National Ballot CP 35.7%, LP 29.5%, NDP 25.0%, BQ 4.9%

I would respectfully suggest you did not capture the full frustration of Canadians with the timing of your poll. This event (robocalling/vote suppression/lies) will simmer and explode in due time.

However, in the meantime, Liberal scores are truly something to take note of since it has been showing steady growth in your polling.

[updated Mon Mar 05 08:52:23 -0500 2012]

Elections Canada's announcement on Friday that they were investigating and that there had been 31,000 contacts, might have led to more public consternation, which was not caught in this survey conducted between February 25th and 29th.

Even now, the public might not be overly concerned the voter suppression charges, which I read as a sign of disengagement, apathy and the overall assumption that all politicians are capable of such activity on any given day.

Let's hope that the lack of public concern does not persuade Elections Canada that there is no merit in pursuing the investigation to the fullest.

If individuals with strong ties to a political party are convicted of a crime, I would expect that the public will finally be significantly 'concerned' and use the scandal as a factor in determining their vote (and the answer to your questions).

[updated Mon Mar 05 17:41:05 -0500 2012]

The Fix Is In: It's Romney or Bust.

Personally, I would tend to put both Romney and Bust in the same sentence. As CBS News is reporting, Mitt Romney is in endorsement heaven these days: a slew of Republicans have come out in support. Names like Cantor, Coburn, Ashcroft and most significantly, Mrs. Barbara Bush (41) who recorded a robocall in support of Romney. (That sigh you hear is all those hoping for Jeb exhaling with difficulty.)

I'd say the laying on of hands has just been performed with Mitt duly annointed as the lucky standard bearer! Now comes the hard part -- bringing independents, women and Latinos on board the Romney train. I'd say Mitt will have his work cut out for him.

In any event, I expect to see this thing basically wrapped up within a month. Watch Mitt win Ohio tomorrow, which is essential, not to mention pretty much everything between now and April 3rd when Wisconsin and Maryland will be in play along with the District of Columbia.

By the time Santorum gets to Pennsylvania on the 24th, his possible win could turn out to be nothing more than academic.

[updated Mon Mar 05 20:57:41 -0500 2012]

Who Says There's Never Any Good News In Politics!

Barack and Bibi met in the Oval Office today. Nope, no press conference was held after private talks. Quite obviously, wiser heads prevailed about the delicate matter of taking press questions. But it wasn't all bad: hey, at least they managed to mutually tolerate each other's presence. (Nothing out of Sarkozy...so far.)

[updated Tue Mar 06 06:25:15 -0500 2012]

NDP Leadership Race: Truly Mind-blowing Numbers Out Of Quebec.

Wow, I consider myself not a bad strategist but I sure did not see this one coming. The Forum Poll really takes your breath away. Please check out Éric Grenier's excellent analysis over at ThreeHundredEight.blogspot.com

[updated Wed Mar 07 21:25:32 -0500 2012]

No Need To Thank Me!

As controversy rages as to whether the Harper government is going to support an NDP motion which will provide enhanced investigative powers to Elections Canada, I thought I would add my two cents to the debate. What do we know so far? The government has signaled that it intends to support the main motion -- confusion reigns as to whether the Christopherson motion, as amended, to make it retroactive to the last election will receive all party support. And then there's the matter as to whether a non-binding Commons motion will actually be followed by government legislation to implement the proposed changes.

What do I think? So here it goes. Feel free to quote me directly:

"With this motion, we are creating a new culture of accountability that will change forever the way electoral politics is done in Ottawa."

[updated Fri Mar 09 06:15:34 -0500 2012]

Can You See Nathan Cullen Coming?

I'm willing to place a fair sized bet that political junkies across the land are not really preoccupied with tracking Robogate's daily developments. Rather, I would suggest they are looking for something else to concentrate the mind on and dare I say it, perhaps they should take a look at Nathan Cullen!

I know I'll be keeping a sharp eye on his progress in the next two weeks as we inevitably head to the NDP leadership convention which will be held in Toronto beginning on March 23rd.

