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SES National Ballot Tracking (as of May 1) - Liberal-Conservative Dead Heat - Greens Up
The latest SES Research poll completed May 1st shows a drop in Conservative support and an increase in support for the Green Party. Nationally, the Liberals registered the support of 33% of decided voters followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 17%, the Green Party at 10% and the BQ at 9%. One of the major shifts has occurred in Quebec with the Liberals picking up nine points and the Conservatives dropping 11 points.
Last month the resurfacing of the sponsorship scandal and the arrest of Lafleur hit the Liberals in Quebec. This month the focus on Afghanistan has put downward pressure on Conservative support in Quebec. The Conservative-Liberal political see-saw continues.
Of note, for the first time in the history of the SES tracking of the national political scene, the Green Party has numerically surpassed the Bloc in national popular support (Green Party 10%, BQ 9%). Even though a statistical tie factoring the margin of accuracy, the Green Party was the only party to pick up support in all regions except Atlantic Canada.
A combination of factors have been at play in the past month including focus on the new Conservative Environmental Plan and a greater focus on the Afghanistan Mission. This all adds up to a political stalement. What has also been interesting in the past few months is the steady decline of the BQ and the major voter swings in Quebec between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
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This is the reason that no election has been called. Dion would likely take an ... more
supper (British Columbia) 08 May 00:39
I believe the weakness and also the strength of this government is that it is es... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 May 02:40
I think that in Quebec the results are deceiving in that every vote for the ADQ ... more
alfeee (Québec) 08 May 06:32
"I t's good to see the rising support for the Green Party. The credit must go to... more
Candace (Alberta) 09 May 01:18
"That certainly is the spin." Actually, I'd argue that e guye is stating fact... more
Candace (Alberta) 09 May 01:46
Bernie (Ontario) No Harper won't be calling an election soon if Nik's polls h... more
e guye (Nova Scotia) 08 May 22:27
Comments
supper
This is the reason that no election has been called. Dion would likely take an easy majority once the writ is dropped and the other 3 parties will resist an election as long as possible. Harper is actively supporting big oil and opposing any real progress on climate change. All he has done so far is brought back watered down versions of Martin policies. This and his attitude towards war is not an easy sell in these times. I was hoping his green talk was real, but just turned into the same old.
08 May 00:39
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Tom Good
I believe the weakness and also the strength of this government is that it is essentially a one man show. In comparison to Martin, Harper is the undisputed CEO and one conforms or gets out---he has control !!!-- This is a weakness as he is unable to hear any goals/strategies/cautions other than his own.--George Bush is the albatross about his neck-------Not too sure that the surge in Green Party support across the land may be that some of the electorate is looking for a safe alternative as they possibly are getting a little fed up with the present political scene.---I do suggest the Greens will take votes from the NDP as Layton, in his support for the government, is compromising his party. Dion seems to be slowly finding his political way and lately, to me anyway, he appears to be delegating responsibility effectively. One thing about it, the electorate is mighty fickle and nothing looks to be assurred for the future election. ---Maybe the Quebec electors have got it right.
08 May 02:40
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alfeee
Thus far I think Stephen Harper is one of the best Prime Ministers we have ever had - he gets the job done, works for the people and not the press, fulfills our duty in Afghanistan and the rest of the world, preserves a working relationship with our best customer yet maintains our independence and I find the opposition pales in comparison. I think you're right in that the Greens are a real threat to the NDP as we see the waning influence of big labour as the auto industry re-aligns. I think that the Liberals now realize that they made a big mistake in selecting Dion and I think the results of the next election will confirm that belief. Great person but not a leader. I think the Quebec vote reflects the new Canada where pragmatism and the economy play a much larger role in influencing the vote.
08 May 06:46
Tom Good
That is the beauty of a democracy, Alfeee, we can all have an opinion and should have an opinion. If it is not under the auspices of the United Nations, I do not see what "fulfills our duty in Afghanistan" or in Zimbabwe or in South Timor or in the Sudan for that matter. All of our former governments have had a good working relationship with "our best customer" and WE are also THEIR best customer. If Harper wishes to kiss George's backside, then go for it but do not include me. I appreciate that you wish to see a conservative government prevail however, in my opinion, Harper is not the right man nor is Peter McKay who seems to be as big a disappointment as Martin proved to be.
