Conservatives have advantage - women undecided (Nanos Poll completed October 6th 2010)

Ah, the ladies ! ! !

It is a fact that the demographics of Canada are PREDICTABLY changing. Economies at ALL levels of government. municipal, provincial and federal, will have to come and that to politicians that is blasphemy and a non-vote getter. Failure to implement economies will result in a steady escalation of taxes for all workers in a shrinking workforce and all businesses struggling to find enough young people to move into the workforce. The falling birthrate, unaddressed in Canada, is the awkward cause, almost like a social disease, that nobody wants to talk about.

So, many female voters are inclined to favour the Conservatives. I can see that flying like a lead balloon if Flaherty slashes, as quoted in today's press, social transfer payments that fund post secondary education, health care and social services which the ladies seem to be more sensitive to than the men. Federal-Provincial Transfer Payments in the next election are likely to be a major issue. Throw into that Max Bernier's pronouncement that if he were the Conservative leader-----and he is evidently going to try------he would end the $40 billion social, health transfers to the provinces. Will the ladies be jumping with glee ? ? ?

Flaherty and Bernier are not all wrong in acknowledging the revenue supply is shrinking but neither one is right saying there will be a unilateral "slash". What does "co-operation" mean ??? I fail to hear how the government itself will downsize and it will not act as a profligate wastrel with the people's money in the future. For example, the cost of government is ridiculous when we hear of MP expense accounts and the "living high on the hog" expense accounts for the managerial civil servants. And what is the cost of carrying on a nice little war in Afghanistan or how about the little $1 billion party for the G-20. There was something, too, about $16 billion for fighter jets of outdated technology when the first are delivered spanking new 7 years down the road???? And the list goes on and on. Economies of government is where Flaherty could start and should start. Government (s) will have to get "smarter" but I see no evidence of that as yet.

[updated Thu Oct 14 05:50:18 -0400 2010]

Interesting here is that the latest Ekos poll is just out covering the same time period but with distinctly different results.

Remains to be seen what an election can bring ? Still Nik's numbers where produced before the two major diplomatic slaps and Flaherty's disastrous economic update.

Let's see what the next poll shows ??

[updated Thu Oct 14 08:44:45 -0400 2010]

The one interesting thing is that despite the so called trouble the Conservatives have been in all summer is that their poll numbers continue to be better than the Liberal poll numbers.

We can argue about what the daily/weekly polls mean and with the media declaring that the Ignatieff bus tour was a great success Ignatieff has not been able to move the dial to put his party ahead of the government.

I do agree that Ignatieff appears to have upped his game but the fact remains Canadians are not buying him or the media spin. Many Canadians are watching but are disinclined to buy into any of the parties at this point in time.

Many pundits and pollsters believe a majority government is out of reach in the next election for either party. I do not believe this. Yes they are waiting and seeing but the fact remains polls are saying Canadians are tired of the minority government scenario and will be making a decision based on who should have a majority government.

Harper has the odds in his favour despite all the white noise and depending on the campaign run by the Conservatives, the policies promoted, their handling of the economy and the threat of continued political gridlock Canadians will be inclined to support the Conservative party and give them the majority that is badly needed in Canada.

[updated Thu Oct 14 11:19:02 -0400 2010]

Sadly, the basic facts have not changed. The Bloc still has 9.8% or 10.0% of the national vote, about 38% of the Quebec vote which gave it 65% of the seats in 2008. That was nothing new either: in six elections Bloc voters have never cast the majority of votes in Quebec, but have always elected a majority of Quebec's MPs. The Conservative vote has dropped 1% since 2008 but Conservative voters would still elect 27 of Alberta's 28 MPs and 13 of Saskatchewan's 14 MPs, giving a false representation of western voters.

The Law Commission of Canada gave us a good democratic model for a fair voting system six years ago, with 1/3 of MPs elected from open regional lists so that every MP has faced the voters. A model that would fairly represent Quebec federalists, Western Liberals and Toronto Conservatives. When is the Liberal Party going to fulfill its historic mission of Canadian unity by adopting this recommendation?

