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Nanos National Tracking - CP 33.8%, LP 29.0%, NDP 27.2%, BQ 4.9%, GP 3.7% (ending November 15th, 2012)

27 comments Latest by Lex Llewdor

The key finding is the trend line on the Harper image. With his international trade initiatives, it seems Harper has recovered lost ground resulting from his tumultuous spring which included him managing pushback on the omnibus bill, estimates related to the cost of the F35s and investigations related to the last federal election. Harper now has a Leadership Index score of 104.2, followed by Thomas Mulcair with 43.6, Bob Rae with 37.7, Elizabeth May with 23.7 and Daniel Paillé with 7.7.

Support for the Conservatives remains relatively unchanged at 33.8 percent with the Liberals at 29.0, the NDP at 27.2, the BQ at 4.9 and the Green Party at 3.7.

Methodology

Between November 9th and 15th, 2012, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,004 Canadians 18 years and older. A random telephone survey of 1,004 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

For 776 commited voters, the margin of error is accurate plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for October 2012 are from a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians conducted between October 4th and 11th, 2012. A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The current November wave of research is based on 1,004 voters, including 776 committed voters. The numbers in parentheses denote the change from October 11th, 2012 (n=822).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=776 committed voters)

Conservative 33.8% (+0.5)
Liberal 29.0% (-1.1)
NDP 27.2% (-0.7)
BQ 4.9% (+0.2)
Green 3.7% (+0.8)
*Undecided 22.7% (-4.9)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [ROTATE] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc Québécois, Thomas Mulcair is the leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada’s future.

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from October 11th 2012 (n=1,000).

Canada (n=1,004)

Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper 104.2 (+8.3)
Thomas Mulcair 43.6 (-4.1)
Bob Rae 37.7 (+4.6)
Elizabeth May 23.7 (+7.6)
Daniel Paillé 7.7 (+0.7)

The Most Trustworthy Leader
Stephen Harper 30.3% (+1.1)
Thomas Mulcair 16.0% (-0.4)
Bob Rae 13.2% (+2.4)
Elizabeth May 12.0% (+2.5)
Daniel Paillé 3.0% (+0.4)
None of them 10.4% (-5.3)
Undecided 15.1% (-0.6)

The Most Competent Leader
Stephen Harper 41.4% (+3.1)
Bob Rae 13.2% (+1.9)
Thomas Mulcair 12.0% (-1.8)
Elizabeth May 4.6% (+1.6)
Daniel Paillé 2.4% (-0.4)
Undecided 19.3% (-0.7)
None of them 7.0% (-3.9)

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future
Stephen Harper 32.5% (+4.1)
Thomas Mulcair 15.6% (-1.9)
Bob Rae 11.3% (+0.3)
Elizabeth May 7.1% (+3.5)
Daniel Paillé 2.3% (+0.7)
Undecided 21.4% (-3.9)
None of them 9.9% (-2.8)

What do you think?


Cheers,

Nik

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I watched the National last night and saw the commentary by Rex Murphy. He summe... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 23 Nov 11:59

You all know what I think of public sector "leadership", so I won't repeat it. ... more

Bernie (Ontario) 23 Nov 16:19

I'm not sure how I would have answered the Competency question, and it would dep... more

Pennyvane (Ontario) 22 Nov 23:24

I watched the National last night and saw the commentary by Rex Murphy. He summe... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 23 Nov 11:59

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Pennyvane

I'm not sure how I would have answered the Competency question, and it would depend on the exact question.
Is Harper competent at what getting what HE wants? Yes.
Is he competent at using our tax dollars to pay and/or advertise for his pet projects, such as tarsands, 1812, Job Inaction & Dwindling Prosperity? Yes
Is he competent at shutting down or slashing funding to every fact-finding body? Yes
Is he competent at flouting the Canadians mores of clean elections.? It would appear to be a resounding Yes
Is he competent at eliminating the $13B Surplus and running up the deficit? Yes
Is he competent at giving global corporations advantages over Canadian business? His so-called "trade" deals indicate Yes
Is he competent at destroying the Canada he hates? Yes and no. Ipsos Reid poll showed Canadians seem to be keeping, if not re-inforcing our values, but his enviro non-policies are directed at allowing, if not encouraging, Canada's physical destruction
Is he a competent leader? No. By all accounts he's a bully who doesn't see his own MP's as anything but place holders. He also doesn't listen to any views other than his own.
Is he competent at managing the economy? No. He's interested in one industry only. One longterm sustainable business wouldn't be so bad, but Oil has always been "boom n bust". What's his plan B for the bust times? He appears bent on destroying Canada's landscape for non-renewable energy
Is he competent at looking after the needs of Canadians? Hah! No