08 May 21:18
Candace
Tom, I'm not sure about your reference to the UN and Afghanistan. This is a NATO mission that is supported by the UN. So what is your point there?
I also have to disagree about previous governments having a good working relationship with the US. Have you forgotten Martin bashing the US for not signing on to Kyoto (during early days of the last election) when they have done a far better job of controlling their rise in emissions? You call that a good relationship? Who was it that stomped on a George Bush doll? Yikes.
I will, however, agree with you that Peter Mackay is a huge disappointment. On the flip side, I'm with Alfee re: Harper. He's not perfect, but he's the best we've seen in a few decades as far as I can tell (I was a kid when Trudeau was first elected, so don't have much of value to compare him to).
09 May 01:33
Tom Good
Hello Candace:---None of PMs were perfect but generally they have been a pretty good bunch in Canada no matter what their stripe---WEEELL, that means either Conservative or Liberal. They all eventually suffer from cumulative error and the government changes as you well know. I have voted in every election since first allowed in 1950 and was even the office manager in the local Conservative Association when Charet was running federally----too bad he jumped ship. Trudeau was effective initially but he should never have tried to come back after being defeated by Joe Clark----politicians sometimes become prima donnas and crave the lime light and never seem to be able to retire gracefully nor do they like to school a successor----seemingly have to be thrown out of office but that is politics. The Chretien-Martin rivalry was for the birds and did the governance of Canada no good.---- You would never have heard Tommy Douglas or John Diefenbaker-----they were orators when on the stumpings and, boy, could they hold the crowd.----Pre television days you know !!!!!!
09 May 02:19
e guye
Tom Good (British Columbia)
If you mean by a 'one man show' that Harper is the undisputable leader of the Conservative party, I agree. But you suggest that he does not heed any opinion other than his own - that is patently not the case.
At the very beginning of his tenure Harper plucked the Liberal David Emerson and invited him to his cabinet. Why? Because he realized that Mr Emerson could and would solve the softwood lumber dispute - he cut across party lines - reached out the find the best person to handle a matter of crucial interest in many regions of Canada, to many companies of Canada, adversely affected by the dispute. A matter was resolved that had dragged on for years under Liberal governship.
Harper did this knowing that it would bring criticism - but knowing it was the right thing to do. Harper listened to David Emerson.
Harper again reached across party lines to invite a Liberal to give advice on the situation in Afghanistan, because of that person's unique background and knowledge (I've forgotten the gentleman's name). Although no reports have been issued (why should they have been? We're in a war) - I'm sure he gave weight to opinions rendered.
Harper is steadfast in his support of his Defence Minister O'Connor, and I hope he remains so - in spite of frantic media criticism. I believe he listens to Mr O'Connor's opinions.
Harper sought the advice of Stephane Dion in the wording of the resolution declaring, finally and rightfully, that the Quebecois are a nation within a united Canada. I believe to clarify the 'nuances' of the phrase, not the intent, but nevertheless.
I am so tired of the Bush allusions - certainly Canada should and must co-exist amicably with the US - who with any sense would say otherwise? But so many of you tar Harper with the brush 'weapons of mass destruction' as if it was his statement, not Bush's - as if Canadians were in Iraq, not Afghanistan. So many of you forget that Canada is in Afghanistan under the auspices of the UN, not George Bush. That Canada is fighting, with other countries, to improve the lives of Afghanistans as a whole - under the auspices of the United Nations - not to destroy Afghanistan people. Have you conveniently forgotten Harper's views on Canada's northern waters? His efforts re cross border documentation, now I think bearing fruit?
And are you somehow privy to inner meetings of the Conservative party in Ottawa? If not, how do you know that Harper doesn't listen to his cabinet, party members? This is just a convenient mistruth bandied about by the media of the Left - bought and paid for by the Liberals for a generation - and swallowed down whole by people like you.
