Wednesday, April 16, 2014 - (47109 comments)

Nanos National Tracking - CP 34.3%, LP 27.6%, NDP 27.1%, GP 4.7%, BQ 4.6% (ending January 31st, 2013)

5 comments Latest by RonaldODowd

Nik on the Numbers

The Conservatives remained in the lead nationally in January with 34.3%, while the Liberals (27.6%) and the NDP (27.1%) were tied in second place. They were followed by the Greens at 4.7% and the Bloc at 4.6%.

Jobs/economy was still the top national issue of concern over the past month (22.4%) followed by healthcare (14.8%).


Between January 26th and 31st, 2013, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians 18 years and older. A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

For 780 commited voters, the margin of error is accurate plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for November 2012 are from a random telephone survey of 1,004 Canadians conducted between November 9th and 15th, 2012. A random telephone survey of 1,004 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The current January wave of research is based on 1,000 voters, including 780 committed voters. The numbers in parentheses denote the change from November 15th, 2012 (n=776).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=780 committed voters)

Conservative 34.3% (+0.5)
Liberal 27.6% (-1.4)
NDP 27.1% (-0.1)
Green 4.7% (+1.0)
BQ 4.6% (-0.3)
*Undecided 21.9% (-0.8)

National Issue: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from November 15th, 2012 (n=1,004).

Canada (n=1,000)

Jobs/economy 22.4% (-2.2)
Healthcare 14.8% (-1.2)
The environment 7.9% (+1.0)
Debt/deficit 4.6% (-0.4)
Politicians/government 4.1% (+4.1)
Unsure 16.3% (-0.7)

Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest “Nanos Poll”.

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Lex Llewdor

I find the volatility in the Liberal supprt nubers very interesting. Pollster after pollster puts the CPC support within the same narrow band, and NDP support within a band that is only slightly less well defined. But the Liberal numbers are all over the map. Just so far in 2013, the Liberals have polled anywhere from 19 to 30 (with 21 and 30 both coming since this Nanos poll).

What's going on? Maybe there's some aspect of current Liberal support that is extremely sensitive to the wording of the question. I have no idea, but I'm sure pollsters are scratching their heads on this one as well.

[updated Thu Feb 14 22:24:20 -0500 2013]

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14 Feb 22:24

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Liberal Leadership: Look, Save Yourself A Lot Of Time -- Just Catch Craig!

I have to tell you, I wasn't particularly inclined on Friday night to agree with Craig Oliver. He basically said that the expectation within the Liberal Party (and I suppose without) is that Justin Trudeau is about to become our party's next leader.

Today, after watching the latest Liberal debate, I have to say that Craig was right. Justin is improving day by day and one senses that the party at least is willing to give him a chance. They don't mind a little rough and tumble in debates but they expect the incoming shots to be fair. That's what Marc Garneau has done.

We saw something quite different when Martha Hall Findlay tried to make a point about how Canadians generally view their society as egalitarian without a necessary class distinction. However, the way she put the question to Justin seemed to get the audience's back up. In short, it appeared to blow up right in her face.

Some of the other sniping left me with the impression that those particular scripts were being sub-contracted to the Conservative war room but hey, that's someone else's problem.

Keep up with Craig's commentary going forward. If Justin starts to fade, Craig will pick up on it. If not, it will only confirm Oliver's astute analysis of the leadership race.

[updated Sun Feb 17 00:07:05 -0500 2013]

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17 Feb 00:07

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Harper vs. Harper.

Prime Minister,

Welcome to Ministerial Crunch Time. In two words, it comes down to Harper's Choice -- which person will be selected by the PM to serve as the next Aboriginal Affairs Minister. More importantly, which Stephen Harper will be taking that decision.

Option One: Traditional Harper -- a conventional and safe choice. A continuation of this Prime Minister's personal penchant toward individual steps and incremental action.

Option Two: Bold and Uncharacteristic Harper -- last seen by way of the First Nations Apology and successive reductions in the Goods and Services Tax.

Option Three: A Constituency Oriented Harper -- resulting more from an intellectual exercise -- a conclusion based on the premise that the next Minister must have from Day One Instant Credibility with First Nations Peoples. Furthermore, that individual must be a personal reflection of what it is to be an Aboriginal Canadian.

Already, press and pundits are pushing Option One and have seemingly decided who happens to be the obvious next choice. Some will point to James Moore as proof that Harper intends to go down that road. Moore is filling in once again. The last time, he necessarily served as nothing more than a caretaker...will his tenure be different this time? Will the file advance by leaps and bounds under Moore's temporary stewardship? Somehow, I doubt it.

Harper has to decide whether he truly intends to make a difference and leave a substantial contribution to Canada in this area. He has the option of trying to hit one right out of the park. With the right minister, the fences will be within reach.

I have a pretty good idea how this will play out. What about you?

[updated Sun Feb 17 00:35:06 -0500 2013]

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17 Feb 00:35

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I Mean, Give Some People A Shovel And...

Candidly, I'm dumbfounded trying to figure out what's going on in Ottawa. When I heard that this Prime Minister and Finance Minister had leveled a broadside against two retired public servants, I just couldn't believe it. Everyone has a right to their opinion in a comment piece. They are either bang on or completely in error. But that is not for Harper and Flaherty to judge, it's for the public to take a decision on the performance and effectiveness of the Harper government.

Personally, I have no idea who is right as it relates to this they said, they said. But I do know one thing, taking on your own public service, or officers of parliament, is never a winning proposition over the long run.

Some people suggest there have been examples of private agendas as it relates to government contract work. Theoretically, anything is possible. I can tell you that when I look at the CF-35 process and ship procurement program, I start to wonder what's really going on. Who is in the loop and who's in the dark?

But in the final analysis, I wouldn't recommend trying to nail public servants to the cross -- even DND employees.

Harper has to keep his eyes on the ball -- accountability and transparency are what counts. If they do a good job, they will reap the political rewards. If not, well, we all know how that could potentially play out if they go out of their way and make a whole slew of enemies in the public service.

[updated Wed Mar 06 20:49:14 -0500 2013]

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06 Mar 20:49

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