Home › Reading the entrails of the Quebec By-elections
Reading the entrails of the Quebec By-elections
Predicting the timing of the next federal election is a precarious undertaking. But there is one thing you can count on – the results of the federal by-elections in Quebec will be the best indicator of the likelihood of a federal election and also the tone of the upcoming federal sitting of the House of Commons this Fall.
Beyond the winners and losers the one thing to watch will be the popular vote of the respective parties. Popular vote levels in each of the ridings will be the best indicator to monitor. A positive show for the NDP in Outrement will likely embolden the NDP. Watch the riding of Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean in the Saguenay. Traditionally a BQ stronghold, especially under Lucien Bouchard, it will be interesting to see how the Tories fare. For the Liberals, it’s all about showing that their support in Quebec has not eroded since the last federal election.
For the Conservatives to do well would be quite an accomplishment since by-elections usually beget bad news for sitting government as voters in many cases use a by-election to send a message to the government without unseating it.
What do you think?
Cheers,
Nik
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Even if the NDP wins in Outremont I don't see this as a trend for or against the... more
parnel (Ontario) 16 Sep 15:13
Hello Nik, I don't! Even should Thomas Mulcair, former Minister of the Enviro... more
blossom (Québec) 16 Sep 15:54
hello hollinm, As you know I always pay attention to what Craig Oliver on CTV... more
blossom (Québec) 19 Sep 00:10
Believe what you will blossom. Quebec is moving to the Conservative party becaus... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 16 Sep 23:36
hollinm - I agree with your thoughts - Dion has brought nothing but discord to t... more
e guye (Nova Scotia) 18 Sep 01:05
Nik, Quebec polls vastly under rated the fortunes of the NDP and Conservative p... more
e guye (Nova Scotia) 18 Sep 01:46
Comments
parnel
Even if the NDP wins in Outremont I don't see this as a trend for or against the Liberals. The NDP is able to throw everything at this riding as they have a lot to gain but in a general election Mulcair will be on his own and Layton's overall performance will be on view. Mulcair himself is a wild card as he doesn't play party politics very well and thus he could be a maverick for even Layton to manage.
Harper is not going to do as well as he thought in these elections either so I see another parliamentary stalemate until spring unless Harper is really feeling his oats and tries to bring up something in the throne speech that cannot be approved by any other party.
In my opinion Dion is doing well enough and is getting a good handle on being a leader. He appears more confident now and he is patient because he knows Harper is never going to be popular and this gives him time to find his wedge issue.
The fact these bi-elections are competitive is good for Quebec and the Country.
[updated Sun Sep 16 15:13:05 EDT 2007]
16 Sep 15:13
31 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
blossom
Hi Parnel,
I agree with what you say...S.Harper has a way of jumping the gun on issues, taking sides to quickly and then having to tone down, and blame the Liberals for all of his ailings.
He is being perceived more and more on a parallel line with the 'bush' administration, and now the PM of Australia, which is a direct conflict with our own interests.
I believe that he is going to womewhat tone down his Speech to the Throne, which would suit all parties including the electorate. We have already seen how he is more subtle on the Afghanistan mission ending in 2009. The longer he waits to call an election the less are his chances of even a minority gov/t.
What the real issue is in Outremont is that the medias have hyped the NDP (Mr. Mulcair), and that should M. Coulon lose this riding, is the choice that Stephane Dion has made...it is a totally unfair assessment of the situation. M. Dion has made a very wise choice in choosing this candidate because of his expertise on the political world politics, and his experience will be beneficial to all of us across Canada.
Anyone who wishes to question the "Leader" capabalities of Stephane Dion should get out there and meet with him. The medias still hesitate to give him much of a chance, but,
M. Dion is a tower of strength, polite, honest, and one gets a sense of great integrity. One gets the sense that he would rather be out there doing the job of a PM, rather than getting popularity votes. You are absolutely right parnel, that M. Dion is a very patient man, doesn't like stupitidy and pettyness, but takes it with a stride. Intellectually, M. Dion is always looking with a greater vision at the issues.
16 Sep 16:23
hollinm
Are you sure you're not related to Dion in some way. You are seeing things that nobody else is seeing. Start blaming the press now eh. That means the Libs are in real trouble. In fact on Question Period today, Craig Oliver said the media was taking it easy on Dion to give him time to improve. So much for our fair and balanced media in Canada. The media gave no inch to Harper in Opposition or as prime minister.
You say "Intellectually, M. Dion is always looking with a greater vision at the issues." Name one new policy/ issue he has brought to the table. All he says is he will reverse Conservative policies. That's not a leader but somebody who will pander to the lowest common denominator to get elected. Blossom you need to quit bloviating and face reality. The Libs are a spent force in Quebec, other than for the island of Montreal.
16 Sep 23:43
e guye
hollinm - I agree with your thoughts - Dion has brought nothing but discord to the House of Commons - his objectives seeming to be complete and utter negative reaction to Conservative policy rather than putting forth Liberal policy. His 'new' policies include:
1) alarming disarray, lack of 'clarity' (remember the famous Clarity Act he is credited with but Stephen Harper actually wrote) re the mission in Afghanistan - as far as I can figure out he has now come round full circle to Mr Harper's views stated about 2 months ago;
2) the environment - he is still bleating about Kyoto although he can't seem to read the very obvious handwriting on the wall - thinking Canadians are far ahead of him in this regard and will not support his ridiculous committment to the Kyoto Accord as it stands - even giving full credit to his dog named Kyoto;
3) I can't honestly think of any other major principles Dion has been involved with - unless you want to count his stance on Afghanisti prisoners which he hammered away at day after day.
And now the byelections are over - Mr Dion the biggest loser, even losing that safe seat in Outremont - the Bloc the second biggest loser, with one quite narrow victory in St Hyacinth - and the Conservatives the biggest winners with an election in Roberval, a close race in St Hyacinth.
The political face of Canada is changing - it is getting near time for Mr Harper to go for that majority!
18 Sep 01:05
hollinm
I couldn't have said it better myself e guye. If you and I can see it for what it is I hope more Canadians will buy into the fact that Harper is the real leader here and wants what's in the best interest of country. The Liberals want power back for the sake of having power.
However, no matter what the public comments are they will be pure spin. Dion is a wounded leader today. Dion and the Liberals have shown everyone they are not ready for a general election. If they can't hold a riding which they have had for 100 years (other than a short period) they will never be able to manage a national election.
The look on Dion's face when making his gratuitous speech last night was something to behold. He continued on the mantra that the voters of Outremont were mad at the government and that's why they voted NDP. That defies logic. There is only one person to blame and that is the prissy, dual citizen of France who hasn't got a fresh thought in his head. Whoever is guiding him must be trying to get Dion out of power. His speech was weak and he looked like a deer caught in the headlights.
On the other hand we cannot forget the significance of the Conservative victory in Roberval. It wasn't just a defeat it was a rout. This bodes well for Mr. Harper and the government going forward and puts the opposition parties on the defensive. It takes 3 parties to defeat the government and only one to support it. Before the byelection Harper needed the Bloc or Liberal support. The NDP are now in that position as well with 30 seats.
I suspect Harper will govern as if he has a majoirity and will taunt the opposition parties. If Dion gets too huffy Harper can declare the vote on Afghanistan or the environment as a confidence vote which forces the opposition to put their money where their mouths are.
18 Sep 05:17
e guye
hollinm, Agree. And in St Hyacinth they came very close. I even listened to one person from Quebec (on CPAC) who said he had told the Conservatives how close that riding would be but they didn't listen to him - he had recommended that they spend more time there.
This is one of my biggest gripes with polling - I forget who did the polling on the Friday before the byelections - do you remember? - but they were so far off the track that one can only think it was deliberate. How else could they be that far off? Even Outremont was a route for the NDP, not just 5 or 6 points ahead.
I am feeling better about our chances now in the next general election - always thought they were good, but now am sure of it.
Don't know if I'd like Harper to go for it early or stick to his mandate - he has room to manouver now and I hardly think even smiling Jack will try to upset his applecart too soon. Being the pragmatist he is, sure that he will know the answer to that one.
Cheers!
19 Sep 20:37
blossom
hello hollinm,
As you know I always pay attention to what Craig Oliver on CTV has to say. He wasen't exactly blaming S. Dion, but telling the party that they had better gather behind their Leader, and as David Hegel (no longer strategist) said that the Grits had better stop trying to campaign for another Leader, rather than losing another six or one year campaigning. M. Oliver also said that S. Dion is still a new leader, who has had little help from his party to bolster him. If you add all that to the monies wasted by the Harperites to smear him he did not even get the honeymoon that was alloted to S. Harper, and hate to rub it in, but hasen't had a cosmetic change to appeal to the cameras.
I heard Jack Layton say that the Conservative win in Roberval was due to the softwood lumer vote that passed in the House, and when suddenly reminded Mr. Layton continued to say that they had voted Conservative out there because since the Conservatives put them in that dilemma, that it took a Conservative to get them out of it. I guess Mr. Layton is not used to so much luck. His candidate is the one who won the by-election; not the party.
For instance, on Afghanistan...S. Dion has the right attitude. You cannot pull out overnight, but it has to stay a 'peacekeeping' mission to help the Afghans out there, otherwise get out. Rick Hillier is promoting Canada as a military Country, and is this what you really want Canada to represent to the rest of the world. Do you realize all of the Corporate mercenaries who are out there, and in Iraq? The military needs money.
If one doesn't believe in global-warming; how about climate change? It was a Harvard professor who helped the 'bush' administration tone it down because it went against their own interests.
hollinm, don't shoot the messenger; pay attention to all sides and see where the interests lie.
Out here, the pq is flirting with segolene royale, who lost to Sarkosy, and the reason that she came out here is for a pretext for her party that she is internationally occupied. Actually she lacks foreign policy awareness, and for the next five years is going to be travelling for experience. Who do you think is paying attention to that? Instead of getting the red carpet only the separatists are making something of nothing.
All I can say to you is that Iraq is a horrible mess, and we shall see Afghanistan becoming the same. Fears are being fed to voters, but what is really going on out there? An RDI Qc commentator went out there, and it was reported that he was received with the royal carpet. It's all about what they want you to believe.
The one thing that M. Dion doesn't do is "diversion" from the real issues. It's not glamorous, but if one listens, it's more tangible.
19 Sep 00:10
hollinm
Hi blossom:
Unfortunately politics is a rough game and when the leader speaks he has to accept responsibility for what he says. The party can't help him and I saw nothing that would indicate that they did not support Dion until this past weekend. You can blame the opposition but if the ads put out by the Conservatives were in fact baseless Dion would not have been tagged a weak leader by the public. When you compare his appearance and that of Mr. Harper there really is no comparison blossom. One looks prime ministerial, the other looks like a nerd and talks like one. Dion has that prissy, professorial look and when he speaks he looks like a teacher lecturing his class with that pompous, arrogant condescending way. Looks matter in this age of TV and people compare the two when they appear side by side. May not be fair but that's the reality.
Mr. Dion came to power last December. He first said on Afghanistan we have to pull out. Then when that didn't work, he said we had to pull out with honour and then he said we need to stop the combat mission in 09. Then he began saying we can stay doing other things. Harper has said from day one that the extension of the mission would require a vote in the House. He doesn't need to do that because decisions about war are left to the PM. That's why he had the vote extending the mission to 09. However, if Mr. Dion is a true leader, rather than opposing, he would work with Mr. Harper in the best interest of the country, rather than just by opposing for the sake of opposing. That's not responsible leadership.
Dion hasn't put one concrete new policy in place for people to judge him. He runs around the country saying he will reverse income trusts, equalization, implement Kyoto. Those are not policies those are opposition tactics. Nobody in Canada, unless they are extremely naive believes he will reverse those policies. It reminds everybody of the GST promise in 1993.
