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Tories and Grits Gripped in a Tie (Completed February 4th 2010)

255 comments Latest by RonaldODowd

The latest Nanos tracking has the Conservatives dropping in the new year with a dead heat between the Tories and the Liberals. The Conservatives continue to lead in the Prairies and British Columbia but are statistically tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, Ontario. The Bloc Quebecois leads in Quebec at 33% followed by the Liberals at 29% and the Conservatives at 22%, the NDP at 11% and the Greens at 5%.

Although the Harper Conservatives ended the year with a comfortable 10 point margin, their advantage in the ballot box has all but evaporated.


Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between January 29th and February 4th 2010. A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20, for 783 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Margins may be larger for smaller samples.

Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between December 10th and December 13th, 2009.

National Committed Voters Only (n=783)

Conservative 35.6% (-3.9)

Liberal 33.9% (+3.7)

NDP 16.4% (-2.3)

BQ 8.5% (+0.8)

Green 5.6% (+1.6)

Note: Undecided 21.9% (-3.8) of total voters surveyed

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

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While it is disappointing to see the numbers for the Conservatives drop the fact... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 08 Feb 08:57

There are many ways to look at the numbers Nik like Conservatives are only 4.4% ... more

4Logie (Ontario) 08 Feb 09:51

It is interesting to note that there are still 22% of undecideds. I wonder how t... more

neveratory (suspended) (Ontario) 08 Feb 08:31

Hello Ronald: Yes, that is some progress. As the Office of the Prime Minist... more

Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Feb 22:40

Ronald: Our only hope is that the worm will turn and, like you, I rather doubt t... more

Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Feb 23:00

Ronald: Did not both the Liberals and NDP support the budget???? They could ... more

Tom Good (British Columbia) 08 Feb 23:31


neveratory (suspended)

It is interesting to note that there are still 22% of undecideds. I wonder how that compares to a normal pre election poll.

With the MOE being what it is in a poll this size it contineus to reflect the rise of the Liberals and one would presume the same MOE has the quebec results slightly skewered unless Nik is picking up some signals that the bloc is finally receding in popularity, something that is overdue to happen.

[updated Mon Feb 08 08:31:22 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 08:31

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While it is disappointing to see the numbers for the Conservatives drop the fact is it is a reaction to the prorogation issue that is causing the drop. The Libs have done nothing to cause their numbers to go up and particularly Iffy who is still seen as a weak leader.

The good thing is that Iffy is now beginning to talk and that will turn out well for the Conservatives. His gambit on abortion and national daycare will prove to be flash points for the electorate. Of course the Libs forget that they have many anti abortion caucus members and it could spell trouble for the Iffy within the caucus.

I suspect that with the Olympics coming and parliament working through till the summer break that the polls for the Conservatives will begin to turn around.

It's interesting to note that the prorogation issue was a media driven issue. The torqued headlines and outrageous columns accusing Mr. Harper of all manner of things caused Canadians who probably could care less about proragation to take notice.

Not an column or editorial was written when Chretien prorogued the House for four months trying to avoid the adscam scandal and giving Martin time to form his new government. Double standard within the lame street media? You bet.

[updated Mon Feb 08 08:57:05 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 08:57

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I haven't seen anything definitive in the polls for quite a while. There's a small volatility that swings with every "event" that takes place. It responds to the spin that a particular party gives to political news item. One time it's one party, a few days later it's the other. usually it's not something that's very significant but the party makes it seem so to the unsophisticated voter. A few days later and it all dissipates until something comes up. There are no solid trends. The two leading parties each have a dedicated one third of the electorate. It's that small group that changes the poll results from time to time.

My own view is; when are Canadians going to wake up and realize that this government is going nowhere? I didn't think we would accept being stuck in neutral for so long. I guess most Canadians are so conservative as to accept mediocrity and are unwilling to try something new that would set us on a more progressive path.

[updated Mon Feb 08 09:37:41 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 09:37

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New_party_logo_thumb CENTRAL PARTY CANADA

The undecided numbers of 21.9% is very noticeable, perhaps if this trend continues, where the Conservatives do not regain their previous position ahead of the Liberals and if the Liberals cannot take over the lead, this would be an indication that there is room for another federal political party such as the Central Party of Canada. Their web site is They indent to register federally and run candidates in the next federal election.

[updated Mon Feb 08 09:47:17 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 09:47

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There are many ways to look at the numbers Nik like Conservatives are only 4.4% from majority.The prorogation dip was 100% due to the media.

[updated Mon Feb 08 09:51:47 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 09:51

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Stop equalization

Agreed! It is sad to see the polarization and bias in the media. The CBC and the Red Star have been at war with the Conservatives for many years now. Whatever happenid to objective and balanced journalism??

[updated Mon Feb 08 10:09:04 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 10:09


Stop equalization,

Whatever happened to objective and balanced federal governments??? When are they finally going to distribute those "We Hate The Press Gallery Ties"???!!!

