Duceppe Provokes Election Showdown

I had already expected a Throne Speech that would appeal to the centre while not giving a centimetre on Afghanistan or Kyoto. The target of that was Dion and the Liberals, given Dion's recent attempts to get some ink daily on these sorts of issues as well.

I believe that between Dion's blabbering and Duceppe's blustering this week the Prime Minister will have the Governor-General present a strong and aggressive Throne Speech, one that is an election platform. If either Dion or Duceppe fold in the face of it, they further damage their parties for the next campaign. If they decide to vote non-confidence and trigger an election, the Liberals have money woes and an incomplete platform and policy process that will undoubtedly lead to gaffes on the campaign trail (a lesson Harper learned well between 2004 and 2006, as Tom Flanagan noted in his article in the Globe & Mail today). Duceppe may well figure that his best chance at holding onto a significant block of seats is now rather than later, and in that he is probably correct.

The real wild card is Layton. The NDP should hold most of what it has, but it's probably not ready to make gains, unless Layton's strategy is to carve up the Liberals and try to become the Official Opposition to a Conservative Majority. That's probably a gamble a little too steep for his party, though.

No matter what the outcome of the confidence vote is, though, the only way I see Harper losing out of all of this is if he produces a Throne Speech that is wishy-washy.

Even before Duceppe made this announcement I didn't see any of the opposition parties supporting Harper's throne speech.

As Chantal Hebert has also pointed out, Duceppe can't keep propping Harper up and also argue that Harper is bad for Quebec.

Layton and Dion are both in a race to see who can stand up to Harper most effectively.

Unless Harper gives one of these parties some major concessions — which I don't see happening — I think we really could see an election this fall.

When Harper decided to set up this confidence showdown, he had to have been ready for the possibility of an election. And I think we're seeing that possibility unfold and develop.

Stay tuned.

[updated Sat Sep 22 19:51:43 EDT 2007]

The most interesting aspect of Duceppe's challenge will be watching the Liberal response. It seems to me that Duceppe has put the Liberals between a rock and a hard place. They'll have to crawl off the fence and come down on one side or the other. They can support Harper, thereby proving that there isn't a dime's worth of difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives. That is, aside from some social conservative issues ... but then there are social conservatives in the Liberal party as well. Or they can vote to defeat Harper and I believe that would be their best strategy. So far their "me too" non opposition to Harper has given the voters exactly ZERO reasons to vote Liberal. The NDP and the Greens are going nowhere no matter what the Liberals decide to do, although the NDP could possibly revive some of their former support in Sask and Man. There is no question that Harper has lost the support of a lot of Westerners. Just how badly he has wounded himself is not easy to estimate. A lot may depend on the weather. It has been so cold and wet that a lot of the 2007 crop is still in the fields. If the farmers get snowed under, they may be in a mood to vote against the incumbents. On the other hand, Harper could give them another few billions and perhaps buy their votes one more time. It should be interesting to watch the jostling for position in the next couple of weeks.

these demands are worded in a somewhat benign sort of way.The wording is loose enough that a compromise isn't out of the question. Lets imagine Harper decides not to play along with the demands, then it's up to the liberals to vote no, and there in no mood or shape to go towards an election UNLESS they intend to lose and then turf Dion. The ndp will vote against it because they are so unrealistic as to how the real world is, they vote always against the Tories. In short one of the two larger opposition parties will prop up the throne speech,my guess the Grits!

[updated Sat Sep 22 20:10:29 EDT 2007]

I believe an election this fall was to be expected.Somehow all 3 opposition parties would not be able to sustain their fabricated opposition games much longer.
As for the Govt. it would be a welcome exercise to establish a firm mandate to follow through on much needed work to be done for the benefit of this great Country. Duceppe is desparate, and a election defeat for the party will likely be better to swallow than anything taking place in the House of commons, after the Throne Speech. As for Dion it may be the end of a difficult situation he would undoubtedly be in without an election.Eitherway to be leader of the Liberal party would not be an envious position, with all the scwabbling which has gone on for the last little while. Jack Layton will mainly be irrelevant.

