Friday, April 18, 2014 - (47109 comments)

Nanos National Tracking - CP 31.5%, LP 29.1%, NDP 27.2%, GP 5.9%, BQ 5.2% (ending February 24th, 2013)

11 comments Latest by RonaldODowd

Nik on the Numbers

There are a number of key observations in terms of the Nanos national tracking. The national ballot race is tightening up. The trend line for Conservative support, although still numerically ahead of the opposition parties, is trending downward and is at the lowest level in the Nanos tracking since August 2009.

Three regional races are also quite tight: BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Also of note, in the province of Quebec support for the BQ has been trending upward, although the BQ still significantly trail the New Democrats.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Retrouvez les tableaux détaillés ainsi que les notes méthodologiques sur notre site web en français où vous pouvez également vous inscrire afin de recevoir des mises à jours régulières sur nos sondages.


Between February 19th and 24th, 2013, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians 18 years and older. A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

For 717 committed voters, the margin of error is accurate plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for January 2013 are from a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians conducted between January 26th and 31st. A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The current February wave of research is based on 1,000 voters, including 717 committed voters. The numbers in parentheses denote the change from January 31st, 2012 (n=780).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=717 committed voters)

Conservative 31.5% (-2.8)
Liberal 29.1% (+1.5)
NDP 27.2% (+0.1)
Green 5.9% (+1.2)
BQ 5.2% (+0.6)
*Undecided 28.3% (+6.4)

For regional numbers please visit the Nanos website at

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He Isn't Even Leader Yet And He's Already Knocked The PM Off His Stride.

No wonder the Conservatives are working feverishly to package the shit in a can to use against Justin Trudeau in the magic infomercials. Can't blame them -- you know what they say about lightning striking thrice in the same place...

Today, in response to a question from Trudeau, the PM referred to him as "Minister" (twice). See that, even Stephen Harper is capable of recognizing rising talent when he sees it! Harper went on to say how pleased he was to see Justin in the House. Perhaps, the PM needs a bit of a vacation from the chamber -- you know, to get his groove back.

It was worth a few laughs and jeers but I've seen worse. I can think back to Justin's dad in 1980 who referred in the House to Joe Clark as "Prime Minister" after Clark had already been defeated. Many of us thought that one was pretty funny too.

[updated Fri Mar 08 03:22:15 -0500 2013]

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08 Mar 03:22

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It Was All About Aline, Now Is It About Laureen?

Watch me pass for an idiot. Now, that Steve Paiken has weighed in, I thought I would go further and prove how even more stupid I can be!

Earlier on Warren Kinsella's website, I predicted that this Prime Minister would not be able to control his retirement for political reasons -- with Justin Trudeau likely to become Liberal leader, Stephen Harper would have to face him in an election or come off as chicken. That was the political rationale behind my analysis (such as it was) but suddenly I am starting to at least consider that I may be all wet.

Think back to Jean Chrétien, until Aline signed on with the words "four more years" no one knew for sure whether Chrétien would actually go for a third mandate. Granted, there was also the small matter of the Martinites and perhaps pushing that inevitability down the road. But I digress.

Getting back to Harper -- I wonder whether Laureen is still on board or has she perhaps had enough of Ottawa and the political life. Maybe Ben and Rachel would like to return to Alberta, who really knows. So, in hindsight, I'm backing off my strictly political prediction in favour of the more personal.

Like last time, scratch the surface and see what Laureen thinks -- that is, if she is of a mind to tell anyone anything. If she isn't, that's OK. After all, it is her and her family's business. Meanwhile, the rest of Ottawa can wait and wonder.

[updated Sun Mar 10 23:14:37 -0400 2013]

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10 Mar 23:14

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I Guess The Farting Around And Avoiding It Strategy Hasn't Worked.

Well, what do you know, Philippe Couillard, the newly minted Quebec Liberal leader is in favour of constitutional reform. Yes, constitutional reform is what I just wrote. And it gets better -- he wants to begin a process that will lead to Quebec's signature on the 1983 constitution.

I know, pretty much all of you are thrilled. For my part, I could never quite get my head around why Jean Charest wouldn't touch this with a ten-foot pole. Premiers are there to fight for and defend their province. That's the name of the game.

By why now? I'll give you a hint: francophones are in no hurry to return to the warm bosom of the Quebec Liberals. That's what put Pauline in power and could very well keep her there. Phillipe seems to think this will be enough to move some of them off the PQ dime. We'll see.

Meanwhile, starting in the PMO and moving across the country, the PM and Premiers can start on taking their preferred headache remedies today. I don't know about you but I would be thinking back-up-plan if I was sitting in one of those various capitals. That thought seems to have escaped most of them so far.