Kyoto has been proven to be impossible to implement in 4 years. It will kill the economy and why would we do that when no significant change will take place with global warming because the major polluters i.e. U.S.A, China and India are not part of the Kyoto Protocol. If it was so easy Chretien and the gang would have done it years ago. Think about it blossom. By the way it was Bill Clinton that rejected particpating in Kyoto, not George Bush. Bush continued with the same policy.
Any discussion about Iraq is irrelevant. We are not there and it was maybe one of the best decisions Chretien made. However, I would remind you it was Chretien and Martin that sent us to Afghanistan. Now we are there and it is very difficult to get out of an international obligation without losing face in the world.
You are right it is necessary to look at all sides. I voted for Trudeau. He said no wage and price controls, he implemented them. He introduced the National Energy Program which virtually destroyed Alberta and caused a recession in Canada. He and Chretien as finance minister started the deficit spending and created Canada's debt load.
I voted for Mulroney because I thought he would do something about the deficit. It got bigger. Then the scandals but then there was Free Trade. I wasn't happy about the deficit but I supported him because I thought Free Trade was good for Canada. Then came the GST and Mulroney lost me. Chretien promised in 1993 (remember the infamous Red Book) that he would get rid of the GST and abandon Free Trade. I voted for him. Guess what we still have Free Trade (which is good) and the GST. Chretien would have lost the 1997 election but because the Conservative movement was split he got a majority government. I moved to the Reform Party because there was no other choice in my mind. The Liberals proved through broken promises that they could not be believed. Then we had adscam and Gomery. I rest my case.
So while I admit I am Conservative in my thinking I do look at the leaders and the policies of each party and make my decisions. Based on the current makeup of the Liberal party and the current leader I will stick with Mr. Harper. However, that could change if Dion gets his act together. No on second thought that won't change. Liberals, based on their track record, cannot be believed. That's why they lost Outremont. A leader needs to not only be strong but look strong and decisive. Mr. Dion, I am afraid does not fit that bill no matter how honest etc. he is.
19 Sep 07:23
blossom
Hello hollinm,
I have just had time to digest your first paragraph...My answer to that is why don't you vote for Conrad Black? O.J. Simpson? Parish something? and all the other 'attractive' or is "unattractive" stars making waves in the medias.
I can believe that both of us are mature enough to stop the silly personal chit chat about our leaders, and get on with the serious business of who is fit to govern intellectually. Since it was Mr. Harper himself who started this business of demeaning other human-beings, I can't blame you for trying to paraphrase, but let us get on to another level of discussion.
I shall read the rest of your post, and perhaps get back to you later hollinm.
19 Sep 22:10
hollinm
Sorry for not replying sooner but I have been out of town.
My previous post was pretty long and I thought contained some pretty good meat for you to chew on. However, you chose only to reply to the appearance comparison.
Whether you like it or not we are voting for a party who's leader will be prime minister of Canada and because we are in a television age appearances do matter and particularly to people who do not follow politics on a daily basis. You can hurl insults at me all you like but you cannot deny the fact that anybody seeing the image of Harper and Dion side to side will choose Harper everytime. Then when you hear each of them speak there is no comparison.
25 Sep 02:27
blossom
Hello hollinm, and happy that you are back!
I do not remember hurling insults at you since this is not my style...Perhaps I stated that we could have a more mature exchange, however, this is not a denigrating statement as far as I know.
Well, I just did not want to go back to the past, since we have enough on the plate today.
If you heard S. Harper in N.Y. today, he definately stated that if there was a Federal election at this time, that it would once again be a 'minority' gov/t.
I agree. The cost of such an election would be rediculous, and the 'bloc' will not intimidate Mr. Harper. By the way, I liked the way he said that his strategists would not approve his admitting this, but he is right about not having another election until his term is up, and all parties, I feel, would have a lot to gain to work together for what they were elected to do. Serve Canadians with the best possible policies for all.
PS: When I feel like insulting someone, I refrain from answering the post! Hope that this secures you.
Have a happy!
25 Sep 17:08
hollinm
If there is an election it will be the fault of the opposition parties. You can say that Harper did not have to prorogue and come back with a throne speech but you will recall that the media were saying that he had run out of ideas. So this was the way to reinvigoriate the agenda etc.
I was very impressed with Mr. Harper and his speech today in NY. He had substance and was very relaxed. The media in Canada could take a lesson and realize that if they are prepared to ask serious questions they will get serious answers. However, the way the media work in Canada is always to act in a pack mentality focusing on frivilous issues. If they continue to do that Harper will continue to ignore them. Today we heard more substance from Mr. Harper than we have heard in any of his interviews with Canadian media. Perhaps the reporters in Canada can learn something. Canadians who listened to the Q&A today learned a lot about what Mr. Harper thinks and why he acts the way he does.
25 Sep 19:16
blossom
Yes, hollinm you are absolutely right, Mr. Harper did not have to come back with a Throne Speech, however, it could be his way to force an election from the other parties, and cost us all another minority gov/t...Do you really think that this is fair to the tax payers?
Since he is already using his agenda as in a majority gov/t, why does he so need to get us into an election...especially when he is conscious that Canadians do not want to be in election mode. Sounds like another year of diversions, and hyping the press and medias as to an election or not? This is really where the action is taking place.
At the UN though, he wasen't exactly cheered by the community and other Countries, was he?
In the meantime we all have to put up with it.
I agree that he did put on a good show today in N.Y. One could say also that he refused to answer those questions that he wished to avoid, such as the "water issue".
His take on the Environment wasen't very well received by other Countries was it? The reports from Afghanistan aren't very good either...
I certainly would not want to disillusion you though, but let's face it, we are in different camps!
Cheers,
26 Sep 06:36
hollinm
I tried to explain the reason why he felt it was necessary to have a TS. Chretien did it many times but I guess its ok for Liberals but not ok for a Conservative government to use the same methods at its disposal to set a new focus. Harper is not talking about an election but it is the media and of course the silly opposition parties who look like they are becoming unhinged.
If you saw Dion's new conference today he looks like a desperate man with so much silly over the top rhetoric he no longer makes sense. The media are now beginning to laugh at the leaders of the opposition. If you saw Craig Oliver commenting on Dion's new conference you would have seen him say "good for him" in a rather derisive tone.
They do not have to take the "bait" if they don't want an election but it is too delicious for them to pass up. So they will stand in front of the camera braying like a bunch of asses and in the end one of them will blink and support the government. Guess which party that will be blossom? I think you would agree with me that Dion would be crazy to go into an election now but he is a weak leader and feels that Canadians will buy his bullshit once on the campaign trail. Because blossom whenever he talks it is always b.s.
His only policy platform is to not be for whatever Harper is for. That will not win an election but convince voters the Liberal party is out of ideas.
You keep talking about the environment. Blossom Kyoto is finished. Harper is showing leadership in NY. He wants all the big polluters involved so that real positive changes can be made on global warming. We can bankrupt our economy while all the major industrial countries of the world go with buoyant economies while ours is in the tank. The auto industry in Canada is already in big trouble. Can you imagine imposing a large carbon tax on them at this point?
So environmentalists can say what they want but buying international trade credits is not an environmental plan.
As you say we are in opposite camps but I do enjoy the dialogue with you. By the way did you see the new poll today:
Bloc 31
PC 27
Libs 19
With these numbers Mr. Dion better keep his arrogant, hypocritical mouth closed.
26 Sep 17:14
blossom
Hello Friend,
Sounds as though you are going to keep me busy...
All the same: I still hold my belief that there will be no Federal election...The parties are going to come together, and Mr. Harper is not yet convinced that he wants to go for an election...only entertain the thought and feed it to all. Mr. Harper has already told you that he likes his job, he is playing by his rules, and like a chess player applies his own strategies without consulting anyone, and giving even less reign to his own ministers! That must tell you something.
I see only Jack Layton going for the jugular, but his view on Afghanistan is unrealistic. The biggest flip-flop will come from S. Harper himself with the TS. Watch my words...he is not willing to jeapordize his own position, and his only term at the helm!
Kyoto is proof of what I mean; he is looking for a solution that can, at best, look presentable to Canadian voters...He still doesn't believe in climate-change.
Did you read the article in Time Mag, this week, "Who Owns the Arctic?
I just bet that you like this years' surplus, which is a few billion under P. Martin's, (for the record), and although it is OK to lower the debt, it took a lot of cuts in much needed social programs. For this, we shall all benefit from a $20 - $40. dollar tax saving benefit.
The 1 cent GST cut will be in 2012...I am waiting with bathed breath.
How about if those refunds had been placed for infrastrucre, health-care, re-investment in the economy by creating skill and job enhancement courses? Instead we are investing in the 'military'!!! What a legacy for the people of this Country. How about investing for research? Education. Investing in innovation, and small enterprise, and our manufacturing sectorl.
We are not going to break our economy, but rather should invest in innovative ways and compete in a healthy economy whereby new technologies are invented that will change the way we look at our daily lives, and our future.
I am asking myself why we need SUV's when the roads are so decrepit and not maintained, and we fear not enough oil supply for the coming century, and by the way it could be that our Arctic oil could only supply us with a limited 18%. Do you know that if jets would fuel only at 2/3rd's of their onboard supply, that it would save 25% emissions.
Yes, this is good news that the 'bloc' is losing it, and that g.duceppe is not popular in his camp since he left his party without any warning to become chief of the pq...This is why he wanted to show mighty leadership and cause a commotion against the coming TS.
Let me tell you that p. marois of the pq had to answer to the Press today about how she landed her estate, and that recently the Gazette has brought this to light. If they can prove anything this would be another blow to her party and her followers.
We are all going to be seeing another year of election hype, and like last year, and the year prior, we are all going to keep it alive because it suits our PM to keep all distracted, rather than work with the real issues.
hollinm, correction, S.Harper and 'bush' and J. Howard do not believe in global-warming, only in climate change...there is a difference in their minds!
Nice talking to you also.
28 Sep 00:43
hollinm
Hi blossom:
There will be an election because Mr. Dion is so arrogant he feels that he will look better in a campaign than in the House of Commons. This doesn't make sense but he is imploding and the party is rebelling against his leadership. The problems in the Liberal party will translate into Canadians believing that Dion is not capable of being Prime Minister and the Liberal party is not a government in waiting.
Given what I said above Harper will get a majority government. I know that strikces fear into the heart of Liberals but that will be the reality.
Before I accept your assertion that sacred social programs have been cut you will have to tell me which ones you are talking about and whether the cost benefit analysis supports continuing with the pet programs of Liberals.
Based on your assumption that there will be no election then there will be a budget and watch for big personal income tax cuts in the next budget. You can bank on it.
All of the issues you mentioned that need addressing should have been addressed by the Liberals in their 10 years in power. You comment cements my belief that the Liberal were busy stealing our money and not addressing the pressing needs of the country.
Blossom you can talk about Kyoto but it is dead. We cannot meet the Kyoto targets within 4 years without bankrupting the country. Without the major polluters involved it will not matter matter damn. Its time to move on. Let the Conservatives implement their policies and then if it doesn't work then they can be criticized. To have the opposition introduce bill C31 via a private members bill is a waste of time. Nobody can committ the government to spend money other than the government itself.
To say Mr. Harper does not believe in global warming is pretty presumptuous on your part. You have no idea what Mr. Harper believes or doesn't believe unless you are clairvoyant.
28 Sep 18:15
blossom
Hello hollinm,
I had an idea that this was a response from John Baird.
OK...how about the softwood lumber deal whereby we lost by signing 1 day ahead of getting back a billion $, +court fees, and tariffs that would be affordable for our future? The deal was rushed through, just so we could have better relations with the 'bush' administration"...I did not make this up. It was in the news just today!
Forget Kyoto, Canada, the US, and Australia are going for intensity targets, and emissions will be around until 2030, therefore, we shall have plenty of time to develop better energy consumption, and the hole deal! Nature has a way of defending and preserving itself!
We shall have another penny gst cut in 2012...however, I shall not be holding my breath that long. Better to buy a porshe in the good old US of A until then! This will also be good for our economy. Might help the US economy also.
Bill C30 - is Law...so what? Get Jack Layton's clean air act!
Some provinces are already doing for the environment on their own despite the Feds. So who cares?
As for elections: No elections this Fall!!! Who would dare?
It will still be the same mediocre minority!
I have crystal ball eyes!
29 Sep 01:49
hollinm
blossom...Susan Delacourt said on Don Newman's program on Friday that there will be an election because Dion wants one. She is all knowing and all seeing when it comes to the Liberals so as I said Mr. Harper will give Mr. Dion his election and we shall see what happens. Given the media coverage of Dion and the Liberals this past week Canadians probably have made the decision he is not ready for prime time.
You probably don't agree but I think Harper will get a majority because francophone Quebec will vote Conservative and a lot of Ontario will because they do not support Dion and the lacklustre Liberal party.
You can complain about softwood lumber but the fact is the forestry industry accepted the deal and it is better than all of those legal fees being incurred.
Bill C30 is dead. It was not tabled and so died on the proroguing of parliament. Sorry about that.
29 Sep 14:08
blossom
Hi hollinm,
Bet yah that there will "not" be an election...
29 Sep 19:04
hollinm
You are probably right but I am so sick of the opposition parties pretending to be the government via proxy without being held to account for those decisions that it is time we had a real government who can make decisions. It's only 4 years and then if we don't like what they did then we can defeat them at the polls.
29 Sep 20:02
blossom
Hello hollinm,
I just do not understand the way you think? 4 yrs (actually only 2 yrs) can be a long time if one is on the wrong course!!!
However you have me laughing, because I can understand your frustrations...
Try listening to what is said by the Opposition in order to clarify those issues. Just go by the logic of what one party is saying at a time. Then use your judgment, and the answers will become clearer to you.
Stop listening to the medias, or whatever, and listen to the messages of each Leader. Open your mind to ideas that are put forward, and let time decide, and clarity and wisdom will prevail. Take one issue at a time, and see the logic behind the arguments.
Take out the political games, and see where you stand on each issue. You can't go wrong!
Good luck,
bloss
29 Sep 20:50
hollinm
bloss... you and I must be watching and listening to different media in this country. When was the last time the Liberals ever espoused a policy that is different than the gvoernments. They just say they do not agree with the Conservatives. What is the Liberal plan for the environment..a carbon tax that will be passed on to consumers.
What is the Liberal plan for Afghanistan? Depends on which day you listen to Dion talk. What is the Liberal plan for poverty in this country?
Dion has nothing to say other than call Harper and the Conservative government names etc. That's not opposition....that's just a whinny opposition leader. Read the Globe and Mail editorial today. It sums it up pretty good.
Hate to tell you this but I have voted Liberal and Conservative over the years starting with Mr. Trudeau. They all disappointed me. However, I will never vote for a party that stole/misappropriated my hard earn money for their own partisan benefit.
29 Sep 22:08
hollinm
Hi blossom:
Unfortunately politics is a rough game and when the leader speaks he has to accept responsibility for what he says. The party can't help him and I saw nothing that would indicate that they did not support Dion until this past weekend. You can blame the opposition but if the ads put out by the Conservatives were in fact baseless Dion would not have been tagged a weak leader by the public. When you compare his appearance and that of Mr. Harper there really is no comparison blossom. One looks prime ministerial, the other looks like a nerd and talks like one. Dion has that prissy, professorial look and when he speaks he looks like a teacher lecturing his class with that pompous, arrogant condescending way. Looks matter in this age of TV and people compare the two when they appear side by side. May not be fair but that's the reality.
Mr. Dion came to power last December. He first said on Afghanistan we have to pull out. Then when that didn't work, he said we had to pull out with honour and then he said we need to stop the combat mission in 09. Then he began saying we can stay doing other things. Harper has said from day one that the extension of the mission would require a vote in the House. He doesn't need to do that because decisions about war are left to the PM. That's why he had the vote extending the mission to 09. However, if Mr. Dion is a true leader, rather than opposing, he would work with Mr. Harper in the best interest of the country, rather than just by opposing for the sake of opposing. That's not responsible leadership.
Dion hasn't put one concrete new policy in place for people to judge him. He runs around the country saying he will reverse income trusts, equalization, implement Kyoto. Those are not policies those are opposition tactics. Nobody in Canada, unless they are extremely naive believes he will reverse those policies. It reminds everybody of the GST promise in 1993.
Kyoto has been proven to be impossible to implement in 4 years. It will kill the economy and why would we do that when no significant change will take place with global warming because the major polluters i.e. U.S.A, China and India are not part of the Kyoto Protocol. If it was so easy Chretien and the gang would have done it years ago. Think about it blossom. By the way it was Bill Clinton that rejected particpating in Kyoto, not George Bush. Bush continued with the same policy.
Any discussion about Iraq is irrelevant. We are not there and it was maybe one of the best decisions Chretien made. However, I would remind you it was Chretien and Martin that sent us to Afghanistan. Now we are there and it is very difficult to get out of an international obligation without losing face in the world.
You are right it is necessary to look at all sides. I voted for Trudeau. He said no wage and price controls, he implemented them. He introduced the National Energy Program which virtually destroyed Alberta and caused a recession in Canada. He and Chretien as finance minister started the deficit spending and created Canada's debt load.
I voted for Mulroney because I thought he would do something about the deficit. It got bigger. Then the scandals but then there was Free Trade. I wasn't happy about the deficit but I supported him because I thought Free Trade was good for Canada. Then came the GST and Mulroney lost me. Chretien promised in 1993 (remember the infamous Red Book) that he would get rid of the GST and abandon Free Trade. I voted for him. Guess what we still have Free Trade (which is good) and the GST. Chretien would have lost the 1997 election but because the Conservative movement was split he got a majority government. I moved to the Reform Party because there was no other choice in my mind. The Liberals proved through broken promises that they could not be believed. Then we had adscam and Gomery. I rest my case.
So while I admit I am Conservative in my thinking I do look at the leaders and the policies of each party and make my decisions. Based on the current makeup of the Liberal party and the current leader I will stick with Mr. Harper. However, that could change if Dion gets his act together. No on second thought that won't change. Liberals, based on their track record, cannot be believed. That's why they lost Outremont. A leader needs to not only be strong but look strong and decisive. Mr. Dion, I am afraid does not fit that bill no matter how honest etc. he is.
19 Sep 07:25
hollinm
Here are my comments previously written on this board. You and blossom are missing the reality of the situation. The Libs are not prepared to see Quebec go to the Bloc or Conservatives.They are not a patient lot these days. Opposition doesn't agree with them:
There will be no election this fall because it is not in the best interest of the opposition parties all for different reasons. However, the opposition better not get too cute because if they put the Afghanistan mission or the environment as drop dead issues in order to support the Throne Speech they could get an election if Harper declares any or either of these issues a confidence vote.
Mr. Dion is looking pretty silly these days saying he wants 4 things included in the TS including the old Liberal canard ending poverty. I seem to remember the Liberals touted that in one of their Throne Speeches way back when. So what's the problem? There is still poverty? Another broken Liberal promise.
The loss of Outremont will not spell the end of the Dion leadership yet. It takes too long to organize a convention (it took a year last time) and so there is not enough time before the next election even if it is in Oct. 09. However, the long knives will come out because Dion will have shown he cannot deliver Francophone Quebec. They still hate him for the Clarity Act and his many letters written to the sovereignists telling them how terrible they were.
Anybody who watched Dion's interview with Peter Mansbridge this week and the reason given for not going to Afghanistan will see him as a weakling and maybe even a coward. Somebody not prepared to ensure he has all the relevant facts first hand about the situation on the ground before making a final decision on the future of Canada in that war torn country.
16 Sep 17:33
parnel
The issue of Dion's leadership comes from the press trying to build a story line and, I suspect, rumours planted by the Conservatives. This is their type of strategy and dirty politics is their game particularly under Harper.
Dion is well liked by the party faithful and Iggy doesn't have enough strength within the party brass to be undermining his boss. So in my opinion that story is also false
16 Sep 19:45
hollinm
You can continue to believe what you will. However, Dion will never sell in the West and large parts of Quebec. That means he will never be prime minister of Canada. Maybe prime minister of Ontario.
16 Sep 22:09
parnel
No one gave Dion a snowball's chance in hell to win the liberal leadership. All he did then was to be consistent and firm in his convictions. He alone turned Harper "green" once he was elected and he continues to drive Harper's agenda on the environment, the war and other issues.
Dion 's best wish is to win one seat in this by-election and stave off a general election for a little while longer. He is growing into the job and will one day be PM because Harper simply does not have what it takes in the leadership department. His real views generally go against the thinking of most Canadians and the polls show it. The only reason he still gets the poll results he does is due to the hangover the Liberals have from Adscam but that is fading. A desperate Harper still tries to keep it alive while hiding his own scandal over election spending that is yet to peak in terms of popularity hits. The fact his government is doing nothing because they have no popular agenda that suits a minority government also keeps him down.
[updated Mon Sep 17 04:38:18 EDT 2007]
17 Sep 04:38
hollinm
Mr. Harper probably knew that Mr. Dion was a Kyoto supporter long before he was elected leader (he was the environment minister). However, Mr. Harper, like all good politicians, recognizes what the public wants and in a minority parliament was pragmatic. In fact the Conservatives have neutralized the Dion factor when it comes to the environment. Dion looks like a zealot and still has not said how much his plan would cost the Canadian taxpayer and what sacrifices taxpayers would have to make. No matter what Dion does Harper will not destroy the Canadian economy just to see no change in the results of global warming worldwide because the largest emitters i.e. U.S. China and India are not part of the agreement..
As for the war, Mr. Harper said in opposition and it was in the 06 campaign platform that extension of the mission would be put to a vote before parliament. He is being consistent in that respect. He put the extension to 09 before parliament and it passed. Being prime minister he is entitled to put the vote to parliament when he wants to regardless of what the opposition parties say. It's more than Chretien/Martin did. In fact, war is the exclusive decision of the executive. Harper does not need anybody's approval to extend the mission if he so chooses. I suspect the decision to change the mission is driven by the fact that Nato has not come with sufficient troops and our casualties are disporportionate to the number of troops we have in Afghanistan.
In an interview with Peter Mansbridge on CBC news last week Mansbridge asked Dion why he hadn't personally gone to Afghanstan given his rhetoric that he is prepared to bring down the government over the mission if he doesn't get what he wants in the Throne Speech. Dion's answer was pathetic and confirmed in my mind he is no leader. It bordered on the cowardly and shows he is not prepared to get the facts first hand before he makes threats.
How is Dion growing in the job? It sure is not evident to me and with the infighting now taking place it is clear he does not have the leadership abilities to unite the party. Remember there were no MPs who supported his leadership bid. I think the party thought Dion could deliver Quebec but made a strategic mistake which they now have to live with.
I guess we differ on the qualities of leadership. Leadership is making the tough decision on issues like income trusts. Knowing what he had said in the campaign about income trusts do you think he did it just to piss people off? Not likely. On the equalization formula. He said in the campaign he was going to change it. He did but continued to allow Nfld, N.S. a choice and extended that choice to Sask.
Allowing have not provinces to become have provinces by excluding resources revenues from the formula and still collect equalization is irresponsible.
That's leadership my friend. Remember Dion and the war after he was elected leader. We want to pull out and then we want to pull out with honour, now we want the combat mission to end in 09 but we are prepared to stay for diplomacy and rebuilding purposes. That's not leadership. That's grasping at straws. If one thing doesn't work, try another, and another.