08 May 23:45
Tom Good
Hey, Guy, a couple of points. Khan was the Liberal who became an "advisor"and thus also removed the government from the vulnerability precipice. Just took one and crossing the floor is legitimate in our parliamentary system. The Conservatives had no representation from two of Canada's major cities---Vancouver and Montreal. Emmerson was recruited and Fortier plucked from the Senate----quite legal and, if I might say, a brilliant political move and I wrote to Harper and told him so----got an official birthday greeting signed by the PM. Now on the Middle East-----when in opposition Harper was gung=ho supporting Bush on going into Iraq and Chretien, when he got the flack, responded...."the last I heard, Canada was still a sovereign nation". Martin acquiesced and agreed to participate in the Afghanistan campaign to keep the peace and to help with reconstruction thus freeing some American forces for Iraq. That role has morphed from generally peace keeping and reconstruction to peace making-----quite different. The role was extended to February 2009 without debate in the house. Afghanistan has changed from solely an American initiative to a NATO one at present----it is not under the United Nations initiative. All politicians, political parties and governments have some good points that is why Canada, in my opinion, is one of the most envied places in the world to live. Similarly, governments have weak points or follow their idiology without taking the majority of their electorate with them. In my opinion, Harper is headed in that direction.
09 May 01:13
blossom
Tom, guess you got lucky to get a birthday card from S.Harper...I din't, and my
birthday is one day apart!!! I also wrote that I liked the idea of Khan crossing the
floor, but we never got an account of what it cost, and what was surmized by his
visits to the Middle East. Why the secret? There was no accountability, and only
silence! You are right about not having any representation in Montreal - It's block,
and pq...Can't do much with that! As for David Emerson, he was quick to make a
deal on the soft-wood lumber, but we are now back to square one, and will be back
in the Courts, whereas, had we waited, we would have retreated the $1billion dollars,
plus the Court costs,
and now the duties are going up again. As for Afghanistan, we are back to square
one again, although some progress in the North is a little apparent, but we can not
continue in the South without participation from other Countries, and Harper does
intend extending the war after 2009, and so far without a debate. Harper is a one
man show!
28 May 16:52
blossom
Hello Tom,
All hell is breakings news, and ustability at all levels of governments are unpredictable,
and changing weekly, which is not good for voter support. Out here, we are totally
confused, and although pq might be eliminated, don't under-estimate pauline marois,
who has no shame, and had been rejected twice by the pq as their leader. She is not
really liked, but since the pq is so desperate, and she is one hard-liner for the die-hard
separatists. I see the pq alligning themselves with the adq, who is not especially popular
yet, but both are bent on defeating the provincial Liberal gov't of Premier Charest...They
will shy at nothing. It is worry-some out here, and finally today, our Premier said that
he did not want another election - I get the sense that he would really lose his minority
gov't this time around, however, another $75m for another election in two months would
be a gross mismanagement of monies...for this province. I like Eliz May, but she is far
to the right...Harper has rendered a semblance of a disfunctional Parliament, and this
week should tell us if he shall be in election mode by next Fall, after a long summer
recess. I see that the Liberals would get a small majority, by then, if the Press and
medias stop belittling S. Dion, who has a vision for Canada. Afghanistan, and lack of
a plan, will be a defeating point for the Harper gov/t. By next Fall, 'bush' will be forced
by the Dems to start pulling out of Iraq. If cheney/bush decide to attack Iran, we shall
be in a 20yrs + Middle East war, and the shift of the US empire will be forever lost!
I see the pq and adq aligning with one another, and as for the voters, I don't even get the
sense of what will happen??? It's up to Charest to convince the electorate, and will he
be able to hold the power??? If not, the Liberals are finished out here! I agree with you
that Jack Layton's political ambitions, and harbouring with this gov't isen't helping him
at all. He's with the unions and Harper all of the way, and hope that this adds votes to the
Greens, but not enough for an opposition. Too soon.
28 May 02:56
Tom Good
Yes, Blossom, there seems to be a mess everywhere. An American flotilla steaming into the Gulf of Oman and rattling the swords over the four dual citizenship people who have been detained----any excuse is better than none ! ! ! Do not know what Marios may or may not do and Charet may yet compromise although today he says not BUT there is a tomorrow.
