Federal Tories-Grits Statistically Tied - Tory Turbulence in Quebec

53 comments Latest by Dallas McQuarrie

Taking a look at the national numbers, the movement in voter preference is within the margin of accuracy for the poll. Check out Quebec – major turbulence for the Conservatives (down fourteen points). SES’ polling has shown that when the Conservatives focus on their five priorities their numbers move up but that the focus on Afghanistan, pulling out of Kyoto and warm relations with George Bush has noticeably eroded Conservative support in Quebec.

The main beneficiary of the Conservative drop has been the BQ (up eight points). This illustrates the appeal that the Harper-led Conservatives had among soft nationalists in Quebec.

It’s a little early for a victory lap for the Liberals. Quebec is the most volatile in support right now. The Conservatives need to hold and expand support in Quebec to stay in government, the Liberals need to win support to block the Conservatives.

The Liberal leadership will be critical to the fortunes of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. A divided Liberal party (or anything that has a whiff of inappropriate behaviour by a leadership campaign) will be good news for the Harper Conservatives. If the Liberals come out united and have a leader who can have some sort of appeal to Quebecers – they will be back in the game.

To get the stats for our national ballot visit the Supporting Material box on the right. To get our other polls visit www.sesresearch.com.

Rate, comment or respond below.

Nik

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Highest Rated Comments

In essence, Quebecers will decide the next government… and how we fare in the RO... more

gjones (Ontario) 16 Nov 06:52

I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the A... more

Johnccc (Nova Scotia) 16 Nov 08:53

I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but ... more

martin (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:02

I would suggest that focussing on electoral reform is needed, but not the most u... more

PMK (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:01

I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the A... more

Johnccc (Nova Scotia) 16 Nov 08:53

I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but ... more

martin (Ontario) 16 Nov 10:02

Comments

mathilda

Could you do "math sets '" on the liberal leadership race?Rae has said he would draw from the NDP.. but that support is falling.Kennedy has little support from Quebec and Dion little in the west. I think Rae's comments are flawed and he can' t do the math. Can you do the combinations?

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16 Nov 06:44

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gjones

In essence, Quebecers will decide the next government… and how we fare in the ROC. Strangely prescient about this Conservative Party’s agenda, with its roots in Fundamentalism rather than the party they gave their hearts to under Brian Mulroney, Quebecers have yet to be offered a reason to abandon the Bloc.

Which appears to mean minority governments in Canada for the next ten years, or at least until the Conservatives or Liberals make a mistake of such epic proportions that they drive their voters into the arms of the other.

There is no doubt that Canadian Politics is the best sport there is!

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16 Nov 06:52

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Tim

Judging from the Quebec numbers, Ignatieff has the right leadeship strategy.

If he can strongly appeal to Quebec Liberals, and then to Quebec voters without alienating voters elsewhere by making vague promises about recognizing Quebec a a 'nation' without somehow involving the constitution, then he enhances his shot at the Liberal leadership and the PM's job. He jut has to make it sound like one thing in Quebec, and another in the ROC. Sound familiar?

Once he has the top job, the Government can deal with the resulting mess later. Well, they can try, anyway. Great for Iggy, bad for Canada IMHO.

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16 Nov 07:18

Johnccc

I don't think Mr. Ignatieff, who suffers from foot-in-mouth disease, will win the Liberal leadership race, I think Mr. Rae will, which will be good for the Tories in Ontario. They will hammer him hard on his record as premier.
Once an academic (Mr. Ignatieff) moves out of the academia classroom and into the political arena, things don't seem quite so clear cut anymore. As for Quebec as a "nation", this word has a different meaning in French than it does in English. This is the most recent example of where Mr. Ignatieff has gravely erred.
John Diefenbaker had this debate with the Liberals a long time ago. Then, it was "deux nations". He pointed out quite correctly that Canada was just one nation.

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16 Nov 09:14

PMK

I too think that Ignatieff's willingness to discuss issues will be his undoing, but I think you'd agree with me that he's been a breath of fresh air. I can't think of one thing that Bob Rae has done during this campaign that strikes me as daring, innovative or exciting. As an Ontarian, I think you are right about Mr. Rae's resonance in Ontario.

I think Canada ignores the Quebec issue at its peril and for the other Liberal candidates to say "this is not the time to discuss the matter" is an abdication of responsibility. While I was not around with Dief the chief, I lived through Meech and Charlottetown and I would be open to revisiting the issues - times change. I know one thing for sure, I don't want another referendum in Quebec.

