Reading the entrails of the Quebec By-elections

73 comments Latest by calmecam

Predicting the timing of the next federal election is a precarious undertaking. But there is one thing you can count on – the results of the federal by-elections in Quebec will be the best indicator of the likelihood of a federal election and also the tone of the upcoming federal sitting of the House of Commons this Fall.

Beyond the winners and losers the one thing to watch will be the popular vote of the respective parties. Popular vote levels in each of the ridings will be the best indicator to monitor. A positive show for the NDP in Outrement will likely embolden the NDP. Watch the riding of Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean in the Saguenay. Traditionally a BQ stronghold, especially under Lucien Bouchard, it will be interesting to see how the Tories fare. For the Liberals, it’s all about showing that their support in Quebec has not eroded since the last federal election.

For the Conservatives to do well would be quite an accomplishment since by-elections usually beget bad news for sitting government as voters in many cases use a by-election to send a message to the government without unseating it.

What do you think?

Cheers, Nik

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Even if the NDP wins in Outremont I don't see this as a trend for or against the... more

parnel (Ontario) 16 Sep 15:13

Hello Nik, I don't! Even should Thomas Mulcair, former Minister of the Enviro... more

blossom (Québec) 16 Sep 15:54

hello hollinm, As you know I always pay attention to what Craig Oliver on CTV... more

blossom (Québec) 19 Sep 00:10

Believe what you will blossom. Quebec is moving to the Conservative party becaus... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 16 Sep 23:36

hollinm - I agree with your thoughts - Dion has brought nothing but discord to t... more

e guye (Nova Scotia) 18 Sep 01:05

Nik, Quebec polls vastly under rated the fortunes of the NDP and Conservative p... more

e guye (Nova Scotia) 18 Sep 01:46

Comments

parnel

Even if the NDP wins in Outremont I don't see this as a trend for or against the Liberals. The NDP is able to throw everything at this riding as they have a lot to gain but in a general election Mulcair will be on his own and Layton's overall performance will be on view. Mulcair himself is a wild card as he doesn't play party politics very well and thus he could be a maverick for even Layton to manage.

Harper is not going to do as well as he thought in these elections either so I see another parliamentary stalemate until spring unless Harper is really feeling his oats and tries to bring up something in the throne speech that cannot be approved by any other party.

In my opinion Dion is doing well enough and is getting a good handle on being a leader. He appears more confident now and he is patient because he knows Harper is never going to be popular and this gives him time to find his wedge issue.

The fact these bi-elections are competitive is good for Quebec and the Country.

[updated Sun Sep 16 15:13:05 EDT 2007]

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16 Sep 15:13

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supper

I think an election before the New Year. As whatever happens in Quebec, momentum will be gained to push for an election. All parties seem locked in and ready.

[updated Sun Sep 16 15:13:16 EDT 2007]

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16 Sep 15:13

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blossom

Hello Nik,

I don't! Even should Thomas Mulcair, former Minister of the Environment win this by-election will have no future adverse effects for the Liberal party in the event of a Federal election.

Thomas Mulcair is a much better known, ex-Provincial Liberal, and unfortunately Jocelyn Coulon is just not a well-known candidate, but a professor-journalyst whom I believe is just not that well-known by the grassroots. He has a quiet low-key profile, but much experience and knowledge in international affairs. He will stand strong with those who oppose the Afghanistan mission from continuing after February 2009, and with the Environment and at least trying to achieve the objectives of the Kyoto Accord.

I have no sense that whatever the outcome of this by-election is going to change one iota for the lack of support of the Conservative government in Qc. The transfer of votes to the Harper gov/t is just not felt out here.

Cheers,

[updated Sun Sep 16 15:54:56 EDT 2007]

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16 Sep 15:54

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hollinm

Believe what you will blossom. Quebec is moving to the Conservative party because they are the only party preaching decentralization. Dion and Layton are centralizers who think that the federal government needs to be in control of everything. Each province is different and has different needs. Read Chantal Hebert's book. It is very enlightening. Big government, big social programs no longer work. The premiers have been burned too often with the feds introducing a big social program and providing funding only to withdraw their funding down the road leaving the provinces holding the bag (so to speak). Decentralization will be the key in the next throne speech and that appeals to Quebecers more than Afghanistan and the environment.

