Monday, May 20, 2013 - (47082 comments)

Canadians polarized on idea of Harper majority (April 18)

98 comments Latest by Lex Llewdor

To follow are the new leadership and issue numbers plus new research on Canadians’ comfort with a Harper majority.

Leadership Index and Top Issue


With a score of 110.6 on yesterday’s daily Nanos Leadership Index, Harper now enjoys a 51 point advantage over Jack Layton who has been holding the second position on the Index for the last eight days. Ignatieff remains in third place.

On the issue front, healthcare remained the top unprompted issue of concern (at 31.5%), followed by jobs/the economy (25.7%), education (7.3%), the environment (4.7%), and high taxes (4.2%).

Comfort with a Harper Majority

Research suggests that Canadians remain polarized on the idea of a Harper majority even after weeks of federal election campaigning. Fourty-six percent of Canadians were uncomfortable/somewhat uncomfortable with the idea of a Harper majority while 43% of Canadians were comfortable/somewhat comfortable.

One change is that the intensity of those comfortable with a majority has increased from 26% to 31% but the overall “Harper majority comfort pool” has declined from 48% to 43% over the past two months. Also of note, the percentage of Canadians who were undecided on this measure has increased from four to 11% suggesting that the campaign will have an influence on voters judgment on the Harper majority question.

In terms of the regions, Canadians in the Prairies registered the greatest comfort with the idea (63% comfortable/somewhat comfortable compared to 43% nationally). Quebec was the one region with the strongest resistance to a Harper majority (66% were uncomfortable or somewhat uncomfortable compared to 46% nationally). In battleground Ontario, the outright comfort with a Harper majority has increased from 24% to 34% in the past 60 days, reinforcing the trend showing a Conservative advantage in Ontario at this point in the campaign.

What do you think?

Cheers,

Nik

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on www.nanosresearch.com where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Retrouvez les tableaux détaillés ainsi que les notes méthodologiques sur notre site web en français où vous pouvez également vous inscrire afin de recevoir des mises à jours regulières sur nos sondages.

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Highest Rated Comments

I am EXTREMELY uncomfortable with a Harper majority. In fact the thought is the ... more

Matagemasi (Ontario) 20 Apr 06:43

If Harper gets a majority you'll see a better government. In my opinion this wil... more

Earl in London (Ontario) 20 Apr 01:37

To not accept Quebec as Canadian, and part of Canada, seems to be totally out o... more

Matagemasi (Ontario) 20 Apr 18:22

To not accept Quebec as Canadian, and part of Canada, seems to be totally out o... more

Matagemasi (Ontario) 20 Apr 18:22

Why do people think this election was caused by anybody but the guy who was at h... more

larryl (Ontario) 21 Apr 14:54

Harper wanted this election. He has been longing for a majority. First he saw h... more

Bernie (Ontario) 21 Apr 16:16

Comments

Earl in London

If Harper gets a majority you'll see a better government. In my opinion this will be Harpers last campaign.He will see his term through and prior to this time in 2015 he will announce his retirement. He will want to leave with a legacy that is much better than Mulroney's or Chretien's.

[updated Wed Apr 20 01:37:35 -0400 2011]

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20 Apr 01:37

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Matagemasi

I am EXTREMELY uncomfortable with a Harper majority. In fact the thought is the only thing that has ever made want to leave Canada. In the last year I have learned to feel ashamed of my country, my policiticians, and now, my people - for I find myself in complete and utter disbelief of their simplistic understanding of their own political system, their short sightedness and willingness to be bribed, and their blindness to the nature of the person they seem determiend to elect. Mr. Ignatieff, on the other hand, has run and continues to run an excellent and fair campaign. How on earth do we have a society that naivley believes those Conservative ads? Bravo Iggy - and the Liberals. YOU are doing what you need to do with style and grace, fervour and decency. This to me is what being Canadian is all about.

[updated Wed Apr 20 06:43:25 -0400 2011]

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20 Apr 06:43

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Bernie

I would be extremely uncomfortable with a Harper majority, and that's putting it very mildly.
Canada has been protected from being a disaster because of the opposition If Harper had a majority he would have no constraints on forwarding his agenda. That would be disastrous for Canada. If Ignatieff, Layton, May or Ducppe were PM I would have less concern. Even a Conservative run by Hugh Segal or Chuck Strahl I would not have worries about. But absolutely NOT Harper.

[updated Wed Apr 20 15:42:43 -0400 2011]

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20 Apr 15:42

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Larry Maheu

He earned a majority with a proven track record. Even Jim Flaherty was a vigilant watchman on the banks, and two had to be corrected from subprime mortgages involvement.
This is a no brainer. The coalition hates Mr. Harper and another coalition isn't going to change that.
It isn't easy to stay in power when a gang of three are nipping at your heels, not because you're doing a bad job, but because you're doing too good a job and it'll keep the opposition out of power too long for their liking.
Of all the dozens of good things the government has done, despite all the delays , including from the Liberal dominated Senate, it has never received one iota of credit from the media or the opposition.
It's time Canadians showed their appreciation for a job well done.
ABC??? yes, anything but coalition. Give the guy a chance for the sake of Canada, or all the benefits will be reversed, as has been said.

[updated Wed Apr 20 16:48:42 -0400 2011]

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20 Apr 16:48

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Donald Bruce Smith

There is an old saying, if you want to see how the election is going just follow the leaders.

