Harper Cabinet Recalibration - Will it make a difference?

I expect Baird as Environment will be inclined to bulldoze the Clean Air Act through as he did the Accountability Act. The game of election chicken will be on this coming session but no opposition party is really ready to go and the Bloc would rather wait until after Quebec goes.

Harper would like to delay engineering his defeat until the fall so he can have some time to pick up his poll numbers. He needs to spread is influence and policy agenda beyond his infamous 5 prioities and try to position Dion as a do nothing former Environment Minister.

I don't think the public really wants or needs to go to the polls now givne they are 30/30 on Harper and Dion - not enough for either to form a majority - and I expect 50/50 on an election.

My money now is on a fall election.

The cabinet shuffle was not really surprising. Ambrose was hurt by the PMO's intervention in the environment file, and I don't think there was anything she could do.

As for the other changes, I think the move of Solberg into Human Resources and Social Development may be newsworthy. He replaces a women in the sensitive file that is responsible for childcare. This allows the Liberals to focus on the issue again and further increase the gender gap.

Also of note, another Senator gets a cabinet portfolio - seniors. How this fits into Harper's Senate Reform plan is still questionable.

Jason Kenney gets into cabinet as Secretary of State for Multiculturalism. An interesting move that has strong political motives. Kenney has been a strong organizer for the party within ethnic communities - this is a strategy to increase support among key minority groups for the next election.

Overall, the shuffle was not suprising. As for an election - I agree with Ken that its 50/50. But if an eleciton isn't held this spring, I won't expect one until 2008. Ontario goes to the polls in October and a number of other provinces are scheduled to have elections this year (QC, SK, MB, and NL)

I think some key changes in the cabinet are quite interesting. The shuffling (or perhaps 'demotion') of Rona Ambrose and Diane Finley was a long time coming, since both have been poor at pushing the government's message in their respective, and important, issue areas. Nicholson is also a fresh change at Justice; he has a more conciliatory air about him. As for the appointment of John Baird to the Environment Ministry, I can only describe it as a political coup. Baird has the seemingly irreconcilable reputation of being both an attack dog and someone who negotiates well with other parties, particularly the NDP (i.e. Federal Accountability Act - He did a lot of the legwork himself). However, considering that both the Conservatives and the NDP need to recapture the environment file to ensure their own political success (especially the NDP, which is at risk of losing command of its key issue), Baird's appointment seems to represent a serious gesture to both the NDP and the Canadian public. As a person that thrives on the partisan atmosphere of Question Period, Baird will be relentless on the 'Liberal record' on the file and present a decisive image to the Canadian public. He will also undoubtedly work with the NDP in the back rooms to prepare a revised Clean Air Act that will pass muster in the public eye. Brilliant, from a tactical standpoint. Note that the NDP also seems to be happy with Baird's appointment, if you happened to have watched Paul Dewar's comments on CTV. Mr. Harper has surprised us once again and it will definitely be an interesting Spring as a result.

I don't know that the Conservatives are boxed in on the environment.

When I look at a "Conservative" I try to look at their record as to whether they are PC or Reform style conservatives. Mr. Baird is a Progressive Conservative, and is quite likely to be strong on the environment as PCs have historically been. In the 2000 election the Progressive Conservative party and the Green Party had extremely similar platforms when it came to economic and environmental issues.

When Mr. Baird was running I kept hearing about people asking him social-conservative related questions and him just doing a "this isn't what I'm running on -- next question"...

Mr. Baird is also not a quiet MP, so just staying quiet isn't going to happen. I also don't think he's going to steamroll the old policy ideas as there would be no point to changing Ministers unless they wanted to project a change in direction.

My guess is that there will be considerable work on this file. The unknown is whether the very different thinking on sustainability between PC's and Reform will be able to lean towards the PC side as that is what can save the Conservatives, otherwise they are going to get hammered on this issue in the next election. This could be a make-or-break issue for them. While the environment isn't "everything", the need for policy to be based on science and economic and not ideology is critical. How a party approaches a complex issue like the environment will go a long way to how they can be trusted on other issues.

There is a side of me that wants the Reformers to win, and the PC thinkers to move to the Green Party. I think that while the Conservative party may be dominated by Reformers, that the conservatives in Canada are dominated by PCers. There are many PC thinkers already part of the Green Party, which I think is a positive thing for a party which has all too often been mistaken for a "left of center" party.

I believe Harper's shuffle is what a sensible leader must do, that is, put the best foot forward. As it is, that figurative foot has a few self inflicted holes in it, the latest being his pre-Christmas patronage appointments and the dust up with the head of Elections Canada on some questionable and unreported donations to the Conservatives and campaign spending. Governments always seem to be victims of their own cumulative errors and Harper is falling off the "high road' that he so loudly proclaimed as his own. Further, Harper should not underestimate his major election plank of hospital wait time guarantees that he rather not mention today----it is still mighty important to me. I suggest we are in for another minority government with Prime Minister Dion.

