Federal Grits Drop in Quebec – Tories Still Short of Majority

" the Tories still short of majority"
What a happy thought to start off Easter Sunday morning. A Conservative majority is the last thing we want. As long as they are in a minority they can't do too much damage.
However I think that Harper is too impatient to hold back. He can smell victory and so I think he will go ahead and call and election as soon as he can find a mechanism to blame it on someone else. I'm sure he'll come up with something.
If he waits too long and Dion gets comfortable in his new shoes, you will see the Liberal's fortune rise, especially in Quebec.

I'm wondering about possible election-sparking issues. I would love to see a survey on C-30 related issues. While it might be because I am an environmentalist, I can't see how making C-30 a confidence vote can help the Conservatives.

The Hill Times lists crime related bills (reverse-onus, etc) as possibly sparking an election, but I can't see that as being controversial enough, so I'm stuck thinking there won't be an election or it will be on the science of climate change and/or the economics of the proposed solutions.

This is a series of poll questions. I suspect the Conservatives have much better access to polling than I do, so I must be missing something and give Canadians more credit than they deserve?

Where do Canadians stand on things such as carbon caps, the so-called carbon budget, and carbon trading: both within Canada (regional to allow provinces to compete, and polluting provinces to subsidize cleaner provinces) and worldwide (the environment is worldwide, and Canada remains irrelevant in solving the problem if we only navel-gaze within our boarders).

I promise to get rid of Stephen Harper. Visit www.judicare.ca

[updated Sun Apr 08 11:00:53 EDT 2007]

Nice to see a poll that relates to pre-budget and post-budget periods with sufficient time lapse to neutralize the impact of the media coverage bounce. Also nice to see nothing much has changed since Jan 2006 election results with respect to the relative position of the parties. Decima is a bit different and the Cons love to jump on one result and call it a trend. All other recent polling shows about the same-old-same-old results as in Jan 2006 and this SES poll.

At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.

The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.

The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.

The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.

Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.

In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.

One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.

An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.

We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?

These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.

[updated Sun Apr 08 12:35:11 EDT 2007]

This is Harper's window to drop the writ. The polls remain volatile and will be a hard election for all concerned. I am confident that once the election starts, Dion will do well in Quebec. He understands the language and the people. A drop for anything liberal was to be expected after Charest mismanaged the big bribe and basically lost Quebec's confidence. The real question will be Ontario and events during the election itself. A big setback in the war or an environmental disaster could take over the campaign. No wonder that even after all these ads and money given to Quebec, the tories are afraid to go to the people.

To your question - I think it should more properly be - if you're the opposition parties - do you call an election or not?

Mr Harper will not call an election unless he cannot govern - there is patently no reason to do so, and he has stated many times that he has no wish to call an election.

The next election, if it's an early one, will be called by the opposition parties in parliament if they vote down a confidence bill. They should know, or soon will, where Mr Harper will draw the line - what so many seem to forget, he is the Prime Minister and has every right to make Prime Ministerial decisions.

I look forward with interest to Mr Harper's environmental policies announcement slated for soon after parliament resumes.

Mr Harper's present position with the Canadian electorate is strong - particularly if you contrast it with that of the Liberal and NDP parties. He has gained widespread trust and respect across the country. Like many Canadians, I don't want a spring or early election, but if one is forced upon us by the short-sighted stubborness of opposition parties I'll be glad to join in the vote that will elect him to a strong majority government.

I believe Harper is conceited enough regarding his own abilities to believe he is the natural to be Captain Canada. He holds tight reigns on his party machinery, on his cabinet and on his caucus. I do not believe he sees his "about face" on numerous issues in the last number of months as contradictory in the least but rather just good tactics. I bet he feels that his brand is the best brand of political leadership for the land and the electorate will POSITIVELY support him. But, isn't that one of the contradictions of our system? Do we more usually vote FOR a party or vote AGAINST a party? Did voting FOR the Conservatives bring Harper to power or voting AGAINST the Liberals bring Harper to power? I believe it was more commonly the latter.

Harper has been in office long enough for the electorate to get the measure of the man and, it seems to me, the electorate is very uncertain as reflected by poll results. Harper's vote buying with Charet really did not pay off for him. But, I am equally sure the electorate looks at the Liberals, who still seem to be having head office troubles, and shake their heads. Harper sees this as a positive for him, and he is right, so it goes into the pot for the election gamble.

A two party system is ideal but we have had three federally plus the Bloc whose fortunes appear to be on the wane, for the moment. Now four federally with the Greens under Elizabeth May and they appear to be a growing force. The Greens and the NDP are generally in the same voter turf area thus decimating each other with no signs of amalgamation.. The Greens have also refused the Liberal overtures at this point in time. Harper must see this as a plus and he is right so that goes into the pot for the election gamble. The critical question for Harper will be trying to determine if Mario Dumont's votes provincially will come to the Conservatives federally as a majority government depends upon increased Quebec support. Somehow I think the Quebecois are too smart to do that in spite of the polls----but you never know.