[updated Thu Oct 14 18:27:46 -0400 2010]

'Harperland" says it all...All facts in one book. What is happening to Canada? The Harper gov';t is systematically making Canada unrecognizable. Is it any wonder that we weren't allowed on the UN Security Council! With the Harper/Conserative record of virtually thumbing it's nose at everybody and everything disagrees with 'their vision', it's surprising that we were even allowed to have our name stand! With all 'the unaccountability' that has taken place during the Conservative tenure it's mind-boggling that we haven't taken back Our Canada,,because Our Canada is definitely not the Tory version.
The 16 billion of untendered dollars for new fighter jets....where's the open and transparent process?
The Afghan detainee report.....the Tories denied this happened.
The cancelling of funds for Women's groups.
The Conservatives aren't off the people, at least not this Conservative gov't.

[updated Fri Oct 15 14:19:16 -0400 2010]

The Cameo Prime Minister.

Who would have thought that Stephen Harper was actually THIS outgoing. First it was a guest appearance on Corner Gas and now this -- playing a sergeant on Murdoch Mysteries.

What will they think of next? Is another PMO production in the offing? I know, how about a remake of The Fall Guy starring...wait for it, Lawrence Cannon.

Stay Tuned! Highlights, I suspect, right after the election.

[updated Sat Oct 16 20:12:51 -0400 2010]

I've Been Both Spectacularly Right And Wrong.

Trust me, being right is much, much, better!

It seems that 74% in the Question Period poll think the Harper government should apologize for the leaking of at least one veteran's medical records -- allegedly by officials of Veterans Affairs.

Seems rather straightforward, doesn't it Prime Minister...

[updated Sun Oct 17 12:43:16 -0400 2010]

Separating Themselves From Max!

It doesn't take a genius to figure out why word hasn't come down (and won't) from the hallowed halls of the PMO telling Maxime Bernier to STFU...this Prime Minister is known as cleverness and finesse personified times two -- at least when it comes to his own caucus.

Stephen Harper has kept the MB file simple: the decision was made long ago that Max would never have another opportunity to return to cabinet. I can't say in all honesty that I can argue with that.

So what to do? Quite obviously, Max loves the political game and knows he can eventually beat Stanley Knowles' record, courtesy of the fine Beaucerons. Hence, his ever increasing independent streak and failure to consult (and perhaps even advise) the PMO when it comes to his own fundamental beliefs and pronouncements.

For inquiring minds who want to know -- here's the only possible answer: can you spell L-A-T-E-R-A-L move? Subtle encouragement abounds in CPC circles for Max to make the move to better pastures in La vieille capitale!

Can't you just picture the argument? What with a pending right-wing political party in embryonic form gestating in Quebec City, it's not too big a stretch to imagine Guess Who as its first leader. Tadum! Nice way to kill two birds with one stone. And if political fortune should suddenly smile on the new provincial party leader -- heck, federal Conservatives are not averse to taking that as a bonus.

In short, either way, a plausible scenario becomes win-win for this Prime Minister. Keep you eyes on the ball and don't feign surprise when it happens because if the recent past is any predictor of the immediate future -- the skin is already in the game.

[updated Wed Oct 20 20:59:46 -0400 2010]

Stephen Harper: The Grudging Interventionist.

For those of us who watched this Prime Minister in the House today, I thought body language spoke volumes. The PM quite clearly does not relish the idea of blocking any possible takeover of Potash Corporation. Looking at the matter dispassionately and bearing in mind that government's role is to promote fair business practices, one finds very little ground with which to manoeuver when the only argument you hear is directly related to the offer made by the potential acquiring multi-national. Put another way, it's perceived in many quarters as a low-ball offer for a premium asset.

But we're really talking politics here -- and when you throw into the mix the political fortunes of the Conservative Party of Canada, that's a major light bulb moment in the offing.