Harper was and still is going to ridings that the CPC has targeted as being winnable.

Layton is is going to LPC and Bloc ridings that the NDP has targeted as being winnable and to ridings that the CPC believes to be winnable.

Duceppe, is going to ridings that the NDP and CPC has targeted as being winnable and to LPC ridings.

Ignatieff is going to ridings that were once considered safe in ONT, BC, North, MAN, NFLD, QUE and is not going to ridings that the party had targeted as being winnable.

[updated Wed Apr 20 17:47:08 -0400 2011]

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20 Apr 17:47

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Donald Bruce Smith

The Federalists in Quebec consider themselves to be Canadian.

Those who support the Bloc do not, because the Bloc who by their own terms defination and practices do not see themselves as being Canadian.

Now back out the Bloc support from the calculations (somewaht uncomfortable 24.8% and uncomfortable 40.7%), would not the number do a major shift away from Canadians being comfortable with a CPC majority.

The whole Quebec numbers just add a weight that is not seen in the rest of Canada and drives the numbers done nationally.

[updated Wed Apr 20 17:55:48 -0400 2011]

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20 Apr 17:55

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KRI

Western Separation will be back on the table if Harper doesn't get a majority government and the 3 Losing Parties form a coalition with the Bloc!
Can Canada survive without the WEST???

[updated Thu Apr 21 01:51:31 -0400 2011]

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21 Apr 01:51

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Blackacadian

I love to read the posts on this site from time to time. Now that I'm done with another semester at my university, I might have more of a chance to reply to some of the more regular commentors, but my summer job is already calling me. Those are just a few of the things going on in my life in the real world compared to my virtual endeavors like social networking, online gaming (Xbox 360, PS3, MMORPGs) or this. Just like me, more young canadians, of voting age, are starting to realize that the elections are coming to an end and virtual participation does NOT count. So, this is the time where the ealy undecided voters start to make up their minds.

Many might think that political apathy will be here to stay and that low voter turnouts will be the new accepted normal in Canada, but I beg to differ. As a PROUD canadian francophone, I like to get into political conversations with friends from quebec on my campus. And most of them say about the same thing. It's either a vote for the Bloc because of seperatism or a vote for the Bloc for a better progressive alternative for the province.

Now this part is just MY perception of the latest events:

The hardcore seperatist mostly tend to be older Parizeau leftovers and a few gullible younger voters who fell for their once well organized youth PR program. Separatists even went to the point of pushing their message with the help of french rappers (Loco Locas). However, that movement is getting older each year and its real appeal to my generation is getting stale.

The other group is the one making the buzz right now. In masses, they are shifting for the NDP, because of ONE main thing. VOTE MOBS. Yes, the untold story of these elections affects younger quebecers the most directly. They are faced with being on the outside of a very popular movement on campuses across Canada. When those students see or participate at those large events they feel what we all do. Inclusion. That is one thing that the Bloc can't give them and they know it.

Seperation is advantagious for Quebec when times are good. Not when we are going through this uncertain recession with the US getting close to defaulting on their debt. It's like the scared teenager, in any typical horror movie, who decides to seperate from the group in order to veer off into the woods alone. We all know happens next. On top of that, the new "country" would have to guarantee a lower corporate tax rate in order to get large enough support from big Quebec businesses. However, quebecers LOVE their social programs. So, in my opinion, separatism is just a fools dream.

BTW It makes me laugh when some say that there is a liberal bias in mainstream news media. Sun TV seems to be the ONLY news organisation with the BALLS to take the government into account for the mass arrests during the G20 nowadays. The rest of them seem to be suffering from some sort of ADD. Some of the stuff on Sun TV is horrendous, but in general it isn't as bad as I thought. At least, it's good enough to give them a chance.

[updated Thu Apr 21 13:26:17 -0400 2011]

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21 Apr 13:26

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elizabeth3

The Opposition wanted this election. Millions of us did not. I'm quite happy with PM Harper...from a BC voter.

[updated Thu Apr 21 13:40:22 -0400 2011]

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21 Apr 13:40

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CanadianSenior

I am very uncomfortable with the idea of a Harper majority due to the simple fact that he has absolutely no qualms about he and his party not having any respect for the citizens of this great country. Not only do I think he should not even get a minority, I think he should be sent packing by his own party.
Harper came to my city recently and the general public was not allowed to even get in to see him or ask him any questions whatsoever. In fact, the only people allowed in were those who were supporting the local tory candidate. This made it look like everyone loved the guy when in fact, the protestors outside were not given equal time on the local TV broadcasts. Obviously Harper is afraid to meet the voters and he is definitely leery of having to actually any questions from the public regarding his 'contempt of the Canadian parliament' charge. I truly believe that Harper can never ever be trusted with a majority when he wont even answer questions from the general public.
He and his party are always taking the credit for the economy in Canada but we all know that we were in better shape at the beginning of this recent problem and that is one of the main reasons we came out of it in fairly good shape - It had NOTHING to do with Harper or his government but they keep feeding us lies and we are supposed to believe him. Maybe they believe that if they tell a big enough lie to enough people for long enough, it will make the lie become truth? People in Canada will see their country go down the drain if the tory party gets a majority .... mark my words, everyone will see a totally different Canada and it wont be a better one!

[updated Wed Apr 27 09:41:10 -0400 2011]

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27 Apr 09:41

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