Nanos tracking on economic mood shows continued slow erosion (Nanos Economic Indices - June 2012)

What do I think? I think Canadians are smart.

Europe is a time bomb. The Americans appear to have no idea what they're doing. Everyone should be worried about this.

Personally, I'm selling my house. I think this is a lousy time to be carrying debt of any kind.

[updated Fri Jun 15 22:43:31 -0400 2012]

I understand why those indices are going down. My mood, pocketbook and expectations have been down all along and are continually going in that direction. The economy is getting worse and real estate has to drop back soon. My finances are getting worse and if interest rates go up I may be on the street. I'm long time retired so job security is not an issue for me.

Recently the most news is about Europe. It's making the most headlines but it is not the biggest issue for me. They are in serious trouble and I don't see the political guts to do what is necessary. Still, I think they will struggle through, kicking the can down the road.

The US is far more serious. They are in great trouble and it will become evident within the next year. It could be elevated somewhat if Obama is re-elected and the Dems get control on the Senate and the House. If Momney and the Reps get control then I see no hope for them Since we are so tied to the American economy we would be hit hard.

So that's my gloomy prediction, but personally I'll survive. I always have.

[updated Sat Jun 16 15:36:55 -0400 2012]

Time For The Harper Government To Be Pro-Active As Egyptians Vote In Presidential Elections.

Frankly, this piece has been delayed by three weeks. It's original heading was going to be: Egypt: Is The Fix In? I started to have serious doubts where this election really was going when the military council let former prime minister and air force general Shafik's name stay on the presidential ballot. My immediate reaction was, what is Field Marshal Tantawi up to?

More doubts arose on Thursday when the Supreme Constitutional Court dissolved Parliament -- where the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies were clearly the dominant force. The court ruled that a bloc of seats initially marked for independents was filled by elected members with ties to political parties. Call that convenient window dressing to undermine the Brotherhood while respecting constitutional niceties.

Is the fix really in to make sure that the Brotherhood's Morsi is not elected president? Will this round of elections actually be transparent and fair -- or will we see more ballot stuffing, multiple voting and high participation rates coming out of "cemetery" districts...?

That's where Canada comes in along with other Western countries. We need to send Tantawi a crystal clear message that monkey business will not be tolerated. President Obama can use extensive Egyptian aid -- particularly military assistance as a carrot or even a stick. But Canada only has her good name and her democratic traditions. We need to see our Prime Minister on the record now -- with Canadian diplomats privately contacting their Egyptian counterparts sending the message that no illegitimate result will be accepted by the international community.

Political travesties have taken place in the past in Algeria, Myanmar and other nations. Let's make damned sure that Egypt does not get to join that list.

[updated Sat Jun 16 19:48:57 -0400 2012]

Leadership Convention 2013.

Is it fair comment to begin with the premise that everything logically flows from the position that Canadians in general, and the voting public in particular, are thirsty for clear positions on where the party and its future leadership candidates want to take the country? I think so.

Next comes the realization that the Liberal Party is like a three-sided boxing match. Justin knows that only too well! You've got one guy still on his feet as another keeps cleverly bouncing him on and off the ropes while a third lies dazed and searching for his way back onto his feet flat out on the canvas. Guess which guy happens to be the Liberal...

That brings me to a precious few self-evident propositions: if you don't believe you can win the race and feel all the way down to your toes that you are the best person for the job, don't waste any of our time by putting yourself forward for consideration.

Secondly, don't be put off by having lost your seat -- many have come in to politics with less than a sterling silver opening act -- cast your mind back to Churchill who failed to win election several times and yes, even lost his seat in Parliament. Losing is not necessarily an accurate measure of a politician, even if it often is. (I know, sounds like conscription if necessary, but not necessarily conscription. But I digress.)

I hope we won't see regional alliances in this race, as in one candidate from a particular geographic area making a deal with another. Better to reach common ground on principle and move to each other accordingly.

In the final analysis, the members will have their say along with our so-called supporters. Will the usual suspects overplay their hand in the latter category? I suspect so. Will it enhance their political credibility even among their own supporters? I think not. But some people just can't seem to help themselves...or so the story goes. Let's wait and see if past behaviour is an accurate predictor of future underhanded political conduct.

I'm hoping for a small group of contenders -- roughly half a dozen, or less. Let's vigorously mix it up, fight it out with mutual respect but also with sharp differences as to where the best direction lies for both the party and the country. Let us plant the seeds of a possible winning political theme right there in the midst of a leadership race.

