The past decade has seen the quality of those leading this country to continue to diminish. We need leaders who stand up for a belief and not just for looking out for their political survival or the well being of special interests and to make their decisions for the right reasons.

Regards,

[updated Fri Jan 04 16:15:20 EST 2008]