As with Harper, politicians do everything to survive and Charet has the survival instinct. Sit back for a week and see what does or does not happen. Harper may be trying to see which way the wind is blowing for an election-----interesting---today we were phoned by the local PC riding association to see if Harper would receive our support--Ho Ho. The local Liberal riding Assn. is moribund----do not believe they have taken a single breath in two years but if an election is called, I am sure they will run a dog----will have to see if there is someone of stature locally for the Greens. I have written to the provincial and federal headquarters about this riding but no response----sad ! ! !
28 May 03:54
blossom
Hi Tom,
Well I phoned the National Liberal party this AM upon hearing that possibly Jean Charest's
caucaus wanted to possibly change Leadership, but on French media, and am told
that they haven't heard anything about this. Jean Charest has support from the
Anglophones...It seemed that the pq wanted to support the budget, but are flirting with
the adq??? I was also told that Jean Charest is meeting with S.Harper this week???
This uncertainty, both at the provincial and federal level is really bad for this province,
and for the rest of Canada!
Have you seen all the arsenal surrounding Iran by the US...This is delusional, and there
is no way the US could win if the Middle East engaged in a war which was fired by
bush/cheney. Cheney is the master-mind behind the war in Iraq.
One would think that S.Harper already knows that his days are numbered if he should
maneuver an election? Tom, you can't imagine how fed-up we are out here just sitting
and waiting for whatever is going to happen out here. dumont is not as popular as they
would like us to think, and the pq, one would have thought was of the past, just as the
bloc.?
I am hopeful that Jean Charest will do whatever he has to do to avoid an election - They
blasted him during the last election for not giving tax-reliefs, and now forcing him to
change what they blamed him for not doing. Personally, I would have prefered for the
monies to be put back in much needed services, however, eight provinces have given
back tax breaks...It's easy to see that the opposing parties are just trying to gain
power, and undermine the gov/t. Who is going to go to the polls this summer, when
everybody's vacationing?
Cheers,
28 May 11:06
Tom Good
Well, Blossom, I do not know what is going on either except these minority governments just do not seem to work in the Canadian context. In my opinion, a very slim majority appears to be the best government that demonstrates excellent hearing. When a minority government comes up or I hear the pundits say the elected member should be responsible to their electorate only or some group is pushing an alternate election ballot scheme, I think of the instability demonstrated by modern-day Italy. An overwhelming majority is equally bad as demonstrated by the first election of the Campbell government in BC, the first election of Diefenbaker and the first election of Chretien after Mulroney-----a huge majority breeds a huge ego/arrogance/deafness.
28 May 13:24
blossom
Yes, Tom, I agree that a slim majority gov't seems to work better, but minority govt's,
such as Harper's is only intent on a majority, and acting as though he has, and
has no vision for this Country on the longterm...He is maintaining that he can not
accomplish anything in the House, because he lacks a majority - which is not the
case. He is wrong on all issues, and his platform of transparency, and accountability
is contrary to his present actions. Committees have been stifled, his Environment
plan is a scam for big oil. If you look at the medias, we are concentrated in the
military approach, as though nothing else will work, rather than addressing the real
social problems.
Out here, dumont is a one man show, who has already been discredited, and the
pq, who are die-hard separatists, but said that they would refrain from a referandum,
are constantly undermining us with the rest of Canada.
For instance, in La Presse this am, Association of the French language has removed
a nurse, and 71 others, whom the hospital say are very competent, because their
French is apparently not up to par...Why would their conseurs insist that they are
very competent - this must also include their French fluency?
Out here, we have a lack of specialists, family physicians, and trained nurses, and
they fuss about French language perfection. Unless you go to a recognized big
hospital, they don't understand English...I thought that Canada was bilingual?
I just read "From the Heart" an autobiography by Jean Crethien, and it explains
a lot of what happened, and how one has to be on his toes, because even within
their own parties, there is so much dissent. And what a sense of humour he has!
I would like to cite examples on what he had to do in order to help the West;
and it is easy reading, however, it would take a lot of words on this blog.
It's getting so that we do not know who to trust, and the medias make the news
rather than report them factually. They slant the news, and a lot of misinformation,
and words out of context are referred too often. Same with the polls - people want
to go with the winner; who are presently the losers!
Still, I do not yet believe that the adq will bring Harper further votes.
