Harper ahead but takes a one day hit on trust

Nik,

Good work with the Leadership Index. It is a very good tool as you note. It will be interesting how this one day shift blends with the debate tonight and Wednesday. Its quite an interesting time to see this happen going into the debates.

[updated Wed Apr 13 00:15:01 -0400 2011]

I don't know it was quite clear to me who won land slide win definately Harpers Conservatives the debate to me looked like are future circus of Parliament we definately need Conservative Majority by far :) go Harper go he's got my vote :)

[updated Wed Apr 13 10:49:22 -0400 2011]

I don't care about leadership. A leader dictates his own terms. He tells his followers what to think. I would never allow another to do the thinking for me.
I want a politician to do what the majority of people want him to do, not what he wants to do.

[updated Wed Apr 13 16:44:38 -0400 2011]

A good night for Harper, I think; not outstanding but did what he had to do. Iggy failed just about the whole evening. Jack likely got back some votes he had been losing and Duceppe didn't care. I noticed Iggy and Gilles never went at each other. I think - as much as I get upset with Harper by times - that we need a Harper majority to ensure the separatists don't hold the balance of power!

[updated Wed Apr 13 19:54:14 -0400 2011]

Spoiler warning..........I understand that the conservatives are very popular in Alberta. However, simply wishing for a majority won't make dreams come true. Preaching to the converted on the electoral trail won't help either. Harper will have to face the fact that he might NOT win the majority that he wants. The latest booooooring debates pushed any hopes for a majority out of the reach of ALL party. The real problem will arise after the votes are counted, the party is over and all the confetti is on the floor. If Harper wins with minority, he WILL lose in parlement due to the remaining issue of lack of confidence. There is no way that any MP from the opposition parties could support the conservatives after all of their divisive political attacks. Unknowingly, Harper actually helped Ignatieff. If the liberal party are to present an alternative to the governor general, the NDP will NOT be part of any coalition government. The NDP will be forced to chose between supporting a conservative minority or a liberal minority WITHOUT having the chance of getting within the government's caucus.

That's the next real political issue beyond the elections. That and the reaction to the unconstitutionality of the federal medical marijuana program by an Ontario court.

[updated Thu Apr 14 16:35:11 -0400 2011]

Globe and Mail "NDP surges after debate while Liberal support stays stagnant"

So what do we see if we take off the Globes Liberal glasses view of Mr. Nanos numbers?

1) The CPC still leads the LPC Nationally by 7.8% and is tracking over the poll results from the day the writ was dropped? +0.3% and is +1.3% over their 2008 election results.

2) LPC support has flat lined since 04/04 at 30.0% to 31.0%, but the LPC is +3.5% since the writ was dropped. - however their growth seems to be centralized in the Urban areas of Vancouver 4 seats, Ottawa 3 seats, the GTA 32 seats , Montreal 13 seats and while this increase in support may well secure those seats for the LPC, it will not generate more seats in those regions for their Party.

3) The NDP has regained 4% to 5% of the support that they lost since 04/08 and are now above their 2008 elections results

4) The CPC lead in BC, PRA, and ATL and are the second choice in QUE, but are the leading Federalist Party in QUE and that the CPC and the LPC are polling within the MOE of +/-5.6 in ONT.

I really do not see where the LPC and their supporters have much if any reason to start to have a party.

ATL
CPC 04/12 46.6% 04/13 49.3%,
LPC 04/12 40.2% 04/13 35.6%,
NDP 04/12 12.0% 04/13 14.0%,
...
QUE
CPC 04/12 23.1% 04/13 23.9%,
LPC 04/12 16.0% 04/13 19.7%,
NDP 04/12 46.6% 04/13 49.3%,
BLO 04/12 38.6% 04/13 32.5%,
...
PRA
CPC 04/12 53.9% 04/13 51.3%,
LPC 04/12 24.2% 04/13 26.8%,
NDP 04/12 18.7% 04/13 18.5%,
...
BC
CPC 04/12 42.0% 04/13 40.8%,
LPC 04/12 32.3% 04/13 28.7%,
NDP 04/12 17.1% 04/13 22.4%,

[updated Thu Apr 14 17:46:07 -0400 2011]

My personal preference is that when I count to 10, I do not start at any number other than 1 (March 15th) and most definitely I do not start counting from 8 (April 10th) in this case as that distorts the actual trends.
March 15th Mr. Harpers score was 82.8, April 12 94.9 up 12.1

March 15th Mr. Layton score was 51.4, April 12 57.1 or up 5.7

March 15th Mr. Ignatieff score was 39.7, April 12 49.6 up 9.9

[updated Thu Apr 14 18:04:13 -0400 2011]

One final point, while Parliament may choose the Government, Parliament is chosen by the Canadian people with the expectations that the Parliament will chose the Government with the mandate from the people and not the mandate that the three parties failed to get in the election.