Harper knows he has to hold the seats he's got in Saskatchewan and is looking to improve on his numbers. (Not a totally unreasonable assumption, IMHO.) The PM has landed face- first smack up against a potentially unpleasant political reality. Both the people of Saskatchewan -- not to mention Premier Brad Wall are not exactly enthused about the offer. In fact, Wall has gone so far as to say that it will bring no net benefit to his province.

Poor Harper. He can't hold pat -- he certainly would not be well advised to punt. Translation: the fine art of the cave will have to be assembled in such a manner so that it doesn't, at least on the face of it, appear as such.

Grey cells working overtime...the man is not for turning -- at least for a while yet. But come it will, because frankly speaking, come it must when one finally gets down to political brass tacks.

[updated Wed Oct 20 21:16:57 -0400 2010]

Is Potash Suddenly Turning Into "Peanuts"?

Hi Tony, can you feel that heat rising across the Saskatchewan prairie? I sure can. I think Premier Brad Wall has made his views perfectly clear -- and from what I can see, so have the people of Saskatchewan.

But I suppose real free enterprisers are willing to overlook that. Too bad. It's fine for Tom Flanagan to point out the so-called flaws in Wall's arguments but this is raw politics we're dealing with here -- ask any of the 13 Conservatives' switchboards or fax machines!

However, even under the worst case scenario, all's not lost for Conservative MPs. After all, 13 sounds just about right as a number to fill the vacant slots on the Quebec Bourassa Conservative riding executive board.

[updated Sat Oct 23 12:24:28 -0400 2010]

Just an observation, in Calgary, where Mr. Graves of EKOS says the fat old angry white neo-conservative white men hold sway, we elect a Harvard educated, "progressive", person of color of the Muslim faith for mayor (by a very substantial margin). In Toronto, where the forward looking ethnically diverse "progressives" purportedly hold sway, they elect Rob Ford for mayor (by a very substantial margin), who the national media has portrayed as a fat old angry white man. Mr. Graves, let your culture wars begin... :-).

[updated Mon Oct 25 21:30:07 -0400 2010]

It Was Like Pulling Teeth...But Blackburn Has Apologized.

I will commend the government for that, even though it came belatedly. It was the right thing to do.

[updated Mon Oct 25 21:54:37 -0400 2010]

And Now, Amateur Poetry Hour!

By all means, please feel free to join in:

If Vic decides,
Omar likely cries.

[updated Mon Oct 25 21:56:05 -0400 2010]

Ronald,

The political world in Canada changed in Toronto on Monday when the Canadians in Toronto throw out the Liberal NDP brand and choose good Governance over spend and tax and it seems that the political world will be changing again in the USA as one more Liberal / Socialist Government is taken down by voters.
....

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69P3XP20101027

(Reuters) - Republicans enter the final week of a bitter election campaign as heavy favorites to win control of the House of Representatives and score big Senate gains, dealing a severe blow to President Barack Obama two years after he entered the White House.

A thirst for change in Washington and worries about the stumbling economy appear likely next Tuesday to break Obama's Democrats' grip on Congress in a potential rout that would topple House Speaker Nancy Pelosi from power.

With more than 90 Democratic-held seats at risk on November 2 in the 435-member House, independent analysts project Republicans will pick up at least the 39 Democratic seats they need for control.

Republicans are also headed to big gains in the Senate but are expected to fall short of picking up the 10 Democratic seats needed for a majority.

To control the 100-member Senate, Republicans will need to sweep nearly every competitive race -- a difficult but not impossible task.

A Republican win in the House and gains in the Senate would likely put the brakes on Obama's agenda and spark a prolonged period of legislative gridlock, analysts said. Investors expect a split government and have largely factored in the result, so a dramatic move in stocks on November 3 is unlikely without an unexpected showing by either party.

[updated Wed Oct 27 14:31:33 -0400 2010]

Todays face plant into the dirt and it is the face plants of all face plants.

...

According to the latest Angus Reid poll, it’s beginning to look as though the zeitgeist in Canada today is conservative:

The Conservative Party holds a double-digit lead in Canada and overall voter preferences are very similar to the will expressed by the electorate in the last federal election, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

...

