New SES Research Poll - BQ supporters would Tilt to Tories and NDP

This is a very interesting poll and basically confirms my view that the Liberals are slipping down to third party territory. Personally I would not be surprised to see Layton become leader of the opposition sometime soon. If we are not voting on national issues then a traditional lef/right divide makes sense (and this basically excludes the Liberals who, in trying to be all things to all people, have ended up being nothing to anyone. In any case, Liberal party support has all but vanished amongst francophone Quebecers; -- well OK, they still have about ten percent support, mainly among unilingual senior citizens but also of course within the corrupt kleptocracy. But the Uncle Tom Quebec politicians whom so many other Canadians used to love voting for are becoming less and less successful at fooling so many people so much of the time, and they have certainly reached their nadir in Stephane Dion. His love-in with Madame May may well have marked his party's demise. If the Liberals are in league with the Greens then that means there are three left-wing parties and one right-wing. (Actually only one left-wing party and one alliance between a left-wing party and a whatever party, so might as well vote for a real left-wing party). One should also not forget that one of the reasons so many Quebecers supported Mulroney was out of a desire to see the party of Trudeau squashed, and this sentiment is quite strong again at the moment.

Anyway, the Bloc is of course not going to disappear completely although its fortunes may wax and wane as more or less viable alternatives are presented to the Quebec electorate. (The real test will come in the next referendum so it is quite safe to vote for a 'federalist' party in Ottawa or an 'autonomist' party in Quebec in the meantime). Duceppe will not move before the time is right, which means certainly not until after the upcoming federal election, and perhaps not until after the next Quebec election. He would dearly love to be leader of the opposition in Ottawa, but if the Conservatives win a majority and the Bloc remains in third (or fourth) place then he will move sooner rather than later. It is not yet clear whether the PQ convention will be brought forward to this year or next, nor is it clear that the ADQ surge has crested. We may have to wait to the following Quebec election to see a Dumont Duceppe showdown. A few things are certain however; -- the Bloc will lose a few seats this time round, the Tories will gain a few, and both the federal and Quebec Liberals are on their way to third party status ...

This highlights the symbiotic relationship between the BQ and the Liberals that has existed for many years. They have needed each other to feed off of. The polarizing affect of their two-sided debate has hampered Quebec for a long time now.

Both the PQ and the Liberals picked the wrong person to lead their respective parties; opinions would probably change quickly with new leadership. Several more years with Dion at the helm will probably reduce national support for the Liberals to the mid teens. I don't think Duceppe will make the jump to provincial politics because the BQ doesn’t have anyone to replace him.

I don't feel qualidied to make a credible comment on Quebec politics and even more so on such a hypothetical question.
From the little I do know, I feel that there is not much substantive support for the conservatives. After Dion gets adjusted to his new position I believe he will pick up support. I have never understood why the NDP doesn't have a higher profile there. NDP policies seem closer to what Quebec voters would support.

Nik has highlighted some very important trends that will have a huge impact on the political landscape across the country.

The Quebec election results had little to do with the personal popularity of any of the 3 Quebec leaders. In fact, if you look back about a year you'll see that the separatist PQ under Boisclair were comfortably heading towards a majority win. The results of the election in Quebec are directly related to the work Stephen Harper has been doing over the past 18 months.

Harper's achievement in Quebec over the last year has been to present Quebec - and the other provinces - with a renewed perspective on federal/provincial relations. Like it or not, the sovereignty option in Quebec no longer offers any significant advantage. Quebecers are now able to put that important debate behind them, and are now able to focus political attention to more mainstream issues, such as the economy and social justice.

In other words, Quebec elections are now more like elections in the rest of Canada. And isn't it about time?

Dear NJN.

I am confused.

People outside Quebec cannot vote for the Bloc.

You however have a sample ( N = 910 ) for Canada and a sample ( N = 230 ) for Quebec.

Why would people outside of Quebec be questioned on their voting intentions in regards to a party that they can't vote for? It seems non-nonsensical to me, unless you would be willing to explore the idea that certain people outside of Quebec vote differently depending on the popularity/presence of the BQ in politics ?