[updated Mon Feb 08 22:05:23 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 22:05

morpher (Suspended)

The media is just reporting the facts that Harper is covering up his corruption and lies. It is obvious now to canadians he is dishonest and no silly talking points about a dishonest media is going to change that. It just makes the CPC and Harper look more desperate and dishonest than they already are.

[updated Mon Feb 08 10:22:05 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 10:22



The "other" and original Captain Smith said just about the same thing: look we are only a thousand yards from that nice iceberg.

[updated Mon Feb 08 22:02:42 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 22:02


No! The reason that there was a drop in support for Harper is because most Canadians believe in democracy. When people in a district elect a member to represent them. They expect that member express their wishes in parliament. When a minority of members block him /her from doing so. That is undemocratic. People don't like that. Otherwise what is the use of electing someone to representative them.

Surely we don't allow the media to make political decisions for us!!!!

[updated Tue Feb 09 08:23:53 -0500 2010]

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09 Feb 08:23

morpher (Suspended)

Harper the cover up king.

Dean Beeby

Ottawa — The Canadian Press
Published on Sunday, Feb. 07, 2010 8:20PM EST

Last updated on Sunday, Feb. 07, 2010 8:59PM EST

A federal cabinet minister's aide killed the release of a sensitive report requested under freedom-of-information in a case eerily similar to a notorious incident in the sponsorship scandal.

A bureaucrat had to make a mad dash to the department's mailroom last July to retrieve the report at the last minute under orders from a senior aide to then-Public Works minister Christian Paradis.

The order was issued by Sebastien Togneri, parliamentary affairs director to Mr. Paradis, in a terse email after he had been told the file was already on its way to The Canadian Press, which had requested it.

"Well unrelease it," Mr. Togneri said in a July 27 email to a senior official in the department's Access to Information section. "What's the point of asking for my opinion if you're just going to release it!"

The document was an annual report on Public Works' massive

[updated Mon Feb 08 10:29:33 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 10:29

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morpher (Suspended)

Harper the cover up king now lets down the world with his dishonesty.

How Canada let the world down
AECL says isotope-producing reactor will be out of service until spring; medical officials call delay ‘a disaster,' fear even longer wait

From Friday's Globe and Mail

Last updated on Monday, Feb. 08, 2010 7:44AM EST

Canada, relied upon as a leader in isotope production, is seen as having reneged on its responsibility to the medical world.

The isotope-producing NRU reactor at Chalk River, Ont. will stay shut down until the spring of 2010, at least – marking the third time Crown corporation Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. has pushed back its estimated restart date since the aging reactor was taken offline in late May when a heavy water leak was discovered.

The news was met with frustration yesterday, and a growing sense among the international medical community that Canada has bungled its nuclear file.

[updated Mon Feb 08 10:31:04 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 10:31

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General Overreach

The real question is, with the Conservatives dropping and the Liberals rising, can the public accept Ignatieff as a Prime Minister?
I think the Liberals would have to do better in the leadership catagory, and that would mean a different leader.

[updated Mon Feb 08 14:11:23 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 14:11

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The 22% undecided seems low when asking for a political party without a prompt list.

Out of the 22% how many are really undecided and how many have no clue what parties there are?

A 78% voter turn out would be outstanding.

Where do the people who answer Obama or Democrats go? If someone answers Obama does the interviewer offer Liberal or NDP as a clarifier? If the respondent answers Sarah Pallin or Bush does the talk go to CPC? or all these counted as undecided.... or thrown away from the sample?

[updated Mon Feb 08 14:28:03 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 14:28

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What is really interesting are all the comments on here that avoid the real issue and try to spin it away from the responsibility that lies with Harpers Conservatives and their proroguation mistake. I see comments on here deflecting to past Liberal proroguations (which for some reason failed to bring protests in the streets like Harper's did), I see comments insisting on pointing out the undecided numbers simply to show the Liberals are not gaining, I see comments which even spin the Conservative numbers into a positive, which are all clearly coming from Conservatives or Conservative-voters who want to avoid taking responsibility for what was clearly a huge mistake. Let's call a spade a spade here. Harper prorogued, Canadians are mad, Conservatives are paying the price for it, Harper shouldn't have done it. That's all there is to it. To the Conservatives on here cluttering up the comments sections with their partisan rhetoric I say: stop trying to justify that which you clearly know was wrong, take some responsibility for your party's actions by accepting the declining poll numbers, and lets move on already. The numbers don't lie - it was a wrong to prorogue!

[updated Mon Feb 08 14:35:01 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 14:35

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Tom Good

Although the Conservative's overall programme of governance has met acceptance with the electorate generally, their legal tactics for staying in power have begun to rust. They have managed to bend the procedures and twist expected but unwritten traditions to a new level in the Westminster type of democracy that we supposedly enjoy. I do not know that the Liberals have come up with anything new and exciting but believe the great unwashed and uncommitted centre vote is shifting a bit. If Dion made sure Harper was elected, then, possibly, Harper is returning the favour and trying to elevate Ignatieff in the polls.