37 per cent of respondents (+3 since September) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.

The Liberal Party is second with 26 per cent (=), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19 per cent (+1), the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (=), and the Green Party with six per cent (-5).

All five parties are within a point of their totals in the 2008 federal election.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by nine points (41% to 32%).

...

This marks quite a change from Mr. Graves’s take on the political situation on Sept. 2:

Census 'raspberries' put Tories on par with Liberals

...

And here’s what Mr. Graves had to say to The Globe on Oct. 13:

UN failure fits into ‘increasingly damaging narrative’ for Tories

[updated Wed Oct 27 17:30:04 -0400 2010]

The face plants into the dirt for the Liberal party continues as the Don (I never met a Liberal I did not Like) Martin of the National Post reports and shows that these continuing string of failures by the Liberal seem to have no end and explain why the Conservatives are 11 points ahead again and Ignatieff is below Dions Numbers.

...

Don Martin: Ottawa’s big red control freaks

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/10/27/don-martin-ottawas-big-red-control-freaks/

...

The new control freaks on Parliament Hill are a Liberal party where freedoms of expression, dissension and individual legislation have been stripped away in a series of bizarre moves by the party leadership.

Let’s start with the treatment of colorful and at-times controversial Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla.

The backlash has become so intense that Mr. Ignatieff, who initially voted in favour of the bill, demanded Ms. Dhalla withdraw her legislation to make the phones stop ringing. She refused.

But the reason for his newfound opposition is bogus. “The implementation of such legislation would be prohibitively expensive and would only provide assistance to a very small number of Canadians,” Ignatieff insisted.

[updated Wed Oct 27 18:30:33 -0400 2010]

There is still more trouble from Don Martin as he reports that the Liberals continue to dive head first into the dirt.

...

What’s worse, it now appears that MPs floating interesting ideas is too much for lofty Liberals to tolerate without rebuttal.

Liberal MP Keith Martin, a medical doctor, declared the obvious when he wrote about the need to pick the handcuffs on the Canada Health Act to allow patients to “pay for care if they wish, in entirely separate facilities funded solely by the private sector”.

The screech from inside the Liberal bunker was loud and immediate. Health critic Ujjal Dosanjh didn’t just shrug it off as a rogue idea, he went on the attack.

“That’s bunk. That is absolutely not a solution to any of the problems that we’re facing today,” he fumed. “It really is irrelevant what Keith Martin thinks. He doesn’t speak for the Liberal Party of Canada on health care.” My, aren’t we sensitive.

Incredibly, the iron-fisted discipline of the Conservatives is starting to look like a form of freedom compared to the bound-and-gagged Liberals.

So move over Conservatives and meet Canada’s newest control freaks. They’re the ones hiding inside the Big Red Tent.

[updated Wed Oct 27 18:35:08 -0400 2010]

Todays face plant comes once again from the leader of the oppostion.

....

Then, a few minutes after the vote, the Liberals sent out another release.

“Despite the defeat of C-300, the Liberal Party remains committed to the important principle of corporate social responsibility for Canadian industries at home and abroad,” Mr. Igntaieff said in the statement.

He went on to talk about having an “open and transparent process” to deal with CSR issues.

Not surprisingly, some Liberals were scratching their heads as to where Mr. Ignatieff actually stands on this issue.

It was reminiscent of the reversal Mr. Ignatieff made on employment insurance last month when he decided that measures for a broad range of enhancements to EI, included in a Bloc MP’s bill, were too expensive and no longer necessary.

This, after he had vowed a year before to try to take down the Harper government because it would not make some of the same reforms.

Mr. Ignatieff said the bill was “not fiscally responsible” and he did not show up for the vote. However, his employment insurance critic, Mike Savage, supported the Bloc bill. In the end, it too was defeated.

[updated Thu Oct 28 14:27:30 -0400 2010]

Against Harper: It Seems I Have A Little More Company In Quebec!