[updated Thu Apr 14 18:26:22 -0400 2011]

"Harper’s leadership rating jumps after debate – but will he hit ‘glass ceiling’?"

At 122.8 Mr. Harper is at his highest level and is up 40 points over his March 15th number of 82.8 and that since that date, Mr. Harper has improved his leadership rating several times climbing over the 100 mark on 10 occassion.

Measure that against the fact that his worst score is 82.8 which is still 30.1 point better than Mr. Ignatieff best score.

With Ignatieff sitting last, trailing with 52.7 or 70.1 points behind, and has yet to cross the 60 point level in leadership rankings.

So I would ask, just why would Mr. Harper worry about a "glass ceiling" and not Mr. Ignatieff or Mr. Layton.
.

[updated Fri Apr 15 01:05:35 -0400 2011]

I first want to say that I totally love this site with just a few suggestions Nik. I got an email that stated that someone had replied or responded to a comment I made a while ago. I clicked on the link provided but it did not bring me to the response at all. Where is it and how do I find it? Thanks.

As for the above, I think that Harper and Ignatief are both trying to pull the wool over our eyes. I would never vote NDP today due to the way our local member has went against the local views on the gun registry for one thing. That leaves me only the green party which I know will do absolutely nothing since it is very unlikely that they will even get a seat in the next Government.
I just wish that we had a 're-call' mechanism in Canada so we could fire those politicians who steal our votes when they are on the campaign trail only to totally disregard those same promises after they get elected. No matter what they promise, there always seems to be some reason that they can never fulfill their promises after they have stolen our votes and this simply MUST stop now.
As for Harper, I simply do not trust him to even consider giving his party my vote. I met with Ignatief when he was in town a long time ago and he just does not seem to get the point that he was in Northern Ontario at the time. The issues we face up here are entirely different from those issues he is used to down in Southern Ontario.
Our local member is Tony Martin and he always seems to take credit for things that he has done absolutely nothing with or for to help bring that particular thing to our area. Most of the people here simply vote for Tony because he is 'likeable' or a 'nice guy' but recently our perception of him has changed drastically due to the way he has voted on many issues in the HOC.
Anyways, I know I got off topic but I did not know where else to give you these comments. My grandson got this computer for me and I am not computer literate in many ways ha ha. Hope this is ok.
Your Friend,
Canadian Senior

[updated Fri Apr 15 08:28:29 -0400 2011]

WRT trust, I am disheartened that the unprincipled and anti-democratic behaviour of the Conservative government has not had more traction as an issue in this election and negatively affected the polling numbers of the Conservative Party or Harper as leader.

I voted Conservative/Reform the last four elections because I felt that fiscal conservatism was the way to go in uncertain economic times, Harper seemed like a "reasonable fellow, and because I was appalled by the Liberal Sponsorship Scandal.

This last term, I have been horrified at the undemocratic activities of the Conservative Party in Government and the trampling of their own ethics guidelines and the deliberate hiding of their agenda and practices (as opposed to the transparency they promised us). I will not vote Conservative again until I am certain that a man of principles is in place and the party restored to an ethical base (if that can ever happen...I am not optimistic).

So, I will be holding my nose and voting Liberal, strictly strategically, in the hopes of defeating the Cambridge, Ontario, Conservative candidate, Gary Goodyear, and, by extension, the Harper cabal. I am not a huge fan of the Liberals, but I am hoping that, at this point, they are the lesser of two evils.

Here are a few of the reasons I will NOT vote Conservative this election (this was in alphabetical order but I had to add another one due to the University of Guelph fiasco):

1. Afghan detainee abuse and handing over to torturers

2. Allowing only 5 questions by journalists per "campaign stop"

3. Being perfectly willing to form a coalition when it’s in their best interests but saying that any other party doing it is reckless

4. Bruce Carson - fraudster becomes PM adviser

5. Calling anti-democratic activities “process issues”

6. Defunding political parties’ remuneration based on the number of votes they get (starving the opposition)

7. End of the mandatory long-form census

8. Failure to acknowledge global climate change as an issue, making Canada a laughing stock at Climate Summits and winner of the Fossil Award

9. Failure to provide Canadians abroad with adequate consular services or and inadequate investigations into murders abroad (Mexico/Iraq/etc.)

