Tories ahead by 6 points, Grits up, NDP down

I am not going to bet on this horse race. With a NDP candidate in Manitoba withdrawing in favour of the Liberal incumbent and Jack promising another NDP candidate within 48 hours and locally, for us, no Liberal candidate as yet------understandable as there has not been Liberal representation in this area for 50+ years. I suspect the electorate, like me, are considering voting strategically. That will likely show as a diminished Green vote (the safe parking lot vote) while the electorate in some ridings will weigh the chances of particular opposition candidates in the riding and throw their vote that way. The way Harper is going, I believe he has a great ability to polarize and, I must say that I am sick of listening to him in particular although the rest do not excite me either. Harper is overstating his case and shooting himself in the foot. The BC ridings of the three high profile Conservatives, who are not running again , have given rise to rather well raised eyebrows after their shenanigans regarding nominations of candidates which does nothing to polish the Conservative image. Do you remember Cadman and how he was shafted????

The "coalition' bogey man, which seems to be Harper's main plank, is wearing rather thin. Giles Duceppe reminded him that he wrote his name on the Bloc dance card and the NDP dance card for a Conservative coalition waltz to defeat Martin and sent the letter to the GG too. So yesterday Harper argued on one side and today he argues on the other side-----just politics AND I know we all absolutely trust our politicians. It appears to be a given that coalitions usually appear to be more stable and provide better governance as, by necessity, they must govern closer to the centre and avoid the extreems. Isreal, the United Kingdom and Germany currently have coalitions and they are not "evil" as Harper implies. I much prefer to hear about issues and programmes for Canada's future rather than about potential coalitions supposedly dreamt up by the Wicked Witch of the West.

[updated Fri Apr 01 06:50:30 -0400 2011]

This is only after week 1. Something is starting to stir across the country besides the bears and the rustle of Spring ! Most interesting are the shift in trends and the growing realization that policies DO MATTER. This about to become a true horse race and I expect that the integrity, trustworthiness, excess secrecy and contempt rulings are about to become major factors. Parliament IS important to Canadians even if much of the time we are indifferent and critical. Stay tuned Canada.

[updated Fri Apr 01 09:01:15 -0400 2011]

Looks like a majority is a possibility. Canadians are tired of a minority government and now realize Harper is not Dr Evil as the left likes to make him out to be .

There is hope for our future.

[updated Sat Apr 02 16:28:51 -0400 2011]

oh boy people another start of a gong show week the coalitions has us going through again what campaign coverage is in store for this gay week all I know is there better not be another minority either party minority I'll never vote again in my life whats the point go Harper go then again I vote conservatives only always did always will
well it's choices to who would you rather lead Jack or Jill Jacks way out to lunch on most issues like a never ending dream for him why not sure cause he'll never be close to running the country anyway and for Jill ( Michaels) well it's a modified Dion in disguise really all same stupidity different man period know outa the 3 leaders who would you like to lead are country sure the heck don't want Jack or Jill I'll choose Harper anyday

[updated Sun Apr 03 14:17:23 -0400 2011]

oh here we go it's Sunday and Liberals are promising here he's doing 8 Billion plan today OK Jill you need to stop you just spent 15 billion this week alone where he seems he's getting all this money puzzles me think 9 % GST is coming back people don't make the mistake and vote for this clown
oh wait 3 Billion more know so 18 billion this week alone holy cow Jill keep this up we'll be broke by the end of next week omg vote conservative please people

[updated Sun Apr 03 19:36:57 -0400 2011]

It should be noted, that it is "rumoured" and has not yet been "confirmed" that former people employed at Anderson, Evron, Nortel, and a number of USA banking and financial institutions have been seen leaving the LPC Party headquarters recently and that there has been e mails exchanged with Bernie Madock.

Mr. Ignatieff has promised $17.0 billion more than the $4.5 he said he will save by cutting the corporation tax and still balance the countries books although he will not say how.

Savings from the corporation taxes cuts $4.5 billion (Jack Mintz) add $3.5 billion in additional cost for the 250,000 Canadians who will lose their jobs (Jack Mintz), add $4.8 billion for Jacks support, add $5.0 billion for Gilles support, add $8.2 billion for the Liberal plan.

As an FYI, there is reason why Mr. Mintz is a respected and world renowned economist and the PBO is known as the Page Boy of parliament hill.