Raymond Giroux
Le Soleil

(Ottawa) Malgré son titre officiel, Stephen Harper ne dirige pas un gouvernement conservateur. Le premier ministre serait plutôt un révolutionnaire voulant imposer les valeurs d'une nouvelle droite réformiste à l'ensemble du pays.

Le philosophe Christian Nadeau en a la conviction profonde et veut que cela se sache. D'où sa décision de passer son été à rédiger ce qu'il appelle un «bref traité philosophique sur la révolution conservatrice» au titre on ne peut plus frappant: Contre Harper.

J'ignore si ce professeur de l'Université de Montréal vendra beaucoup d'exemplaires de son ouvrage chez nous, dans la capitale du conservatisme, pour emprunter l'expression du collègue François Bourque, mais bonne chance.

Publié chez Boréal, l'auteur s'épanche sans gêne aucune, et dès la première ligne, il nous annonce ses couleurs : «J'ai honte du gouvernement actuel», écrit-il en chassant les partisans conservateurs du rayon de librairie où se vendra son livre.

Mais pour les autres, soit les deux tiers des Canadiens et les trois quarts des Québécois, selon les sondages, M. Nadeau offre matière à réflexion.

Pour résumer, les conservateurs au pouvoir ne sont plus des conservateurs au sens classique. Joe Clark et Brian Mulroney n'ont jamais cherché à détruire l'État et l'ensemble des institutions politiques - l'épisode du recensement manifestant bien cette tendance.

Stephen Harper, lui, pratique la politique de la terre brûlée, comme Margaret Thatcher et Ronald Reagan dans leur pays respectif. Leurs successeurs n'ont plus osé intervenir dans l'économie et les questions sociales, l'État a trop mauvaise presse pour autoriser de tels gestes.

Pourtant, le parti de M. Harper domine les sondages et reprendrait le pouvoir, toujours minoritaire, demain matin.

Non pas que les électeurs approuvent sa vision réformiste et antiétatique, mais parce que les partis d'opposition passent plus de temps à se battre entre eux qu'à attaquer les conservateurs.

Comme l'écrit Nadeau, il ne suffit pas d'exposer les thèses du parti au pouvoir pour convaincre le public de le rejeter. Ceux qui veulent le remplacer, le Parti libéral en l'occurrence, doivent proposer une solution de rechange crédible, ce qu'ils ne font pas en ce moment.

Le chef Michael Ignatieff a toujours du mal à trouver un créneau gagnant, malgré l'assurance que lui a donnée sa tournée estivale en jean et en manches de chemise.

Le PLC a affiné ses stratégies de communication et donne même l'impression, certains jours, et cela dit sans méchanceté, de savoir où il va. Mais les tirs concentrés de la fort riche machine conservatrice l'abattent au moindre signe de mouvement.

Les sondages répètent la même chanson depuis plusieurs années : dès que le PC menace de former un gouvernement majoritaire, sa cote d'amour chute sur-le-champ.

[updated Sat Oct 30 12:30:03 -0400 2010]

Zachary: My Pie-In-The-Sky Projections For Next Tuesday.

Republicans take the House of Representatives with a gain of sixty (60) seats.

Republicans take the Senate with a majority of one (1) seat.

Effect on Obama: ideal as the Party of No is forced to deal with things on their own legislative watch -- for a change.

Your predictions? Thanks!

[updated Sat Oct 30 15:08:10 -0400 2010]

Ronald,

Interesting that none of the major news outlets have picked up this story, NP, G&M, Star, Hills Time, ottawa, Montreal, CBC, CTV and that they have not gone looking for the other 6.

Just think what the headlines would have been it it was a Conservative and if you are not sure just remember all the coverage helna Got for her $100 hundred dollar fine.

....

MPs to pay back treasury
Unknown number of politicians broke rules by renting from family, then claiming expense
By STEPHEN MAHER Ottawa Bureau | EXCLUSIVE
Sat, Oct 30 - 4:54 AM

OTTAWA — The House of Commons has ordered at least two MPs to pay back thousands of tax dollars the government paid for their rent after a Chronicle Herald-Ottawa Citizen investigation early this summer found they were breaking rules that barred MPs from renting from family members.

