The latest Nanos Leadership Index tracking indicates that, among decided voters, the Conservatives still hold a solid nine point lead over the Liberals.
Key takeaways include that the Conservative ballot support has not diminished in the face of controversial issues in December such as the Afghan detainee issue or the focus on the environment. For the Liberals, although perceptions of Ignatieff have softened it has not led to a negative fallout in Liberal ballot support.
Also of note, the percentage of undecided voters is unusually high in this specific wave of Nanos tracking. This may be indicative of a number of things including greater voter volatility and general public discontent with Canada’s current state of political discourse. For the Conservatives, the higher undecided should temper their confidence in their current ballot box advantage.
Impressions of Ignatieff continues to decline since he assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. Michael Ignatieff’s current overall Leadership score (39.0 points) represents another 15.8 point drop in the past quarter of leadership tracking placing him behind both Stephen Harper (94.6 points) and New Democrat leader Jack Layton (41.2 points).
Of note, even with Stephen Harper’s commanding leadership advantage, many Canadians are increasingly hesitant to believe any one federal leader can be trusted, has vision or is competent. Undecided opinions of Canadians have increased in all three categories of the Leadership Index. Of note, in the ‘Best Vision’ category, all leaders dropped and the ‘none/undecided’ category increased by 10 points.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website. You can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between November 7th and November 10th, 2009.
National Decided Voters Only (n=745)
Conservative 39.5% (-0.3)
Liberal 30.2% (+0.2)
NDP 18.7% (+2.1)
BQ 7.7% (-1.2)
Green 4.0% (NC)
Undecided 25.7% (+8.2) of all voters surveyed
Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between September 3rd and September 11th, 2009.
The Most Trustworthy Leader
Stephen Harper: 29.3% (-2.0)
Michael Ignatieff: 10.9% (-3.1)
Jack Layton: 16.4% (+2.7)
Gilles Duceppe: 6.3% (-1.5)
Elizabeth May: 4.6% (-3.4)
None of them/Undecided: 32.6% (+7.4)
The Most Competent Leader
Stephen Harper: 35.3% (+0.8)
Michael Ignatieff: 13.3% (-7.1)
Jack Layton: 10.8% (+0.2)
Gilles Duceppe: 5.7% (+1.1)
Elizabeth May: 2.3% (NC)
None of them/Undecided: 32.6% (+8.7)
The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future
Stephen Harper: 30.0% (-2.3)
Michael Ignatieff: 14.8% (-5.6)
Jack Layton: 14.0% (-0.6)
Gilles Duceppe: 3.4% (-0.6)
Elizabeth May: 2.8% (-0.9)
None of them/Undecided: 34.9% (+10.0)
Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper: 94.6 (-5.1)
Michael Ignatieff: 39.0 (-15.8)
Jack Layton: 41.2 (+2.3)
Gilles Duceppe: 15.4 (-3.2)
Elizabeth May: 9.7 (-4.3)
What do you think?
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard