New SES Research Poll - Federal Tories and Grits Close - Harper Best PM Advantage Weakens

I don't understand how Stephane Dion's numbers could be rising when he is effectively invisible.

He showed such promise at the Liberal Leadership convention with an established position on the very topical environment, a reputation for having a solid policy mind and for genuine integrity after the Quebec Sponsorship scandal, but so far has proven disappointing, to me anyway. Given that, it's a little surprising that the Liberal numbers have remained relatively stable.

[updated Tue Aug 14 09:57:21 EDT 2007]

Nick, while you got the final numbers in the last federal election spot on I have to question these ones. Much as I try I can't compute how a 4 point drop in NDP support and a 2 point drop in Green support translates into a 4 point gain for the Conservatives. Every left, centre-left person I know (and they are by large measure NDP and Green suporters) would sooner cut their right arm off as support Steve Harper and his ilk. As Liberal support has remained steady it seems your poll is saying these "swing votes" swirling around - a six to eight percent grouping of those labeled "weak or undecided" - are heading rightward to the Conservatives. Put me down as disbelieving.

This poll's 3.3% MoE shows the Conservatives could be as high as 39 or as low as 33 and the Liberals as high as 36 or as low as 30. In the end an interesting snap shot, but relatively meaningless - other than showing a stagnant national politcal enviroment. Three things might change that shortly - the end of summer (dreamin' and relaxin' time), Harper's third cabinet shuffle in 18 months and his prorogating parliament with its follwing new Speech from the Throne. Then let's see some September/October numbers.

Hi Nik,
Just lost my first post?

Today's Cabinet shuffle is an "Exercise in Futility".

Peter MacKay was an asset insofar as that he is young, outgoing in meeting dignataries from other Countries, and had a youthful mentality. Huge mistake. I now see him as S.Harper's right-hand man, and following orders. Min. Maxime Bernier likes to argue. No Diplomacy there. MacKay, at least knew when not to insist!

Jim Prentice is a loss, and the Natives will not benefit. Is this another step to delay the progress of this portfolio.

Softwood lumber was never settled adequately, and is still on the burner, although we do not hear too much about it. It will come back to haunt this new gov/t.Canadians are already paying higher dues to the US, and in less than the 18mths that had been predicted.

This new/ getting old gov/t is continuing to bleed the issues and policies, and will bleed itself to death.

We are going to see more of the same in this coming New Year, only worse, and the gap between those differences will heighten. The PM just does not have the caliber of choices that he could benefit from, or he just lacks higher level choice candidates.

I was startled to hear the PM borrow from the US administration, in his send-off to G. O"Connor, in stating that he had been the "architect" of upgrading the military...Din't karl rove just resign yesterday, because he has no place to go in gov/t, and want's to promote 'bush' in a possible coming book, so that history remembers them, perhaps not as those who created chaos in Iraq, and for the rest of the world.

I do not believe that Quebecers will forget this ever, and give their blessing to someone who paraphrases those that they oppose, and whose policies they are against. This new gov/t hasen't gotten the message yet!

I have read the first 8 comments prior to this post, but wish to return to the poll itself. The way I see it, they are all trading within a range, like stocks in a market or sector where the buyers and sellers don't really know which was they want to go. Yes it really is about the 6-7% (Regina Beach Boy), who are truely uncommited, not leaning in any direction. All elections are about that 15% of the population who really can be persuaded to switch from the Other Guy (party they last voted for federally) and actually show up to vote for You. Once the writ is dropped and voters (especially swing voters) are actually listening, Harper /CPC have advantage of lead(+3%, and leader; +8%) and may only need 38% due to 3-way split on left; especially Ontario.
james -vancity

Nik: A cabinet shuffle is like rearranging the furniture in the livingroom----it is still the same house and the same furniture but, a little paint on the walls may spruce up the looks ! In my house, my wife calls the tune for paint and rearranging as there is one boss on the inside---rather like the current government Ho Ho.----I believe the fortunes of Stephen Harper are entirely dependent upon the calibre of the opposition and the appeal of policiy alternatives presented by that opposition.----The fortunes of NDP tend to wax at the mid term of government and wane as an election approaches---their Quebec numbers are nothing more than I would expect and, I am open to correction, they only ever elected one MP, Phil Edmunston. The fortunes of the Greens and the NDP are tied together ideologically so, if the Greens are up in a riding, the NDP are down or vice versa----they will cancel each other out.

If the calibre of the Liberals was outstanding, then Harper should tremble in his boots. Unfortunately, and without questioning the compentency or integrity of Dion, the Liberals have not been able to sieze the opportunity to run in front of the pack thus the Harper government lingers in minority land as they have not been able to seize the reins of a popular administration. The voter, like me, looks at Harper's one man rule and shakes his head. I then look at the liberals and admire Dion for his invention of invisible paint but I bloody well want to HEAR bold policy alternatives. Like most voters, I do not believe looking back solves anything as we cannot change history but we can decide what route to follow in the future. The Liberals appear to be mired in the present, saying how good this or that policy was in the PAST instead or formulating constructive policy for tomorrow. I believe Harper is quite safe for the moment and can rearrange the furniture and repaint the walls without challenge. Just Canadian politics. Love them or loath them, Diefenbaker, Trudeau and Mulroney were load and clear.

The cabinet shuffle will not alter voters perceptions to any appreciable degree. They are the same personalities. Many voters can't tell who is in what ministry. There may be a slight benefit in that some weak ministers were moved from more sensitive departments. but that also the departments they went to may also be less effectively run. Generally I agree it was as good as he could do under the circumstances.
Politics take a back seat in the summer so the polls at that time may not mean much. Only Harper was still campaigning. Dion is saving his energy and preparing for the Fall session. Layton has been sleeping all summer, May also.