Toronto Liberal MP John Cannis was ordered to pay back more than $80,000, and York West MP Judy Sgro, also a Grit, paid more than $60,000, a source said.

Chief government whip Gordon O’Connor, who heads the secretive all-party committee that controls parliamentary spending, wouldn’t say how many MPs were found to be violating the rules against renting from family members or how much money they had to pay back, but he confirmed Thursday that some MPs had to get out their chequebooks.

"The individuals who were collectively determined not to have followed the rules had to reimburse Parliament the amount that they should not have claimed," he said. "The process is just finishing now."

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/1209495.html

[updated Sun Oct 31 16:07:26 -0400 2010]

Will He, Or Won't He?

Actually depends on whether this Prime Minister listens to his brain or his heart. I know which way I'd go as PM. What about you? But if the last three major government decisions are any indication...ha, ha, the fun has just begun for the Conservative government:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-31/harper-weighs-bhp-rejection-after-1-637-canada-deals-approved.html

[updated Sun Oct 31 20:16:09 -0400 2010]

I like the new nick name for the Liberals, "Rubber Stamp" yes they rubber stamped every investment in Canada. If they were still in power the Chinese would own all the Oil Sands

[updated Wed Nov 03 02:55:22 -0400 2010]

Way To Go Harry!

Thanks for making the rest of my week. Nevada can be proud that Ms. 2nd Amendment Remedies gets to move on to "other" career opportunities...

[updated Wed Nov 03 09:00:46 -0400 2010]

Thank You.

I want to put my partisanship aside for a moment (I hope that normally I'm not seen as rabidly partisan) and thank both Industry Minister Tony Clement and the Prime Minister for rejecting the potential takeover of Potash Corporation.

It's my understanding that the 30-day waiting period is merely to respect the provisions of the Act and I consider the decision final. For those of you who happen to be doubting Thomas's or Tammys -- well, simply urge your MPs to support the NDP motion. But again, I think this is done.

Thanks to the Government of Canada for acting in the best interests of the nation and that of Saskatchewan. Tonight, I'm proud of my government. (But don't expect my warm and fuzzy glow to last too long!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) Well done.

[updated Wed Nov 03 21:42:05 -0400 2010]

Ronald,

This is more for my little friend as I know that they do so like polls results, although I do question the headline given the results showing the Liberals at 25%.

Perhaps a better headline would be; Tories stand strong in polls with help from recent Liberal stumbles.
....

Tories stand strong in polls despite recent stumbles

An Abacus Data online poll has the Conservatives eight points ahead of the Liberals, with 33 per cent support compared to 25 per cent. The NDP is at 21 per cent while the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois are at 10 per cent.

The online poll of 1,001 Canadians was conducted between Oct. 29 to Nov. 1.

[updated Thu Nov 04 11:18:47 -0400 2010]

Ronald.

Have read on this one and if inclined provide some comments as I do see this by election as a make or break of Ignatieff and the Liberals.

....

Some background for Vaughan.

It is a seat that the Liberals have held since it was created in 1996 and they have won the seat by substantive margins in the last three elections.

2004 31,430 votes 63.0%, winning margin 19,609 or 39.3% with 56.0% voter turn out.
2006 36,968 votes 59.7%, winning margin 50,844 or 33.7% with 64.0% voter turn out.
2008 27,773 votes 49.2%, winning margin 8,383 or 14.8% with 51.9% voter turn out.
http://www.elections.ca/scripts/OVR2004/default.html

With various commenter now calling this race as to close to call between the Liberals and the Conservatives - this can be considered as being seen as being a major erosion of the Liberal Brand in the City above Toronto.

I expect that this race will be followed closely by both the Liberals and Conservatives as a negative result for the Liberals in this riding will have an impact on their policies as the Party is now releasing various planks of their platforms 18 months after Ignatieff was acclaimed as leader.