I still doubt that there will be a fall election. Even though it is traditionally the job of the opposition to oppose, the Conservatives abstained from voting against the budget in 2005, so the Liberals could easily follow suit. They could have Stephane Dion and the key shadow cabinet members vote against the budget to show their lack of support but have the bulk of the party not vote so the government would survive.
The Liberals are still trailing badly in fund raising and the leadership candidates still have significant debts to pay off so they are not well positioned at this point.
They are dropping hints that they have some new policies in the can but I would guess they would be better prepared in the spring so the budget would be a more likely time for the government to fall.

Seems to me that the Conservatives and the BQ have been working well together during the current Conservative mandate... BQ support in the House as a case in point. But now, with the recent Conservative win in Quebec over the BQ, the leadership infighting showing again on the part of the Liberals, and the relative weakness of both the NDP and the Greens, it would seem the conditions may be ripe for a run for a majority this fall. So this ultimatum is not surprising and may be a reflection of further Bloc Conservative cooperation.

Duceppe is playing into the PM's hand here. With the Grits reelling from the 3 by-elections and the BQ doing none too better (St Hayacinthe was a given, and despite that the Tories made it very very close) the PM is in a good position. The polling might not be great, and the Afghanistan mission might weigh on his government, but there comes a time when you just have to pull the trigger; and this could be it. It's obvious the Grits have serious internal problems not the least of which is fundraising. The Bloc is being pushed to the side (although not eliminated) as federalists in Quebec come to the realization they seem to have a second option. The Dippers coming off their first every victory in PQ are riding high, but how high can they realistically climb in Canadian federal politcs?

As to the actual demands they're pretty cut and dry.
The PM is not going to unilaterally withdraw at 02/09 like some want. He will, at a MINIMUM, shift the forces to 'safer' ground at that time if not return them back to Kandahar for a new tour. So strike 1.

Elimination of federal encroachment is something the PM holds as one of his core beliefs so I'm not sure of the complaint here unless Duceppe thinks the PM is moving too slow.

Kyoto is a hot potato for sure. And the PM is doing his damndest not to hold onto it too long. Parts of his base doesn't even believe it, others don't want to pay for it, and the last bunch actually think we should do something about it. Of the group this is the PM's only achilles heel in a general election.

On the last two of Duceppes points it is obvious the PM is opposed to 'interventionist' government so I'm guessing these (as well as the Afghan point) are the 'triggers' in Duceppes press release.

I'm guessing the PM will let Duceppe call the bluff and we'll be off to an election unless Giles blinks first.

Harper does not need Duceppe for anything and to try and deal with him just undermines the Cons position in Quebec as the Bloc alternative for the soft nationalists. The real story here is Layton now has enough votes in the NDP alone to keep Harper in power. Harper need Jack and he "Don't Know Jack" much ether.

Layton managed to change the Martin Budget and delightedin calling it the first federal NDP budget in history. I wonder what Jack will want to see in a Harper Throne speech to keep the Dippers happy and Hparer in power.

THAT is the political power play that is more important than any dealings with Duceppe the Dupe.

Is Duceppe challenging only Harper, or having seen the results of the recent by-elections is he hoping to do damage in Liberal strongholds. It is an interesting gamble and one that at this time seems to be bent on taking advantage of the Liberals perceived weaknesses. On the other hand Harper holds all the cards and his Throne speech could either tread lightly on the issues that Duceppe has raised or accept Ducuppe's challenge, knowing that more casualties in Afghanistan could lose him support in Quebec. Harper has already changed his stand on Afghanistan. Peter Mackay and other ministers have been singing another tune recently. From talking about consensus on extending the mission they now say that we should be there as long as necessary. We are in for a roller coaster in the next few months.

Hello Nik,

The word "destabilizing" came to my mind also...