The move I love is the old pit bull John Baird against Dion, Dion will not handle the pressure from Baird and fold like a tent. Thank god the useless Monty Solberg was removed Citizenship and Immigration, they need a strong Minister who will whip this lazy Public Servants in that Department into shape, I have never seen a more dysfunctional department along with Foriegn Affairs in one place at one time. I have some personal issues, they are so lazy, the call center in Montreal useless, but this is normal for Quebec, they cannot even put the right and correct information on their website, how useless do you have be before you stop getting paid, these useless Public Servants just ripping Canadians off and they will not take responsibility, we need a task master and get rid of this Deputy Minister.

I think given the beating Ambrose has taken with critics and the media it only made sense that she be moved. However, there was a real communication gaffe either by the PM or the Environment Minister when The Clean Air Act was announced. The media, pundits and the opposition parties had a field day saying it was dead on arrival but we hardly heard a word from the government to defend it. This left the opposition parties and environmentalists saying what the Act did or did not do. This was a cabinet decision and therefore was the responsibility of the government. So there I fault Mr. Harper. We keep hearing about that we need measures to improve the environment and particularly from Mr. Dion who in his press conference today kept saying we must do this and we must do that. However, never did he say what measures would have to be enacted to move the economy in a sustainable way or how were we going to make people recycle more, what was he going to do about the tarsands in Alberta or the auto industry in Ontario. And what about those coal fired plants in Ontario which spew toxics everyday. The answer is to tax industry to death to make them change their manufacturing processes, to increase Canadians utility bills to ensure they conserve gas and to impose heavy taxes on the auto sector to make cars more environmentally friendly. All of this will require heavy intervention by the federal government. I would suggest that we could end up with higher taxes imposed on ordinary Canadians and industry. Such an imposition of higher taxes will result in job losses resulting in higher unemployment, failed businesses etc. I heard that if we wanted to meet the Kyoto targets by 2012 as Dion proposes we would have reduce economic output by 1/3rd which is staggering. Canadians had better be careful what they wish for. Business and ordinary Canadians already feel they are taxed too much. Well if Dion had his way we would turn into a sustainable economy overnight. That cannot happen without a significant impact on the economy and the daily lives of Canadians. I hope that the media questions Mr. Dion closely and exacts specific answers about how he will impose his environmental friendly world on us. No bafflegab or double speak or whussy words. Unequivocal answers are what Canadians deserve and expect.

Shuffling of Cabinet Positions during a governments span is quite normal. History has a hand in this, and both Liberals and PCs past and present are going to continue this. I feel that Harper is on the short end of the stick with Ambrose as the Environment Minister in the first place. She is too young and not politically strong enough to go against the other more older and knowledgeable MPs. But this sudden fascination on the environment by the Liberals is quite ironic isnt it?, 12 years of woolgathering and blah blah and poo poos and then the Liberal Convention and wha la, a new reborn Environmentilist is the leader. This is utter nonsense on Dion to even consider a whiff at his long and drawn out record of typical Liberal inaction. There is only one way to stop the human effect of global warming and pollution, read Steven Kings "The Stand" and that is the only way we can stop our share of polluting our world. We maybe able to control our own pollution in our country but as for growing wanabe powers such as China, forget it, there philosophy is live today and screw tomorrow, just the same as every other growing economy. Wipe out the world of people and then you will see change in a few years. That is the only way to end this political football game on rethoric and blah blah.
Robini

The cabinet shuffle is a slight shift to the left, and a little bit more marginalizing of the original Reformers.

With Toews out of Justice who are the RadicLibs going to scream at about their hobby horse items?I'm sad to see Toews shifted but it was an astute political move by the PM.

Baird should be able to make Dion look rather foolish when he (Dion) tries to make environmental hay.

Overall, good political moves by the PM. He seems to be capable of learning after all. He's probably short circuited any opposition plans to force an election before 2008. If Harper has another 18 months he'll either be unstoppable, or his Conservatives will be wiped out like Kim Campbells were. It all depends on performance and there's not a thing that the opposition can do about it. The opposition can be either cooperative and help make Harper look good or be obstructionist and make themselves look bad. Either way Harper wins...provided that he or a senior minister don't commit a huge gaffe.

I am a little surprised to see that the two ministers that were not elected as Conservatives appear to have survived. Seems going into a probable election that those actually contesting seats would get the exposure. Lets hope this new guy can produce something real for our environment!