Given the Long Gun, the UN Seat, the Long Form Census, Potash, Khadr as well as the Liberals releasing their policy on pension reform, foreign policy and with the Conservatives bring new tough on crime bills before the house.

Canadians will be able at last to compare Liberal and Conservative policy and vote on it.

Given the strength of the Liberals in this riding, winning the riding is the only option that the Liberals have and they must win as big as they have in other elections.

Because if the Conservatives win this seat it or reduce the Liberal winning margin by their candidate, it will be taking by many Canadians as being a referendum on the Liberals, their policies and their leader.

Bottom line is that the Liberals took that seat by 50,000 votes just 4 short years ago and to lose that seat - would be trouble and there would be no way for the Liberals to spin it otherwise.

[updated Thu Nov 04 12:20:47 -0400 2010]

Jim Prentice was driven out of government by my e-mail criticing him for the stupid decision of the Prosperity Mines in Norther BC this was about jobs for the region, had nothing to do with the enviroment this project is goinf ahead, it is a provincial respsonsibility. It has to do with jealous people in Central Canada. Central Canadians all they do is whine about jobs but they never do anything. BC and Alberta just do! Are you people ever going to learn where the power is?

[updated Fri Nov 05 00:02:42 -0400 2010]

My first comment will be to introduce the name of the Conservative Candidate; Ray Larkin who ran in 2008 and will be running again in the by-election in Winnipeg North, Kevin Chief, the NDP candidate and Kevin Lamoureux, the Liberal candidate.

My second comment will be to note, that through the past four elections over the past 10 years, support for the Liberal party has dropped from a high of 36.6% (2004) to a low of 9.2% (2008). On the other hand support for the Conservatives has increased in the same period from a low of 12% (2000) to a high of 22.4% (2008).

I would therefore offer the opinion that the Liberal brand is not as strong in the riding as been suggested in the article.

The third point, is that although NDP support has been strong in this riding over the same period under Judy Wasylycia-Leis and that is reflected in the NDP numbers winning the seat with between 48.2% to 62.6.

Ms. Wasylycia-Leis was defeated in the recent Winnipeg Civic Election as Katz amassed 116,176 votes compared to 90,717 for Wasylycia-Leis, a victory margin of 25,000 votes.

( http://www.winnipeg.ca/clerks/docs/elections/2010Election/results/winnipeg.html )

What is interesting from the election result is that much of the campaign was framed around crime in Winnipeg and in particular Ms. Wasylycia-Leis former riding and it is also worth noting that Ms. Wasylycia-Leis did not carry her former riding in the city elections.

In conclusion and with respect to Mr. Simpson opinion piece.

I will suggest that given the Conservative constant and continuing record around "crime" issues and the perceived lack of concern that the Liberal and NDP party and their candidates around this file.

That while I expect the NDP to take the riding, I do see an off chance that the Conservative under the now indentified candidate "Mr. Larkin" has an opportunity to unseat the NDP and furthermore I see the Liberals at best maintaining or at worst falling below their 2008 support of 9.0%

...
Some background on Winnipeg North election results; Sourced Elections Canada.

http://www.elections.ca/home.aspx

2000 NDP 14,356 votes cast 58.4%; margin of victory 7,601 votes
2000 LIB 6,755 votes cast 27.5%;
2000 CPC 2,950 votes cast 12.0%;
...
2004 NDP 12,507 votes cast 48.2%; margin of victory 3,016 votes
2004 LIB 9,491 votes cast 36.6%;
2004 CPC 3,186 votes cast 12.3%;
...
2006 NDP 15,,582 votes cast 57.2%; margin of victory 9,830 votes
2006 LIB 5,752 votes cast 21.1%;
2006 CPC 4,810 votes cast 17.6%;
...
2008 NDP 14,097 votes cast 62.6%; margin of victory 9,064 votes
2008 CPC 5,033 votes cast 22.4%;
2008 LIB 2,075 votes cast 9.2%

[updated Fri Nov 05 10:53:42 -0400 2010]

Tories trump 'anemic' Liberals on economy, health care, poll finds
By Meagan Fitzpatrick, Postmedia News November 3, 2010

Forty per cent of Canadians said the Tories are the best choice to manage the economy, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals; and 40 per cent also said the Tories can best manage the country's finances, compared to 29 per cent who chose the Liberals.
...