10. Failure to secure a seat at the UN Security Council

11. Grotesque spending at G8/G20, failure to provide decent security despite overwhelming police presence and spending, failure to adequately compensate business affected by the shutdown of the downtown core.

12. Handing police extraordinary (and secret) measures at G8/G20 Summit

13. Highest deficit ever!

14. In and out scandal – playing shell games with election finances

15. In contempt of parliament

16. Lifting quotes from 9/11 AG report to make it look like they handled G8/G20 well

17. Lowering of corporate taxes while personal taxes go up

18. Muzzling of Environment Canada scientists re Global Climate Change

19. No bid contracts (fighter jets)

20. Prorogation - twice

21. Smearing of whistle blowers (Richard Colvin)

22. Spending of Canadian tax dollars in prior close-call ridings ($50 million in Huntsville, currently a Conservative riding)

23. Stacking the Senate with Conservative cronies despite stating that it should be abolished or triple-E...total hypocrisy.

24. Turfing of people from rallies because of their Facebook pictures - OMG!

25. Use of government funds to tout "Conservative" achievements – putting Conservative logo on government cheques and awards

26. Using flunkies to contort democracy (Bev Oda affair/Jason Keney affair)

27. Using Ministerial stationary and resources for promotion of the Conservative Party (Jason Kenney affair)

27. Withholding information from parliament (Bev Oda, fighter jets, cost of prisons, Afghan detainee issue, etc.)

28. Attempting to disenfranchise student votes (University of Guelph special ballot)

[updated Sat Apr 16 20:25:08 -0400 2011]

I am a born Canadian and a retiree . I was totally surprised on what skeletons came out of the closets of the Harper government lately. Harper should of been booted out ,in my opinion for being so secretive in all what has happened. Liberals were not much better when they were in power .
I pay my taxes . I think all politicians should clean up their act and not be full of *.%* .There has to be a change here .
I think there should be a "Coalition"here . At least there will be a better Government of being fair and everyone will watch each other to see if there is corruption , fraud etc and a cleaner government.

[updated Sun Apr 17 20:03:46 -0400 2011]

More Lies My Harper Told Me: Liberals Want $75 iPod Tax

Simply ain't true my well-informed brothers and sisters!

Here's a link for ya...unfortunately it's not accredited by a Supreme Curt ruling certifying it as THE TRUTH, so you you will have to use your own judgment and common sense (we all have those faculties, right?), to determine the truthiness of it all, Conservative shills notwithstanding.

And beware, the Cons (can I call them "Cons," I think I can) feel that any media outlet that dares to question their policies or practices must be the "Lamestream Media," or owned by commie-loving, socialist pinkos (I know, I know, it's redundant...but there ya go) with an anti-Canadian agenda, and unpatriotic to boot. Judge for yourselves.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110415/fact-check-ipod-tax2-110416/20110416?s_name=election2011&no_ads=

[updated Sun Apr 17 22:20:23 -0400 2011]

After not voting in the past two Federal elections ... I feel inclined to vote this year. I simply can't justify why I should vote for the Tories, OR the Libs ... Seriously... What have we had to look forward to over the past few years? More wars, More corporate tax cuts... more scandals... So sick of this ... Canada adopting American values is what prompted me to hit a poling station this year and I cannot bring myself to check a box for a hypocritical government who cares very little about Canadians and cares an AWFUL lot about .. well .. oil? Making rich people richer while they outsource our jobs and laugh in the faces of struggling Canadians... Oh but they need a Majority government to overcome what they've set as their face value ... ridiculous. I am not a drug user, nor am I lazy, I work hard and provide for my family. I will vote based on platforms and as I see it there is only one platform that will help ME .. the average Canadian .. so be it. What choice does a person have and what are people so afraid of? Politicians are politicians .... everyone knows that.. and everyone has seen what a HORRIBLE state Canada is in ... Why not try something new? Or you can always vote for some new jets and more corporate tax cuts.. because that's what we really need... I simply cannot believe people are polling for a conservative majority .. completely ludicrous .. Get real people.

[updated Mon Apr 18 17:35:57 -0400 2011]