SES Quebec Provincial Election Poll in Sunday's La Presse

Fascinating...will you do another poll with a larger sample 48 hr after the Harper Budget? Has Harper got any real traction other than the fiscal imbalance mythological angst in Que?

March 20 -26 could change Canada...for the better or the worse...but it will change. A bad budget and a bad Que electon result - instability and volatility for sure - and that is the good outcome in my mind.

As an Albertan I can tell you I have a large dollop of pure skepticism over Harper and am delighted to see the fluidity in Que consciousness.

Undecided in your poll is the key and a big factor - volitility Rulz!. Call the manicurists because everyone willl be biting their nails next week. Hope for a mediocre Liberal Minority and a puffed up ADQ and the chagrined PQ but all of them too close to each other for any of them to even feign comfort. Another Que election within 18 months is in the offing.

Hi Nik, It appears from your poll that the Liberals are heading for another majority government, at the least a strong minority. Mario Dumont in second place even without strong candidates, perhaps on views and leadership qualities - which is interesting.
Mr Boisclair is trailing to such an extent that one wonders if it is more than just a rejection of himself as a leader of a party - perhaps Quebeckers are tired of the continuing struggle with the rest of Canada over nationhood.
Younger Quebeckers are voting now - I think many see the future in clearer terms - with Quebec as a respected part of Canada, rather than as a separate small nation stranded in the midst of Canada and the US.
I'm encouraged to see the emergence of the Action Democratique as a political force in Quebec. As essentially a Conservative party with strong Quebec foundations, it is a healthy sign of the changing times. I think an affirmation of Mr Harper's motion "that the Quebecois form a nation within a united Canada".

Your data is interesting, but how can we make an opinion about the numbers without you providing crosstables for francophones and non-francophone voters? In any Quebec political poll, the language variable is of paramount importance as past election and referendum results and associated research litteratyre shows. This is a much more valid predictor of voting intentions than age or gender.

The results of your poll are very interesting. However, I cannot believe that Quebecers would vote for Mario Dumont rather than Jean Charest. Charest is a proven leader with a proven team. While his performance may not have been the greatest he is still better able to lead than Dumont. Dumont has a weak team and I don't believe he is in any position to govern. Handing him the balance of power will ensure that politics in Quebec are polarized like they are in Ottawa these days. As for Boisclair all I can say is I am happy that he is not polling well among all segments of the population. We have many issues to deal with in Canada, including Quebec, and we do not need to be sidetracked by the issue of a referendum. Quebecers are smart people. Harper will deliver the goods on Monday and they should vote for Charest. Dumont should become the official opposition and the PQ should be irrelevant in Quebec politics. That will do two things. Allow Quebec to get on with improving its economy and weaken the hold of the Bloc in Ottawa. That would be good for Canada as well.

Quebecers are much too sophisticated to be bought off by an Ottawa government(?) .
It will not matter one iota how much Flaherty puts in the budget as it is an ongoing problem .
Only if they commit to 2.5, billion per year-into perpetuity -in extra payments will they be satisfied .
Charest is on his own .
Canadians now know that the last budget had very little meaningful savings for average Canadians .
Smoke and mirrors just won't do it this time .

Hello Nik,
I do agree with most of what you are saying, but only to a certain extent. Things are changing.
You have the French influence media, against an all too quiet English media in this
province....
I am happy to say that I returned to vote for Premier Charest today, and I found him to
be more eloquent late this eve, and I think that he kept his strength for this last week,
and after tomorrow's budget. I believe that I see eye to eye with him, and the perception
that he gave at being a bit faded-out with his opponents, might have been part of his
strategy? Let boisclair and dumont fight it out...They have both maimed themselves
seriously, in my eyes this week, with outlandish promises that a lot of his followers
find incredibly impossible, and boisclair is like a dictator; one who can not help
incriminate himself with abuse against minorities, such as dumont's fired candidates had also made. They are both of separatist stock, and I don't see how the voters could be
that blind, especially when dumont's promises are not credible, and would land this
province in an economical abyss!
Who do you want to vote for: the guy whose going to put you in a financial whole, has
no party, no budget, no figures, but throws them around like it was part of the Harper
campaign? Or a guy who no one respects, is not seen as a leader, and who, even in a
minority gov't, one month after winning a minority gov't. would ask for a referandum?
Qc's debt is $125million, which Jean Charest's estimates would be paid-off in 2025...
Last summer, after 30 yrs, we paid-off the debt of the Stadium roof!!! The smokers paid
that one!!! Mr. Harper may think that mario dumont might help him for his on-coming
election, but when the quebecers see mario dumont for what he is (a demaguoge with
nothing), Mr. Harper will not score a victory out here, but a rather self-defeated gov't.
I have a feeling that voters are going to come to their senses, when they add the figures,
and are going to play much safer than expected with the Liberals. Nik, do not discount
the English and ethnic minorities, and Leger pollster, just this eve, gave M. Charest
a better picture for the coming election.
bloss

