SES National Ballot Tracking (as of May 1) - Liberal-Conservative Dead Heat - Greens Up

This is the reason that no election has been called. Dion would likely take an easy majority once the writ is dropped and the other 3 parties will resist an election as long as possible. Harper is actively supporting big oil and opposing any real progress on climate change. All he has done so far is brought back watered down versions of Martin policies. This and his attitude towards war is not an easy sell in these times. I was hoping his green talk was real, but just turned into the same old.

I believe the weakness and also the strength of this government is that it is essentially a one man show. In comparison to Martin, Harper is the undisputed CEO and one conforms or gets out---he has control !!!-- This is a weakness as he is unable to hear any goals/strategies/cautions other than his own.--George Bush is the albatross about his neck-------Not too sure that the surge in Green Party support across the land may be that some of the electorate is looking for a safe alternative as they possibly are getting a little fed up with the present political scene.---I do suggest the Greens will take votes from the NDP as Layton, in his support for the government, is compromising his party. Dion seems to be slowly finding his political way and lately, to me anyway, he appears to be delegating responsibility effectively. One thing about it, the electorate is mighty fickle and nothing looks to be assurred for the future election. ---Maybe the Quebec electors have got it right.

I think that in Quebec the results are deceiving in that every vote for the ADQ is a Conservative vote in a Federal election. The people in Quebec are more Conservative now than I have ever seen them. I see people talking about getting things done under the Conservative party today who were among the "never votes" who had become so accustomed to the under the table dealing of the Liberals. I hope everyone has now given some thought to the impact of an inevitable national labour strike in the govnernment- sponsored daycares had this Liberal idea been implemented. It seems everyone is in favor of the Green party because the thought of everything green is so appealing and Canadian "nice" but this gets changed when the leader opens her mouth (or we hear about the collusion with the Liberals to buy her a seat) or we read about the real motivations of the Al Gore program or eureka, we're made aware of the real cost the fallacy that is Kyoto.

It sure looks like Harper will not be calling an election soon; until or unless some unforseen significant event or issue arises. All polls are short term. None of us has the prophetic capacity to say what the polls will indicate next week, month or year. Things change rapidly. It's good to see the rising support for the Green Party. The credit must go to May. It's not often that the other parties have to contend with someone with that level of intelligence and good judegment.

The shift in Quebec, Liberals picking up 9 points and Conservatives dropping 11 points, is big swing. Traditionally Quebec voters have had a good nose for winners. Do they smell something bad about the Conservatives, or are they honestly confused? But an 11 point drop is huge. Quebec voters make Alberta voters look like fence posts.

Is it unusual that people were asked to name their two top choices? It certainly isn't a clearcut 'first past the post' question - maybe more in line with electoral reform we have seen discussed lately.

I've tried to figure out the responses based on the question. The question 'For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current preferences?'

Okay, So I'm on the 'right' - I have one choice, the Conservative party. But say I'm on the 'left' - I have two main parties, the Liberals and the NDP, and also the Green party, that I can vote for. So let's play this out.

I'm a strong Conservative supporter. So naturally my first choice will be the Conservatives. Now for a second choice, and taking the poll seriously, I must support either the Liberals or the NDP (I wouldn't support the Greens). If, again, I'm taking this poll seriously I guess I would choose the Liberals, as being the closest in ideology to the Conservatives, even though the thought of voting Liberal is repugnant to me.
As a person of Conservative views, I would not vote for either the NDP or the Greens, as my political ideals are too far removed from theirs.

But let's suppose I'm a Liberal. Then I would vote for the Liberals first, probably the NDP second - the Conservatives are too far right to my taste. Or conversely, if I were NDP, I would vote for the NDP first, the Liberals or the Greens second. I'm not apt to vote for the Conservatives, a party of the right - I would opt as my second choice another party of the left, sharing more closely my political ideology.

To my way of thinking, this poll doesn't give a true indication of political ideology of those polled - and, hey, I'm prejudiced, but I think most Conservatives would answer these questions truthfully and you'd see a scenario much as I've outlined.

My thinking may be entirely wrong - can someone advise me?

Quebecers are NOT in love with Harper. But they must choose among parties and leaders that are all unattractive, and at times Harper is the least repugnant of the lot.

