There’s a new ailment to add to our Canadian political dictionary – it’s called “newleaderitis.” Not usually lethal, but quite the political inconvenience.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper had a minor bout of it, but managed to defy the conventional wisdom and the naysayers.
No one thought a former Reformer from Alberta could win seats in Quebec, let alone unseat what seemed like the unbeatable Liberals – but he did.
Liberal Leader Stephan Dion is having his own case of newleaderitis. Having snatched the Liberal leadership from front runners Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, he seemed poised to rekindle Liberal fortunes.
According to the SES Research tracking, the 10-point Tory lead in May 2006 melted away to a statistical tie on the eve of the Liberal leadership.
The Liberal convention should have been a launching pad for Dion.
What happened? Quite simply, Dion went underground in December and the Harper Tories went on the attack – no honeymoon, no launch, no momentum. Love them or hate them, the Tory ads targeting Stephane Dion nipped a potential Liberal surge in the bud.
Indeed, by the spring of 2007, they had been so successful that Dion trailed Harper by a resounding 25 points on the best prime minister measure.
Of greater concern for the Grits is that, in his home province of Quebec, Dion trailed Harper by 33 points with only 10% of Quebecers giving the nod to their native son.
PRETTY GRIM
How bad was it? When the Liberal leader trails an Albertan Tory, a Toronto NDPer and a separatist on the best PM measure – it has to be pretty grim.
Looking forward, things may not seem as gloomy for Stephane Dion.
First, his accord with Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has laid the groundwork for strategic voting growth for the Liberals. May has effectively endorsed Dion as a “safe haven” for those leaning Green to cast their ballot strategically for the Liberals to block the Tories. Research shows Green Party voters to be quite principled, but soft in their support. In the ballot box, with a local Green win as a remote possibility, those principled soft-Green voters could tick the Liberal option. At 10% nationally, a marginal swing from the Greens to the Liberals could have an impact in tight races in Ontario and British Columbia.
Second, one should not underestimate the resiliency of the Liberal brand. In theory the Liberals should have been trounced in the last federal election. Led by a leader who had not met expectations, tired after almost 15 years of power and rocked to its core because of the sponsorship scandal, the Liberals still managed to deny the Tories anything close to a majority government.
Finally, expectations for Stephane Dion are so low that anything resembling a political pulse will likely be touted as Liberal momentum and rejuvenation.
The Achilles heel for Stephane Dion is still Quebec. Although he does not have to carry his home province, he does have to improve his personal numbers. Like Harper, Dion mathematically needs more seats in Quebec to form a government. The polling shows Quebec as the province with the greatest volatility – and volatility means political opportunity.
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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Hi Nik, I feel there is part to this story that is missing. The Liberal accord... more
arbie (Ontario) 01 Aug 13:17
Stephane Dion never "seemed poised to rekindle Liberal fortunes" and, *personall... more
drgmobile (Ontario) 01 Aug 12:37
I will be very interested to see if the Green/Liberal connection really pays any... more
BGlover (Alberta) 01 Aug 12:37
Parnel, I didn't say that Dion did nothing for the Environment- I said he did no... more
BillG (Alberta) 01 Aug 21:00
You are right we will obviously never agree. You believe in the socialist philos... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 02 Aug 15:54
What utter hogwash! Have you not looked at the leadership polls. If Canadians we... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 01 Aug 23:36
Comments
BGlover
I will be very interested to see if the Green/Liberal connection really pays any dividends to the Liberals. After all, being in power for 13 years, and Dion the Environment Minster for several of them, the only steps he took towards meeting Canada's Kyoto commitment was to name his dog "Kyoto". Further, given the Liberal tradition of being long on promises and short on performance, (both of these likely to be themes of the next Conservative election campaign), I suspect that much of the Green vote will not find it's way to the Liberal candidate. It may just stay home.
01 Aug 12:37
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drgmobile
Stephane Dion never "seemed poised to rekindle Liberal fortunes" and, *personally* I consider the Green Party accord smacks of desperation. By signing an agreement with it, all Dion did was give it legitimacy. In the long-term, I don't think it was a very strategic move.
01 Aug 12:37
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arbie
Hi Nik,
I feel there is part to this story that is missing. The Liberal accord with the Greens has caused troubles on the ground for the Green Party, to the point that the Greens in my riding actually considered not running a candidate. The net effect of this is, as you suggest a possible opening for the Liberals but it also augers well for the NDP. With Layton leading Dion on the "best PM measure" coupled with the strong NDP positioning on environmental issues, it is Layton's NDP who may be the greater beneficiary of Green misfortunes.