Another thing in the throne speech maybe income splitting for everyone or maybe a flat tax with a surtax on the richest in the country. Those are issues that would appeal to everybody in Canada and would blow the Libs and the NDP right out of the water. That would also mean the end of the Bloc. That would be good for Canada.

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16 Sep 23:36

blossom

Hi hollinm,

What you are saying is more and more true, but in this province of Qc don't believe all that you hear. One can only expect the unexpected.

I would like the flat tax. This would be beneficial to all, and eliminate a lot of problems.

gilles duceppe may already be of the past, with the 'bloc', but is certainly in cohorts with the pq, although I do not get the sense that they really want him. Out here it is the Anglo minority. Don't misconstrue with the polls, and the under-current out here, because 'decentralization' is just another form of getting sovereignty. Now they want their own provincial "anthem"...They have already forgotten that the status of 'nation' is only symbolic, or just not reminding its people.

They also say that we no longer want majority gov/ts, but that's what it's all about. S.Harper has always wanted to give the Provinces more powers, but if you want to keep Canada united I don't see how it will happen in this province.

If one lives in this province, and is a Federalist, it is difficult to be inspired at this time.

I

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17 Sep 16:03

hollinm

Hi blossom:

If we can never get a majority government and I agree it is becoming more impossible then we are in real trouble. For those that like a minority government then what they are saying is they like inaction and no real changes. That's a recipe for stagnation and perpetual gridlock.

With passage of the new law governments' only have a shelf life of 4 years. That isn't a long time and my argument is put a government into power with a majority, let's see what they can do and if they don't meet the expectations of the Canadian people then we can kick their sorry asses out and try something different.

Minorities don't work anymore because we have one party sitting in the House of Commons who is only interested in one province. What is in the best interest of one province may not necessarily be in the interest of the whole country. The government needs to be able to make decisions in the best interest of the whole country.

What do you think about the byelections today? Are the Liberals going to hold Outremont and will the Conservatives win at least Roberval?

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17 Sep 16:53

blossom

Hi hollinm,

As long as the Harper gov/t is in power, I do not want a majority gov/t. Already this gov/t has taken action as though it had its majority, and the rest of the time fighting for its majority.

Normally the gov/t is supposed to work with the Opposition. I haven't seen this happening, except for a dysfunctional Parliament. What about those "Bills" that will not be passed in the "House" because S. Harper has managed to keep recess in the House for another month? Doesn't this bother you a little?

Funny, I thought that you were for minority gov/t's last year? Thought you said that majority govt/s did not work any more.

As for Roberval - please read my first post to you. Jack Layton looked a bit lost today when he got mixed-up on this by-election, and had to contend that the Conservatives won because of the softlumber deal, and it took a Conservative to repair the losses, after they created it.

4 years is all they get in the US, and a second term, unless the Country is at war; under attack. There are provisions in their Constitution. Imagine if 'bush' stayed in the White House because he has decided to attack Iran???

If you are worried about a Leader being partisan for one Province, vote for S. Dion who is propogating helping all Provinces.

Thomas Mulcair was a well known personality, and Jocelyn Coulon not. I do not think that this is reflective of the NDP, and in all due fairness, not many knew M. Coulon, and of course, the hype is that he was chosen by S. Dion...M. Coulon's experience of foreign policy might have been essential in dealing with Afghanistan.
Having Justin Trudeau might have been more voter oriented, but would not have brought the experience and knowledge that M. Coulon's talents offered. It only proved that the electorate said 'Anything but S. Harper'.

We can't always be in election mode...it's costly in every way. It depends where the party you vote for is going to take you...Is this really where you want to go?