Cheers
-DanL

As you say Nik it is hypothetical but provides an interesting window on theQuebec electorate. It may not be that far fetched though. I get the sense that Quebec is changing and is no longer interested in the old fight. Rather Harper has given them a reason to believe that positive changes will be made to the federal/provincial relationship if Harper gets a majority. However, it will only happen with a majority because the Liberals would never let Harper make the changes that are needed to be made. The Liberals are centralizers and want control of the purse strings so they can continue to dictate which provinces get money and which programs they are prepared to support. Canadians are seeing this and Quebecers always more politically astute than the rest of Canada will help that transition take place at the time of the next federal election. The provincial election was just a foretaste of what is to come.

Asking the hypothetical about the Bloc is amusing. It's like asking the effect on society if chickens had lips. The Bloc isn't going anywhere any time soon and there will always be another "Duceppe" waiting in the wings. Quebec is not a province comme less autres and the Quebecois know having a third voice in Parliament serves them very well.

Very interesting, Nik: For me to comment on Quebec politics would be presumptious but the suggestion for the demise of the centre party and a future right / left split puts you in the BC scene over the last 35 years. BC has the prototype with NO centre party. Of interest is in British Columbia we have grown the largest swing voter centre imaginable as we vacillate between the two extremes of the NDP and, currently the right right wing Campbell "Liberals". But it is not only the the left / right split, but the emerging dominant urban right vs the minimally represented "country" left, the large business city interests vs the general worker country primary producer interest. It is not a good trend for governments to noticeably cater to their supporters' interests. When the provincial voters change political horses in BC, each party tries to demean the former government usually at a huge cost to the province (meaning the voter using the voter's money) and each starts a huge mega project----at least that is the current trend. The last NDP government had the fast ferry fiasco under a billion and the current Liberals---disguised Conservatives---have the super mountain highway to Whistler for the 2010 Olympics that will be over 2 billion if not 3 billion. Both the left and the right tend to be big spenders and the provincial debt goes up. In my opinion, the loss of the centre party would not contribute to a stable situation for the future. Governments should be seen to support majority interests sensibly and without favourites.

Nik:

An interesting poll indeed. However, I am not so sure as to how Quebecers as a whole would vote these days even if the Bloc were a mere shadow of its former self or, conversely, it was a strong fighting force. The province just seems to be in such a state of flux. It is simply just too volatile right now as the dust from provincial election has not had time to settle yet.

Adding to this uncertainly, and after a few recent polls showed the Conservatives getting stronger in Quebec, today's Decima poll comes along and shows the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec. Should we read that as a reaction in Quebec to the tragic and significant recent loss of life in Afghanistan? Regardless, the Decima poll casts a somewhat different interpretation to the voting intentions found by the SES survey of Bloc supporters in Quebec if the Bloc was no longer a player. That Liberal vote percentage unearthed by Decima has to come from somewhere.

As and aside, I really would be very interested to see what the national polling figures would be for the federal parties if the Alberta results were not included.

As for Duceppe's future plans, I would think the pressure on him to jump to his provincial cousins in considerable. However, while such a beau risque may indeed raise the PQ fortunes in that province, his leaving the federal scene may signal the beginning of a long cold journey into the night for the BQ - one they may not return from for some time.

Glenn

Hi Nik - Congratulations! Your're ahead of the times - noone else seems to have grasped the significance of remarkable political changes, realignments in Quebec.

Your main conclusion "They (Conservatives) would lead in Quebec with the support of 41% of voters followed by the NDP and the Liberals who would be statistically tied (23% and 21% respectively".

In my view the Conservatives are closer to the 40% mark in the ROC, too, than recent polls have shown. Maybe this is because Canadians just don't want an election this spring or early summer - when Mr Harper's figures get too high, there's a pulling back.

In the real world Quebeckers have shown their disenchantment with separatist parties with the rise of Mario Dumont. Not being a Quebecker, it's difficult to judge how much of this is due to the personal popularity of 'Mario' - and how much is due to the changing times.
Perhaps a combination of both. I personally don't fear Dumont's autonomism aspirations as long as Harper is in charge - would though with Dion, who would panic.