If Harper can engineer his government's defeat and show righteous indignation, then I am sure we are in for an election by the Fall.

[updated Sun Apr 08 21:22:25 EDT 2007]

Hello Nik,
I say that S.Harper will - it's been his objective since he came into office...He souldn't,
and I wouldn't attempt it if I were him...This will not be good for the Country. Voters
are pessimistic, fed-up with the uncertainties, and another election for a minority gov't
is going to affect the issues of this Country. Harper is not only in election mode, but
not onto Kyoto targets - and this is where we shall see if our population is really adamant
about fighting global warming changes or not willing to step-up to the plate in order to do
so - and the sponsorship scandal, if an election is called when the House re-opens, will
be shown as Harper taking all demeaning advantages of all situations...He still has to
answer for the RCMP ongoing scandal, as well, and his re-inventing old Liberal policies
with old monies. There are a lot of estranged groups that do not escond to his political
ideologies, and it would be reckless of him to call an election!
blossom

Liberals gaining support in Ontario, what a surprise, I'm afraid the Liberals could run Stephan Dion's dog Kyoto and get 40% of the vote. Blind loyalty, just when it was getting great to be a Canadian again.

I wonder sometimes when folks from Ontario are slamming Albertans as extremists for voting in block for Conservatives, do they consider the fact that they are equally extreme in thier support for the Liberals? I mean the last time I looked there were no Conservatives or friends of the Conservative party being investigated. Its getting silly now!!

Give Harper and the Conservatives a chance and Please, Please stop buying the bogey man theory that the Liberals have carefully crafted for your edification.

[updated Mon Apr 09 17:51:50 EDT 2007]

I don't believe the Prime Minister will directly call an election. I think it quite likely he will do what Government ought to do - govern - which will drive the Opposition up the wall, as Liberals believe as an article of faith that Harper is an interloper, the NDP disagrees as a matter of policy and the Bloc sees only that some of what the Government introduces isn't about largesse for Quebec. As a result, some bill will ultimately launch a firestorm, become a confidence motion, and we will find ourselves catapulted into an election, with the other parties claiming that the Conservatives forced an election by not abandoning their program, and the Conservatives noting that the Opposition forced an election. A pity that Canada's media will no doubt report the first of these two.

So, no, Harper won't call one yet. Solid numbers in Ontario having moved past the Liberals by 2-3 points will be the key. Frankly, no other region matters for a majority - and there is little appetite to coming back with yet another minority. (Remember, in many ways, this minority is more workable than the one Martin had 2004-06. A few extra seats would actually be a liability compared to today's count, or 155+.) The other thing of interest will be the detailed breakdown, seat by seat, in Quebec - since victory there depends on piling up the votes in specific seats rather than coming in second across the province. Are Liberal seats (even a few) in danger of toppling to the Conservatives in 514 Montreal? Are suburban seats in 450 and around Quebec City heading their way? As with the 905, "now you're talking" - but if those kinds of moves are not happening, there's no reason to rush to the polls. (Sorry, Greater Vancouver, but a few extra seats in 604 aren't really meaningful in this decision.)

The continued strength of the Conservative fund-raising machine means that the party can threaten election readiness for a long, long time without hurting their ability to actually campaign when the time does come. This forces their opponents to expend resources they really don't have to counter these moves - something that will hurt in the air war of the last 21 days of the campaign, when it arrives. It also gives them the opportunity to establish certain messages, creating a slow influence on public opinion. So the appearance of an imminent call will remain - and no doubt Stéphane Dion will continue to complain that it's "all so unfair". Too bad, so sad - one of the great lessons of Opposition is that "it's not about you" and that you get to do a lot of responding rather than leading.

When? Well, despite not having proclaimed the bill yet, why not 2009 as planned for the first fixed election date? Although I expect one of the Opposition parties will feel that it's to their advantage to go earlier - especially if there is early traction on the revised environmental strategy. But, for the Conservatives, staying in power and continuing to govern gives them all the options - and fits the mood of the electorate perfectly. For that reason, they won't engineer (in the sense of going in wanting to lose a confidence vote) a fall, but they probably will face one later this year.

Never forget all the Liberals who would like Dion to campaign - and lose - so that he can be replaced. All is *not* well in Grit land...

Cheers, Bruce

Another good batch of folks elected to a den of centralist ottawashing. The last budjet is a blatant example of how the system cannot change. The provinces will continue as neutered annuitants to a centralist philosophy. We sent the best we could to change that senario, only to witness that the ROC has huge dependancy on central coffers and the provinces do not have the spine for effectual change that would strengthen their position within their specific jurisdictions. Those that want less Ottawa in provincial affairs have yet seen any difference in the way Ottawa does business. The separatist element within this country will continue to grow at the expense of the Canadian Conservative Party of Canada. Perhaps that needs to happen. I doubt that the provinces woul have come together to form Canada under the current criteria. That begs the real Question...'Why then, should we continue this charade?'

Seems quite different than another poll out very recently which showed the LIberals and Conservatives tied at 32%. Why the large variation?

[updated Tue Nov 13 18:59:40 EST 2007]