So The Conservative party (not the government) is guilty on the election spending issue before the courts and Election Canada have determined it to be the case. Where is the fairness in that? Hardly another adscam which the Liberals want to equate it to.
One final point I don't think you understand what is happening in Quebec. Quebec is looking for a federalist option particularly outside of Montreal. They are tired of the Bloc and its inability to deliver anything and the endless discussions about sovereignty that go nowhere but deeply divide the province.
Harper has put forward his view of federalism and that is one where the federal government respects its jurisdiction and does not interfer in areas which are provincial jurisdiction i.e. healthcare, daycare and the like. This is a big issue for Quebec. Dion and Layton are centralizers. They want big government, big social programs with the federal government controlling the purse strings and picking and choosing the priorities for the provinces. In other words the nanny state.
Harper is the only game in town in this respect and the Liberals will not change that view particularly under Dion. Coupled with this and the fact adscam still lingers and Francophone Quebec hates Mr. Dion the Liberals are a non starter in Quebec. The current byelections may not show this but in a general election it will.
17 Sep 08:38
blossom
Well said parnel, and I truly believe that we are going to see real action in the "House" when in session next October, and from the Liberals.
19 Sep 22:18
blossom
Hello parnel,
Iggy's delegates were mostly stary-eyed ladies! Although the Press doesn't like S.Harper, I agree that for many reasons, they are bantering on M. Dion to make waves.
19 Sep 00:18
e guye
parnel - did you watch coverage of the byelections tonight? Care to change any of your comments?
18 Sep 01:52
parnel
I'm not changing anything...Dion simply underestimated the "name" guy the NDP ran and put all their firepower behind. That won't happen in the general election and pretty soon Layton will find out what a non team player Mulcair is. The other two ridings went much as i thought
22 Sep 16:47
supper
I think an election before the New Year. As whatever happens in Quebec, momentum will be gained to push for an election. All parties seem locked in and ready.
[updated Sun Sep 16 15:13:16 EDT 2007]
16 Sep 15:13
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blossom
Hello Nik,
I don't! Even should Thomas Mulcair, former Minister of the Environment win this by-election will have no future adverse effects for the Liberal party in the event of a Federal election.
Thomas Mulcair is a much better known, ex-Provincial Liberal, and unfortunately Jocelyn Coulon is just not a well-known candidate, but a professor-journalyst whom I believe is just not that well-known by the grassroots. He has a quiet low-key profile, but much experience and knowledge in international affairs. He will stand strong with those who oppose the Afghanistan mission from continuing after February 2009, and with the Environment and at least trying to achieve the objectives of the Kyoto Accord.
I have no sense that whatever the outcome of this by-election is going to change one iota for the lack of support of the Conservative government in Qc. The transfer of votes to the Harper gov/t is just not felt out here.
Cheers,
[updated Sun Sep 16 15:54:56 EDT 2007]
16 Sep 15:54
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hollinm
There will be no election this fall because it is not in the best interest of the opposition parties all for different reasons. However, the opposition better not get too cute because if they put the Afghanistan mission or the environment as drop dead issues in order to support the Throne Speech they could get an election if Harper declares any or either of these issues a confidence vote.
Mr. Dion is looking pretty silly these days saying he wants 4 things included in the TS including the old Liberal canard ending poverty. I seem to remember the Liberals touted that in one of their Throne Speeches way back when. So what's the problem? There is still poverty? Another broken Liberal promise.
The loss of Outremont will not spell the end of the Dion leadership yet. It takes too long to organize a convention (it took a year last time) and so there is not enough time before the next election even if it is in Oct. 09. However, the long knives will come out because Dion will have shown he cannot deliver Francophone Quebec. They still hate him for the Clarity Act and his many letters written to the sovereignists telling them how terrible they were.
Anybody who watched Dion's interview with Peter Mansbridge this week and the reason given for not going to Afghanistan will see him as a weakling and maybe even a coward. Somebody not prepared to ensure he has all the relevant facts first hand about the situation on the ground before making a final decision on the future of Canada in that war torn country.
[updated Sun Sep 16 17:28:45 EDT 2007]
16 Sep 17:28
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wlloydm
I don’t think the results of the by-elections, per se, will cause any of major parties to seek an election in the near future.
Since, to force an election the three opposing parties must all vote (with a descent and/or absentee here or there) against the government (presumably on the Throne Speech).
This will maintain after the by-elections in Quebec on Monday, no matter what the result (even if the Lib’s, say, won all three seats, which they, obviously, won’t). In fact, a quick calculation shows that this situation maintains even assuming the 3 Independents vote against the government and all 7 vacant seats go to one of the opposing parties (e.g. the Lib’s, or the Block – that is very unlikely off course and the more seats the Con’s pick up the harder it will be for them to be defeated).
As things stand right now there are four parties and they are very much polarized, each with respect to all the others. Thus, any gain, even perceived, in the by-elections in Quebec or elsewhere for one party will result in a loss, or perceived loss, for at least one of the other parties. So, one of the three will not be spurred to force an election simply based on the results of the by-elections.
This is a prime illustration of what I mean when I refer to the current situation as a ‘local stability’ (see in my reply to a comment for the blog entry “Green Party of Canada - Likely the Political Wildcard in the Next Election”).
The above is, of courser, taking into account only the impact of the results of the by-elections.
As things stand I thing Dion should be seriously trying to force an election whether the Lib’s do well in the by-elections in Quebec or not (to me he should have been trying since the Spring). Basically, it seems Dion’s only real chance at this time is to try to win a minority government. Even for this there will have to be some event(s) to destabilize the current situation (as above, I don’t think this the by-elections are sufficient). If the Lib’s do poorly, especially in Outremont, then Dion might as well try to force an election since he may not get another chance.
