Latest Nanos Poll - Federal Deadlock - Tories 35, Grits 34, NDP 17, Bloc 9, Green 6

I believe the polls are understating the support for the Conservatives and are not reflective of what will happen in a general election. Mr. Dion has pulled his party decidedly to the left and therefore the Libs will be fishing in the same pond as the NDP, Greens and the Bloc in Quebec at the time of the next election. This will allow the Conservatives to come up the middle in a lot of ridings where there is a three or four way fight.
Even if the Libs win all the ridings in the GTA they cannot form government. While I am sure Harper would like a majority he will take a minority government if that is the decision of the Canadian people.
As well, while the poll indicates that Canadians are not particularly ennamoured with any of the leaders they will only have really two choices and that is Harper or Dion. Mr. Harper will put forward his ideas in a thoughtful and concise manner which makes hime appear decisive while Dion will come across as the professor who is lecturing in a classroom. As well Dion has the added disadvantage of not having a grasp of the English language sufficient to allow him to put his point across clearly and in such a manner that people will be able to understand what his point is.
Dion has another disadvantage in an election. This will be his first campaign while this will be Harper's 3 or 4th. Dion does not have the political skills yet as evidenced by his blurting out that he may increase the GST if elected.
Dion's message is garbled and if he keeps on the same tract he is on how will he be able to promote, meeting the Kyoto targets, giving broadbased personal income tax cuts, reduce corporate taxes, reducing proverty, providing a national daycare program and of course the infamous Kelowna Accord to name just a few? These programs even if introduced over a mandate would require a massive increase in taxes.
So while the polls maybe telling pollsters something today I would suggest that the reality of an election campaign will be much different.

[updated Wed Nov 14 20:40:49 -0500 2007]

Nik,

The challenge for Dion is to define himself in the eyes of Canadians, and in the face of a well-funded Conservative effort to keep him vaguely defined as "not a leader".

The challenge for the Prime Minister, by contrast (aside from the obvious challenges of the Mulroney-Schreiber affair), is that as his image becomes increasingly well-defined for Canadians after almost two years in government, there's still some discomfort out there with some aspects of his leadership style, his policies and his personality. In Ontario, in particular, the Tories' negatives seem to be keeping the Liberals in the lead. You're perhaps right to suggest that it's the Liberal "brand" that's at work here.

Given all of this, I wonder if the good news in all of this for Dion isn't one about growth potential. You're quoted in the Edmonton Sun saying "the thing that really jumps out is that Canadians are really at a loss to try and describe what they like or dislike about the man -- and he's been leader for almost a year." While it does suggest difficulty getting traction (again, not unique to this particular opposition leader), it's also striking that his negatives still seem to be quite low, despite all the attack ads. What do you make of this?

NB

[updated Wed Nov 14 20:56:02 -0500 2007]

The Conservative Party is more correctly the Harper Party thus it is Harper who is in the bullseye. The RECENT initiatives of Harper appear to be in general favour, and I mostly agree, but it is not what he has done but rather what he has NOT done. He has not unequivocally divorced himself from ever opening the divisive social issues of the past, for example, same sex unions, abortion. He has not said definitively that Canadian
Forces will completely pull out of Afghanistan in February 2009. He has not cleared up the dust and BS surrounding the global warming issues for Canada. He has not remembered the hospital wait time promises from the last election. What happens with these and other issues if he does get a majority ? ? ?----no wonder uncertainty surrounds him like a fog.

On the other hand, Dion has had long enough to get himself and his party in order and does not deserve more time. Hell ! ! !----this is the government of Canada and not some social function. Dion does manage to shoot himself in the foot, for example, his ill thought out remark regarding the cut in the GST. Personally, I think no tax is a good tax but Dion, I suppose, thinks otherwise and this does not inspire my support. Dion continues to offer counterpoint argument to the Harper initiatives but omits to offer CLEAR Liberal alternatives. Yet, the Liberal Party, so your poll says, not Dion, still maintains a favoured position with the electorate and I am a centrist.

Harper is the ideal CEO to lead his party and if he disappeared, so would the prominance of his party. Harper is the party with no heir apparent in sight and this is a deadly situation in the business world. Dion has not grown effectively into the role of party leader and if he disappeared, the party would prosper with a number of heirs apparent.

Such contrasts-----a strong leader of a party with lesser appeal and a weak leader of a party with wider appeal ! ! !

[updated Wed Nov 14 21:48:02 -0500 2007]

Good questions and assertions, Nik.