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19 Sep 00:43

hollinm

Hi blossom:

I am afraid you are reading too much of the media blossom. All governments want a majority and Harper is no different. Are you suggesting Paul Martin was satisifed with a minority government? I don't think so. It is pure media hype in attempt to portray Harper as having hidden agenda and he will inflict some dastardly deeds on the Canadian people. I have met him, talked to him and to our local MP. He has only the best interests of the country at heart. Unlike previous Liberal leaders who are rich and don't have the worries of ordinary people Harper was born to middle class people, is not pretentious, is honest and trustworthy.

Do you honestly believe the opposition parties are not playing partisan games?. Passing a mini Kyoto bill which would cause economic hardship for the country. Stopping or watering down crime legislation which the majority of Canadians clearly want. Dion is appearing to be a coward by supporting legislation in the House but using the Senate to block it or delay it. The intent of the opposition is to stop the government from achieving a record they can take on the campaign trail.

As for delaying the recall of the House you should be happy. Another Throne Speech and there is an opportunity for the opposition parties to put their money where their mouth is. Defeat the government by a vote of non confidence. Trust me blossom. In an election campaign the Liberals will be decimated and Harper will have his majority. I don't ever believe I said I support minority governments. I think now that we have 4 years to test drive a government we should see what they can do. As for the bills that died. They can be re-introduced but bill C31 the Clean Air Act will never see the light of day.

Jack Layton is running around in his typical fashion trying to convince Canadians the NDP is on the move. It was the Mulcair factor and only that that won Outremont. He lives in a fantasy world anyway so I discount anything he says. When he comes on TV I press the mute button.

You seem to be fixated on the U.S. and George Bush. I am only interested in the U.S. as a matter of general knowledge. What they do is irrelevant in my day to day life. You are right it is a good thing President's only have two terms.

You say Dion is for all provinces. How so? He came to Alberta and virtually told them he was going to put them out of business with a carbon tax. He tells Danny Williams he will restore the Atlantic Accord. What about the new deal that gives them more money?. There is no way Dion would give Nfld the ability to exclude off shore revenue and then when they become a have province still collect equalization. That's irresponsible. What else has he said that would convince you he is in favour of all provinces? Was it the spin you hear from the mouths of Liberals everyday? They have prefected it to an art form. I think you have fallen for the propaganda of the Liberal party.

Words mean nothing in politics blossom. It is action. Harper campaigned on 5 priorities and he has delivered on 4 of them at least. You may not agree with the 5 priorities but at least he kept them. That is unusual for a government. You can argue about income trusts and how he broke his campaign pledge and I would agree that he broke his promise. However, what does a prime minister do when circumstances change and it could have a negative effect on the whole country? I don't think I want to put that high a standard on any leader. He certainly didn't make the changes because he wanted to piss people off.

So until I see something better (in my opinion) I will stick with the Conservatives.

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19 Sep 08:02

hollinm

Hi blossom:

I am afraid you are reading too much of the media blossom. All governments want a majority and Harper is no different. Are you suggesting Paul Martin was satisifed with a minority government? I don't think so. It is pure media hype in attempt to portray Harper as having hidden agenda and he will inflict some dastardly deeds on the Canadian people. I have met him, talked to him and to our local MP. He has only the best interests of the country at heart. Unlike previous Liberal leaders who are rich and don't have the worries of ordinary people Harper was born to middle class people, is not pretentious, is honest and trustworthy.

Do you honestly believe the opposition parties are not playing partisan games?. Passing a mini Kyoto bill which would cause economic hardship for the country. Stopping or watering down crime legislation which the majority of Canadians clearly want. Dion is appearing to be a coward by supporting legislation in the House but using the Senate to block it or delay it. The intent of the opposition is to stop the government from achieving a record they can take on the campaign trail.

As for delaying the recall of the House you should be happy. Another Throne Speech and there is an opportunity for the opposition parties to put their money where their mouth is. Defeat the government by a vote of non confidence. Trust me blossom. In an election campaign the Liberals will be decimated and Harper will have his majority. I don't ever believe I said I support minority governments. I think now that we have 4 years to test drive a government we should see what they can do. As for the bills that died. They can be re-introduced but bill C31 the Clean Air Act will never see the light of day.

