Influence of Quebec Provincial Election

I know nothing about Quebec politics, but I agree somewhat with you Nik, I still have a problem with all this money going into Quebec again. On CBC Newsworld George cannot his name point out the recent poll. Dion only 18 percent, that is less than the poll with Liberals with no leader at all. I do not think Harper should be in hurry to call an Election, he has no competition for the position of Prime Minister. Dion is a lameduck Party Leader, Liberals blew it with a Leader from Quebec again, they will never learn a thing, 13 years,13 years, 13 years, 13 years.

Hello Nik,
Obviously S. Harper is helping Jean Charest, thank whoever, because primarily he wants
this party to win against the separatist parties, which is adamant in keeping Canada
united, and this we know PM Harper is not going to renege on. It's also cheaper to help
Qc., rather than have the separatists elected, and have to be in referandum mode, once again. Jean Charest helped the
Conservatives to get 10 seats in the last Federal election. It is somewhat addressing the
fiscal imbalance that the 'bloc' is always asking for, although now, Mario Dumont (ADQ)
is saying that this is only part of the monies ($2b) promised, and would like to see it
doubled!!! However, it is not for them to complain, and they have no option but to accept this budget for Qc, since they would look pretty foolish, and because Premier Charest is ascerting
to Quebeckers that Federalism works.
Where the trouble lies, in my mind, is when our Premier starts with the Quebec/nation
which is once again re-opening a pandora's box! By this recognition, Qc will not get more
provincial powers, and I do not like this strategy. This tactic could really back-fire on the
Premier, and the PM.
It seems to me that "the best laid plans of mice and men", etc...one should know when to
draw the line! In this Province the word "nation" can lead to a lot of mis-interpratations, and
they should stick to the plan. MONEY.
If the Liberals win, it will not change Mr. Harper's numbers that much in a Federal election,
because Mr. Harper has lost a lot of credibility in this province since the last election.
I think that the Liberals and the Fed. Conservatives should play it cool!
I do not even want to consider if the Liberals should loose - We, Canadians, would all be
the loosers!!!
Cheers Nik,
blos

I don't have much faith in polls predicting political results and I don't have faith in any ability I may have seeing into the future either. However just to play the game I'll suggest that the Quebec election will play a big roll in when the next Federal election will be. If the Liberals win big or the PQ lose badly I think Harper will also call an election. It means he will see that result as an indication that he may pick many more than 10 seats, with the help of Charest. He would bring down a budget favourable to Quebec. Then he would put his whole effort in winning Ontario (especially rural) His budget would be one that would not be acceptable to the other parties so that they would be likely to vote against it and then he could blame them for calling the election.
If an unfavourable occurance happened in Quebec then Harper would have a different budget and would delay having an election until he found a more favourable time.
Even in the first scenario he may not win. I feel Quebec voters are more politically astute than the rest of Canada, generally speaking. They resist being bought and they see through smoke and mirors.

The Quebec election will definitely have an effect on the timing of the Fed election. As stated here by others, a big Charest win will vindicate Harper on his move to devolve Fed/Prov powers back closer to BNA 1867. It will also demoralize many of the seperatists who work for both the PQ & BQ.

On another front, there is a perfect storm brewing which PM Harper cannot ignore. Even though different polls (inluding ones from here) indicate greatly different levels of support for Harper and the Tories, one thing is clear; they are all trending upwards.... Add to that, the humiliating leadership #'s for Dion in a recent poll, and the fact that those #'s do not reflect the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the recently released French language versions in Quebec; the ads maybe just as effective (or more so) than the English versions and push Dions' leadership #'s even lower. Add to this the Kyoto private members bill, which may just backfire on the opposition. This will allow Harper to move away from his own party's position on Kyoto with the excuse that the House has expressed their will which he cannot ignore. This gives him the opportunity to make a realistic stab at Kyoto; one which will sit well with voters.

Harper will go into the next election with good leadership #'s, looking Prime Ministerial with the voters; a defensible track record, a reasonable record on climate change, and polling #'s marching upwards..... Watch out, the majority Harper seeks is becoming more and more in reach with each passing week and the opposition parties are doing everything they can to help him out...........

