Federal Tories-Grits Statistically Tied - Tory Turbulence in Quebec

53 comments Latest by Dallas McQuarrie

Taking a look at the national numbers, the movement in voter preference is within the margin of accuracy for the poll. Check out Quebec – major turbulence for the Conservatives (down fourteen points). SES’ polling has shown that when the Conservatives focus on their five priorities their numbers move up but that the focus on Afghanistan, pulling out of Kyoto and warm relations with George Bush has noticeably eroded Conservative support in Quebec.

The main beneficiary of the Conservative drop has been the BQ (up eight points). This illustrates the appeal that the Harper-led Conservatives had among soft nationalists in Quebec.

It’s a little early for a victory lap for the Liberals. Quebec is the most volatile in support right now. The Conservatives need to hold and expand support in Quebec to stay in government, the Liberals need to win support to block the Conservatives.

The Liberal leadership will be critical to the fortunes of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. A divided Liberal party (or anything that has a whiff of inappropriate behaviour by a leadership campaign) will be good news for the Harper Conservatives. If the Liberals come out united and have a leader who can have some sort of appeal to Quebecers – they will be back in the game.

To get the stats for our national ballot visit the Supporting Material box on the right. To get our other polls visit www.sesresearch.com.

Rate, comment or respond below.

Nik

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Highest Rated Comments

In essence, Quebecers will decide the next government… and how we fare in the RO... more

gjones (Ontario) 16 Nov 06:52

I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the A... more

Johnccc (Nova Scotia) 16 Nov 08:53

I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but ... more

martin (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:02

I would suggest that focussing on electoral reform is needed, but not the most u... more

PMK (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:01

I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the A... more

Johnccc (Nova Scotia) 16 Nov 08:53

I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but ... more

martin (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:02

Comments

mathilda

Could you do "math sets '" on the liberal leadership race?Rae has said he would draw from the NDP.. but that support is falling.Kennedy has little support from Quebec and Dion little in the west. I think Rae's comments are flawed and he can' t do the math. Can you do the combinations?

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16 Nov 06:44

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gjones

In essence, Quebecers will decide the next government… and how we fare in the ROC. Strangely prescient about this Conservative Party’s agenda, with its roots in Fundamentalism rather than the party they gave their hearts to under Brian Mulroney, Quebecers have yet to be offered a reason to abandon the Bloc.

Which appears to mean minority governments in Canada for the next ten years, or at least until the Conservatives or Liberals make a mistake of such epic proportions that they drive their voters into the arms of the other.

There is no doubt that Canadian Politics is the best sport there is!

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16 Nov 06:52

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Johnccc

I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the Afghanistan problem, or I predict he will lose the next election. He needs to either pull our troops out of that country or at least move them out of Kandahar, where Canada will then be in a position to do more humanitarian work. If he does that, I am not cocerned about re-election of the government. The government is sitting on a mountain of cash to solve the fiscal imbalance and come up with an environmental plan that satisfies Quebec.

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16 Nov 08:53

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TorontoCrawler

It would be more interesting for analytical purposes if you could break up the "West" into smaller regions (e.g. B.C., Alberta, and Sask/Man.), and also if you could break up Ontario into the GTA, and the rest of the province (and perhaps the same for Quebec between Montreal and the rest). These smaller areas have widely divergent voting patterns that can't just be lumped into one big area for a more detailed analysis of possible seat results.

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16 Nov 09:59

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Jason Hickman

And while you're at it, any efforts to break down the Atlantic region into 4 provinces would be helpful.

I realize that it may not be possible to do that without having HUGE margins of error, but maybe as an alternative, you could at least tell us how many responses were received from NS vs NL vs PE vs NB out east, or MB vs SK vs AB vs BC out west.

And I'm not even gonna get into the SHOCKING absence of those 3 territories (1 seat each) from your poll ;)

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16 Nov 14:14

atin

Glad I checked the comments before going ahead and posting - at first glance I thought "Oh, not THE WEST again!" because I'm thinking BC and AB are very different but would like confirmation. Then I thought "Well, that's also true of Atlantic Canada" but, sure enough, people have already pointed this out. So consider this a trend...