And when it's over, come together as Liberals without reserve or rancor. Great and not-so-great Liberals living today have failed in their primary responsibility to heal internal division in the party. That is a terrible indictment that has hobbled us in the past. Let us FINALLY move beyond that and prove to Canadians that we are once again ready for prime time. (Otherwise, we may as well forget it even with a messianic leader.)

One more point: if we want as big a political splash as possible at the convention, common sense would seem to dictate holding the convention post-snow days in order to allow as many Liberals as possible to personally participate before the cameras. In this Liberal's mind, that does not necessarily mean April.

[updated Sun Jun 17 07:44:38 -0400 2012]

Leadership: Time For Every Liberal To Listen To His Or Her Heart, Head And Gut.

Some of you may find it odd when I tell you that my choice for Liberal leader was made quite some time ago. So far, that person is not running. But I will tell you this much -- my heart has revealed one name, my head another, while my gut (the-win-at-all-costs politico in me) goes for someone else.

Remember, this isn't rocket science. Liberals will be taking on Harper and Mulcair -- fortunately, not Macdonald and Laurier. The former two are beatable with the right leader and it can happen in the next election. Are they long odds? Absolutely. But impossible is not a word that applies here.

What I took away from today's Question Period on CTV was that Marc Garneau, Martha Hall Findlay and Dominic Leblanc are all taking a hard look at it. Perhaps they are waiting to see what Justin does and maybe not. In Garneau's case, he came right out with it saying whether Trudeau runs will not affect his decision. Brave words, if he actually dives in. Otherwise, quite meaningless.

However, I will confess it was music to my ears to hear Garneau say that he has been working for some time on his vision for the country. I'd call that a step in the right direction. Not bad to at least hear that in these early days.

It will be interested to see who announces first. You'll recall that Garneau declared before Rae that he was interested in the interim leadership position. Doubt he will do that again this time, should he run.

My advice to potential candidates: get going now and put in place a network and organization as fast as you can without actually declaring that you're in. Timing is everything in politics but good organization and early contacts are priceless.

Clearly, Justin is the unannounced front runner. He really needs to make a decision quickly. Either he's in or still out and if it's the latter, he's got to get out of the way so others can build their teams. If he's in, look for a race of less than a handful with Trudeau momentum hard to stop. That'll mean he's convinced he can win this thing and that Justin sees at least an even chance of winning back the position of opposition leader.

The only certainty -- what Trudeau decides will shape Liberal history, one way or the other.

[updated Sun Jun 17 21:03:26 -0400 2012]

First, Craig Oliver. Tonight It's David Herle.

Looks like I'm in good company. No question they've hit the nail right on the head: the majority mandate received by this government last May was indeed primarily of an economic nature. It's not a matter of whether what the Harper government is introducing as legislation was specifically discussed during the last campaign. That's not the point here. Other federal governments have moved on major priorities that no one knew anything about during or after an election.

But taken collectively, the overall parliamentary agenda moves much beyond where most Canadians sit. Prime Minister Harper is attempting to take the country bit by bit further to the right. You can only stretch the political envelope so far before electoral rebellion sets in among those who previously supported you.

This Prime Minister isn't a bit concerned. Really, how interesting! The tale of the tape may ultimately turn out quite differently than most Conservatives expect. Seat count hovering in the 140s. How much lower will it go in future polls -- and can that be turned around before the next election?

[updated Wed Jun 20 06:55:59 -0400 2012]

E-Mail Composition For Privy Council Members - Lesson One.

You know me, I always endeavour to be helpful to the poor unfortunate politicians who find themselves in positions of exalted responsibility. Consequently, I thought I would provide a lawyer's guide to writing spur-of-the-moment e-mails!

As a for instance: now, suppose the subject of your missive is not exactly held in the highest of esteem -- you could call him or her a series of nasty adjectives but better yet, opt to use a more diplomatic qualifying phrase. In Quebec, when we really want to insult someone, that person will often be referred to as an individual who self-administers in a particular nether region. But as any competent attorney will tell you, much better to adroitly suggest that the person concerned isn't exactly reliable.

Perhaps something to keep in mind for the future. (Wearing glasses or contacts can also help in some instances.)

[updated Wed Jun 20 20:30:20 -0400 2012]