The more cynical of the electorate may see these figures as a result of Harper's budget, equalization formula, some say favoring Quebec and Ontario. I don't agree - the formula is based largely on population and it's a fact of life that Central Canada, in these two provinces, outweighs the rest of Canada in sheer people - as a result they need and deserve the lion's share of monies from the Federal government. This should, and has been, taken into account by Harper.

I see these figures as more of a result of Harper's 'Quebecois a nation within a United Canada' proclomation - these words were hardly noted at the time, other than being widely criticized as opening the door to Quebec seperatitsts - but have had the opposite effect, pulling the rug out from under the Bloq, and provincially the Parti Quebecois - and received by Quebeckers on the whole as an acknowledgment of what is only fact, denied them so long.

The face of political life, forces in Canada is changing - generational - yet also in a philosophical way. Perhaps the spread of discussion boards such as yours has allowed Canadians to chrystalize their own thinking.

Cheers!

Hi Nik,
I haven't read other comments or support material, and go by my own feelings...but will
do so afterwards. My own sense of what is happening.
"bloc" has no business being in Ottawa, and I think that gilles duceppe wants to go into
private business? I "believe" that we have (12) small parties in Qc - one who is the
"communist" party??? Who needs that...Then there is the Quebec Independent party (or
something), and heard that perhaps pq could join this party and find a new name???
I know that S.Harper would want to unite Canada, once and for all, but has always
said that he would not want to re-open the Constitution...The adq (dumont) has talked
about it, but since, read that the prov. Liberal party is not interested in doing so...
Stephane Dion, who is an expert, is also "not" interested in re-opening the Constitution,
since hwe have many other important priorities, and Dumont, being a nationalist, who hasen't yet
defined what he means by this, would want to negotiate, but for Qc only. This is the catch!!!
So beware of the adq. I still do not believe that facing an election that votes for the adq
represents more votes for the Conservatives. I quote Albert Einstein, who said that
"nationalism is a desease; the measles of the people"!!! Stephane Dion is gaining
momentum, and as Jean Chretien said, it was also predicted that he would not win, but
when he told the voters, if you don't want to discuss the Constitution, vote for me, and
he did win. I still maintain that we shall all be surprised at the results of the next election,
if M. Dion has time to to get himself known, people in general will start appreciating his
views and his vision. At least, he has proven that he would work for the whole of Canada,
and all Canadians.

As we all know in the world of polling, it would be very unlikely that the seperatists would ever allow a party to control the fate of the Quebecors that want to leave Canada. What the polls say and what happens in Quebec are two different animals. May the best animal win.

This poll and all the rest taken since PM Harper obtained a minority government contiune to lead observers to the same stubbornly static conclusion; that is if an election were held today the result would argueably be either a conservative or Liberal minority government!

PM Harper has had more than a year to present to the the Canadian electorate an alternative vision. He has had a year to demonstrate by his actions that he has the right vision for Canadians now.

What we have been treated to in observing PM Harper's actions is shameless tactical political manouvering instead of a solid vision that would lead Canadians to overwhelming conclude that PM Harper's "vision" is the right "vision". PM Harper's election platform was simply a tool to attract votes - something that he has flip flopped on and something that was and is 100% disposable. Kyoto - Rona Ambrose - the environment -nothing more than issues to be managed. The real agenda is really a secret.

It seems that PM Harper pictures himself as some kind of latter day "Captain James T. Kirk" of the Federation starship "Tory" and he sees himself as charged with following the "Prime Directive" in order to save Canada. He will not admit to what HIS "Prime Directive" is but we all know what that will be if he gets a majority.

PM Harper as a majority Prime Minister will systematically dimantel every single progressive LIBERAL initiative that was ever undertaken. He will shameless model his legislation on the now totally discredited legislative programs of current and recent U.S. Republican administrations. Three stikes and your out, lock up criminals and throw away the key, keep our atmosphere safe as a place to dump pollution, follow the US lead on foreign policy because an independent Canada is too risky, give the provinces whatever they ask for and make the federal government nothing more than a head waiter at a provincial buffet. Above all exempt Alberta from anything it doesn't like, like exempting pick up trucks from proposed pollution controls to name just one example.

