National Political Scene - Year in Review - What are your predictions for 2007?

Election before budget...
The fiscal imbalance will be the issue - whether disguised or not by environmental "concerns".
Harper's after Quebec and Ontario without unduly upsetting the west. The Atlantic Region does not matter to him.
Liberal Minority
3 Green Party seats
small decrease in NDP support
Liberals rebound in Quebec
Bloc will increase seats
Conservatives will lose support in Quebec
Ontario wants the Liberals back as does BC
Harper will be dumped and the new Conservatives will face fallout and defections.

I think that even the Wizard of Id would have trouble making political predictions for 2007

Perhaps the only certain prediction is that the Federal parties will all spend a lot of time running around in circles screaming and shouting. Except for the Bloc the word "dithering" will probably best describe the actions of all of them.

I don't see anything important being done on Parliament Hill until after the next election. Right now I think that no Party wants an election. Neither the Conservatives, Liberals or NDP have anything to gain by going to the polls in 2007. That is, barring some major unforseen crisis.

I think that Mr. Harper got off on the wrong foot while he was still in the chute. Giving the Liberal Emerson a Cabinet post which could have been filled by any one of several Conservative MPs will come back to haunt him. Appointing Fortier meant the breaking of a clear promise, or at least what most Canadians believed was a promise, that only ELECTED MPs would be part of government.Then, not testing the appointment by having Fortier run in one of the byelections compounded the problem.

Fiscal imbalance, whatever that is, will become another albatross around Harper's neck. Out west this is already beginning to smell like another theft from Alberta and Saskatchewan in order to transfer money to the East. It will be interesting to watch Harper try to squirm out of this bit of political quicksand.

The Green Party could begin to seriously nip at the heels of the NDP, but I don't see them making serious inroads in 2007. The fact that they have done better in Alberta than in most provinces may indicate that people vote Green as a protest against the old line parties rather than as a positive vote for a perceived Green philosophy.

Afghanistan will become a big headache for the Libs and the Cons, because the tide is running in favour of bringing the troops home, which is something that neither lot want to do. We could see the Libs voting with the Cons to defeat a Bloc/NDP confidence motion on Afghanistan.

Health care will continue to be a hot topic but no one will have the guts to adress the actual problem....which is overutilisation of the system because it is FREE. Of course it isn't really free because most of us pay premiums in one way or another. We'll hear people crying about "wait times" and telling us that in the US there aren't any long wait times. Of course that's true, but the Devil is in the details. 40 million Americans who have no medical insurance never get on a waiting list because they don't have the money. Like my 85 year old cousin in Idaho who died of pneumonia under home care because he didn't have the money to get into a hospital.

We're probably in for a long run of minority governments, unless there is a complete meltdown of Bloc support in Quebec. I think that minority government is probably good for the country. It's a great leveller. The worst governments have been lopsided, like the Mulroney sweep.

I wonder when the West will wake up to the fact that Quebec seperation would be good for the West, in political terms, because it would effectively weaken the political stranglehold that Central Canada holds over the rest of the country?

The first part of 2007 will be a battle of the "steves" Harper and Dion. The traditionalist versus the modernist. Harper is already consolidating his religous right base and Dion is bandaging wounds of the recent leadership contest.

The strange bedfellows will be Layton seducing Harper on some social justice issues or environmental changes in exchange for some NDP budget support. What Jack did to Paul will happen again, this time with "Steve."

Dion and May will be the other tag team as they position the national conversation on enhanced environmental policy as being good for the economy now and in the future. The Bloc will be picking their spot to force an election based on what they will call the sham and shame of the fiscal imbalance solutions proferred (or not) by Harper's budget.

Charest will be as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs as he watch the drama on the Hill unfold or unravel and tries to adapt optimize his electoral outcomes. His mandate clock is running and he has to go to the polls this year.

Rhetoric and ranting, bombast and blather will be the political key words and that is just until the end of the first quarter when we will hopefully have an election call. We need stability and certainty in our government and governance sooner than later, especially with the volatility and change happening in the rest of the world.

In many respects Mr.Harper has performed quite well, but the volatility in Canadian politics
seems to be very much in play as yet.
If Mr.Harper can maintain his present standing which seems to be fairly positive than a Conservative majority however slim can be in the cards.
But Mr. Dion should also not be underestimated.He could surprise Canadians.