Jack Layton is running around in his typical fashion trying to convince Canadians the NDP is on the move. It was the Mulcair factor and only that that won Outremont. He lives in a fantasy world anyway so I discount anything he says. When he comes on TV I press the mute button.

You seem to be fixated on the U.S. and George Bush. I am only interested in the U.S. as a matter of general knowledge. What they do is irrelevant in my day to day life. You are right it is a good thing President's only have two terms.

You say Dion is for all provinces. How so? He came to Alberta and virtually told them he was going to put them out of business with a carbon tax. He tells Danny Williams he will restore the Atlantic Accord. What about the new deal that gives them more money?. There is no way Dion would give Nfld the ability to exclude off shore revenue and then when they become a have province still collect equalization. That's irresponsible. What else has he said that would convince you he is in favour of all provinces? Was it the spin you hear from the mouths of Liberals everyday? They have prefected it to an art form. I think you have fallen for the propaganda of the Liberal party.

Words mean nothing in politics blossom. It is action. Harper campaigned on 5 priorities and he has delivered on 4 of them at least. You may not agree with the 5 priorities but at least he kept them. That is unusual for a government. You can argue about income trusts and how he broke his campaign pledge and I would agree that he broke his promise. However, what does a prime minister do when circumstances change and it could have a negative effect on the whole country? I don't think I want to put that high a standard on any leader. He certainly didn't make the changes because he wanted to piss people off.

So until I see something better (in my opinion) I will stick with the Conservatives.

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19 Sep 08:02

hollinm

Sorry for the repeated messages.

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19 Sep 08:09

hollinm

Hi blossom:

I am afraid you are reading too much of the media blossom. All governments want a majority and Harper is no different. Are you suggesting Paul Martin was satisifed with a minority government? I don't think so. It is pure media hype in attempt to portray Harper as having hidden agenda and he will inflict some dastardly deeds on the Canadian people. I have met him, talked to him and to our local MP. He has only the best interests of the country at heart. Unlike previous Liberal leaders who are rich and don't have the worries of ordinary people Harper was born to middle class people, is not pretentious, is honest and trustworthy.

Do you honestly believe the opposition parties are not playing partisan games?. Passing a mini Kyoto bill which would cause economic hardship for the country. Stopping or watering down crime legislation which the majority of Canadians clearly want. Dion is appearing to be a coward by supporting legislation in the House but using the Senate to block it or delay it. The intent of the opposition is to stop the government from achieving a record they can take on the campaign trail.

As for delaying the recall of the House you should be happy. Another Throne Speech and there is an opportunity for the opposition parties to put their money where their mouth is. Defeat the government by a vote of non confidence. Trust me blossom. In an election campaign the Liberals will be decimated and Harper will have his majority. I don't ever believe I said I support minority governments. I think now that we have 4 years to test drive a government we should see what they can do. As for the bills that died. They can be re-introduced but bill C31 the Clean Air Act will never see the light of day.

Jack Layton is running around in his typical fashion trying to convince Canadians the NDP is on the move. It was the Mulcair factor and only that that won Outremont. He lives in a fantasy world anyway so I discount anything he says. When he comes on TV I press the mute button.

You seem to be fixated on the U.S. and George Bush. I am only interested in the U.S. as a matter of general knowledge. What they do is irrelevant in my day to day life. You are right it is a good thing President's only have two terms.

You say Dion is for all provinces. How so? He came to Alberta and virtually told them he was going to put them out of business with a carbon tax. He tells Danny Williams he will restore the Atlantic Accord. What about the new deal that gives them more money?. There is no way Dion would give Nfld the ability to exclude off shore revenue and then when they become a have province still collect equalization. That's irresponsible. What else has he said that would convince you he is in favour of all provinces? Was it the spin you hear from the mouths of Liberals everyday? They have prefected it to an art form. I think you have fallen for the propaganda of the Liberal party.

Words mean nothing in politics blossom. It is action. Harper campaigned on 5 priorities and he has delivered on 4 of them at least. You may not agree with the 5 priorities but at least he kept them. That is unusual for a government. You can argue about income trusts and how he broke his campaign pledge and I would agree that he broke his promise. However, what does a prime minister do when circumstances change and it could have a negative effect on the whole country? I don't think I want to put that high a standard on any leader. He certainly didn't make the changes because he wanted to piss people off.