My own feelings on it is that the Conservatives have blundered recently in the last week, disallowing two Con candidates in Ont for no real apparent reasons why, other than one MP not keeping "in step" or being a "yes" man as all goes through the PM's office these days http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/10/31/dropped-candidates.html?ref=rss
and the other, presumably moved for a better candidate (running in Bob Rae's riding). This comes after Garth Turners outing earlier in the year as he wasn't exactly known as being a yes man either, and Garth was popular within the average voter in Ontario. Things could become a true nightmare for the Cons in a PR sense if they continue on with this path. McGuinty's popularity as premier in Ontario in spite of what the media had to say before the election, is strong. And that is most definitely the "Liberal brand" you are talking about Nik. If the Liberals hold their support at 9% or add to it, Ontario will be red in the next election and thats not small with 105 seats out of 308 in play.

Dion has major struggles ahead of him in Quebec. While Ontario is a major battleground with 105 seats, so is Quebec with 74, 75? If Dion is smart (and I believe he is), he will wait until there are signs of a Liberal majority and that will take Conservative blunders, or scandal. Dion needs Quebec if he's to think about a majority or strong minority, and that window has not yet appeared. Quebecers will go on about Liberal scandal for decades... Dion's only savior at this point? Conservative scandal of which there are two potentially brewing. The Mulroney factor, which could end tomarrow, if Rob Nicolson has his way (a known paid crowd heckler by the Republican party in efforts to get a Senator elected) and has Shrieber extradited... and the close ties Can West has with the Conservative party itself.

Media has such a major role to play with this. Can West, owners of the Montreal Gazette, Ottawa Citizen, the Sun's country wide, the National post, the Calgary Herald, Global and others, are unabashedly supported by Israel's Asper family, who has controlling interest of Can West Media. What is interesting, perhaps scandalous, is the closeness of the Conservative party and Can West in terms of fund raisings and political leanings.

I think it will be hard, if not impossible for Harper to repair his past image with people who've been aware of his rise since the start. His 5 years as president of the National Citizens Coalition doesn't help. This organization, known to be a large and powerful group of U.S. born multinationals, is largely made up of oil, HMO's and insurance companies who have tried to penetrate and take over Canadian economic sectors in these areas.

While the average Canadian believes much of Canada is already owned by the U.S., thats not quite true. Even though the U.S. owns the majority of our commodities, Canadians own their Grain markets (wheat board), Medicare, insurance (with various crowns in the nation providing by far and away cheaper insurance in provinces that have them instead of not having them like the eastern provinces), media (to a degree with the CBC), police, and naturally, banks. Most of the banks in Canada are home bred. These economic sectors have been regulated for a reason, specifically to keep these sectors "Canadian". From where Harper has been (the NCC and Alliance) his vision of Canada is quite different. So too, it his decentralization of federal powers with an elected Senate, or none at all. For those who are in the know, Harper's past as a corporate lobbyist is not forgotten, and nor is his actions of appointing an unelected party official as a cabinet minister (Fortier), as well as embracing David Emerson, a former Liberal MP with 7 directorships into the minister of trade, and O'Connors, a well known defense lobbyist as a minister of defense. Everything Harper does, it seems, embraces three major supporters... Israel's Asper family, (the largest shareholders of Can West Media, the largest media outlet in Canada) The Republican party (of which the NCC and Republicans have thick ties) and most importantly, U.S. born multi-nationals themselves.

It will become awfully hard for Harper to hide his past/present affiliations as time rolls on and I cannot see any who are already aware of these allegiances and not supporting him, changing their minds any time soon.

But one never knows. The media is obviously pro Conservative in this country now and the most issues could get sidelined for the milder issues that become election issues and from there, its not about the best government, but the best run campaign and they've got good help with the Republican parties best organizer from the U.S.

One never knows...

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[updated Wed Nov 14 22:01:20 -0500 2007]

Nick, I think your party poll continues to tell me the popularity poll is a waste of time and money. Or, maybe Canadians are simply starting to look beyond the leader and watching what the party is saying to them.

Dion is laying low to salvage his ID and will need a fantastic campaign if he is to win a majority. Harper will have to succesfully sluff off the taint his party is now being saddled with and the continued perception that he is not who he tries to portray himself as. The opposition will surely play that feature up in an election.

I hoping the Greens will finally get some seats and get them from the NDP who have gone beyond Layon's best before date.

[updated Wed Nov 14 22:02:21 -0500 2007]

Nik : While you continue to run the best polls we have, what's with this "West" category?
"West" could mean you get all or none of your responses from Alberta. Do you really see no percentage in differentiating between Alberta and the other three provinces?