01 Aug 13:17
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Harlan Hulleman
I just finished reading a biography on Wilfred Laurier. Is Stephane Dion Laurier II? Laurier had a slow start as Liberal leader and spent nine years as Leader of the Opposion. My gut feeling is that Stephane will do better.
Harlan Hulleman
01 Aug 14:00
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Regina Beach Boy
Quebec as the king maker is nothing new to this country and will continue for the foreseeable future.
It's frustrating to say the least that we can once again expect the pandering to Quebec to continue at nauseum leading up to the next election whenever that may be.
One thing seems sure to me and that is expect the unexpected because I don't believe the current stalemate of ineptitude by all political parties to capture the hearts, minds and more importantly the votes of Canadians can continue.
Something has to break here.
01 Aug 14:05
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Tom Good
Nik: I am having difficulty disagreeing with your analysis.----I believe there is a difference in meaning between LEADER and LEADERSHIP.----All the parties have a leader, whether that leader is the best one or not the best one is debatable but, to me, LEADERSHIP implies a modicum of INSPIRATION which seems not to be obvious with the current "players" in the political stew. ----Good strong leaderSHIP also implies a strong and obvious TEAM known to all the electorate but the current front runners apparently do not want to be seen as sharing anything-----rather like poker players playing it close to the chest and ready to ambush.
Politicians are predominately having their own little games rather than attending fairly to the business of Canada-----no wonder they have "elevated" themselves to the trust level usually reserved for used car salesmen--Ho Ho
01 Aug 17:17
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blossom
Hello Nik,
There is absolutely nothing that you have stated that I can disagree with!
In this symbolic 'nation' state, we have a problem with the French biased Press and Media, who have always favoured the seperatist movement, and have always maliciously carricatured l'Hon. Stephane Dion, unfairly. I am speaking of 20% of the die-hards, who are still wearing blinkers, and who care only about their ambitions, and the heck with all Canadians, both French and English who have had it with this separation question.
In this province of Qc., they have not the Harperite mentality, quite the contrary. We have much French immigration, and this is where the problem ensues. We need more English immigration, and people who understand that nationalism was Hitler's obsession.
I believe that all voters across the Country are fed-up with Mr. Harper's last two years, and will want change. The war in Afghanistan, will have to change as the Liberal peace-keeping mission, that it was supposed to be. The South Korean victims taken by the taliban will not endear this war, and proves that we are creating more monsters, and less security for the whole world.
Let us not forget that this was 'bush's" war, and that our PM will always be on his sidekick's parallel course. Mr. Harper's new gov't is not popular both with Canadians and the Press. His policies, and his arrogant responses to the voters have made him rather unpopular, and as I have always stated, can never earn him a majority gov/t., which was what he really set out to do. It's all back-firing on him, and I still believe that S.Dion will be the next PM of Canada. The voters are smart, and will eventually see the magnanimity, honesty and the fairness with which S. Dion promises to lead this Country of ours into a troubled future.
The true Leader is not the one who uses the whip, but intelligence, logic, common-sense, and has already figured out what the people's will is, and where we want to see Canada with the rest of the world.
To l'Hon. Dion, I would say forget the legacy of the Liberal party's past, and be your own Leader, and rejuvenate this old Liberal party. Besides, the Harper gov/t has no new ideas, and just spinning the old Liberal ideas. When the PM is wrong, he tries to blame it on the Liberals. It's time for the Liberal party to initiate, and get the votes of the majority, and to select the best candidates that they can find - and I am disappointed about the candidate of one chosen riding, and I don't mean Liz May.
Nik, when you speak of volatility in this Province, you are right, and I expect that Quebecers will reconsider the last Federal vote with impunity, and come back to their senses.
Cheers,
01 Aug 18:18
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Elwan Lobo-Pires
The Liberal brand is the Liberal brand. Dion may trail Harper but at the end of the day fewer people trust Harper than they do Dion. That is a question that polsters may try asking voters the next time around. Besides committed Liberal voters who stayed at home last time and who also voted to punish the Liberals will mostly return to them to stop the Harper government. Jack Layton will surely come to rue his plea of the last election "please give us your vote this once to punish the Liberals".
