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Nanos Federal Tracking: CP 34 NDP 30 LP 27 GP 4 BQ 4

11 comments Latest by RonaldODowd

The latest Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a ballot share of 33.6% nationally, while the NDP have slid to 30.3%. The Liberals remained in third with 26.5%, while the Greens and Bloc were at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively.

Of note, in Quebec the Liberals were up by nearly 8 percentage points (25.0%). It is too early to say, however, if this is a one-month phenomenon or the start of a longer trend.

Healthcare and jobs remained tied as the top issue of national concern for Canadians (24.5% versus 23.7%). The environment registered the biggest change from the previous wave of tracking (up 3.2%), and was cited as the top issue of national concern by 9.4% of Canadians.

Stephen Harper continued to top the Nanos Leadership Index, some 25 points ahead of NDP leader Thomas Mulcair (72.7 versus 46.8). While Harper was more likely to be considered the most trustworthy leader, the most competent leader and the leader with the best vision for Canada in most regions, in Quebec it was Mulcair who continued to perform best on the Leadership Index.

Methodology

Between July 7th and 12th, 2012, Nanos Research conducted a national random telephone survey of 1,200 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,200 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 954 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for May 31st, 2012 are from a random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians conducted between May 26th and 31st, 2012. A random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

Canada (n=954)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from May 31st, 2012.

Decided Voters Only
Conservative: 33.6% (+0.1)
NDP: 30.3% (-3.3)
Liberal: 26.5% (+1.6)
Green: 4.4% (+2.0)
BQ: 4.2% (+0.8)

20.5% of the total sample was undecided (+4.3)

National Issue: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

Canada (n=1,200)

Healthcare: 24.5% (+2.0)
Jobs/economy: 23.7% (+2.5)
The environment: 9.4% (+3.2)
Education: 7.9% (+1.0)
Debt/deficit: 4.2% (+0.8)
Unsure: 11.6% (-1.5%)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Thomas Mulcair is the leader of the federal NDP, Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party and Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada?

Leadership Index Score:

Stephen Harper: 72.7 (+0.3)
Thomas Mulcair: 46.8 (-1.4)
Bob Rae: 41.5 (+9.3)
Elizabeth May: 15.4 (-2.0)
Daniel Paillé: 7.0 (+1.0)

Most Trustworthy Leader:

Canada (n=1,200)

Stephen Harper: 23.0% (+0.1)
Thomas Mulcair: 15.8% (+0.3)
Bob Rae: 14.5% (+3.7)
Elizabeth May: 7.1% (-1.2)
Daniel Paillé: 2.2% (+0.3)
Undecided: 22.6% (-0.9)
None of them: 14.8% (-2.4)

Most Competent Leader:

Canada (n=1,200)

Stephen Harper: 27.1% (-0.7)
Thomas Mulcair: 12.8% (-2.5)
Bob Rae: 14.0% (+3.2)
Elizabeth May: 4.1% (+0.7)
Daniel Paillé: 2.7% (+0.5)
Undecided: 26.9% (-1.3)
None of them: 12.4% (0.0)

Leader with Best Vision:

Canada (n=1,200)

Stephen Harper: 22.6% (+0.9)
Thomas Mulcair: 18.2% (+0.8)
Bob Rae: 13.0% (+2.4)
Elizabeth May: 4.2% (-1.5)
Daniel Paillé: 2.1% (+0.2)
Undecided: 27.6% (-2.3)
None of them: 12.3% (-0.6)

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest “Nanos Survey”.

What do you think?

Cheers,

Nik

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Highest Rated Comments

It's disappointing to see that Harper's ballot share hasn't dropped to zero. I ... more

Bernie (Ontario) 19 Jul 15:57

Bernie...you have been saying the same thing for the past 6 years. Harper could ... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 20 Jul 02:20

Hollinm, It's a wonder you don't fall over laughing as you type! Please, give u... more

RonaldODowd (Ontario) 23 Jul 02:14

Hollinm, It's a wonder you don't fall over laughing as you type! Please, give u... more

RonaldODowd (Ontario) 23 Jul 02:14

Bernie...you have been saying the same thing for the past 6 years. Harper could ... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 20 Jul 02:20

Muclair's Dutch Disease comments will hurt him quite badly as the price of oil f... more

Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 20 Jul 21:35

Comments

Bernie

It's disappointing to see that Harper's ballot share hasn't dropped to zero. I was expecting to see NDP close to 40% and was surprised to see Liberals higher than 20%. I think there are a lot of undecided voters out there. With 3 years to go before the next election not too many are thinking about voting for anyone.

The environment should still be the most important issue. The economy and health depend on it.
The living standard of the less fortunate is not even mentioned. Have Canadians lost their empathy or even sympathy?

How Harper comes first in any of those is beyond me. Especially so of trust. When some one continually lies to you and hides from you anything that may affect you how can you trust him?

Vision? how do we know what it is? I don't believe he has one for Canada, one for himself maybe, but we'll know what it is.

[updated Thu Jul 19 15:57:16 -0400 2012]

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19 Jul 15:57

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RonaldODowd

Quebec: Which Is It?

Rumours are circulating about the imminent dissolution of the National Assembly. To the surprise of no one, it appears we are headed into a provincial election -- one that I expect to be called for Monday, September 10th.

To my mind, it's basically one of the following slogans that will prevail. Personally, I don't see any chance that the Coalition avenir Québec can come up the middle as king maker. Quebec is quite simply too polarized for the CAQ to play a role in a minority scenario.

If it's On en a assez, Charest's goose is cooked. If that feeling actually represents the view of a majority of Quebecers, especially among francophones, there is no way that the Liberals will be returned to office. Charest has been in power since 2003.

On the other hand, if it's On n'en a jamais assez -- as happened two elections ago because of major doubts about the so-called alternative and its leader, then Charest is in the driver's seat and will be re-elected with a bare majority.

In short, the real question mark is not what people think about Charest personally -- that evidently seems rather well telegraphed at this point but more importantly, how do they really feel about Marois? Is she up to the job of serving as premier and can she run a competent government? If the answer is yes, the PQ is on its way to a majority of comfortable proportions.

Charest is one wily politician. He thinks Marois can't cut it. We'll find out soon enough whether the Premier's instincts were bang on target.

[updated Mon Jul 23 14:42:48 -0400 2012]

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23 Jul 14:42

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