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Federal Tories-Grits Statistically Tied - Tory Turbulence in Quebec
Taking a look at the national numbers, the movement in voter preference is within the margin of accuracy for the poll. Check out Quebec – major turbulence for the Conservatives (down fourteen points). SES’ polling has shown that when the Conservatives focus on their five priorities their numbers move up but that the focus on Afghanistan, pulling out of Kyoto and warm relations with George Bush has noticeably eroded Conservative support in Quebec.
The main beneficiary of the Conservative drop has been the BQ (up eight points). This illustrates the appeal that the Harper-led Conservatives had among soft nationalists in Quebec.
It’s a little early for a victory lap for the Liberals. Quebec is the most volatile in support right now. The Conservatives need to hold and expand support in Quebec to stay in government, the Liberals need to win support to block the Conservatives.
The Liberal leadership will be critical to the fortunes of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. A divided Liberal party (or anything that has a whiff of inappropriate behaviour by a leadership campaign) will be good news for the Harper Conservatives. If the Liberals come out united and have a leader who can have some sort of appeal to Quebecers – they will be back in the game.
To get the stats for our national ballot visit the Supporting Material box on the right. To get our other polls visit www.sesresearch.com.
Rate, comment or respond below.
Nik
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
In essence, Quebecers will decide the next government… and how we fare in the RO... more
gjones (Ontario) 16 Nov 06:52
I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the A... more
Johnccc (Nova Scotia) 16 Nov 08:53
I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but ... more
martin (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:02
I would suggest that focussing on electoral reform is needed, but not the most u... more
PMK (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:01
I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the A... more
Johnccc (Nova Scotia) 16 Nov 08:53
I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but ... more
martin (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:02
Comments
mathilda
Could you do "math sets '" on the liberal leadership race?Rae has said he would draw from the NDP.. but that support is falling.Kennedy has little support from Quebec and Dion little in the west. I think Rae's comments are flawed and he can' t do the math. Can you do the combinations?
16 Nov 06:44
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gjones
In essence, Quebecers will decide the next government… and how we fare in the ROC. Strangely prescient about this Conservative Party’s agenda, with its roots in Fundamentalism rather than the party they gave their hearts to under Brian Mulroney, Quebecers have yet to be offered a reason to abandon the Bloc.
Which appears to mean minority governments in Canada for the next ten years, or at least until the Conservatives or Liberals make a mistake of such epic proportions that they drive their voters into the arms of the other.
There is no doubt that Canadian Politics is the best sport there is!
16 Nov 06:52
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Johnccc
I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the Afghanistan problem, or I predict he will lose the next election. He needs to either pull our troops out of that country or at least move them out of Kandahar, where Canada will then be in a position to do more humanitarian work. If he does that, I am not cocerned about re-election of the government. The government is sitting on a mountain of cash to solve the fiscal imbalance and come up with an environmental plan that satisfies Quebec.
16 Nov 08:53
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RonMacD
Moving Canadian troops out of Afghanistan makes about as much sense as moving the police out of high crime areas. The Kandahar region of Afghanistan is presently not safe for humanitarian works and won't be until such time as NATO troops (Canadian, British and American) drive the Taliban out. Unfortunately, the other NATO countries haven't the balls to do the job that is required of them.
17 Nov 10:34
PMK
Ron:
I get the sense that Afghanistan is a very complex issue and that Canadians are discussing our country's invlovement in the war without a complete understanding of what's going on. I am also thinking that our government and armed forces are making decisions in the same "fog". To me the current situation speaks to a lack of lpolitical eadership - no one is asking any hard questions. I guess well have to wait til after the Liberal leadership campaign.
I am confused as to Canada's goal(s) in Afghanistan? Ensuring that the Taliban will not launch terrorist attacks against Canada/the West? (I think we've got that one fixed - also, I thought the bandit was Al Queada?). Rebuilding Afghanistan (from a pure self interest perspective I would be more concerned about pandemics coming out of Africa/Asia and would focus our rebuilding efforts in those parts of the world). Economic (one would think that the inability to build oil pipelines across the country would benefit Canada).
I would welcome your thoughts on why you we are there? and how do we know when we've accomplished what we set out to do? Thanks
17 Nov 11:16
Johnccc
Thanks PMK. It is my view that we are attacking the wrong targets, terrorists by the coalition in Iraq and NATO in Afghanistan. The target is Iran, who is developing Nukes, and who is aiding various terrorist groups. It is not our concern as to how these Islamic countries govern themselves. We can protect our security from the air and by sea, by taking out the nuke sites. We should NOT have boots on the ground anywhere. Canadians instinctively sense this, and that is why the support is lukewarm at best. Harper will lose the next election if we continue to bleed troops for a cause that cannot be won and which is of no concern to Canada.
If the Liberals win the next election, they will do just that. If you want a Conservative government as I do, then the party should start to listen to us on this issue.
There is much needed legislation, not the least of which is an elected Senate.
17 Nov 13:43
martin
The whole notion that the coalition is fighting terrorists in Iraq is beginning to lose traction. We have often heard the argument that the war in Iraq is drawing terrorists like a magnet, to a single point where we can fight them more easily (than when they're dispersed around the world).
However, most experts agree that if an Iraqi "terrorist" wanted to inflict damage on the US, he could cross the border into Syria, board a plane for New York, and carry out whatever diabolical plan he wants in a crowded shopping mall.