So until I see something better (in my opinion) I will stick with the Conservatives.

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19 Sep 08:04

hollinm

Hi blossom:

I am afraid you are reading too much of the media blossom. All governments want a majority and Harper is no different. Are you suggesting Paul Martin was satisifed with a minority government? I don't think so. It is pure media hype in attempt to portray Harper as having hidden agenda and he will inflict some dastardly deeds on the Canadian people. I have met him, talked to him and to our local MP. He has only the best interests of the country at heart. Unlike previous Liberal leaders who are rich and don't have the worries of ordinary people Harper was born to middle class people, is not pretentious, is honest and trustworthy.

Do you honestly believe the opposition parties are not playing partisan games?. Passing a mini Kyoto bill which would cause economic hardship for the country. Stopping or watering down crime legislation which the majority of Canadians clearly want. Dion is appearing to be a coward by supporting legislation in the House but using the Senate to block it or delay it. The intent of the opposition is to stop the government from achieving a record they can take on the campaign trail.

As for delaying the recall of the House you should be happy. Another Throne Speech and there is an opportunity for the opposition parties to put their money where their mouth is. Defeat the government by a vote of non confidence. Trust me blossom. In an election campaign the Liberals will be decimated and Harper will have his majority. I don't ever believe I said I support minority governments. I think now that we have 4 years to test drive a government we should see what they can do. As for the bills that died. They can be re-introduced but bill C31 the Clean Air Act will never see the light of day.

Jack Layton is running around in his typical fashion trying to convince Canadians the NDP is on the move. It was the Mulcair factor and only that that won Outremont. He lives in a fantasy world anyway so I discount anything he says. When he comes on TV I press the mute button.

You seem to be fixated on the U.S. and George Bush. I am only interested in the U.S. as a matter of general knowledge. What they do is irrelevant in my day to day life. You are right it is a good thing President's only have two terms.

You say Dion is for all provinces. How so? He came to Alberta and virtually told them he was going to put them out of business with a carbon tax. He tells Danny Williams he will restore the Atlantic Accord. What about the new deal that gives them more money?. There is no way Dion would give Nfld the ability to exclude off shore revenue and then when they become a have province still collect equalization. That's irresponsible. What else has he said that would convince you he is in favour of all provinces? Was it the spin you hear from the mouths of Liberals everyday? They have prefected it to an art form. I think you have fallen for the propaganda of the Liberal party.

Words mean nothing in politics blossom. It is action. Harper campaigned on 5 priorities and he has delivered on 4 of them at least. You may not agree with the 5 priorities but at least he kept them. That is unusual for a government. You can argue about income trusts and how he broke his campaign pledge and I would agree that he broke his promise. However, what does a prime minister do when circumstances change and it could have a negative effect on the whole country? I don't think I want to put that high a standard on any leader. He certainly didn't make the changes because he wanted to piss people off.

So until I see something better (in my opinion) I will stick with the Conservatives.

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19 Sep 08:04

hollinm

There will be no election this fall because it is not in the best interest of the opposition parties all for different reasons. However, the opposition better not get too cute because if they put the Afghanistan mission or the environment as drop dead issues in order to support the Throne Speech they could get an election if Harper declares any or either of these issues a confidence vote.
Mr. Dion is looking pretty silly these days saying he wants 4 things included in the TS including the old Liberal canard ending poverty. I seem to remember the Liberals touted that in one of their Throne Speeches way back when. So what's the problem? There is still poverty? Another broken Liberal promise.
The loss of Outremont will not spell the end of the Dion leadership yet. It takes too long to organize a convention (it took a year last time) and so there is not enough time before the next election even if it is in Oct. 09. However, the long knives will come out because Dion will have shown he cannot deliver Francophone Quebec. They still hate him for the Clarity Act and his many letters written to the sovereignists telling them how terrible they were.