[updated Sun Apr 03 19:54:36 -0400 2011]

The most recent Nanos Polls (April 3rd) show the CPC 11.3% ahead of the Liberals and that the growth in support that the Liberals have received from the NDP is reversing (LPC down 3.3% since March 31 and NDP support is up 1%

With the polls showing growth Conservative strength in Quebec (25% to 26%) and looking at the Nanos numbers who tracks decided voters.

Factor in that the national number of undecided has dropped 20.5% to 18.1% - all of theses are bad news for the Liberals.

[updated Sun Apr 03 19:56:14 -0400 2011]

Thank you Nik for this forum to express our thoughts.
my hope is that the conservatives win a majority and get the country back on track
As for the liberals their only being is to get elected and assume they speak
for the majority of the country. once in they always do as they wish...red book promises
who can forget those? my concerns are those that affect me gun reg.scrap it...health care,economy...those are my issues...i wonder what would happen if all provinces adopted the Bloc's position of representing your own province? Bloc ontario,Bloc maritime,Bloc B.C etc etc etc...would make an interesting parliment. The bloc and their seperatist friends should be eliminated from the gov of canada, better yet,let them seperate and leave us alone.anyways thank you again sir,i look forward to your polls.

[updated Sun Apr 03 23:32:10 -0400 2011]

News flash there is no such thing as global warming never was never will be and if anyone wants to see the proof message me I'll be glad to show you the informations it's another form of Tax are government brainwashs us into believing and what else they take more money from us so all and all with the 18 to 20 billion Jill just mentioned the last 7 days and he says he's going green know well tack on another 3 billion in tax there you go Canada you vote Liberals guaranteed we'll all feel it in the pocket VOTE CONSERVATIVE get a majority and end this circus in Ottawa once and for all :) thank you
why else you think NDP and Liberals wanna go Green it's a TAX always was always will be Conservatives don't want the extra tax thats why they are not doing it or so gong hoe about it trust me it's a fricken tax people HELLO
They think your all stupid trust me I don't fall for any of that garbage it's all taxes money you can't tell me you trust Jack or Jill to handle Canada's economy or money heaven help us people please let Harper manage it the coalitions gonna cancel aircrafts which gonna cost double when they want to actually do the right thing and cost us even more like wake up it's Government there all in it for are hard earned money

[updated Mon Apr 04 03:04:52 -0400 2011]

I think we have 20% undecided, and 40% who didn't vote last time. These folks need to be invigorated to vote.

I think Mr. Harper has already peaked. His dictator-like fear and smear antics in fact repulse more Canadians every day.

The anybody but Harper movement will swell in the coming weeks, and the Libs, Dips and Hugs may cut some deals to prevent Con wins in key ridings with, oh, 20-25% of the eligible vote.

Voter turnout? 65%

[updated Mon Apr 04 15:41:36 -0400 2011]

Do we have any idea on wether or not the early numbers hold up for the rest of the campaign?
Or do they sort of go out the window in the last week or so when most people actually startthinking about the election?
Don

[updated Mon Apr 04 19:35:09 -0400 2011]

All of the polls are staring to develop trendlines that are rather interesting and very surprising. The numbers clearly and by a wide margin support Harper - on the surface this is surprising for frustrated left wing nuts, pundits and of course let's not forget the ever present same old gang of harper haters that love to rant on web forums. However the average canadian has obvioulsy seen through the last few years of incessant insults and fear mongering by the left on it's eternal quest to find the SCANDAL or maybe a better term is NARRATIVE - it started with soldiiers on the streets and continued through countless false accusations and slanders and allegations which invariable lead to nothing but he said she said they said and where did the missing wafer go - BUT - here we are folks and canadians aren't buying it - Iggy is selling like crazy but going nowhere except further divide a divided left - I wonder if the left out there realizes he is more of a problem than a solution hahahah - in the meantime see you at the polls harper haters - you guys make us Tories day!

[updated Mon Apr 04 19:48:57 -0400 2011]

Nik

I think that many of us would be interested to know what the percentages are in the "Rest of Canada" outside of Quebec. We know that the LPC and CPC are likely to split about 25 seats in Quebec (probably about 15 - 10 in favor of the LPC). To form a majority either party needs about 140 to 145 seats out of 233 outside of Quebec.

It appears to me that the CPC currently has a lead of about 45 to 28 outside of Quebec, or about a 17 point lead. This a huge hill for the LPC to climb. Have the numbers for the "Rest of Canada" ever been calculated separately with appropriated adjustments made for geographic distribution of population and age demographics?