Hello Nik,
The news out here in Qc is that we are going into election battle mode...
Andre Boisclair, parti quebecois is calling Premier Jean Charest and idiot, and a lyer!!!
This is unprecented. So is today's display in the House with Stephen Harper maliciously
maligning Min. McBayne(?), was a cheap blow on unsubstantiated allegationtions.
This is beneath the dignity of his office. I hope the Minister takes legal action against the PM, who is totally out of line! Enough is enough!!!
Going back to Andre Boisclair, our Premier responded that he is immature, and has no
substance...except with cochane. M. Landry, former leader party has discredited M. Boisclair
also.
Mario Dumont,
(ADQ), who was also a separatist, is now snuggling-up to S. Harper, and trying to make
us believe that he is all Federalism.
S.Harper has attacked another member
of the Liberal party, in a way that is beneath the dignity of his office. Every day, S.Harper
is doing all that he can to push me away from his dictatorial party, and by his own demeening actions, against others, and
is convincing me that he lacks, even the basic common sense to analyse the repurcussions
of his words. "Civility, respect" is what Canada, and Canadians are about. It has always
been our national culture to be out-going to all. This is no longer debate, but ugly insinuations
allegations, without any foundation.
S. Dion hasen't had a chance since he has been in the Opposition, and S. Harper has seen
to that. He is bullying Canadians into trying to smear an honest man, who hasen't yet been
given the chance to show his Leadership qualities, and unfortunately, as well S. Harper knows,
yes, the Liberal party was very devided, and Mr. Harper chose to exploit this fact.
Re: the 'sunset clause" in theAnti- Terrorist Act, we should all be advised that the reason
M. Dion is against renewing them, is that those were drastic measures which the Liberals,
at the time had to take, but since we already have all of the clauses needed, that this is
another measure by which anyone could be apprehended only on suspicion (I badly worded
this), and that we, as Canadian citizens, could risk losing some of our already guaranteed
personal rights in the Charter of Freedoms. The American's have been fighting 'bush'
for his intrusion on private citizens' rights, with his wire-tapping laws,
without burden of proof. This is what Stephane Dion is worried about, and he is right. We
haven't been attacked, and it seems that Canada is doing a great job at protecting us, as
we saw last year.
S. Harper not only holds his caucaus members on a leash, but he also wants us
all to be! Isen't that frightening, after what we have seen happen in the good old US of A?The only scenario, is if the voters re-instate Jean Charest, and if he wins, I can
assure you that the voters in this province will vote for Stephane Dion's Liberals...When
"referandum" in this province is mentioned just before our elections, it goes without saying
that, the Liberals are back in power. After seeing S. Harper's personal attacks, on a Minister who wasen't
even involved in the India Air Enquiry; it would
be only ethical that he declares an apology to Min. McBayne, personally, and in the House
tomorrow. Can we really hope for such a gesture from S. Harper??? NO!
It would be important to note that when Jean Charest was elected, the coffers had been
depleted by the separatists.

I still say, that S. Harper is self-defeating, and he is tripping himself daily, and showing
that bulley-power is not a quality, but a huge recurring problem , an impediment, and that seems to be his only
political substance; belittling others - this is not Prime-minesterial. Who would vote
for a bulley? Where is the dignity?
The voters are smarter than that, and soon the polls will change, but it is the voters who
will make them change.
Cheers,
blos

Hi Nik,
Of course, if the Provincial Liberals win; S. Harper, unless he has put himself in deep trouble,
with all of the opposition parties, may want to declare an election, since he will equate that
his budget has made him score points...NO - not in this province! The only reason that S.Harper
got so many votes from Qc, in the last election, is because of a non-confidence vote, and
out here we did not want elections, but were forced to go to the polls, and many wanted
to make a point, but nobody knew who Harper really was - this time, we all know him!
Although S.Harper is given the reputation of being a good strategist, I am no longer so
sure of this....Qc is a very tricky province, and he knows, but should have remembered this
on time! Instead lately he is going too far off the track, and confusing real politics, with his
own political games. He is starting to believe in himself, and this can be very self-defeating.
Cheers,
blos

There is the potential that Quebec voters could defeat the PQ but then support the BQ as they believe that the threat of separation results in more federal cash. If the "project" looks to weak, then less federal cash flows in and the BQ can't actually initiate a referendum anyway.

I expect a dirty campaign because Boisclair carries a lot of baggage being a former cocaine snorting cabinet minister. By the time this election is over the Bloc will have a difficult time holding on to the support it once enjoyed over the other parties.

Quebec Politics, Canada does need the son of Mr Finger, Justing Trudeau being in Politics period or anytime soon in Canada,Just another insult to the Province of BC, what the Liberals do best! Further proof of Liberals getting qualified Candidates to run in a Federal Election.

Hi Nik

There is no doubt the Québec elections will impact on the federal position. S. Harper is gambling heavily on Jean Charest being elected with a majority. The federal budget will come out 7 days before the provincial vote and everyone is expecting it to be a sweetheart budget form Stephen to Jean. André Boisclaire has been not been performing well since winning the leadership and is open to a criticism for past misdeeds. His party the P.Q. is split; they will not reverse the liberal fortunes, but this does not mean that Charest will have an easy time of it; he is not a popular leader. Mario Dumont is getting a lot of attention, and unless he falls off a cliff as he did in the last elections, we could be in for a minority government in Québec. The Quebec electorate is can not be described as “right wing” If Jean Charest is unable to win a majority in this election despite this support from the Prime Minister. This will force Stephen Harper to pause in his march for a majority government.