I have complained for some time that no one is paying attention to our provincial politics in Qc, and that no one seems to believe that there is an undermining current to gather momentum from both the 'bloc' and the 'pq'...for renewed sovereignty momemtum. They are both desperate parties with no options, and the silent Anglo minority in this Province is appalling.

They are taking advantage of all Federalist parties present frailties, and bluffing for their very own reason of existance as a party. How hippocritical for the 'bloc' when they voted three times with the Harper gov/t., especially on the softwood lumber deal.

Jack Layton's reaction is going to be the most interesting for me.

Cheers,

Canadian politics of late is theatre which, in turn, is usually make believe. Or, our federal politics could be likened to a fencing game with the thrust and the parry-----the deal and the compromise. ALL the parties have been playing in this venue in the last TWO governments so what is new ? As Mulroney said, once elected a government uses every device to stay in power as long as possible-----not inexpensive for the electorate's pocket book as we have all observed.

Having said the foregoing, more power to Ducette if he can trigger a general election if the pay-off to him is not there. It is about time this government of Canada mess is cleared up for the benefit of the whole country. I am sure if we end up in another minority situation, political "leadership" for all parties, especially the major parties, will change and that maybe a good change.

Yes, this is a surprising development. Then again on the other hand not much suprises me. When the decision making resides in the leader of the party and not in a committee or board of directors anything can happen. It may be a fleeting whim or a change of brain chemistry.
The only rational that I can see is that Duceppe sees the writing on the wall. The longer that erosion is taking the worse it gets. So if he is going anyway he may as well give one last shot and hope hope that those wavering will stick with him one more time. If he doesn't do anything he will be gone anyway.
I can't see Harper agreeing to those demands, especially numbers 2 and 3.
Also I can't see either the LIberals or NDP supporting Harper any longer either.Otherwise they would be losing credibility themselves and the support of some of their wavering voters.
What Harper does depends on how he perceives the by-elections results and the Ontario provincial elections. If those convince him that his support is rising or the Liberals are waning he will welcome an elections and say the opposition brought it on.
Interesting times!

I agree. An analysis of the various opposing forces indicates, to me anyways, that the Conservatives won’t be defeated in a confidence vote anytime soon. The recent by-elections actually solidified this. Gilles Duceppe may have assessed things the same way and so feels that he can make this ultimatum with the confidence that some other of the opposition will keep the Conservatives afloat . He may be right and it may help dispel the criticism that the Conservatives are serving at the good graces of the Block. Perhaps he is simply bluffing . It may also be that he feels that he has nothing to lose and must do something spectacular to get his party back on track. I have been suggesting Dion do something like this for a while now. I am not sure that this will cause the Conservatives to alter their course much since, it may very well be that they are of the same opinion (about the likelihood of a Fall election and the reasons why).

Lloyd MacIlquham

Duceppe appears to have made the calculation that he needs to provoke an election now in order to minimize the number of seats he will lose should he wait longer. Harper clearly has the advantage and Mr. Dion now finds himself isolated from the NDP and Bloc with him taking the blame should the TS be defeated and an election takes place. Dion of course has flip flopped. He ran around the country saying he had 4 points that Harper had to meet or he would vote against the TS. Those issues were: pull out of the combat mission in 2009, poverty, meeting Kyoto targets and broader economic agenda. Now Dion is saying...on second thought maybe I will read the TS and decide then what to do. What a buffoon! Canadians are watching Dion and the Liberals performance and are saying this isn't a government in waiting but really something that could appear on Saturday Night Live.
The ball is now in the court of the Liberals and both the NDP and the Bloc are trying their best to marginalize Dion and the Liberals. They see the Liberal party is mortally wounded and they want to end their misery sooner than later. In the meantime Dion is caught between a rock and a hard spot. Force an election now which will at a minimum ensure a Conservative minority or wait and with a popular budget which will ensure a Conservative majority.
The Liberals won all those elections because the right was split. Chretien would have lost the 1997 election because of his broken GST promise. There is no organization in Quebec for the Liberals now that they cannot buy votes with our money. It is a beautiful thing to behold.