A look at who Canadians would consider voting for
Although many are fixated on the ballot numbers, focusing on the accessible voter pool of voters for the parties can actually be more informative, especially between elections. In this case, the research suggests that in June, the federal Liberals did quite well in terms of accessible voters, as did the New Democrats. There has been a drop in accessible voters for both parties, while the Conservative potential remains generally unchanged through the whole period.
The Liberals currently have the largest accessible pool of voters (51%), followed by a statistical tie between the New Democrats (43%) and the Conservatives (40%), followed the Greens (24%), nationally.
By the way - as a heads up - we will soon be releasing a new weekly Nanos Party Brand Index. We have been working on the math and testing the model over the past 12 months. The new Nanos Index will effectively measure the trending political equity of federal parties on a weekly basis. Stay tuned.
For a detailed review of the survey tables, please visit the Nanos Research website at http://www.nanosresearch.com.
The data for September 2013 is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians, using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The latest wave was conducted between August 25th and September 21st, 2013. The results are statistically checked and weighted using the latest Census data. The sample included both land- and cell-lines across Canada.
The data for June 2013 is from a National Nanos RDD Crowdsource random survey of 1,000 Canadians conducted between June 16th and 19th, 2013. Participants were randomly recruited by telephone through the proprietary Nanos Crowdsource sample and administered a survey online. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,000 Canadians is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE]
The current wave of research is based on 1,000 voters. The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from June 19th, 2013 (n=1,000).
The Liberal Party of Canada
Would consider: 51.0% (-11.4)
Would not consider: 37.7% (+11.9)
Unsure: 11.3% (-0.5)
The New Democratic Party of Canada
Would consider: 42.9% (-15.5)
Would not consider: 44.3% (+14.7)
Unsure: 12.8% (+0.9)
The Conservative Party of Canada
Would consider: 39.5% (-2.8)
Would not consider: 49.4% (-2.1)
Unsure: 11.1% (+4.9)
The Bloc Québécois (Québec only, June 2013: n= 250, September 2013, n=248)
Would consider: 36.5% (+1.6)
Would not consider: 55.0% (+2.6)
Unsure: 8.5% (-4.2)
The Green Party of Canada
Would consider: 24.2% (-14.2)
Would not consider: 63.4% (+17.8)
Unsure: 12.4% (-3.6)
What do you think?