Quebecers have intensely-felt values. (1) a need for an autonomous provincial government that will promote their language, culture and a modern French-speaking society (2) still reacting to the rigid form of Catholic spiritual and temporal dominance imposed on their parents, their elites now aggressively pursue secular, even atheistic, social values (3) a centuries old set of international values, based on an unusual knowledge of the overseas world (Quebecers have provided missionaries all over the world for hundreds of years) that reject subservience to any imperial power (London or Washington) and demand justice, favouring in particular the down-trodden.

The Bloc Québecois mouths these values, but Quebecers know that it has no impact at all on government. It is, as well, in total disarray as the separtist parties in Quebec and Ottawa once again eat their young. Voting for the Bloc is a wasted vote, but it may be better (in the minds of some) than voting for a party that will do conscious harm.

The NDP shares certain Quebec social and international values, but its cultural level still reflects its former union base. It has no affinity for the French language or sympathy for provincial/municipal levels of government. It is simply not credible in Quebec.

The Liberals reflect Quebec social and international values. However, in addition to the continued smell of corruption, and the return to power of a Chretien-era minister (Dion), the Liberals have served as the "negro kings" for the Anglo-Canadian establishment - with a Francophone leader, but pursuing policies developed in central English Canada and perceived to be aimed at preventing the development of Quebec's social and economic well-being. Liberals are against not only separation, but any hint of enhanced Quebec power. For Liberals, it is through the Ottawa government that Quebecers will pursue their development - a thesis that is increasingly difficult to sell to a highly-educated Quebec population, humiliated by the cynically corrupt schemes of the Chretien era.

The Harper Conservatives reflect views on regional autonomy that are very attractive to Quebecers. However, on all other fronts, the Harper government is rejected. His linguistically inept ministers say the right things about Quebec autonomy etc, but when they need an interpreter to do so, it loses credibility. Worse, the Bible-belt social values of the Reform Party are non-starters with the atheistic, feminist, gay-loving Quebec elite. The show-stopper is Harper's foreign policy. Afghanistan is only the tip of the iceberg. Quebecers, generally friendly towards the US, detest the Bush administration and all it stands for. Harper's obvious admiration for it is unacceptable to Quebecers. Quebecers are humiliated and outraged by Harper's support of Israeli wars and his generally anti-Arab, anti-African, anti-Third-World stance. Similarly, Darfur, Haiti, the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire and, indeed, all other "do-good" missions, at the heart of internationalist Quebec values, get short shrift from Harper and his team of ridiculously unsophisticated ministers in the external area (McKay, O'Connor, and - most ridiculous of all - Stockwell Day).

Quebecers would like a government with Conservative values on the role of the provinces, the Quebec people, private-sector economic development, etc; NDP social values (welfare, gays, feminism, abortion, etc) and Liberal "do-good" foreign policy (at arm's length from US neo-cons). There is no political party that offers this combination. Therefore Quebecers must vote by elimination, de-selecting those that do the most harm. The perceived "threat" will shift from time to time depending on headlines and which politician was the last to put his foot in his mouth. It for this reason that Quebecers have supported the Bloc (that, at least, does no harm) and will in the next years seem very volatile in their swings of support. THe Canadian party that will capture their loyalty is the one that least threatens Quebec values in the areas of provincial development, social policy and foreign affairs.

Apologies to Nik and others on the board - I was wrong on polling method. Although two choices were asked for, only the top or first choice was used in the poll; the second choice used for statistical data garnered for future use, predicting trends, etc.

Will try to be more careful in the future.

How does one ask for a new poll amongst Canadians--or Ontarions inparticular?.
"Do you agree,disagree with the Regional Government Scheme?,why?,Explain."

Hello Nik,
What you are saying is true, but by next week, I believe that there will be a lot of
water under the bridge...It's getting so that we can no longer keep-up with our
disfunctional leaders, and political parties. I don't think that any of them know where
they are headed for, except a long summer recess. They are totally disfunctional,
and Parliament is becoming a sad joke! Why should we, the voters, have to put up
with this?
Cheers,

With the Green Party rising in support, isn't this just going to split the left even further, ensuring that the Conservatives stay in power?

It's no wonder the Green Party's support is growing -- Stephane Dion the party with his non-compete agreement!