I see that the adq is going to win, and not because dumont is liked, and the pq not
yet in a position to gain a majority gov't, and the Liberals are out! unless voters really
make an effort to go to the polls, and I mean the Anglophones, since Jean Charest
has never been popular with the French. They are so brain-washed!
As I said I like Eliz May, but she is backward on women's issues.
What I like about being a Liberal is that I am in the middle, but on certain issues,
I can lean either left or right. I need room to maneuver!
Cheers,
28 May 16:02
Tom Good
Hey, Blossom, it is called "wiggle room"---Ho Ho
28 May 16:09
blossom
Tom, you're not kidding! They are stifling the system, and I need more
wiggle room, especially in this province! ha-ha
28 May 16:26
alfeee
I think that in Quebec the results are deceiving in that every vote for the ADQ is a Conservative vote in a Federal election. The people in Quebec are more Conservative now than I have ever seen them. I see people talking about getting things done under the Conservative party today who were among the "never votes" who had become so accustomed to the under the table dealing of the Liberals. I hope everyone has now given some thought to the impact of an inevitable national labour strike in the govnernment- sponsored daycares had this Liberal idea been implemented. It seems everyone is in favor of the Green party because the thought of everything green is so appealing and Canadian "nice" but this gets changed when the leader opens her mouth (or we hear about the collusion with the Liberals to buy her a seat) or we read about the real motivations of the Al Gore program or eureka, we're made aware of the real cost the fallacy that is Kyoto.
08 May 06:32
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Bernie
It sure looks like Harper will not be calling an election soon; until or unless some unforseen significant event or issue arises. All polls are short term. None of us has the prophetic capacity to say what the polls will indicate next week, month or year. Things change rapidly. It's good to see the rising support for the Green Party. The credit must go to May. It's not often that the other parties have to contend with someone with that level of intelligence and good judegment.
08 May 07:34
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Eli Xenos
The shift in Quebec, Liberals picking up 9 points and Conservatives dropping 11 points, is big swing. Traditionally Quebec voters have had a good nose for winners. Do they smell something bad about the Conservatives, or are they honestly confused? But an 11 point drop is huge. Quebec voters make Alberta voters look like fence posts.
08 May 14:27
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e guye
Is it unusual that people were asked to name their two top choices? It certainly isn't a clearcut 'first past the post' question - maybe more in line with electoral reform we have seen discussed lately.
I've tried to figure out the responses based on the question. The question 'For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current preferences?'
Okay, So I'm on the 'right' - I have one choice, the Conservative party. But say I'm on the 'left' - I have two main parties, the Liberals and the NDP, and also the Green party, that I can vote for. So let's play this out.
I'm a strong Conservative supporter. So naturally my first choice will be the Conservatives. Now for a second choice, and taking the poll seriously, I must support either the Liberals or the NDP (I wouldn't support the Greens). If, again, I'm taking this poll seriously I guess I would choose the Liberals, as being the closest in ideology to the Conservatives, even though the thought of voting Liberal is repugnant to me.
As a person of Conservative views, I would not vote for either the NDP or the Greens, as my political ideals are too far removed from theirs.
But let's suppose I'm a Liberal. Then I would vote for the Liberals first, probably the NDP second - the Conservatives are too far right to my taste. Or conversely, if I were NDP, I would vote for the NDP first, the Liberals or the Greens second. I'm not apt to vote for the Conservatives, a party of the right - I would opt as my second choice another party of the left, sharing more closely my political ideology.
To my way of thinking, this poll doesn't give a true indication of political ideology of those polled - and, hey, I'm prejudiced, but I think most Conservatives would answer these questions truthfully and you'd see a scenario much as I've outlined.
My thinking may be entirely wrong - can someone advise me?
08 May 21:39
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Smitty
Quebecers are NOT in love with Harper. But they must choose among parties and leaders that are all unattractive, and at times Harper is the least repugnant of the lot.
Quebecers have intensely-felt values. (1) a need for an autonomous provincial government that will promote their language, culture and a modern French-speaking society (2) still reacting to the rigid form of Catholic spiritual and temporal dominance imposed on their parents, their elites now aggressively pursue secular, even atheistic, social values (3) a centuries old set of international values, based on an unusual knowledge of the overseas world (Quebecers have provided missionaries all over the world for hundreds of years) that reject subservience to any imperial power (London or Washington) and demand justice, favouring in particular the down-trodden.