As for who does it help and who does it hurt? Nationally, it works against Mulcair most of all -- knowing the frame of mind of many English-speaking Canadians. It will help Trudeau but the big winner is Harper. Conversely, taken from a Quebec seat perspective, it's the exact opposite. The NDP comes out on top by a country mile. It solidifies support in Quebec and strengthens their hold on their seats. For the Liberals, it means trouble in francophone ridings, not recently accustomed to tilting Liberal. Of course, the big loser in Quebec are the Conservatives -- who happen to be ready to make a constitutional deal with a government led by Philippe Couillard -- one day after hell freezes over.

[updated Mon Mar 18 20:51:46 -0400 2013]

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18 Mar 20:51

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Question Of The Day: Why is Justin Trudeau such an asshole, and why would Liberals elect him, when dam well know the Liberals under him would not govern for another 50 years, tell us Ronald

[updated Tue Mar 19 02:06:39 -0400 2013]

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19 Mar 02:06

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Ronald the Sun News Network (my favorite news channel) they get at the true where the CBC and others do not. Liberal insider says party is stacking votes in favor of Justin Trudeau, which is more of a crime?

[updated Tue Mar 19 03:38:58 -0400 2013]

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19 Mar 03:38

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Justin, Be The Best That You Can Be.

Have we arrived at a watershed moment? The Harper government's support is now in the low thirties in voter intention and this Prime Minister's number is dropping as regards most competent leader. This could be significant or it could merely serve as a prelude to the next round of shit-in-a-can which, of course, is just off the radar.

As one who has joined my candidate in supporting Justin's leadership bid, I have to say that it is evident that Justin is a work-in-progress. Fortunately for Liberals, he is picking up leadership skills along the way. Trudeau is a quick study.

When Justin announced his candidacy, I saw quite a few things that I liked -- a man who listened more than he spoke -- a new face who would bring fresh ideas to the race. What has followed has been a wobbly campaign with some mistakes related to the leadership learning curve.

But it seems to me that the party has reached the point where it is prepared to entrust this gentleman with its leadership. It is not a question of hope, a wing and a prayer. It's so much more than that. A plurality of Liberals and might I suggest many Canadians, have come to the conclusion that it's a safe bet to elect Justin Trudeau as leader. Unless something unforeseen takes place, he will have two years on the job before the next election. In Quebec, we call this apprendre sur le tas.

Once the seemingly inevitable comes to pass, my advice would be to be yourself at all times, remember that like every other politician, to semi-borrow from Justin's dad, that you are basically nobody five feet from your political office. That means never taking yourself seriously. No leader, or potential leader, ever actually manages to walk on water. Be slow to take offense or wallow as a result of hurt pride or feelings. And most important of all -- maintain and foster as much as you can, a political and personal sense of humour. This isn't the Chinese Water Torture, it's only politics. So go with the flow, whether the current happens to go up or down. And if you are wise enough to instinctively know how to laugh at yourself once in a while, so much the better!

[updated Mon Mar 25 00:09:40 -0400 2013]

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25 Mar 00:09

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Welcome To Team 31.5%!

Just in case you haven't noticed, Team Conservative is languishing in the basement. Hell, at 32%, you can't even form government. But that's not what's important -- what really counts is Why?

Scenario One goes something like this: behold a tired government filled with take-it-for-granted types who choose to snooze along for the ride and are convinced that a) as soon as an election comes to life that they will automatically and magically get the 10 plus points they need to form another majority and b) that Justin is guaranteed to self-destruct with or without a little help from his Conservative friends.

As for Scenario Two: the Liberals are only up because of a temporary bump caused by Justin's soon to be annointed state. They might call it an abberation which they believe will soon enough revert to the mean. Right. In their world of rough-'em-up-politics, the deflating is about to begin and they expect about the same results as when the tactic was last used against Ignatieff. They think they can send Liberal seat numbers even lower.

I tend to regard Scenario One as the thing you have to work with but my interpretation differs from theirs. They have been in office for seven years and that, in and of itself takes a political toll. They haven't been the pretty, new pony for quite some time...and to my surprise, they are still making major mistakes in office.

Let's start with Max Bernier. We can argue whether Max is right or not sur le fond. My view happens to be that he is. Trouble is, he's a minister -- you know, in cabinet, and to come out publicly against a position or act taken by a cabinet colleague is simply verboten. He might be in for unpleasant news when the shuffle comes our way.

And what was the effect of such a demonstration? Well, we've seen the results courtesy of the so-called rogue MPs. Can you spell emboldened? Translation: Mark Warwara, Leon Benoit, and apparently, if rumour is to be believed -- at least seventeen others.

They say this Prime Minister is good at putting out fires. Uh huh. But stay tuned for the second act anyway because as sure as I'm breathing, there will be another manifestation of same -- probably sooner rather than later.

Sooo...not to put too fine a point on it, busy yourself taking care of your own ship cause whether you know it or not, if Justin lives or dies politically is basically irrelevant to your party's current political predicament.

This one's on the house.

[updated Thu Apr 04 02:17:42 -0400 2013]

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04 Apr 02:17

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