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Federal Tories lead by 10 points - CTV/Globe/Nanos Tracking (completed Oct 2)

4 comments Latest by Lex Llewdor

Announcement

Nanos and CTV News are pleased to launch “Ahead of the Curve with Nanos & CTV” - a blog that will feature analysis and commentary on a wide variety of topics. Today’s post is “The reign of incumbents”. Bookmark http://nanos.ctv.ca to read this and future blog topics.

Our latest tracking numbers

The latest Globe/CTV/Nanos tracking poll on the federal political scene shows that the Conservatives continue to enjoy their ballot box advantage, the Liberals are up slightly and the NDP are down. The latest national ballot stands at 39.0% for the Tories, 29.0% for the NDP, 24.5% for the Liberals and 2.9% for the Greens (support for the Bloc gained slightly, at 3.5% nationally and 14.4% in Quebec).

Harper retains a double-digit advantage over the other federal party leaders on trust, vision and competence. Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae has gained a slight edge over interim NDP Leader Nycole Turmel on competence (14.2% of Canadians for Rae, 9.2% for Turmel), while the two are statistically tied on trust and vision for Canada.

More Canadians are seeing jobs and the economy as their most important national issue of concern, surpassing healthcare for the first time since (jobs/economy number one issue 31.9%, healthcare 28.2%).

Methodology Between September 25th and October 2nd, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,209 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,209 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 968 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Results for August 2011 are from a random telephone survey of 1,210 Canadians conducted between August 29th and September 1st, 2011. A random telephone survey of 1,210 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from August 2011 (n=939). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=968 committed voters)

  • Conservative 39.0% (-0.5)
  • NDP 29.0% (-4.1)
  • Liberal 24.5% (+3.8)
  • Bloc Quebecois 3.5% (+0.9)
  • Green 2.9% (-0.5) *Undecided 19.9% (-2.5)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from August 2011 (n=1,015).

  • Jobs/economy 31.9% (+5.6)
  • Healthcare 28.2% (-2.6)
  • Education 8.0% (+1.3)
  • The environment 5.3% (-0.1)
  • High taxes 3.7% (-1.3)
  • Unsure 5.5% (-2.6%)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada. (n=1,209)

Readers should note that Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe are no longer on the Leadership Index tracking.

Leadership Index Score

  • Stephen Harper 114.2
  • Bob Rae 39.1
  • Nycole Turmel 34.5
  • Elizabeth May 12.5

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,209)

  • Stephen Harper 36.5%
  • None: 17.1%
  • Unsure: 16.4%
  • Bob Rae 12.9%
  • Nycole Turmel 11.9%
  • Elizabeth May 5.1%

The Most Competent Leader (n=1,209)

  • Stephen Harper 40.9%
  • Unsure: 18.3%
  • None: 14.3%
  • Bob Rae 14.2%
  • Nycole Turmel 9.2%
  • Elizabeth May 3.1%

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,209)

  • Stephen Harper 36.8%
  • Unsure: 19.0%
  • None: 14.5%
  • Nycole Turmel 13.4%
  • Bob Rae 12.0%
  • Elizabeth May 4.3%

What do you think?

Get the new free Nanos iPhone app at http://bit.ly/nanosapp

Cheers,
NJN

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HC in AB

Yawn.....

[updated Wed Oct 12 21:41:52 -0400 2011]

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12 Oct 21:41

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Donald Bruce Smith

The results for the Most Trustworthy Leader, The Most Competent Leader and The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future this is the most telling aspect of the poll.

Given that the LPC, GRN and NDP leaders cannot poll above the None: 17.1% and unsure: 16.4% Bob Rae 12.9% , Nycole Turmel 11.9% and Elizabeth May 5.1% for The Most Trustworthy Leader.

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future the LPC, GRN and NDP leaders cannot poll above the Unsure: 19.0%, None: 14.5%, Nycole Turmel 13.4%, Bob Rae 12.0% and Elizabeth May 4.3%

The Most Competent Leade LPC, GRN and NDP leaders cannot poll above the Unsure: 18.3%, None: 14.3%, Bob Rae 14.2% ,Nycole Turmel 9.2% and Elizabeth May 3.1%

...

[updated Thu Oct 13 16:59:07 -0400 2011]

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13 Oct 16:59

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