Although I have more yesses than no's, Harper is only competent at looking after his energy backers, private prison management lobbyists (C10), and his "vision" of Canada as a petro-state.
The No's all relate to benefits for Canada, Canadian business and Canadians, so on balance my answer would be NO.

I'm sure I don't have to provide you with reference links for my statements, but I will if needed.

[updated Thu Nov 22 23:24:55 -0500 2012]

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22 Nov 23:24

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hollinm

I watched the National last night and saw the commentary by Rex Murphy. He summed it up very well. In essence he said. Anybody who thinks they can forecast the results of an election three years down the road is crazy. Anybody who thinks what the Liberals will do with Trudeau as leader is also living in some fantasy world. Hence the problem with polls today. There is no relationship to the reality and is driven by a media that is starved for news.

However, the leadership index does give a barometer of what those polled feel about political leadership. Harper has consistently led all the opposition party leaders by a generous amount. That is a good indication of who Canadians will vote for come the next election. They vote for their wallets every time.

Do we really think that Canadians are going to elect the NDP as the next government when the caucus is loaded with Separatists and kids who have barely moved out of their parents' basement and who are pretending they are MPs?.

Do we really think that Canadians are going to elect a man-child from Quebec who only talks to university kids and the party faithful. When he speaks it is in cliches, bromides and spin. His people just wrote an op-ed about supporting the CNOC deal and you would think by the media accounts it was equivalent to Moses receiving the Ten Commandants.

We already see the man-child blowing himself up over arrogant comments he made a couple of years ago about Alberta and Albertans. So much for Nik's poll.

[updated Fri Nov 23 11:59:46 -0500 2012]

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23 Nov 11:59

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Bernie

You all know what I think of public sector "leadership", so I won't repeat it.
Leadership? Elizabeth May best represents the views of Canadians
Most Trustworthy; Probably May, but Rae is too
Most competent; May ; or none of the above
Best vision; definitely May but Rae gets a vote too.

When the top public office holder provides "leadership", we get ;
Contempt for elected colleagues, smearing them at every opportunity
Contempt for our constitution, shutting down parliament, breaking the law, his own. resorting to legal procedures to obfuscate and delay dealing with the truth, creating ominous bills covering everything making it impossible to vote properly on any single issue.
Contempt for the media and others who try to get public information
Tampering with and breaking election laws
Accepting the illegal acts of his ministers without punishment or even chastisement.
Hypocritical love and respect for soldiers, attending events for photo ops, false praise and then ignore them when they come back cripled and even allowing unauthorized access to personal files in order to descredit them.
Allowing the turn over of detainees to be tortured. Destroy the reputation and careers of those who reveal the truth.
Absolute control over his members even tho they are elected by the people, so contempt for thsoe electing them.
Allowing foreign corporations control over our local laws
Selling of our resources to provide employment to workers in other countries, leaving a barren depleted land for furure generations

This is only a fraction of the great accomplishments of this leader.
Oh Right Honourable, Greatest, Most Wonderful, Dearest Leader lead us on
"oh , what fools ye mortals be."

[updated Fri Nov 23 16:19:01 -0500 2012]

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23 Nov 16:19

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RonaldODowd

More Proof That Ignorance Is REALLY Bliss In Ottawa (If That Was Actually Ever In Doubt).

Éric Grenier is reporting over at ThreeHundredEight.com that a new Le Devoir-(Montreal) The Gazette Léger Marketing poll shows support for Quebec sovereignty among francophones at 49%.

And the band played on...

[updated Wed Nov 28 23:37:48 -0500 2012]

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28 Nov 23:37

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