Harper best choice for prime minister: poll By Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News November 2, 2010

The survey found that 43 per cent of Canadians believe that, among the major party leaders, Harper is the best choice for best prime minister, down three points from a poll in February.

By comparison, just 24 per cent of Canadians think Ignatieff would make the best prime minister. That's up by three points from February. But he is still well behind Layton, who is judged by 33 per cent of Canadians to be the best person to be prime minister.

...

Tories, Liberals stuck in 'trench warfare' says Ipsos Reid poll By Christina Spencer, Postmedia News November 5, 2010

Results of the Ipsos Reid poll for Postmedia News and Global Television suggest the Tories have the support of 35 per cent of decided Canadians: statistically equal to the 36 per cent support they garnered to win the 2006 election. The Liberals stood at 29 per cent; in 2006, they held the support of 30 per cent of voters.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois, at 35 per cent, outpaced the second-place Liberals at 24 per cent. The Conservatives landed at 19 per cent, the NDP at 11 and the Greens at 10. Ontario voters narrowly preferred the Conservatives (38 per cent) over the Liberals (34 per cent), with the New Democrats at 17 and the Greens at 10.

[updated Sat Nov 06 14:56:48 -0400 2010]

Please Focus!

James Rajotte, James Rajotte, James Rajotte, James Rajotte, James Rajotte. Thanks.

[updated Sat Nov 06 20:53:53 -0400 2010]

An Open Letter To Michael.

Michael,

Like many Canadians, I was incredibly moved watching the veterans protest on Parliament Hill and across the country about the manner in which they are generally treated by Veterans Affairs and the Veterans Review Appeal Board.

While I applaud the genuine efforts of Veterans Affairs Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn (whom I've met) -- not to mention the changes being introduced and those planned for the immediate future by the government, to my mind that is not enough.

What I'm looking for is an undertaking from the Liberal Party of Canada that should Canadians honour us with a mandate in the upcoming election that we will quickly move to clean up the mess over at VA. I believe that a formal commitment is required to replace the upper-level bureaucrats and then to discipline other lower-ranking public servants as appropriate.

There are a number of veterans that Canadians can think of who would be perfect to do the job. I won't potentially embarrass them by naming them but I could easily see them functioning effectively in the top slots of the Department.

So again, how about it? Decisive action will lead to a bold change in both the culture and the perceived level of unaccountability over at VA.

November 11th is but days away. How about doing something meaningful for Veterans under a possible future Liberal government. Do we not owe them at least that?

[updated Sun Nov 07 11:49:25 -0500 2010]

While the polls continue to show the Conservatives leading they all show that no one party is going to get a majority in the next election unless something dramatic happens. There was a time when even a minority government was considered an acceptable outcome but now I notice the media and pollsters are suggesting that the Conservatives are mired in minority terriority. Hello, does anyone really understand the dynamics in Canada?

With the Bloc extracting some 40-50 seats and Quebec, I suspect because of its size, is a large part of the poll it is very difficult for any party to get to the magic 40%. I doubt 40% is really the number any longer. After all Chretien won one of his majorities with 38% of the vote.

Polls before a writ period are interesting but really do not say much other than the trend. When the campaign comes we will see three experienced leaders and one neophyte leader. The latter has a tendency to stick both of his feet in his mouth at the same time and during the pressure of a 37 day campaign I expect that will happen more than a couple of times.

Campaigns do matter and so does voter turnout, vote splitting and to some extent policies and of course the narrative being spun by the media who is winning and losing.

So in the meantime the polls are nice but they hardly tell the full story of the next election.

[updated Wed Nov 10 18:04:33 -0500 2010]