The point is that these are not terrorists. These individuals are either upset at the occupation (anger aimed at the coalition), or they are fighting other religious groups or political factions. Sadly, the country has sunk into a chaotic civil war. The coalition forces can't subjugate this mass uprising, and therefore must withdraw.
Johnccc is quite correct that we must protect ourselves on our own turf. Put locks on cockpit doors, improve security measures, bolster our policing tools...
Great conversation folks!
17 Nov 16:23
PMK
Given our problems in Iraq and Afghanistan, I have little faith in any pre-emptive air attacks on Iran. They would only seem to bolster domestic support for a regime that scares most everyone.
Also, I have trouble with the notion that states that acquire nuclear weapons are open to atttacks from the Western powers. If you were Iranian and saw the protection that comes from nuclear deterence (Israel), would you not want a nuclear bomb?
The West is going to have to come up with a better response to nuclear proliferation than " you can't be trusted". Seems rather subjective to me.
19 Nov 15:10
RonMacD
Afghanistan was a failed state that had been taken over by the Taliban who in turn allowed al-Qaeda to use the country as a base of operation against the West. Militant Islam is at war with any person or organization that stands in it way. Since September 11th, 2001 Islamic extremists have committed over 6,500 terrorist acts. The Canadian military is well trained, its members are well educated and have an excellent appreciation and realization of what is going on in the Middle East. Most of Afghanistan is reasonably safe; it is only the Kandahar region that is experience major terrorist activity. Aid work cannot start until such time as NATO forces can guarantee the safety of aid workers. Imagine the outcry in Canada should YouTube start showing videos of young Canadian aid workers having their heads slowly sawn off by Islamic extremists. That is exactly what would be happening if NATO forces were not in Afghanistan.
21 Nov 15:07
PMK
I don't think that Canadians, informed about what actually happening in Afghanistan, would want us to cut and run. In this way, I agree with your comment about the need to remove any opportunity for extremists to use Afghanistan as a base for terrorist activity. I don't think that you can reason/deal with extremists - there's no middle ground for them.
My concern is with the notion that we ought to invade Iran, beacuse of their nuclear ambitions.
22 Nov 10:32
Being a new recruit myself, pulling out of Afghanistan is not only making our country look like cowards, it also shows that we troops can't handle the job at task. Remember that this isn't a war going on, it is an insurgency of deep roots that uses it's own people to shield them from being ousted. Diplomacy will never be achieved if the Talibhan has its way. I realize that Canadians do not want to see soliders killed at all, but that is the most unfortunate thing in cases such as this. Our governments should use and exhaust all diplomatic resources to end the insurgency, until then our troops will stand proud and protect the people that can't protect themselves. This should never be a card to be played to gain votes in Canada, especially the Liberals. Now the leadership delagates want a time line to let Canada know when to withdraw. This is hypocritical of the Liberals, but I expect no shock at this, since they are the only party that has completely destroyed our military and its resources while in their reigns over the years, since i'm sure they will continue to do if re-elected. Lets pray not. Thank You Robini
30 Nov 13:06
TorontoCrawler
It would be more interesting for analytical purposes if you could break up the "West" into smaller regions (e.g. B.C., Alberta, and Sask/Man.), and also if you could break up Ontario into the GTA, and the rest of the province (and perhaps the same for Quebec between Montreal and the rest). These smaller areas have widely divergent voting patterns that can't just be lumped into one big area for a more detailed analysis of possible seat results.
16 Nov 09:59
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martin
I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but let's not forget the impact of some recent (smaller) events which, when added together, are changing people's impressions of the Conservative government and causing some level of disapointment: The broken promise on income trusts, the constant blaming of the previous government (like a broken record), Garth Turner's expulsion from the party, Ambrose's weak performance on the environment, an accountability act which reduces transparency, a lockdown on what MP's are allowed to say... and the list goes on.
This all adds up to a feeling that the new government is no better (and in some senses worse) than the previous government. Canadians are not stupid. They are quickly realising that the promise of a more open and democratic government was nothing more than a pipe dream.
16 Nov 10:02
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sheila
In jumping in here, I may be seeing things too simplistically, and am perhaps being a bit naive, but shouldn't all parties be providing us with solid platforms, honourable leadership, someone with a vision of where they want to take Canada and Canadians? Shouldn't party platforms represent how we see ourselves in the world, and how we want ourselves to contribute to the world? I continually read about what one party can bring to that province, what another party can promise and supply to another province. No one province should be able to hold the rest of the country's breath, whether its in eastern, central, western or northern Canada.
Where's the leadership Canadians can trust? I think far beyond electoral reform, vote splitting, voting this to block that, promising this while taking away that, we should look at a more fundamental issue - where are the visionaries, the orators, the inspirers, the catalysts that bring all of our dreams together to continue to build a great country? Where is the leader that can capture Canadians' imaginations in being the best we can be? Why is our political climate not bringing these people forward?
17 Nov 22:47
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Nik Nanos (The Pollster)
New Stats - Ballot by Gender.....More potential turbulence for the Conservatives. I've taken a look at the ballot by gender and it looks like the Conservatives lost most of their support over the past 90 days among men. Check out support materials - 200611 Ballot by Gender. Back in August the Conservatives had a 13 point advantage over the Liberals among men.....that advantage has been cut in half to about 6 points. This should be monitored to see if it is a longer term trend.
20 Nov 16:25
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Jan from Whitby
Jan from Whitby,
There is nothing better for the Conservative Party of Canada and the PM to do than stay true to their principles and act accordingly.
Canadians will respond favourably to any political leadership as long as it effective and above board.
23 Nov 07:26
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