The Bloc Québecois mouths these values, but Quebecers know that it has no impact at all on government. It is, as well, in total disarray as the separtist parties in Quebec and Ottawa once again eat their young. Voting for the Bloc is a wasted vote, but it may be better (in the minds of some) than voting for a party that will do conscious harm.
The NDP shares certain Quebec social and international values, but its cultural level still reflects its former union base. It has no affinity for the French language or sympathy for provincial/municipal levels of government. It is simply not credible in Quebec.
The Liberals reflect Quebec social and international values. However, in addition to the continued smell of corruption, and the return to power of a Chretien-era minister (Dion), the Liberals have served as the "negro kings" for the Anglo-Canadian establishment - with a Francophone leader, but pursuing policies developed in central English Canada and perceived to be aimed at preventing the development of Quebec's social and economic well-being. Liberals are against not only separation, but any hint of enhanced Quebec power. For Liberals, it is through the Ottawa government that Quebecers will pursue their development - a thesis that is increasingly difficult to sell to a highly-educated Quebec population, humiliated by the cynically corrupt schemes of the Chretien era.
The Harper Conservatives reflect views on regional autonomy that are very attractive to Quebecers. However, on all other fronts, the Harper government is rejected. His linguistically inept ministers say the right things about Quebec autonomy etc, but when they need an interpreter to do so, it loses credibility. Worse, the Bible-belt social values of the Reform Party are non-starters with the atheistic, feminist, gay-loving Quebec elite. The show-stopper is Harper's foreign policy. Afghanistan is only the tip of the iceberg. Quebecers, generally friendly towards the US, detest the Bush administration and all it stands for. Harper's obvious admiration for it is unacceptable to Quebecers. Quebecers are humiliated and outraged by Harper's support of Israeli wars and his generally anti-Arab, anti-African, anti-Third-World stance. Similarly, Darfur, Haiti, the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire and, indeed, all other "do-good" missions, at the heart of internationalist Quebec values, get short shrift from Harper and his team of ridiculously unsophisticated ministers in the external area (McKay, O'Connor, and - most ridiculous of all - Stockwell Day).
Quebecers would like a government with Conservative values on the role of the provinces, the Quebec people, private-sector economic development, etc; NDP social values (welfare, gays, feminism, abortion, etc) and Liberal "do-good" foreign policy (at arm's length from US neo-cons). There is no political party that offers this combination. Therefore Quebecers must vote by elimination, de-selecting those that do the most harm. The perceived "threat" will shift from time to time depending on headlines and which politician was the last to put his foot in his mouth. It for this reason that Quebecers have supported the Bloc (that, at least, does no harm) and will in the next years seem very volatile in their swings of support. THe Canadian party that will capture their loyalty is the one that least threatens Quebec values in the areas of provincial development, social policy and foreign affairs.
09 May 12:13
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e guye
Apologies to Nik and others on the board - I was wrong on polling method. Although two choices were asked for, only the top or first choice was used in the poll; the second choice used for statistical data garnered for future use, predicting trends, etc.
Will try to be more careful in the future.
09 May 15:02
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SwathingScientist1
How does one ask for a new poll amongst Canadians--or Ontarions inparticular?.
"Do you agree,disagree with the Regional Government Scheme?,why?,Explain."
10 May 18:23
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blossom
Hello Nik,
What you are saying is true, but by next week, I believe that there will be a lot of
water under the bridge...It's getting so that we can no longer keep-up with our
disfunctional leaders, and political parties. I don't think that any of them know where
they are headed for, except a long summer recess. They are totally disfunctional,
and Parliament is becoming a sad joke! Why should we, the voters, have to put up
with this?
Cheers,
28 May 16:22
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drgmobile
With the Green Party rising in support, isn't this just going to split the left even further, ensuring that the Conservatives stay in power?
It's no wonder the Green Party's support is growing -- Stephane Dion the party with his non-compete agreement!
04 Jun 09:15
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