As you say, Nik, governments are usually architects of their own demise given time, loss of hearing and arrogance. I must say Harper has impressed me with his management skills and he has to be a first class political tactician-----certainly better than Martin. He has delived on most of his platform promises except possibly the most important one of health care guarantees which seems to be deliberately avoided today. Harper has visited the Canadian Arctic and Canadian Forces Base, Alert, which is more than any Prime Minister to date. His evolving foreign policy causes more division than cohesion within Canada. Afghanistan is rightly a United Nations responsibility and NOT a United States and NATO self proclaimed responsibility with Canada tagging along with United States. Harper has done things politically that are in conflict to what he said---"Scouts Honour"---that he would not do the latest being the rash of Conservative patronage appointments AFTER the pre-Christmas exodus from Parliament Hill thus doing an end run around his Accountability Act that takes effect January 1st. Hypocritical??? I would not be surprised by Harper if, before the next election, he fills the vacant Senate seats with Conservative APPOINTEES in-spite-of his much touted Senate reform, which I support. As I see it, politics, as we know it in Canada, is alive and well.

Obviously, being a minority government, some of the Reform/Conservative social issues, such as same sex marriage, have been surpressed until, possibly, the Harper government is in a majority position. Harper seems to be able to hold up his finger to see which way the wind is blowing then change his position accordingly, for example, climate change and Kyoto (and I do not mean Dion's dog). He is also fiddling with the constitutional issue-----here we go again ! Harper has done a commendable job in a minority position but I would be very concerned if he were in a majority position.

Since Canada was born, the governments have been either Conservative or Liberal with some of either stripe better than others. Most politicians are honest people and a few of every persuasion should be in jail for the abuse of their trusted positions. Thank God we have the vote and can avoid the extremes in governance and elect a government that SERVES the greatest majority of Canadians.

In 2007, with a minimal shift in voter allegiance, I believe we are likely to see another minority government and likely a Liberal government-----I would prefer the smallest of a majority government. Canada will give Dion a chance just as it gave Harper a chance and TRUST will be a major issue. The NDP and the Greens will fight it out for no gains and the Bloc is likely to lose some strength to the Liberals. Political life should be very interesting in Canada in 2007.

Predictions for next years election:
Libs 37% 143 seats
Cons 30% 96 seats
Bloc 11% 50 seats
NDP 12% 16 seats
Green 6% 1 seat
Ind 1% 2 seats
Other 1%

Everything is so regional in this country... I see the Cons sweeping in Alta again (28 seats up for grabs), Losing a couple seats in BC (36 seats) and maybe a seat each in Sask (14) and Manitoba(14 seats). The Cons are pretty much toast in Quebec. They will be lucky to win a seat there this time. I don't see much change in Atlantic Canada and the North, either. The majority of these seats went Liberal last time out of 35 seats. (NB, 10 seats, Newf, 7 seats, NS, 11 seats, PEI, 4 seats, the north, 3 seats). A couple of seats will likely go Liberal from the NDP there. This link will help the regional breakdowns.

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/

The big battleground where voters shift to Lib/Con the most is in Ontario where 106 seats are up for grabs out of 308. Quebec is also a battleground with 75 seats. The Bloc will take between 45 - 50 seats, so I split the difference, gave them 48, one independent should get relected there (King Arthur), and that leaves 26 seats up for grabs for the Libs and Cons of which I would be surprised if the Cons won more than 3 seats. Even bribes won't help the Cons at this point in Quebec.

So it comes down to Ontario, of which the NDP will be lucky to keep Jack Layton's riding and the previous split between the Libs/Cons last time will, if the polls don't change (and I don't expect that they will with Dion there now), will get high 40%'s in terms of popular vote and leave's a 2 to 1 split or better between 106 seats for the Libs over the Cons.

So there you have it. The Libs gain 6 to 8 seats out west out of 92 seats total (with, say 5 from the NDP), gain 13 seats in Quebec from the previous 10 they already hold, hold firm in Atlantic Canada and the North, and steal 19 seats from the Cons and 2 seats from the NDP in Ontario by my calculations, moving from 102 incumbant seats to 143 seats elected for a strong minority government.

Let it be said that people do vote traditionally... except for Ontario. In Ontario, they go back and forth between Lib/Con like no other province. For the Libs to form a majority, they would need to have 55%+ of the popular vote. Not going to happen, but they should hit the high 40%'s in pop vote. Unless something unforseeable happens, like another old Lib scandal, a Dion collapse, or maybe another 30 or 40 dead soldiers over the winter, all the walk and talk is unlikely to change these numbers.