Unfortunately, the root of all these problems in governance style IS the too numerous (525++ bodies now)UNELECTED "intelligentsia" in the Office of the Prime Minister who devise "what is needed"---like castor oil----by the Canadian citizenry and use the ELECTED House of Commons as their "echo chamber" for their programmes / tactics. Unfortunate, also, is that the Liberals show no intention to limit the budget for the growing cancer of the Prime Minister's Office as they hope to be government some day, which they will be, and they do not wish to have their "hands tied" in this new governance style that Trudeau started and Harper has perfected.

What sheep we have elected to the House of Commons ! ! !

[updated Mon Feb 08 15:59:07 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 15:59

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rsharp 2 (suspended again)

Some of the the unknowns:

1. Which opposition party will vote for the budget. It depends on deal-making going on right now.

2. Whether the Libs have peaked in their comeback since Mr. Harper's disastrous prorogation.

3. How the opposition parties will handle the Afghan detainee issue. The Cons are right now in a contempt of Parliament situation

4. hollinm is right, the economy is foremost. Unemployment is the biggest issue and the Cons are very vulnerable on point. They can't even tell us how many jobs were saved/created as a result of the stimulus package.

5. What Canadians think, right now, about whether there should be an election.

6. What gaffes the Cons commit between now and whenever the polls become clear.

7. The scheming taking place right now among the opposition parties.

In other words, who the hell knows?

[updated Mon Feb 08 16:03:57 -0500 2010]

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08 Feb 16:03

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Only Jack Knows For Sure.

Jack said at a press conference that he's feeling pretty good. Glad to hear it. Hopefully, his treatment will go fine, without any hitches.

That brings us to the big imponderable: will the NDP caucus aggressively challenge this government or will they prefer to stand down in the spring because of Jack's health?

This is one I can't call.

[updated Tue Feb 09 10:12:13 -0500 2010]

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09 Feb 10:12

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rsharp 2 (suspended again)

On moderation. I know Nik is sensitive to discrimination against religious types. I posted this a few minutes ago on CBC,ca/Politics:

buddhawest (rightly) complains about's inability to apply its own submission policies (11:35). Like refusing to post or remove comments that advocate hate and violence, personal attacks.... that sort if stuff.

Heck. Go to any CBC story on terrorist attacks. The anti-Muslim vitriol is sad, sad, sad. Countless posters say bomb them. Nuke them.

That's advocating murder against innocent civilians but lets them up/stay.

[updated Tue Feb 09 12:53:13 -0500 2010]

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09 Feb 12:53

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This video is doing the rounds for its utter disgrace. Harper is tanking for this very reason.

It'll turn your stomach when you watch the bold faced lies.

[updated Tue Feb 09 20:59:31 -0500 2010]

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09 Feb 20:59

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Just Think Of The Game Show!

Next time bureaucrats get into a little spot of trouble regarding Access to Information requests thanks to pesky ministerial exempt staff, just take a pill and think of Reach For The Top.

Quite obviously that habit is rather prevelant in some circles. Personally, I like the way Chris Selley summed it up in the "Big Blue Bible":

"The government has made vaguely reassuring noises. "Due diligence [on Access to Information requests] is and should be done by public servants and not political staff," Dimitri Soudas, Mr. Harper's spokesman, told The Canadian Press. "The process ... should be followed and respected by all ... It applies to everybody across government (including) political offices." Sadly, there's little reason to believe he means it. Asked whether ministers had been explicitly told not to meddle, or if the staff involved would face sanctions, he replied: "I don't comment on internal matters."

Perhaps in a month of Sundays...

[updated Wed Feb 10 14:29:30 -0500 2010]

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10 Feb 14:29

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Zachary Smith

It would appear that the numbers are not very good from Ekos and Nanos, judging from the absense of comments by the left on the actual poll numbers and the direction that they are indicating.

The most recent poll (Ekos) shows that the Liberals have dropped in just one week from 31.9% to 29.0% that is a drop of almost 3.0% in this weeks poll and it is interesting that the Liberals ended the week at just 27.3% on Feb 9th and the Nanos poll has the Conservatives with a 2.0% lead.

It does now have the appearance that as Canadians become better informed on the issue, they are now dismissing the Liberal and media talking points and are concentrating on the truth and that is starting to be reflected as shown in the two most recent polls, Ekos and Nanos were the Conservatives are now leading the Liberals again.

And it would seem that the more that Ignatieff is out there talking, the lower the Liberal numbers go and that Canadians are requesting that the Liberals provide alternatives and public policy and they have nothing to talk about.

[updated Thu Feb 11 09:43:24 -0500 2010]

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11 Feb 09:43

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rsharp 2 (suspended again)

Environomics today gives the Libs a 4 point lead. A 15 point swing in less than 2 months. Wow!

[updated Fri Feb 12 19:45:54 -0500 2010]

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12 Feb 19:45

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