Perhaps divine providence subtly waits in the wings with something interesting -- and perhaps unexpected -- for political junkies to behold. Just think back to the Progressive Conservative 1976 convention that selected Joe Clark as leader. Few saw that unexpected reality leave the train station.

It's no secret that Cullen has been picking up steam recently. Some have gone so far as to actually deduce momentum in Nathan's favour. People seem to be taking a second look and they like what they see. He must be encouraged with his level of support -- not to mention the cash being raised.

As Mitt Romney can attest, making it to the altar in a crowded field is never easy. The prospective bride, or groom, along with her or his relatives can be notoriously finicky. It's not easy measuring up to the top tier, jostling for position and anointment. Theoretically speaking, as Joe Clark found out, anything can happen.

Lightning is not known to strike twice in the same place but can it replicate its earlier performance? Stay tuned, and pay close attention, in case it does.

[updated Sun Mar 11 05:33:10 -0400 2012]

Why Obama Should Send Limbaugh Flowers!

I think we're at a turning point as it relates to the possible outcome of the presidential election in November. Rush Limbaugh's recent over-the-top comments are symptomatic of a greater problem facing Republicans this fall -- namely, the disaffection being experienced by women, Latinos and particularly independents for the Republican brand.

Republicans have one gigantic problem: collectively they allow themselves to be systematically blackmailed, cornered and held hostage by fringe groups who have never received -- and who never will receive -- a mandate from a single American voter.

In addition, most Republicans at the federal level lack...I was going to use the "b" word but will instead substitute the necessary intestinal fortitude to say No to the powers that be promoting further marginalism within their party.

Who died and made people like Rush Limbaugh, or Grover Norquist, for that matter, lord over all they survey? It's often said that the former can't really move Republicans to do anything but Limbaugh can have some success thanks to his highly honed technique of carpet bombing. As for Norquist, once you've signed his No Tax Pledge, may God help you in the next Republican primary if you even move to distance yourself from it - because no one else will.

Republicans have become nothing more than the party of cheap, amateurish, political theatre. Their focus on issues such as contraception simply boggles the mind of anyone looking to win the presidential. One has to wonder if they are actually willing to throw in the towel rather than see their eventual standard bearer, Mitt Romney, actually occupy the White House. Clearly, Romney does not cut it with the Litmus Test Crowd and frankly, he never will, as far as social conservatives and born-again Christians are concerned.

In the end, Goldwater in '64 was a monumental rout but at least they still had their principles. Right now, I'm not so sure that the next presidential election will be "as close" as most pundits seem to be predicting. If all the candidates stay in the field right to the convention in Tampa Bay, you could conceivably end up with a brokered convention -- and that surely will weaken the nominee in the general election.

Do I expect anyone else but Romney to emerge victorious at the convention? No. Will there be a draft? I doubt it. Are any of the other candidates in serious contention of taking the nomination away from Romney? I don't think so. But what will it say to the American people if Romney only gets over the top (1144) thanks to the ex officio "super" delegates? It's too late to ask President Gerry Ford but we all know how that one turned out in 1976...

[updated Sun Mar 11 20:57:23 -0400 2012]

We Aren't Known As Quebec Nationalists For Nothing.

The most recent Léger Marketing poll seems to echo the latest trend in provincial polls suggesting that PQ leader Pauline Marois will likely be the province's next premier. According to Léger, if an election was held today, 33% of voters would support Marois, 28% Premier Jean Charest and 24% the newly formed CAQ under the leadership of François Legault.

What can I tell ya -- the winds of change are blowing fiercely in Quebec and could very well put in power the province's first woman premier. Much of Quebec seems to be of a mind to give the Liberals a time out. That can't be good news for Charest who has but two unpleasant choices left open to him: go in May and risk being turned out of office or punt the ball all the way into 2013. Personally, I would not be an advocate of the latter strategy given the unfortunate experience at the federal level of Pierre Trudeau back in 1979.