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16 Nov 10:08

djbee

Minority governments for the next 10 years huh? Probably, but not necessarily for the reasons you might think. Unbeknownst to many, there is a growing movement for electoral reform in this country - which brings with it a desire for some form of proportion representation (see www.fairvote.ca).

You might be surprised to learn that in less then a year there's a very good chance that the people of Ontario will be voting in a referendum to completely overhaul the way we elect MPPs. (See www.citizensassembly.gov.on.ca) In BC, they'll have another vote on election system change in 2009.

Some might say it's only a matter of time before this reaches the federal level. At which point, minorities (and perhaps coalition governments) will definitely be the norm.

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16 Nov 09:28

PMK

I would suggest that focussing on electoral reform is needed, but not the most urgent priority. I would argue that we need to focus on constitutional reform that recognizes that role of cities and give them the tools needed to tackle issues like the environment and economic development. It's odd that the logic and momentum of decentralization stops at the provincial capitals. If you look at the contribution and role of Toronto, Calgary, Montreal and Vancouver to our national economy, it's baffling that the Premier of PEI has more constitutional power than the mayors of these cities.

In my opinion, focussing on federal electoral reform is akin to dealing with a symptom and not the underlying cause of Canadians malaise with our political system - the concentration of power in the hands of governments who are too far removed from the agents of change.

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16 Nov 10:01

Johnccc

I am a conservative, but not a Conservative. Mr. Harper will need to solve the Afghanistan problem, or I predict he will lose the next election. He needs to either pull our troops out of that country or at least move them out of Kandahar, where Canada will then be in a position to do more humanitarian work. If he does that, I am not cocerned about re-election of the government. The government is sitting on a mountain of cash to solve the fiscal imbalance and come up with an environmental plan that satisfies Quebec.

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16 Nov 08:53

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TorontoCrawler

It would be more interesting for analytical purposes if you could break up the "West" into smaller regions (e.g. B.C., Alberta, and Sask/Man.), and also if you could break up Ontario into the GTA, and the rest of the province (and perhaps the same for Quebec between Montreal and the rest). These smaller areas have widely divergent voting patterns that can't just be lumped into one big area for a more detailed analysis of possible seat results.

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16 Nov 09:59

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martin

I believe Afghanistan and foreign policy may be having an effect in Quebec, but let's not forget the impact of some recent (smaller) events which, when added together, are changing people's impressions of the Conservative government and causing some level of disapointment: The broken promise on income trusts, the constant blaming of the previous government (like a broken record), Garth Turner's expulsion from the party, Ambrose's weak performance on the environment, an accountability act which reduces transparency, a lockdown on what MP's are allowed to say... and the list goes on.

This all adds up to a feeling that the new government is no better (and in some senses worse) than the previous government. Canadians are not stupid. They are quickly realising that the promise of a more open and democratic government was nothing more than a pipe dream.

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16 Nov 10:02

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sheila

In jumping in here, I may be seeing things too simplistically, and am perhaps being a bit naive, but shouldn't all parties be providing us with solid platforms, honourable leadership, someone with a vision of where they want to take Canada and Canadians? Shouldn't party platforms represent how we see ourselves in the world, and how we want ourselves to contribute to the world? I continually read about what one party can bring to that province, what another party can promise and supply to another province. No one province should be able to hold the rest of the country's breath, whether its in eastern, central, western or northern Canada.

Where's the leadership Canadians can trust? I think far beyond electoral reform, vote splitting, voting this to block that, promising this while taking away that, we should look at a more fundamental issue - where are the visionaries, the orators, the inspirers, the catalysts that bring all of our dreams together to continue to build a great country? Where is the leader that can capture Canadians' imaginations in being the best we can be? Why is our political climate not bringing these people forward?

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17 Nov 22:47

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Nik Nanos (The Pollster)

New Stats - Ballot by Gender.....More potential turbulence for the Conservatives. I've taken a look at the ballot by gender and it looks like the Conservatives lost most of their support over the past 90 days among men. Check out support materials - 200611 Ballot by Gender. Back in August the Conservatives had a 13 point advantage over the Liberals among men.....that advantage has been cut in half to about 6 points. This should be monitored to see if it is a longer term trend.

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20 Nov 16:25

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Jan from Whitby

Jan from Whitby,
There is nothing better for the Conservative Party of Canada and the PM to do than stay true to their principles and act accordingly.
Canadians will respond favourably to any political leadership as long as it effective and above board.

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23 Nov 07:26

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