Although Conservative support remains strong at 39.1%, nationally support has moved away from the NDP to the Liberals in the latest nightly tracking survey. Liberal support is up four points while NDP support is down from 19.6% to 15.9%. The Liberals realized gains, particularly in the Prairies, in the wake of Michael Ignatieff’s Western tour. Support for the NDP was down in all regions numerically but within the regional margins of error.
The Nanos tracking has the Conservatives nationally at 39.1%, followed by the Liberals at 32.7%, the NDP at 15.9%, the BQ at 8.7% and the Green Party at 3.7%. For full details, visit our website.
Of note, Tory support in the Prairies is down but up in battleground Ontario. This particular configuration of Conservative support is likely more efficient at generating seats.
This could be a signal of the first movement in the campaign but I expect we will need a few more days of tracking to confirm whether this movement is temporary or part of the first trend in the campaign.
There is an incremental pick-up for the Liberals, and Ignatieff is starting to have an advantage over Layton, although Ignatieff still trails Harper significantly. This suggests that perhaps more Canadians are thinking in terms of the Liberals being the best counterpoint to the Conservatives and the numbers are moving for Ignatieff, but the jury is still out. Also, on the leadership tracking, Harper had a very good day yesterday and his competence numbers were very strong.
Also of note, party policies as a vote factor have increased to 56.7% compared to 48.3% prior to the election. This suggests that voters are becoming increasingly focused on the platforms and ideas proposed by the federal parties. On the top issue front, healthcare continues to be the number one issue of concern, followed by jobs and the economy.
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