Meanwhile, the federal numbers reveal that the Bloc is once again in front the pack with 31% followed by the NDP with 27%. Liberals are supported by 22% while the Conservatives bring up the rear with 14%. What conclusions can be drawn from the NDP slide? They had better learn quickly how to spell Mulcair if they want to hold on to their seats and -- the obvious lesson that all federalist parties have failed to learn over the past thirty years: get Quebec's signature on the constitution and the party that does that will get 50-60 seats in Quebec. Continue to deliberately fail to do so and Quebecers will keep breathing more and more life into the once, and ever since, frequently moribund corpse of the Bloc Québécois...

[updated Tue Mar 13 07:25:48 -0400 2012]

It's Called Splitting The Difference.

Now that common sense is finally descending upon Ottawa what with Associate Defence Minister Julian Fantino's remarks that the possible purchase of the CF-35 is under review, I thought -- oh, what the hell, why not offer a suggestion or two!

As one who has opposed the purchase of 65 Lockheed CF-35 Lightning II aircraft -- both because of cost and unsuitability for the multi-task roles that must be played by our Air Force -- I will confess however that it would be a mistake to cancel the order altogether. Given that our next fighter will be in service for the next thirty to forty years, we will definitely need a very limited number of CF-35s for joint NATO missions where interoperability with other allied air forces is both essential and highly desirable. We needed that in Bosnia and Libya and likely will require that elsewhere at some point in the future.

Now, as to our other roles: sovereignty patrols in the Artic are imperative to maintain Canadian sovereignty. That can but should not be done with a single-engine fighter. The government could stick with Lockheed and examine the CF-22 Raptor -- or if the Prime Minister (oh, excuse me, I mean the cabinet) feels exceedingly brave, we could go with the one-prototype Boeing CF-15SE Silent Eagle. Either of these fighters can be considered as fifth generation fighters and both would satisfy our NORAD requirements where interoperability for North American aerospace patrols is less crucial.

In short, go back to the drawing board and take a real hard look at the possibility of mixing and matching with a view to saving the taxpayer as much money as is humanly possible, so those savings can be used for other pressing domestic, non-military priorities.

[updated Wed Mar 14 05:35:10 -0400 2012]

It's Called Being A Progressive.

If you take a walk over to warrenkinsella.com you will see a post on Justin Trudeau's recent comments about Merger/Coalition/Co-operation. Personally, I want to congratulate Trudeau for stating the patently obvious. The only quarrel I have with his comments is his timeline...as far as I'm concerned, progressives have got to get this done within the next year. No doubt about it.

If I learned one thing from the last election it's that time and results wait for no man or woman: we are quite literally stuck with an electoral system that is designed to reinforce and entrench the status quo. Voter turnout is close to absymal and only the truly committed actually take the trouble to get off their ass on election day.

Translation: no progressive party can pull this one off all by its lonesome. There is strength in numbers and without addressing this matter, no progress will be made in the struggle to replace this government at the next election. It's as simple as that, and quite frankly, anyone who tries to tell you differently is nothing more than a clearly opportunistic fool. The streets are littered with the bodies of idiots who thought they could successfully take on Stephen Harper on their own. I should know -- I used to be one of those doofuses. But the sad reality of repeated election nights has made me see the light...and to prove it, I'm putting my feet, and more importantly, my money, where my big mouth is.

It's my turn to sit on my large duff and wait for inspiration that will persuade me to open my heart and my wallet for a just cause. Until then, I will remain missing in action. Might I suggest you follow my lead: watch the dual leadership selection processes. See who is chosen by each party and then make a judgment on the political competence of the respective incoming leaders. Put another way, say to yourselves -- is this guy or gal working as hard as possible for progressives or merely in his or her own personal political interest? What is more important to the leaders -- building an empire at the top of a party or putting the country first, ahead of all else? We've seen that test before and surprise, surprise, every single time in recent memory, a leader has failed miserably. Will they break the cycle? Wait a while and see. But don't expect miracles in a land populated by ego-driven ambition.

[updated Thu Mar 15 01:42:06 -0400 2012]