Nik,
Tomorrow's budget is not just about keeping Qc any more...S. Harper is really in
election mode, and even if Jean Charest wins, as it had been perceived to give more
votes for Harper, I don't believe that even this will work out for him.
The medias are creating so much action, that they are changing people's perception
daily...just like the polls.
Tonight, I sense that the budget will be good for most provinces, and that boisclair,
and dumont are going to find objections (like not enough, and claim victory for it at the
end of the day), but if you ask me, these last two weeks, things have been so out of control,
and the voters will come to their senses, at the end of the week. dumont and boisclair
still have time to hang themselves this week, and Harper is really going at it so fast with his , election style fund campaign, that he just might trip himself up.
Elizabeth May has finally decided to give credence to S. Dion, on the Environment, and
soon, the expense of the war in Afghanistan, is going to be a political election issue. If
Ms May wins against Peter MacKay, in N.S., we already know the outcome of the next
Federal election!
I predict at worse, perhaps small majority gov't for J. Charest, but the separatists are fed-up
with the pq, and who can believe in mario dumont - no party, (3) discredited candidates,
just last week, and with the way things are going in the world right now, anything but
a J. Charest gov't would be ludicrous...Voters are starting to look ahead, and not just for
the moment!
bloss
Suddenly, I find the whole situation so outlandish, and it's gotten so low,. that the only way
back - is upwards!

Does not matter to me, but it will matter to me, if Quebec receives more than its fair share than any other Provinces, if it does then PSAC members from Quebec must be fired. Does not matter what department or agency, if Quebec receives more they are going to hear about it. PSAC members be on your toes, you day is coming soon.

Sorry to bother you guys,

but most of you seem to be disconnected with quebec's politics.
In vote numbers, PLQ should end just above PQ (typically 32% and 31%)
both in front of ADQ (27%). But in seats, it is another story:
PQ will get a minority government, just under a majority scenario.
PQ around 62 seats, PLQ around 30 seats and ADQ around 32, QS 1 (Khadir in Mercier).

All thanks to FPTP wonderfull electoral system!

For references,
I am CDCM president.

Hi Nik,
If the Liberals and adq can work together??? should not be too many waves.
But don't kid yourself, that dumont, is an autonomist/nationalist, which is not far
from sovereignist! It's all camouflage for now, and getting his foot in the door.
He said that he needed nine months to prove himself, and this is when we shall
know how his supporters react.
As for the Federal scene, I would have thought that S.Harper would avoid self-
defeating himself with another election, but I predict that by next week, he shall
announce a Federal election! Time is not on his side...However, when he rebukes
the Amendments to his Clean Air Act, he is going to go to the Governor Gen.
saying that he can't work in a minority gov't, and will call an election. He's on the
wrong side of the Kyoto protocol, and has no intention of reaching those targets!
By next week, we shall be looking at a Spring election, and the reason that I am so
convinced, was listening to his strategists, and Ministers who still deny that they can't -
truth is, all three parties are saying that it is possible, especially Liz May.
Let's not kid ourselves that we are not all as green as we say we are, but the pressure
will come from around the world for us to deal with it.
PS: As for dumont, he has said that for the next five years he shall work with open
Federalism. However, there was an interesting thought put out this eve, that we should
have a final third referandum, with an expected "NO" as the outcome, and that this
would finally end this madness.
My prediction, is that we are in for a Spring election, which has nothing to do with Qc., but
on the Environment, and this Spring, with another 'minority gov't. for S. Harper!
That should keep you busy Nik,
Cheers,
bloss