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17 Nov 13:14

Nik Nanos (The Pollster)

Nik here...thanks for the note. The challenge is that we have sub-samples for some provinces that are too small and they could be quite misleading - would become more like reading entrails. For example, when we do a national sample of 1,000 voters, the Canadians from Atlantic Canada would only make up 100 interviews (proportionate to the % they make up of the population). Breaking out by province in Atlantic is difficult.

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17 Nov 13:42

Jason Hickman

Nik - That's a fair point, as much as I would prefer to see all provinces listed individually, it may not be practical.

I do still wonder whether:

(a) You could at least break "the west" into SK/MB, AB and BC - especially since BC and AB in particular have distinct political cultures from each other and from SK/MB, as well as fairly large populations; and

(b) You could list the # of respondents by province, even if you still have to sort the results by region.

Thanks for responding!

- Jason.

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17 Nov 16:16

Nik Nanos (The Pollster)

Jason - Nik here....the only real solution is to do more robust regional samples (bigger). I find in my experience in the rare occassion I reported on a small sample it just led to problems. Once SES publishes a statistic, it takes on a life and credibility of its own....and it's difficult to have what I would call a "legal disclaimer" saying the sample is very small and you should use caution. It's just the nature of the beast.

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17 Nov 16:35

kwlawson

Crawler I was thinking more of making it the Country of Western Canada, so we would not have to put of with Central Canada and the stealing of our tax dollars to appease Quebec and Bombardier all the time, Maybe BC should join the USA and not have to put up with this bloody dollar going up and down, And have Quebec bitch about it (Because they did modernize their plants)when it is up, of course a equal US dollar benefits BC and my golf is cheaper in Washington State it is only a 20 minute drive from my townhouse, you know the ones the Federal government, Central Mortgague and Housing allowed to build in Canada, but the Liberals sat on their ass, they only job when Quebec hollowers just like now.

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30 Nov 20:11

martin

I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but let's not forget the impact of some recent (smaller) events which, when added together, are changing people's impressions of the Conservative government and causing some level of disapointment: The broken promise on income trusts, the constant blaming of the previous government (like a broken record), Garth Turner's expulsion from the party, Ambrose's weak performance on the environment, an accountability act which reduces transparency, a lockdown on what MP's are allowed to say... and the list goes on.

This all adds up to a feeling that the new government is no better (and in some senses worse) than the previous government. Canadians are not stupid. They are quickly realising that the promise of a more open and democratic government was nothing more than a pipe dream.

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16 Nov 10:02

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sheila

In jumping in here, I may be seeing things too simplistically, and am perhaps being a bit naive, but shouldn't all parties be providing us with solid platforms, honourable leadership, someone with a vision of where they want to take Canada and Canadians? Shouldn't party platforms represent how we see ourselves in the world, and how we want ourselves to contribute to the world? I continually read about what one party can bring to that province, what another party can promise and supply to another province. No one province should be able to hold the rest of the country's breath, whether its in eastern, central, western or northern Canada.

Where's the leadership Canadians can trust? I think far beyond electoral reform, vote splitting, voting this to block that, promising this while taking away that, we should look at a more fundamental issue - where are the visionaries, the orators, the inspirers, the catalysts that bring all of our dreams together to continue to build a great country? Where is the leader that can capture Canadians' imaginations in being the best we can be? Why is our political climate not bringing these people forward?

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17 Nov 22:47

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Nik Nanos (The Pollster)

New Stats - Ballot by Gender.....More potential turbulence for the Conservatives. I've taken a look at the ballot by gender and it looks like the Conservatives lost most of their support over the past 90 days among men. Check out support materials - 200611 Ballot by Gender. Back in August the Conservatives had a 13 point advantage over the Liberals among men.....that advantage has been cut in half to about 6 points. This should be monitored to see if it is a longer term trend.

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20 Nov 16:25

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Jan from Whitby

Jan from Whitby,
There is nothing better for the Conservative Party of Canada and the PM to do than stay true to their principles and act accordingly.
Canadians will respond favourably to any political leadership as long as it effective and above board.

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23 Nov 07:26

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