New SES Research Poll - Likely Impact of Federal Budget on Harper and Charest in Quebec
As you know, many of the main details of the federal budget have already been in the public domain. Last Wednesday and Thursday, SES surveyed 500 Quebecers on the image impact on Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Premier Jean Charest. Please view the detailed stat sheet in the Support Materials box on the right.
The polling shows that Harper’s open federalism, new money for Quebec’s environmental plan and expected new equalization transfers for the province do not have a major positive impact on his image among Quebec voters. Indeed, Quebecers are more likely to look less favourably on the Prime Minister. The research does show that for Charest the budget will be good at firming up individuals who most closely personally associate with the Liberal Party of Quebec.
My sense is that for the federal Conservatives the budget strategy has a number of layers. First, the timing and likely budget configuration increases the likelihood for it to pass and thus further sustains the Harper government. Second, the federal Conservatives can wait and see what bump..if any…materializes from the budget.
For Charest, beyond Liberals, the traction of the budget and open federalism at this time is weak. This could be a result of the view that a number of Quebecers see the budget as a potential federal intervention in provincial politics.
What do you think?
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