However I was surprised that the NDP dropped 6%. And that Dion gained on Harper on the leadership scale since he was quiet all summer, while Harper was still trying to focus the limelight on himself.
Polls taken a few weeks after the fall session opens will be more interesting.

Nik: When I look at the polling numbers/percentages, I get indigestion.---36% is in the realm of a minority and 40% is in the realm of a majority. Seems to me that the majority of the electorate, 60% or more, is not represented. If there were two parties running, the FIRST PAST THE POST is quite fair and acceptable as it was when the parliamentary system evolved in Britain hundreds of years ago with the Whigs and Tories.

With at least three parties running today in every riding in Canada and sometimes six, the system is unacceptable. It should be law that an MP must have 50% plus 1 vote to be elected. If that is not so on the first ballot, those with less than 10% of the vote should be dropped or, where all receive more than 10%, then the candidate with the least votes dropped and another election held within two weeks. This is a simple and fair system THAT IS ALWAYS IN THE HANDS OF THE ELECTORATE---and I stress this point--IN THE HANDS OF THE ELECTORATE.. If this had been the electoral system in Canada, we would not be in the dithering parliamentary mess we have been in for the last two elections where the parties appear more interested in jockeying for electoral position rather than attending to the business of the Canadian people.

Seems to me that a government so elected would demonstrate stability for a four or a five year term in office------less expensive than a general election every 18 months with the incumbents feeling obligated to distribute costly public largess prior to an election as we see continuously in Canada.

Politicians Must Be Held Accountable

There is no question, that Politicians at all levels, Federal, Provincial, Municipal must be punished at the polls for putting Canadian Health and Safety at Risk, by allowing cramp, junk, food, drugs to enter Canada from the Communist Republic of China (some call China) but is a Communist State.

Canadians must make sure that Taiwan has a independent voice at the WTO, we do not care what this Evil Empire has to say!

Canadians and British Columbians within our circle of influence which is extensive to many parts of BC will no longer purchase any products “ Made in China” from any Canadian Retailer.

Importers and Exporters must apply for a new provincial license to be in this business, also the Ombudsman must do an investigation of those in government and the government employee’s that keep doing business with this Evil Empire

Useless QPP, Instead of wasting thier time and resources on this bloody summit in Montebello Quebec, these police should be investigating Jean Chretien and others in Quebec for the Sponsorship Program. What do say about that Blossom (the defender of wrong doing in Quebec) and it only happens in Quebec by the way

Day and the Quebec Police just give Canadians bull about this Montebello Summit they knew what they were doing. But they sit on their ass instead of arresting Jean Chretien for worst crime in the history of Canada, The Sponsorship Program, brought to Canadians by the Province of Quebec and French Canadian politicians. Nothing recommended by Gomery has been followed and the g.d. Liberals are to blame, everyone of these Quebec Police involved including the Head should be fired without pay or severance.

When politicians get elected, it is a rule of thumb that it is the encumbant's to lose, more than it is to win. Whether anyone has cared to admit it or not, 67 dead soldiers is a factor. Ballooning defense spending, with Harper acknowledging that a pullout is possible without victory, is a factor that cannot be denied. Right or wrong, whether it is a moral reason for us being in Afghanistan, or an immoral, defense spending for directorships and share options one to appease corporate lobbiest Republicans and corrupt lobbiest/politicians North and South, the facts do remain. No one likes to lose, especially a war that has been so costly to Canada.

Certain things simply cannot be ignored when it comes to Stephen Harper. His presidency of the National Citizens Coalition for 5 years, a rightwing group full of U.S. born multinationals with a sole aim to own the sectors that Canadians currently protect from economic takeovers, cannot be denied. Banking, insurance, healthcare, if these sectors were deregulated, the U.S. would buy us out quick and service costs would go up. With the banking sector alone, our economic sovereignty would be gone.

Already, the wheat board (along with any other board) is in jeapardy. The dismantling or sale of the CBC, and deregulation of communications, is being fast tracked. Would the sale of the sectors we currently have protected from economic takeover benefit the average Canadian? Only the greedy rich who profit instantly off of the sale of Canada would truly think so. Anyone else who thinks so, is mis-informed.

The question isn't really about Dion or his performance at all... but rather, its about whether or not Stephen Harper has Canada in his best interest... and that is something the voters feel uneasy about as a whole.

People have a tendacy to forget why Alta is so conservative. It goes back to U.S. foreign investment in the oil patch in the 70's and the NCC's ad campaigns and PR spins... (yes, the NCC has been around for a while). My wonder is why Albertan's don't see their opportunity to live like Saudi's, but instead embrace U.S. oil corp exploitation which takes the profits (and tax dollars of those profits) south.

Something is missing here. I suspect its the truth, but slowly, people are catching on... We might be cousins with the U.S., but we are also competitors in the business world and as soon as we forget this, we've lost the edge. As for Ontario, I believe 105 seats out of 308 are up for grabs there. If Ontario support for the Grits holds at 7 points past the Cons, this country could wake up to surprising election results come the next election.

One other point. When Garth Turner defected and joined the Libs, he took followers. How many voters is hard to say, but my guess is that its somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 Ontario seats. He shoots it straight, one of the few Conservatives to hold a Con seat in the 80's. People like him from all walks of life... and I must confess, so do I.