[updated Thu Nov 15 01:27:44 -0500 2007]

The polls appear very consistant. One poll I saw 3 or 4 days ago gave the Conservatives and the Liberals tied at 32%, but it showed the Green one point ahead of the NDP. I question that last stat.
As for leadeship that's a useless category. Only a few old fuddie-duddies believs in leadership anymore. That's for the private arena. In public life, most educated people and nearly all young people want a follower, one who will do the public will.
Someone who tries to seek out the will of the people and do their bidding. Harper is the antithesis of that.
What can they do? Be themselve, tho, doing so will be of no benefit to Harper. Layton could return to principal, rather than political opportunism. I don't know Dion well enough yet. He seems a decent, honest very intelligent person but not known to the public. He has to "expose" himself.
As for party, many are subjugating that to policy. It' s not the party but the party's policies that count. Bring in good policy and we will vote for you regardless of party. Oh, there are a few dinosaurs out there who will cling to the archaic concept of party. They can never understand why others have moved on ahead of them.to better political thought.
How can a pary improve it's standing? Easy. Just find out what the people want and do it. There are a few basic policies that the majority all across Canada would subscribe to. All a party has to do is find out, establish the priorities and sell those .
Environment, poverty, foreign policy, justice, health, education and infrastructure are examples they could turn their thoughts to.

I will be voting Green until or unless the other parties can come up with something better.

[updated Thu Nov 15 09:11:44 -0500 2007]

Much cheered by these results.

I feel that there is considerable latent resistance to the Harper government in the population today but very few direct means of expressing it. Its now a bit beyond the grumbling stage and moving into anger at seeing cherished notions such as peacekeeping and the absence of capital punishment vanishing under the treads of the not so congenial Conservative machine. Clearly Mr. Dion does not particularly appeal to many voters. I believe he is widely perceived as an effeminate individual, perhaps a bit of an esthete and perpetual dog walker, and therefore not well suited to forcefully presenting biting negative interpretations of the Harper crew and its machinations. Part is annoyance at his english speaking abilities as well. You just want him to spit out the marbles and say 'these people are nasty and they want to destroy your community institutions' really loudly. The higher support for the Liberal brand also suggests to me that many voters are well primed for just such a slash and burn message forcibly directed at the Tories or whatever we are supposed to call them collectively.

I also think that Layton has largely failed to establish a moderate left alternative to the Liberals because he comes across as a very conservative man who looks inept in anything but a suit and tie. No lunch bucket appeal at all. Might just be the time for unite the left as a matter of fact, or more realistically a cooperative candidate selection mechanism wherein only a Liberal or an NDP would run in each riding. A preelectoral coalition of a sort which does not presently exist. Not sure what to do with the Greens. They seem utterly rudderless and deeply confused to me. Maybe their support derives from their unthreatening fecklessness. Who knows.

For me, almost anything would be better than the authoritarian bullying of Harper and his dour band of primitive Christians. I thought John Calvin died ages ago. ["Calvin has become more widely known because of his uncompromising theological and moral positions and for instituting a harsh, repressive theocratic government in Geneva."] That about captures it.

[updated Thu Nov 15 18:32:13 -0500 2007]

There has been another poll (Ipsos-Reid) released today (Jan 3, '08) which supports your own observations -- three-quarters (73%) of Canadians believe that there is a good chance that there will be a federal election called in Canada in 2008, and two-thirds (63%) believe that Stephen Harper will be re-elected. However, slightly less that one-third (31%) believe that the Harper Conservatives will get a majority government. I also see from your leadership tracking stats that although Harper is well-ahead (compared with Dion) in the "Who do you think would make the best PM?" question, the Unsure or None of the Above is actually leading. There is an undoubted paucity of leadership in Canada today. I am interested in your comment that the Conservatives have to fight the Liberal "brand" in order to move the dial. That begs the question of what or who are they fighting now? The answer appears to be Dion (witness the attack ads on Dion). It would appear that Liberal supporters are not easily swayed, and they hold other things in their hierarchy of political needs more dearly than good leadership. That's an interesting observation - if indeed it is true. When I studied political science at the Master's level, I was fascinated with the question of voter preference. I was convinced that leadership was very near the top - if not the top - when a voter decided his/her preference. The dilemma for the Conservatives appears to be that despite facing a leader in Dion who obviously does not have a competent command of the English language, and often comes across as aloof and too professorial, the Conservatives are having their own problems as they have been unable to hoist Harper on a higher pedestal. It would appear people are still having trouble accepting him. Perhaps because he, too, has some issues that Canadians find unsettling - too much of a policy wonk, too cold and uncaring, not genuine enough and a bit of a liar (Canadians will remember the income trust betrayal - and for Nova Scotians and Newfoundlanders - the Atlantic Accord betrayal) . Canadians don't like people who lie to them.

[updated Thu Jan 03 12:31:33 -0500 2008]

The Prime Minister will have to start be more interested in the veracity of statements eminating from him and his group of spokesmen. The results of May,s Polls after the duffy wright deal, Wallin inquiry and general behavior of this out of control Conservative Party could show a significant change in the male supporters of Harper,s mendacious stand in the information now resently eminating from the P.P.O.

[updated Sun May 26 23:29:00 -0400 2013]