The Conservatives’ post election glow has faded somewhat, with support returning to its previously normal level in the mid to high 30s. Despite this, support for the Conservatives remains significantly higher than for other parties - the New Democrats and the Liberals are tied in the mid 20s range.
The NDP continues to enjoy strong support in Quebec, although this has also come down in view of Jack Layton’s recent health news, adding fuel to the view that the NDP’s ballot box support in May was largely a Layton phenomenon.
Meanwhile, the Tory post election drop in support has occurred when the government was less focused on the economy and more focused on issues like crime and cancelling the long gun registry. In the same period Liberal support increased five points nationally. However, interim Liberal leader Bob Rae’s leadership numbers remain very weak, suggesting that the increase in Liberal support is likely more about the party being a parking place for voters in light of current Conservative policy focus.
Healthcare retained and strengthened its place as the top national unprompted issue of concern.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Retrouvez les tableaux détaillés ainsi que les notes méthodologiques sur notre site web en français où vous pouvez également vous inscrire afin de recevoir des mises à jours regulières sur nos sondages.
Methodology
Between July 25th and August 2nd, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For 1,015 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Results for June 2011 are from a random telephone survey of 1,211 Canadians conducted between June 16th and 19th, 2011. A random telephone survey of 1,211 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from June 2011 (n=983).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.
Canada (n=1,015 committed voters)
Conservative 36.2% (-5.6)
Liberal 27.0% (+4.7)
NDP 26.8% (-1.2)
Green 4.5% (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 4.4% (+1.0)
*Undecided 15.6% (-3.2)
Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]
*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from June 2011 (n=983).
Healthcare 33.0% (+7.3)
Jobs/economy 23.0% (-0.9)
Education 6.3% (-2.6)
The environment 5.7% (-2.9)
Debt/deficit 5.0% (+0.9)
Unsure 9.0% (+3.5)
Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: (n=1,203)
Readers should note that both Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe have been dropped from the Leadership Index tracking.
Leadership Index Score
Jack Layton 88.5
Stephen Harper 86.9
Bob Rae 25.6
Elizabeth May 8.7
The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,203)
Jack Layton 32.7%
Stephen Harper 25.9%
Bob Rae 8.4%
Elizabeth May 3.9%
None: 10.1%
Unsure: 19.0%
The Most Competent Leader (n=1,203)
Stephen Harper 32.3%
Jack Layton 25.9%
Bob Rae 9.4%
Elizabeth May 1.9%
None: 7.7%
Unsure: 22.8%
The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,203)
Jack Layton 29.9%
Stephen Harper 28.7%
Bob Rae 7.8%
Elizabeth May 2.9%
None: 8.3%
Unsure: 22.4%
Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”.
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What do you think?
Cheers,
Nik
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
On the basis of this poll, it would not be a pipe dream to suggest that the NDP ... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Aug 12:44
I am not going back to the future. During the minority government eveybody pro a... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 08 Aug 19:06
hollinm, It always depends on what poll you are you are reading as shown by ano... more
Donald Bruce Smith (Ontario) 20 Aug 19:17
On the basis of this poll, it would not be a pipe dream to suggest that the NDP ... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Aug 12:44
I am not going back to the future. During the minority government eveybody pro a... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 08 Aug 19:06
Comments
Tom Good
On the basis of this poll, it would not be a pipe dream to suggest that the NDP may well become the future Government of Canada. Given Layton's health and his interim replacement, I doubt this will happen,
For future elections, it would be very desirable that there be two strong national parties.
In BC we have two parties at present, the governing "Liberals" really Conservatives with Premier Christy Campbell---excuse me Premier Christy Clark---- and the NDP with Adrian Dix. A two party slug fest is a much better indicator of the public will / interest for the future and a better indicator about the past performance of the government who called the election..
[updated Mon Aug 08 12:44:34 -0400 2011]
08 Aug 12:44
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
I am not going back to the future. During the minority government eveybody pro and con Conservative commented breathlessly on every poll. I do not intend to play this game again.
We are hardly into a four year MAJORITY Conservative government mandate. The polls will go up and will go down. The media needs this type of political controversy so they can keep their columnists like the gossipy Jane Taber busy. However, whether the Conservatives are up or down has no relevance. The Harper government is in power and no poll is going to change that. It is Mr. Harper's to win or lose the next election.
However, to conduct a poll in the dead of summer is a waste of time and money. I have a lot of respect for Nik but this poll is absolutely not credible. Anybody who believes that people are permanently flocking to the Libs does not reflect the reality of the country.
[updated Mon Aug 08 19:06:25 -0400 2011]
08 Aug 19:06
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.