What does all this mean for the NDP? A dramatic shift in power in two senses. They will shrink by nearly half, but they will HOLD THE ALL IMPORTANT BALANCE OF POWER which I think is bad, good, and appropriate for the NDP. Its the medicine wakeup call they need for the future to come. :-)

And rate Harper? Well, he's paving the way for U.S. multinationals to buy out Canada. He was an international embarrassment to this nation this year with his hot air bill and comments on Israel/Lebanon, and I'm quite biased as it is against Harper. Simply put, I think Harper's a U.S. puppet republican plant to begin with, so am I going to praise him? He runs a good Con. Is he good for Canada? Harper is an NCC U.S. puppet plant multinational sellout. Praise for Harper won't be coming from someone like myself who knows what he's all about.

2007 will be a very interesting year in Canadian politics.

The first question is whether there will be a federal election. There is a small window for one in the late winter or early spring. Otherwise I think the Quebec and Ontario elections (and perhaps elections in Manitoba and Saskatchewan) will squeeze the possible federal election out.

In terms of the parties, generally I think the Conservatives have done a good job. While their environmental record is very bad and their bungling of the income trust file may erode some of their support, I think Canadians who voted CP last time will show up in their favour again (except perhaps in Quebec).

As for the Liberals, I think their convention can be rated as a huge success. The media gave them a boost with all the coverage and Dion appears to be a leader that Canadians could vote for. The polls thus far show a bump in Liberal support (but then again, a SES poll hasn't come out yet.)

The real loser of 2007 will be Jack Layton. I hear rumblings from within his own party that he's becoming stale. The media basically ignores him and the reason to vote NDP in 2006 will not be there in 2007/2008. During the next election, Dion will pull a Layton and ask New Democrats to lend him their support to stop a Conservative re-election. When the debate polarizes around the Liberals and the Conservatives, the NDP will be squeezed out. There's no way they sweep Hamilton again and they will loose some of their Toronto and BC seats. I suspect the NDP caucus will be reduced to maybe 12-15 seats and to about 12% of the vote. Remember what happened in 1993?

As for the Greens, I really like what I'm hearing/seeing/reading from Elizabeth May. For the first time, the Greens have a dynamic leader who is a politician, not a policy wonk. She will pull votes away from all the parties, especially the NDP (Re: London North Centre).

The real wild card, in my opinion, for 2007 will be the Quebec provincial election. If Charest is re-elected - bonus for Harper. If the PQ wins, then the next federal election may be one centred on the environment and national unity - two issues that play into the hands of Dion and not Harper. The ballot question could be: Who do you trust to keep Canada united? Dion - the long-time federalist from Quebec, or Harper - neo-Conservative from Alberta. If this is the case, Ontario becomes the trump card and federalist support in Quebec rallies to Dion.

Either way, I think this is going to be an exciting year. As a student of Canadian politics - it doesn't get much better.

Harper has done well in the past year despite the noise of the media and their attempts to paint him as incompetent or a neophyte. It is obvious the media in Canada love their Liberals and they will say or do anything to ensure that Liberals are returned to power in the next election. However, most people, including the media, continue to underestimate Mr. Harper and he will pull together an envionmental package that the NDP will support. That will remove the environment from the next election. The war in Afghanistan is another issue but Mr. Dion is fuzzy on what he would do about it. It was his party that sent the troops to Kandahar the most dangerous province in Afghanistan. Canadians deserve to know what Dion means when you talks about withdrawing with honour. That sounds like waffling to me. Dion's environmental platform looks much like typical Liberal talk. No real action. He talks about tax incentives, a sustainable economy etc. Yet the technology is not in place and it will take time to get the right technologies. Is he prepared to destroy the oilsands, the automotive industry, the power grid in Ontario? We need to make sure Dion is forced to say in clear, unequivocal terms what he would do and to assess whether those actions would really reduce GHG's to the extent expected i.e. meet Kyoto targets. The one thing about 2007 it will be exciting and with two intelligent men running the major parties I feel sorry for Taliban Jack (Layton) in the next election.

I agree the situation is still too volatile for a majority government to emerge. But Harper, if there is an election, will be re-elected - and the Conservatives will pick up seats in doing so. Dion will go down with Blake as a Liberal Leader who did not achieve office. Layton will go after the next election. And the majors will steal enough from the Greens to keep them at bay. As for the BQ, they will continue to hold a majority of Québec seats - but will be fading slowly - faster if the PQ fails to defeat Charest (a likely outcome, especially if Harper removes the feds from a joint area or an area of "federal incursion").