Hi Nik,
Judging from today, I would say it's still early, but S. Harper is getting a lot of personal
flack this week, which had not been anticipated...I believe that he has been exposed, as
saying that he will do anything to get a majority gov't, and that even with a Liberal provincial
win in Qc., that by next week a new poll would indicate that people are starting to see
him in a different light!. He brought this upon himself, and is looking more and more
arrogant...Voters do not like this. Remember that his party was doing well at the polls
because he was viewed as a decisive leader - he is proving to be an arrogant bulley!!!
This has been the general concensus, both from the Press and the Medias.
In the meantime, S. Dion is getting more attention, and bringing Bob Rae, Martha Hall Findlay, and Justin Trudeau which will bring new "pazzaz" to his party. In the last two days,
S. Dion has stood-up to Mr. Harper, with renewed vigour, and has had much more media
attention. He is also proving good judgment on the "Sunset Clause", and as the issue
is now being clarified, with a few amendments, I believe that S. Harper will not get to renew
those "Sunset Clauses", when it gets the vote next Tuesday. While S. Harper is creating mahem for himself, S. Dion is busy
rebuilding/regenerating his party, getting good media attention, whereby he can explain
himself, and his policy decisions, and as he has always said, "While I am always being
under-estimated", and I say, he always comes out a winner. Even the Press is saying
that l'Hon. Dion is genuine, and a man of good common sense, which is all important
when debating the issues. With less pressure from Harper, M. Dion is even starting to
smile during his interviews, and already looks much more relaxed.
Good for him.

Cheers,
blos

Will this affect the Quebec Election, Liberal Appointed Activist Judges once again making Laws for Canadians Not Parliament. The Chart of Rights and Freedoms is written for Immigrants not the average born Canadian. This Court is putting Canadians at risk because of the pathetic Immigration Police of the Liberals for the last 13 yesrs. Time to re-write this poorly written Charter of Rights and Freedoms, who wrote it in the first place, you got it Mr Finger.

Phony Liberals like Goodale, Dion get sucked in, Complaing about Harper and accusing the Conservatives of hiding the statue of Lester B Pearson, it was proven by medial videos, the Liberals did the same thing with 3 Liberal Ministers standing at the exact same podium which also hid the statue of Lester B Pearson, these Liberals are going downhill fast and cannot be trusted, they are a collection of Clowns. Think before you speak in butchered English Dion

[updated Sat Feb 24 14:07:40 EST 2007]

Hi Nik,

Just a little over a year ago, Canadians decided to send the Natural Governing Party into temporary exile. This resulted in the Conservatives being elected with the smallest minority government in Canadian history, with the fewest percentage of government seats ever and the largest number of seats short of a majority. That is when “The Mission for a Majority” began.

And that is what the Quebec election is all about. It’s about winning more seats in Quebec in the next federal election and a Charest victory is important in that objective. It’s the big push for absolute power, a Conservative majority government. It’s about winning at any cost, whether it’s money, bullyboy tactics, American-style character assassination or resorting to flip-flops and nuance, e.g.,

- The “Environment” - Why the U-turn from, Climate Change is an “emerging science” to “the science is clear"?

- The "Fiscal Imbalance” - It’s a myth. But it’s a way to channel cash into Quebec under the pretense of solving an imaginary issue.

- The “Motion to Recognize the Quebecois as a Nation within a United Canada” – “Quebecois” meaning that it’s the Quebec people who are recognized as a nation, not the province. Legal and constitutional experts said that it has no legislative teeth and largely symbolic.

It’s the hypocrisy that’s galling. Remember the scurrilous remarks about and rancorous attacks on those “terrible” Liberals. Remember the blather about accountability and how this “New Government” was going to do things differently. It was a sham. When it comes to an accountability deficit, I’d say it’s a tie. And that’s what the polls are saying.

Before coming of voting age, I asked my grandmother, well versed in the affairs of state, about political parties and their philosophy. She was brief. She said that, in18th century Great Britain, the Whigs and Tories were political parties that had evolved into19th century Liberals and Conservatives. Smiling wryly, she added that, in the colonies, folklore had it that Whigs meant “Scottish horse thieves“ and Tories “Irish cattle rustlers”, adding that these derogatory brands were meant to reflect the two parties. Puzzled, I waited for an explanation. In other words, she said, “They’re the same band of thieves”. I’m beginning to believe my grandmother was right, as was Abraham Lincoln when he said:

“Nearly all men can withstand adversity; if you want to test a man's character, give him power.”