Anybody who watched Dion's interview with Peter Mansbridge this week and the reason given for not going to Afghanistan will see him as a weakling and maybe even a coward. Somebody not prepared to ensure he has all the relevant facts first hand about the situation on the ground before making a final decision on the future of Canada in that war torn country.

[updated Sun Sep 16 17:28:45 EDT 2007]

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16 Sep 17:28

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wlloydm

I don’t think the results of the by-elections, per se, will cause any of major parties to seek an election in the near future.

Since, to force an election the three opposing parties must all vote (with a descent and/or absentee here or there) against the government (presumably on the Throne Speech).

This will maintain after the by-elections in Quebec on Monday, no matter what the result (even if the Lib’s, say, won all three seats, which they, obviously, won’t). In fact, a quick calculation shows that this situation maintains even assuming the 3 Independents vote against the government and all 7 vacant seats go to one of the opposing parties (e.g. the Lib’s, or the Block – that is very unlikely off course and the more seats the Con’s pick up the harder it will be for them to be defeated).

As things stand right now there are four parties and they are very much polarized, each with respect to all the others. Thus, any gain, even perceived, in the by-elections in Quebec or elsewhere for one party will result in a loss, or perceived loss, for at least one of the other parties. So, one of the three will not be spurred to force an election simply based on the results of the by-elections.

This is a prime illustration of what I mean when I refer to the current situation as a ‘local stability’ (see in my reply to a comment for the blog entry “Green Party of Canada - Likely the Political Wildcard in the Next Election”).

The above is, of courser, taking into account only the impact of the results of the by-elections.

As things stand I thing Dion should be seriously trying to force an election whether the Lib’s do well in the by-elections in Quebec or not (to me he should have been trying since the Spring). Basically, it seems Dion’s only real chance at this time is to try to win a minority government. Even for this there will have to be some event(s) to destabilize the current situation (as above, I don’t think this the by-elections are sufficient). If the Lib’s do poorly, especially in Outremont, then Dion might as well try to force an election since he may not get another chance.

Of course Dion downplays the polls, especially Outremont, suggesting that they may not be accurate do to there being such a large undecided and many immigrants do not like to answer polls. This is an issue with any poll, even one taken very close to the actual day of the election. As long as there is a significant % of undecided and/or those not wishing to give an answer, in the poll; and/or, a significant number of no-votes in the election, then the poll should be inaccurate (it seems to me anyway). It may be that it predicts the order, but I don’t see how it can be relied on to predict the actual vote. So, Dion may have a point although the spread is a bit wide.

It will be interesting to see how close this poll is to the actual results on Monday. However, I don’t see the results changing the current political power struggle situation in any significant way.

Lloyd MacIlquham

[updated Sun Sep 16 17:37:40 EDT 2007]

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16 Sep 17:37

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Dennis (Second Thoughts)

I'm not exactly sure what the point of this thread is. The by-elections will have an impact on general election calculus. Parties that do well will be emboldened. This is stuff that we've read in the papers for weeks. It's not what I'd expect from a pollster whose supposed to give us numbers you can't find anywhere else, right?

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16 Sep 19:22

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JamesH

Of course it's been frequently noted that in Quebec in particular the Afghanistan issue is a hot button, but to what extent do voters in Quebec equate the Harperites with the Mario Parti? (otherwise known as ADQ) Certainly they are birds of a feather, does a rising tide for Mario lift Harper's boat as well? Hopefully someone more knowledgeable on Que issues could comment on this.

It would be interesting if the NDP won in Outremont, but if they do it won't be on their own merits. Of far more long term value to the NDP are the fortunes of Pierre Ducasse, a young man now living in Hull who ran for the NDP leadership last time and was very impressive in (dare I say it) a Trudeauesque way. If he were to win a seat in the next federal election I think he could instigate a very dramatic shift in fortune for the NDP in Quebec.

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16 Sep 20:20

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e guye

By tomorrow night we'll have the answers - so this topic is (almost) already outdated.

A better topic, perhaps introduced on Tuesday, might have been - 'what do you see as the political fallout of the results of the 3 Quebec byelections?'