Hello Nik,
No, it will not make a bit of difference. John Baird will be able to scream a little more boldly,
however, the Liberals and NDP will make the difference happen, because it is essential to
this planet, and not just a political score. I haven't blamed Min. Ambrose, because she was
not able to really apply herself to this portfolio...If the PM told her to say she had a plan; those
were her orders...and she has to pay the price for this! This will no longer be an issue with a
strong Opposition in the House. S. Dion knows his portfolios, and if you listen to him, knows
his business, and is credible. As M. Dion said, we need a sustainable environmental plan!
This means long-term planning. We had the Can. Environmental Act, and did not need to
postpone efforts with the Clean Air Act, or Hot Air Act, to quote Jack Layton! It was evident
today that PM Harper had no other choice than to re-shuffle his Cabinet, and this because
of the pressures of the other parties. However, this shuffle doesn't mean any change for his
five platform promises, and although I am for stricter laws in the judicial system, I am against
the death penalty. This is far too right-wing for me, and for a lot of Quebecers who do not want
to see this law reinstated. As for PM Harper, his body language is already telling us that he
is preparing for an early election, but said that he would not call for one, which is very different
from what he was doing last Spring! Recently, PM Harper has changed his mind about
calling an early election, global -warming, and a majority gov't, to expecting an election which
he is not hoping for. I give him a lot of credit though, for having shown much courage about
the status of the prov. of Qc., and keeping this Country united. The fact that he has added
five new people to his Cabinet today is good news because it will give them some experience
for the future. They will be less green, in a green sort of way!

Cheers,
blos

The only thing about these changes that concerns me is how these positions rank in terms of power after the position of Prime Minister, Blossom here is a chance for you to write a book. The problem I see with the Canadian Government regardless of who is in power are these useless position like the Treasury Board, Privy Coucil, Governor General, why do we need them, it is bad enough we have to put up with useless unelected Senate where the seats are distributed properly, speak up Mr Quebec we are waiting for another excuse!

I'm inclined to think that it won't make much a difference since Harper remains the public face of the party and the government and he has a cold, uninviting and severe visage. Rather like a Methodist preacher from about 1925. I keep waiting for him to tell us that we cannot petition the Lord with prayer. What is interesting to me is the new prominence he is intending to give to John Baird. I shouldn't imagine that if the evangelical reactionaries learned more about him than they know now that they would be overjoyed. Raising him to de facto deputy Prime Minister is a roll-the-dice type of gambit from Harper that suggests a touch of panic. Far from being able to move the numbers in an upward direction, Harper has seen his strength slowly ebb away in the places that matter (Montreal, Toronto and environs, and the lower Mainland). If he can't stem that tide, he will find himself back in opposition this year and that means he will get bounced right smartly I would think. What is the poor lad to do? The cabinet is full of former C students, cowed general contractors, wackjobs like Stockwell, and wannabe hangmen. At least he has buried Cruella in a portfolio which has no visibility at all. Well, I guess he could announce that he intends that Canada will become a republic next year. That would really stir things up. I would be hard pressed to vote against that myself.

It seems historially, the government will shuffle ministers from time to time and for the most part, from what I have read and seen, this shuffle is a good one while I feel it will temporarly interupt the department while the new Ministers become accustomed to their postings.
I believe removing Ms. Ambrose from Environment is a good move as I believe that Mr. Baird will be stronger on his feet and be more effective in both selling and gaining acceptance of the government plans for the environment. Now all three parties are working together toward the establishment of an Act and Plan, perhaps the end result will be a significant "made in Canada" reduction towards air polution and green gasses.
I was happy to see Ms. Diane Finley being removed from Human Resources Development Canada and the Employment Insurance Commission. While employed workers are generally working diligently at the jobs and seeing the usual deductions off their wages such as income tax, CPP and EI premiums, they assume as contributors they would be looked after if, all of a sudden their job disappears through no fault of their own. Unfortunately, workers employed with two or more employers or employees earning greater than $39,000 will never see insured benefits equal to 55% of the income they might involuntarily loose as lower income earners with one employer receive.
Already, more than $46 billion dollars in EI premiums collected over about 10 years has gone to finance other programs and reduce the national debt. Meanwhile these insured workers and their employer's premiums have not provided benefits to workers at the same level and precentage of income lost and some workers who involuntarily lost employment find themselves unqualified for any benefits, although they worked tirelessly over 20 plus years earning high income while contributing the highest premiums. Thus must change and I was hoping to see that part of the new Accountability Act but being the cash cow it is, never was ever mentioned.
Hopefully the new Minister will take interest and make the necessary reforms to the E.I. Program so that all workers salaried incomes are insured at an equal percentage of lost inome as those with lower incomes. Insurance of income is important to workers, their children and families as well as to the local economies and businesses.

It's just window dressing. Harper will do what he thinks will help him win a majority.
If that happens, watch out. The true colours will be revealed.