Elwan Lobo-Pires
Mississauga, On
905-272-9386
01 Aug 22:25
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Bernie
Nik: I have a different perspective, not so much with what you say but with the topic itself. Have you done polls to see what significance voters give to "leaders" or "leadership"? Maybe there are significant numbers who view politics that way but my own poll is that voters are more educated and politically aware now. They are more interested in policy. The cult of personality is past. They are not sheep. They don't need leaders. They want politicians to follow them, and do their bidding.
The 'leadership' of the "leader" has no import.
Also we have always had 'newleaderitis' to use your term. Harper and Layton cannot be classified as new leaders and Dion sould be ripening soon. Ony May can fit that category.
Harper did not unseat the Liberals in Quebec. The Liberals (the previous gvmt) did that. But you are right no one expected Harper to pick up seats there.
In the Liberal convention, Ignatieff was the new guy, and Rae new to the Liberals. ( They were lucky they didn't pick Ignatieff, true liberals would never vote for him.)
Tom Good said it best. None of the party leaders has given me any reason to vote for them. There is no inspiration from any of them. They are consumed with themselves or their parties. What Canadians want for their country never enters the minds of the leading politicians. I plan to vote for May, unless a situation arises whereby a strategic vote is needed.
"the Tory ads targeting Stephane Dion nipped a potential Liberal surge in the bud." I know that's the convential wisdom , which by the way is generally wrong. ( it's practically an oxymoron). To the people that I know those ads turned turned them against Harper. and gave sympathy to Dion.
I don't think that there was a Libeal surge. It just didn't recover from adscam.
"How bad was it? When the Liberal leader trails an Albertan Tory, a Toronto NDPer and a separatist on the best PM measure - it has to be pretty grim."
That's just an aberation, caused by adscam. That's in the past now. That whole scene can change in one weekend. It had nothing to do with Dion as a person.(or leader)
Dion's accord with May is seen as a sign of integrity on Dion's part. (I doubt we'll never see that from Harper). It's democratic to see all groups represented in Parliament. Democracy to the whole country takes precedent over democracy to an individual or a district. They are not denied their vote for very long. I would willingly give up my vote for the short term for the greater good.
I hope that it's not "the Liberal brand" that keeps Harper from a majority (or defeats him in the future) but better policies from whichever party proposes them. I wish people would get off such low level political thinking. I don't care which party wins as long as it's good government.
If after the summer vacation Dion puts forth good policy and effectively communicates them he will have no difficulty getting seats in Quebec or in other parts of Canada.
02 Aug 09:39
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blossom
Hi Nik,
Your predictions are good...Pauline Marois is getting a seat in a riding whereby a 13 yrs minister is going to abscomb to letting her get elected in his riding. The adq is coming out with more nonsense, and is being wipped by the Press and Medias for his inconsistence, and meaningless statements. He just doesn't know where he is going, except that he's a nationalist also. I truly believe that mario's admirers have not caught on to this fact. He is pq., and as autocratic in his party as S. Harper is with his Cabinet members.
I do not see though, that voters will equate the adq with the Harperites, and that this will give more seats for S.Harper.In Qc, this is not going to happen a second time! It was a fluke the last time, because of the Liberal scandal. The problem lies that the youth seem to be siding with the adq (right), and the older generation Liberals are dying, and must not forget the silent English minority of this province.
I do not get the sense of how 'marois' is perceived yet, but the balance will tip between the pq and adq - unfortunately.
But I would bet my boots, that if those two parties are in majority mode in Qc., that the Liberals will get the majority of the votes in the next Federal election, and that Stephane Dion will be the next PM. Stephane Dion will be the next best solution to replace S.Harper, and obviously might enhance Qc's vote in the next election to counter-balance the Provincial elections. My money is on Stephane Dion, perhaps not on his own merits, unfortunately, but because there will be no other solution.
This is where we shall find out were most Canadians really want to go in the future. From what I have seen, the preview that we have had with this new gov/t, is not want most of us had in mind. In no way does it reflect what had been promised. His Cabinet has not been inspiring, and now the Harperites are considering more women on their team...They haven't exactly given women any incentives to join their party, have they? I don't get the sense that they really want to aim towards this, but since the Liberals are promoting and campaigning for more women, and will bring more voter influx, Harper is going to go for it also. It would only be in his own interest, once again.
Don't know if this makes sense to you?
Cheers,
14 Aug 04:37
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Lawson BC
Dion will never be Prime Minister, that is what I think, so you just wasting comments, now lets focus on these chinese companies and crap that is coming into Canada and was first allowed by these stupid Team Canada trips, which produced this crap Blossom
21 Aug 18:24
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