Nanos National Weekly Ballot Tracking - LP 37%, CP 29%, NDP 23%, GP 5%, BQ 5% (as of October 18, 2013)
As many of you know, Nanos conducts weekly tracking on the federal political scene. Our tracking ranges from the ballot to accessible voters to the perceptions of the leaders. This is rolled up into the weekly Nanos Party Power Index, which is released every Wednesday. Our internal ballot tracking numbers are for our corporate and non-profit clients (Nanos has no political parties as clients). Periodically, we will be sharing our ballot tracking numbers with broader audiences. With the Speech from the Throne and the events of the past few days related to the Senate controversy, this is one of those times.
Our weekly tracking allows for a consistent and clear understanding of the trends and helps one understand why the Conservatives placed such a high emphasis on the Speech from the Throne.
Of note, in our ballot tracking, although the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives, Stephen Harper’s personal numbers have improved in the lead up to the Speech from the Throne (from 51 to 57 percent, has the qualities of a good leader over the same period). Even with this improvement, this has not converted into more people who would consider voting for the Conservatives or Conservative support. It is also important to highlight, that over the same period, Liberal support improved, but Justin Trudeau’s personal numbers remained steady.
Stay tuned for the next few weeks as the Nanos Party Power Index tracks the fallout from the events of the last few days.
The Nanos Weekly Party Power Index Scores for each party nationally, regionally, by age, and by gender is available on the Nanos website.
The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians, using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interview where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The latest research was conducted over the four week period ending on October 18th, 2013.
A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
All references or use of this data must cite “Nanos Weekly Ballot Tracking” as the source.
Nanos Weekly Ballot Tracking for period ending October 18th, 2013.
National Ballot Tracking Question (Canada) - For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? [First Ranked Choice]
Aug. 31 Oct. 18
Liberal Party 33% 37%
Conservative Party 30% 29%
NDP 25% 23%
Green Party 5% 5%
Bloc Québécois 5% 5%
Source: Nanos Party Power Index, national random telephone sample (land- and cell-lines) of Canadians, four week rolling average ending August 31 (816 decided voters) and October 18, 2013 (826 decided voters). Accurate 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20 for decided voters.
What do you think?