[updated Mon Apr 04 22:01:34 -0400 2011]

Nik's numbers today are CPC 42, LPC 28, NDP 16, Bloc 8 and Greens 4. The numbers on March 15 were CPC 39, LPC 28, NDP 20, Bloc 10 and Greens 4.

Assuming that these numbers have some degree of accuracy and there is no reason to believe that they do not, there are some interesting trends. It appears that whatever support the LPC is gaining from the NDP on the left, they are losing to the CPC on the right. Both the NDP and the Bloc have lost about 1 supporter out of 5, the LPC is holding their own and the CPC has gained about 1 supporter for every 10 they had on March 15.

It appears that by moving to the left to pick up NDP support that the LPC is bleeding their centre-right support to the CPC. For the NDP and the Bloc to lose 1 out of 5 supporters is a very significant shift. It will be interesting to see if they return if it continues to appear that the LPC is not making significant inroads in the CPC lead. It will also be interesting to observe if the CPC can continue in the plus 40 numbers.

The next 25 days will be interesting for us junkies who observe the political process from a strategic point of view.

[updated Tue Apr 05 00:22:30 -0400 2011]

Here's what I think Nik. Just posted on the Mop and Pail.

It's because Nik Nanos has a biased way of polling leadership. Totally, hopelessly biased. I've taken him to task on it for years but he's a stubborn guy.

First, we've got apples and oranges (a PM vs. someone who's never been). Next we have questions that play to Harper's propaganda-induced persona (strong, decisive, competent), when of course a bully is also strong, Hitler was decisive and, can you think of a single file where the PM has been competent?

Mr. Harper, the most vindictive, manipulative, secretive, egotistical PM we've ever had, by far, goes through the roof of the Nanos poll.

Mr. Ignatieff, way more intelligent, way better team, way more communicative, inspirational, flexible and compassionate, way more transparent, way less scandalized and on and on, is a distant second or third.

For example, Nanos doesn't mentioned that Mr. Harper has just been convicted of contempt of Parliament for the first time in the history of the commonwealth. A little context like that would blow his numbers up and I would be pleased to attend the funeral.

p.s. Don't even frown upon the religious on his site (nikonthenumbers).

[updated Thu Apr 07 03:34:37 -0400 2011]

Kind of wondering where in the prairies Tory support is down. I could see a little in Manitoba, but I would think overall it would take a turn for the worst in BC. Lets see what happens when the cap and trade debate gets going. It surelywill provide some movement in the numbers in the west.

[updated Thu Apr 07 23:23:18 -0400 2011]

This is in response to someone whose name I didn't get. I've explained before that I can't see the post unless they are recent one (the latest three)
The concerned person should know by my response because what I say relates to his comments.

Why do you talk about history. Don't dwell on the past. The present is very different.
Harper's party has no relevance to Mulroney's, nor Ignatieff to Chretien's, nor Layton's to Broadbent's. So deal with the present.

The Liberals didn't steal anything, with the possible exception of Gagliano. , the money went to business men, most as a result of one civil servant Chuck Guite.

It was mis-management of $40 million. Not bad out of a multi billion dollar treasury.
I wish private companies could do as well and any other government, provincial, federal or international.

Harper's government has been neither good nor bad for the economy, just neutral.
The same would have happened no matter who was there. The Liberals would not kill it. In fact they set up the conditions that gave us the economy we have now. If they had been in power the past 5 years they would have most probably made it better than it is. But I have other reasons that I don't want them there, but not because of the economy.
I am sure that you wouldn't understand the reasons why I would not have corporate or business taxes. If the kind of businesses you mentioned left Canada we should be all happy.
Bob Rae was good for Ontario. (and it was in the 90,s) He made a few mistakes but if it wasn't for him the lower income people and the poor would have been in dire straits.

Mike Harris came in and nearly killed us ( he did some in Waterton) and Jim Flaherty was his finance minister.

[updated Fri Apr 08 04:02:19 -0400 2011]

I don't know it was quite clear to me who won land slide win definately Harpers Conservatives the debate to me looked like are future circus of Parliament we definately need Conservative Majority by far :) go Harper go he's got my vote :)

[updated Wed Apr 13 10:50:43 -0400 2011]

Hi Nik
I have a problem understanding the relationship between national and regional polls. The national poll show the Conservatives leading but when you look on the regional polls, it looks like the are ging to lose big. They are down in every province exempt in Ontario. As we are in parlamentary style of voting, it looks like Conservatives will lose seats in every province. Am I wrong in my assumption?
Stanr9

[updated Wed Apr 20 16:45:33 -0400 2011]