Of course Dion downplays the polls, especially Outremont, suggesting that they may not be accurate do to there being such a large undecided and many immigrants do not like to answer polls. This is an issue with any poll, even one taken very close to the actual day of the election. As long as there is a significant % of undecided and/or those not wishing to give an answer, in the poll; and/or, a significant number of no-votes in the election, then the poll should be inaccurate (it seems to me anyway). It may be that it predicts the order, but I don’t see how it can be relied on to predict the actual vote. So, Dion may have a point although the spread is a bit wide.
It will be interesting to see how close this poll is to the actual results on Monday. However, I don’t see the results changing the current political power struggle situation in any significant way.
Lloyd MacIlquham
[updated Sun Sep 16 17:37:40 EDT 2007]
16 Sep 17:37
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Dennis (Second Thoughts)
I'm not exactly sure what the point of this thread is. The by-elections will have an impact on general election calculus. Parties that do well will be emboldened. This is stuff that we've read in the papers for weeks. It's not what I'd expect from a pollster whose supposed to give us numbers you can't find anywhere else, right?
16 Sep 19:22
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JamesH
Of course it's been frequently noted that in Quebec in particular the Afghanistan issue is a hot button, but to what extent do voters in Quebec equate the Harperites with the Mario Parti? (otherwise known as ADQ) Certainly they are birds of a feather, does a rising tide for Mario lift Harper's boat as well? Hopefully someone more knowledgeable on Que issues could comment on this.
It would be interesting if the NDP won in Outremont, but if they do it won't be on their own merits. Of far more long term value to the NDP are the fortunes of Pierre Ducasse, a young man now living in Hull who ran for the NDP leadership last time and was very impressive in (dare I say it) a Trudeauesque way. If he were to win a seat in the next federal election I think he could instigate a very dramatic shift in fortune for the NDP in Quebec.
16 Sep 20:20
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e guye
By tomorrow night we'll have the answers - so this topic is (almost) already outdated.
A better topic, perhaps introduced on Tuesday, might have been - 'what do you see as the political fallout of the results of the 3 Quebec byelections?'
Then we would have something to sink our teeth into - concrete results.
16 Sep 20:58
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e guye
Nik, Quebec polls vastly under rated the fortunes of the NDP and Conservative parties in the Quebec byelections. One has to ask why? Were these polls, so far from the actual election results, meant to direct public opinion?
As one watched the Liberals after the main results were announced one saw:
Stephan Dion - looking as if he really wanted to go to bed and cry, but bravely carrying on as if these results were mere short term aberrations that could quite easily be overcome;
Michael Ignatieff - standing as far apart from his 'leader' as he could comfortably get - these results were I think worse than he had imagined such that they may even assault his leadership aspirations (who wants to lead a party going nowhere?);
Gerard Kennedy - looking crushed;
Martha Finlayson - looking not only crushed, also totally stunned.
Bring on the Ontario byelections.
Bob Rae may have a fight on his hands, Kennedy and Finlayson might as well retire into the limelight now - they don't have a snowball's chance in Hades.
18 Sep 01:46
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Bernie
Needless to say, the Liberals and the Bloc were very disappointed about yesterday's results. The Conservatives and NDP are elated. The results were not entirely surprising, if you have been reading Chantal Hebert's columns. This is especially so in Outremont where Mulcair, who is a veteran Liberal, now calling himself NDP, and who is a good politician and very popular. Had he run as a Liberal, or for any other party, he would have won. In Roberval I wasn't surprised either. but I must admit that I did not think the Conservatives would do as well in St. Hyacinthe, being closer to an urban center, Montreal., where conservatives have more difficulty getting support.
However Dion and Duceppe's disapppintment and Harper and Layton's ecstacy may be tempered by the following observations.
By-elections have little enfluence on the nation scene; They usually have very low turnouts, serious national voters are not all that interested; voters like to send messages in by-elections ; they tend to vote for the person and the local issues and they feel they don't have to be responsible as in national elections and as always things can change very quickly in politics.
Even with that the losing parties have some soul-searching to do and corrections to make before the next elections
18 Sep 10:46
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bcvoter
The bottom line is Canadians do not want Dion as Prime Minister, only corrupted Liberal members do!
21 Sep 20:13
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calmecam
There is not much to read in the tea leaves of the by-elections:
Liberals: Everyone is quick to critcize Dion but they forget that since he's taken the helm of the party, nationally, the Liberals are running neck-and-neck with the Conservatives. That, already, is a feat! It is a bit much to expect Dion to do well in Quebec when the Liberal brand has been beaten down to a pulp there before he won the leadership race.
Conservatives: The Bloc has been propping up the Conservatives so the Québecois have been asking "why vote for the Bloc and get none of the federal largesse, if the Bloc is only going to support the Conservative position?". This played in Roberval, where the forestry sector has been decimated by the Conservative sell-out to the US of our economic trade sovereignty for the price of $4 billion. In addition they found a star candidate in the former mayor.
NDP: This is indeed interesting. The Bloc is bleeding support and the Québecois, finally, are starting to realize that there is another federalist leftist option. Some of the disaffected Bloc vote that was traditionally Liberal could very well go the way of the NDP. After all, the party did triple its vote in that province in the last federal election. As well, Mulcair is a name around which the NDP could start to build a bit of an organization.
Bloc: The biggest change was for this party. The Bloc was going to be content to keep propping up the Conservatives until such time as the next provincial budget could be presented in Quebec. It was their hope that new PQ-leader Pauline Marois and ADQ-leader Dumont would defeat the Charest budget to provoke another provincial vote. This is no longer an option and hence Duceppe came out with his non-negociable list.
The significant change is that Quebec is no longer, federally, a two-party area.
There will always be a hardcore 33% Bloc support. The rest, for the first time, will be divided between the other three parties.
Don't be surprised to see some NDPers and Liberals coming up the middle in some rural regions in Quebec and some Conservatives slip up the middle on the island of Montreal.
The biggest change now is that Quebec can't be won. At least four parties will split the available seats.
[updated Wed Oct 03 17:56:06 EDT 2007]
03 Oct 17:56
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