Federal Dead Heat - SES Research Poll Completed February 8

Another national polling company recently reported survey results showing the Conservatives
nationally at 38% and the Liberals at 31%. The media, where it was reported, called it a "slight lead" by the Conservatives. What are we to believe?

Westerner beat me to the punch. If polls are supposed to be a scientific survey of public opinion, why are polls that are coming out at the same time telling us different things on what the public thinks about politics?

As a Conservative, the only poll I treat as objective is the SES poll. I feel all the others are tainted with political bias. If Nik says we are up or down, I listen! D'Arc in Ontario

Trust and credibility will be major factors in the upcoming election------do you think the poll is reflecting the electorate's judgement of the shenanigans of the government party?

As a Conservative I do believe that the Cons.Party must do more and better to inform and educate Canadians about the policies contemplated in the time ahead before the next election.But also the party should be TRUE to its principles for Canadians to take it seriously.So far it has been fair, but can do and must do better. A return to a Liberal Govt. will be disastrious for Canada.The polling done by SES Research is exemplary and tops over any other research done.

I am so tired and frustrated by all comments even in this area talking only about the Conservatives and the Liberals, as if there aren't any other poltical parties to choose from. But that is probably because the only parties the media talks about are the Conservatives and liberals.

Isn't it high time we were individual thinkers instead of mass media followers?

Quick look seems to be little change. Outside of Alberta is tough sledding for Harper. This without any set backs for the winter in Afghanistan. With the war season starting over there - looks very good for Dionne. Time for more ugly hate ads? The interesting thing is will the BQ have the cojones to pull the plug?

I would think that after one year with the prerogatives of government the Tories could have done better than this. It seems to me that the tv ad campaign has not really dislodged any entrenched Liberal support at all. I continue to see the present Federal government as being in a very precarious situation and that it is likely to be forced into an election this year. If I had to guess, I would say it would occur in September if they can get past the humiliation of a renewal of Kyoto in the House and Senate and being prospectively forced to grant a longer transition period on income trusts. I also continue to see Harper as being an mild embarrassment to many Canadians. I am not sure this is being measured in the standard polls. He seems to give a lot of people the mild creeps, somewhat like the Pillsbury doughboy or Bimm the Michelin Man. This is not a guy you can love. Just a Leaside parvenue reshod. Any touch of stylishness from Dion in a general election campaign and a set of tv ads that basically ask whether you would buy a used car from Harper and I am betting a small majority for the Libs (largely because of clannishness in Quebec which will in the end prove too powerful to ignore). In Ontario and BC Harper is viewed by many with detached suspicion. So where is his majority going to come from? Answer: nowhere. He will be out of politics completely in a year from now.

Hi Nik,
If judging by these polls, no one should want an election. Tonight S. Harper said he did
not until 2009, but is moving forwards to an election by hook or by crook!
He also stated that S. Dion wanted to call an election, when, just today, M. Dion repeated that
he had no choice but to be ready for an election call. There's a big difference in the reality of
those statements. If we can judge by S. Harper's continued smear attacks, perhaps it is
because he is nervous that M. Dion will get better known, with a little more time, and he is
speeding to discreted him, not even on his own merits! S. Harper has always maintained that he
does not look at the polls!

Just want to add that adverse publicity in politics, and the polls have denoted this; does
little damage or have long-term effects. This is just another US mimick strategy. If the
Conservatives continue to be in a state of denial as they have been all of this week; the tables
are going to turn radically, and so are the polls. And I just don't mean on the environment, but because of all of the other issues that they can't meet.
blos

Hi Nik

Looks to me like the liberals have made gains in most provinces except Quebec and Ontario. The two most important provinces; in Quebec the good news is the Bloc lost a lot of points, and in Ontario, naming John Baird to the environment was a good move by the government, he is a good performer and popular in Ontario. But unless the conservatives are ready to make concessions on the environment, they will lose those points and more. Baird is a great scrapper, but he has to tow the conservative line on climate change. Canadians want more action than Harper is offering. If the vote on Kyoto passes the house next Wednesday we could be in for an interesting spring. Once the bill has passed both chambers and has gotten royal assent. Will the conservatives follow the law of the land? Maybe we could nic name Harper and his team the Dalton boys.

Who wants to lose jobs and living conditions to pay for green credits.

Hi Nik,

The “New Conservative Government” seems to spend an inordinate amount of time criticizing the “Old Liberal Government”. The incongruity is that this “New Government” sounds more and more like the “Old Government” with each passing day. They’ve even caught the bait-and-switch bug.

- Accountability - The hypocrisy started on swearing-in day with appointments of unelected Tory Michael Fortier to the Senate and Liberal defector David Emerson to Cabinet. And such righteous anger when Stronach crossed the floor.

- Patients’ Wait-times Guarantee - Patients still waiting.

- Promise Not to Tax Income Trusts - The Tories proclamations in House of Commons debates (Nov/2005 Hansards) and in the October 25/05 National Post article, “Questioning income trusts puts seniors at risk”, established their support of income trusts. The public had every right to expect that the promise not to tax income trusts was based on thorough research of the possible impact on federal taxes. One could not believe that a Party would make such a promise without doing so. That’s why they have research departments. And I’m sure there’s a plethora of facts and figures available in the financial world on this issue to pore over. Surely, it wasn’t a crass election promise to garner votes.

- The “Clean Air Act” quickly morphed into a “Hot Air Act” when it was realized that the environment was an important issue with “voters”. The “green” announcements, including some recycled Liberal oldies, didn’t impress. A recent Decima Research survey of 1,023 Canadians found that respondents by a four-to-one margin saw the announcements as being driven by public opinion, not genuine commitment.

I believe the tacky ads will turn voters away from the Conservative as well. It’s certainly distressing to watch our elected representatives disparaging reputations to enhance their Party’s odds. Canadians don’t like American-style smear campaigns. In a Decima Research survey released February 7/07, two-thirds of those who saw the ads said they weren’t relevant to their choice in the next election; 59% said they were an unfair description of Mr. Dion.

My intuition tells me that voters are turning to alternatives looking for civility, integrity and principle. The electorate is angry with both major parties regularly and arrogantly doing the opposite of what they promised during the election. They’re fed up with politicians’ manipulation of election timing in their push for power. In other words, they are tired of being played as fools. I think that Canadians are quite contented with minority governments. It keeps politicians honest and humble.

The next election should be called the “Clash of the Clones“.

Former President Ronald Reagan was right when he said, “Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.”

Although it is further west, BC is not the West. There should be a "prairies" and BC column and really Alberta should be pulled out as well since it distorts the prairies' result.
I also think the sample size has to be increase to at least 1500 to better reflect regional numbers.

Harper has more face time hence his strength in the polls. Opposition Leaders can only oppose and not deliver speeches and money as a PM can. So temporarily the PM is more noticed. When an election campaign opens each leader will be followed by (hopefully and predominantly) objective media. This is when Canadians can compare parties and make some decisions about their choice. Presently only 10 - 15 % of potential voters are aware of Harper , Dion, Layton. Duceppe and May. They are too busy with Oscar, American Idol, Hockey etc etc .Fortunately during the next election there will be few or no phoney negative issues to be faced by the Liberal Party and that will help them pull themselves up again.
The ads the Conservatives are running I consider to be mind controlling and very costly to the Conservatives. Anyone in Canada who can think objectively will see these ads for what they are. Below the belt smears with manufactured ads from snippets of video.To me they are cheap but hopefully to the CPC they are expensive in dollars and votes.

Where can I find all the Poll numbers ??