Then we would have something to sink our teeth into - concrete results.

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16 Sep 20:58

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e guye

Nik, Quebec polls vastly under rated the fortunes of the NDP and Conservative parties in the Quebec byelections. One has to ask why? Were these polls, so far from the actual election results, meant to direct public opinion?

As one watched the Liberals after the main results were announced one saw:

Stephan Dion - looking as if he really wanted to go to bed and cry, but bravely carrying on as if these results were mere short term aberrations that could quite easily be overcome;

Michael Ignatieff - standing as far apart from his 'leader' as he could comfortably get - these results were I think worse than he had imagined such that they may even assault his leadership aspirations (who wants to lead a party going nowhere?);

Gerard Kennedy - looking crushed;

Martha Finlayson - looking not only crushed, also totally stunned.

Bring on the Ontario byelections.

Bob Rae may have a fight on his hands, Kennedy and Finlayson might as well retire into the limelight now - they don't have a snowball's chance in Hades.

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18 Sep 01:46

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Bernie

Needless to say, the Liberals and the Bloc were very disappointed about yesterday's results. The Conservatives and NDP are elated. The results were not entirely surprising, if you have been reading Chantal Hebert's columns. This is especially so in Outremont where Mulcair, who is a veteran Liberal, now calling himself NDP, and who is a good politician and very popular. Had he run as a Liberal, or for any other party, he would have won. In Roberval I wasn't surprised either. but I must admit that I did not think the Conservatives would do as well in St. Hyacinthe, being closer to an urban center, Montreal., where conservatives have more difficulty getting support.
However Dion and Duceppe's disapppintment and Harper and Layton's ecstacy may be tempered by the following observations.
By-elections have little enfluence on the nation scene; They usually have very low turnouts, serious national voters are not all that interested; voters like to send messages in by-elections ; they tend to vote for the person and the local issues and they feel they don't have to be responsible as in national elections and as always things can change very quickly in politics.
Even with that the losing parties have some soul-searching to do and corrections to make before the next elections

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18 Sep 10:46

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bcvoter

The bottom line is Canadians do not want Dion as Prime Minister, only corrupted Liberal members do!

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21 Sep 20:13

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calmecam

There is not much to read in the tea leaves of the by-elections:

Liberals: Everyone is quick to critcize Dion but they forget that since he's taken the helm of the party, nationally, the Liberals are running neck-and-neck with the Conservatives. That, already, is a feat! It is a bit much to expect Dion to do well in Quebec when the Liberal brand has been beaten down to a pulp there before he won the leadership race.

Conservatives: The Bloc has been propping up the Conservatives so the Québecois have been asking "why vote for the Bloc and get none of the federal largesse, if the Bloc is only going to support the Conservative position?". This played in Roberval, where the forestry sector has been decimated by the Conservative sell-out to the US of our economic trade sovereignty for the price of $4 billion. In addition they found a star candidate in the former mayor.

NDP: This is indeed interesting. The Bloc is bleeding support and the Québecois, finally, are starting to realize that there is another federalist leftist option. Some of the disaffected Bloc vote that was traditionally Liberal could very well go the way of the NDP. After all, the party did triple its vote in that province in the last federal election. As well, Mulcair is a name around which the NDP could start to build a bit of an organization.

Bloc: The biggest change was for this party. The Bloc was going to be content to keep propping up the Conservatives until such time as the next provincial budget could be presented in Quebec. It was their hope that new PQ-leader Pauline Marois and ADQ-leader Dumont would defeat the Charest budget to provoke another provincial vote. This is no longer an option and hence Duceppe came out with his non-negociable list.

The significant change is that Quebec is no longer, federally, a two-party area.

There will always be a hardcore 33% Bloc support. The rest, for the first time, will be divided between the other three parties.

Don't be surprised to see some NDPers and Liberals coming up the middle in some rural regions in Quebec and some Conservatives slip up the middle on the island of Montreal.

The biggest change now is that Quebec can't be won. At least four parties will split the available seats.

[updated Wed Oct 03 17:56:06 EDT 2007]

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03 Oct 17:56

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