With the drop in PQ support in Quebec and the poor performance of PQ Leader Andre Boisclair we may be seeing changes in Quebec. What would happen to BQ support if, for example, Gilles Duceppe left the party to seek the PQ leadership? What would happen if BQ support dropped significantly?
To that end, SES added an extra question to its latest omnibus survey. Quite simply, we asked committed BQ supporters who they would vote for federally if the BQ did not exist.
As you know, this is a hypothetical situation but it does instruct observers as to the potential future movement of voters.
In a nutshell, the absence of the BQ would likely move the Conservatives into majority territory. They would lead in Quebec with the support of 41% of voters followed by the NDP and the Liberals who would be statistically tied (23% and 21% respectively). BQ committed voters would move to the Conservatives (who pick up 13 points), the NDP (who pick up 10 points), the Green Party (who pick up 8 points) and the Liberals (who pick up 3 points). Factoring the margin of accuracy for the sub sample the discernable movement is to the Tories and the NDP and to a lesser extent to the Greens.
My read is that the departure of Gilles Duceppe to the Quebec political scene and any weakening of the BQ would result in a major political realignment. The old federal battle lines between sovereigntists and federalists in Quebec would be weakened.
Detailed below is a glimmer of a potential new political reality.
[Bloc voters only] If the Bloc Quebecois did not exist federally and you had to choose between the federal [rotate] Liberals, Conservatives, NDP or Green Party, which federal party would you vote for? Values in parenthesis represent the change in support if the BQ did not exist. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Check out the detailed stats in the Support Materials box on the right.
Canada without Bloc (N=910, Margin of Accuracy +/-3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 39% (+3)
- Liberal 34% (+1)
- NDP 19% (+3)
- Green Party 8% (+2)
- None 1% (0)
Quebec without Bloc (N=230, Margin of Accuracy +/- 6.5%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 41% (+13)
- Liberal 21% (+3)
- NDP 23% (+10)
- Green Party 12% (+8)
- None 4% (0)
What do you think? Will Duceppe jump to the provincial scene? What is the future of the BQ?
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