Most Canadians know that in a majority government a then PM Harper will implement legislative changes that will radically change our country. He is NOT willing to "boldly go" and lay out those intended legislative changes out for Canadian voters NOW because if he did he would soon find himself as leader of the opposition again - and the Liberals back with a majority. That is PM Harper's big connundrum......

In the vaccuum that PM Harper's lack of ideology honestly creates he is left with the tactical villification of Liberals. He refuses to address issues with substantives responses. That is why Canadians are not yet willing to trust him with a majority government. Compounding the electorates lack of trust of PM Harper's plans are new revelations. I wonder if a future "former PM" Harper will still be getting his hair done by hired staff at tax payer expense by his "follow me everywhere" hair dresser and clothing consultant. Is PM Harper reviewing old Kenedy/Nixon debate tapes in feeling a need to "look his best"? What about devoting time to substantive matters?

Mr. Dion - keep up your good work - do not be afraid to challenge Quebec head on where it needs to be challenged. Canada needs your ideas on Quebec like the "Clarity Act" and your DISTINCTLY HONEST ideas on the environment. Do not be fooled with Quebec's/Mr. Dumont's dishonest suggestion that he would sign the constitution as a future Premier. Mr. Dumont sees weakness in PM Harper and, in suggestiong that he is willing to sign the Canadian constitution, would only do so if it would advance Quebec seperatism or autonomisim or whatever code words Qubebec seperatist use these days.

Say what you will about lagging Liberal polls but with the polls not rewarding PM Harper better than they have - it is PM Harper who has the bigger polling problem.

Hello Nik :
Where most pollsters ask, Thinking about a federal election, which party would you be most inclined to vote for at this time?, Dan asked, How many seats do you think each party should ideally have in Parliament?

Right now the answer to the traditional question will be something like, Liberals 31%, Conservatives 30%, NDP, 18%, Greens 13%, Bloc 8%. But when the seat allocation question is asked, here are the results:

Conservative 97 ,seats 32 % of the vote
Liberal 81 ,seats 26 % of the vote
NDP 49 , seats 16 % of the vote
Green 42 , seats 14 % of the vote
Bloc 39 ,seats 13 % of the vote

Baril says the difference here in polling methodology is that his company, Core Strategies, “specializes in figuring out what Canadians really want, not what politicians want Canadians to want.” If this poll of 1,000 people has validity, and it would appear to be covered with it, then what we have is a national cry for help – for electoral reform, for an end to the way Ottawa now operates, for a far more consensual governance.

In Baril’s House of Commons, neither Cons nor Grits could govern absolutely with the support of only one other party. In fact, to get anything passed, members of at least three parties would have to lend their backing. This suggests the current practice of party block voting could lead to frequent Parliamentary paralysis. It also suggests voters are looking to MPs to be more free agents than trained seals, and it certainly suggests Canadians are looking for leaders who know how to compromise, instead of being blinkered macho ideologues.

It ends the bizarre electoral realities of today – where 600,000 people voted Green, yet no MPs were elected, and where Stephen Harper’s Conservatives formed a government elected by just 23% of eligible voters.

Some will say this is a recipe for Parliamentary disaster. A prime minister would have to become so through diplomacy, bridge-building and coalition. Policies would need consensus to become law. MPs would have to stray from narrow party platforms, forced to make voting decisions based on the greatest good for the greatest number. Conflict would be counter-productive. Question Period might even yield some answers.

Hey, maybe elections would be about ideas instead of leaders. Maybe voters would concentrate on picking the best citizen-politicians to be MPs, instead of voting for the party with the coolest TV ads. Maybe we would end up respecting those people we send to Ottawa more than the guys who sell used cars (sorry, car guys).

Of course, this will not be the result of the next election. Our first-past-the-post system, combined with the growing trend towards lock-step party discipline, the steady neutering of MPs, and the Presidential, leader-centric style of government which has evolved will likely see the next Parliament looking eerily like the current one, whoever forms government.

From Garth Turner's Blog

What do you think of the methodology and result Nik .

Attila